<p>USD/JPY is notably lower, from an early high above 156.50 its fallen to lows under 155.75. </p><p>Major FX elsewhere has outperformed the USD also, EUR, AUD, CAD, GBP, NZDf .... all are higher against the big dollar. </p><p>Apart from what has been posted there is nothing fresh or new. </p><p>USD index (DXY) 30 minute candles </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>No further details at this time. </p><p>Bloomberg report:</p><ul><li>Trump is poised to invoke emergency powers as part of his plan to unleash domestic energy production, according to people familiar with the matter</li><li>aiming to cut energy costs by 50%</li><li>greenlighting drilling, pipelines, and power plants</li><li>eliminating regulations</li><li>expedite energy projects</li><li>Its believed Trump will use existing authorities related to energy production and supply, focusing on energy security and reducing costs, especially for fossil fuels.</li></ul><p>More US energy production is likely to be a headwind for the price of oil. </p><p>***</p><p>In general, when a U.S. president declares a national emergency, they gain access to broad executive powers that allow them to bypass certain legal and regulatory restrictions. These powers, derived from over 100 special statutory provisions, enable the president to reallocate military funds, impose economic sanctions, freeze assets, control transportation, limit trade, and deploy troops domestically. They can also seize communication facilities, restrict civil liberties, and take emergency measures in areas like public health, cybersecurity, and national defense. However, Congress can challenge or terminate the emergency, and courts may review actions to ensure they align with constitutional limits. </p><p>Not all of those powers will be relevant for an 'energy' emergency, but like I said, in general. </p><p>This pic may be of a sunrise for the US energy sector. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>News like this can impact the price of TSLA.</p><p>Awaiting any further detail / denials. </p><p>more to come </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>China's Vice President Han Zheng met soon to be VP Vance in Washington, according to state media:</p><ul><li>Han says he is willing to work with the US to promote stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-US relations.</li><li>says US-China shared interests and cooperation potential remain vast despite disagreements; dialogue and consultation can be strengthened.</li><li>says economic and trade relations are important issues of common concern.</li></ul><p>Han Zheng met with US business representatives and Tesla CEO Elon Musk.</p><ul><li>Musk says Tesla is willing to deepen investment and cooperation in China.</li><li>Han welcomes Tesla and other US companies to invest in China.</li></ul><p>Xinhua report. </p><p>Chinese President Xi Jinping was invited to the inauguration by Trump, has sent Han in his place.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Trump will take office at noon, US Eastern time, on January 20. he says he'll sign close to 100 executive orders within a few hours of being sworn in. </p><p>Earlier we had a guide to what he'll be addressing with his EOs:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/leaks-around-trumps-day-one-executive-orders-have-not-mentioned-tariffs-at-all-20250119/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Leaks around Trump's 'day one' executive orders have not mentioned tariffs at all</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-spoke-at-a-rally-hinted-at-action-on-immigration-and-energy-nothing-on-tariffs-20250119/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Trump spoke at a rally - hinted at action on immigration and energy (nothing on tariffs)</a></li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Apple has cut prices on several iPhone models in China</p><ul><li>prices under CNY 6,000</li></ul><p>This follows China's government's latest subsidy announcement.</p><p>Apple's phones are at the upper end of the pricing spectrum in China (and elsewhere!) and lose out to much more price-competivie Chinese brands (running different o/s and hardware, of course). </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Japan’s core machinery orders rose 3.4% in November, exceeding expectations and signaling a recovery in capital expenditure ahead of the Bank of Japan's interest rate review. </p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-japan-expected-to-raise-rates-this-week-but-there-is-a-hurdle-to-overcome-first-20250120/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Bank of Japan expected to raise rates this week - but there is a hurdle to overcome first</a></li></ul><p>Orders from manufacturers jumped 6.0%</p><ul><li>non-manufacturers saw a 1.2% increase</li></ul><p> Analysts attribute the strength to labor shortages and digitalization-driven investment. </p><p>Despite uncertainties, including the incoming U.S. Trump presidency, business sentiment has improved.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>According to a Bank of America survey on FX and rates sentiment, the long dollar trade is now considered the most crowded, with positioning emerging as the primary obstacle for the currency. </p><p>Analysts note that dollar positioning presents a significant challenge, a concern they also share. They highlight that long dollar positions are notably elevated compared to historical trends, especially in relation to the past year. </p><p>Additionally, FX positioning helps explain why only 20% of respondents consider a long U.S. dollar position their strongest conviction trade, despite 42% anticipating 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to exceed 5%.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Rightmove House Price Index for January indicates that UK home asking prices have shown their biggest early-year rise since 2020.</p><ul><li>average price of properties coming to market rose by 1.7% between Dec. 8 and Jan. 11 to 366,189 pounds ($445,944), 9,000 pounds below a peak hit in May last year, Rightmove said (December figure was -1.7%)</li><li> Compared with the same period a year ago, asking prices were 1.8% higher (prior +1.4%)</li><li>number of new properties coming to market since Dec. 26 was up 11% from a year earlier while the number of buyers contacting agents about properties for sale was 9% higher and agreed sales rose by 11%. </li></ul><p>Info via Reuters report. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p class="text-align-start vertical-align-baseline">Core machinery orders data is a highly volatile series</p><ul><li>its used as a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months</li></ul><p>The Bank of Japan is meeting this week, on January 23 and 24. A rate hike is widely expected and data such as this, which is admittedly a volatile data point, will support such expectations. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Repeating what I posted last week as a heads up to this. </p><p>Monday January 20 is the Martin Luther King Day holiday in the US:</p><ul><li>The two major stock markets - the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq - will be closed on Monday, 20 January 2025</li><li>Bond markets are closed. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) recommends bond trading closed (SIFMA is the trade group that represents the bond market).</li></ul><p>As for the CME futures trade ... well, its complicated :-)</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/trading-hours.html#tradeDate=2025-01-20" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">CME summary here</a></li></ul><p>My summary:</p><p>Equity Products &amp; Interest Rate Products (ps. times are US Central time, add 1 for US Eastern time):</p><ul><li>Friday, January 17 Regular Hours</li></ul><ul><li>Sunday, January 19 5:00pm open</li><li>Monday, January 20<ul><li>12:00pm Trading Halt</li><li>5:00pm Trading Resumes</li></ul></li><li>Tuesday, January 21 Regular Hours</li></ul><p>FX &amp; Crypto:</p><ul><li>Friday, January 17 Regular Hours</li><li>Sunday, January 19 5:00pm open</li><li>Monday, January 20<ul><li>4:00pm Trading Halt</li><li>5:00pm Trading Resumes</li></ul></li><li>Tuesday, January 21 Regular Hours</li></ul><p>NYSE</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Trump spoke on Sunday at a rally in Washinton:</p><ul><li>going to stop the invasion of our borders</li><li>going to unlock the liquid gold under our feet </li><li>will act tomorrow with historic speed and strength</li><li>spoke with Apple's Cook, he said they'd make massive investment in the US</li></ul><p>Earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-to-issue-executive-orders-on-immigration-energy-government-hiring-policies-soon-20250119/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Trump to issue executive orders on immigration, energy, government hiring policies soon</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/leaks-around-trumps-day-one-executive-orders-have-not-mentioned-tariffs-at-all-20250119/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Leaks around Trump's 'day one' executive orders have not mentioned tariffs at all</a></li></ul><p>No mention of tariffs in the comments (see that second link). </p><p>Still plenty of ****coins being launched:</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Any rapid imposition of tariffs would be viewed in market as a negative for risk at this stage.</p><p>As an update to this earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-to-issue-executive-orders-on-immigration-energy-government-hiring-policies-soon-20250119/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Trump to issue executive orders on immigration, energy, government hiring policies soon</a></li></ul><p>in reports on these leaks there is no mention of tariffs.</p><p>To conclude 'no tariffs to be announced today', based on the leaks we have so far, might be reasonable. The caution is, of course, we all learnt from Trump's first administration that his admin's policymaking can be volatile and unpredictable. So instead of reaching a solid conclusion it might be best to reach a tentative one, with a probability attached. Based on the politics (I'm not an expert on politics) it would seem perhaps 75 - 80% certain of no tariffs to be imposed on day one. That gives some wiggle room. The next step is to not bet the farm on Trump politics. The next step is to ensure you have a stop loss in place. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report. Extract:</p><ul><li>Trump is readying a blitz of executive orders that he plans to issue just hours after he is sworn into office</li><li>orders, which would make major changes to immigration, energy and government hiring policies</li><li>Stephen Miller, Trump’s incoming White House deputy chief of staff for policy, briefed a small number of senior GOP leaders Sunday afternoon about the administration’s plans. They include declaring a national emergency on the U.S.-Mexico border, rescinding Biden administration directives on diversity, equity and inclusion and unwinding President Biden’s limits on drilling offshore and on federal land, Miller told the lawmakers, according to Capitol Hill Republicans briefed on the call. </li></ul><p>Bolding is mine.</p><p>Trump will be sworn in during the day (US time) on Monday, January 20, 2025.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online ... prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Note also that today, Monday, January 20, 2025, is a US market holiday. </p><p class="text-align-start vertical-align-baseline">Guide:</p><ul class="text-align-start vertical-align-baseline"><li class="vertical-align-baseline">EUR/USD 1.0280</li><li class="vertical-align-baseline">USD/JPY 156.27</li><li class="vertical-align-baseline">GBP/USD 1.2165</li><li class="vertical-align-baseline">USD/CHF 0.9140</li><li class="vertical-align-baseline">USD/CAD 1.4470</li><li class="vertical-align-baseline">AUD/USD 0.6195</li><li class="vertical-align-baseline">NZD/USD 0.5588</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>UPCOMING EVENTS:</p><ul><li>Monday: PBoC LPR,US Presidential Inauguration Day, BoC Business Outlook Survey, New Zealand Services PMI.</li><li>Tuesday: UK Employment report, German ZEW, Canada CPI, New Zealand Q4 CPI.</li><li>Thursday: Canada Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims.</li><li>Friday: Japan CPI, BoJ Policy Decision, Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs.</li></ul><p>Monday</p><p>The PBoC is expected to keep the LPR rates unchanged at 3.1% for the 1 year and 3.6% for the 5 year. Chinese officials pledged strong monetary and fiscal support in 2025, but we have yet to see that. Deflationary forces are still in place and real rates remain too high for the economy to recover.</p><p>Tuesday</p><p>The UK Employment report is expected to show 35K jobs added in the three months to November vs. 173K to October and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%. The Average Earnings including Bonus is expected to pick up to 5.6% vs. 5.2% prior, while the ex-Bonus measure is seen at 5.5% vs. 5.2% prior. </p><p>Wage growth remains too high and that’s something that’s been keeping the BoE more cautious but the central bank officials continue to see four rate cuts by the end of the year. The market sees an 82% probability of a 25 bps cut at the upcoming meeting and a total of 65 bps of easing by year end. </p><p>The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected at 1.8% vs. 1.9% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at -0.4% vs. 0.0% prior. The Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.4% vs. 2.7% prior, while the Median CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.4% vs. 2.6% prior. </p><p>As a reminder, the BoC cut interest rates by 50 bps at the last policy meeting but <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-canada-rate-decision-50-basis-point-rate-cut-20241211/">dropped the line</a> saying “if the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further", which suggests that we reached the peak in "dovishness" and the central bank will now switch to 25 bps cuts and will slow the pace of easing.</p><p>The market sees an 81% chance of a 25 bps cut at the upcoming meeting and a total of 58 bps of easing by year end. </p><p>The New Zealand Q4 CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.1% vs. 2.2% prior, while the Q/Q measure is seen at 0.4% vs. 0.6% prior. As a reminder, the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-cuts-cash-rate-by-50bp-as-expected-20241127/">RBNZ</a> cut interest rates by 50 bps as expected at the last meeting. The market is pricing a 61% chance of a 50 bps cut in February and a total of 103 bps of easing by year end.</p><p>Thursday</p><p>The US Jobless Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market. </p><p>Initial Claims remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims continue to hover around cycle highs although we’ve seen some easing recently. </p><p>This week Initial Claims are expected at 218K vs. 217K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1861K vs. 1859K prior.</p><p>Friday</p><p>The Japanese Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.0% vs. 2.7% prior. The data will be released before the BoJ decision, so the market might not react to it too much given that the focus will be on the central bank decision.</p><p>The BoJ is expected to hike interest rates by 25 bps. We had a quick turnaround in expectations in the last couple of weeks following some usual “leaks” and especially Governor Ueda’s comments which suggested that a rate hike was in serious consideration. The market responded by pricing in the rate hike and bidding the JPY into the decision which also raised the risk of a disappointment in case the BoJ were to keep rates steady. </p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Here is my base case.</p><p>Greenland:</p><p>This is a real pet project of Trump's. He's a real estate guy, it's the biggest island in the world and there are only 56,000 people there. Denmark is weak, there is already a US base on the island and there are probably a lot of natural resources waiting to be discovered. Plus, imperialism is kinda fun.</p><p>Panama canal:</p><p>Some friends in shipping have been complaining to him about the cost to use the canal and they don't like it. America did build the canal but American ships or those bringing goods to America don't get any special deal. Meanwhile, it's one of the greatest monopolies in world history and funds all of Panama's government, allowing the rest of the country to be a giant tax-free money laundering operation to fund things like the Trump Hotel in Panama, which was once the largest building in Latin America. Of course, that project was something of a disaster (I lived there) and it was later re-named and he probably holds a grudge.</p><p>Canada:</p><p>It was a lame joke that he's beating to death.</p><p>Now for the fun part.</p><p>(Warning: Do not take this seriously and certainly don't devise some kind of trading strategy based on it. This is for fun)</p><p>What if I'm wrong? What if there is some kind of strategy here?</p><p>The obvious answer is that it's a move to counter China. It would aim to create some kind of schism in the world that puts the Americas (or at least the Caribbean and east coast of the Americas) firmly in the US sphere.</p><p>Panama Canal</p><p>I did a deep dive on China shipping, and surprisingly, blocking the Panama Canal wouldn't be that big of a deal. Virtually all Chinese goods to Europe and Africa flow through the Suez Canal or round the Cape of Good Hope. For places like Brazil and Argentina, circling Cape Horn would be a moderate shipping headache but wouldn't materially change the economics or trade with China. T</p><p>Two spots do stand out as more-vulnerable -- Venezuela and Cuba. Both are precarious economies that would have significant trouble trading with China if forced to go the long way. Nearly half of Venezuela's oil goes to China and 50-70% of it goes through the canal.</p><p>If Trump really had imperial designs, then Cuba is surely the starting point and an invasion is not something you broadcast in advance but blocking its canal trade and tightening the screws on the economy even further would lay the groundwork for regime change.</p><p>Greenland:</p><p>There is some talk of tightening Arctic shipping lanes as some kind of grand-master strategy but it doesn't make sense to me. Ships could use the Russian route instead as it's not that much of a detour. Some people see some kind of global warming angle but to even get to Winnipeg, which is the coldest major city in the world, global temperatures would need to rise 5-7 degrees Celsius. In that kind of scenario, you'd have a total breakdown in pretty much everything.</p><p>I have to think it's more about exploiting resources that are there, or might be there. It would increase US landmass by 23% and the monetary costs would be low. I mean, even if you bribed every person in Greenland with $1 million, that would only be $56 billion. Compare that to the $200 billion already spent by the US in Ukraine or the $953 billion in the scam known as the Paycheck Protection Program.</p><p>Given that tech bros have also taken over the Republican Party, it might be seen as a test case for how effective they can run algos. If you can manipulate an election, why not try to manipulate a country into joining the United States?</p><p>If that works, then Greenland would just be the test case for...</p><p>Canada</p><p>Let's say that Elon and the tech bros tweak the algo and Greenlanders join the US willingly. There won't be bribes but the US money will flow in and Greenlanders would have the option of moving to the United States. </p><p>Not only would it achieve its goals for Greenland, but it would become an amazing propaganda tool, a minnow on the fish hook that would be used to catch the whale -- Canada.</p><p>There is the kernel of a plan there and Trump already hinted at the rest of it, saying he would use 'economic force' to convince Canada to join. The US can wreck virtually any global economy with the wave of a pen and Canada is highly vulnerable. The vast majority if the economy is directed to the US, with no alternatives. The oil pipelines from Canada almost all go in one direction, and even some critical Canadian pipelines for domestic use take a short-cut through the USA.</p><p>Now Canada is also the USA's biggest export market so it could deliver major pain to the US as well but if the US were to steadily undermine Canada's economy via trade and other under-handed methods, while leveraging social media, it would have a chance. Drive the loonie to sub-50 cents and offer to merge at par and provide free movement into a better-paying economy and that's a compelling offer.</p><p>To be honest, I think the major problem with it is the Republican side, because if you were to give Canada the proportionate House, Senate and electoral college votes, the US election results would be very different. But Canada is insanely rich in resource wealth and in some kind of robot-dominated, no immigration world, you could run an impressive closed economy.</p><p>Just please god don't let this clown anywhere near any kind of negotiation:</p> This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-stock-indice-close-higher-on-the-day-and-have-positive-returns-for-the-week-20250117/">US stock indice close higher on the day and have positive returns for the week</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-oil-rig-count-down-2-to-468-20250117/">Baker Hughes oil rig count down -2 to 468</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/european-indices-close-higher-record-closing-levels-for-some-of-the-indices-20250117/">European indices close higher. Record closing levels for some of the indices.</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/bitcoin-jumps-to-105000-20250117/">Bitcoin jumps to $105,000</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/atlanta-fed-gdpnow-growth-estimate-for-q4-unchanged-at-30-20250117/">Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 unchanged at 3.0%</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-canada-releases-what-they-learned-from-the-actions-of-the-pandemic-20250117/">Bank of Canada releases what they learned from the actions of the pandemic</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-it-is-ultimately-goes-up-to-me-so-you-are-going-to-see-what-im-going-to-do-20250117/">Trump: It is ultimately goes up to me so you are going to see what I'm going to do"</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-plans-on-a-flood-of-immigration-executive-orders-on-day-1-20250117/">Trump: Plans on a flood of immigration executive orders on Day 1</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-supreme-court-rules-ag-tiktok-challenge-to-law-that-would-force-sale-or-ban-app-in-us-20250117/">US Supreme Court rules ag TikTok challenge to law that would force sale or ban app in US</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/more-from-chinas-xi-there-are-differnces-the-key-is-finding-ways-to-resolve-issues-20250117/">More from China's Xi: There are differnces. The key is finding ways to resolve issues</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-the-call-with-xi-was-a-very-good-one-for-both-china-and-usa-20250117/">Trump: The call with Xi was a very good one for both China and USA</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-industrial-production-for-december-09-versus-03-expected-20250117/">US industrial production for December 0.9% versus 0.3% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/geopolitic-chinas-xi-had-a-phone-call-with-pres-elect-trump-20250117/">Geopolitic: China's Xi had a phone call with Pres. Elect Trump</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-securities-transactions-for-november-c1785-billion-versus-c-265-billion-last-20250117/">Canada securities transactions for November C$17.85 billion versus C$-2.65 billion last</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-housing-start-1499m-versus-1320m-estimate-20250117/">US December housing start 1.499M versus 1.320M estimate</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/ecbs-elderson-if-we-lower-the-interest-rate-too-fast-service-inflation-could-rise-20250117/">ECBs Elderson: If we lower the interest rate too fast, service inflation could rise</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-na-session-with-a-technical-look-at-the-eurusd-usdjpy-and-gbpusd-20250117/">Kickstart the NA session with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-european-fx-news-wrap-dollar-remains-steady-uk-retail-sales-disappoint-20250117/">ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar remains steady, UK retail sales disappoint</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-hammack-we-can-be-very-patient-in-considering-future-rate-cuts-20250117/">Fed's Hammack: We can be very patient in considering future rate cuts</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Crude oil: $-0.47 at $77.38</li><li>Gold $-11.90 or -0.44% at $2701.83</li><li>Silver is $0.47 or -1.54% at $30.32</li><li>Bitcoin up $4864 or 4.87% at $104,831</li></ul><p>The USD is ending the day higher versus all the major currency pairs. </p><p>The largest move is a 0.74% gain versus the JPY. The dollar rose by 0.61% versus the CAD and 0.58% versus the GBP. The greenback was and 0.28% versus the EUR in trading today.</p><p>The US economic data was supportive with housing starts and building permits both higher than expectations (although multifamily units helped to increase the numbers). </p><p>The industrial production and capacity utilization data was also better than expected with industrial production rising by 0.9% versus 0.3% expectations) and capacity utilization rising to 77.6% from 77% last month.</p><p>US yields did move higher and are closing near the highs for the day:</p><ul><li>2 year yield 4.287%, +4.7 basis points. The high yield this week reached 4.424%</li><li>five year 4.431%, +3.3 basis points. The high yield this week reached 4.624%</li><li>10 year 4.67%, +2.1 basis points. The high yield this week reached 4.809% </li><li>30 year 4.856%, +1.2 basis points. The high yield this week reached 5.005%.</li></ul><p>However, the gain in US yields did not hurt the stock performance today. All the major indices close higher for the day and also for the week (it was the first up week for the major indices in 2025). </p><p>For the day:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average rose 334.70 points or 0.78% at 43487.83</li><li>S&amp;P index rose 59.32 points or 1.00% at 5996.66</li><li>NASDAQ index rose 291.91 points or 1.51% at 19630.20</li><li>Russell 2000 rose 9.08 points or 0.40% at 2275.88</li></ul><p>For the trading week:</p><ul class="text-align-start vertical-align-baseline"><li>Dow industrial average rose 3.69%.</li><li>S&amp;P index rose 2.91%</li><li>NASDAQ index rose 2.45%</li></ul><p>On Monday the bond and stock markets will be close in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. The presidential inauguration will also take place on that day for Donald Trump. Although it will be a day of celebration and festivities, there is likely to be number of preplanned Executive Orders that may go through including border control. </p><p>Also of interest would be any news on TikTok. Today the Supreme Court upheld the decision by Congress which calls for the showing down on Sunday January 19th. The Biden administration has already said that they would kick the can down the road to the Trump administration. Pres. Trump has said that he wants to find a solution. </p><p>Nevertheless, will the Chinese shut down the site in the US? Will Pres.Trump have any definitive solutions or "stays of execution" to avoid a total mental breakdown of Tiktokers? </p><p>Adam is back next week. Have a fun and safe weekend. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The major US stock indices are closing higher for the day and for the week. The week gain, is the first for the new trading year for the broader indices. </p><p>For the day:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average rose 334.70 points or 0.78% at 43487.83</li><li>S&amp;P index rose 59.32 points or 1.00% at 5996.66</li><li>NASDAQ index rose 291.91 points or 1.51% at 19630.20</li><li>Russell 2000 rose 9.08 points or 0.40% at 2275.88</li></ul><p>For the trading week:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average rose 3.69%.</li><li>S&amp;P index rose 2.91%</li><li>NASDAQ index rose 2.45%</li></ul><p>For the new trading year, the major indices are also positive: </p><ul><li>Dow industrial average up 2.22%</li><li>S&amp;P index up 1.96% </li><li>NASDAQ index up 1.65% </li></ul><p>Next week, the earnings calendar starts to heat up:</p><p>Tuesday: </p><ul><li>Charles Schwab</li><li>3M</li><li>DR Horton</li><li>Netflix</li><li>United Airlines</li><li>Seagate</li></ul><p>Wednesday</p><ul><li>P&amp;G</li><li>Abbott</li><li>Johnson &amp; Johnson</li><li>Halliburton</li><li>Alcoa</li><li>Discover</li></ul><p>Thursday </p><ul><li>American Airlines</li><li>Freeport-McMoran</li><li>Texas Instruments</li><li>intuitive surgical</li><li>CSX </li></ul><p>Friday </p><ul><li>Verizon</li><li>American Express</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Total rig count down -4 to 580</li><li>Oil rig count -2 to 478</li><li>Gas rig count -2 to 98</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The major European indices closed solidly higher not only for the day but also the week. The gains have led to record closes for the German DAX, the UK's FTSE 100 and Italy's FTSE MIB.</p><p>The final numbers for the day show: </p><ul><li>German DAX, +1.20%. For the week the index rose 3.41%. A new record high of 20,924.50 was reached. The index closed at 20,903.40.</li><li>France's CAC rose +0.98%. For the week, the index rose 3.75%. </li><li>UK's FTSE 100 rose 1.35% on the day and 3.11% for the week. The high price this week reached 8533.43 a new all-time high. The index closed at 8505.23. </li><li>Spain's Ibex rose 0.64% for the day and 1.67% for the week. </li><li>Italy's FTSE MIB rose 1.25% and 3.36% for the week. The index closed at its highest level since January 2008 </li></ul><p>As London traders head for the exits, the US indices are higher. </p><ul><li>Dow industrial average is up 441 points or 1.03% at 43599.55. At session highs the index was up 472.89 points.</li><li>S&amp;P index is up 70.17 points or 1.18% at 6007.06. At session highs, the index is up 74.61 points</li><li>NASDAQ index is up 310.89 points or 1.61% at 19649.50. That session highs it price was up 341.33 points</li></ul><p>Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher now after trading lower earlier in the day:</p><ul><li> 2 year yield 4.274% up 3.6 basis points</li><li>5year yield 4.418%, +2.1 basis points.</li><li>10 year yield 4.614%, +0.9 basis points</li><li>30 year yield 4.843%, -0.2 basis points</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The Congressional Budget Office is out with their forecast for the US deficit and also the benchmark for the new presidents term.</p><ul><li>Congressional Budget Office forecasts FY 2025 U.S. budget deficit at $1.865 trillion vs $1.832 trillion FY 2024 deficit.</li><li>CBO forecasts FY 2025 deficit at 6.2% of GDP vs 6.4% in FY 2024, with 5.8% average for FY 2026-2035.</li><li>CBO forecasts U.S. public debt at 99.9% of GDP in 2025, rising to 118.5% in FY 2035 based on current laws.</li><li>CBO FY 2025 deficit forecast is $73 billion lower than in June estimate; FY 2026 deficit forecast at $1.713 trillion vs $1.851 trillion in June.</li><li>CBO forecasts cumulative FY 2026-2035 deficit at $21.758 trillion vs June deficit forecast of $22.08 trillion for FY 2025-2034.</li><li>CBO forecasts U.S. real GDP growth at 1.9% in 2025 vs June forecast of 2.0%, with 1.9% average for 2024-2034.</li><li>CBO forecasts 10-year U.S. Treasury yields at 4.1% in 2025, with a 3.9% average for 2024-2034. </li></ul><p>Can the US grow greater than 1.9%? Trump and the GOP are looking for higher growth to "growth its way" out of the deficit. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Pres. elect Trump in an interview on CNN said:</p><ul><li> it is ultimately up to me</li></ul><p>He did not specify what he wants to do, but he has said/implied he wants TikTok to be Amerian owned and operated within the United States.. </p><p>Trump benefited from TikTok in the election. He does not want to alienate the TikTok audience, but from China's side, they have a valuable property to horse-trade with including lower tariffs (?)</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>In addition to TikTok, Pres. Trump is saying that he is planning a flood of immigration executive orders on day one.</p><p>However, Politico reports, that Trump is unlikely to fulfill key Day One promises, including:</p><ul><li>Large-scale deportation efforts.</li><li>Ending birthright citizenship quickly.</li><li>Challenges include legal, logistical hurdles, and the need for congressional approval.</li></ul><p>Instead, his focus as he takes office is likely to:</p><ul><li>Signal a strict stance on illegal border crossings.</li><li>Warn unauthorized immigrants, especially those with criminal records, of heightened deportation risks.</li></ul><p>In addition, he plans to implement:</p><ul><li>Executive orders and actions to reinstate policies from his first term.</li><li>Reversal of Biden-era immigration policies.</li><li>Greater enforcement freedom for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).</li></ul><p>Nothing new but implementation will likely focus on the criminals. They will likely be sent back ASAP. The border will also be closed/policed. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.