<p>This news has been in the works, but the announcement has been made - Trump's administration will revoke the temporary legal status of more than half a million migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela:</p><ul><li>these migrants have been warned to leave the country before their permits and deportation shield are cancelled on 24 April</li></ul><p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c33706jy774o" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">More here. </a></p><p>-</p><p>This is something to watch with respect to the US labour market:</p><ul><li>many of these migrants have been legally working in the US under the humanitarian parole program</li><li>the revocation is likely to lead to some short-term disruption (shortages) in the labor market, particularly in industries that heavily rely on immigrant labor, such as agriculture, construction, hospitality, and healthcare</li><li>its likely to lead therefore to higher wage costs (higher wages) if basic supply and demand economics holds </li></ul><p>There will be flow-on effects such as lower payments made into Social Security and Medicare also. </p><p>-</p><p>Market participants, including the Federal Reserve, will be keeping an eye on the higher costs and other economic impacts. At the margin the impact is likely to be the Fed holding rates for longer, they keep telling us they are trying to assess economic developments as policies flip and flop (tariffs on and off and on and off and so on). If you are a trader it'll pay to keep an eye on developments also. </p><p>-</p><p>The latest from the FOMC:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-19-mar-fed-keeps-rates-unchanged-see-two-cuts-in-2025-20250319/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 19 Mar: Fed keeps rates unchanged. See two cuts in 2025</a></li></ul><p>IKR?</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Japan and China resumed economic talks in Tokyo on Saturday—their first in six years—in an effort to ease tensions between the two countries amid growing trade pressure from the United States. </p><p>When asked if U.S. tariffs were part of the discussions, Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya said they were not a central focus in any of Saturday’s meetings. He added that Japan and South Korea had agreed to maintain close cooperation and keep open communication with the U.S., following separate talks held with South Korea earlier that day. </p><p>He did not provide details on what was discussed with China’s Wang concerning U.S. tariffs.</p><p>As a ps, I posted this on Friday:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-senator-steve-daines-will-visit-china-for-trade-talks-20250321/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">US Senator Steve Daines will visit China for trade talks</a></li></ul><p>Daines met with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng on Saturday and will meet with Premier Li Qiang on Sunday. The reports on Saturday's meeting didn't really contain much of substance. The two will have discussed trade relationships. We await any constructive news. Trump has so far jacked up tariffs on China by 20%, so there is a lot of work to be done.</p><p>Say analysts at HSBC:</p><ul><li>“It is notable that the only US tariffs that have not been delayed or alleviated are those imposed on China on February 4 and March 4"</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-we-can-talk-about-china-tariffs-20250321/">Trump: We can talk about China tariffs</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-january-retail-sales-06-vs-04-expected-20250321/">Canada January retail sales -0.6% vs -0.4% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-williams-current-modestly-restrictive-policy-is-entirely-appropriate-20250321/">Fed's Williams: Current modestly-restrictive policy is 'entirely appropriate'</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/more-from-feds-williams-were-not-in-a-hurry-to-make-next-mon-policy-move-20250321/">More from Fed's Williams: We're not in a hurry to make next mon policy move</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-march-consumer-confidence-145-vs-130-expected-20250321/">Eurozone March consumer confidence -14.5 vs -13.0 expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/feds-goolsbee-business-contacts-are-waiting-on-capital-spending-in-light-of-tariffs-20250321/">Fed's Goolsbee: Business contacts are waiting on capital spending in light of tariffs</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/what-fedex-earnings-reveal-about-the-state-of-the-economy-20250321/">What FedEx earnings reveal about the state of the economy</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-stournaras-all-available-information-points-to-another-rate-cut-in-april-20250321/">ECB's Stournaras: All available information points to another rate cut in April</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/feds-waller-i-preferred-to-continue-current-pace-of-balance-sheet-runoff-20250321/">Fed's Waller: I preferred to continue current pace of balance sheet runoff</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/king-charles-made-an-offer-to-trump-to-join-the-commonwealth-hoping-to-cool-tensions-20250321/">King Charles made an offer to Trump to join the Commonwealth, hoping to cool tensions</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-february-new-housing-price-index-01-versus-01-last-month-20250321/">Canada February new housing price index 0.1% versus -0.1% last month</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-unswayed-at-efforts-to-craft-tariff-deal-report-20250321/">Trump unswayed at efforts to craft tariff deal - report</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/bakers-hughes-oil-rig-count-1-at-486-20250321/">Bakers Hughes oil rig count -1 at 486</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>WTI crude oil up 20-cents to $68.27</li><li>US 10-year yields up 1.7 bps to 4.25%</li><li>Gold down $22 to $3021</li><li>S&amp;P 500 up 0.1%, Nasdaq up 0.5%</li><li>USD leads, AUD lags</li></ul><p>It was a strange day in markets and I suspect that the quad witching had something to do with it. Equities were beaten up early but came back to life when Trump said there was 'flexibility' on tariffs ahead of April 2 and that he was going to talk with Xi. Prior to that the US dollar was broadly strong but it gave some back afterwards.</p><p>Aside from that, it looked like flows were in charge. The euro and pound bottomed out right at the European close in a flurry of USD strength. That partly unwound later but still left the dollar solidly higher on the day in a reversal of the recent trend. The euro touched 1.0798 from a high of 1.0861 in Europe. It bounced from the figure to end at 1.0815.</p><p>The Canadian dollar was in focus with retail sales data released. USD/CAD rose after the data as it modestly missed estimates and hit 1.4375 but the advance reading for February sales was better than feared and that move unwound along with the better risk mood and a bounce in oil prices.</p><p>Gold hit an air pocket shortly after the US equity open in a quick fall to $3000 from $3035. Bids at the figure held though and that started a slow rebounded to $3023 last.</p><p>Overall, it wasn't a big day for news or market moves. The comments from Fed officials highlighted the uncertainty on the outlook and a willingness to wait on economic data. That was totally in-line with what Powell said on Wednesday.</p><p>Have a great weekend.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Is the long-term bull market in the US dollar finally over?</p><p>Plenty of research notes this week highlight the end of the era of 'American exceptionalism' and that's been a trading theme so far this year as the US dollar has sagged (though it's bounced a tad today). </p><p>In any case, the speculative money has been squeezed out of the US dollar futures trade with CFTC positioning data showing that net USD positioning is short for the first time this year.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The USD was mixed in trading this week. </p><p>How did the greenback do vs the major currencies? Looking at the change % below, the dollar is higher vs the EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD and NZD. It is lower vs the CHF and the CAD. The biggest gain was vs the AUD at 0.79%. The greenback fell by -0.14% vs both the CHF and the CAD. </p><p>During the week the negative rates unchanged, the Swiss National Bank rates by 25 basis points, the US Federal Reserve Rates unchanged in the Bank of England also kept its rates the same.</p><p>Below is a summary of the changes for the week vs the USD:</p><ul><li>EUR: +0.50%</li><li>JPY: +0.41%</li><li>GBP: +0.10%</li><li>CHF: -0.14%</li><li>CAD: -0.14%</li><li>AUD: +0.79%</li><li>NZD: +0.14%</li></ul><p>In other markets this week what were the changes:</p><p>In the US debt market, yields moved lower across the curve: </p><ul><li>2-year yield fell -7.5 basis points at 3.946% </li><li>5-year yield fell -9.0 basis points at or .003%</li><li>10 year yield fell -7.4 basis points at or .246%</li><li>30 year yield fell -3.5 basis points 4.591%</li></ul><p>In the US stock market the major indices were mixed:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average rose 0.91%</li><li>S&amp;P index rose 0.13%. The modest gain this week snapped a four week losing streak</li><li>NASDAQ index-0.41% and is down for the fifth consecutive week.</li></ul><p>In the European equity markets, the major indices moved higher:</p><ul><li>German DAX -0.41%</li><li>France's CAC +0.18%</li><li>UK's FTSE 100 +0.17%</li><li>Spain's Ibex, +2.65%</li><li>Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.98%</li></ul><p>In other markets:</p><ul><li>Crude oil rose 1 dollar or 1.49%</li><li>Gold traded to a new record high of $3057.51. The price rose $36.48 or 1.22%.</li><li>Silver fell $-0.90 or -2.7%</li><li>Bitcoin rose $1326 or 1.66%</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The euro is on track to finish the week slightly lower but that follows two weeks of gains on a German agreement to suspend the debt brake in what the market sees as a shift to a more-active fiscal policy.</p><p>With that, analysts at CIBC see a steadily rising euro over the course of the forecast horizon to end 2026 when they see EUR/USD hitting 1.15. Part of that is the 'loss of American exceptionalism' that's a theme that's gripped the FX market.</p><p>On the way to 1.15, CIBC sees the euro finishing this year at 1.12.</p><blockquote>Structural reform accompanied by German infrastructure spending supports the notion of narrowing US/EU growth differentials and accordingly a longer term EUR/USD rally. Meanwhile, given that the Eurozone looks on course to maintain a residual current account surplus over the course of the next 2-3 years, a bias towards an apparent crowding in of investment flows supports less appetite for external assets. Given the scope for an extended position adjustment, as a by-product of a higher growth trajectory, we now anticipate EUR/USD extending towards 1.12 by year-end.</blockquote><p>Another spot where they see pronounced USD weakness is against the yen with that pair falling to 138.00 this year from 149.19 currently.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p data-start="94" data-end="567">In light of rising tariff risks, elevated inflation expectations, and stretched equity/credit valuations, Goldman Sachs outlines the strategic case for commodity investing. Far from being just a play on rare "supercycles," commodities can provide attractive long-term returns, portfolio diversification, and superior inflation protection — particularly during late-cycle phases or supply shocks when both equities and bonds tend to falter.</p><p data-start="569" data-end="586">Key Points:</p><p data-start="588" data-end="628">1️⃣ Returns Go Beyond Inflation 📈</p><ul data-start="632" data-end="802"><li data-start="632" data-end="710">Commodity futures offer a "risk premium" for bearing price volatility.</li><li data-start="714" data-end="802">This premium supports positive long-term returns beyond just tracking inflation.</li></ul><p data-start="804" data-end="850">2️⃣ Powerful Diversification Benefits 🔀</p><ul data-start="854" data-end="1144"><li data-start="854" data-end="933">Commodities have low correlation to traditional assets in normal times.</li><li data-start="937" data-end="1025">Correlation turns negative when most needed — during late cycles or disruptions.</li><li data-start="1029" data-end="1144">Direct commodity exposure is more diversifying than commodity producer equities, which track stock indices.</li></ul><p data-start="1146" data-end="1202">3️⃣ Superior Inflation Hedge vs. TIPS and REITs 💹</p><ul data-start="1206" data-end="1412"><li data-start="1206" data-end="1298">Broad commodity indices often outperform TIPS and REITs during inflationary periods.</li><li data-start="1302" data-end="1412">Commodities are more directly tied to price pressures and less sensitive to rising interest rates.</li></ul><p data-start="1414" data-end="1820" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Conclusion:</p><p data-start="1414" data-end="1820" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Goldman Sachs emphasizes that commodities offer a compelling long-term investment case, particularly in high-inflation, uncertain macro environments. They not only outperform traditional inflation hedges like TIPS and REITs but also enhance diversification and deliver an added return premium, making them a valuable strategic allocation in diversified portfolios.</p><p data-start="1414" data-end="1820" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">For bank trade ideas, <a href="https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1742668293363000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1rGtij3S2wKSjLWjQZqv8R">check out eFX Plus</a>. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. <a href="https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1742668293363000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1rGtij3S2wKSjLWjQZqv8R">Get it here</a>.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>USD/CAD rose as high as 1.4373 today but has trimmed that back by 40 pips and is closing in on unchanged on the day.</p><p>The pair rose after today's Canadian retail sales data, starting a 40-pip climb that's been now fully reversed. Mixed in with that move was a broader USD rally as stock markets were beaten up. As for the retail sales report, I'm not sold on the idea that it was a bad one and neither is CIBC, who highlighted that the 0.6% decline (vs -0.4% exp) came after a 2.6% gain in December.</p><p>"All told, the weakness in January and February appears to be a reversion to more trend-like activity and isn't a cause for concern," CIBC writes. </p><p>Notably, the advance estimate for February was -0.4% which isn't bad in light of all the tariff angst though clean reads are going to be tough with the HST holiday from Dec 15 to Feb 15 followed by the removal of the carbon tax on April 1.</p><p>CIBC:</p><blockquote>Consumer spending was clearly improving in response to lower interest rates in H2 2024. And looking through the volatility shows a normalization in activity in Q1 following the start of the GST holiday. However, tariff uncertainty may inject caution into consumption ahead on concerns around employment prospects, depending on what the tariff outcome is on April 2nd. Consumption is therefore likely to slow over the first half of the year, but accelerate in H2 and 2026 if a worst-case tariff scenario is avoided.</blockquote><p>As for the loonie, the rebound today was helped along by Trump saying he was 'flexible' on tariffs. Canada is one of the countries in the cross-hairs but Trump is finding few allies in his push to make it the 51st state. His talk of subsidies to Canadian industry is also bizarre given that the US runs a manufacturing surplus with Canada. The driver behind the US trade deficit with Canada is purely oil, which is sold south at a discount.</p><p>That said, Trump lieutenants have hinted at a fresh position on April 2 so there is some optimism the worst will be avoided. I can't imagine we get a move out of the 1.42-1.45 range until we get a clearer picture on that.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Oil -1 at 486</li><li>Natural gas +2 at 102</li><li>Total rigs +1 at 593</li></ul><p>The price of crude oil is trading up $0.32 and $68.39. For the week, the price is up about 1.8%.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>European major indices are closing the day mostly lower with the exception being Spain's Ibex. </p><p>A snapshot of the closing levels shows: </p><ul><li>German DAX, -0.47%</li><li>France's CAC -0.63%</li><li>UK's FTSE 100 -0.63%</li><li>Spain's Ibex, +0.33%</li><li>Italy's FTSE MIB -0.39%.</li></ul><p> For the trading week, the indices were mixed:</p><ul><li>German DAX, -0.41%</li><li>France's CAC, +0.18%</li><li>UK's FTSE 100 +0.17%</li><li>Spain's Ibex +2.65%</li><li>Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.98%</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The tariff dance continues with Trump talking about tariffs. There were various mixed messages but at least he's not drawing a hard line in the sand.</p><p> Asked about possible exemptions to the April 2 tariffs, Trump said: "There will be flexibility." Asked if China can do anything to head off trade war: "We can talk." He added that he will be talking to Xi (there is a rumored mid-June summit).</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has trimmed the decline to 18 points and the Nasdaq is down just 0.1%.</p><p>In FX, we're seeing small signs of a reversal in the weakness in the commodity currencies and strength in the US dollar.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>London Heathrow will resume flights tomorrow but losing a day will likely be felt for a few days travel plans get rebooked</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Repeats that April 2 will be 'liberation day'</li><li>Some of that money will come back to us as tariffs</li><li>Musk is at Pentagon to address costs</li><li>I want car companies to build here</li><li>Says he will be speaking with China's Xi</li></ul><p>The US dollar has made a move higher in the past few minutes in part due to a report saying that France has floated harsh retaliations against the US. Most of this is the usual rhetoric but I take some comfort in him opening up the door to at least negotiating with China.</p><ul><li>There will be flexibility on tariffs</li><li>Basically it's reciprocal</li><li>We can't be expected to carry Canada</li></ul><p>The comments about Canada are non-sense, as usual. The only reason the US has a surplus with Canada is because Canada sells the US discounted oil.</p><p>More:</p><ul><li>We are going to have a full ceasefire very soon in Ukraine</li></ul> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The euro has dipped on this headline, which suggests more escalation in the trade war.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was -13.6</li></ul><p>This reading matches the lowest in a year.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Shares of FedEx are down 9.2% and traded today at the lowest since May 2023. That comes on a lower earnings guide and concerns about the macro economy. There were some revealing details in the conference call.</p><p>CEO Raj Subramaniam noted some of thing things that have been weighing on the economy.</p><p>"Weakness in the industrial economy continued to pressure our higher-margin B2B volumes," he said. "The current environment, however, is adding uncertainty to demand." </p><p>Perhaps most-interesting was a comment from Brie Carere, FedEx's Chief Customer Officer who said this:</p><blockquote>"From an outlook perspective, we think that we have given you a very prudent forecast for the fourth quarter and that this incorporates the feedback that we've had from our customers around the world. I would say that from a feedback perspective, I think first, the #1 thing that we keep getting asked is has there been a pull forward. We did not see any significant pull forward in Q3 [their FY ends May 31]. We did see a little volatility in APAC kind of at the end of February, early March. But for the most part, a pull forward is really hard, so we have not seen that, actually. In all the sales calls that I've done over the last 90 days, I've actually only met one customer who attempted it and they regretted it because they ended up storing some excess inventory."</blockquote><p>That goes against some of the assumptions that are built into Q1 economic views. Most observers expect businesses to build up inventories and undoubtedly there is some of that going on but her comment reveals that we're still in a just-in-time economy where turns dominate rather than flexibility.</p><p>Looking ahead, CFO John Dietrich said there is no help coming.</p><p>"I think it's reasonable to assume that the macro environment is not going to significantly improve at least for the first half of FY '26..." With their odd fiscal year that would basically mean softness through calendar 2025.</p><p>The company now projects FY '25 adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $18 to $18.60 compared to our $19 to $20 prior range.</p><p>Finally, the indications from Carere are that companies will pass on tariff costs.</p><blockquote>"As far as kind of how customers are planning, we're having a lot of conversations about being able to move the network as they require... I would say, to the point on inflation, that we are talking to a lot of customers who are anticipating that they will increase prices or already have."</blockquote><p>In short, there are some real problems in the economy.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The UK Sun is out with a bit of a bizarre one.</p><p>They claim that Kier Starmer hand-delivered a letter from King Charles to Trump with an offer to visit the King, which Trump immediately accepted. That's nothing new as Trump visiting Queen Elizabeth in his last tenure and is a fan of the royal family. Then the story takes a twist:</p><p>Plans are allegedly in the works to make the USA the next "associate member" of the Commonwealth, the <a href="https://www.the-sun.com/royals/13833861/charles-trump-secret-offer-kier/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">report </a>says. The offer would be presented to Trump on the visit with the plan being discussed "at the highest levels".</p><p>"Canada, of which the King is head of state, is part of the Commonwealth of Nations and including America may dampen the current conflict."</p><p>None of this makes any sense to me, but that's the UK press.</p><p>Update: Trump responded to this story and said "I Love King Charles. Sounds good to me!" </p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Waller offered a rare dissent from a Fed governor this week but it was related to the pace of the balance sheet runoff.</p><ul><li>Slowing or stopping runoff will be appropriate as we get closer to ample reserves</li><li>In my view we're not there yet because reserve balances stand at over $3 trillion and this level is abundant</li><li>No evidence that banking system is getting close to ample level of reserves</li></ul> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was -0.1%</li></ul><p>USD/CAD has been tracking higher today and is up 33 pips to 1.4356.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>S&amp;P 500 futures are down 48 points or 0.85%, which is near the pre-market low. The usual mix of tariff worries is weighing but there are also technical factors in the mix with a notional $4.7 trillion in options expiring today. </p><p>Quad witching are days when there is the expiration of:</p><ul><li>stock index futures</li><li>stock index options</li><li>stock options </li><li>and single stock futures</li></ul><p>Increasingly these products are the tail that wags the dog.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>As Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee speaks on CNBC, US stocks are pushing lower.</p><p>The futures are in now implying: </p><ul><li>Dow industrial average -320 points</li><li>S&amp;P index -45 points</li><li>NASDAQ index down -190 points</li></ul><p>US yields may lower with the 2-year yield -2.6 basis points at 3.931%. The 10 year yield is trading down -2.7 basis points or 4.206%.</p><p>Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee says that when you live uncertainty you have to wait for things to clear up.</p><p data-start="0" data-end="1122">He acknowledges rising uncertainty and anxiety in the economy, particularly regarding capital spending. While current conditions may be a temporary shock, he stresses the need for a steady, long-term approach from the Fed. He notes that markets seek quick information, but waiting is necessary, especially with uncertainty around tariffs. He highlights economic resilience, with strong data and progress on inflation and unemployment, says that rates 12-18 months from now will be lower. However, he warns that delaying cuts will lead to a backloaded approach, with tariffs currently a key risk. Beyond tariffs, the Fed must consider tax cuts and broader economic trends. He acknowledges that economic slowing would justify a rate cut but emphasizes the need to revise the outlook if inflation expectations rise. Goolsbee firmly supports the Fed’s commitment to 2% inflation and warns of the dangers of stagflation, which could complicate policy decisions. If market expectations for long-run inflation increase, the Fed would have to act, though there is no simple response to stagflationary pressures.</p><p data-start="1124" data-end="1486" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Bias: Goolsbee leans slightly dovish but remains cautious especially with tariff uncertainty and its impact on inflation. He supports patience in rate decisions and expects cuts, yet he acknowledges inflation risks and does not dismiss the possibility of a policy shift if conditions change. His stance suggests he is neither fully dovish nor hawkish but is waiting for more clarity before committing to a firm direction.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>When you have a lot of uncertainty you have to wait for things to clear up</li><li>There has been a decided turn towards anxiety and waiting on capital spending among business contacts</li><li>Fed needs to be a steady hand and take the long view on the economy</li><li>Still a lot of strength in the economy right now</li><li>Imports are only 11% of GDP, so one time tariffs that are not followed by retaliation are more likely to be transitory</li><li>Before judging how monetary policy reacts to tariffs, Fed needs to know how long the tariffs last, possible retaliation, pass through to consumers</li><li>The bigger the tariff supply shock is, the harder it will be for the Fed to look through them</li><li>I'm not a hawk or a dove, I'm a data dog</li><li>I still believe the economy is resilient and if there is progress on inflation rates will be lower in 12-18 months</li><li>When there is uncertainty, you need to wait for the dust to clear</li></ul><p>He's framing tariffs and offering a sense of how the Fed is looking at them.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior month -0.1%</li><li>Canada new housing price index 0.1% versus -0.1% last month</li><li>index rises to 124.5 from 124.4 last month. A year ago, the index was at 124.4.</li></ul><p>The gain this month reversed the decline last month</p><p class="sd-first-para">The New Housing Price Index (NHPI) measures changes over time in the selling prices of new residential houses. The prices are those agreed upon between the contractor and the buyer at the time the contract is signed. The detailed specifications for each new house remain the same between two consecutive periods.</p><p>The prices collected from builders and included in the index are market selling prices less value-added taxes, such as the federal Goods and Services Tax and the provincial harmonized sales tax.</p><p>The survey covers the following dwelling types: new single homes, semi-detached homes and townhomes</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was +2.5% (revised to +2.6%)</li><li>February advance reading -0.4%</li><li>Jan ex-autos +0.2% vs -0.2% expected</li><li>Jan motor vehicle and parts dealers -2.6%</li><li>Jan furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliances retailers +3.0% (a good sign, though perhaps skewed by HST holiday)</li></ul><p>This is a decent number on the headline and particularly on ex-autos but my focus is on February after tariff threats turned real. The -0.4% is surprisingly good and should help the loonie.</p><p>There are some real cross-currents in the Canadian economy right now and a lot of angst. The signals from the housing market have been poor but spending is holding up.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Charlie Gasparino is out with a report in the New York Post highlighting the state of play on tariffs.</p><p>He highlighted a plan that was floated in Republican circles last week that would leave tariffs off Canada, Mexico and Europe.'</p><p>"The talk is that they give into our demands for certain things, like stopping fentanyl from pouring across the northern and southern borders, and purchase more US manufactured goods, and we drop the levies," the <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/03/21/business/trump-remains-cold-to-tariffs-deal-after-wall-street-tantrum-sources/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">report </a>says.</p><p>It says that 'at least for now' Trump isn't willing to go along with it while highlighting recent comments from Kevin Hassett that highlight progress. However there was also this:</p><blockquote>"An outside adviser who was weighing the tariff solution last week told On The Money he has shifted his focus away from a tariff solution to taxes because of Trump apparent opposition to a deal."</blockquote><p>April 2 looms.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.