<ul><li>Prior was 0.0%</li><li>Retail inventories vs -0.5% prior</li></ul><p>This is a low-tier indicator but it's an important one for GDP and this biases Q3 to the upside. Expect to see GDP trackers climb after this number and the earlier retail sales report.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior month 35</li></ul><p dir="auto" class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer"></p><p dir="auto" class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">US homebuilder confidence weakened more than expected in September:</p><ul><li>NAHB Housing Market Index: 32 vs 34 expected. Prior 35</li></ul><p dir="auto">September components compared with August:</p><ul><li>Current sales conditions: 35 vs 39</li><li>Sales expectations for the next six months: 37 vs 43</li><li>Traffic of prospective buyers: 23 vs 23</li></ul><p dir="auto">Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell three points to 32 in September, below the market estimate of 34 and down from 35 in August.</p><p dir="auto">The details were also weak. The index measuring current sales conditions declined four points to 35, while expectations for sales over the next six months dropped six points to 37. Prospective-buyer traffic remained unchanged at a depressed 23.</p><p dir="auto">Builders are increasingly turning to discounts and other incentives to generate demand. The share of builders cutting prices increased to 38% from 35% in August. The average price reduction remained at 6% for the sixth consecutive month.</p><p dir="auto">Meanwhile, 66% of builders used sales incentives, up from 63% in August and the highest percentage since the 67% reading in December. That suggests affordability pressures and elevated borrowing costs continue to make it difficult for builders to convert prospective buyers into actual sales.</p><p dir="auto">Quick analysis: This was a weaker-than-expected report, but the sharp drop in six-month sales expectations is arguably the most concerning detail. Builders are not only reporting soft current conditions; they are becoming less confident about the near-term outlook.</p><p dir="auto">The increased use of price cuts and sales incentives is another sign that demand remains under pressure. Although discounting could eventually help improve affordability, it also suggests builders must work harder to attract buyers.</p><p dir="auto">For markets, weaker housing data could marginally support a less hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and normally lean slightly negative for the US dollar and Treasury yields. However, the NAHB report is typically a secondary market mover, especially with the Fed rate decision approaching.</p><p dir="auto">What this report measures: The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is a monthly survey of single-family homebuilders. Builders assess current sales, expected sales over the next six months and traffic from prospective buyers.</p><p dir="auto">The headline index ranges from zero to 100. A reading above 50 means more builders consider market conditions good than poor, while a reading below 50 indicates predominantly negative sentiment. The report is watched as an early indicator of housing demand, residential construction and the effects of mortgage rates on buyer affordability.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior month import prices -0.3% revised from -0.4%</li><li>Prior month export prices -1.4%</li></ul><p dir="auto" class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">US import and export prices for August:</p><ul><li> Import prices MoM: +0.7% vs +0.4% expected. Prior −0.3% </li><li> Export prices MoM: +0.6% vs +0.5% expected. Prior −1.4% </li><li> Import prices YoY: +7.0% </li><li> Export prices YoY: +8.6% </li></ul><p dir="auto">More details on Import and export prices:</p><p dir="auto" class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">Import-price components—August versus July:</p><ul><li>Fuel imports: −0.1% vs −6.6%</li><li>Nonfuel imports: +0.8% vs +0.3%</li><li> Foods, feeds and beverages: +0.1% vs +0.7% </li><li> Nonfuel industrial supplies and materials: +2.0% vs −0.9% </li><li>Capital goods: +0.9%</li><li>Consumer goods excluding automobiles: +0.5%</li><li>Automotive vehicles, parts and engines: Unchanged</li></ul><p dir="auto" class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">Export-price components for August compared with July:</p><ul><li>Agricultural exports: +0.5% vs +0.4% last month</li><li>Nonagricultural exports: +0.7% vs −1.6% last month</li><li>Nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials: +1.4% vs −4.0% last month</li><li>Capital goods: +0.2%</li><li>Automotive vehicles, parts and engines: +0.3%</li><li>Consumer goods excluding automobiles: Unchanged</li></ul><p dir="auto" class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">US import and export prices rose more than expected in August, adding to evidence that inflation pressures remain elevated.</p><p dir="auto">The import-price details were even stronger than the headline suggests. Overall import prices increased 0.7%, even as fuel prices edged 0.1% lower. Excluding fuel, prices rose a stronger 0.8%, led by a 2.0% increase in nonfuel industrial supplies and materials and a 0.9% rise in capital-goods prices.</p><p dir="auto">The increase in capital-goods prices was driven by computers, peripherals and semiconductors, industrial and service machinery, and telecommunications equipment. Consumer-goods prices excluding automobiles rose 0.5%.</p><p dir="auto">On the export side, prices increased for both agricultural and nonagricultural products. Nonagricultural export prices rebounded 0.7%, led by higher prices for industrial materials, capital goods and automotive products. Agricultural export prices rose 0.5% and have not recorded a monthly decline since December 2025.</p><p dir="auto">The annual figures were also firm. Import prices increased 7.0% from a year earlier, the largest annual rise since August 2022. Export prices advanced 8.6%, including an 8.9% increase in nonagricultural export prices.</p><p dir="auto">Quick analysis: This is a stronger and more inflationary report than the headline alone might suggest. Import prices did not rise because of fuel. Instead, the strength came from nonfuel goods—including industrial materials, computers, semiconductors, machinery and consumer goods.</p><p dir="auto">That matters because broad nonfuel price increases have a greater chance of working their way through supply chains and eventually reaching producer and consumer prices. The rise in both import and export prices also suggests that inflation pressure is not confined to one side of US international trade.</p><p dir="auto">For the Federal Reserve, this report argues for continued caution. All else equal, hotter price data could support Treasury yields and the US dollar. However, the market impact may be limited ahead of today’s Fed decision, where the rate announcement and guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will be the main focus.</p><p dir="auto">What this report measures: Import prices track changes in what US buyers pay for goods and services purchased from abroad. Export prices measure changes in what US producers receive for goods and services sold overseas. Traders watch these monthly indexes for early signs of inflation moving through international supply chains before those costs potentially appear in broader producer and consumer inflation report</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior month +18.3% revised to 18.5%</li></ul><p dir="auto" class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">Canada’s July building permits:</p><ul><li>Building permits MoM: -17.3% vs -6.4% expected. Prior +18.5%</li><li>Total permit value: $12.2 billion, down $2.6 billion from June</li><li>Constant-dollar permit value: -17.5% MoM and -2.2% YoY</li></ul><p dir="auto">July sectors compared with June:</p><ul><li>Non-residential: -$1.9 billion to $5.0 billion</li><li>Residential: -$701.2 million to $7.2 billion</li><li>Institutional: -$1.5 billion to $1.7 billion</li><li>Industrial: -$443.3 million to $795.5 million</li><li>Commercial: +$41.0 million to $2.5 billion</li><li>Multi-unit residential: -$531.8 million to $4.7 billion</li><li>Single-family residential: -$169.4 million to $2.5 billion</li></ul><p dir="auto">The total value of Canadian building permits fell 17.3% in July to $12.2 billion, according to <a class="decorated-link cursor-pointer" href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260916/dq260916a-eng.htm" rel="follow">Statistics Canada</a>. The result was considerably weaker than the 6.4% decline expected and nearly reversed June’s 18.5% increase.</p><p dir="auto">The weakness was broad but was led by the non-residential sector, where permit values declined $1.9 billion to $5.0 billion. Institutional construction intentions accounted for most of that decline, falling $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion. Ontario led the institutional pullback with a $1.1 billion decline, followed by Quebec and British Columbia.</p><p dir="auto">Industrial permits also declined $443.3 million to $795.5 million, with Saskatchewan, Ontario and Alberta leading the decrease. Commercial permits were the lone area of non-residential growth, rising a modest $41.0 million to $2.5 billion.</p><p dir="auto">Residential construction intentions fell $701.2 million to $7.2 billion. The multi-unit component accounted for most of the decline, falling $531.8 million to $4.7 billion, while single-family permits declined $169.4 million to $2.5 billion.</p><p dir="auto">Municipalities authorized 19,200 multi-unit dwellings and 4,100 single-family homes during July. The combined number was down 10.1% from June. Over the 12 months through July, 297,100 multi-unit dwellings were authorized, down from 308,200 during the previous 12-month period.</p><p dir="auto">Quick analysis: This was a weak report. The headline decline was nearly three times the size expected and was not limited to one narrow residential category. Institutional, industrial, multi-unit and single-family construction intentions all fell.</p><p dir="auto">Some of the decline represents a reversal of June’s unusually strong increase, particularly in large institutional projects. Building-permit data can be volatile because one or two major projects can produce large monthly swings. Nevertheless, the 2.2% year-over-year decline in constant-dollar terms and the drop in authorized housing units suggest underlying construction momentum was also softer.</p><p dir="auto">The report could be marginally negative for the Canadian dollar and may reinforce a cautious Bank of Canada outlook. However, inflation, employment and consumer-spending data will normally have a greater influence on Bank of Canada policy expectations.</p><p dir="auto">What this report measures: Building permits measure the value of residential and non-residential construction projects authorized by Canadian municipalities. They are considered a forward-looking indicator because a permit is generally required before construction begins.</p><p dir="auto">The data can provide an early signal about future housing construction, business investment and overall economic activity. However, the monthly figures can be volatile, particularly when large institutional, commercial or multi-unit projects are approved</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was -0.6% (revised to -0.5%)</li><li>Ex autos +1.4% vs +0.5% expected</li><li>Prior ex-autos -0.3% (revised to -0.2%)</li><li>Retail sales control group +1.4% vs +0.4% expected</li><li>Prior control was -0.4%&nbsp;</li><li>Ex autos and&nbsp; gas +1.2% vs -0.2% prior (revised to -0.3%)</li><li>Retail sales y/y nominal 6.0% vs 5.01%&nbsp;prior</li></ul><p>This is a very strong report right down the list and yet-another reason for the Fed to hike rates. It's also a reason to continue hiking rates beyond today.</p><p>Retail control group:</p><p></p><p>Before the data, a hike was 92% priced in and that's unmoved. Two full hikes remain priced in through year end.</p><p>Details:</p><ul><li>Gasoline +3.1% m/m</li><li>Nonstore retailers +2.6% m/m</li><li>Electronics and appliances +1.6% m/m</li><li>Sporting goods and hobbies +1.2% m/m</li><li>Restaurants and bars +1.2% m/m</li><li>Building materials -0.2%</li><li>Furniture +1.9%</li></ul><p>Once again, never underestimate the spending power of the US consumer. I expect we would be seeing a more notable market reaction if it weren't Fed day. The market moves on this are minimal.</p><p></p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="/central-banks/fomc-preview-the-question-is-not-whether-the-fed-hikes-today-but-how-much-tightening-it-signals" rel="follow">FOMC preview: The question is not whether the Fed hikes today, but how much tightening it signals</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-rate-decision-warsh-walks-credibility-tightrope-as-markets-brace-for-rate-hike" rel="follow">Fed rate decision: Warsh walks credibility tightrope as markets brace for rate hike</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/why-markets-have-left-the-fed-little-choice-but-to-hike-rates" rel="follow">Why markets have left the Fed little choice but to hike rates</a></li><li><a href="/news/uk-headline-inflation-tops-3-again-in-august-but-core-prices-remain-steady" rel="follow">UK headline inflation tops 3% again in August, but core prices remain steady</a></li><li><a href="/news/canada-could-become-the-first-associate-member-of-the-eu-says-eu-chief-von-der-leyen" rel="follow">Canada could become the first 'associate member' of the EU, says EU chief von der Leyen</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/this-gold-analysis-looks-bullish-ahead-of-the-fed-what-to-watch-0" rel="follow">This Gold Analysis Looks Bullish Ahead of the Fed: What to Watch</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/gold-traders-await-the-fomc-decision-for-the-next-direction-what-details-to-watch" rel="follow">Gold traders await the FOMC decision for the next direction. What details to watch?</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/after-the-failed-clarity-act-vote-bitcoin-could-extend-losses-if-the-fomc-delivers-a-hawkish-surprise" rel="follow">After the failed Clarity Act vote, Bitcoin could extend losses if the FOMC delivers a hawkish surprise</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Brent crude oil -1.4% to $107.20</li><li>WTI crude oil -2.3% to $103.35</li><li>US 10-year yields -1.2 bps to 4.983%</li><li>US dollar little changed</li><li>European stocks higher; S&amp;P 500 futures +0.2%</li><li>Gold +1.4% to $4,351</li><li>Bitcoin up 0.1% to $75,951</li></ul><p></p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">It is pretty much the calm before the storm.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">As markets brace for the Fed decision later, European markets were mostly steadier in trading today. Oil prices and bond yields are coming off the boil, affording a breather to investors ahead of the crucial Fed policy meeting conclusion that is to come.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Brent crude is down 1.4% to $107.20 while WTI crude is down over 2% to $103.35, and 10-year Treasury yields have also eased in slipping to 4.983% on the day.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The retreat looks more like position squaring ahead of the Fed rather than a fundamental rethink, particularly with oil still above $100 and 10-year yields hovering just below the 5% mark.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Elsewhere, the dollar is trading relatively flat today, with little changes among major currencies in general.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">UK inflation data reaffirmed a move up in headline CPI for August but as core prices remained steady, that is not going to do much to change the BOE picture ahead of their own decision tomorrow.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">In other markets, European stocks are pushing up slightly in cutting some losses from earlier this week. Meanwhile, US futures are also holding a little higher with S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.2% and Nasdaq futures up by 0.4% currently.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Looking to precious metals, gold is up 1.4% to $4,351 and silver up 1.9% to $64.85 in a modest bounce ahead of US trading later.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">But again, this all feels like more of a breather rather than any major turn in sentiment. It's still all to play for with the Fed decision and Warsh's press conference later today. That will be the main event for markets, potentially setting the tone for the remainder of the week.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p><p></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p class="isSelectedEnd">US officials held talks with Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis in Oman over the weekend, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-officials-met-iran-backed-houthis-oman-over-weekend-sources-say-2026-09-16/" rel="follow">according to five sources familiar with the matter cited by Reuters</a>. The meeting comes as the Houthis have expanded their control along Yemen's Red Sea coast, increasing the strategic importance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and putting further pressure on Saudi Arabia.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">The talks were reportedly held at the US Embassy in Muscat, with Oman helping to arrange the meeting. While the US State Department did not confirm that the meeting took place, it said that protecting freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and preventing the spread of terrorism from the Middle East remain core US interests.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">According to two sources, Houthi representatives told US officials that they had no intention of attacking American vessels and remained committed to the ceasefire reached with Washington in 2025.&nbsp;One Yemeni source said the Houthis also indicated that they would not attack Israeli ships or commercial vessels, with the exception of vessels belonging to Saudi Arabia. The&nbsp;exemption for Saudi vessels leaves an important risk in place for markets.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly spoke with Trump last week to seek US military support following the Houthi advances. Reuters reported separately that Washington told Riyadh it would not become directly involved in the conflict.&nbsp;For markets, the key question is whether the latest diplomatic contacts can prevent the conflict from spreading further into regional shipping and energy infrastructure.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">I would keep a close eye on these diplomatic efforts as a de-escalation in the Houthi-Saudi tensions could lower oil prices in the short-term, ease concerns a bit and lead to a dovish repricing. That could in turn trigger a relief rally in risk assets, giving stocks, gold and bitcoin a boost.&nbsp;</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">This is a rather bold proposal coming from European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, in her&nbsp;her annual state of the European Union address in Strasbourg.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">She has opened the door&nbsp;for Canada to become the first "associate member" of the EU, backing Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney's pitch for a more "unique security and economic alliance" with Europe.</p><blockquote style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">"Dear Mark, I said we must urgently reimagine our partnerships so I would like to work with you on opening the door for Canada to being the first associate member of the European Union. In short, we want to bring the relationship with Canada to the highest level possible. This is not a partnership against anyone else, but for our common strength. We share one ocean, one set of values, one way of seeing the world. And we will now build our shared future as well."</blockquote><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Carney was of course in the audience for this, and has been coy about the whole situation in the run up to von der Leyen's speech today.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Just yesterday, he even said that Canada is not seeking to be an official member of the EU. But with this latest news, it seems that being an "associate member" - whatever that might end up entailing - is very much on the table.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">For some context, the EU does not have any framework for an "associate membership". That means von der Leyen will have to require&nbsp;unanimous approval from the bloc’s 27 member states in order to push through this proposal.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">And with that, there are still no details on what being an "associate member" would mean for Canada in this instance. However, it is likely that it could involve a trade or security pact at the very least.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">There will likely be some pushback from some member states, worried about Canada being given preferential treatment beyond the existing trade and investment partnerships. However, the person most likely to be unhappy over this situation and voice out his immense displeasure will be US president Trump.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">His trade war with both the EU and Canada is pretty much one of the major reasons pushing both sides together now. Trump called Canada "the worst country to deal with" and one can imagine that he might be readying up more tariffs in response to this special partnership.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, the main highlight was the <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/uk-headline-inflation-tops-3-again-in-august-but-core-prices-remain-steady/" rel="follow">UK CPI report</a>. The data came mostly in line with expectations, with a slight miss on Services CPI measure. For now, the BoE has enough reasons to keep rates steady and maintain a tightening bias given the soft employment data and limited inflation spillover. </p><p>The market is pricing in around 80% chance of no change in rates at tomorrow's meeting and a total of 45 bps of tigthening by year-end. The market is still betting on rate hikes due to elevated energy prices.&nbsp;</p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, we have the US Retail Sales, the BoC meeting minutes and the FOMC rate decision. It goes without saying that the focus is going to be solely on the FOMC decision. The Fed is expected to hike rates by 25 bps, bringing the FFR to 3.75-4.00%. </p><p>The focus will be mainly on the dot plot where the median projection is expected to show rates peaking 75 bps higher (two rate hikes in 2026 and one in 2027).&nbsp;Warsh is again not expected to offer forward guidance but to repeat his hawkish Jackson Hole message.</p><p>CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS</p><ul><li>12:15 GMT/08:15 ET - ECB's Vujcic (neutral - voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>UK August CPI +3.1% vs +3.1% y/y expected</li><li>Prior +2.9%</li><li>UK August core CPI +2.6% vs +2.6% y/y expected</li><li>Prior +2.6%</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The main readings are all within estimates, with UK headline inflation seen picking up again in August - jumping above 3% for the first time since March.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Higher energy prices was the biggest contributor, amid an increase in prices for diesel and petrol. For some context, diesel prices rose by 14.2 pence per litre in August 2026, compared with a rise of 0.8 pence per litre in August 2025.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Meanwhile, the average price of petrol rose by 9.1 pence per litre between July and August 2026, compared with a rise of 0.3 pence per litre between July and August 2025.&nbsp;The average price stood at 161.3 pence per litre in August 2026. This is the highest price recorded since November 2022.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">For the BOE, the more important metric is core annual inflation and this was seen holding steady at 2.6% in August - the same as in July. The reading here is reaffirmed by services inflation also keeping unchanged at 3.4% in August.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">There was a much smaller upward effect from air fares than anticipated, with that only rising by 6.2% from July to August. Analyst estimates coming into the report varied but <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/uk-cpi-preview-inflation-test-lands-just-before-the-boe-rate-decision/" rel="follow">most were convinced that the uptick here would be enough to push services inflation to 3.5% in August</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Overall, the report is one which is very much in-line with estimates and without a further push up in services inflation, it doesn't change the inflation picture all too much for the BOE ahead of their decision tomorrow.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The evidence for meaningful second-round effects remains limited. And that will be the narrative that policymakers can stick with in keeping interest rates unchanged for this week. That being said, it will be a tightly contested call among policymakers - whichever way the vote.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The UK inflation report for August today is going to be the main highlight in terms of economic data releases in the European session later today. With it coming just a day before the BOE rate decision tomorrow, it is the last meaningful piece of the puzzle for policymakers before they cast their votes.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">To start off, let's see what the numbers have to say.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Headline annual inflation is expected to rise to around 3.1% in August, up from 2.9% previously. That is roughly&nbsp;three tenths above the BOE's own forecast.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Just on that alone, it sounds rather uncomfortable. However, I wouldn't get too carried away with the headline figure on its own as the devil is always in the details when it comes to inflation data.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Much of the jump in headline inflation is expected to come from the surge in&nbsp;petrol and diesel prices,&nbsp;which could account for roughly two tenths of the forecast miss. That matters because policymakers will be much more interested in whether the latest energy shock is spreading to other key categories rather than simply reacting to higher fuel costs themselves.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">That once again puts the spotlight on core annual inflation. That is expected around 2.6% in August, keeping unchanged from the reading previously.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Core goods inflation is expected to be broadly stable, so that will put services inflation firmly in focus.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The consensus for the latter is for around 3.5% and that is still well above the BOE's forecast of around 3.26%. That being said, categories like&nbsp;air fares could make the reading particularly noisy.&nbsp;July's air fare increase was unusually soft, so some normalisation in August is expected. Analyst estimates vary enormously, but a rise of around 10% m/m would alone contribute roughly 8 bps to services inflation. So, that is something to take note of.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">But in other words,&nbsp;a 3.5% services print isn't necessarily as hawkish as it might first appear to be. The details matter.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">And that will probably be the key distinction for the BOE decision tomorrow. The central bank already knows that inflation is going higher. But what policymakers really need to know, is whether&nbsp;those price pressures are becoming more embedded elsewhere in the economy.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">So far,&nbsp;the evidence for meaningful second-round effects remains limited.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">With that in mind, an in-line report should still allow the BOE to get away with keeping the bank rate unchanged at 3.75% tomorrow.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">A&nbsp;meaningful upside surprise in underlying services inflation (in turn, core annual inflation) could still see&nbsp;markets bring forward expectations for another BOE rate hike. For sterling and gilts, that will be the key spot to watch when it comes to the release later. However, it will take a very sizable surprise to convince of a change for markets to price in a rate hike for this week.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The current backdrop shows that traders have already fully priced in a 25 bps rate hike for November next with another in December almost fully priced in as well. The market pricing trajectory through to June next year sees ~103 bps of rate hikes priced in. So, how the curve moves here after today's report will be the more interesting bit.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

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The coalition described security of the two holy mosques as a "red line" and said it would take the necessary measures against the group in response.</p><p dir="ltr">On the data front, Japan's machinery orders fell short of forecasts in July, while the country's August trade deficit widened more than expected as import growth continued to outpace exports. The figures added a cautious note to Japan's growth and capital expenditure outlook. The yen lost some ground following the release before recovering to trade little changed on the session.</p><p dir="ltr">Major currencies traded in a subdued range ahead of today's Federal Open Market Committee decision, with markets widely expecting a rate hike. Japanese and South Korean equities similarly traded in narrow, cautious ranges as investors awaited the outcome.</p><p dir="ltr">Crypto markets came under pressure following developments out of the United States on Tuesday. The Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act on a cloture vote, denying the crypto industry a unified federal regulatory framework and confirming that oversight will continue through existing SEC and CFTC rulemaking rather than statute. Bitcoin extended its losses on the result, though the outcome had been broadly anticipated by markets ahead of the vote.</p><p dir="ltr">--</p><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">The improved but still below-trend reading gives the Reserve Bank some room to hold at its September meeting without abandoning its tightening bias, consistent with Westpac's own call for a very hawkish hold ahead of a further rate rise later this year. For AUD, the report's signal cuts both ways: firmer momentum and a resilient June quarter support the case for additional hikes, typically supportive for the currency on rate differential grounds, while the report's own caution that labour markets, financial markets, commodity prices and consumer sentiment remain soft leaves room for disappointment if the improvement doesn't hold. Rising fuel prices and a housing market downturn are flagged as fresh headwinds to sentiment that could weigh on domestic demand and, by extension, the RBA's confidence to keep tightening. Markets will likely treat the data as a modest positive for the RBA's hawkish stance without materially shifting near term rate expectations, given the central bank is not expected to move again until after the October 28 inflation update.</p><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr">- Westpac's Leading Index shows Australian growth momentum still soft but improving, enough to keep the RBA hawkish without forcing a September hike, with another rate rise expected once October's inflation data confirms the picture.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index growth rate rose to -0.09% in August from -0.17% in July, still below the long-run trend</li><li>Momentum has improved since mid-year but remains softer than the +0.26% average pace recorded through most of 2025</li><li>The current below-trend run is described as milder than the 2022-2024 cost-of-living period, when the index averaged -0.46% with lows near -1%</li><li>A ramp-up in data centre investment and firmer dwelling approvals have helped offset drags from labour markets, financial markets, commodity prices and consumer sentiment</li><li>Westpac has upgraded its year-end annual growth forecast to 1.5%, from a previous 1% forecast</li><li>Westpac expects the RBA to hold rates at its September 28-29 meeting but hike again after the October 28 quarterly inflation update, calling the September decision a "very hawkish hold"</li></ul><p dir="ltr">Westpac's Leading Index of Economic Activity showed a further improvement in August, with the six-month annualised growth rate rising to -0.09% from -0.17% in July, according to the bank's economics team. While the reading remains below the long-run trend, it points to momentum stabilising rather than deteriorating further, a signal Westpac says is broadly consistent with the resilience shown in the Australian economy through the June quarter national accounts.</p><p dir="ltr">The improvement comes against a backdrop in which the Reserve Bank of Australia has already raised interest rates three times this year in its effort to bring inflation back toward the 2 to 3 percent target, with further tightening still expected. Westpac's own economists believe the central bank will hike again before year end, though they think the RBA will hold off at its upcoming September 28-29 meeting until a fuller quarterly inflation update is released on October 28. Westpac describes the likely September outcome as a "very hawkish hold."</p><p dir="ltr">The Leading Index's growth rate is now roughly back to where it stood six months ago, having eased only slightly from the -0.07% pace recorded in February. That said, the composition of the improvement has shifted meaningfully. Over the past six months, bigger drags have come from labour markets, financial markets, commodity prices and consumer sentiment, which combined have taken 0.42 percentage points off the index's growth rate since February. That weakness has been offset by a more positive signal from dwelling approvals, adding 0.32 percentage points, and a firming in US industrial production, contributing a further 0.08 percentage points.</p><p dir="ltr">Westpac cautions that this mix raises questions about how durable the recent improvement will prove. Rising fuel prices and concerns about further rate increases appear to be weighing on consumer sentiment once again, while a downturn in established housing markets is also having an effect. Westpac warns these pressures could intensify in the near term and potentially spread to other components of the index.</p><p dir="ltr">Even so, Westpac has upgraded its year-end annual growth forecast to 1.5%, from a previous estimate of 1%, judging that the economy's relatively resilient performance through the June quarter is likely to extend through the second half of 2026 and into early 2027, notwithstanding the drag from higher interest rates and a global energy shock.</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>The soft machinery orders print undercuts the case for near term Bank of Japan tightening, as a weaker leading capex signal suggests the investment side of the economy may be losing steam just as the BoJ weighs its next move on policy normalisation.</p><p>I suspect, along with most everyone else that a rate hike this week is baked in:</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0"><a class="article-link" href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/preview-goldman-sachs-sees-yen-and-nikkei-risk-building-on-faster-boj-rate-path/" target="_self" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0; color: rgba(140, 77, 223, 1); cursor: pointer; text-decoration: underline; transition: 0.3s" rel="follow">Preview: Goldman Sachs sees yen and Nikkei risk building on faster BoJ rate path</a></li></ul><p> That argues for a more cautious central bank stance, potentially delaying any further rate hike, perhaps in December. </p><p>At the same time, the wider than expected trade deficit, driven by import costs continuing to outpace export growth, keeps imported inflation pressure in the mix, a factor the BoJ will not want to dismiss even as growth signals soften. This creates a genuine policy tension for the central bank between a cooling investment outlook and persistent cost push inflation from the import side. The yen has so far shown limited reaction to the data, softening a little, but a Bank of Japan viewed as more hesitant to hike could weigh on the currency over time, while continued yen softness would in turn keep import costs elevated and reinforce the same trade deficit dynamic. </p><p>For the Nikkei, a more dovish BoJ read would typically be supportive, cheaper yen and lower rates have historically favoured Japanese exporters and equities more broadly, though the weaker capex signal is a mild offset for sectors tied to domestic business investment.</p><p>-</p><p dir="ltr"> A soft capex signal and a wider trade gap give Japan's economic picture a slightly cautious tilt this week, even as both imports and exports beat forecasts individually.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>Japanese core machinery orders fell 3.7% month on month in July, missing forecasts for a 2.8% decline and reversing a 9.7% rise the previous month</li><li>On an annual basis, machinery orders rose 11.2%, below the 15.3% forecast and down from 16.9% previously</li><li>Japan's August trade balance showed a deficit of 1105.6 billion yen, wider than the 1052.6 billion yen expected and well above July's 638.3 billion yen shortfall</li><li>Imports rose 28.0% year on year in August, ahead of the 26.3% forecast though only slightly above July's 27.9% pace</li><li>Exports rose 19.3% year on year, ahead of the 18.2% forecast but a clear slowdown from July's 23.2% growth rate</li><li>The combination of a weaker leading capex indicator and a widening trade deficit presents a mixed picture for the world's fourth largest economy</li></ul><p dir="ltr">Japan's latest economic data presented a mixed picture on Tuesday, with a key leading indicator for business investment falling well short of expectations while the country's trade deficit widened more than forecast, driven by import growth that continued to outpace exports.</p><p dir="ltr">Core machinery orders, a closely watched gauge of future capital expenditure, fell 3.7% in July from the previous month, against expectations for a 2.8% decline and reversing a 9.7% increase in June. On a year on year basis, orders rose 11.2%, below the 15.3% pace expected by economists and a step down from June's 16.9% growth. The indicator tends to lead actual capex spending by several months, so the miss raises questions about the durability of Japan's recent investment momentum, even as the broader trend has remained positive over the past year.</p><p dir="ltr">Separately, Japan's trade balance for August showed a deficit of 1105.6 billion yen, wider than the 1052.6 billion yen shortfall economists had forecast and a sharp deterioration from July's 638.3 billion yen deficit. The widening gap was driven primarily by imports, which grew 28.0% year on year, ahead of forecasts for 26.3% growth though only marginally faster than July's already elevated 27.9% pace. Exports also beat expectations, rising 19.3% against a forecast of 18.2%, but that represented a clear slowdown from July's 23.2% growth rate, suggesting external demand for Japanese goods may be losing some momentum even as it remains historically solid.</p><p dir="ltr">Taken together, the data complicate the picture for policymakers at the Bank of Japan, who have been weighing the pace of further monetary policy normalisation. A softer capex signal argues for a more cautious approach to tightening, while a trade deficit driven by elevated import costs, likely reflecting energy and raw material prices, keeps some inflationary pressure in the pipeline that the central bank cannot fully ignore. Investors will be watching upcoming data releases closely to determine whether this week's figures represent a temporary soft patch or the start of a more sustained slowdown in Japan's investment and trade momentum.&nbsp;</p><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">The core of the US proposal is a hard cap on how much of an AI server, chip or related piece of hardware can be built from parts sourced outside North America, which would directly hit the assembly model many firms have used to route Chinese made components through Mexico. That threshold, once set, would raise costs and complexity for manufacturers who have shifted AI hardware production south of the border partly to keep goods moving into the US with lower tariff exposure than Chinese equivalents face. Chipmakers and contract manufacturers with cross border supply chains are the most exposed, since ordinary semiconductors used in AI servers currently enter the US largely tariff free. Any firm outsourcing final assembly to Mexico while sourcing components from China or elsewhere in Asia would need to reassess its supply chain if a strict North American content threshold is adopted.</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr">Washington wants a hard limit on how much of an AI chip or server can be built from parts sourced outside North America.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>The US proposal would cap the amount of non-North American content allowed in the production of AI hardware including chips and servers, the Wall Street Journal reported</li><li>The aim is to stop Chinese and other foreign firms from routing components through Mexico to avoid US tariffs</li><li>The proposal is part of talks to revise the USMCA, a deal President Trump has repeatedly threatened to abandon</li><li>AI hardware has become Mexico's top export to the US this year, overtaking automobiles</li><li>A new round of US-Mexico trade talks is expected in Washington as early as next week</li><li>Sen. Bernie Moreno said the goal is to stop China using Mexico and Canada as a gateway around US trade restrictions</li></ul><p dir="ltr">The United States wants Mexico to accept a cap on how much of an AI hardware product, including chips and servers, can be built from components sourced outside North America, the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/u-s-pressures-mexico-to-box-out-chinas-ai-hardware-exports-4f708103" rel="follow">Wall Street Journal (gated) reported</a>, citing people familiar with the negotiations. The proposal is designed to stop Chinese and other foreign firms from using Mexican assembly to sidestep US tariffs on Chinese made goods.</p><p dir="ltr">The rules of origin threshold under discussion would apply to a category of hardware that has expanded rapidly and become Mexico's largest single export to the US this year, overtaking automobiles. That growth reflects how much manufacturing capacity has shifted south of the border as companies look to keep AI equipment moving into the US market while facing lower tariff exposure than Chinese made equivalents.</p><p dir="ltr">The talks form part of a broader renegotiation of the US Mexico Canada Agreement, the trilateral trade deal President Trump has repeatedly threatened to walk away from. A fresh round of discussions between US and Mexican trade officials is expected in Washington as soon as next week, when the two sides are also likely to take up potential reductions in US tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles.</p><p dir="ltr">Washington is not limiting its ambitions to AI hardware alone. Officials are also considering similar content thresholds for other goods, including medical equipment, to reduce Chinese content across supply chains routed through Mexico. The gap in current tariff treatment is significant: cars, auto parts and advanced computer chips already face levies, but the more common semiconductors used in AI infrastructure can currently enter the US largely tariff free, leaving a route officials worry Chinese suppliers could exploit.</p><p dir="ltr">Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio, who has been consulting with Mexican industry groups on the issue, told the Journal his concern is China using the Western Hemisphere to circumvent existing US trade agreements by having goods labeled as Mexican made when they are effectively Chinese in origin. He argued that any renewed trade agreement needs to prevent Mexico and Canada from becoming a channel for China to get around US trade restrictions.</p><p dir="ltr">If a strict North American content threshold is adopted, it would add a new layer of compliance for manufacturers and could reshape investment decisions in Mexico's fast growing electronics sector, at a moment when the broader USMCA relationship remains under active renegotiation.</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>I think we can all agree it's a wating day for the FOMC.</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/the-fed-battleground-is-no-longer-wednesday-s-meeting-but-the-ones-afterwards" target="_blank" rel="follow">The Fed battleground is no longer Wednesday's meeting, but the ones afterwards</a></li></ul><p>Calendar for the session ahead:</p><p></p><p></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/commodities/explosions-heard-in-saudi-arabia" rel="follow">Explosions heard in Saudi Arabia</a></li><li><a href="/forex/canadians-continued-to-spend-through-august-rbc-spending-tracker-shows" rel="follow">Canadians continued to spend through August - RBC spending tracker shows</a></li><li><a href="/forex/us-20-year-bond-auction-tails-by-2-bps" rel="follow">US 20-year bond auction tails by 2 bps</a></li><li><a href="/forex/bessent-for-a-nominal-amount-the-us-treasury-was-able-to-signal-support-for-japanese-policies" rel="follow">Bessent: For a nominal amount, the US Treasury was able to signal support for Japanese policies</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/senate-leader-thune-i-am-open-to-considering-an-export-ban-on-diesel" rel="follow">Senate leader Thune: I am open to considering an export ban on diesel</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/oil-jumps-after-libya-says-may-declare-force-majure-as-protests-suspend-production" rel="follow">Oil jumps after Libya says may declare force majure as protests suspend production</a></li><li><a href="/news/carney-canada-to-allow-immediate-expensing-for-most-new-capital-investment" rel="follow">Carney: Canada to allow immediate expensing for most new capital investment</a></li><li><a href="/news/canada-wholesale-trade-for-the-month-of-july-0-3-versus-0-5-estimate" rel="follow">Canada wholesale trade for the month of July 0.3% versus -0.5% estimate</a></li><li><a href="/news/september-us-empire-fed-manufacturing-7-6-vs-15-0-expected" rel="follow">September US Empire Fed manufacturing +7.6 vs +15.0 expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-adp-weekly-employment-estimate-rises-to-16-250-vs-12-000-expected" rel="follow">US ADP weekly employment estimate rises to 16,250 vs 12,000 expected</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>WTI crude oil up $4.56 to $105.99</li><li>Gold down $2 to $4295</li><li>US 10-year yields up 4.7 bps to 5.01%</li><li>S&amp;P 500 down 0.4%</li><li>USD leads, JPY lags</li><li>Bitcoin down 3.9%</li></ul><p>Oil rose for the 11th day in the past 12 and unsurprisingly, it pushed up yields and weighed on risk assets. The market has now moved to price in a 92% chance of a hike tomorrow from the Federal Reserve and has fully priced in another cut before year end. The question now for Warsh is how hawkish will he sounds. Pushing up the front end may help him establish credibility on the long end but he also likes strategic ambiguity and that could ultimately read as dovish. In any case, he will find himself in a tricky position on Wednesday afternoon in Washington.</p><p>In terms of oil, it was sliding early in New York trading but then Libya announced field closures due to protests. That was quickly followed by Saudi Arabia suspending loadings at its lone Red Sea port in light of the pipeline attacks. There are some rumors in the market that Saudis told customers not to expect oil until November. In terms of moves towards peace, there was nothing credible but oil did come slightly off the highs in the afternoon but late reports of explosions in Saudi Arabia and airport closures lifted prices again.</p><p>The dollar was generally bid and Bessent's comments on the yen suggest limited ammunition to intervene further. The Fed is obviously a big consideration in the dollar trade as well.&nbsp;</p><p>Tomorrow's decision hits at a vulnerable time for AI with calls for a slowdown. At the same time, we've seen some remarkable resilience in stock markets this year even as we went from pricing in Fed cuts to 97 bps of hikes in the year ahead. That's the state of play going into the big decision.</p><p>Late in the day the crypto-regulating CLARITY Act failed in the Senate and that led to a slump in bitcoin and altcoins.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>The Canadain dollar is down for the fifth consecutive day as USD rises across the board on an expected Fed rate hike.</p><p>Below the surface, Prime Minister Mark Carney is trying to lay the groundwork for an investment boom. He's hosting an investment summit in Canada this week and that's included a series of announcements on spending, including one on a data centre yesterday.</p><p>Today's announcement is a nice carrot for companies thinking of putting money to work and mirrors what the Trump administration did in the Big, Beautiful Bill. Allowing immediate expensing on a longer-term investment gets the deductions back into corporate coffers more quickly, compounding on the time value of money. That said, Canada put in immediate expensing for machinery in 2018 and last year added building materials and clean energy equipment. There is also some accelerated depreciation that's allowed.&nbsp;</p><p>So the actual impacts here are going to depend on company specifics but it's strong signaling. The government estimates it will cost C$36 billion over five years so that's the number that's getting shifted to the corporate side.</p><p>The bigger problem facing Canada and much of the world is inflation in light of the war in Iran. The market is pricing in five BOC rate hikes through 2027 and that's going to be a big headwind for a struggling housing sector and corporate borrowing.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p dir="auto" class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">Canada’s July wholesale trade:</p><ul><li>Wholesale sales MoM: +0.3% vs -0.5% expected. Prior +2.8%</li><li>Wholesale sales YoY: +7.9%</li><li>Wholesale sales volumes MoM: -0.6%</li><li>Wholesale inventories: Essentially unchanged at C$140.6 billion</li><li>Inventory-to-sales ratio: 1.51 vs 1.52 in June</li></ul><p></p><p dir="auto">Canadian wholesale sales increased 0.3% to C$93.1 billion in July, according to <a class="decorated-link" href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260915/dq260915b-eng.htm" rel="follow">Statistics Canada</a>. That was stronger than the 0.5% decline expected, although growth slowed sharply from June’s 2.8% increase.</p><p dir="auto">Sales increased in three of seven subsectors. Building materials and supplies led the gains, rising 3.5%, helped by a 10.3% increase at metal service centres. Food, beverage and tobacco sales increased 1.7%.</p><p dir="auto">The details were more mixed than the headline. When adjusted for price changes, wholesale sales volumes declined 0.6%. That suggests higher prices—including steel prices—accounted for at least part of the increase in the dollar value of sales.</p><p dir="auto">Quick analysis: The headline was stronger than expected and may provide modest support for the Canadian dollar, which would normally pressure USDCAD lower. However, the decline in sales volumes softens the result and suggests underlying demand was not as strong as the headline implies. On balance, this report alone is unlikely to materially change expectations for the Bank of Canada.</p><p dir="auto">What this report measures: Wholesale sales track the value of goods sold by Canadian wholesalers to retailers, businesses and other customers. Traders monitor the monthly report for clues about business demand, inventories and future economic activity. The volume measure adjusts for price changes, making it useful for determining whether businesses sold more goods or simply collected more because prices increased.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was +20.6</li><li>New orders +2.0 vs +17.3 prior</li><li>Prices paid +63.1 vs +58.6 prior</li><li>Employment +10.6 vs +9.3 prior</li><li>Six monthis index +29.0 vs +32.1 prior</li></ul><p>This report isn't a big market mover but it lands on the morning of the first day of the Fed meeting so it will be notable, particularly for the doves. There has been so much of this back-and-forth with economic data that it's easy to imagine either side digging in. The market is now 91% priced for a rate hike so it would be an incredible surprise if they went the other way but holdout doves just got a bit of ammunition.</p><p>For the hawks, prices paid rose again and are back near the highest levels since 2022.</p><p></p><p>“On the heels of strong growth in August, New York State manufacturing activity continued to pick up modestly in September. Employment grew at a solid pace, while pricing pressures intensified," said Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed in the release.</p><p>General Business conditions:</p><p></p><p></p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p dir="auto" class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer"></p><p dir="auto" class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">U.S. ADP NER Pulse for the four weeks ending August 29:</p><ul><li>Weekly private employment change: +16,250 vs +12,000 expected. Prior +12,250</li><li>Four-week moving average, seasonally adjusted</li></ul><p dir="auto">U.S. private employers added an average of 16,250 jobs per week during the four weeks ending August 29, according to <a class="decorated-link cursor-pointer" href="https://www.adpresearch.com/" rel="follow">ADP Research</a>.</p><p dir="auto">The result was stronger than the 12,000 estimate and increased from 12,250 previously. ADP said hiring increased for the second consecutive week, although the preliminary figures may change as additional data becomes available.</p><p dir="auto">Quick analysis: The report points to some improvement in private-sector hiring after relatively subdued gains during the preceding weeks. That is modestly supportive for the USD and Treasury yields, but the NER Pulse is still a preliminary four-week moving average—not a replacement for the monthly ADP report or the government’s nonfarm payroll data. With the Federal Reserve decision tomorrow, its immediate market influence may be limited.</p><p dir="auto">The ADP Weekly NER Pulse is a high-frequency estimate of changes in U.S. private-sector employment. “NER” stands for National Employment Report.</p><p dir="auto">It measures:</p><ul><li> The estimated week-to-week change in private payroll employment</li><li> Reported as a four-week moving average</li><li>Seasonally adjusted</li><li> Published with a two-week lag so ADP can collect more complete payroll information </li><li> Released most Tuesdays at 8:15 a.m. ET</li></ul><p dir="auto">It differs from the monthly ADP employment report. The weekly Pulse is designed to provide a timelier view of the direction of hiring, but it is preliminary and subject to revision as additional data arrives.</p><p dir="auto">For example, a reading of +16,250 means private employers added an estimated average of 16,250 jobs per week over the latest four-week period. It does not mean 16,250 jobs were added during the entire month.</p><p dir="auto">For traders, it offers an early indication of labor-market momentum. A stronger-than-expected reading can normally support the USD and Treasury yields, while a weaker reading can pressure them. However, it is generally less market-moving than monthly ADP employment or the government’s nonfarm payroll report. </p><p></p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="/forex/usd-inr-erases-all-rbi-intervention-gains-as-surging-oil-prices-weigh-on-the-indian-rupee" rel="follow">USD/INR erases all RBI intervention gains as surging oil prices weigh on the Indian Rupee</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/oil-remains-supported-as-supply-risks-intensify-and-diplomatic-progress-stalls" rel="follow">Oil remains supported as supply risks intensify and diplomatic progress stalls</a></li><li><a href="/education/bill-lipschutz-s-scale-trading-strategy-why-smart-traders-don-t-go-all-in-at-once" rel="follow">Bill Lipschutz's scale trading strategy: Why smart traders don't go all in at once</a></li><li><a href="/education/managing-currency-exposure-with-oanda-s-forex-trading-platform" rel="follow">Managing Currency Exposure With OANDA’s Forex Trading Platform</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/zcash-outperformed-most-cryptocurrencies-following-etf-launch-now-focus-shifts-to-clarity-act-and-fomc" rel="follow">Zcash outperformed most cryptocurrencies following ETF launch, now focus shifts to Clarity Act and FOMC</a></li><li><a href="/news/german-investor-morale-continues-to-rise-in-september-but-less-than-expected-zew-survey" rel="follow">German investor morale continues to rise in September but less than expected - ZEW survey</a></li><li><a href="/forex/usd-jpy-breaks-above-155-as-treasury-yields-hit-highest-since-2007" rel="follow">USD/JPY breaks above 155 as Treasury yields hit highest since 2007</a></li><li><a href="/forex/eur-usd-falls-below-the-key-1-1560-support-ahead-of-the-fomc-decision-what-s-next" rel="follow">EUR/USD falls below the key 1.1560 support ahead of the FOMC decision. What's next?</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/european-stocks-fall-at-the-open-as-oil-surge-and-higher-bond-yields-hit-sentiment" rel="follow">European stocks fall at the open as oil surge and higher bond yields hit sentiment</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/ethereum-gets-jittery-ahead-of-clarity-act-vote-and-fed-decision-what-to-watch-next" rel="follow">Ethereum gets jittery ahead of CLARITY Act vote and Fed decision. What to watch next?</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/what-if-higher-interest-rates-aren-t-actually-bad-for-crypto" rel="follow">What if higher interest rates aren't actually bad for crypto?</a></li><li><a href="/news/uk-labour-market-cools-further-as-payrolls-fall-and-wage-growth-slows" rel="follow">UK labour market cools further as payrolls fall and wage growth slows</a></li><li><a href="/news/what-are-the-main-events-for-today-42" rel="follow">What are the main events for today?</a></li><li><a href="/education/tmgm-strengthens-support-for-para-sport-development-in-vanuatu" rel="follow">TMGM Strengthens Support for Para Sport Development in Vanuatu</a></li><li><a href="/orders/fx-option-expiries-for-15-september-10am-new-york-cut" rel="follow">FX option expiries for 15 September 10am New York cut</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/wti-crude-oil-forecast-103-40-resistance-tests-recovery" rel="follow">WTI Crude Oil Forecast: $103.40 Resistance Tests Recovery</a></li><li><a href="/education/skynet-delayed" rel="follow">Skynet delayed?</a></li><li><a href="/news/10-year-treasury-yields-hit-5-02-as-bond-market-sends-a-warning-ahead-of-the-fed" rel="follow">10-year Treasury yields hit 5.02% as bond market sends a warning ahead of the Fed</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/pentagon-confirms-iran-war-munitions-shortage-trump-had-denied" rel="follow">Pentagon confirms Iran war munitions shortage Trump had denied</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">WTI crude oil up +1.45% to $102.86</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Gold down -0.40% to $4281</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">EUR/USD down -0.11% to 1.1534</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">USD/JPY up +0.33% to 154.82</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">S&amp;P 500 down -0.21% to 7609.00</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Bitcoin up -1.41% to $77,063</li></ul><p>It's been a pretty quiet session with limited newsflow and economic data releases. In terms of economic data, the highlight of the session was the UK employment report. The UK labour market showed further signs of cooling, with payrolls falling again and wage growth slowing. The data reinforces the picture of gradually weakening labour conditions. The data therefore offered some dovish signals, but not enough to materially change the BoE's inflation focused stance. </p><p>We also had the German ZEW survey. Investor sentiment continued to improve in September, but the increase was smaller than expected, potentially pointing to waning momentum amid the ECB rate hikes and surging oil prices.</p><p>In the markets, the biggest moves were seen in the cryptocurrencies space ahead of the cloture vote on the Clarity Act today at 2:15pm ET.&nbsp;A failed vote could close the legislative window for crypto market structure this year, given the November midterms. This outcome would likely be negative for cryptocurrencies in general in the short-term. But even a successful vote may not be positive. With the FOMC decision coming tomorrow, I’m afraid we could see a “sell the fact" reaction as traders shift their attention from the Clarity Act back to monetary policy and the negative macro picture.</p><p>In other markets, the price action has been mostly rangebound ahead of tomorrow's FOMC decision as hawkish surprises could lead to risk-off flows. In the near-term, oil prices continue to drive pretty much all markets. The Iran war and Fed rate hikes remain the two main stories to focus on.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Germany September ZEW survey current conditions -47.1 vs -52.1 expected</li><li>Prior -61.1</li><li>Germany September ZEW survey economic sentiment 34.7 vs 40.0 expected</li><li>Prior 34.2</li></ul><p>The breakdownThe uptick in the current conditions index is encouraging, as it is a beat on estimates. However, the economic sentiment indicator only showed a mild improvement compared to August.</p><p>ZEW notes that this suggests that experts are cautiously optimistic about the economic recovery but persistently high energy prices and uncertainty from geopolitical tensions are still placing a burden on the outlook.</p><p></p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">What does the data measure?The ZEW survey measures German financial-market experts’ views on the current economic situation and their expectations for the economy over the next six months.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Why does it matter to markets?It is a useful forward-looking confidence gauge for Germany, particularly because expectations can turn before hard economic data. The gap between sentiment and current conditions also gives traders a sense of whether investors see an eventual recovery despite present weakness.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">How does it fit the current landscape?Germany’s backdrop remains mixed. Investor expectations have been recovering, helped by stronger exports and government infrastructure programmes, but actual economic momentum showed signs of slowing entering Q3 as high energy costs weighed on industry and consumption.&nbsp;In August, expectations had risen to 34.2, while the current-conditions index improved sharply to -61.1.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">What is the potential market impact?A stronger-than-expected reading would generally be euro-positive and mildly negative for bunds, as it reinforces confidence in Germany’s recovery outlook; vice versa.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Current relevance to markets?Minimal.&nbsp;The ZEW survey can influence the euro and bund yields at the margin, but it is unlikely on its own to materially shift ECB expectations unless the result reinforces a broader run of stronger or weaker German data. And for the time being, the bigger and broader macro focus for the ECB and euro markets is on inflation.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The key details:</p><ul><li>July ILO unemployment rate 4.9% vs 5.0% expected</li><li>Prior 4.9%</li><li>July employment change 67k vs 67k expected</li><li>Prior 83k</li><li>July average weekly earnings +3.9% vs +3.9% 3m/y expected</li><li>Prior +4.1%; revised to +4.2%</li><li>July average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.5% vs +3.5% 3m/y expected</li><li>Prior +3.5%</li><li>August payrolls change -26k</li><li>Prior -13k; revised to -19k</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The UK labour market continues to show signs of cooling, although there isn't anything here that dramatically changes the picture for the BOE ahead of their Thursday decision.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The jobless rate remains unchanged from the previous quarter while the employment rate also held broadly steady at 75.1%.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">But perhaps the more timely payrolls number&nbsp;has a bit more to offer.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">According to the preliminary estimate, payrolled employment fell by 26,000 in August with the total now sitting at&nbsp;30.2 million.&nbsp;Compared with a year ago, payrolls are down by 145,000.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">ONS is highlighting that&nbsp;the number of payrolled employees has generally been declining over the past two years. So, this is mainly continuing the broader trend.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Besides that, wages are also cooling as well with total earnings growth slowing to 3.9% in the three months to July - the softest reading since late 2020.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Putting all of that together, it points to a labour market that is gradually losing heat.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Normally, softer hiring and moderating wage pressures would be welcome news for the BOE. However, the problem for the central bank right now is that the inflation story has shifted elsewhere.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Higher oil and energy prices have pushed inflation risks back up the agenda, with markets increasingly pricing further BOE tightening despite signs of weaker labour demand. But for this week, markets are widely expecting the BOE to keep the bank rate unchanged at 3.75% but pressure is building for another rate hike later this year.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, the main highlight was the UK employment report. The data was basically in-line with expectations across the board and didn't change much in terms of BoE interest rate expectations. As a reminder, the market is pricing in 50 bps of tightening by year-end, with the first rate hike coming in November.&nbsp;</p><p>Looking ahead, we don't have much on the agenda other than a few low-tier releases like French and Spanish final CPI data, the Italian and Eurozone trade balance and the German ZEW. None of the data is going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will likely be muted.&nbsp;</p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, the only highlight is the Clarity Act cloture vote at 18:15 GMT/14:15 ET. This is a crypto-specific event.&nbsp;The CLARITY Act is designed to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the US. Among its key objectives is drawing a clearer line between the jurisdictions of the SEC and CFTC. The legislation also aims to establish regulatory requirements for crypto exchanges, brokers and dealers.&nbsp;</p><p>The potential benefit for the broader crypto market is regulatory certainty which could ultimately&nbsp;support greater institutional participation, deeper liquidity and more capital flowing into digital assets.&nbsp;Cloture requires 60 votes just to open debate on the legislation.&nbsp;If the vote fails, it could effectively close the legislative window for crypto market structure this year, given the November midterms, and that could trigger a selloff in Bitcoin. Even if the vote is successful, I’m afraid we could see a “sell the fact” reaction, with Bitcoin falling as the focus will quickly turn to the FOMC decision tomorrow.</p><p>CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS</p><ul><li>14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.