<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-stocks-and-a-solid-week-with-strong-gains-nasdaq-leads-the-charge-20240426/">US stocks end a solid week with strong gains. NASDAQ leads the charge.</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/eurjpy-gets-close-to-2008-high-at-16996-20240426/">EURJPY gets close to 2008 high at 169.96. Break above and trading at 32-year-high</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/crude-oil-settles-at-8385-20240426/">Crude oil settles at $83.85</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/key-event-and-releases-for-the-trading-week-starting-april-29-20240426/">Key event and releases for the trading week starting April 29</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-oil-rigs-down-to-506-vs-511-last-week-20240426/">Baker Hughes oil rigs down to 506 vs 511 last week</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/european-indices-close-higher-for-the-dayweek-uk-ftse-100-closes-at-a-record-level-20240426/">European indices close higher for the day/week. UK FTSE 100 closes at a record level.</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/citigroup-now-sees-100-basis-points-of-cuts-this-year-from-july-20240426/">Citigroup now sees 100 basis points of cuts this year from July</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/atlanta-fed-gdpnow-estimate-for-q2-growth-39-20240426/">Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q2 growth 3.9%</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/university-of-michigan-april-consumer-sentiment-final-772-versus-779-estimate-20240426/">University of Michigan April consumer sentiment (final) 77.2 versus 77.9 estimate</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/wh-brainard-work-to-bring-costs-down-are-ongoing-20240426/">WH Brainard: Work to bring costs down are ongoing</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-fx-trading-day-for-april-26-w-a-technical-look-at-eurusd-usdjpy-and-gbpusd-20240426/">Kickstart the FX trading day for April 26 w/ a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-march-pce-core-inflation-28-yoy-versus-27-expected-20240426/">US March PCE core inflation 2.8% YoY versus 2.7% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-aud-is-the-strongest-and-the-jpy-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20240426/">The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-european-fx-news-wrap-japanese-yen-volatility-ramps-up-after-ueda-presser-20240426/">ForexLive European FX news wrap: Japanese yen volatility ramps up after Ueda presser</a></li></ul><p>The JPY pairs all rose sharply (JPY lower) as JPY selling continued after the BOJ rate decision. </p><p>The comments from BOJ Ueda did not strike any fear in traders hearts, after saying that the JPYs fall could lead to higher inflation, but expressed no concerns about its fall. </p><p>After, an initial dip soon after the announcement to near 155.00, buyers quickly reentered. The USDJPY is extending to a new session high at 158.292 going into the last minutes of trading today. The high price from 1990 at 160.40 is within reach. </p><p>The JPY moved the most vs the AUD with a fall of -1.92%. It fell -1.69% versus a US dollar and -1.59% versus the Canadian dollar.</p><p>Looking at the JPY crosses:</p><ul><li>The AUDJPY traded to it's highest level since April 2013 </li><li>The EURJPY traded at its highest level since July 2008</li><li>The GBPJPY surpassed its 2015 high, and traded to the highest level since 2008.</li><li>The NZDJPY traded briefly above its 2014 high price and to the highest level since July 2007</li><li>The CHFJPY is trading to its highest level at least going back to 1973.</li><li>The CADJPY traded to its highest level since December 2007.</li></ul><p>Looking at the strongest to weakest of the major currencies, the AUD and the USD were the strongest today.</p><p>Today in the US session, core PCE for the month March was released and came in better than expectations. After the US GDP yesterday showed core PCE for the first quarter higher than expectations, the fear was for a rise of 0.4 – 0.5%. The actual increase for the month came in 0.3%. The year-on-year stayed unchanged at 2.8% which was 0.1% higher than the 2.7% estimate.</p><p>Coming off stronger earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet after the close on Thursday, stocks got another boost. The gains were led by the NASDAQ index which rose over 2% on the day and by 4.23% for the trading week. That was the best week since October 2023. The S&amp;P index rose 1.02% today, and its week gain of 2.67% is good enough for its best performance since October as well.</p><p>In the US debt market, yields are ending the day lower but off their lowest levels. Yields are still higher for the trading week:</p><ul><li>2-year yield 4.995%, -0.3 basis points</li><li>5-year yield 4.6%, -2.8 basis points</li><li>10-year yield 4.665%, -4.1 basis points</li><li>30-year yield 4.776%, -4.3 basis points</li></ul><p>For the trading week:</p><ul><li>2-year yield up 1.0 basis points</li><li>5-year yield up 1.7 basis points</li><li>10 year yield up 4.2 basis points</li><li>30-year yield up 6.4 basis points</li></ul><p>in other markets this week:</p><ul><li>Crude oil rose $1.42 or 1.73%.</li><li>Gold fell $-54.06 or -2.26%</li><li>Silver fell $-1.48 or -5.12%</li><li>Bitcoin fell $-1038 or -1.60%</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The US major stock indices surged higher today led by the NASDAQ index which rose over 2.0%. </p><p>The catalyst was lower than anticipated core PCE data released by the Federal Reserve. That inflation measure is the favor measure of inflation by the Fed. Given the GDP day yesterday with the quarterly core PCE data higher than expectations, the fear was a surprise to the upside today. The MoM came in as expected 0.3%. There was rumblings of a +0.4 – +0.5% level after the data yesterday.</p><p>The final numbers today are showing:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average average of 153.84 points or +0.40% at 38239.67.</li><li>S&amp;P index up 51.54 points or 1.02% at 5099.95.</li><li>NASDAQ index up 316.14 points or 2.03% at 15927.90.</li></ul><p>The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 20.8 points or 1.05% at 2001.99.</p><p>For the trading week, the S&amp;P and NASDAQ indices had their best week since October 30, 2023.</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial average rose 0.67%</li><li>S&amp;P index rose 2.67%</li><li>NASDAQ index rose 4.23%</li><li>Russell 2000 rose 2.79%.</li></ul><p>Gains today were led by:</p><ul><li>Snap, +27.46% after beating earnings</li><li>Alphabet, +10.22% after its earnings</li><li>Super Micro Computers +8.9%. They will announce earnings next week.</li><li>Nvidia, +6.18%. Nvidia won't announce until later in May.</li><li>Broadcom, was 3.84%</li><li>Amazon, +3.43% (Amazon will announce next week)</li></ul><p>The big losers today included:</p><ul><li>Intel, -9.2% after disappointing earnings. </li><li>Exxon Mobil -2.60%. It too missed on earnings</li><li>Paramount -2.60%</li><li>Ford Motor -2.07%</li><li>American Airlines -1.77%</li></ul><p>Next week, the following companies will announce their earnings (* after the close):</p><p>Monday, April 29</p><ul><li>Domino's Pizza</li><li>Phillips</li><li>Paramount*</li><li>Logitech*</li></ul><p>Tuesday, April 30</p><ul><li>PayPal</li><li>Lily</li><li>3M</li><li>McDonald's</li><li>Coca-Cola</li><li>Amazon *</li><li>AMD*</li><li>Super Micro Computers*</li><li>Starbucks*</li><li>Pinterest</li></ul><p>Wednesday, May 1</p><ul><li>Pfizer</li><li>CVS</li><li>MasterCard</li><li>Marriott</li><li>Qualcomm *</li><li>Carvana *</li></ul><p>Thursday, May 2</p><ul><li>Peloton</li><li>Moderna</li><li>Apple *</li><li>Coinbas *</li><li>Block *</li><li>DraftKings *</li><li>Fortinet *</li></ul><p>Friday, May 3</p><ul><li>Hersey</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The price of the WTI crude oil settled on Friday at $83.85. The price settled up $0.28 or 0.34%.</p><p>The high-price today reached $84.46. The low price was at $83.35.</p><p>For the trading week, the price is trading higher by $1.54 or 1.87%.</p><ul class="text-align-start"><li>The Baker Hughes weekly rig count showed a decrease in total rigs to 613 from 619, with oil rigs down by five to 506, and natural gas rigs moved down by one to 105.</li><li>Concerns about a "Rafah operation," remains a potential geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, the tensions between Iran and Isreal have abated. </li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Next week, the Federal Reserve rate decision will take place on Wednesday, May 1 at 2 PM ET followed by the press conference scheduled for 2:30 PM ET. That rate decision will highlight the economic releases and events for the trading week starting April 29.</p><p>Also on the economic calendar:</p><p>Monday, April 29</p><ul><li>German CPI. Estimate 0.6%</li></ul><p>Tuesday, April 30</p><ul><li>China PMI. Expectations 50.3 versus 50.8 last month</li><li>Canada GDP MoM (8:30 AM ET). Estimate 0.3% versus 0.6% last month.</li><li>US employment cost index for the first quarter (10 AM ET). 1.0% versus 0.9% last quarter</li><li>US consumer confidence (10 AM ET). Estimate 104.0 versus 104.7 last month</li></ul><p>Wednesday, May 1</p><ul><li>New Zealand employment statistics (6:45 PM ET, Tuesday). Employment change 0.3% versus 0.4% last quarter. Unemployment rate 4.3% versus 4.0 present</li><li>US ADP nonfarm employment change (8:15 AM ET). Estimate 180K versus 184K last month</li><li>US ISM manufacturing (10 AM ET). Estimate 50.0 versus 50.3 last month</li><li>US JOLTs job openings (10 AM ET). Estimate 8.68 million versus 8.76 million last month</li><li>Federal Reserve interest rate decision (2 PM ET). No change expected</li><li>Federal Reserve press conference (2:30 PM ET)</li></ul><p>Thursday, May 2</p><ul><li>Swiss CPI MoM (2:30 AM ET). Estimate 0.2% versus 0.0% last month.</li><li>US initial jobless claims (8:30 AM ET). Estimate 210K versus 207K last week.</li><li>Bank of Canada's Macklem speaks (8:45 AM ET)</li></ul><p>Friday, May 3</p><ul><li>US jobs statistics (8:30 AM ET). Non-farm payroll estimate 250K versus 303K last month. Unemployment rate 3.8% versus 3.8% last month. Average hourly earnings of 0.3% versus 0.3% last month.</li><li>US ISM services PMI (10 AM ET). Estimate 52.0 versus 51.4 last month.</li></ul><p>In addition to the key economic releases,the earnings calendar next week will once again be full of a number of key large-cap stocks. Below is a sampling of the major releases for each trading day (* is after the close):</p><p>Monday, April 29</p><ul><li>Domino's Pizza</li><li>Phillips</li><li>Paramount*</li><li>Logitech*</li></ul><p>Tuesday, April 30</p><ul><li>PayPal</li><li>Lily</li><li>3M</li><li>McDonald's</li><li>Coca-Cola</li><li>Amazon *</li><li>AMD*</li><li>Super Micro Computers*</li><li>Starbucks*</li><li>Pinterest</li></ul><p>Wednesday, May 1</p><ul><li>Pfizer</li><li>CVS</li><li>MasterCard</li><li>Marriott</li><li>Qualcomm *</li><li>Carvana *</li></ul><p>Thursday, May 2</p><ul><li>Peloton</li><li>Moderna</li><li>Apple *</li><li>Coinbas *</li><li>Block *</li><li>DraftKings *</li><li>Fortinet *</li></ul><p>Friday, May 3</p><ul><li>Hersey</li></ul><p>* After the close. The</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>An earthquake is being reported in Taiwan's capital Taipei. </p><p>Details are limited at the moment.</p><p>UPDATE:</p><ul><li>The magnitude is reported at 5.6 and 6.1</li><li>There are no reports of damage</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The Baker Hughes rig count for the current week shows:</p><ul><li>Oil rigs: 506 vs 511 </li><li>Natural gas rigs:105 vs 106.</li><li>Total rigs: 613 vs 619 last week</li></ul><p>Crude oil is trading up $0.22 at $83.80. </p><p>For the trade week, price of crude oil is up $1.72 or 2.09%.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Major European indices closed today with gains led by the Spanish Ibex which rose 1.56% and the German DAX which rose 1.36%. The major European indices were also higher for the trading week. </p><p>A review of the gains today showed:</p><ul><li>German DAX, +243.73 points or 1.36% at 18161.02.</li><li>France CAC +71.59 points or 0.89% at 8088.25.</li><li>UK FTSE 100 rose 60.99 points or 0.75% at 8139.84. The index closed at record levels this week.</li><li>Spain's Ibex rose 170.90 points or 1.56% at 11154.61 the index closed at its highest level August 2015</li><li>Italy's FTSE MIB rose 310.02 points or 0.91% at 34249.76.</li></ul><p>For the trading week:</p><ul><li>German DAX rose 2.39%. That's the largest week gain since January 22 week.</li><li>France CAC rose 0.82%.</li><li>UK FTSE 100 hundred rose 3.09%. Its largest week gain since September 2023.</li><li>Spain's Ibex rose 3.96%. Its largest week gain since November 2023</li><li>Italy's FTSE MIB rose 0.97%.</li></ul><p>European 10 year yields fell today, but were mostly higher for the week. </p><ul><li>Germany, 2.573%, -6.0 basis points. For the trading week up 4.5 basis points</li><li>France 3.064%, -6.7 basis points. For the week up 4.5 basis points</li><li>UK 4.333%, -2.4 basis points. For the week up 10.2 basis points</li><li>Spain 3.367%, -7.6 basis points. For the week up 4.9 basis points.</li><li>Italy 3.89%, -9.4 basis points. For the week the yield fell -1.8 basis points bucking the trend.</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Citigroup now sees 100 basis points of cuts this year from July. That is much more than the 45 or so basis points forecast by the market. The Fed's last dot plot had 3 cuts, but subsequently, Fed officials came more in the 1 to 2 cut range. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Preliminary 77.9</li><li>Prior 79.4</li><li>Consumer sentiment 77.2 versus 77.9 estimate</li><li>Current conditions 79.0 versus 79.3 preliminary. Prior month 82.5</li><li>Expectations 76.0 versus 77.0 preliminary. Prior month 77.4</li><li>1-year inflation expectation 3.2% versus 3.1% preliminary. Last month 2.9%. This is the highest level of the year</li><li>5-year inflation expectation 3.0% versus 3.0% preliminary. Last month 2.8%.</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Microsoft and Alphabet are leading stocks higher in early US trading. The NASDAQ index is the biggest gainer. The Dow Industrial Average is trading near unchanged.</p><p>A snapshot of the markets shows:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average average up 35 points or 0.10% at 38124.65</li><li>S&amp;P index of 31.66 points or 0.64% at 5080.</li><li>NASDAQ index up 205 points or 1.31% at 15816.</li></ul><p>The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading up 4.08 points or 0.21% at 1965.28.</p><p>Big gainers include:</p><ul><li>Google up 10.02%</li><li>Microsoft up 2.76%</li><li>Amazon up 1.79%</li><li>Super Micro Computers up 2.34%</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Former Fed Gov. Lael Brainard is speaking on the inflation and says:</p><ul><li>Work to bring costs down our ongoing</li><li>Working to lower healthcare, drug, housing costs.</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The major US stock indices are trading higher in premarket trading, but off the highest levels.</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average averages is virtually unchanged with a small gain of 12 points</li><li>S&amp;P index is implying gain of 33 points or 0.66%</li><li>NASDAQ futures are implying a gain of 146 points or 0.83%</li></ul><p>For the trading week, the major indices are going into today's trade with gains. The S&amp;P is looking to snap a three week decline while the NASDAQ index is looking to snap a four week decline:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average is up 0.26%</li><li>S&amp;P index is up 1.63%</li><li>NASDAQ index is up 2.16%</li></ul><p>Shares of Microsoft after their earnings are trading at $14.36 or 3.6%. Alphabet shares are up $18 or 11.47%. They too announced earnings after the close yesterday. Intel shares are sharply lower after disappointing earnings (down -9.26%).</p><p>Nvidia shares are up $13.21 or 1.60%. Amazon shares are up $4.48 or 2.58%. Meta Platforms shares are down $-1.78 or -0.40%. Yesterday Meta Platforms shares fell $52.12 or -10.56% after announcing higher expenses and lower expectations for Q2 revenues.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Monday</p><p>The PBoC left the LPR rates unchanged as expected:</p><ul><li>1-year LPR 3.45%.</li><li>5-year LPR 3.95%.</li></ul><p>The SNB raised the minimum Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) from 2.5% to 4.0% with the change going into effect from 1 July 2024:</p><p>"Liabilities arising from cancellable customer deposits (excluding tied pension provision) will in future be included in full in the calculation of the minimum reserve requirement, as is the case with the other relevant liabilities. This revokes the previous exception whereby only 20% of these liabilities counted towards the calculation."</p><p>That is a change to the National Bank Ordinance. On the move, the SNB says that "the adjustments will ensure that implementation of monetary policy remains effective and efficient" and that it "will not affect the current monetary policy stance".</p><p>The Canadian March PPI came in line with expectations:</p><ul><li>PPI M/M 0.8% vs. 0.8% expected and 1.1 prior (revised from 0.7%).</li><li>PPI Y/Y -0.5% vs. -1.4% prior (revised from -1.7%).</li><li>Raw materials price index Y/Y -0.5% vs. -4.7% prior.</li><li>Raw materials price index M/M 4.7% vs. 2.1% prior.</li></ul><p>Tuesday</p><p>The Australian April PMIs showed Manufacturing almost jumping back into expansion while the Services PMI ticked slightly lower:</p><ul><li>Manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs. 47.3 prior.</li><li>Services PMI 54.2 vs. 54.4 prior. </li></ul><p>The Japanese April PMIs showed Manufacturing PMI almost jumping back into expansion while the Services PMI increased further into expansion:</p><ul><li>Manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs. 48.0 expected and 48.2 prior.</li><li>Services PMI 54.6 vs. 54.1 prior.</li></ul><p>BoJ Governor Ueda didn’t add anything new on the monetary policy front as the central bank remains data dependent with particular focus on the inflation trend and wage growth:</p><ul><li>Don't have any preset idea on timing, pace of future rate hike.</li><li>If trend inflation accelerates in line with our forecast, we will adjust degree of monetary support through interest rate hike.</li><li>If our price forecast changes, that will also be a reason to change policy.</li><li>Future monetary policy guidance will depend on economy, price, market development at the time.</li><li>Didn't say anything new on BoJ policy last week in Washington.</li><li>Trend inflation is still somewhat below 2%, so need to maintain accommodative monetary conditions for the time being.</li><li>If geopolitical risks, weak domestic demand cause disruptions in markets, BoJ will respond through flexible, nimble liquidity provisions.</li><li>Annual wage negotiations have been, and always will be, among important economic variables we look at in setting policy.</li><li>We decide on policy looking not just at wage talks, but various other economic variables.</li><li>We decided to change policy in March because strong wage talk outcome came on top of fairly solid readings in other sectors of economy.</li><li>Whether we will set policy with same emphasis on wage talk outcome will depend on conditions at the time.</li><li>It’s hard to say beforehand how long the BoJ should wait in gathering enough data to change policy.</li><li>We would like to leave some scope for adjustment by not pre-committing to a certain policy too much.</li><li>Our basic stance is that we will look at moves in trend inflation to achieve our price goal, and take a data-dependent approach in setting policy.</li></ul><p>The Eurozone April PMIs showed Manufacturing PMI slipping further into contraction while the Services PMI continues to tick higher:</p><ul><li>Manufacturing PMI 45.6 vs. 46.6 expected and 46.1 prior.</li><li>Services PMI 52.9 vs. 51.8 expected and 51.5 prior.</li></ul><p>The UK April PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling back into contraction while the Services PMI continue to expand:</p><ul><li>Manufacturing PMI 48.7 vs. 50.4 expected and 50.3 prior.</li><li>Services PMI 54.9 vs. 53.0 expected and 53.1 prior.</li></ul><p>BoE’s Haskel (hawk – voter) warned that inflation is unlikely to reach sustainably the target unless there’s a weakening in the labour market:</p><ul><li>High inflation to remain unless labour market weakens.</li><li>UK labour market is extremely tight.</li><li>Labour market tightness has been easing rather slowly.</li></ul><p>BoE’s Pill (neutral – voter) didn’t add anything new on the monetary policy front although he did say that a rate cut is “still some way off”:</p><ul><li>Seeing signs of a downward shift in inflation persistency.</li><li>Policy outlook has not changed substantially since March.</li><li>There has been little news in recent months on inflation persistence.</li><li>Now seeing signs of a downward shift in the persistent component of inflation dynamic.</li><li>A cut in the bank rate would not entirely undo the restrictive policy stance.</li><li>Will need to maintain a degree of restrictiveness in policy stance to squeeze out inflation persistency.</li><li>Absence of news and passage of time have brought a bank rate cut somewhat closer.</li><li>The timing for a rate cut is still some way off.</li><li>No reason for BoE to move rates in lockstep with either Fed or ECB.</li></ul><p>The US April PMIs missed expectations across the board:</p><ul><li>Manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs. 52.0 expected and 51.9 prior.</li><li>Services PMI 50.9 vs. 52.0 expected and 51.7 prior.</li></ul><p>Highlights:</p><ul><li>April saw an overall reduction in new orders for the first time in six months.</li><li>Companies responded by scaling back employment for the first time in almost four years.</li><li>Business confidence fell to the lowest since last November.</li><li>Rates of inflation generally eased at the start of the second quarter, with both input costs and output prices rising less quickly at the composite level.</li><li>However, manufacturing input cost inflation hit a one-year high.</li><li>Some service providers suggested that elevated interest rates and high prices had restricted demand during the month.</li></ul><p>Wednesday</p><p>The Australian Q1 CPI beat expectations across the board:</p><ul><li>CPI Y/Y 3.6 vs. 3.4% expected and 4.1% prior.</li><li>CPI Q/Q 1.0% vs. 0.8% expected and 0.6% prior.</li><li>Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y 4.0% vs. 3.8% expected and 4.2% prior.</li><li>Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q 1.0% vs. 0.8% expected and 0.8% prior.</li><li>Weighted Mean CPI Y/Y 4.4% vs. 4.1% expected and 4.4% prior.</li><li>Weighted Mean CPI Q/Q 1.1% vs. 0.9% expected and 0.9% prior.</li></ul><p>ECB’s Nagel (hawk – voter) warned that a rate cut in June does not mean that more rate cuts will follow suit:</p><ul><li>June rate cut not necessarily followed up by a series of rate cuts.</li><li>Services inflation remains high, driven by continued strong wage growth.</li><li>Not fully convinced that inflation will actually return to target in a timely, sustained manner.</li><li>Given the uncertainty, we cannot pre-commit to a particular rate path.</li></ul><p>The German April IFO Business Climate Index beat expectations:</p><ul><li>IFO 89.4 vs. 88.8 expected and 87.9 prior (revised from 87.8). </li><li>Current conditions 88.9 vs. 88.7 expected and 88.1 prior.</li><li>Expectations 89.9 vs. 88.7 expected and 87.7 prior (revised from 87.5).</li></ul><p>The Canadian February Retail Sales missed expectations across the board:</p><ul><li>Retail sales M/M -0.1% vs. 0.1% expected and -0.3 prior.</li><li>Retail sales Y/Y 1.2% vs. 0.2% prior (revised from 0.9%).</li><li>Ex autos M/M -0.3% vs. 0.0% expected and 0.4% prior (revised from 0.5%).</li><li>Ex auto and gas M/M 0.0% vs. 0.4% prior</li><li>Sales down in 5 of 9 subsectors led by fuel stations.</li><li>Advance March retail sales 0.0%.</li></ul><p>The US March Durable Goods Orders beat expectations:</p><ul><li>Durable goods orders M/M 2.6% vs. 2.5% expected and 0.7% prior (revised from 1.3%).</li><li>Nondefense capital goods orders ex air M/M 0.2% vs. 0.2% expected and 0.4% prior (revised from 0.7%).</li><li>Ex transportation M/M 0.2% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.1% prior (revised from 0.3%). </li><li>Ex-defense M/M 2.3% vs. 1.5% prior (revised from 2.1%).</li></ul><p>The BoC released the Minutes of its April Monetary Policy Meeting:</p><ul><li>Agreed that any monetary policy easing would probably be gradual.</li><li>There were different views on how much more assurance was needed to be confident that inflation was on a sustainable path back to target.</li><li>Some members felt there was a risk of keeping policy more restrictive than needed.</li><li>Governing Council was split over when to cut rates.</li><li>Felt rapid population increase and coming decline in non-permanent residents complicated outlook for activity and inflation.</li><li>Was more confident that inflation would continue to ease even as growth picked up.</li><li>Still more concerned about upside risks to inflation but viewed both upside and downside as less acute.</li></ul><p>Thursday</p><p>The US Jobless Claims beat expectations:</p><ul><li>Initial Claims 207K vs. 215K expected and 212K prior.</li><li>Continuing Claims 1781K vs. 1814K expected and 1796K prior (revised from 1812K).</li></ul><p>The US Advance Q1 GDP missed expectations with a surprisingly hot Core PCE print:</p><ul><li>Advance Q1 GDP 1.6% vs. 2.4% expected and 3.4% prior.</li><li>Weakest since Q1 2023.</li></ul><p>Details:</p><ul><li>Consumer spending 2.5% vs. 3.3% prior.</li><li>Consumer spending on durables -2.1% vs. 3.2% prior.</li><li>GDP final sales 2.0% vs. 3.9% prior.</li><li>GDP deflator 3.1% vs. 3.0% expected and 1.7% prior).</li><li>Core PCE 3.7% vs. 3.4% expected and 2.0% prior).</li><li>Business investment 3.2% vs. 0.7% prior.</li></ul><p>Percentage point changes:</p><ul><li>Net trade pp -0.86 vs. 0.32 pp prior.</li><li>Inventories -0.37 pp vs. -0.47 pp prior.</li><li>Govt 0.21pp vs. 0.79 pp prior.</li></ul><p>ECB’s Panetta (dove – voter) didnt’ say anything new as he just prefers to gradually cut rates to counter weak demand:</p><ul><li>We must weigh the risk of monetary policy becoming too tight.</li><li>Timely, small rate cuts would counter weak demand, and would be paused at no cost.</li><li>Hesitations in adjusting rates would hurt investment productivity.</li><li>Rate cuts could create a credibility issue.</li></ul><p>Friday</p><p>The Tokyo April CPI missed expectations across the board by a big margin, although it was attributed to a one-off factor as high school tuition was eliminated in Tokyo and took effect in April:</p><ul><li>CPI Y/Y 1.8% vs. 2.6% expected and 2.6% prior. </li><li>Core CPI Y/Y 1.6% vs. 2.2% expected and 2.4% prior.</li><li>Core-Core CPI Y/Y 1.4% vs. 2.7% expected and 2.9% prior. </li></ul><p>The BoJ left interest rates unchanged at 0.00-0.10% as expected:</p><ul><li>Removes reference from statement that it currently buys about 6 trillion yen of JGBs per month.</li><li>Vote was 9-0.</li><li>Prior vote was 7-2.</li><li>Risks to the economy are generally balanced.</li><li>There are extremely high uncertainties on Japan's economic and price outlook.</li><li>Japan's economy has recovered moderately although there is some weakness.</li><li>Output gap improving, likely to gradually expand.</li><li>Medium and long term inflation expectations heightened moderately.</li><li>Financial conditions have been accommodative.</li><li>More firms starting to pass on rising wages to sales prices.</li><li>Expect positive cycle of rising wages and inflation to continue.</li><li>Vigilance needed for currency and market movements and their impact on the economy and prices.</li><li>Consumption likely to gradually increase.</li><li>Expect accommodative monetary conditions to continue for the time being.</li></ul><p>Moving on to the BoJ Governor Ueda’s Press Conference:</p><ul><li>Will adjust degree of monetary easing if underlying inflation rises.</li><li>Easy financial conditions will be maintained for the time being.</li><li>Monetary policy conduct from now on will depend on state of economy, prices at the time.</li><li>Will not judge policy based on one single indicator.</li><li>Economy outlook, risk overshoot may also be a reason for policy change.</li><li>Japanese economy has recovered moderately but some weakness is still seen.</li><li>Must pay attention to financial, FX market moves and their impact on economy, prices.</li><li>Monetary policy not aimed to control exchange rate directly.</li><li>If FX fluctuations affect underlying inflation, that could be a consideration for monetary policy.</li><li>Weak yen is not having a big impact on trend inflation so far.</li><li>But weak yen did have some impact to an extent on higher inflation forecasts.</li><li>Likelihood of achieving 2% inflation target is gradually rising.</li><li>Chance of a prolonged weakness in the yen is not zero.</li><li>We can pre-emptively judge if weak yen affects inflation, spring wage talks next year.</li><li>But FX impact on inflation is usually tentative.</li><li>If our forecasts materialise, achievement of 2% inflation target is extremely close.</li><li>Underlying inflation has been gradually rising.</li><li>Inflation is not necessarily weak if you look at other service prices.</li><li>If prices move in line with our forecasts, it would be reasonable to adjust policy and hike rates further.</li></ul><p>The US March PCE came in line with expectations:</p><ul><li>PCE Y/Y 2.7% vs. 2.6% expected and 2.5% prior. </li><li>PCE M/M 0.3% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.3% prior.</li><li>Core PCE Y/Y 2.8% vs. 2.7% expected and 2.8% prior.</li><li>Core PCE M/M 0.3% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.3% prior.</li></ul><p>Consumer spending and consumer income for March:</p><ul><li>Personal income 0.5% vs. 0.5% estimate. Prior month 0.3%.</li><li>Personal consumption 0.8% vs. 0.6% estimate. Prior month 0.8%.</li><li>Real personal spending 0.5% vs. 0.5% last month (revised from 0.4%).</li></ul><p>The highlights for next week will be:</p><ul><li>Tuesday: Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Australia Retail Sales, China PMIs, Eurozone CPI, Canada GDP, US ECI, US Consumer Confidence.</li><li>Wednesday: New Zealand Jobs data, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ADP, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US Job Openings, FOMC Policy Decision.</li><li>Thursday: Switzerland CPI, Swiss Manufacturing PMI, US Jobless Claims.</li><li>Friday: Eurozone Unemployment Rate, US NFP, Canada Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI.</li></ul><p>That’s all folks. Have a nice weekend!</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-february-pce-core-inflation-28-yy-vs-28-expected-20240329/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Prior </a>2.8% (unrevised to 2.8%)</li><li>PCE Core YoY 2.8% vs 2.7% estimate</li><li>PCE Core MoM 0.3% vs 0.3% estimate. </li><li>Prior MoM +0.3% unrevised to 0.3%</li><li>Headline PCE 2.7% vs 2.6% estimate</li><li>Headline MoM PCE 0.3% vs 0.3% expected</li><li>For the full report <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-march-2024" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">CLICK HERE</a></li></ul><p>Consumer spending and consumer income for March:</p><ul><li>Personal income 0.5% vs 0.5% estimate. Prior month 0.3%.</li><li>Personal consumption 0.8% vs 0.6% estimate. Prior month 0.8%</li><li>Real personal spending 0.5% vs 0.5% last month (revised from 0.4%).</li></ul><p>The core PCE rise was 0.32% out to 2 decimal places. So on the topside of 0.3%. This is better than was feared. Yesterday, the whispers were for a 0.4% and perhaps closer to 0.5%. </p><p>It looks like the higher PCE from yesterday''s GDP PCE was in January. January can be wonky due to end of year/beginning of year volatility. Having said that, the progress on inflation is stalled (see chart above). The Fed target is still down at 2.0% with some thinking if they got to 2.5% it would give them some ammunition to take out some of the restrictive monetary conditions. </p><p>The rate cut expectations is only marginally higher in September vs the 58% chance prior to the report.</p><p>US stocks moved higher initially (NASDAQ is up around 180 points), but have come off a bit. US yields are a few basis points lower:</p><ul><li>2-year yield 4.974%, -2.5 basis points</li><li>5-year yield 4.681%, -3.5 basis points</li><li>10 year yield 4.658%, -4.7 basis points</li><li>30-year yield 4.768%, -5.2 basis points</li></ul><p>That compares to start of the US session levels:</p><ul class="text-align-start vertical-align-baseline"><li class="vertical-align-baseline">2-year yield 4.999%</li><li class="vertical-align-baseline">5-year yield 4.708%</li><li class="vertical-align-baseline">10-year yield 4.685%</li><li class="vertical-align-baseline">30-year yield 4.791%</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-returns-to-the-highs-for-the-day-after-flash-in-the-pan-drop-20240426/">USD/JPY returns to the highs for the day after flash in the pan drop</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-hits-the-skids-in-fall-to-15500-20240426/">USD/JPY hits the skids in fall to 155.00</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-ramps-higher-as-ueda-loses-control-20240426/">USD/JPY ramps higher as Ueda loses control</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-governor-ueda-says-chance-of-a-prolonged-weakness-in-the-yen-is-not-zero-20240426/">BOJ governor Ueda says chance of a prolonged weakness in the yen is not zero</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-governor-ueda-says-will-adjust-degree-of-monetary-easing-if-underlying-inflation-rises-20240426/">BOJ governor Ueda says will adjust degree of monetary easing if underlying inflation rises</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-governor-ueda-says-will-continue-to-watch-impact-of-fx-on-economy-prices-20240426/">BOJ governor Ueda says will continue to watch impact of FX on economy, prices</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/snbs-jordan-says-central-bank-has-been-successful-in-fighting-inflation-20240426/">SNB's Jordan says central bank has been successful in fighting inflation</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/france-april-consumer-confidence-90-vs-92-expected-20240426/">France April consumer confidence 90 vs 92 expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-march-m3-money-supply-09-vs-06-yy-expected-20240426/">Eurozone March M3 money supply +0.9% vs +0.6% y/y expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/icymi-trump-advisers-consider-penalties-for-nations-shifting-away-from-the-us-dollar-20240426/">ICYMI: Trump advisers consider penalties for nations shifting away from the US dollar</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>AUD leads, JPY lags on the day</li><li>European equities higher; S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.8%</li><li>US 10-year yields down 1.4 bps to 4.692%</li><li>Gold up 0.5% to $2,344.29</li><li>WTI crude up 0.4% to $84.09</li><li>Bitcoin down 0.5% to $64,185</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">It was all about the Japanese yen during the session as the volatility swings pick up after the BOJ policy decision earlier today.</p><p class="text-align-justify">BOJ governor Ueda had his press conference but he did little to touch on the weaker yen and that was enough for traders to ramp USD/JPY higher. The pair moved up from 155.95 to 156.60 before a sudden surge higher in the yen brought the pair down to 155.00 right at the European open.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The timing of the move is largely suspect as it would be off-form for Tokyo to have intervened. The size of the move might have alluded to that at first but then the dip was quickly bought up. USD/JPY moved back up to 155.50-70 almost immediately, before regaining its composure to move to 156.80 now at the highs for the day.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Things are definitely heating up before the weekend with watchful eyes on any potential intervention from Tokyo, especially with it being a Japanese holiday on Monday. But I wouldn't rule out a move then either if there isn't anything today.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In other markets, stocks are staying underpinned after earnings beat from Alphabet and Microsoft. US futures are holding on to early gains for the most part while European indices are also posting modest gains so far on the day.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Coming up next, we have the US PCE price data to go through. That will offer traders more to work with after the Q1 GDP data yesterday. I shared some food for thought on that earlier <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/how-is-the-balance-of-risks-shaping-up-ahead-of-the-us-pce-price-data-later-today-20240426/" target="_blank" rel="follow">here</a>.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Have a great rest of the Friday and a wonderful weekend, everyone.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">If anything else, it shows that:</p><p class="text-align-justify">1) The drop earlier wasn't likely any intervention check or otherwise from Tokyo. I mean, the timing of the move was already suspect as mentioned at the time. And that is arguably the giveaway now after the fact. It is definitely easier to digest and make sense of the move two hours later of course. So, what could it have been?</p><p class="text-align-justify">2) The pair is definitely in a rather abnormal state at the moment. Plenty of traders are staying sidelined in fears of being hammered down by Tokyo. As such, perhaps larger flows would lead to exacerbated price movements - at least more so than usual. That could've been it, alongside stops being triggered in such quick fashion.</p><p class="text-align-justify">3) The dip buying shows the underlying appetite in the market right now. It's tough to fight the momentum especially with the BOJ conviction also lacking as of late. I mean, recent inflation data hasn't been shaping up the way that they're hoping it to be. And that is throwing a wrench in the works on any further rate hikes this year. That is not to mention that Japanese yen pairs are also underpinned by higher bond yields in recent weeks. Adding to that is the lack of technical resistance on the way up for USD/JPY currently.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In any case, we're back to where we were a few hours ago now. Buyers might not get too carried away for now as we await the US PCE price data coming up. But barring any surprises, we could see price action start to pick up again after that. The 157.00 mark will be an interesting level to watch, as with any big round figures from hereon.</p><p class="text-align-justify">And as mentioned earlier <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-cautiously-higher-after-boj-policy-decision-traders-await-ueda-presser-next-20240426/" target="_blank" rel="follow">here</a>, it will be interesting to see if Tokyo has the appetite to act at the last minute today. Mind you, it is a Japanese holiday on Monday. But still, I wouldn't rule out any action in the early morning then if there isn't anything before the weekend later.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">The Japanese yen might have stolen the focus during the session but it's time to forget about that for a while. The US PCE price data is coming up later and that will be an important release to watch. It is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation after all. And following the reaction to the US Q1 advance GDP data yesterday, it is clear that market players are still playing close attention to inflation data at the moment.</p><p class="text-align-justify">For now, equities are keeping the optimism after the late rebound in Wall Street yesterday. Tech shares are of course leading the charge, after earnings beat from Alphabet and Microsoft. S&amp;P 500 futures are up 0.7% while Nasdaq futures are up 1.0%. Dow futures are only up 0.2% currently. In Europe, major indices are also higher with the DAX up 0.7% and CAC 40 up 0.3% on the day.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Stocks have enjoyed a bit more of a steadier showing this week. However, it doesn't take away from the rather poor performance overall in April. Sellers are not out of the picture yet and we'll have to see if the data later offers them something to work with at the end of the week. The 100-day moving average (red line) for the S&amp;P 500 is still not too far away for now:</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">The volatility swing is in full action for the Japanese yen right now. USD/JPY saw a very quick drop from around 156.60 to 155.00 before being just as quickly bought back up now to 156.10-20 levels.</p><p class="text-align-justify">It's not immediately clear if this was a first check by Japanese officials. But the size of the drop definitely does invite such a possibility. However, the timing is definitely a little suspect as it comes during a rather active time in markets - also before the US PCE price data later.</p><p class="text-align-justify">If anything, officials tend to look for the most effective and cost-efficient time when intervening. And this is not exactly that.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Either way, the dip is being bought quite strongly and it certainly hints at caution on the kind of risk one might face if you're in any yen trade currently.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">A first taste of intervention play by Tokyo perhaps? The pair is being quickly bought up though as the volatility swing sees it back up to the 155.70-90 range at the moment. The size of the move definitely invites the idea of Japanese officials stepping in but with the quick dip buying, the effectiveness is certainly questionable given the timing and present liquidity conditions.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior +0.4%</li></ul> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">It's a case of data mismatch for the aussie and the greenback this week. The former saw stickier inflation numbers <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-q1-cpi-10-qq-expected-08-36-yy-expected-34-20240424/" target="_blank" rel="follow">here</a> while the latter saw softer PMI numbers <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/sp-global-services-pmi-509-vs-520-expected-20240423/" target="_blank" rel="follow">here</a>. That was enough to close the gap on the divergent outlook between the RBA and Fed. In turn, it helped AUD/USD to keep a solid bounce on the week. So, what is the chart saying now?</p><p class="text-align-justify">The pair initially saw its upside limited by the 200-day moving average (blue line) earlier this week. But today, that key level has been broken and buyers are even pushing price above the 61.8 Fib retracement level of the swing lower this month - seen at 0.6536. Keep above both those levels and the upside momentum will have legs to run further.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The next key technical resistance will only come in at the 100-day moving average (red line) at 0.6584 currently.</p><p class="text-align-justify">For trading though, just be wary that we still do have one big hurdle to go through. The US PCE price index is coming up later today. But <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/how-is-the-balance-of-risks-shaping-up-ahead-of-the-us-pce-price-data-later-today-20240426/" target="_blank" rel="follow">the balance of risks</a> might just favour a continuation of a softer dollar in this case. We'll see.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">BOJ governor Ueda is still speaking but he's not saying anything about the currency and recent developments. He's preaching to the choir in saying that the inflation trend is still intact and they could still raise rates again at some point. But that's not what yen traders are really focusing on at the moment.</p><p class="text-align-justify">On the currency itself, he said he won't make any comment on FX levels. But when he did touch on the yen situation, he said <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-governor-ueda-says-chance-of-a-prolonged-weakness-in-the-yen-is-not-zero-20240426/" target="_blank" rel="follow">this</a>.</p><p class="text-align-justify">So, what's next for USD/JPY as the pair is seeing a gain of roughly 100 pips today?</p><p class="text-align-justify">It's all about if Tokyo sees this as being a move that is going too far, too fast. The line in the sand has definitely shifted now. And you have to wonder, if we do see price take out another figure level in 157, are they going to at least step in once before the 160 mark?</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Eurostoxx +0.5%</li><li>Germany DAX +0.6%</li><li>France CAC 40 +0.5%</li><li>UK FTSE +0.7%</li><li>Spain IBEX +0.6%</li><li>Italy FTSE MIB +0.6%</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">The better sentiment is carried by tech shares though, with S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.8% and Nasdaq futures up 1.1% on the day. That follows from better earnings by Alphabet and Microsoft. The late rebound in Wall Street to pare some of the losses yesterday is also helping with the mood somewhat.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">There was some profit-taking in the run up to Ueda's press conference. But as soon as he started speaking, the focus has been more on what he didn't say as opposed to anything else. And when he did touch on the Japanese yen, he didn't do the currency any favours by saying that <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-governor-ueda-says-chance-of-a-prolonged-weakness-in-the-yen-is-not-zero-20240426/" target="_blank" rel="follow">there is a chance</a> that it could see a sustained period of weakness.</p><p class="text-align-justify">It's not a full on green light for USD/JPY bulls but as <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-cautiously-higher-after-boj-policy-decision-traders-await-ueda-presser-next-20240426/" target="_blank" rel="follow">mentioned</a> earlier, it need not be for the pair to ramp higher on the day.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">Forecasts, schmorecasts. It's tough to even make a call six months from now, let alone talking about projections in a year or two. Besides, their own latest inflation data isn't encouraging whatsoever as seen <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-underlying-inflation-measures-slowed-in-march-boj-20240423/" target="_blank" rel="follow">here</a>.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.