<p> That's a very good retail sales result, well ahead of expected and April. Retail sales is an indication to household consumption. </p><ul><li>at 6.4% y/y it's the fastest since December 2023</li></ul><p>Industrial production was a slight miss, and the slowest growth since November 2024.</p><p>More:</p><ul><li>China end-May surveyed unemployment rate 5.0% vs. 5.1% expected, 5.1% prior</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>A large-scale military airlift seems to be in progress, with an unusually high number of U.S. Air Force KC-135 and KC-46 aerial refueling tankers departing from bases across the U.S. and apparently preparing to head across the Atlantic toward Europe:</p><ul><li>17* KC-135 tankers, so far</li><li> 4* KC-46 tankers, so far</li></ul><p>More are preparing for take off.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>All China may new home prices -3.5% y/y (April -4.0%)</p><ul><li>All China may new home prices -0.2% m/m (April 0%) – Reuters calculation</li></ul><p>No sign of an end on sight for the China property malaise as yet in this data.</p><p>Last last week Guangzhou introduced new policies to boost housing market, including</p><ul><li>fully cancels restrictions on property purchases, resale and prices </li></ul><p>-</p><p>There is more data due from China at the top of the hour, mixed results expected:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/economic-calendar-in-asia-monday-june-16-2025-a-light-one-20250615/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Economic calendar in Asia Monday, June 16, 2025 - China data</a></li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Iran's most recent wave of missiles fired at Israel:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/israel-has-detected-another-wave-of-ballistic-missiles-launched-from-iran-20250616/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Israel has detected another wave of ballistic missiles launched from Iran</a></li></ul><p>reported by Israeli media as the heaviest barrage since war began.</p><ul><li>Multiple impacts in Tel Aviv and Haifa</li><li>Haifa’s power plant is on fire after being struck</li><li>Missile strike on the Haifa power plant has triggered a power outage across central Israel</li><li>Israeli Army Radio reports that at least 10 of the Iranian missiles were not intercepted during the strikes on Tel Aviv and Haifa</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Ballistic missiles launched from Iran towards Israel. Impacts expected in the next few minutes:</p><ul><li>Multiple launches from Isfahan and other areas in Iran</li><li>Early warnings given for the entire country of Israel </li><li>Red alerts in Northern and Southern Israel</li><li>Israeli army says air defense systems are working to intercept missiles</li><li>There have been interceptions around Haifa</li><li>Interceptions seen over Northern Israel</li><li>Multiple impacts have been reported in the Tel Aviv area</li></ul><p>more to come</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (<a href="https://www.nzier.org.nz/publications/nzier-consensus-forecasts-suggest-a-gradual-recovery-in-the-new-zealand-economy-over-the-coming-year" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">NZIER</a>) survey of economists, the latest Consensus Forecasts.</p><p>Some of the key items from the report, very briefly summarised::</p><ul><li>annual average growth in GDP is forecast to contract by 1.1 percent in the year to March 2025</li><li>picking up to 1.9 percent in the following year</li><li>lower interest rates are expected to support a pick-up in growth</li><li>soft labour market is driving continued caution amongst households</li><li>many households will face further relief in the form of reduced mortgage repayments. This is expected to support a continued recovery in discretionary spending over the coming years. </li><li>inflation is expected to become anchored around the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) inflation target mid-point of 2 percent over the coming years</li></ul><p>NZIER NZ dollar outlook:</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Trump spoke in the Israel-Iran conflict on Sunday morning US time, ABC News:</p><ul><li>“We’re not involved in it. It’s possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved”</li></ul><p>Later in the day he added:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-says-us-will-continue-to-support-israel-20250615/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Trump says US will continue to support Israel</a></li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>South Korean Finance Ministry:</p><ul><li>Closely monitoring financial markets</li><li>South Korea will provide financial and shipping support to exporters</li></ul><p>Trade war concerns weighing. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p data-start="155" data-end="378">New bank loans in China rose less than expected in May, totaling 620 billion yuan</p><ul><li data-start="153" data-end="378"><p data-start="155" data-end="378">missing forecasts of 850 billion despite recent rate cuts and a temporary U.S.-China trade truce</p></li><li data-start="153" data-end="378"><p data-start="155" data-end="378">This follows a nine-month low in April</p></li></ul><p data-start="381" data-end="470">Year-on-year loan growth slowed to a record low of 7.1%, down from 7.2% in April.</p><ul><li data-start="471" data-end="620"><p data-start="473" data-end="620">Household loans (mostly mortgages) grew slightly in May (+54bn) after a sharp contraction in April, but corporate loan demand weakened.</p></li><li data-start="621" data-end="732"><p data-start="623" data-end="732">Broad M2 money supply rose 7.9% y/y, also below expectations of 8.1%, and down from April’s 8.0%.</p></li><li data-start="733" data-end="852"><p data-start="735" data-end="852">Total social financing (TSF) growth remained steady at 8.7%, supported by increased government bond issuance.</p></li></ul><p data-start="855" data-end="1026">Analysts cited persistent deflation pressures and elevated real borrowing costs as key factors dampening private credit demand, despite modest central bank easing:</p><ul><li data-start="1027" data-end="1136"><p data-start="1029" data-end="1136">Reuters cite Capital Economics expecting further rate cuts of up to 40 basis points later this year to support growth.</p></li></ul><p>Earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/pboc-says-it-will-will-inject-cash-via-outright-reverse-repos-for-the-second-time-20250615/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">PBOC says it will will inject cash via outright reverse repos for the second time</a></li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>UK Rightmove House Prices for June 2025:</p><p>-0.3% m/m, compared with a typical 0.4% rise for the usual month of June</p><ul><li>prior +0.6%</li></ul><p>+0.8% y/y, smallest annual rise since August 2024</p><ul><li>prior +1.2%</li></ul><p>Rightmove commentary:</p><ul><li>"It appears that we're now seeing the decade-high level of homes for sale, and the recent stamp duty increases in England, have a delayed impact on new sellers' pricing" </li><li>more competitive pricing helping sales activity</li><li>number of agreed sales had risen to the highest in more than three years</li></ul><p>---</p><p>GBP update, little net change to begin the new week so far:</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI)</p><p>For May 2025, 44.0, lowest level of activity since June 2024</p><ul><li>prior 48.1</li><li>long-run average 53.0</li></ul><p>BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel (bolding is mine):</p><ul><li>“the fall in the PSI follows the sharp decline in the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) from 53.3 to 47.5. Together, they are consistent with the economy returning to recession. We’re a long way from forecasting this, but the data are a reminder of just how vulnerable the economy currently is”</li></ul><p>NZD/USD is not doing a real lot on the data release. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The yen is weakening further.</p><p>In the first hour of Israeli action again Iran on Friday the yen jumped higher but since then its been almost one-way traffic lower. </p><p>USD/JPY did track sideways ofr much of the US session Friday but its jumped out of that range now. Higher oil prices are not a bullish factor for yen, with Japan a substantial importer of energy. Higher US Treasury yields also weighing on it. </p><p>The Bank of Japan meet today and tomorrow and are expected to leave rates on hold. Eyes will be on JGB buying plans:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-officials-expect-the-benchmark-interest-rate-left-at-05-next-week-20250613/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true" class="article-link">BOJ officials expect the benchmark interest rate left at 0.5%</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-now-expected-to-keep-interest-rates-unchanged-through-to-year-end-survey-20250611/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true" class="article-link">BOJ now expected to keep interest rates unchanged through to year-end - survey</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-expected-to-hold-rates-slow-pace-of-bond-tapering-amid-market-strain-20250611/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true" class="article-link">BOJ expected to hold rates, slow pace of bond tapering amid market strain</a></li></ul><p>Earlier I reported on futures moves:</p><p>Much of the moves retracing now. ES, NQ more or less flat and oil have pulled back much of its gap higher open. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Trump talking to reporters as he left for the G7 summit in Canada:</p><ul><li>Says he hopes there will be a deal between Iran and Israel, but sometimes you have to fight it out </li><li>Says he does not want to say if he has asked Israel to pause strikes on Iran </li><li>Says US will continue to support Israel in its defense</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The latest news out of the Middle East sis that hostilities continue. Recent:</p><ul><li>IDF is currently striking surface-to-surface missile sites in central Iran</li><li> Israeli bombing of Revolutionary Guard camps in Qazvin</li><li>attack at Parchin, a significant military complex near Tehran</li><li>Iran. Yemen's Houthis continue to launch missiles into Israel </li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Iran has told mediators from Qatar and Oman that it won’t engage in negotiations while it is under attack, according to an official familiar with the talks. </p><ul><li>This stance applies to both ceasefire discussions with Israel and efforts to restart nuclear deal talks with the United States.</li><li> The official said Iran made it clear that it will only consider serious negotiations after it has completed its response to Israel’s recent pre-emptive strikes.</li></ul><p>Info comes via <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-iran-tells-qatar-oman-it-wont-negotiate-with-us-while-under-attack/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">The Times of Israel</a>.</p><p>The report is along the same lines as this I poste earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/al-jazeera-cite-iran-foreign-minister-will-prepare-the-ground-for-a-return-to-diplomacy-20250615/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Al Jazeera cite Iran Foreign Minister: "will prepare the ground for a return to diplomacy"</a></li></ul><p>Like I said earlier, I can't vouch for the veracity of these reports, just passing them along. Let's hope some sort of cessation of violence can happen soon. </p><p>From a market perspective, futures trade for the week will begin at 1800 US Eastern time (2300 GMT). </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>This is via Al Jazeera Arabic, I used Google to translate the tweet:</p><ul><li>Iranian Foreign Minister: We will prepare the ground for a return to diplomacy and negotiations if the Israeli aggression stops.</li></ul><p>If this is true it's a step in the right direction towards ending the war. </p><p>I'm not vouching for its veracity, just passing it along and hoping. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>A US official has said once again the the country is not considering joining the war with Iran.</p><p>ABC news reported the comment. </p><p>Despite this the US is taking steps, perhaps in an abundance of caution. The USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group appear to be on a course towards the Middle East. If so, that'd be three US Navy aircraft carriers off the coast of Iran (USS Carl Vinson and USS Nimitz are already there) along with one from the UK's Royal Navy (HMS Prince of Wales).</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The Bank of Japan begins its two-day monetary policy meeting today, tune in tomorrow for the results from this:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-officials-expect-the-benchmark-interest-rate-left-at-05-next-week-20250613/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">BOJ officials expect the benchmark interest rate left at 0.5%</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-now-expected-to-keep-interest-rates-unchanged-through-to-year-end-survey-20250611/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">BOJ now expected to keep interest rates unchanged through to year-end - survey</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boj-expected-to-hold-rates-slow-pace-of-bond-tapering-amid-market-strain-20250611/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">BOJ expected to hold rates, slow pace of bond tapering amid market strain</a></li></ul><p>As for today, it's a light calendar apart from the data from China. Retail sales and investment are epxtected just slightly down whiel a boost from industrial output is expected.</p><p>Eyes on the headlines with special attention on the Middle East:</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week. Indicative rates, a little change from late Friday, a little strength for the USD and JPY. </p><p>Given all the Middle East fighting over the weekend, not too much change from late Friday</p><ul><li>EUR/USD 1.1532</li><li>USD/JPY 143.90</li><li>GBP/USD 1.3559</li><li>USD/CHF 0.8116</li><li>USD/CAD 1.3591</li><li>AUD/USD 0.6483</li><li>NZD/USD 0.6010</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-pm-in-call-with-trump-reiterated-japans-use-on-us-tariffs-20250613/">Japan PM in call with Trump, reiterated Japan's use on US tariffs</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-sp-nasdaq-and-dow-have-worst-day-since-may-21-20250613/">The S&amp;P, NASDAQ and Dow have worst day since May 21</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/central-bank-meetings-will-dominate-the-economic-calendar-next-week-20250613/">Central bank meetings will dominate the economic calendar next week</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/israel-warns-that-iran-will-pay-a-heavy-price-for-its-missile-attack-on-populated-areas-20250613/">Israel warns that Iran will pay a heavy price for its missile attack on populated areas</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/crude-oil-futures-settle-at-7298-20250613/">Crude oil futures settle at $72.98</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/israel-military-identify-missiles-launched-from-iran-20250613/">Israel military: Identify missiles launched from Iran. Iran's response has begun</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/israel-army-we-destroyed-a-iranian-facility-for-producing-uranium-20250613/">Israel Army: We destroyed a Iranian facility for producing uranium</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/kremlin-putin-tells-netanyahu-that-nuclear-issues-must-be-solved-through-diplomacy-20250613/">Kremlin. Putin tells Netanyahu that nuclear issues must be solved through diplomacy</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/irans-khamenei-iranian-armed-forces-will-leave-israel-hopeless-20250613/">Iran's Khamenei: Iranian Armed Forces will leave Israel hopeless</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/iran-will-not-participate-in-nuclear-talks-on-sunday-with-the-us-20250613/">Iran will not participate in nuclear talks on Sunday with the US</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-oil-rig-count-3-at-439-20250613/">Baker Hughes oil rig count -3 at 439</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/major-european-indices-close-lower-for-the-day-as-a-geopolitical-risks-weigh-on-sentiment-20250613/">Major European indices close lower for the day as a geopolitical risks weigh on sentiment</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/new-york-times-israel-has-resumed-attacks-on-iran-20250613/">New York Times: Israel has resumed attacks on Iran</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/netanyahu-us-knew-of-the-attack-ahead-of-time-20250613/">Netanyahu: US knew of the attack ahead of time</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/university-of-michigan-consumer-sentiment-preliminary-for-june-605-vs-535-estimate-20250613/">University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary for June 60.5 vs 53.5 estimate</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/iran-tells-un-security-council-they-will-respond-decisivelyproportionally-20250613/">Iran tells UN Security Council they will respond decisively/proportionally</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-wholesale-trade-for-april-23-versus-09-estimate-20250613/">Canada wholesale trade for April - 2.3% versus -0.9% estimate</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-manufacturing-sales-for-april-by-28-versus-20-expected-20250613/">Canada manufacturing sales for April by -2.8% versus -2.0% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-q1-capacity-utilization-rate-801-vs-798-expected-20250613/">Canada Q1 capacity utilization rate 80.1% vs 79.8% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-usd-has-moved-higher-after-israels-strike-on-iran-nuclear-facilities-what-next-20250613/">The USD has moved higher after Israel's strike on Iran nuclear facilities. What next?</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-european-fx-news-wrap-dollar-gains-as-israel-and-iran-tensions-run-high-20250613/">ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar gains as Israel and Iran tensions run high</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-iran-has-perhaps-a-second-chance-20250613/">Trump: Iran has perhaps a second chance</a></li></ul><p data-start="0" data-end="248">The U.S. dollar moved higher overnight (and coming into the US session), driven by classic flight-to-safety flows following Israel's strike on Iran. However, U.S. yields did not follow the usual script—instead of falling amid geopolitical stress, they moved higher.</p><p data-start="250" data-end="707">This divergence from the typical Pavlovian response raises questions. It may reflect rising oil prices and the renewed threat of inflation, which can put upward pressure on yields. Alternatively, it could be a technical retracement, with yields rebounding after recently dipping below key benchmarks—4% for the 2-year, 4.5% for the 10-year, and 5% for the 30-year—that had served as rough markers for the yield curve in recent weeks.</p><p data-start="709" data-end="996" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Or perhaps it’s something broader: investor fatigue with the constant swings in policy tone from the Trump administration and escalating global tensions. Whatever the reason, markets are behaving less predictably—adding another layer of complexity for traders and policymakers alike.</p><p>Regardless of the reason, today yields moved higher.</p><p>Looking at the near-closing levels in the US debt market:</p><ul><li>2 year yield 3.952%, +4.6 basis points.</li><li>5-year yield 4.008%, +4.9 basis points</li><li>10 year yield 4.408%, +5.2 basis points.</li><li>30 year yield 4.901%, +5.9 basis points</li></ul><p data-start="0" data-end="266">The U.S. dollar initially rose on the back of flight-to-safety flows, but those gains began to fade as the day progressed. While the greenback is still closing higher against all major currency pairs, it has pulled back significantly from its intraday highs.</p><p data-start="268" data-end="437" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Despite the late-day retracement, a look at end-of-day levels shows the dollar posted gains across the board, finishing stronger versus each of the major currencies.</p><ul><li>EUR 0.38%</li><li>GBP 0.39%</li><li>JPY +0.39%</li><li>CHF +0.15%</li><li>CAD +0.06%</li><li>AUD +0.72%</li><li>NZD +0.96%</li></ul><p>For the trading week, although the USD was higher for the day, it was lower for the week:</p><ul><li>EUR -1.79%</li><li>GBP -0.26%</li><li>JPY -0.53%</li><li>CHF -1.26%</li><li>CAD -0.70%</li><li>AUD unchanged</li><li>NZD -0.06%</li></ul><p>US stocks fell in trading today and that helped to push the major indices negative for the week:</p><ul><li>Dow -1.79% for the day and -1.32% for the week</li><li>S&amp;P -1.13% for the day and -0.39% for the week.</li><li>NASDAQ index -1.30% for the day and -0.63% of Week.</li></ul><p data-start="0" data-end="295">Looking ahead, geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran are expected to keep markets on edge, fueling ongoing uncertainty. At the same time, a packed central bank calendar will shape the direction of global monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve taking center stage on Wednesday.</p><p data-start="297" data-end="717">While the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, the market’s attention will be firmly on the policy statement, economic projections, and the dot plot outlining future rate expectations. This comes on the heels of cooler-than-expected inflation data, which has eased some pressure. However, the potential inflationary impact of tariffs remains a concern, as does the risk of softening labor markets.</p><p data-start="719" data-end="1107">Other key central banks will also be in the spotlight. The Bank of Japan will announce its decision on Tuesday—no change is expected as policymakers remain firmly dovish. On Thursday, the Bank of England is also expected to hold rates steady, while the Swiss National Bank is anticipated to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut, potentially lowering its policy rate to 0.00%.</p><p data-start="1109" data-end="1348" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Beyond central banks, the economic calendar is also active, featuring U.S. retail sales, Australian employment figures, and the latest reading on UK GDP—all of which could provide further insight into the global growth outlook.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Japan's foreign minister says:</p><ul><li>Japan PM in call with Trump reiterated Japan's view on the US tariff measures</li><li>Concluded to accelerate consultations between the ministers in charge to achieve mutual beneficial agreement.</li><li>Exchange views on response to Israel's recent attacks against Iran</li></ul><p>Trump wants to increase tariffs on autos and other imports from Japan. Trump's administration also wants Japan to open up their economy for more imported US goods. One problem is Japan is a nation of savers, while the US loves to spend and that makes the dynamics more difficult. </p><p>The U.S. is currently imposing tariffs on imported automobiles:</p><ul data-start="39" data-end="279"><li data-start="39" data-end="119"><p data-start="41" data-end="119">A 25% ad valorem tariff on fully assembled foreign automobiles has been in effect since April 3, 2025, under a Section 232 national security order </p></li><li data-start="39" data-end="119"><p data-start="41" data-end="119">A corresponding 25% tariff on auto parts (such as engines and transmissions) took effect on May 3, 2025, with USMCA-compliant components temporarily exempted</p></li><li data-start="201" data-end="279"><p data-start="203" data-end="279">President Trump has signaled the possibility of increasing the 25% auto tariffs to further incentivize U.S.-based manufacturing and investment</p></li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The S&amp;P, Nasdaq and Dow had their worst day since May 21 as geopolitical risk from Israel's strike on Iran, and Iran's counterstrike on Isreal gave traders a reason to sell.</p><p>At the close, the major indices are all down by -1.13% or more. A look at the final numbers shows:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average fell -769.83 points or -1.79% at 42197.79. The price is closing below its 200-day moving average at 42502.38, and its 100-day moving average at 42233.09.</li><li>S&amp;P index fell -68.29 points or -1.13% at 5976.97. The S&amp;P tested but held support against its 100-hour moving average at 5964.44. The low price today reached 5963.21, just below that level but bounced modestly into the close.</li><li>NASDAQ index-255.66 or -1.30% at 19406.83. Like the S&amp;P, the index tested its rising 100-hour moving average at 19390.24. The low price extended to 19367.42 but closed above that moving average level.</li></ul><p>For the trading week, the major indices are closing lower with today's the declines:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average fell -1.32%</li><li>S&amp;P index fell -0.39%</li><li>Nasdaq index fell -0.63%</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p data-start="0" data-end="467">Next week will be a pivotal one for global monetary policy, with key central banks scheduled to announce their latest decisions. The Bank of Japan (Tuesday), Federal Reserve (Wednesday), Swiss National Bank (Thursday), and Bank of England (Thursday) will all hold policy meetings. While the BOJ, Fed, and BOE are widely expected to keep rates unchanged, the Swiss National Bank is projected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 0.0%.</p><p data-start="469" data-end="964">The main spotlight will fall on the Federal Reserve, not only for its rate decision but also for its updated economic projections and the release of its closely watched dot plot, which outlines expectations for future rate moves. President Trump has continued to push for a 100 basis point rate cut, but Fed officials, prior to the pre-meeting blackout period, signaled no urgency to move, citing ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and their unknown impact on inflation, employment and economic growth.</p><p data-start="966" data-end="1562" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">The backdrop for the Fed is increasingly complex. Oil prices are rising, and the Iran-Israel conflict is becoming more intense, amplifying geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, U.S. economic growth remains positive. This environment likely keeps the Fed on hold—for now. However, if there is a surprise, the recent softer CPI and PPI readings may offer a window for a surprise modest rate cut, particularly as other central banks globally have started easing (a cut is in reaction to global spreads?). In contrast, the Bank of Japan appears firmly anchored in its long-standing ultra-loose stance, with little indication of rate hikes on the horizon.</p><p data-start="966" data-end="1562" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Other key events include: </p><ul><li>US retail sales (Tuesday)</li><li>Australian employment Wednesday/Thursday in Australia.</li><li>UK retail sales on Friday</li></ul><p>Geopolitical risk will also take center stage. </p><p>With global conflict, you wonder if there will be another week of no tariffs resolution that they Trump administration has been touting since the Saudi Arabia roadshow. Apart from a redo of the China deal, there has been little in the way of progress with other nations.</p><p data-start="132" data-end="155">Monday, June 16</p><ul data-start="156" data-end="344"><li data-start="156" data-end="239"><p data-start="158" data-end="239">Time: Tentative – BOJ Policy Rate | Forecast: &lt;0.50% | Previous: &lt;0.50%</p></li><li data-start="240" data-end="295"><p data-start="242" data-end="295">Time: Tentative – Monetary Policy Statement</p></li><li data-start="296" data-end="344"><p data-start="298" data-end="344">Time: Tentative – BOJ Press Conference</p></li></ul><p data-start="351" data-end="375">Tuesday, June 17</p><ul data-start="376" data-end="537"><li data-start="376" data-end="458"><p data-start="378" data-end="458">8:30am (USD) – Core Retail Sales m/m | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%</p></li><li data-start="459" data-end="537"><p data-start="461" data-end="537">8:30am (USD) – Retail Sales m/m | Forecast: -0.6% | Previous: 0.1%</p></li></ul><p data-start="544" data-end="570">Wednesday, June 18</p><ul data-start="571" data-end="1224"><li data-start="571" data-end="639"><p data-start="573" data-end="639">2:00am (GBP) – CPI y/y | Forecast: 3.3% | Previous: 3.5%</p></li><li data-start="640" data-end="720"><p data-start="642" data-end="720">8:30am (USD) – Unemployment Claims | Forecast: 248K | Previous: 242K</p></li><li data-start="721" data-end="771"><p data-start="723" data-end="771">11:15am (CAD) – BOC Gov Macklem Speaks</p></li><li data-start="772" data-end="853"><p data-start="774" data-end="853">2:00pm (USD) – Federal Funds Rate | Forecast: 4.50% | Previous: 4.50%</p></li><li data-start="854" data-end="906"><p data-start="856" data-end="906">2:00pm (USD) – FOMC Economic Projections</p></li><li data-start="907" data-end="948"><p data-start="909" data-end="948">2:00pm (USD) – FOMC Statement</p></li><li data-start="949" data-end="997"><p data-start="951" data-end="997">2:30pm (USD) – FOMC Press Conference</p></li><li data-start="998" data-end="1066"><p data-start="1000" data-end="1066">6:45pm (NZD) – GDP q/q | Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: 0.7%</p></li><li data-start="1067" data-end="1147"><p data-start="1069" data-end="1147">9:30pm (AUD) – Employment Change | Forecast: 19.9K | Previous: 89.0K</p></li><li data-start="1148" data-end="1224"><p data-start="1150" data-end="1224">9:30pm (AUD) – Unemployment Rate | Forecast: 4.1% | Previous: 4.1%</p></li></ul><p data-start="1231" data-end="1256">Thursday, June 19</p><ul data-start="1257" data-end="1664"><li data-start="1257" data-end="1314"><p data-start="1259" data-end="1314">3:30am (CHF) – SNB Monetary Policy Assessment</p></li><li data-start="1315" data-end="1393"><p data-start="1317" data-end="1393">3:30am (CHF) – SNB Policy Rate | Forecast: 0.00% | Previous: 0.25%</p></li><li data-start="1394" data-end="1441"><p data-start="1396" data-end="1441">4:00am (CHF) – SNB Press Conference</p></li><li data-start="1442" data-end="1492"><p data-start="1444" data-end="1492">7:00am (GBP) – Monetary Policy Summary</p></li><li data-start="1493" data-end="1584"><p data-start="1495" data-end="1584">7:00am (GBP) – MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | Forecast: 0–2–7 | Previous: 0–1–8</p></li><li data-start="1585" data-end="1664"><p data-start="1587" data-end="1664">7:00am (GBP) – Official Bank Rate | Forecast: 4.25% | Previous: 4.25%</p></li></ul><p data-start="1671" data-end="1694">Friday, June 20</p><ul data-start="1695" data-end="1818"><li data-start="1695" data-end="1773"><p data-start="1697" data-end="1773">2:00am (GBP) – Retail Sales m/m | Forecast: -0.5% | Previous: 1.2%</p></li><li data-start="1774" data-end="1818"><p data-start="1776" data-end="1818">2:40am (JPY) – BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks</p></li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) Grossi is saying:</p><ul><li>Above ground plant where Iran was producing uranium enriched of up to 60% uranium has been destroyed</li><li>No indication of attack on underground enrichment halls at Natanz, but an attack on the power supplies may have damages centrifuges</li><li>There is radiological and chemical contamination inside facilites at Natanz</li><li>Iran says Esfahan nuclear site hit by Israel. </li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.