<p>The talks in Islamabad have beguin, according to reports from all sides.</p><p>Notably, Iran has said it can't open Hormuz because of mines in the water. The US seems to be calling that bluff as 'several' US navy ships passed through. Trump said "We're now starting the process of clearing out Hormuz".</p><p>I wonder if Iran will see that as an escalation as it evidently wasn't coordinated with them.</p><p>One thing that worries me a bit is that Trump is highlighting that many tankers are headed to the US to pick up oil cargoes. He seems to be excited about that but the flipside of it is that it will drive US oil and gasoline prices higher and it won't take long.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stocks/both-the-sp-and-nasdaq-indices-close-above-100-day-moving-averages-20260410/">Both the S&amp;P and NASDAQ indices close above 100 day moving averages</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/isreal-wil-announce-its-commitment-to-a-ceasefire-at-4-am-beirut-time-20260410/">Isreal wil announce its commitment to a ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut time</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/crude-oil-futures-settle-at-9657-20260410/">Crude oil futures settles at $96.57. Down sharply on the week</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-march-budget-deficit-for-march-16400-billion-versus-15675-billion-estimate-20260410/">US March Budget deficit for March -$164.00 billion versus -$156.75 billion estimate</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/israeli-broadcasting-authority-netanyahu-approves-every-attack-launched-in-beirut-20260410/">Israeli Broadcasting Authority Netanyahu approves every attack launched in Beirut</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/baker-hughes-rig-count-3-at-545-20260410/">Baker Hughes rig count -3 at 545</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/fed-nominee-warsh-nomination-hearing-will-be-delayed-20260410/">Fed Nominee Warsh nomination hearing will be delayed</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stocks/major-european-indices-close-mixed-20260410/">Major European indices close mixed. Higher for the week.</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-to-the-ny-post-preparing-military-if-iran-fails-to-comply-in-talks-20260410/">Trump to the NY Post: Preparing military if Iran fails to comply in talks</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/cnn-trump-had-a-tense-call-with-netanyahu-on-lebanon-20260410/">CNN. Trump had a "tense" call with Netanyahu on Lebanon</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/umich-preliminary-april-consumer-sentiment-476-versus-520-expected-20260410/">UMich preliminary April consumer sentiment 47.6 versus 52.0 expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-february-factory-orders-00-vs-02-expected-20260410/">US February factory orders 0.0% vs -0.2% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/internal-rift-threatens-irans-unified-front-ahead-of-islamabad-summit-report-20260410/">Internal rift threatens Iran’s unified front ahead of Islamabad summit - report</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/canada-march-employment-report-141k-versus-15k-estimate-20260410/">Canada March employment report 14.1K versus 15K estimate</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-march-cpy-33-yy-vs-33-expected-20260410/">US March CPY 3.3% y/y vs 3.3% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/feds-daly-if-oil-prices-come-back-down-a-rate-cut-is-not-out-of-the-question-20260410/">Fed's Daly: If oil prices come back down, a rate cut is not out of the question</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/investinglive-european-session-wrap-calmer-markets-ahead-of-us-iran-peace-talks-20260410/">investingLive European session wrap: Calmer markets ahead of US-Iran peace talks</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/iran-does-not-offer-any-goodwill-gestures-on-strait-of-hormuz-crossing-ahead-of-talks-20260410/">Iran does not offer any goodwill gestures on Strait of Hormuz crossing ahead of talks</a></li></ul><p>The markets had a brief respite from the headlines from the Middle East with the release of the CPI and the later the Michigan Consumer Confidence. </p><p data-start="0" data-end="667">The latest US CPI report showed a sharp headline acceleration driven primarily by energy, while underlying inflation trends remained relatively contained. Headline CPI rose 0.9% m/m, in line with expectations but well above the prior 0.3%, lifting the year-over-year pace from 2.4%. The surge was almost entirely due to energy, with the index up 10.2% and gasoline prices jumping over 21% on the month as geopolitical tensions pushed crude higher. Importantly, gasoline prices remain roughly 40% above pre-war levels, suggesting there could still be additional pipeline pressure in the near term—though that would likely reverse over time if a sustained ceasefire holds.</p><p data-start="669" data-end="1264">Beneath the surface, the core inflation data was more encouraging. Core CPI rose just 0.2% m/m for the second consecutive month, well below the 0.9% expected, with the year-over-year rate at 2.6% versus 2.7% expected. The supercore measure also eased to 0.18% m/m, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures—particularly outside of energy—are moderating. However, supercore on a year-over-year basis ticked higher to 3.14%, highlighting that progress remains uneven. Meanwhile, real weekly earnings declined by 0.9%, reversing the prior gain and pointing to some pressure on consumers.</p><p data-start="0" data-end="602">Overall, the report reflects a split narrative: a headline inflation spike driven by energy shocks, alongside a softer core backdrop that should offer some comfort to policymakers. Market reaction saw only modest USD weakness that quickly faded, with Fed pricing still indicating no rate moves this year. The key question going forward is whether the energy-driven rise spills over into broader inflation or proves temporary if geopolitical tensions ease.Later, a report from the University of Michigan on consumer confidence came in much weaker (at record low levels) due to the spillover impact from the war and the rise in gasoline prices. The preliminary April consumer sentiment index fell sharply to 47.6 from 53.3, well below the 52.0 estimate and marking the lowest reading on record. The decline was broad-based, with current conditions dropping to 50.1 and expectations falling to 46.1, as consumers across all demographics reported worsening views. The deterioration is largely tied to the Iran conflict and the surge in gasoline prices, which have jumped to around $4.15 nationally from $2.89 pre-war, weighing heavily on perceptions of personal finances, buying conditions, and the overall economic outlook.</p><p data-start="604" data-end="1200" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Inflation expectations also moved higher, adding to concerns. One-year expectations surged to 4.8% from 3.8%, the largest monthly increase in a year, while five-year expectations edged up to 3.4%. Although long-term expectations remain relatively contained, the sharp rise in short-term expectations highlights growing anxiety about near-term price pressures. Overall, while sentiment surveys can be volatile, the drop reflects a meaningful hit to consumer confidence driven by higher prices and uncertainty, with potential for improvement if energy prices ease and geopolitical tensions subside</p><p>North of the American's border, Canada’s March employment report showed modest improvement, with jobs rising by 14.1K, roughly in line with expectations and a rebound from the sharp -83.9K decline the prior month, while the unemployment rate held steady at 6.7% (slightly better than the 6.8% expected). The gains were driven by part-time employment (+15.2K), while full-time jobs were little changed, signaling a labor market that is stabilizing but still lacking strong momentum. Sector data was mixed, with gains in “other services” and natural resources offset by declines in finance and real estate, while on a year-over-year basis health care led job growth and manufacturing lagged. Wage growth picked up to 4.7% YoY—the strongest since late 2024—highlighting persistent inflation pressures despite softer hiring trends. Regionally, results were uneven, with weakness in British Columbia and steady conditions in Ontario, while provinces like Manitoba and Saskatchewan showed strength. Overall, the report suggests a labor market that is holding together after early-year weakness, with elevated unemployment reflecting slower hiring rather than layoffs, and firm wages keeping inflation concerns in play.</p><p data-start="0" data-end="634">Geopolitical developments in the Middle East this week were largely about positioning ahead of upcoming ceasefire and peace talks between Iran and U.S. delegates. Expectations are not for a sweeping resolution, but rather incremental progress—namely, reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Following the 14-day truce announced late Tuesday, a limited number of ships briefly transited the Strait, but renewed Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon led to another shutdown. However, Israel now appears to be aligning with a ceasefire framework, helping pave the way for this weekend’s negotiations and raising cautious optimism for progress.</p><p data-start="636" data-end="1437" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Markets responded positively to the de-escalation tone, particularly after President Trump stepped back from earlier rhetoric about “total annihilation” in his Easter Sunday message. U.S. equities rallied strongly, with the S&amp;P 500 rising close to 4% and the Nasdaq gaining 4.68% on the week. Oil prices reflected easing supply fears, dropping nearly 15% as traders priced in the potential for improved flow through the Strait. </p><p data-start="636" data-end="1437" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">In FX, the USD weakened broadly, with gains seen across most major currencies: EUR +1.82%, GBP +2.04%, CHF +1.38%, CAD +0.69%, AUD +2.53%, and NZD +2.69%, while the JPY was the lone exception, slipping modestly by -0.16% against the dollar. Overall, the tone shifted toward cautious optimism, with markets leaning on the idea that tensions may ease, even if only gradually.</p><p data-start="636" data-end="1437" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">As we head into the new week, much will depend on the weekend news and hopes for more peace talks with the Strait of Hormuz open. It that can be done, it would be a step toward a lower oil prices and with hopes, a lower potential inflation environmen. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Iranian officials land at Nur Khan Airbase in Islamabad under Pakistan’s Air Force escort ahead of peace talks, two Pakistani sources involved in talks </p><ul data-start="0" data-end="740" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node=""><li data-section-id="188pb3z" data-start="277" data-end="414"> Iranian delegation led by Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf arrived in Islamabad ahead of peace talks with U.S. </li><li data-section-id="1uuseo6" data-start="508" data-end="594"> Iran says talks with U.S. to begin if “preconditions are accepted” – Iranian media </li><li data-section-id="1yggorb" data-start="595" data-end="740" data-is-last-node=""> Iranian media says Iran’s delegation includes foreign minister, defence council secretary, central bank governor and several parliament members</li></ul><p>The U.S. delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance, and including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkopf are expected to arrive shortly. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Fars is reporting that </p><ul><li>Israel will announce it's commitment to a ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut time (it is 10:15 PM now in Beirut). </li></ul><p>The announcement gives a path to peace talks between the US and Iran this weekend...</p><p>WHat to expect?</p><p data-start="0" data-end="675">The U.S. position, led by JD Vance, is centered on security and stability. The primary goal is to eliminate any pathway for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, which means strict limits—or potentially a halt—to uranium enrichment, backed by strong verification and inspection measures. The U.S. is also pushing for the reopening and protection of the Strait of Hormuz to ensure steady global oil flows, along with broader de-escalation across the region, including curbs on Iran-backed proxy activity. At its core, the U.S. is seeking a framework that reduces military threats, stabilizes energy markets, and provides long-term security assurances.</p><p data-start="677" data-end="1349" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Iran’s position, represented by Abbas Araghchi, is focused on economic relief and sovereignty. The top priority is the lifting of sanctions—particularly those restricting oil exports and access to the global financial system. Iran also insists on maintaining its right to a civilian nuclear program, including uranium enrichment, while demanding an end to military pressure from the U.S. and its allies. Additionally, Iran is seeking recognition of its regional role and influence, along with firm guarantees against regime-change efforts. Overall, Iran is looking for a deal that restores economic stability while preserving its strategic autonomy.</p><p data-section-id="1egi243" data-start="108" data-end="135">U.S. delegation</p><ul data-start="136" data-end="378"><li data-section-id="1dz3r4i" data-start="136" data-end="201">JD Vance – leading the talks </li><li data-section-id="1j1pxvr" data-start="202" data-end="264">Steve Witkoff – key negotiator </li><li data-section-id="4ekebx" data-start="265" data-end="378">Jared Kushner – part of the diplomatic team </li></ul><p data-start="380" data-end="476">Vance is the central figure and seen as the main face of the U.S. side in these negotiations. It is probably good Kushner and Witkoff are playing behind Vance this time. </p><p data-section-id="1qcintm" data-start="483" data-end="510">Iran delegation</p><ul data-start="511" data-end="685"><li data-section-id="s4mhf0" data-start="511" data-end="575">Abbas Araghchi – leading diplomat </li><li data-section-id="1qcfsno" data-start="576" data-end="685">Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf – senior political figure </li></ul><p data-start="687" data-end="752">It’s still unclear if military figures (IRGC) will attend.</p><p data-section-id="bpusz5" data-start="759" data-end="797">Pakistan (host &amp; mediator)</p><ul data-start="798" data-end="1026"><li data-section-id="1cff1wm" data-start="798" data-end="868"> Led by the government of Shehbaz Sharif</li><li data-section-id="168ryef" data-start="869" data-end="1026"> Pakistani officials act as go-betweens (proximity talks) rather than having both sides face each other directly </li></ul><p data-section-id="10ph6lm" data-start="1033" data-end="1068">How the talks are structured</p><ul data-start="1069" data-end="1248"><li data-section-id="jhicgm" data-start="1069" data-end="1092"> Held in Islamabad</li><li data-section-id="m4n25y" data-start="1093" data-end="1156">“Proximity talks” → U.S. and Iran sit in separate rooms </li><li data-section-id="lyky9" data-start="1157" data-end="1248"> Pakistan shuttles messages between both sides</li></ul><p data-section-id="1lq28ec" data-start="1255" data-end="1273">Bottom line</p><ul data-start="1274" data-end="1413"><li data-section-id="1qgttbf" data-start="1274" data-end="1324">U.S.: Vance-led team (with Witkoff, Kushner)</li><li data-section-id="1lt7ta4" data-start="1325" data-end="1356">Iran: Araghchi + Ghalibaf</li><li data-section-id="yjdjis" data-start="1357" data-end="1413">Pakistan: mediator, not a direct negotiating party</li></ul><p data-start="1415" data-end="1562">This is a high-level but still cautious setup, reflecting how fragile trust is—especially with both sides not even sitting in the same room.</p><p data-start="1415" data-end="1562">Meanwhile, the troops are arriving with estimates of 1500 to 2000 troops arriving in coming days. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>The price of crude oil is settling at $96.57. That is down $-1.30 or -1.33% on the day.</p><p>For the week, the price is down $-16 or -14.29%. The price is also below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at $102.87 and $103.57. The big catalyst was the announcement of a cease-fire and the potential for the re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz. Although, not fully open (it is virtually closed still), the market is discounting some sort of reopening soon). The June contract is trading at $89.13.</p><p data-start="88" data-end="615">The price low on February 26 came in at $63.81, just ahead of the war starting on February 28. The initial upside move pushed prices to a close of $71.02 on March 2, before momentum accelerated sharply. That surge over the next few days took the price to a high of $119.48 on March 9. </p><p data-start="88" data-end="615">A sharp correction followed, with the low on March 10 reaching $76.73, but buyers stepped back in and drove the price higher again, peaking at $117.62 earlier this week. Since then, the market has seen another pullback, with the low this week coming in at $91.05.</p><p data-start="617" data-end="768" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Bottom line: The swings—from the mid-$60s to near $120 and back toward $90—underscore just how volatile and headline-driven this market has become.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior month -$308 billion </li><li>Federal budget deficit $164 billion versus $156.75 billion estimate. A year ago, the deficit was $161 billion</li></ul><p>Details:</p><ul><li>Fiscal 2026 year-to-date deficit $1.169 trillion versus $1.307 trillion in 2025. Down 11% YoY</li><li>March Net customs receipts and $22.16 billion</li><li>Budget outlays $549 billion versus $528 billion in March 2025</li><li>Receipt $385 billion, record for month of March, versus $368 billion in March 2025.</li><li>Corporate refunds up 77%</li><li>individual refunds up 9%</li><li>Defense spending 3% higher compared to one year ago</li></ul><p>Some additional looks:</p><ul><li>War-related outlays, such as for replenishing weapons ​inventories, would come in later months.</li><li>Customs duty ​collections softened in the month following the U.S. Supreme ‌Court's ⁠annulment of President Donald Trump's broadest global tariffs imposed under an emergency law.</li><li>Customs receipts totaled $22.2 billion in March, down from $26.6 billion in February and monthly ​totals in ​the low $30 ⁠billion range late last year, but up from $8.2 billion in March 2025.</li><li>After accounting for calendar-related ⁠adjustments ​of benefit payments, the March ​deficit would have been $250 billion, up $9 billion or 4% from ​March 2025.</li></ul><p>This also out, Trump plans to request $98 billion in supplemental funds for Iran war and more. </p><p>Earlier reports indicating the Pentagon has discussed a request of over $200 billion tied to war-related operations. However, President Donald Trump has not formally submitted that request to Congress, leaving uncertainty around the final size and timing. </p><p>Earlier expectations had been closer to $50 billion, but escalating costs—estimated at over $11 billion in just the first week—have raised the potential price tag significantly. This may be that number. </p><p>The lack of a formal request keeps markets in a wait-and-see mode, particularly as fiscal implications could influence yields, risk sentiment, and the USD.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>The Israeli Broadcasting Authority is reporting that PM Netanyahu approves every attack launched in Beiriut (Lebanon).</p><p>Pres. Trump is trying to get Israel and Netanyahu stop the attacks in Lebanon on Hezbollah. According to this report if there are additional tariffs, the buck stops at Netanyahu (and threatens the peace process).</p><p>As we head into the weekend, stocks are giving back earlier gains, with both the Dow and S&amp;P slipping into negative territory. The Dow is down -0.63% and the S&amp;P is lower by -0.19%. </p><p>The NASDAQ is still holding modest gains of +0.17%, but well off its session highs where it had been up 189 points. Technically, the index has also moved back below its 100-day moving average at 22,900.37 and currently trades around 22,873, tilting the near-term bias more to the downside technically.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>There is the Strait of Hormuz and then there is domestic production. In the current week, the Baker Hughes rig count fell -3 at 545. </p><p>Looking at the pieces:</p><ul><li>Oil rigs aree unchanged at 411</li><li>Natural Gas is down -3 at 127.</li><li>Total rigs -3 at 545.</li></ul><p>Crude oil is is trading up $0.57 at $98.45. However for the week, the price is down $-13.78 or -12.31%</p><p>Looking at the hourly chart, the swing area and falling 100 and 200 hour MAs are providing upside resistance between 101.14 to 103.57. Stay below keeps the sellers in play/control in the short term. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>In an interview with the New York Post</p><ul><li data-section-id="193nv7u" data-start="0" data-end="128">President Donald Trump said US warships are being reloaded with “the best ammunition” in case strikes on Iran resume </li><li data-section-id="1cfeck3" data-start="129" data-end="191"> Warned military action will follow if peace talks fail </li><li data-section-id="si2eyf" data-start="192" data-end="261"> Said outcome of negotiations should be known within ~24 hours </li><li data-section-id="x8eud2" data-start="263" data-end="355"> Peace talks taking place in Pakistan (Islamabad) following a two-week cease-fire </li><li data-section-id="r520jp" data-start="356" data-end="514"> US delegation includes JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner </li><li data-section-id="1o9r9v7" data-start="516" data-end="642"> Iran expected to be represented by Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf </li><li data-section-id="1ghkc58" data-start="644" data-end="866"> US demands include: <ul data-start="670" data-end="866"><li data-section-id="1t8fw3z" data-start="670" data-end="721"> Hand over ~1,000 pounds of enriched uranium </li><li data-section-id="d72n34" data-start="724" data-end="774"> Keep the Strait of Hormuz open to shipping </li><li data-section-id="cxcg2u" data-start="777" data-end="822"> End support for regional proxy groups </li><li data-section-id="1fzcs2x" data-start="825" data-end="866"> Address ballistic missile program </li></ul></li><li data-section-id="dlbl55" data-start="868" data-end="923"> Iran maintains it has a right to enrich uranium </li><li data-section-id="1itccdo" data-start="924" data-end="968"> Iran seeking lifting of US sanctions </li><li data-section-id="4od9cp" data-start="970" data-end="1061"> Strait of Hormuz only partially reopened; limited ship traffic since cease-fire </li><li data-section-id="unpay7" data-start="1062" data-end="1138"> Trump says reopening the strait is a critical condition for any deal</li><li data-section-id="qzukj0" data-start="1140" data-end="1231" data-is-last-node=""> Trump expressed distrust of Iran, citing conflicting statements on nuclear intentions</li></ul><p>The clock is ticking on this one. The U.S. is heading into talks with Iran, but at the same time, Trump is making it clear the military option is loaded and ready to go if things fall apart. </p><p>The key sticking points are uranium, the Strait of Hormuz, and broader security issues, and there’s still a wide gap between the two sides. </p><p>So while there is a cease-fire and negotiations are underway (for 2-weeks or so they say), the market should understand this is far from resolved — and the next 24 hours could quickly shift the story back toward escalation if a deal isn’t reached. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>The geopolitical tension continues with reports that Trump had a tense call with Israel Netanyahu on Lebanon. Trump wants Israel to slow down its bombings on Lebanon while negotiations for a cease-fire continue with Iran. Netanyahu does not want to stop the bombing. </p><p>In other geopolitical news:</p><ul><li>Iran also wants the release of blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations.</li><li>Kuwait says Iranian attacks overnight targeted National Guard facilities, caused injuries to a number of personnel, dealt with a total of 7 drone incursions in the last 24 hours.</li><li>Iranian military said that his forces had their finger on the trigger and remain fully ready due to the Israeli and the US failure to keep to their commitments of the ceasefire.</li><li>Meanwhile VP Vance warned Iran that Washington is “willing to extend the open hand” in this weekend’s negotiations but warned Tehran not to “try to play us.”:</li><li>Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem urged Lebanese officials to stop what he called “free concessions” to Israel, vowing the group’s resistance would continue “until the last breath.” He framed the conflict as a unified national effort and dismissed Israeli threats as ineffective, while warning that any escalation—especially large troop deployments—would lead to heavy losses. </li></ul><p>The price of crude oil is trading up $0.68 at $98.58. Although that is well off the high price of $117.63 reached on Tuesday's trade, the price remains stubbornly near the $100 level. Just prior to the war starting on February 28, the low price reached $63.60.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>In an unusual post on TruthSocial, Pres. Trump says: </p><p>Shares of Palantir reached a new low going back to June 2025 today at $122.68. The price is now trading at $128.20. The high reached $129.17.</p><p>It is great Trump has the time to post on his stock picks, with all the other stuff going. Amazing. Like never seen before. /s</p><p>Insider trading used to be a no-no, but it is becoming more and more acceptable. Go figure.</p><p>Bud Fox is on it.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior month 53.3</li><li>Consumer Sentiment 47.6 vs 52.0 estimate. Worst on record. Year on year -8.8%</li><li>Current conditions 50.1 versus 55.8 last month.Year on year -16.2%</li><li>Expectations and 46.1 versus 51.7 last month. Year on Year -2.5%</li><li>1 year inflation expectations 4.8% versus 3.8% last month</li><li>5 year inflation expectations 3.4% versus 3.2% last month</li></ul><p>Needless to say, the war in Iran is having its impact on the survey data. The data is the worst on record.</p><p>When you go to war. When gas prices spike higher ($4.15 is the National average now - from $2.89 before the war). When the end to the war is unknown, the consumer sentiment suffers.Inflation is simply too high and going higher. 2% target is now a long way away and with it, go hopes even for a Warsh cut when he takes over the Fed. </p><p>Having said that, survey data can be very fickle and move around. Nevertheless, the confidence decline is real, and people know it by going to the gas pump. If this price at the pump is to go back down, it will be "happy days again", but until then the consumer will worry.</p><p>If there is any bright spot, the 5 year inflation expectation only moved up to 3.4% from 3.2%. The 1-year inflation expectation was not so good with a 1% jump to 4.8%.</p><p>Comments from Director Joanne Hsu:</p><p>Consumer sentiment sank about 11% this month, extending a decline that began with the start of the Iran conflict, and is currently about 9% below a year ago. Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall. One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% and is now 6% below last April. Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values. Buying conditions for durables and vehicles worsened, again on the basis of high prices. Open ended comments show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy. Note that 98% of interviews were completed prior to the April 7th announcement of a temporary cease-fire. Economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated.Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 3.8% in March to 4.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025 (see chart, black dashed line and black circle). The current reading exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations ticked up from 3.2% last month to 3.4% this month, the highest reading since November 2025. In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019 and 2020, they were consistently below 2.8%.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/!/us-january-factory-orders-vs-01-expected-20200305" target="_blank" rel="follow">Prior </a>was +0.1%</li><li>Ex-transport +1.2% vs +0.4% prior (revised to +0.5%)</li></ul><p>Revisions to durable goods orders:</p><ul><li>Orders -1.3% vs -1.4% prelim</li><li>Ex-transport +0.9% vs +0.8% prelim</li><li>Capital goods orders nondefense ex-air +0.7% vs +0.6% prelim</li><li>Capital goods shipments nondefense ex-air +1.4% vs +1.3% prelim</li></ul><p>This is a solid report with the ex-transport number looking particularly good, but it's a third-tier economic indicator.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The U.S. factory orders report, officially known as the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report, is published monthly by the Census Bureau, typically about five weeks after the reference month. It provides a comprehensive look at demand across the entire manufacturing sector, covering both durable and non-durable goods. The report is closely watched by economists and market participants as a gauge of industrial activity and business investment trends.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">One important feature of the factory orders report is that it includes revisions to the advance durable goods data released about two weeks earlier. The preliminary durable goods figures often attract significant market attention on their own, but the factory orders release refines those estimates with more complete survey responses. This means traders and analysts revisit their initial assessments once the revised numbers are in hand, particularly for the volatile transportation and defense categories.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The report breaks down new orders, shipments, unfilled orders, and inventories, offering a layered view of manufacturing momentum. Core capital goods orders — excluding aircraft and defense — are especially valued as a proxy for business spending plans.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">In recent years the report has reflected the broader push-and-pull of post-pandemic normalization. Factory orders surged through much of 2021 and 2022 as supply chains strained to meet reopening demand, then moderated as interest rate hikes cooled goods spending. Through 2024 and into early 2025, readings were mixed, with periodic boosts from large aircraft and defense contracts offsetting softer demand in categories like machinery and primary metals, leaving the manufacturing sector in a holding pattern as businesses navigated an uncertain trade and policy environment.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><p data-path-to-node="1,0,0">Tehran divided over delegation powers</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="1,1,0">IRGC demands hardline security chief join U.S.-Iran peace talks</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="1,2,0">Iranian negotiators resist military pressure to include Zolghadr in team</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="1,3,0">IRGC demands that its missile program remain off Islamabad agenda</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="1,4,0">Internal rift threatens Iran’s unified front ahead of US negotiations</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="1,5,0">Power struggle in Tehran as IRGC moves to cage diplomatic delegation</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="2">Iran International reports that on the eve of the negotiations between the Islamic Republic and the United States in Islamabad, a severe disagreement has emerged among senior government officials in Iran regarding the composition and powers of the negotiating delegation.</p><p data-path-to-node="3">Along those lines, the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC has called for the inclusion of Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, in the negotiating delegation. This is a demand that has met with resistance from the negotiating team, who consider Zolghadr to lack the necessary experience for these strategic negotiations. In addition, the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC and the commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force have emphasized that the dispatched delegation must refrain from any negotiations regarding the Islamic Republic's missile program.</p><p data-path-to-node="3">Note that Iran International is an explicitly regime-opposed publication so this report should be taken with a grain of salt.</p><p data-path-to-node="3">For now, reports say that Iran's delegation has arrived in Pakistan and that a US delegation led byJD Vance is on the way. WTI crude oil is down 14-cents to $97.90 on the day, so there is some optimism that we make progress towards a deal.</p><p data-path-to-node="3">Today's trade is likely to be about position squaring into the weekend because it's not clear if we get progress or a breakdown in talks. For me, the two week timeline is extremely tight to get real progress as these things often take months. I also worry that Trump's threatening and maximalist style makes for fraught negotiations.</p><p data-path-to-node="3">That said, JD Vance has been said to oppose the war from the start so it may be in his interest to finesse a deal and make real concessions in order to make that happen. On the Iran side, they're digging in on Lebanon so that remains the place to watch.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior -83.9K</li><li>Employment change 14.1K vs 150K Estimate </li><li>unemployment rate 6.7% versus 6.8% expected. Prior 6.7%</li><li>full-time employment change -1.1K vs -108.4K last month </li><li>part-time employment change 15.2K vs +24.5 K last mont</li><li>participation rate 64.9% versus 64.9% last month</li><li>Average hourly wages among employees were up 4.7% on a year-over-year basis in March, the highest growth rate since October 2024 (not seasonally adjusted). Year-over-year growth in average hourly wages had previously hovered between 3.2% and 3.9% from January 2025 to February 2026.</li></ul><p> Looking at the components, some of the details:</p><ul><li data-section-id="f85vqc" data-start="0" data-end="107">Other services employment rose +15K (+1.9%) in March, reversing a similar-sized decline in February </li><li data-section-id="1t8c3a0" data-start="108" data-end="165"> Industry includes repair and maintenance services</li><li data-section-id="1jtjb67" data-start="166" data-end="219">Year-over-year: little changed in this sector </li><li data-section-id="zgw5d0" data-start="221" data-end="411">Natural resources employment increased +10K (+3.0%) <ul data-start="283" data-end="411"><li data-section-id="1jhryq7" data-start="283" data-end="344"> Nearly half of gains came from Alberta (+4.5K, +3.2%)</li><li data-section-id="1qkarg8" data-start="347" data-end="411">Year-over-year: little changed nationally and in Alberta </li></ul></li><li data-section-id="12v3la1" data-start="413" data-end="548">Finance, insurance, real estate, rental &amp; leasing fell -11K (-0.8%) <ul data-start="491" data-end="548"><li data-section-id="41xacf" data-start="491" data-end="548"> First notable monthly decline since November 2023</li></ul></li><li data-section-id="1r1ifr1" data-start="550" data-end="695">Health care &amp; social assistance: little changed in March <ul data-start="617" data-end="695"><li data-section-id="16y2asu" data-start="617" data-end="695"> But +94K (+3.3%) YoY, the largest annual job gain among industries </li></ul></li><li data-section-id="128jka0" data-start="697" data-end="777" data-is-last-node="">Manufacturing posted the largest annual decline <ul data-start="755" data-end="777" data-is-last-node=""><li data-section-id="npckzk" data-start="755" data-end="777" data-is-last-node="">-44K (-2.4%) YoY</li></ul></li></ul><p>More Details from Canada Statistics:</p><ul data-start="177" data-end="1877"><li data-section-id="5n26em" data-start="722" data-end="890">Across age groups: <ul data-start="751" data-end="890"><li data-section-id="1kwzpv9" data-start="751" data-end="804"> Core-age (25–54): unemployment steady at 5.8% </li><li data-section-id="13leh5n" data-start="807" data-end="856"> Youth unemployment: 13.8%, still elevated </li><li data-section-id="1s5mjnx" data-start="859" data-end="890"> Age 55+: 4.9%, down YoY </li></ul></li><li data-section-id="t9xbtb" data-start="892" data-end="1100">Wage growth accelerated: <ul data-start="927" data-end="1100"><li data-section-id="183s786" data-start="927" data-end="1019"> +4.7% YoY to $37.73 (strongest since Oct 2024) </li><li data-section-id="g6r5xh" data-start="1022" data-end="1100"> Underlying wage growth closer to ~3.6% after adjusting for composition </li></ul></li><li data-section-id="16p9mof" data-start="1102" data-end="1430">Sector breakdown: <ul data-start="1130" data-end="1430"><li data-section-id="6e4t70" data-start="1130" data-end="1229">Gains: <ul data-start="1149" data-end="1229"><li data-section-id="6cu73p" data-start="1149" data-end="1185"> Other services: +15K (+1.9%) </li><li data-section-id="19l3jnd" data-start="1190" data-end="1229"> Natural resources: +10K (+3.0%) </li></ul></li><li data-section-id="87j88s" data-start="1232" data-end="1293">Losses: <ul data-start="1252" data-end="1293"><li data-section-id="17uoyqc" data-start="1252" data-end="1293"> Finance/real estate: -11K (-0.8%)</li></ul></li><li data-section-id="15r62sz" data-start="1296" data-end="1430">YoY trends: <ul data-start="1320" data-end="1430"><li data-section-id="q4eak6" data-start="1320" data-end="1372"> Health care: +94K (+3.3%) (strongest growth) </li><li data-section-id="1jxgt8i" data-start="1377" data-end="1430"> Manufacturing: -44K (-2.4%) (largest decline) </li></ul></li></ul></li><li data-section-id="v1lzo9" data-start="1432" data-end="1877">Regional trends: <ul data-start="1459" data-end="1877"><li data-section-id="17wg52k" data-start="1459" data-end="1548">Weakness: <ul data-start="1481" data-end="1548"><li data-section-id="nfkqhu" data-start="1481" data-end="1548"> British Columbia: -19K (-0.7%), unemployment up to 6.7% </li></ul></li><li data-section-id="159p5lv" data-start="1551" data-end="1715">Strength: <ul data-start="1573" data-end="1715"><li data-section-id="qtkngk" data-start="1573" data-end="1603"> Manitoba: +11K (+1.5%) </li><li data-section-id="1d7w76i" data-start="1608" data-end="1676"> Saskatchewan: +5.8K (+0.9%), lowest unemployment at 5.0% </li><li data-section-id="vorfr9" data-start="1681" data-end="1715"> Nova Scotia: +3.9K (+0.7%) </li></ul></li><li data-section-id="1bnn5hj" data-start="1718" data-end="1810">Ontario: steady employment, but higher unemployment (7.6%) and regional weakness </li><li data-section-id="nfdjcc" data-start="1813" data-end="1877">Quebec: employment steady, unemployment fell to 5.4%</li></ul></li></ul><p data-start="1879" data-end="1897">Bottom line:</p><ul data-start="1898" data-end="2211" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node=""><li data-section-id="19rkd5s" data-start="1898" data-end="1959"> Labor market is stabilizing after early-year weakness </li><li data-section-id="1ennrqg" data-start="1960" data-end="2036"> Unemployment elevated vs pre-COVID due to slower hiring, not layoffs </li><li data-section-id="pkblvj" data-start="2037" data-end="2109"> Wage growth firming, which could keep inflation pressures sticky </li><li data-section-id="1lvq6wp" data-start="2110" data-end="2211" data-is-last-node=""> Overall tone: soft but not deteriorating—a market lacking momentum but holding together for now</li></ul><p>The USDCAD moved lower and broke below the 200 day MA and the 50% of the move up from the March 23 low. Both came in at 1.3816. However, the low from yesterday could not be broken and the price has rebounded back above the key technical levels.</p><p>For background, the Labour Force Survey, published monthly by Statistics Canada, provides comprehensive data on employment, unemployment, and labour force participation across Canada. Released on the first or second Friday of each month at 8:30 a.m. ET, the report surveys approximately 56,000 households and tracks employment changes by industry, province, full-time versus part-time status, and demographic characteristics. The survey measures not only net job creation but also unemployment rates, wage growth, and labour force participation, offering insights into the health of Canada's economy. The data is closely monitored by the Bank of Canada when setting monetary policy and by economists assessing economic conditions. At the moment, there are no further cuts priced in for the Bank of Canada.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-february-cpy-24-yy-vs-24-expected-20260311/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Prior </a>was +2.4% y/y</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">CPI 0.9% m/m vs +0.9% expected</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Prior +0.3% m/m</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Non-seasonally adjusted, unrounded +1.05% vs +0.47% prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Core CPI 2.6% vs 2.7% y/y expected</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Prior core 2.5%</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Core CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.9% expected</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Prior core +0.2%</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Real weekly earnings -0.9% vs +0.1% prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">CPI Supercore M/M +0.18% vs +0.350% prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">CPI Supercore Y/Y 3.14% vs 2.746% prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Energy index +10.2%</li></ul><p>The economists did a good job of forecasting the rise in energy prices. Gasoline prices were up 21.9% in this report but note that US gasoline prices are up 40% compared to pre-war so there is still more in the pipeline. Of course, with a ceasefire that will reverse over time.</p><p>Fed pricing continues to show no moves this year. There was some modest USD weakness on the release but it's mostly faded. The lower core number is likely behind the drop in the dollar.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Consumer price inflation has been on a gradual but uneven path lower since peaking above 9% in mid-2022. The Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening campaign succeeded in pulling headline CPI back below 3% by late 2024, but the final stretch toward the 2% target has proven stubborn, particularly in services.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Shelter costs, which make up roughly a third of the CPI basket, have been the single largest contributor to above-target inflation. Although private-sector rent measures have been cooling for over a year, the BLS methodology captures lease renewals with a significant lag. Most economists expect shelter disinflation to continue feeding through, but the pace has repeatedly disappointed.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The March report marks a sharp departure from the benign readings of recent months, driven almost entirely by energy. Economists largely nailed the call — gasoline surged 21.2% in the month, the largest monthly increase since the series began in 1967, as the Iran conflict sent crude prices spiking. But the pipeline isn't empty. US gasoline prices remain roughly 40% above pre-war levels, meaning further pass-through into upcoming reports is likely unless the ceasefire holds and prices retrace. If it does hold, that energy shock will reverse over the coming months, but with a lag.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Underneath the energy noise, the core picture was encouraging. Core CPI rose just 0.2% for the second straight month, and the supercore measure — stripping out food, energy, and shelter — printed a soft 0.18%, well below February's 0.350%. That deceleration will be welcome at the Fed, though policymakers will want to see whether the energy shock bleeds into broader prices before drawing conclusions.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/oil-prices-consolidate-ahead-of-the-us-iran-peace-talks-in-islamabad-whats-next-20260410/">Oil prices consolidate ahead of the US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad. What's next?</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/the-oil-market-faces-a-major-reckoning-if-us-iran-peace-talks-fail-20260410/">The oil market faces a major reckoning if US-Iran peace talks fail</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/iran-does-not-offer-any-goodwill-gestures-on-strait-of-hormuz-crossing-ahead-of-talks-20260410/">Iran does not offer any goodwill gestures on Strait of Hormuz crossing ahead of talks</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/after-talking-the-talk-it-is-time-for-us-and-iran-to-walk-the-walk-20260410/">After talking the talk, it is time for US (and Iran) to walk the walk</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/what-is-the-distribution-of-forecasts-for-the-us-cpi-20260410/">What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/germany-march-final-cpi-27-vs-27-yy-prelim-20260410/">Germany March final CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y prelim</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>WTI crude up 0.2% to $98.10 after briefly brushing the $100 mark</li><li>European indices see slight gains while US futures are flat</li><li>US dollar little changed, hold more mixed on the session</li><li>Gold up 0.1% to $4,768, Silver up 0.7% to $75.59</li><li>US 10-year yields flat at 4.29%</li><li>Bitcoin down 0.4% to $72,142</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">It was a calmer session but more of a case that markets are waiting with bated breath on what comes next in the US-Iran conflict. Or should I say what happens now as the ceasefire and truce transitions into negotiations. Both sides are slated to sit down in Islamabad to try and seek a peace deal over the weekend, so we'll have to wait and see on that.</p><p class="text-align-justify">For now, markets are keeping the optimism from the past few days but are not really pushing it any further today.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Oil prices bounced back a little but kept below the $100 mark, with WTI crude up 0.2% to $98.10 currently. The high earlier in the day saw a push to $100.40, before a slight retreat now.</p><p class="text-align-justify">As for risk trades, equities are holding steadier for the most part. Major indices in Europe are seeing gains of around 0.7% across the board while US futures are holding flattish after the slight gains yesterday. S&amp;P 500 futures are flat at the moment, awaiting further direction from Wall Street later.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In FX, major currencies didn't offer too much on the session. The dollar is lightly changed and keeping more mixed with EUR/USD holding just above 1.1710 and AUD/USD down 0.1% to 0.7170 currently.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Besides that, the bond market is also keeping quieter today while precious metals are seeing light changes after the more volatile moves in the past few days. 10-year yields in the US are flat at 4.29% while gold is also flat at $4,763 on the day.</p><p class="text-align-justify">After talking the talk, it is now time to walk the walk. Have a good weekend, everyone.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">As we count down to negotiations in Islamabad, it looks like Iran continues to want to hold its leverage ahead of talks with the US. According to the latest shipping data from Reuters, there's still very minimal and restricted activity along the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The data shows that only four dry-bulk ships have managed to sail through the strait in the past day. Meanwhile, there were four tankers that also managed to go through with three of them being Iran-linked tankers. Among those, it includes one that is a crude oil supertanker with two of them said to be returning back to Iran from previous destinations.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Meanwhile, the data says that there is currently one sanctioned gas tanker and one dry-bulk ship in the process of sailing out of the strait. Even by counting all of that alone, it is still less than ten vessels put together in moving through the Strait of Hormuz. And Iran continues to only favour ones that either they are linked with or for respective allies.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In essence, nothing has really changed even after the ceasefire. And I guess Iran has already made that clear, especially when they reaffirmed that the truce has been violated already. But with shipping data, at least we can verify any claims made out. And from what we can see above, it is clear that Iran continues to keep a stranglehold over passage along the strait.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Ahead of talks that will take place today or this weekend, Iran continues to want to hold some leverage over Trump and the US. Control over the Strait of Hormuz is their ace in the hole and they will hang that over the US president if so they must, in order to try and gain better negotiating prowess.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p>The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.</p><p>In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.</p><p>CPI Y/Y</p><ul><li>4.0% (2%)</li><li>3.7% (2%)</li><li>3.5% (5%) </li><li>3.4% (37%) - consensus</li><li>3.3% (33%)</li><li>3.2% (7%)</li><li>3.1% (2%)</li><li>3.0% (5%)</li><li>2.6% (5%)</li><li>2.4% (2%)</li></ul><p>CPI M/M</p><ul><li>1.7% (2%) </li><li>1.5% (2%)</li><li>1.2% (2%)</li><li>1.1% (3%)</li><li>1.0% (38%) - consensus</li><li>0.9% (33%)</li><li>0.8% (13%)</li><li>0.7% (2%)</li><li>0.6% (3%)</li><li>0.4% (2%)</li></ul><p>Core CPI Y/Y</p><ul><li>3.0% (2%)</li><li>2.8% (12%)</li><li>2.7% (65%) - consensus</li><li>2.6% (21%)</li></ul><p>Core CPI M/M</p><ul><li>0.4% (17%)</li><li>0.3% (61%) - consensus</li><li>0.2% (22%) </li></ul><p>Given the focus on the negotiations and the fact that an increase in March is widely because of the war, the market will likely look through today's data as everything hinges on the US-Iran talks anyway. We can see there's a huge dispersion in forecasts for the headline CPI, but a more contained view on Core CPI as it excludes food and energy prices. </p><p>The Fed is in a hard neutral stance but has opened the door for potential tightening in case inflation expectations start to drift higher and the war drags on longer than expected. The market is pricing in 7 bps of easing by year-end, so there's no rate hike or rate cut expected in 2026. </p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">It all comes down to this. After agreeing on a two-week ceasefire, it now boils down to negotiations between the US and Iran to see what becomes of this temporary truce. There have been a lot of mixed messages since the start of the week but all of that won't matter if we get positive news from talks in Pakistan today or during the weekend.</p><p class="text-align-justify">For now, markets are keeping calmer still but very much on edge amid the fragile truce ahead of talks. Let's take stock of the situation as we look to what we can expect when the two sides sit down.</p><ul><li class="text-align-justify">Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, conditional on talks and Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz</li><li class="text-align-justify">Iran confirms the ceasefire, reaffirming that they have put forward a 10-point proposal</li><li class="text-align-justify">The US says that they are negotiating based on a 15-point proposal instead, with "many terms already accepted"</li><li class="text-align-justify">Iran refutes that and says that three terms of the ceasefire agreement have already been violated</li><li class="text-align-justify">That especially when it comes to Lebanon, with Israel having its own agenda despite US promises</li><li class="text-align-justify">Trump threatens Iran with more military strikes if there is no deal and if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed</li><li class="text-align-justify">Iran then denies wanting to send a delegation to Islamabad for talks</li><li class="text-align-justify">The US camp continues to reaffirm that talks will go ahead and are expecting further developments</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">If you look past all the noise, there is one thing that is clear. US president Trump wants to de-escalate here and he really wants to tone down tensions so as to pull back from the conflict. That as he wants to find a way to allow for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen most importantly. And for broader markets as well, that is the most pertinent issue in this whole war.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Trump already is needing to face everything he hates in markets due to the conflict. If not for his ceasefire declaration, we're seeing higher oil prices, a falling stock market, a stronger dollar, higher bond yields, and more conviction for the Fed to not cut interest rates. Those are all the things he loathes, and they are all happening all at once.</p><p class="text-align-justify">To rub salt in the wound, surging energy prices is making it tough for the US consumer - not least with tariffs - and that is affecting his voting support ahead of the US midterms later this year.</p><p class="text-align-justify">So, there is a lot at stake here for Trump.</p><p class="text-align-justify">As such, there is a strong likelihood that we can expect the US to want to find some ground to work with to bring this over the line. The only issue is how can Trump angle that to sell a "total and complete" victory back home? Knowing him, he will definitely find a way regardless.</p><p class="text-align-justify">And that leaves us with two main questions after that. The first being will Israel be willing to just let the conflict die off? After all, they have their own agenda to push and have been seizing the opportunity to do so in recent weeks. The second and perhaps most importantly, will Iran continue to run a tight ship on control over the Strait of Hormuz? No pun intended there.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The latter is arguably the most important thing for markets. And it is also Iran's trump card in negotiating with the US this weekend. Again, no pun intended (okay, maybe). If there is only to be a more limited reopening of the strait, that will be a problem for markets still.</p><p class="text-align-justify">And I can imagine that to be the case unless the US does give in to some terms to appease Iran. The big sticking point is on uranium. Will Iran hang Hormuz over the US in not wanting to concede on this and give up enrichment plans? We shall see.</p><p class="text-align-justify">After talking the talk, it is now time to walk the walk.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Swiss consumer confidence and the Italian industrial production. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will be muted. </p><p>Today, the US and Iran delegations are expected to arrive in Islamabad to start negotiations on a lasting peace deal. The talks are set to begin tomorrow and will last for as long as needed to reach an agreement unless one of the parties withdraws before a deal. The global economy hinges on these negotiations.</p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, we have the Canadian employment report and the US CPI data. The Canadian employment report is expected to show 15K jobs added in March compared to -83.9K in the prior month and the unemployment rate to tick higher to 6.8% vs 6.7% prior. </p><p>Recent data has been pointing to weaker economic activity and elevated uncertainty with risks to growth tilted to the downside. The US-Iran war is expected to weigh even more on economic activity and put upward pressure on inflation. The Bank of Canada is likely to look through the inflation spike and keep rates steady because the current conditions actually point to a rate cut rather than a rate hike.</p><p>The US CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.4% vs 2.4% prior, while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.7% vs 2.5% prior. A spike in headline inflation is widely expected due to the US-Iran war, so the markets will likely look through the March report. The Fed is in a hard neutral stance but has opened the door for potential tightening in case inflation expectations start to drift higher and the war drags on longer than expected.</p><p>CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS</p><ul><li>11:00 GMT/07:00 ET - ECB's de Guindos (neutral - voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior +1.9%</li><li>HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y prelim</li><li>Prior +2.0%</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">This just reaffirms the initial estimates, with German headline inflation spiking amid higher energy prices from the US-Iran conflict. Destatis notes that: "Significant price increases for energy products are driving inflation. In particular, fuels and heating oil have become dramatically more expensive for consumers since the beginning of the war."</p><p class="text-align-justify">Of note, energy price inflation was seen up 7.2% compared to the same month last year. This was a decrease of 1.9% instead in February last month. Much of that was led by a surge in fuel prices, which were up 20% year-on-year.</p><p class="text-align-justify">As for the more important metric i.e. core annual inflation, that is seen at 2.5%. So, that is still holding thereabouts since the beginning of the year. However, expect higher energy prices to eventually feed through to other aspects of the economy and in turn drive up core prices too. That especially if the Middle East conflict does not ease in the week(s) ahead.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Looking at the more detailed breakdown, food price inflation was seen up by 2.3% year-on-year. Meanwhile, services inflation continues to run hot at 3.2% year-on-year. The latter remains a key sticking point in keeping more stubborn price pressures in Germany.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/australia-seeks-fuel-security-in-singapore-as-hormuz-disruption-hits-supply-20260410/">Australia seeks fuel security in Singapore as Hormuz disruption hits supply</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/japan-wholesale-inflation-jumps-as-boj-flags-stagflation-risk-from-oil-shock-20260410/">Japan wholesale inflation jumps as BOJ flags stagflation risk from oil shock</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/japan-to-release-more-oil-reserves-shift-supply-away-from-hormuz-routes-20260410/">Japan to release more oil reserves, shift supply away from Hormuz routes</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/china-inflation-turns-but-signals-bad-inflation-as-energy-costs-rise-and-demand-lags-20260410/">China inflation turns but signals “bad inflation” as energy costs rise and demand lags</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/boj-flags-stagflation-risk-if-middle-east-shock-deepens-but-says-japan-not-there-yet-20260410/">BoJ flags stagflation risk if Middle East shock deepens, but says Japan not there yet.</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/japan-finmin-katayama-govt-ready-to-take-decisive-action-but-wont-elaborate-20260410/">Japan finmin Katayama: govt ready to take decisive action but won’t elaborate</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/china-march-2026-cpi-10-yy-expected-12-ppi-05-yy-expected-04-20260410/">China March 2026 CPI 1.0% y/y (expected 1.2%) PPI 0.5% y/y (expected 0.4%)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-for-today-at-68654-vs-estimate-at-68313-20260410/">PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8654 (vs. estimate at 6.8313)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/bank-of-korea-holds-policy-rate-at-25-as-expected-20260410/">Bank of Korea holds policy rate at 2.5%, as expected.</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/powell-bessent-flag-systemic-risk-from-advanced-ai-models-20260410/">Powell, Bessent flag systemic risk from advanced AI models</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/adb-warns-asia-growth-to-slow-sharply-if-middle-east-disruptions-persist-20260410/">ADB warns Asia growth to slow sharply if Middle East disruptions persist</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/japans-katayama-signals-no-urgency-on-oil-risks-backs-g7-stance-on-conflict-20260410/">Japan’s Katayama signals no urgency on oil risks, backs G7 stance on conflict</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/japan-data-march-ppi-26-yy-expected-24-prior-2-20260409/">Japan data, March PPI 2.6% y/y (expected 2.4%, prior 2%)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/massive-dos-bocas-fire-adds-refining-risk-mexicos-flagship-refinery-stays-below-capacity-20260409/">Massive Dos Bocas fire adds refining risk. Mexico’s flagship refinery stays below capacity</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/Education/zandi-warns-payrolls-mislead-vci-signals-rising-us-recession-risk-whats-vci-you-ask-20260409/">Zandi warns payrolls mislead, VCI signals rising US recession risk (what's VCI, you ask?)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/nz-pmi-stays-in-expansion-but-confidence-drops-sharply-as-global-risks-build-20260409/">NZ PMI stays in expansion but confidence drops sharply as global risks build.</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/warsh-fed-hearing-delayed-by-paperwork-holdup-powell-set-to-stay-longer-20260409/">Warsh Fed hearing delayed by paperwork holdup (Powell set to stay longer?)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/white-house-warns-staff-not-to-bet-on-iran-war-raises-lack-of-ethics-concerns-20260409/">White House warns staff not to bet on Iran war, raises (lack of) ethics concerns</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/trump-touts-oil-recovery-but-hormuz-chaos-tells-another-story-20260409/">Trump touts oil flow recovery, but Hormuz chaos tells another story</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/trump-warns-iran-over-hormuz-transit-fees-as-shipping-tensions-escalate-20260409/">Trump warns Iran over Hormuz transit fees as shipping tensions escalate</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/imf-warns-iran-war-fuels-inflation-surge-and-global-growth-slowdown-20260409/">IMF warns Iran war fuels inflation surge and global growth slowdown</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/investinglive-americas-market-news-wrap-steps-toward-ceasefire-in-lebanon-lift-the-mood-20260409/">investingLive Americas market news wrap: Steps toward ceasefire in Lebanon lift the mood</a></li></ul><p>Summary:</p><ul><li data-section-id="1660ilw" data-start="140" data-end="238">Iran denies Islamabad talks, pushing back on WSJ report and linking talks to Lebanon ceasefire </li><li data-section-id="14likux" data-start="239" data-end="315"> Japan’s Katayama escalates FX rhetoric, flags readiness for intervention </li><li data-section-id="1hqxu31" data-start="316" data-end="394"> Fed leadership timeline slips as Warsh hearing delayed → policy continuity </li><li data-section-id="15uzhld" data-start="395" data-end="455"> BoJ flags stagflation risk if Middle East shock persists </li><li data-section-id="1vzqqnf" data-start="456" data-end="515"> South Korea holds rates amid inflation-growth trade-off </li><li data-section-id="7j31sy" data-start="516" data-end="582"> China data confirms “bad inflation” dynamic (PPI up, CPI soft) </li><li data-section-id="io6uqk" data-start="583" data-end="662"> Markets steady: Asia equities firmer, USD slightly stronger, oil rangebound</li></ul><p data-start="689" data-end="1063">Iranian state media denied that a delegation had arrived in Islamabad for weekend talks with the U.S., pushing back on earlier reporting and reiterating that Tehran has no plans to engage until a ceasefire is established in Lebanon. The denial reinforces the theme of conflicting signals around diplomacy, keeping uncertainty elevated despite the broader ceasefire backdrop.</p><p data-start="1065" data-end="1383">In Japan, Finance Minister Katayama stepped up verbal intervention, warning authorities are prepared to act “on all fronts” against market moves, citing heightened speculative activity across crude oil and FX. The rhetoric signals growing discomfort with currency volatility, though no concrete measures were outlined.</p><p data-start="1385" data-end="1674">On the Fed front, the Senate Banking Committee dropped plans for a hearing on nominee Kevin Warsh next week due to missing paperwork, effectively delaying the confirmation timeline. The development points to continued leadership continuity for now, removing a near-term policy uncertainty.</p><p data-start="1676" data-end="2103">Central bank messaging across Asia continues to reflect the same core dilemma. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino said Japan is not currently in stagflation but warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could push up inflation while weighing on growth. Similarly, South Korea’s central bank held rates steady, maintaining a cautious stance as policymakers balance rising price pressures against downside risks to activity.</p><p data-start="2105" data-end="2397">China’s latest data reinforced the emerging inflation narrative. Producer prices returned to growth (+0.5% y/y), ending a multi-year deflation streak, while consumer inflation undershot expectations (+1.0% y/y), highlighting the divergence between rising input costs and weak domestic demand.</p><p data-start="2399" data-end="2775">Markets were relatively steady. Asia-Pacific equities were mostly firmer, extending gains seen on Wall Street following ceasefire optimism, despite sporadic flare-ups. The US dollar edged higher, while major pairs were broadly stable. Oil traded in a tight range and gold was little changed, suggesting markets remain in a holding pattern as geopolitical uncertainty persists.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p data-start="3333" data-end="3417">Australia turns to Singapore for fuel security as Hormuz disruption tightens supply.</p><p>Summary:</p><ul data-start="28" data-end="557"><li data-section-id="1huhnee" data-start="28" data-end="109">PM Anthony Albanese in Singapore to secure fuel supply amid Hormuz disruption </li><li data-section-id="moqi6d" data-start="110" data-end="171"> Singapore supplies ~55% of Australia’s petrol imports (South Korea supplies ~22% and India~11.5%)</li><li data-section-id="18bm0ah" data-start="172" data-end="246"> Australia imports ~84% of refined fuel, highlighting vulnerability </li><li data-section-id="1vhzqki" data-start="247" data-end="317"> Domestic diesel shortages already impacting mining and agriculture </li><li data-section-id="us8jct" data-start="318" data-end="393"> Singapore refining hub also under strain due to crude supply disruption </li><li data-section-id="19uu9wv" data-start="394" data-end="476"> Australia supplying ~1/3 of Singapore’s LNG, reinforcing mutual dependency </li><li data-section-id="n5kgbt" data-start="477" data-end="557"> Broader regional coordination underway as Asia scrambles for energy security </li></ul><p data-start="606" data-end="806">Australia is intensifying efforts to secure fuel supplies as the disruption to global energy flows caused by the Middle East conflict exposes the country’s heavy reliance on imported refined products.</p><p data-start="808" data-end="1118">Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is in Singapore for high-level talks with his counterpart Lawrence Wong, with energy security at the top of the agenda. The visit underscores the strategic importance of Singapore, which serves as Australia’s largest supplier of petrol and a key provider of diesel and jet fuel.</p><p data-start="1120" data-end="1451">The timing reflects growing urgency. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and shipping activity still severely constrained despite a fragile ceasefire, supply chains across Asia remain under pressure. For Australia, the risks are particularly acute given its limited domestic refining capacity and high dependence on imports.</p><p data-start="1453" data-end="1853">Australia consumes roughly one million barrels of oil per day and imports the vast majority of its refined fuel needs. Over time, domestic refining capacity has declined sharply, leaving Australia reliant on regional hubs such as Singapore. Recent data shows that more than half of Australia’s petrol imports originate from Singapore alone, with additional supply coming from South Korea and India.</p><p data-start="1855" data-end="2157">The strain is already being felt domestically. Tight diesel supplies, critical for transport, mining, and agriculture, are beginning to impact key sectors of the economy. Australia’s geographic scale and distribution challenges amplify these pressures, making supply disruptions more difficult to manage.</p><p data-start="2159" data-end="2414">Singapore, while a critical partner, is not immune to the broader shock. As one of Asia’s largest refining centres, it depends on crude flows that have been disrupted by the conflict, limiting its ability to fully offset shortages elsewhere in the region.</p><p data-start="2416" data-end="2676">The relationship between the two countries is mutually reinforcing. Australia supplies a significant share of Singapore’s liquefied natural gas imports, creating a degree of interdependence that policymakers are now leaning on in a period of heightened stress.</p><p data-start="2678" data-end="2834">Canberra has also expanded engagement across the region, holding discussions with multiple Asian partners to diversify supply sources and ensure continuity.</p><p data-start="2836" data-end="3157">In effect, the episode highlights a structural vulnerability: Australia’s exposure to external supply shocks in refined fuels. While diplomatic efforts may ease near-term pressures, the broader lesson points to the importance of supply diversification and resilience in an increasingly fragmented global energy landscape. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>Japan’s wholesale inflation surge highlights rising cost pressures, with the BoJ warning of potential stagflation risks amid the Iran-driven energy shock.</p><p>Summary:</p><ul data-start="28" data-end="503"><li data-section-id="u4pbhq" data-start="28" data-end="103"><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/japan-data-march-ppi-26-yy-expected-24-prior-2-20260409/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Japan wholesale inflation (CGPI) rises 2.6% y/y, above expectations </a></li><li data-section-id="16d3umt" data-start="104" data-end="166"> Input costs surge, with import prices jumping 7.9% y/y </li><li data-section-id="1n47mdv" data-start="167" data-end="231"> Broad-based price pressures driven by oil, metals, chemicals </li><li data-section-id="15ww0jw" data-start="232" data-end="304"> BOJ flags vigilance on stagflation risk but says Japan not there yet </li><li data-section-id="1hqisxv" data-start="305" data-end="368"> Markets price ~60% chance of rate hike at April meeting </li><li data-section-id="1h5k7t0" data-start="369" data-end="435"> Iran war complicates policy: higher inflation vs weaker growth </li><li data-section-id="6sj23f" data-start="436" data-end="503"> Consumer confidence deteriorating sharply, adding downside risk </li></ul><p data-start="552" data-end="759">Japan’s wholesale inflation accelerated in March, reinforcing signs that cost pressures are broadening across the economy and sharpening the policy challenge for the Bank of Japan as it weighs its next move.</p><p data-start="761" data-end="1102">The corporate goods price index rose 2.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and picking up from the prior month, while monthly price growth also strengthened. The data points to a widening pass-through of higher input costs, with firms raising prices across sectors including machinery and food as energy, metals and chemical costs climb. </p><p data-start="1104" data-end="1472">A key driver has been the sharp rise in import prices, which surged nearly 8% year-on-year. This reflects the impact of the Iran conflict on global energy markets, with oil prices rising significantly amid disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. For Japan, which remains heavily dependent on imported fuel, the shock is feeding quickly into upstream pricing.</p><p data-start="1474" data-end="1722">Financial markets have responded by pushing yields higher, with shorter-dated government bond yields hitting record levels. Rate expectations have also shifted, with investors now assigning a meaningful probability to a near-term policy tightening.</p><p data-start="1724" data-end="2130">However, the policy outlook is far from straightforward. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino stressed that the economy is not currently in stagflation, noting that inflation remains around target and growth is still holding above potential. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that a prolonged conflict could create a difficult trade-off, with rising inflation coinciding with weakening economic activity.</p><p data-start="2132" data-end="2432">This dilemma is already beginning to take shape. While price pressures are building, consumer sentiment has deteriorated sharply, reflecting the strain of higher fuel costs on households. This suggests that the inflation impulse is being driven more by external shocks than by strong domestic demand.</p><p data-start="2434" data-end="2724">For the BoJ,<a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/boj-flags-stagflation-risk-if-middle-east-shock-deepens-but-says-japan-not-there-yet-20260410/" target="_blank" rel="follow"> the path forward hinges on how persistent the current shock proves to be</a>. A temporary spike in costs may not warrant aggressive tightening, but a sustained period of elevated energy prices could push inflation higher while eroding growth—forcing a more complex policy response.</p><p data-start="2726" data-end="2904">In short, Japan is not yet in stagflation, but the risks are rising, and the central bank is increasingly navigating a narrow path between inflation control and economic support. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.