<p>The price of the WTI crude oil futures are settling up $0.16 and $71 a barrel. The high price today reached $71.41. The low price was at $70.40.</p><p>Oil prices rebounded above $70.00, a level that has largely held sway over the past month, driven by tight supply and short covering by institutional investors. While weak demand from China and slowing Western economies have capped the commodity's gains, Wednesday's 50-basis-point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has sparked hopes of a revitalized US economy, potentially boosting oil demand from the world's largest consumer.</p><p>Today, Baker Hughes oil rig count was unchanged at 488</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The recent drop in oil prices hasn't curbed drilling yet but could hurt budgets for 2025.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="1">Sees progress on inflation and labor market cooling since mid-2023</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="2">Believes smaller initial move preferable to avoid premature victory declaration</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="2"> I see the risk that the Committee's larger policy action could be interpreted as a premature declaration of victory on our price stability mandate</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="2"> Although hiring appears to have softened, layoffs remain low</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="2">Consumer spending reflects a healthy economy</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="3">US economy remains strong with solid growth and near full employment</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="4">Labor market normalizing but measurement challenges create uncertainty</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="5">Inflation still above 2% target, core PCE above 2.5% y/y</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="6">Argues for measured pace toward neutral policy to ensure further inflation progress</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="7">Committed to working with FOMC colleagues despite disagreement on cut size</li></ul><p>It's normal for dissenters to publish essays or statements to explain themselves. Hers was the first dissent by a Fed Governor since 2005 but isn't particularly impactful in terms of policy. She is going to support 'moving at a measured pace' towards neutral going forward.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p class="text-align-start">Morgan Stanley anticipates a series of 25bp cuts from the Federal Reserve through mid-2025 and recommends maintaining short positions on USD/JPY, targeting a move towards 138.</p><p>Key Points:</p><ol><li><p>FOMC Rate Decision:</p><ul><li>The FOMC cut the federal funds rate by 50bp to 4.875%, reflecting ongoing progress on inflation and concerns regarding the labor market.</li></ul></li><li><p>Economic Projections Update:</p><ul><li>The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates four cuts this year, a significant shift from the previously expected one, aligning with softer inflation and labor market data.</li></ul></li><li><p>Fed's Commitment:</p><ul><li>The initial larger cut signals the Fed's dedication to staying ahead of inflationary pressures. Chair Powell emphasized that future cuts will depend on incoming data.</li></ul></li><li><p>Forecast for Future Cuts:</p><ul><li>Morgan Stanley projects two additional 25bp cuts this year and four more in the first half of 2025.</li></ul></li><li><p>FX Strategy:</p><ul><li>The firm's FX strategists recommend shorting USD/JPY as the Fed continues its easing cycle.</li></ul></li></ol><p>Conclusion:</p><p>Morgan Stanley's outlook supports a strategy of shorting USD/JPY in anticipation of ongoing Fed cuts, positioning the dollar for potential weakness as the easing cycle unfolds.</p><p class="text-align-start">For bank trade ideas, <a href="https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1726937851297000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1BkQI3xeSj00jDmGrxUoHq">check out eFX Plus</a>. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. <a href="https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1726937851297000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1BkQI3xeSj00jDmGrxUoHq">Get it here</a>. </p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>It was a poor finish to Friday for European stocks and that led to a negative week.</p><p>On the day:</p><ul><li>Stoxx 600 -1.5%</li><li>German DAX -1.4%</li><li>France's CAC -1.5%</li><li>UK's FTSE 100 -1.2%</li><li>Spain's IBEX -0.1%</li><li>Italy's FTSE MIB -0.8%</li></ul> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p class="text-align-start">Following the Bank of England's decision to maintain policy rates, Credit Agricole highlights the GBP's emerging status as a high-yield currency, supported by the potential for future easing.</p><p>Key Points:</p><ol><li><p>BoE Decision and Forward Guidance:</p><ul><li>The BoE kept rates unchanged in September while signaling future gradual easing. Only one member dissented for a 25bp cut, indicating a cautious approach.</li></ul></li><li><p>Gilt Holdings Reduction:</p><ul><li>The BoE plans to reduce gilt holdings by GBP 100 billion over the next year, reflecting a commitment to monetary tightening despite potential easing ahead.</li></ul></li><li><p>Market Reactions:</p><ul><li>UK rates markets have adjusted easing bets for November and December 2024, suggesting a slightly less dovish stance from the BoE.</li></ul></li><li><p>Economic Concerns:</p><ul><li>The BoE's ability to diverge from the ECB or Fed is questioned, especially if UK GDP data does not show significant improvement. Fiscal austerity plans may also hinder growth.</li></ul></li><li><p>GBP Outlook:</p><ul><li>The GBP may remain supported in the near term due to its rate advantage, but it could be vulnerable to profit-taking if upcoming retail sales or fiscal data disappoints.</li></ul></li></ol><p>Conclusion:</p><p>While the GBP stands to benefit from its status as a high-yield currency, caution is advised as it may face challenges from economic data and potential profit-taking in the near future.</p><p class="text-align-start">For bank trade ideas, <a href="https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1726929048662000&amp;usg=AOvVaw383kaNutXGq7qinapAJqqM">check out eFX Plus</a>. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. <a href="https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1726929048662000&amp;usg=AOvVaw383kaNutXGq7qinapAJqqM">Get it here</a>. </p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The US stocks have started to weaken with the broader S&amp;P and NASDAQ indices now down around -0.45%. The Dow industrial average is down -0.35%.</p><p>For the NASDAQ index it has moved back below the swing high price from August 22. Yesterday the price moved above that level at 18014.24, but closed just below it at 18013.98. The price action today has pushed through it and traders will now look toward the gap between 17826 and 17909 as a next downside target (yellow area on the hourly chart below) that would need to be broken to increase the sellers confidence.</p><p>On the topside getting back above the 18014.24 is needed to take some of the intraday bearishness out of the price action today.</p><p>Despite the declines, the major indices are still higher for the week. With the NASDAQ index up 1.44%, the S&amp;P index up 1.24%, and the Dow industrial average up 1.45%</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was -13.5</li></ul> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>And they're off....</p><p>The US stock market is open and the major indices are marginally lower to start the trading day after sharp gains yesterday. They snapshot of the market currently shows: </p><ul><li>Dow industrial average -113.26 points or -0.27% at 41911.93. Yesterday they Dow closed at a new record level.</li><li>S&amp;P index -12.8% points or -0.22% at 5700.04. The S&amp;P index also closed at a new record level yesterday.</li><li>NASDAQ index -5.33 points or -0.03% at 18008.65.</li></ul><p>For the trading week the major indices are higher:</p><ul><li>Dow +1.31%</li><li> S&amp;P index +1.31% </li><li>NASDAQ index +1.79%</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The Canadian dollar is in an interesting spot at the moment. </p><p>Domestically, real estate markets are clearly <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/life/homes/toronto-housing-market-marks-softest-conditions-in-16-years" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">hurting </a>and it's going to take at least 200 bps of rate cuts to fix it. But that's coming. The government is also extremely unpopular but a change is coming there too, in no more than 13 months.</p><p>In the meantime, the question is how well consumers and businesses hold up. Today's retail sales <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-july-retail-sales-09-vs-06-expected-20240920/" target="_blank" rel="follow">data </a>shows they're doing surprisingly well. Sales in July rose 0.9% while the advance indicator for August rose 0.5%.</p><p>This suggests what while mortgage holders are struggling, those who have paid off homes or have large amounts of home equity are continuing to spend. What makes it a difficult number to trust is that <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/canadian-consumer-spending-struggled-in-august-rbc-tracker-20240919/" target="_blank" rel="follow">RBC cardholder data</a> has been deteriorating at a decent clip. The Canadian jobs market has also softened.</p><p>In any case, the market is taking it at face value for now and USD/CAD has sagged down to 1.3546 from 1.3567.</p><p>There is also the global growth picture to consider. The Fed's 50 basis point cut on Wednesday is a great sign for a soft landing and other central bankers are also cutting. That may mean we're in the early stages of </p><p>As I <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/c-posts-13-day-high-fed-rate-cut-boosts-global-outlook-2024-09-19/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">told </a>Reuters yesterday:</p><blockquote>"The market is buying the 'soft landing' outlook," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive, referring to a scenario in which inflation is tamed without a painful recession or large rise in unemployment. "A dovish stance from the Fed is a major tailwind for global growth."</blockquote><p>On net, you have to be bullish that both the Canadian economy and global growth will hold up to be bullish on CAD. I'm not in that camp but the picture has certainly improved this week between the Fed at the latest data.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Prior IPPI MoM 0.0%</p><ul><li>Prior raw material price (RMPI) MoM 0.7%</li><li>IPPI YoY 0.2% vs 2.9% last month revised to 2.8%</li><li>RMPI MoM -3.1% vs -2.0% estimate</li><li>RMPI YoY -2.5% vs 4.1% last month</li></ul><p>Much lower than expectations. </p><p>For the IPPI </p><ul><li>Lower prices for energy and petroleum products were mainly responsible for the decline. Excluding energy and petroleum products, the IPPI decreased -0.2%.</li><li>The IPPI rose 0.2% year-over-year in August, marking the fifth consecutive increase. The main drivers of this growth were unwrought precious metals (+24.0%) and aluminum (+33.2%), which were boosted by economic uncertainty. Petrochemicals also saw a significant price increase (+12.2%). However, prices fell for diesel fuel (-17.1%), motor gasoline (-11.8%), and grain and oilseed products (-26.9%) over the same period.</li></ul><p>For the RMPI:</p><ul><li>The RMPI declined -3.1% month over month in August, led by lower prices for crude energy products (-5.0%). Excluding crude energy products, the RMPI fell -1.8%</li><li>The main driver of the year-over-year decline in August was lower crude energy prices, with conventional crude oil down 5.9% and synthetic crude oil down 8.5%. Other notable price drops included canola (-26.5%) and nickel ores and concentrates (-19.1%), largely due to elevated supply in these markets over the past 12 months</li></ul><p>Despite the softer numbers in this appraiser data, the retail sales works from an unexpected 0.9% versus 0.6%.</p><p>The USDCAD has moved lower about 12 pips and tests its 100 hour moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.35497. Yesterday, the price tested the 100-bar moving average and bounced later in the day (after failing on a break earlier in the day). The low price from Wednesday's trade also bounced off of the 100 bar moving average of the 4-hour chart.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prelim was +0.6%</li><li>August preliminary +0.5%</li><li>Ex-autos +0.4% vs +0.3% expected</li><li>Prior ex-autos +0.3%</li><li>Sales were up in seven of nine subsectors</li><li>Ex-autos and gas +0.6%</li></ul><p>These numbers are a surprise, especially the August preliminary data, which runs opposite to what <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/canadian-consumer-spending-struggled-in-august-rbc-tracker-20240919/" target="_blank" rel="follow">RBC cardholder data </a>has been showing.</p><p>For July, new car sales rose 2.2% and that drove much of the beat but it certainly wasn't the whole story as core sales rose 0.6% with food and beverage retailers up 0.8%, led by a 1.2% rise in supermarkets. Clothing also rose 1.1%. The laggard continues to be anything housing-related with building materials down 1.4%.</p><p>Other categories:</p><ul><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="4">Furniture, electronics and appliances: +0.2%</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="5">General merchandise retailers: +0.8%</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="6">Health and personal care retailers: +1.2%</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="7">Gasoline stations and fuel vendors: -0.6%</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="9">Sporting goods, hobby, book, and miscellaneous: 0.0%</li></ul><p>Year-over-year changes (unadjusted for inflation):</p><ul><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="0">Total retail trade: +0.9%</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="1">Motor vehicle and parts dealers: +1.2%</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="2">Building material and garden equipment: -4.2%</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="3">Food and beverage retailers: +0.2%</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="4">Furniture, electronics and appliances: -2.8%</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="5">General merchandise retailers: +3.8%</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="6">Health and personal care retailers: +5.8%</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="7">Gasoline stations and fuel vendors: +2.8%</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="8">Clothing and accessories retailers: +0.2%</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="9">Sporting goods, hobby, book, and miscellaneous: -4.9%</li></ul> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>I saw this nostalgic photo of the IBM office in Toronto in 1963 yesterday and it's a good one to share ahead of today's economic calendar, which is heavy on Canada.</p><p>Canadian retail sales and PPI are due at the bottom of the in what's an otherwise-quiet day on the data calendar. Yesterday, <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/canadian-consumer-spending-struggled-in-august-rbc-tracker-20240919/" target="_blank" rel="follow">RBC's Canadian retail sales tracker</a> was weak and that casts downside doubts the advance August retail sales reading buried in today's Canadian July sales report.</p><p>Otherwise, the main event is a series of speeches including the BOC's Macklem at 8:30 am ET, the ECB's Lagarde at 11:30 am ET and the Fed's Harker at 2 pm ET. We're also expecting to hear from the Fed's Bowman at some point on her dissent.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-governor-ueda-japan-economy-is-recovering-moderately-although-there-is-some-weakness-20240920/">BOJ governor Ueda: Japan economy is recovering moderately, although there is some weakness</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-governor-ueda-recent-data-confirms-economy-is-moving-in-line-with-our-outlook-20240920/">BOJ governor Ueda: Recent data confirms economy is moving in line with our outlook</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-governor-ueda-will-carefully-communicate-thinking-behind-policy-decision-with-markets-20240920/">BOJ governor Ueda: Will carefully communicate thinking behind policy decision with markets</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-governor-ueda-easy-monetary-conditions-are-in-place-as-real-rates-remain-negative-20240920/">BOJ governor Ueda: Easy monetary conditions are in place as real rates remain negative</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/gold-tops-2600-as-the-bulls-seek-out-the-next-leg-higher-20240920/">Gold tops $2,600 as the bulls seek out the next leg higher</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/fed-fund-futures-suggest-november-is-starting-to-resemble-a-coin-flip-again-20240920/">Fed fund futures suggest November is starting to resemble a coin flip again</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/what-are-the-main-events-for-today-20240920/">What are the main events for today?</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-mann-policy-needs-to-stay-restrictive-to-purge-inflationary-behaviours-20240920/">BOE's Mann: Policy needs to stay restrictive to purge inflationary behaviours</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-de-guindos-we-will-have-more-information-in-december-than-in-october-20240920/">ECB's de Guindos: We will have more information in December than in October</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-august-retail-sales-10-vs-04-mm-expected-20240920/">UK August retail sales +1.0% vs +0.4% m/m expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-august-ppi-02-vs-00-mm-expected-20240920/">Germany August PPI +0.2% vs 0.0% m/m expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/france-september-business-confidence-98-vs-97-prior-20240920/">France September business confidence 98 vs 97 prior</a></li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">Markets:</p><ul><li>GBP leads, JPY lags on the day</li><li>European equities lower; S&amp;P 500 futures down 0.3%</li><li>US 10-year yields down 0.4 bps to 3.735%</li><li>Gold up 1.0% to $2,614.02</li><li>WTI crude down 0.3% to $71.72</li><li>Bitcoin up 0.6% to $63,410</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">The BOJ rounded off the central bank bonanza on the week and that led to some volatile movement in the Japanese yen during the day. USD/JPY dipped to a low of 141.73 ahead of BOJ governor Ueda's press conference but rallied afterwards from his remarks, climbing up by over 1% to 144.30 levels now.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Ueda more or less dodged any suggestions of an imminent rate hike in October and that is what is arguably weighing on the yen.</p><p class="text-align-justify">He also said that markets remained "unstable", referring to previous remarks from his colleagues when they were asked about whether or not the conditions were right to hike rates again.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Besides the yen, other major currencies didn't get up to much during the session. The dollar fell yesterday but is holding its ground today as equities get a bit of a check back following the rally in the day before.</p><p class="text-align-justify">GBP/USD did rise up to a high of 1.3340 after a more upbeat UK retail sales but is now trading back just under 1.3300, up just 0.1% on the day.</p><p class="text-align-justify">With equities being kept in check and bonds also not doing all too much, there's not much to work with so far for the dollar.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In the commodities space though, gold bulls are making a play as they look to seal a firmer break above $2,600. The precious metal is trading to fresh record highs again, looking poised for the next leg higher. Rock on. 🤘🏼</p><p class="text-align-justify">I wish you all a pleasant weekend and will catch you guys again next week. Have a good one. </p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">The dollar fell in trading yesterday but there's no extension to that so far today. Besides USD/JPY, other dollar pairs remain relatively muted after some light extension to the ranges earlier. Here's a snapshot of things currently:</p><p class="text-align-justify">GBP/USD did nudge up to a high of 1.3340 after the upbeat UK retail sales data but has pared that advance back to 1.3285 currently.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Meanwhile, the other dollar pairs are keeping in narrower ranges and still lacking appetite overall. EUR/USD remains confined with large option expiries <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Orders/fx-option-expiries-for-20-september-10am-new-york-cut-20240920/" target="_blank" rel="follow">here</a> also in play, at least for now.</p><p class="text-align-justify">USD/JPY is the main mover as it looks to clip the 144.00 level next. In the big picture though, the pair is still caught in a series of lower highs in recent times.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The move higher today comes as the BOJ kept monetary policy change unchanged. And Ueda also offered no real suggestions of tightening policy in October next. As things stand, he still claims that markets are "unstable". And BOJ policymakers have said that as long as markets stay that way, they would be uncomfortable in hiking rates again.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In the bond market, 2-year Treasury yields are seeing a bit of a push and pull on the day. It was down to around 3.57% earlier but is now back up closer to 3.60%. 10-year yields were also marked down to 3.70% at the lows but are now up to just above 3.72%.</p><p class="text-align-justify">As much as the USD/JPY bounce is looking to play out, there's still limited scope for a major rebound unless dollar sentiment switches up.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Traders are looking to try and see how far they can push the Fed in terms of pricing for November. So, there's that to consider. And then there's the 23.6 Fib retracement level of the swing lower from July to the low earlier this month, seen at 144.85. That before larger offers are lined up at the figure level itself at 145.00.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Those will be the bigger levels to watch as we gauge the extent of this latest rebound in the pair.</p><p class="text-align-justify">But again, I would argue it needs to be vindicated by movement in rates as well. So, we'll see about that.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Eurostoxx -0.4%</li><li>Germany DAX -0.5%</li><li>France CAC 40 -0.2%</li><li>UK FTSE -0.5%</li><li>Spain IBEX +0.1%</li><li>Italy FTSE MIB -0.3%</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">This comes as S&amp;P 500 futures are also seen down 0.1% with Nasdaq futures down 0.2% currently. Overall, it's just a minor check back for stocks on the week. Investors are still contemplating some post-Fed musings and we'll see what Wall Street has to say about things later in the day.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">Up, up and away for gold? The bulls are certainly looking poised and are angling for the next leg higher now as we approach European trading. Price is running above the $2,600 mark to fresh all-time highs as the post-Fed musings continue to play out.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Traders are starting to <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/fed-fund-futures-suggest-november-is-starting-to-resemble-a-coin-flip-again-20240920/" target="_blank" rel="follow">push odds of another 50 bps rate cut by the Fed in November</a> and that is a tailwind for gold.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The run higher in gold this year has been quite unrelenting. The precious metal is up a whopping 26% year-to-date already. I'm an advocate for higher gold prices but the more this carries on, the more I feel that we're overdue for a violent and sharp correction at some point.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In the big picture, overall sentiment remains largely positive for gold at this point. But I would definitely like to see a retracement of sorts all before we get to the seasonal buying rush in December to January. So, we'll see I guess.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>In the European session, the only highlight was the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-august-retail-sales-10-vs-04-mm-expected-20240920/" target="_blank" rel="follow">UK Retail Sales</a> report which surprised to the upside across the board. In the American session, we have the Canadian Retail Sales and PPI data. Downside surprises will likely reinforce the markets expectations for a 50 bps cut from the BoC at the upcoming meeting with the probability at the moment standing around 62%. </p><p>Central bank speakers:</p><ul><li>08:00 GMT - BoE's Mann (hawk - voter)</li><li>08:30 GMT - BoE's Bailey (neutral - voter)</li><li>12:15 GMT/08:15 ET - BoC's Macklem (neutral - voter)</li><li>15:00 GMT/11:00 ET - ECB's Lagarde (neutral - voter)</li><li>18:00 GMT/14:00 ET - Fed's Harker (neutral - non voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior 97</li><li>Manufacturing confidence 99</li><li>Prior 99</li><li>Services confidence 98</li><li>Prior 98</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">Sentiment for the industry and services remains unchanged from the month before. But the good news at least is that the employment climate has returned back to its long-term average of 100, up from 98 previously.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>German DAX futures -0.4%</li><li>UK FTSE futures -0.5%</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">This comes with US futures also marginally lower by around 0.1% currently. Equities enjoyed some post-Fed euphoria in trading yesterday but the party is meeting a bit of a pause as we turn over to the new day. That is keeping the dollar more muted in general as well among the major currencies space to start the session.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior +0.2%</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">The slight bump in August owes mostly to energy prices (+0.8%). If you strip that out, producer prices were actually flat on the month in Germany. Looking at the other individual breakdowns, intermediate goods prices fell by 0.3%, capital goods prices rose by 0.1%, durable consumer goods rose by 0.2%, and non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.1%.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior +0.5%; revised to +0.7%</li><li>Retail sales +2.5% vs +1.4% y/y expected</li><li>Prior +1.4%; revised to +1.5%</li><li>Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +1.1% vs +0.5% m/m expected</li><li>Prior +0.7%; revised to +1.0%</li><li>Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +2.3% vs +1.1% y/y expected</li><li>Prior +1.4%</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">UK retail sales beat on estimates again in August with a rise in almost all categories. Some supermarkets and clothing retailers reported a boost because of warmer weather and end-of-season sales. And looking to sales volumes in the three months to August, that is seen up 1.2% when compared with the three months to May.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Overall, it's a positive picture to wrap up the summer period in the UK. That will help to give the BOE more breathing room in keeping rates higher for the time being.</p><p class="text-align-justify">GBP/USD nudges up slightly to 1.3305 now, up 0.2% on the day.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">The dollar fell in trading yesterday as the post-Fed digestion continues to play out. Equities ripped higher but so far today, there hasn't been much follow through. USD/JPY is down slightly as the BOJ keeps monetary policy unchanged but dollar pairs in general are holding on to narrow ranges thus far. Meanwhile, S&amp;P 500 futures are down marginally by just 0.1% currently.</p><p class="text-align-justify">It's a question now of how much market players want to push the narrative of a more dovish Fed. We are starting to see the November decision <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/fed-fund-futures-suggest-november-is-starting-to-resemble-a-coin-flip-again-20240920/" target="_blank" rel="follow">resemble closer to a coin flip</a> now. So, the pricing there will be something to watch out for.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Looking to the session ahead, there won't be much on the agenda to influence that unfortunately.</p><p class="text-align-justify">UK retail sales is on the agenda and expected to show another increase in consumption activity. High price pressures have been weighing on this particular front in the UK for a while now, so we'll have to see if there is some optimism to carry through ahead of the holiday shopping spree in the months ahead.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Besides that, BOJ governor Ueda will be delivering his press conference later at 0630 GMT as well.</p><p class="text-align-justify">0600 GMT - Germany August PPI figures0600 GMT - UK August retail sales data0645 GMT - France September business confidence</p><p class="text-align-justify">That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">The Fed might be signaling that they intend to cut by just 25 bps each in November and December. However, they've shown this week that they can be bullied into a decision by markets. The onus now lies on economic data in the weeks ahead to vindicate the Fed's outlook.</p><p class="text-align-justify">So, if we are to see worse data especially in the labour market, that could potentially trigger market players to start thinking they can bully the Fed into another 50 bps rate cut the next time around.</p><p class="text-align-justify">That will be something to be mindful about as a potential risk for the dollar and broader markets in general.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">It wasn't just the BOJ that was the only Asian central bank in focus today. The PBOC was also on the agenda but left the loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged, even though there were some expectations for a cut. Here's the round up of the week in central banks so far:</p><ul><li class="text-align-justify"><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/federal-reserve-september-interest-rate-decision-50-basis-point-cut-20240918/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Federal Reserve September interest rate decision: 50 basis point cut</a></li><li class="text-align-justify"><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/powell-opening-statement-were-committed-to-preserving-our-economys-strength-20240918/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Powell opening statement: We're committed to preserving our economy's strength</a></li><li class="text-align-justify"><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/powell-qa-we-concluded-that-50-basis-point-cut-was-the-right-thing-20240918/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Powell Q&amp;A: We concluded that 50 basis point cut was the right thing</a></li><li class="text-align-justify"><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-leaves-bank-rate-unchanged-at-500-as-expected-20240919/" target="_blank" rel="follow">BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 5.00%, as expected</a></li><li class="text-align-justify"><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/china-leaves-1-and-5-year-loan-prime-rates-lpr-unchanged-20240920/" target="_blank" rel="follow">China leaves 1- and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged</a></li><li class="text-align-justify"><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-japan-leaves-rates-unchanged-as-widely-expected-20240920/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as widely expected</a></li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">USD/JPY is keeping a little lower on the day, now seen at 142.27 and down from the high of 142.93 in early Asia trading. But that also owes in part to lower Treasury yields again. 2-year yields are down 3.4 bps to 3.570% while 10-year yields are down 2.3 bps to 3.716%.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Besides that, major currencies are keeping in tighter ranges with the dollar licking its wounds after the fall yesterday.</p><p class="text-align-justify">There is still some post-Fed digestion to work through, with traders having to consider what the Fed might do in the coming months. Are they going to try and bully the Fed again? Or will economic data vindicate the dot plots put out on Wednesday?</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.