<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/indias-inflation-rate-increases-to-071-in-november-but-the-rupee-continues-to-bleed-20251212/">India's inflation rate increases to 0.71% in November, but the Rupee continues to bleed</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/interest-rate-expectations-turn-more-hawkish-for-most-major-central-banks-except-the-fed-20251212/">Interest rate expectations turn more hawkish for most major central banks except the Fed</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/gold-extends-gains-after-key-technical-breakout-putting-all-time-highs-in-sight-20251212/">Gold extends gains after key technical breakout, putting all-time highs in sight</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stocks/nifty-50-recovers-some-losses-on-dovish-powell-but-its-not-out-of-the-woods-just-yet-20251212/">Nifty 50 recovers some losses on dovish Powell, but it's not out of the woods just yet</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/the-british-pound-falls-on-weaker-than-expected-gdp-data-sealing-the-case-for-a-rate-cut-20251212/">The British Pound falls on weaker than expected GDP data sealing the case for a rate cut</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/Orders/fx-option-expiries-for-12-december-10am-new-york-cut-20251212/">FX option expiries for 12 December 10am New York cut</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/what-are-the-main-events-for-today-20251212/">What are the main events for today?</a></li></ul><p>It's been a very light session in terms of data releases and newsflow. The main highlight was the UK GDP which missed expectations and weighed on the pound. Traders added to BoE rate cuts bets, increasing the total easing by the end of 2026 from 57 bps to 61 bps.</p><p>We also got the final CPI readings for Germany, France and Spain but there were no surprises there as the data came out in line with the preliminary figures.</p><p>The most notable mover in the session was gold. The precious metal continues to rally after yesterday's key technical breakout, and it's now getting very close to the all-time high set in October. The fall in real yields following Powell's dovish tone is a good tailwind.</p><p>In other markets, US equities continue to mostly range, while maintainig a bullish bias. The bear-steepening in US Treasuries has resumed after Powell's press conference, with the 10Y-2Y spread close to breaking the April 2025 highs.</p><p>The US dollar recovered some of yesterday's losses, although it looks more like a technical pullback given the lack of catalysts today. We might even see some pullbacks before the NFP given the expected high volatility.</p><p>In the American session, we don't have anything on the agenda other than a couple of Fed speakers. Wish you all a nice weekend!</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p>KEY POINTS:</p><ul><li>India's inflation rate Y/Y increased to 0.71% vs 0.70% expected in November</li><li>The prior release saw inflation falling to a record low of 0.25%</li><li>The RBI's inflation target is 4% with a +/-2% tolerance band</li><li>Inflation remains far below the central bank's target</li></ul><p>INFLATION REPORT:</p><p>India's inflation rate increased to 0.71% in November after falling to 0.25% in October. The <a href="https://www.mospi.gov.in/latest-releases" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation</a> noted that the increase in headline inflation and food inflation during the month of November was mainly attributed to increase in inflation of Vegetables, Egg, Meat and fish, Spices and Fuel and light.</p><p>Food makes up the largest share of India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket (typically around 46%). This means that swings in food inflation influence significantly overall inflation. A government review might lower slightly the weight in the upcoming revision in January 2026.</p><p>MARKET REACTION:</p><p>The INR strengthened a bit following the release but quickly gave back the gains and extended the losses against the US dollar as the <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CIPuZN0R/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">USD/INR</a> pair continues to push into new record highs.</p><p><a href="https://investinglive.com/EconomicCalendar" target="_blank" rel="follow">Next week</a>, we have the US NFP and CPI reports. Right now, the market is leaning on the dovish side for the Fed, so a surprisingly strong employment report should trigger a hawkish repricing and give the US dollar a boost.</p><p>The big picture trend remains heavily skewed to the upside and probably only a major positive breakthrough on the US-India trade front could give the Indian Rupee a strong short-term boost.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p>In the European session, the main highlight will be the UK GDP, although we will also get the final inflation readings for Germany, France and Spain. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks.</p><p>The UK October GDP is expected at +0.1% vs -0.1% prior, while the Y/Y estimate is seen at +1.4% vs +1.1% prior. The data is not going to change anything for the BoE, with the central bank widely expected to cut at the upcoming meeting following soft labour market data and benign inflation figures.</p><p>The only thing that could stop the BoE from cutting is notably strong employment and inflation data next week coming out just before the central bank's decision on Thursday. The market is pricing a 90% probability of a cut at the upcoming meeting and a total of 58 bps of easing by the end of 2026 (one more cut). </p><p>In the American session, we don't have anything on the agenda other than a couple of Fed speakers. As a reminder, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected at the recent meeting and signalled that the bar for further rate cuts would be higher. The central bank left the interest rate projections unchanged but downgraded inflation forecasts and upgraded growth forecasts. </p><p>Fed Chair Powell was expected to sound as neutral as possible and stress data-dependency, but he leant on a more dovish side by downplaying the inflation risk and emphasising labour market weakness. The US dollar weakened on his comments and extended the losses further yesterday.</p><p>Central bank speakers:</p><ul><li>13:00 GMT/08:00 ET - Fed's Paulson (dovish - voter in 2026)</li><li>13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - Fed's Hammack (hawkish - voter in 2026)</li><li>15:35 GMT/10:35 ET - Fed's Goolsbee (hawkish - non voter in 2026)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-on-venezuela-its-going-to-be-starting-on-land-pretty-soon-20251211/">Trump on Venezuela: It's going to be starting on land pretty soon</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-probably-only-one-winner-in-ai-china-or-the-usa-20251211/">Trump: Probably only one winner in AI, China or the USA</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/japan-october-industrial-production-15-yy-vs-16-prelim-20251212/">Japan October industrial production +1.5% y/y vs +1.6% prelim</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/canadas-carney-inches-closer-to-a-majority-as-conservative-switches-parties-20251211/">Canada's Carney inches closer to a majority as Conservative switches parties</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/magnitude-67-earthquake-leads-to-1m-tsunami-in-japan-20251212/">Magnitude 6.7 earthquake leads to 1m tsunami in Japan</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/gpt-52-is-looking-like-another-leap-forward-20251211/">GPT-5.2 is looking like another leap forward</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold down $15 to $4267</li><li>US 10-year yields up 1.6 bps to 4.15%</li><li>WTI crude up 44-cents to $58.04</li><li>Nikkei up 0.7%</li><li>GBP leads, JPY lags</li></ul><p>Flows were light to wrap up the week in Asia but stocks were lively. The Nikkei gapped higher at the open and continued above 51,000 and a test of the monthly high. It failed though and there was some profit taking as the 1.7% gain was cut in half.</p><p>Gold also saw some selling after the big rally in US trade. It's under some mild pressure while silver is flat after hitting a record earlier.</p><p>The FX market was struggling to find a reason to get going during a light day of news flow.</p><p>The most-meaningful headline was Trump talking about an escalation to ground attacks in Venezuela. That's led to some moderate bids in crude but had little effect on the overall risk mood. It's something to keep an eye on.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was +2.0%</li><li>Prelim was +1.6%</li><li>Capacity utilization +3.3% vs +2.5% prelim </li></ul><p>Japanese factory data this week has been firm, showing that the trade war isn't a problem so far.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>An earthquake shook up the Pacific coast of Japan approximately 130 km NE of Kuji.</p><p>There is no damage expected but a tsunami warning has been issued.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p data-path-to-node="3">The US dollar is down on most fronts this year but it came after years of gains. The team at Scotiabank says don't get too comfortable with USD longs as the worst is yet to come.</p><p data-path-to-node="4">In their Focus On 2026 outlook, Scotia’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret are sticking to their guns: they see broad USD weakness playing out through 2026 and into 2027.</p><p data-path-to-node="7">The core thesis here is simple: Divergence.</p><p data-path-to-node="8">Scotia expects the Fed to cut rates significantly—taking the target rate down to 3% by the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, other major central banks are expected to make few policy changes or even tighten. </p><p data-path-to-node="9">It's the classic rate differential trade and erodes the two pillars that have held the dollar up for so long: higher relative growth and those juicy yield differentials. We’ve been hearing about the "end of US exceptionalism" for a while, but Scotia thinks the real pain point for the USD hits in Q2/Q3 of 2026 as the US labour market slows down and the Fed stays dovish.</p><p data-path-to-node="15">The Euro and Yen: The quiet climbers</p><p data-path-to-node="17">For the euro, the ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged, which should boost EUR/USD higher. Scotia is targeting a medium-term move into the 1.22-1.24 range (spot at 1.17).</p><p data-path-to-node="18">For the yen, with the BoJ expected to tighten modestly in 2026, the currency finally gets some love. The forecast sends USDJPY down to 140 by late 2026 and 130 by the end of 2027. (spot at 155.68)</p><p data-path-to-node="10">The Contrarian Trade: Buy the Loonie</p><p data-path-to-node="11">If you’re looking for a non-consensus trade, this is it. The market is overwhelmingly short CAD right now, but Scotia sees a massive reversal incoming.</p><p data-path-to-node="12">While the Fed is cutting to 3%, Scotia expects the Bank of Canada to actually start hiking rates in the second half of 2026.</p><p data-path-to-node="14">They see the spread between the Fed and the BoC—which is currently a massive 175 bps—collapsing to just 25 bps by the end of next year. As that compression happens, their forecast puts USDCAD to 1.35 by year-end 2026, dropping to 1.30 by 2027. (spot at 1.3775)</p><p data-path-to-node="19">Emerging Markets: Caution on the Peso</p><p data-path-to-node="20">For the carry traders, the outlook on the Mexican Peso (MXN) is a lot less rosy. Scotiabank is bearish here despite the yield.</p><p data-path-to-node="21">Why? Banxico is cutting rates just as volatility is picking up. The narrowing spread with the US, combined with trade uncertainty around the CUSMA review, makes the risk-reward look poor. They see USDMXN grinding higher to 19.00 next year and 20.40 by 2027.</p><p data-path-to-node="22">Scotiabank FX Forecasts at a Glance</p><p data-path-to-node="23">Here are the key levels they are watching for the majors by December 2026:</p><ul><li>EURUSD: 1.21 </li><li>USDCAD: 1.35 </li><li>USDJPY: 140</li><li> GBPUSD: 1.38 </li><li>USDMXN: 19.00</li></ul><p data-path-to-node="26">If Scotia is right, the "higher for longer" US yields trade is dead, and the rotation out of the dollar is the big macro play for 2026.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Leaked internal benchmarks for GPT-5.2 "Thinking" have been posted by Sam Altman, and quite frankly, the numbers are ridiculous. We aren't talking about incremental gains here. </p><p>For some reference:</p><ul><li><p data-path-to-node="8,0,0">AIME 2025: 100.0%. It solved it. This is a big math test and it means that competition math is effectively "completed" for this model.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,1,0">ARC-AGI-2: This is the big one for the AGI purists. It jumped from 17.6% (GPT-5.1) to 52.9%. That is a massive leap in abstract reasoning and generalization—historically the Achilles' heel of LLMs.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,2,0">GDPval (Knowledge Work): This is the metric that matters for the economy. It flew from 38.8% to 70.9%.</p></li></ul><p>It's also worth noting that this highlights that scaling and reasoning are both advancing as this is a model that uses maximum reasoning efforts. Lately, it looked like OpenAI got caught with its pants down because Gemini scaled and it worked but this shows that reasoning is doing things that looked impossible.</p><p>For users, the thinking models aren't that popular because they're slow for every day tasks to replace Google but for innovation, this is huge. What the dual-releases show is that both tracks are still working. Ultimately, there will be a 'best of both' that unlocks something beyond this.</p><p>This is also big for the economy. GDPval tests well-specified knowledge work tasks spanning 44 occupations.</p><p>At the moment, this release is being rolled out and we're going to see if the use cases match the numbers. What we aren't seeing is what the lesser models do. This release includes 5.2 Thinking but also GPT‑5.2 Instant and Pro.</p><p>What OpenAI says:</p><p>"Overall, GPT‑5.2 brings significant improvements in general intelligence, long-context understanding, agentic tool-calling, and vision—making it better at executing complex, real-world tasks end-to-end than any previous model."</p><p>That's exciting but this screenshot is also making the rounds:</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>When Mark Carney pulled off an improbable election win this year, he didn't earn a majority in parliament. That means his government could fall at any time, but he came very close.</p><p>The Liberals won 169 seats, just three short of a 172 seat majority. In early November, Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont crossed the floor to join the Liberals. That got them to 170. Just now, Michael Ma (MP for Markham-Unionville) announced that he is switching from the Conservatives to the Liberals.</p><p>That gets them to 171, just one seat shy.</p><p>There are rumors they are courting others and if they get there, that will give Carney enough votes to survive another three years, at minimum. Even without that, now he just needs the support of one other voter to get any legislation passed.</p><p>This move will also raise the stakes in any future by-elections as that could flip the numbers.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Will make a signing related to AI</li><li>Forget trying to get approval for 50 different states</li><li>Sacks: Order gives tools to push back on most onerous state regulations</li><li>We are taking steps for a single national standard on AI</li></ul><p>The idea of dominance is that AI will be iterative, so the latest generation of AI designs the following one and that also maps to the physical world. I have a hard time believing that it won't be diffuse as the stakes are so high and the information nearly impossible to protect. Moreover, the world can only accept change so quickly.</p><p>At the same time, there is a limit in real world applications. Once a car learns to drive a car, it's learned. Maybe you can refine it and make it more efficient but in time -- and probably not a long time -- others catch up. Perhaps you could 'dominate' for a time but only if you're essentially giving it away or using some kind of regulator capture that's hard to push across borders.</p><p>Moreover, I continue to believe that the black swan of this century will be the collapse of the intellectual property system.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>The US is clearly trying to provoke some kind of conflict, if not a war. Trump wants regime change in Venezuela for some reason. </p><p>That said, Trump likes to make threats so he could be trying to bluff Maduro into leaving the country.</p><p>Yesterday, the US seized an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan crude.</p><p>On Ukraine, Trump said he thought they were 'very close' to a deal. Again, it's hard to take what he says literally and get excited about peace in Ukraine or war in Venezuela.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p data-path-to-node="4">After the fireworks from the Australian jobs report yesterday, the schedule for the Friday Asian session (Thursday evening US time) is looking decidedly thin. We are scraping the bottom of the barrel for data, so don't expect too many idiosyncratic catalysts to drive the majors.</p><p data-path-to-node="5">The action kicks off early in the session at 02:00 GMT with a look at the Australian consumer via the LSEG IPSOS PCSI. While not as closely watched as the Westpac sentiment numbers, it gives us another data point on how the Aussie consumer is holding up under the weight of current rates. The prior read sat at 52.82.</p><p data-path-to-node="6">Later on, while Tokyo is lunching, we get the final reads on Japanese Industrial Production at 04:30 GMT.</p><ul data-path-to-node="7"><li><p data-path-to-node="7,0,0">Industrial Output (MoM): The preliminary read was 1.4%.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="7,1,0">Capacity Utilization: Prior read was 2.5%.</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="8">Unless we see a massive revision here, this is likely to be a non-event for the USD/JPY, which will continue to take its cues from Treasury yields and the broader risk tone.</p><p data-path-to-node="9">With a calendar this light, watch for month-end flows or profit-taking as traders square up positions ahead of the weekend.</p><p data-path-to-node="10">Here is the schedule for the session (All times GMT):</p><p data-path-to-node="11">02:00 GMT</p><ul data-path-to-node="12"><li><p data-path-to-node="12,0,0">AU: LSEG IPSOS PCSI (Dec) — Prior: 52.82</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="13">04:30 GMT</p><ul data-path-to-node="14"><li><p data-path-to-node="14,0,0">JP: Industrial Production Revised (MoM) (Oct) — Prelim: 1.4%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="14,1,0">JP: Industrial Production Revised (YoY) (Oct) — Prelim: 1.6%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="14,2,0">JP: Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Oct) — Prior: 2.5%</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="15">The central bank and political speaker list is also bare.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/major-stock-indices-and-mixed-as-dow-and-sp-hit-new-recordsnasdaq-falls-on-tech-weakness-20251211/">Major stock indices end mixed as Dow and S&amp;P hit new records.NASDAQ falls on tech weakness</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/federal-reserve-announces-reappointment-of-regional-presidents-20251211/">Federal Reserve announces reappointment of regional Presidents</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/technical-analysis/silver-skyrockets-to-record-highs-over-64-gold-chases-4300-20251211/">Silver Skyrockets to Record Highs Over $64; Gold Chases $4,300</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/wh-trump-on-fed-more-should-be-done-20251211/">WH Trump on Fed: More should be done.</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/the-us-treasury-auctioned-22b-of-30-year-bonds-at-a-high-yield-of-4773-20251211/">The US treasury auctioned $22B of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.773%</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/atlanta-fed-gdpnow-upgrade-q3-growth-hits-36-as-net-exports-surge-20251211/">Atlanta Fed GDPNow Upgrade: Q3 Growth Hits 3.6% as Net Exports Surge</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/financial-sector-strides-amid-technology-slump-20251211/">Financial sector strides amid technology slump</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/technical-analysis/dow-jones-technical-analysis-after-last-nights-fomc-bulls-holding-20251211/">Dow Jones Technical Analysis after Last Night's FOMC. Bulls Holding.</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-236k-versus-220k-estimate-us-trade-deficit-narrows-to-528b-20251211/">US initial jobless claims 236K versus 220K estimate. US trade deficit narrows to -$52.8B</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/technical-analysis/usd-is-moving-lower-the-day-after-the-fomc-decision-what-are-the-technicals-forecasting-20251211/">USD is moving lower the day after the FOMC decision. What are the technicals forecasting?</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/investinglive-european-fx-news-wrap-snb-keeps-rates-unchanged-sounds-more-optimistic-20251211/">investingLive European FX news wrap: SNB keeps rates unchanged, sounds more optimistic</a></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="5">Key Takeaways:</p><ul data-path-to-node="6"><li><p data-path-to-node="6,0,0">USD Weakness: The dollar fell against European majors and the Yen as US yields retreated.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="6,1,0">Jobless Claims: Initial claims normalized to 236K, confirming last week's drop was a holiday outlier.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="6,2,0">AUD Volatility: Soft internal jobs data undermined RBA hawkishness, though the pair bounced off key technical support.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="6,3,0">Commodities: Silver and Gold posted massive gains, while Crude Oil successfully tested critical support from November.</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="8">USD Closes Mixed as Claims Data Weighs on Yields</p><p data-path-to-node="9">The US Dollar finished the session on the back foot, giving back recent gains against most major counterparts. The greenback struggled to find demand as US Treasury yields softened across the curve, driven by a "normalization" in labor market data.</p><p data-path-to-node="10">The Closing Scoreboard: The Dollar fell against the defensive and European currencies:</p><ul data-path-to-node="11"><li><p data-path-to-node="11,0,0">CHF: -0.69%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="11,1,0">EUR: -0.43%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="11,2,0">JPY: -0.32%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="11,3,0">CAD: -0.16%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="11,4,0">GBP: -0.05%</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="12">However, the greenback managed to hold onto gains against the antipodal currencies:</p><ul data-path-to-node="13"><li><p data-path-to-node="13,0,0">AUD: +0.16%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="13,1,0">NZD: +0.10%</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="14">US Jobless Claims: The "Holiday Noise" Fades</p><p data-path-to-node="15">The primary catalyst for the dollar's intraday weakness was the release of the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims.</p><p data-path-to-node="16">Last week, the market was momentarily confused when claims dropped sharply to 191K, well below the 200K psychological level and the 220K estimate. However, analysts warned that the data was heavily distorted by the Thanksgiving holiday seasonality.</p><p data-path-to-node="17">That caution proved correct today. Claims rebounded to 236K, coming in above the 220K estimate and testing the upper end of the recent 205K–240K range. The "weaker" jobs picture (higher claims) was welcomed by bond bulls, helping to push yields lower and, by extension, weighing on the USD.</p><p data-path-to-node="18">AUDUSD: Soft Jobs Data Undercuts RBA Hawks</p><p data-path-to-node="19">The Australian Dollar saw two-way volatility following a domestic jobs report that was weaker than the headline suggested. While the unemployment rate came in at 4.3% (beating the 4.4% expectation), the internal details painted a picture of a softening labor market:</p><ul data-path-to-node="20"><li><p data-path-to-node="20,0,0">Full-time jobs: Plunged by –56.5K (erasing the prior month's +55.3K gain).</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="20,1,0">Participation Rate: Dropped to 66.7% (from 67.0%), which artificially suppressed the unemployment rate.</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="21">The RBA Impact: This report comes just 24 hours after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock sounded notably hawkish, leading markets to price in a 33% chance of a March rate hike. Today’s data dampens that speculation. The sharp drop in full-time employment suggests the "cooling" the RBA has been waiting for is arriving, likely pushing rate hike expectations off the table.</p><p data-path-to-node="22">Technical Outlook: Despite the fundamental headwind, the AUDUSD showed resilience. The pair sold off to a low of 0.6627, testing a key swing area defined by the lows between 0.66247 and 0.6635. Buyers stepped in at this support zone, and the price bounced roughly 16 pips off the lows heading into the close.</p><p data-path-to-node="23">Treasury Yields: The Short End Leads the Way Down</p><p data-path-to-node="24">US Treasury yields moved lower on the back of the jobless claims report, with the curve steepening slightly as the short end outperformed.</p><ul data-path-to-node="25"><li><p data-path-to-node="25,0,0">2-Year Yield: 3.525% (–4.0 bps)</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="25,1,0">5-Year Yield: 3.715% (–4.0 bps)</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="25,2,0">10-Year Yield: 4.142% (–2.1 bps)</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="25,3,0">30-Year Yield: 4.793% (–0.2 bps)</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="26">30-Year Auction Results: The Treasury’s auction of 30-year bonds was solid, earning a grade of "B." While there was no disaster, the auction failed to spark a significant follow-through rally in the long bond, leaving the 30-year yield essentially flat on the day.</p><p data-path-to-node="27">Commodities &amp; Crypto: Precious Metals Shine</p><p data-path-to-node="28">Crude Oil Tests Support Crude oil prices remained under pressure, falling $0.65 (–1.12%) to settle at $57.77. Critically, the price tested the major support level from November 25 at $57.10, hitting a low of $57.01 before bouncing. Holding this level is vital for the bulls to prevent a deeper breakdown.</p><p data-path-to-node="29">Gold &amp; Silver Surge Precious metals were the standout performers of the day, capitalizing on lower yields and a softer dollar:</p><ul data-path-to-node="30"><li><p data-path-to-node="30,0,0">Gold: Rallied sharply by $45.41 (+1.08%) to close at $4,273.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="30,1,0">Silver: Continued its parabolic run, surging to $63.47. (For a deep dive into the technical breakout on metals, [CLICK HERE]).</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="31">Bitcoin Consolidates Bitcoin remained relatively quiet amidst the volatility in traditional assets, dipping slightly by $135 (–0.15%) to trade at $91,921, as it consolidates recent gains.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Trump news today:</p><ul><li>Administration sanctions Maduro's nephews and 6 ships carrying Venezuelan oil</li><li>Bessent commented that Maduro group in criminal associations are flooding the US with drugs that is poisoning the American people</li><li>Maduro and cronies have a choice: stop the drug trafficking stop the corruption, stop the dictatorship and leave the country.</li></ul><p>ON Ukraine:</p><ul><li>The administration continues to talk with both sides.</li><li>If there is a real chance to a peace agreement, the US will send representatives for talks, meetings would need to be productive.</li></ul><p>On the Fed:</p><ul><li>Trump thinks the Fed should do more.</li></ul><p>On Nvidia H200 chips:</p><ul><li>Chips will be shipped to approved customers in China. (Nvidia shares are down at $-3.80 or more is 2.06% at $179.99)</li></ul><p>Trump on TruthSocial said: prices are coming down fast, energy, oil, and gasoline marketing 5 year lows, and the stock market today just it and all-time high. Tariffs are bringing in hundreds of billions of dollars.</p><p>On China and Japan :</p><ul><li>Trump has a good relationship with leaders of China and Japan</li></ul><p data-path-to-node="0">Trump is fighting declining approval ratings although they may be coming after after the dip due to the shutdown. Nevertheless, Trump's approval rating varies by pollster, generally ranging between 36% and 45% as of mid-December 2025.</p><p data-path-to-node="1">Most major polling averages show his approval rating in the low-to-mid 40s, while disapproval ratings are consistently above 50%.</p><p data-path-to-node="2">Here is a breakdown of the most recent data from reputable sources:</p><p data-path-to-node="3">Polling Averages (Aggregated Data)</p><p data-path-to-node="4">These sources combine multiple polls to smooth out outliers and provide a broader picture of public sentiment.</p><ul data-path-to-node="5"><li><p data-path-to-node="5,0,0">RealClearPolitics (RCP) Average:</p><ul data-path-to-node="5,0,1"><li><p data-path-to-node="5,0,1,0,0">Approval: 43.9%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="5,0,1,1,0">Disapproval: 52.9%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="5,0,1,2,0">As of December 11, 2025</p></li></ul></li><li><p data-path-to-node="5,1,0">FiveThirtyEight (Silver Bulletin):</p><ul data-path-to-node="5,1,1"><li><p data-path-to-node="5,1,1,0,0">Approval: 42.4%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="5,1,1,1,0">Disapproval: 54.2%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="5,1,1,2,0">As of December 11, 2025</p></li></ul></li><li><p data-path-to-node="5,2,0">Decision Desk HQ:</p><ul data-path-to-node="5,2,1"><li><p data-path-to-node="5,2,1,0,0">Approval: 43.1%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="5,2,1,1,0">Disapproval: 52.8%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="5,2,1,2,0">As of December 11, 2025</p></li></ul></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="6">Individual Major Polls</p><p data-path-to-node="7">Individual polls can show more variance depending on their methodology (e.g., registered voters vs. all adults).</p><ul data-path-to-node="8"><li><p data-path-to-node="8,0,0">Gallup:</p><ul data-path-to-node="8,0,1"><li><p data-path-to-node="8,0,1,0,0">Approval: 36%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,0,1,1,0">Disapproval: 60%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,0,1,2,0">Polling dates: Nov 3–25, 2025</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,0,1,3,0">Note: Gallup highlighted this as a "new second-term low" for President Trump.</p></li></ul></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,1,0">Reuters / Ipsos:</p><ul data-path-to-node="8,1,1"><li><p data-path-to-node="8,1,1,0,0">Approval: 41%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,1,1,1,0">Disapproval: 58%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,1,1,2,0">Released: Dec 9, 2025</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,1,1,3,0">Note: This marked a slight increase from a previous low of 38%.</p></li></ul></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,2,0">Rasmussen Reports:</p><ul data-path-to-node="8,2,1"><li><p data-path-to-node="8,2,1,0,0">Approval: 45%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,2,1,1,0">Disapproval: 52%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,2,1,2,0">Released: Dec 10, 2025</p></li></ul></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,3,0">AP / NORC:</p><ul data-path-to-node="8,3,1"><li><p data-path-to-node="8,3,1,0,0">Approval: 36%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,3,1,1,0">Disapproval: 62%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,3,1,2,0">Polling dates: Nov 6–10, 2025</p></li></ul></li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>The US treasury has auctioned off $22Bof 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.773%</p><p>The WI (when-issued) level at the time of the auction was 4.774%</p><p>The results of a US Treasury auction act as a real-time "report card" on the market's appetite for US government debt. Because US Treasuries are the risk-free benchmark for the entire global financial system, the results ripple across all asset classes—stocks, currencies, and commodities.</p><p>Given the auction results, my AUCTION GRADE: B</p><p>Reasons for the B grade. </p><ul><li>The tails was -0.1 basis points lower than the WI level. Positive. </li><li>The Bid to cover was on the screws vs the 6 month average. Average.</li><li>Indrect bidders were higher than the 6 month average. Slight positive for international buyers</li><li>DIrect bidders were near the 6 month average. Average</li><li>Dealers were saddled with slightly less than average. Slight positive.</li></ul><p>Yields are little changed after the completion of the coupon auctions. </p><p data-path-to-node="0">US Treasury Auction Process: Key Components</p><p data-path-to-node="1">The US Treasury auction process determines the yield (interest rate) the government pays on its debt. The market effectively "votes" on the price of US debt through this mechanism.</p><p data-path-to-node="2">1. The "WI" Level (When-Issued) was 4.774%</p><ul data-path-to-node="3"><li><p data-path-to-node="3,0,0">Definition: "When-Issued" refers to trading that occurs in the time between the announcement of an auction and the actual auction itself.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="3,1,0">Significance: It serves as the market's "price consensus" or expected yield leading up to the deadline. It anchors the market's expectations.</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="4">2. The Tail -0.1 basis point vs the 6 month average of 0.3 basis points</p><ul data-path-to-node="5"><li><p data-path-to-node="5,0,0">Definition: The Tail is the difference between the High Yield (the actual yield determined at the auction) and the WI Yield (the expected yield right before the auction closes).</p><ul data-path-to-node="5,0,1"><li><p data-path-to-node="5,0,1,0,0">Tail = High Yield - WI Yield</p></li></ul></li><li><p data-path-to-node="5,1,0">Interpretation:</p><ul data-path-to-node="5,1,1"><li><p data-path-to-node="5,1,1,0,0">Positive Tail (Weak Demand): If the auction yields higher than the WI level (e.g., WI was 4.00% but the auction stopped at 4.02%), it indicates that demand was softer than expected. Dealers had to lower prices (raise yields) to sell the entire issue.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="5,1,1,1,0">Stopping Through (Strong Demand): If the auction yields lower than the WI level (e.g., 3.98% vs. 4.00%), it indicates aggressive buying.</p></li></ul></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="6">3. Bid-to-Cover Ratio 2.36X vs the 6 month average of 2.36X</p><ul data-path-to-node="7"><li><p data-path-to-node="7,0,0">Definition: The total dollar amount of bids received divided by the amount of debt being sold.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="7,1,0">Significance: This is the primary metric for demand.</p><ul data-path-to-node="7,1,1"><li><p data-path-to-node="7,1,1,0,0">Higher is better: A ratio of 2.5x means for every $1 of debt offered, $2.50 was bid. Ratios below average suggest weak demand and can spook markets.</p></li></ul></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="8">4. The Bidders</p><p data-path-to-node="9">The Treasury breaks down buyers into three categories to show who is buying the debt:</p><ul data-path-to-node="10"><li><p data-path-to-node="10,0,0">Indirect Bidders 65.4% vs the 6 month average of 63.7%</p><ul data-path-to-node="10,0,1"><li><p data-path-to-node="10,0,1,0,0">Who they are: Foreign central banks, international investors, and some domestic investment managers placing bids through a primary dealer.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="10,0,1,1,0">Significance: Often viewed as a proxy for foreign demand. High indirect participation is generally seen as bullish (strong global confidence in US debt).</p></li></ul></li><li><p data-path-to-node="10,1,0">Direct Bidders 23.5% vs the 6 month average of 23.9%:</p><ul data-path-to-node="10,1,1"><li><p data-path-to-node="10,1,1,0,0">Who they are: Domestic money managers, insurance companies, hedge funds, and individuals placing bids directly with the Treasury (bypassing dealers).</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="10,1,1,1,0">Significance: Represents "real money" domestic demand.</p></li></ul></li><li><p data-path-to-node="10,2,0">Primary Dealers 11.2% vs the 6-month average of 12.5%</p><ul data-path-to-node="10,2,1"><li><p data-path-to-node="10,2,1,0,0">Who they are: Large banks (e.g., Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan) designated by the NY Fed. They are required to bid in every auction.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="10,2,1,1,0">Significance: They act as the "backstop." They buy whatever supply the Directs and Indirects don't take. A high Dealer award is generally bearish (bad), as it means the banks are stuck holding excess inventory they must now try to sell into the secondary market.</p></li></ul></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="12">Debt Statistics &amp; This Week's Auction Data</p><p>Total US Public Debt Outstanding:</p><p>As of early December 2025, the total public debt outstanding is approximately $38.4 trillion.</p><p>Treasury Auctions for the Week of December 8, 2025:</p><p>The Treasury issued the following amounts in the 3, 10, and 30-year maturities this week:</p><p data-path-to-node="0">What to know about the US Treasury 30-Year Bond Auctions</p><p data-path-to-node="1">The 30-year bond is the longest maturity debt instrument issued by the US government. It acts as a critical benchmark for long-term interest rates, influencing everything from mortgage rates to corporate bond pricing.</p><p data-path-to-node="2">1. Frequency: When are they auctioned?</p><ul data-path-to-node="3"><li><p data-path-to-node="3,0,0">Monthly Auctions: The US Treasury holds an auction for 30-year bonds every month.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="3,1,0">The "Quarterly Refunding" Cycle:</p><ul data-path-to-node="3,1,1"><li><p data-path-to-node="3,1,1,0,0">New Issues (4x per year): New 30-year bonds are issued quarterly in February, May, August, and November. These are brand new securities with a new CUSIP and maturity date.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="3,1,1,1,0">Reopenings (8x per year): In the other eight months (Jan, Mar, Apr, Jun, Jul, Sep, Oct, Dec), the Treasury performs a "reopening." This means they sell more of the bond that was issued in the previous quarter. It has the same CUSIP and interest rate but is sold at the current market price (which may be higher or lower than the original face value).</p></li></ul></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="4">2. Auction Amounts: How much is sold?</p><ul data-path-to-node="5"><li><p data-path-to-node="5,0,0">Current Monthly Pace: As of late 2025, the Treasury typically auctions between $20 billion and $25 billion of 30-year bonds each month.</p><ul data-path-to-node="5,0,1"><li><p data-path-to-node="5,0,1,0,0">New Issues (Quarterly) are typically slightly larger (e.g., ~$25 billion).</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="5,0,1,1,0">Reopenings are typically slightly smaller (e.g., ~$22 billion).</p></li></ul></li><li><p data-path-to-node="5,1,0">Annual Total: This puts the total annual issuance of 30-year debt at approximately $280 billion to $300 billion per year.</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="6">3. How has the amount changed over time?</p><p data-path-to-node="7">The size of 30-year bond auctions has increased significantly over the last decade to fund growing federal deficits.</p><ul data-path-to-node="8"><li><p data-path-to-node="8,0,0">2010s: For much of the post-2008 era, 30-year auction sizes were relatively small, often in the $10 billion to $15 billion range per month.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,1,0">Pandemic Era (2020-2021): Auction sizes ramped up dramatically to fund stimulus measures, reaching peaks of roughly $24–27 billion per month.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,2,0">Recent Trends (2024-2025): After a brief period of stabilization, auction sizes have begun creeping up again. The Treasury has had to increase coupon supply across the curve (2s, 5s, 10s, and 30s) to manage the higher interest expense and ongoing fiscal deficit.</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="9">4. Specifics for This Week (December 2025)</p><ul data-path-to-node="10"><li><p data-path-to-node="10,0,0">Auction Date: Thursday, December 11, 2025.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="10,1,0">Type: This was a Reopening (of the bond originally issued in November).</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="10,2,0">Amount Auctioned: $22 Billion.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="10,3,0">Result: The market closely watched this auction to see if investors demanded a higher yield (a "tail") to absorb the supply, given the recent rise in rates.</p></li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Freddie Mac is reporting that the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage average rate rose to 6.22% from 6.19% in the prior week. The recent cycle lows going back to October 2022 is at 6.09%.</p><p data-path-to-node="3">Current Market Snapshot</p><p data-path-to-node="4">The housing market continues to navigate a complex environment of fluctuating rates and sticky prices. While the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points yesterday, mortgage rates have moved in the opposite direction this week, highlighting the disconnect that often exists between Fed policy and long-term bond yields.</p><ul data-path-to-node="5"><li><p data-path-to-node="5,0,0">Mortgage Rates: According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.22% this week, up from 6.19% the previous week.</p></li></ul><ul><li>Inventory Levels: Housing supply is slowly recovering but remains approximately 13% below pre-pandemic levels. We are seeing regional disparities, with inventory surging in the South and West (rising above pre-pandemic norms in cities like Denver and Austin) while remaining tight in the Northeast.</li></ul><ul><li>Price Trends: National median list prices are largely flat year-over-year at approximately $424,000. However, about 20% of listings are seeing price cuts, suggesting sellers are having to adjust expectations to meet stretched buyers.</li></ul><p data-path-to-node="6">The Affordability Crunch</p><p data-path-to-node="7">Affordability remains the primary headwind for prospective buyers. Despite the Fed's easing cycle, the combination of home prices near record highs and mortgage rates above 6% keeps monthly payments elevated.</p><ul data-path-to-node="8"><li><p data-path-to-node="8,0,0">Delinquencies Outlook: Recent credit reports suggest a modest rise in mortgage delinquencies heading into 2026 as the "affordability squeeze" tests borrower resilience.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,1,0">Buyer Behavior: A new report from Zillow indicates that many buyers are skipping the "rate shopping" phase in a rush to secure homes, potentially costing them significant savings in a volatile rate environment.</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="9">Chair Powell on Housing: The "Lock-In" Effect and Supply</p><p data-path-to-node="10">During yesterday’s post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed the housing market directly, offering a sobering view on why lower Fed rates haven't immediately fixed the sector's issues.</p><p data-path-to-node="11">1. The "Lock-In" Effect is Stifling Supply Powell emphasized that the housing market is effectively "frozen" because millions of Americans are holding onto mortgages with rates between 2% and 3%. Even as the Fed cuts rates, current market rates (near 6%) are too high to entice these owners to sell and move, keeping resale inventory artificially low.</p><p data-path-to-node="12">2. Inflation &amp; Housing Services Powell noted that while the Fed has made progress on inflation, housing services inflation remains sticky. He described the current policy stance as "modestly restrictive," which is helping to cool the economy, but he acknowledged that monetary policy alone cannot fix structural housing supply deficits.</p><p data-path-to-node="13">3. The Tariff Impact When addressing recent inflation data, Powell attributed much of the current "heat" to tariffs, describing them as a "one-time price increase." However, he warned that if these policy shifts lead to higher costs for construction materials or labor shortages (via immigration changes), it could exacerbate the housing supply shortage further.</p><p data-path-to-node="2">Realtor.com 2026 Forecast: A Steady Shift Toward Balance</p><p data-path-to-node="3">Overview: "Low Gear" Recovery</p><p data-path-to-node="4">Realtor.com recently outlined their projections for US housing in 2026. </p><p data-path-to-node="4">They forecast that the US housing market is expected to shift into a steadier, more balanced state in 2026. While not a boom year, conditions will improve modestly for buyers as affordability pressures ease slightly. The market will remain in "low gear," with sales rising slowly from historical lows but still constrained by high prices and rates.</p><p data-path-to-node="5">Key Data Projections (2026 vs. 2025)</p><ul data-path-to-node="6"><li><p data-path-to-node="6,0,0">Mortgage Rates: Expected to average 6.3% for the year (down from an average of 6.6% in 2025). This stability helps buyers budget but keeps the "lock-in" effect in play for existing owners.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="6,1,0">Home Prices: Forecast to rise by a modest 2.2% year-over-year. Crucially, inflation is expected to outpace this growth (~3%), meaning real home prices (inflation-adjusted) will actually decline slightly, slowly improving affordability.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="6,2,0">Existing-Home Sales: Projected to rise 1.7% to 4.13 million units. This is a small rebound from the 29-year lows seen in 2024-2025.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="6,3,0">Inventory: For-sale inventory will grow by 8.9%, marking the third straight year of gains, though levels will still remain ~12% below pre-pandemic norms.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="6,4,0">Rents: Rents are forecast to decline by 1.0% nationally as a robust supply of new multi-family units hits the market.</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="7">Market Dynamics by Group</p><ul data-path-to-node="8"><li><p data-path-to-node="8,0,0">For Buyers: "Negotiating power tilts subtly toward buyers." Affordability will improve as incomes grow faster than home prices, pushing the typical mortgage payment share of income below 30% for the first time since 2022.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,1,0">For Sellers: The market is moving further into "balanced territory." Sellers will face more competition and may need to be flexible on price. Delistings (sellers walking away rather than cutting prices) may continue.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,2,0">For Renters: A "renter's market" is emerging, particularly in the South and West (e.g., Austin, Las Vegas, Atlanta) where supply is surging.</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="9">Economic Backdrop</p><ul data-path-to-node="10"><li><p data-path-to-node="10,0,0">Inflation &amp; Wages: Inflation is expected to hover around 3%, but wage growth (3.6%) will outpace it, restoring some consumer purchasing power.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="10,1,0">Risks: The forecast highlights significant risks, including trade policy/tariffs impacting construction costs and the uncertainty of a Federal Reserve leadership transition when Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026.</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="11">Conclusion</p><p data-path-to-node="12">2026 is framed as a year of "slow normalization." It won't be a dramatic return to the frenzied activity of 2020-2021, nor a crash. Instead, it offers a window of stability where inventory creeps up, rates flatten out, and buyers gradually regain some leverage.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p data-start="176" data-end="623">U.S. Jobless Claims Rebound, but Holiday Distortions Cloud the Picture</p><p data-start="176" data-end="623">U.S. initial jobless claims rebounded to 236K, above the 220K expected by economists. The prior week was also revised higher to 192K from 191K, though that earlier reading remains unusually low. It’s important to recall that last week’s sharp drop to 191K was widely viewed as an outlier, heavily influenced by the Thanksgiving holiday, which often disrupts seasonal adjustments and temporarily suppresses claims activity. The day-to-day signals less of a robust employment picture which is more in line with ADP data, and some of the other surveyed data.</p><p data-start="625" data-end="1137">Continuing claims provide additional context. Last week’s total was 1.939 million, but the latest report — which also covers the Thanksgiving period — fell to 1.838 million versus 1.947 million expected. On the surface, this would normally signal a stronger labor market, as fewer individuals are remaining on unemployment benefits. However, just like the initial claims figures, these numbers are distorted by holiday effects, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions about the underlying trend.</p><p data-start="1139" data-end="1373" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Taken together, today’s data suggest some rebound from last week’s artificially low readings, but traders and policymakers will need to wait for post-holiday, normalized data to get a clearer picture of true labor-market momentum.</p><p data-start="1139" data-end="1373" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">US trade deficit for September -52.8 billion versus -63.3 billion estimate</p><p>U.S. trade figures for September released by the BLS this morning, showed meaningful improvement as exports rose to $289.3 billion, an increase of $8.4 billion from August, while imports climbed to $342.1 billion, up a more modest $1.9 billion for the month. </p><p>The goods and services deficit narrowed as a result, driven primarily by a $7.1 billion reduction in the goods deficit to $79.0 billion, although this was partially offset by a $0.6 billion decline in the services surplus to $26.2 billion. </p><p>Despite the monthly improvement, the broader trend remains one of widening trade gaps: year-to-date, the overall deficit has increased $112.6 billion (17.2%) compared to the same period in 2024. Both sides of the ledger have grown, with exports up $125.1 billion (5.2%) but imports rising even faster, up $237.7 billion (7.7%), suggesting domestic demand continues to outpace foreign demand for U.S. goods and services.</p><p data-start="94" data-end="182">U.S. Trade Balance by Country: September Shows Sharp Shifts in Key Bilateral Flows</p><p data-start="184" data-end="837">The country-level breakdown of September trade data revealed dramatic swings in several major bilateral balances. </p><p data-start="184" data-end="837">The largest U.S. trade surpluses were recorded with Switzerland ($6.6B), the Netherlands ($5.9B), South and Central America ($5.0B), Hong Kong ($2.1B), Belgium ($1.4B), Brazil ($1.3B), the United Kingdom ($1.1B), and smaller surpluses with Australia, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore. </p><p data-start="184" data-end="837">The standout move came from Switzerland, where the U.S. shifted from a $0.1B deficit in August to a $6.6B surplus in September, driven by a $7.1B surge in exports to $10.8B, while imports edged only slightly higher. The Trump Administration enacted a surprise 39% tariff on Switzerland underscoring the decline in imports. However, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-the-united-states-switzerland-and-liechtenstein-reach-a-historic-trade-deal/?utm_source=chatgpt.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">recent negotiations</a> between the U.S. and Switzerland, the two countries reached a "framework agreement" to reduce those tariffs sharply to 15% from 39%. </p><p data-start="184" data-end="837">This reduction, which brings Swiss tariffs in line with the rate applied to European Union exporters, is expected to be implemented retroactively from November 14, 2025, and will significantly lower the cost burden on Swiss exports such as pharmaceuticals, watches and precision instruments.</p><p data-start="839" data-end="1580" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">On the deficit side, the largest trade gaps continued with Ireland ($18.2B), Mexico ($17.8B), the European Union ($17.8B), Vietnam ($14.4B), and China ($11.4B), followed by notable deficits with Taiwan, Canada, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and India. </p><p data-start="839" data-end="1580" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">The deficit with China narrowed by $4.0B, helped by a $3.9B drop in imports to $20.1B, while U.S. exports to China rose modestly. In contrast, the deficit with Ireland widened sharply by $15.3B as imports surged $14.8B to $19.9B and exports slipped. </p><p data-start="839" data-end="1580" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Overall, September’s country-level data highlight a mix of improving balances with key Asian partners like China, alongside sizable deteriorations with import-heavy markets such as Ireland and Mexico.</p><p data-start="839" data-end="1580" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Powell Signals Confidence as Fed Cuts Rates and Tariff Effects Dominate Inflation Outlook</p><p data-start="839" data-end="1580" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, with Chair Powell emphasizing that the economy — and monetary policy — is now in “a good place.” Powell noted that if not for tariffs, inflation would already be at the Fed’s 2% target, describing the tariff impact as a one-time price adjustment rather than a sustained inflation driver. If that shock fades in the second year of the Trump administration, Powell argued, inflation should naturally drift back toward 2%. He added that disinflation in services continues to progress, while goods inflation remains elevated primarily because of tariff-related cost pressures, reinforcing the message that underlying inflation trends are moving in the right direction once policy distortions unwind.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/snb-chairman-schlegel-snb-policy-to-stoke-inflation-slowly-in-the-next-quarters-20251211/">SNB Chairman Schlegel: SNB policy to stoke inflation slowly in the next quarters</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/snb-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-at-000-as-expected-in-december-20251211/">SNB leaves interest rates unchanged at 0.00% as expected in December</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/Orders/fx-option-expiries-for-11-december-10am-new-york-cut-20251211/">FX option expiries for 11 December 10am New York cut</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/what-are-the-main-events-for-today-20251211/">What are the main events for today?</a></li></ul><p>It's been an empty session in terms of data releases and notable newsflow. The only highlight was the SNB monetary policy decision. The central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 0.00% as expected and slightly downgraded inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027. </p><p>The economic outlook was upgraded due to the recent decrease of US tariffs on Swiss goods to 15%. Chairman Schlegel downplayed the disappointing inflation readings in the recent months and reiterated that the Bank expects inflation to pick up slowly in the next months due to expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.</p><p>The Swiss Franc was mostly unchanged after the decision and the press conference, but started to pick up steam on a broad USD weakness that eventually led to a break below the key support around the 0.7980 level on USDCHF.</p><p>In the markets, the US dollar remains on the backfoot following the dovish Fed Chair Powell's press conference where he downplayed the inflation risk and put more emphasis on the labour market.</p><p>The US equities, after giving back the post-FOMC gains overnight, are now recovering the losses. US Treasury yields are trading near today's lows, which also underpinning gold and silver.</p><p>In the American session, the main highlight will be the release of the US Jobless Claims figures. Initial Claims are expected at 220K vs 191K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1947K vs 1939K prior.</p><p>The data has been pointing to a "low firing, low hiring" labour market for a very long time, and as Fed Chair Powell said yesterday, that's an unusual situation. The Fed is trying to help the demand side and turn it more into a "low firing, higher hiring" labour market without stoking inflation.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p>In the European session, we have the Swiss National Bank (SNB) releasing its monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.00% and not signal anything in terms of forward guidance. Despite the disappointing inflation data in the recent months, SNB members reiterated that the bar for negative rates remains very high. </p><p>They just don't want to go back into NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) without a very strong reason, that at this point looks like a global recession or some outright deflation in Switzerland. SNB's Chairman Schlegel said that they expect inflation to pick up a bit in the next months. </p><p>Switzerland has also reached a deal with the US to lower the 39% tariffs on Swiss goods to 15%. That should be positive for the Swiss economy and potentially give it a little boost.</p><p>In the American session, the main highlight will be the release of the US Jobless Claims figures. Initial Claims are expected at 220K vs 191K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1947K vs 1939K prior.</p><p>The data has been pointing to a "low firing, low hiring" labour market for a very long time, and as Fed Chair Powell said yesterday, that's an unusual situation. The Fed is trying to help the demand side and turn it more into a "low firing, higher hiring" labour market without stoking inflation.</p><p>Central bank speakers:</p><ul><li>09:00 GMT/04:00 ET - SNB Press Conference</li><li>10:00 GMT/05:00 ET - BoE's Bailey (neutral - voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/australia-november-employment-213k-vs-200k-expected-20251211/">Australia November employment -21.3K vs +20.0K expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/mexico-approves-tariffs-as-high-as-50-taiff-on-chinese-and-asian-imports-20251211/">Mexico approves tariffs as high as 50% taiff on Chinese and Asian imports</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/uk-rics-house-price-survey-16-vs-21-expected-20251211/">UK RICS house price survey -16 vs -21 expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/new-zealand-q3-manufacturing-sales-11-vs-29-prior-20251210/">New Zealand Q3 manufacturing sales +1.1% vs -2.9% prior</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/japan-q4-business-survey-index-47-vs-38-20251210/">Japan Q4 business survey index +4.7% vs +3.8%</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/rbc-forecasts-gold-to-average-4600-in-2026-and-hit-5100-in-2027-20251210/">RBC forecasts gold to average $4,600 in 2026 and hit $5,100 in 2027</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stocks/shares-of-oracle-fall-10-the-questions-about-ai-spending-continue-20251210/">Shares of Oracle fall 10% the questions about AI spending continue</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold down $15 to $4212</li><li>US 10-year yields down 4 bps to 4.12%</li><li>WTI crude oil flat at $58.45</li><li>S&amp;P 500 futures down 53 points or 0.8%</li><li>JPY leads, AUD lags</li></ul><p>The Australian dollar struggled after a soft jobs report. The unemployment rate managed to hold steady but only because of a three-tick drop in the participation rate. AUD fell about 20 pips on the headline but that was the extent of that move.</p><p>The continued selling in AUD after that came on generalized risk aversion and an unwind of the post-Fed trade. After the decision, the US dollar sold off and stock markets rallied. The move in stock markets has been completely erased and the dollar is rebounding. The equity selling was helped along by a bad post-earnings reaction in Oracle shares, which are down 11% and nearly 50% since their prior earnings spike.</p><p>The theme around AI overspending and profitability isn't going away and will likely nag markets throughout the year ahead.</p><p>Neither will tariffs and Mexico made an interesting move by blocking off much of its Asia imports via tariffs. That sets up a potential negotiation with the US to create a bloc and replace Chinese low-cost goods. </p><p>Other moves saw silver hit as high as $62.88 as that rally continues. But the profit taking quickly unwound the gains on the day and gold is down modestly.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Mexico's Senate has approved tariffs of 5-50% on imports from China and other parts of Asia.</p><p>The duties will hit Asian countries that don't have trade deals with Mexico, including China, India, South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia. </p><ul><li><p data-path-to-node="3,0,0">Automobiles (Light Vehicles): 50% (up from 20%)</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="3,1,0">Textiles and Clothing generallly 35% (this was a big focus of the bill)</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="3,2,0">Steel and Aluminum: 35% (with some at 50%)</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="3,3,0">Footwear, Plastics, and Glass: 35%</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="3,4,0">Electronics and Appliances: Mixed (5% - 35%) - </p><ul data-path-to-node="3,4,1"><li><p data-path-to-node="3,4,1,0,0">Some inputs and specific parts were "softened" to lower rates (5% to 10%) to avoid hurting Mexican assembly plants, while finished consumer appliances likely face the 35% rate.</p></li></ul></li></ul><p>This is starting to look like a bid to get a deal with Trump but note that the original proposal was much harsher. From the US perspective though, all I see is a shift in manufacturing to Mexico from China. If that's the case, then maybe hurting China was the real strategy all along.</p><p>What's starting to take shape is a US-led fortress North America strategy or perhaps all the Americas. What's notable is South Korea getting cut out, which is/was a strong US ally. That could further fears that the US is abandoning Asia to China.</p><p>This strategy could beg for retaliation from China to Mexico. It also puts Canada in a tough place unless it can get zero tariffs from the US.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>In 2025, the Trump administration took on the world with its trade but 2026 will be about its neighbors.</p><p>There is a sense that the trade war has stabilized and hopefully it has but the year ahead will be all about the USMCA trade agreement. Mexico and Canada represent nearly 30% of US imports and have largely avoided tariffs so far. Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico represent about 33% of US exports.</p><p>U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Wednesday that the Trump administration is keeping all options on the table for the future of the trade agreement, which Trump negotiated in his first term.</p><p>It's a big year for the agreement but there is an automatic review in 2026 and each country has the opportunity to extend it, renegotiate it or withdraw.</p><p>I strongly suspect the US will aim for bilateral agreements and Greer hinted at the same today, noting structural differences in the two countries.</p><p>"The labour situation's different. The import-export profile is different. The rule of law is different. So it makes sense to talk about things separately with Canada and Mexico," he said.</p><p>Here is a key detail that's also critical. All three countries must indicate by July 1 about their intentions for the deal but the US must provide a report to Congress 180 days before the deadline -- that's January 2 -- and it must signal the administration's intentions.</p><p>It's possible the deal survives, or at least the important parts but Greer appeared before a U.S. Senate subcommittee on Tuesday, telling senators that one of his key goals is tightening CUSMA’s "rules of origin".</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was 42.2K</li><li>Full time -56.5K vs +55.3K prior</li><li>Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.4% expected (prior 4.3%)</li><li>Participation rate 66.7% vs 67.0% prior</li></ul><p>The RBA decision was yesterday but Bullard tipped a more-hawkish stance and the market saw a 33% chance of rate hike as soon as March but we will need to mark that down. Don't let the lower unemployment rate fool you as it came on a sharp decline in participation. If that had held steady, it would have ticked to 4.6%.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was -19</li></ul><p>If you squint, you can start to see a turn upward.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was +3.8%</li></ul><p>The trade war isn't hurting manufacturing and the latest yen weakness won't hurt as well (at least on the export side, it's not so great for importers).</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.