<ul><li><a href="/news/us-october-ppi-6-5-vs-6-6-expected" rel="follow">US October PPI +6.5% vs +6.6% expected</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-s-goolsbee-we-re-not-on-the-way-to-2-inflation-and-we-have-to-deal-with-that" rel="follow">Fed's Goolsbee: We're not on the way to 2% inflation and we have to deal with that</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/goldman-sachs-we-can-explain-almost-the-entire-us-inflation-overshoot-by-tariffs-and-the-war-in-iran" rel="follow">Goldman Sachs: We can explain almost the entire US inflation overshoot by tariffs and the war in Iran</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-s-collins-i-would-think-some-additional-policy-tightening-is-warranted-soon" rel="follow">Fed's Collins: I would think some additional policy tightening is warranted soon</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-s-daly-in-all-likelihood-we-need-to-raise-rates" rel="follow">Fed's Daly: In all likelihood, we need to raise rates</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>USD leads, AUD lags</li><li>WTI crude oil up 43-cents to $89.17</li><li>US 10-year yields up 3.8 bps to 5.14%</li><li>S&amp;P 500 down 0.4%, Nasdaq down 0.9%</li><li>Gold up $4 to $3880</li></ul><p>The PPI numbers were something of a respite to the drumbeat of inflation worries as the main numbers were 0.1 pp below estimates. That was generally balanced by non-stop Fed talk on inflation, with Goolsbee saying the recent CPI number was "borderline alarming" and others striking a similar tone. BofA was out with a note to change its Fed call to three consecutive hikes in Dec, Jan and March. All that helped to keep a bid in the dollar, which finisehd at hte best levels of the day. The euro continues to test the Liberation Day lows.</p><p>In equity markets, the closing levels don't tell the story as the selling was heavily concentrated in AI and chip names. AMD led the re-think with an 8% loss and pre-market gains for Nvidia reversed. The thinking is that the US is going to draw a hard line against China sales and remote use, curbing the market and -- ultimately -- allowing China to build its own chip companies. Outside of that, breadth was positive and there were some bright spots like Meta with a 2.8% gain. Next week&nbsp; features a heavy does of retail earnings so that will be a good check on the consumer.</p><p>Iran news was generally quiet but there was talk of a strike on US radar facilities in Bahrain. Iran claims it was hit, the US claims the drones were shot down. There was little or nothing on negotiations, so it appears we've reached a standstill and the oil market wasn't overly volatile.</p><p>Have a great weekend.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>The old addage is: Never underestimate the spending power of the US consumer.</p><p>That stance has been a remarkably good one for traders. Time after time, Americans have dug into their pockets and kept the economy churning.</p><p>But never say never.</p><p>San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly was just out with a comment, highlighting that she's "just starting to hear the consumer may be running out of gas."</p><p>Now that might not be a big red flag. In the Oct 14 Beige Book, the SF Fed reported: "Retail sales softened slightly.&nbsp;Contacts continued to describeeconomic conditions as bifurcated or K-shaped, with one contact observing that mounting financial pressures on lower-income families have spread to impact middle-income households."</p><p>Now the K-shape is nothing new and in that same Beige Book, over half of the districts said spending was driven by high-income households. Still, with the election swinging on affordability, gasoline prices staying high and inflation biting, now would be a time to see cracks.</p><p>In the week ahead, we will get earnings from Walmart, Target, Home Depot and others, so that will be the best check. We also get official Octobe retail sales, with economists seeing the closely-watched 'control group' up 0.4% m/m. This could be the week where Wall Street realizes that while it's been breathlessly watching AI and the Anthropic IPO, the foundations of the US economy have been eroding.</p><p>For those who don't want to wait a few more days, lets look at the early signs:</p><ol><li>Sept retail sales control group was +0.1% vs +0.3% expected</li><li>Sept personal income report showed the savings rate at 3.8%, the lowest since Oct 2022</li><li>Bank of America cardholder data showed&nbsp;spending per household up 5.8% y/y (nominally), down from 6.2%; lower-income households lead at 5.9%; trading down is at its highest since 2021</li><li>Redbook same-store sales up 10.4% y/y in the Oct 31 week</li><li>In the McDonald's Q3 report&nbsp;US comps fell 0.2%, the first decline since early 2025; fast-food traffic fell 2.6% industry-wide; the CFO wasn't forecasting a better Q4.&nbsp;Management did report encouraging underlying traffic trends in October</li><li>NY Fed expectations for Oct saw the expected chance of missing a debt payment hit 13.8%, the highest since December 2025; 45.3% see higher unemployment in a year, the most since April 2020</li><li>Citi luxury card data: luxury card purchases were down 6% y/y in September, following 4% declines in both July and August.</li><li>CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor on Nov 11: October retail spending gained 0.2% m/m and 3.6% y/y, with core up 0.3% on the month. That monthly gain was the weakest since November 2025, and CNBC’s own headline called it signs of strain</li></ol><p>I don't see any real signs of a cliff here but I will be watching this week's numbers at least as closely as Anthropic's IPO.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">Earnings season is supposed to be over. Instead, next week might be the most important of the quarter for the macro view.</p><p dir="ltr">Nvidia reports days after losing its founder. Anthropic prices what could be the largest equity deal ever. And every major US retailer reports into a rate-hike cycle. October CPI came in hot at 0.4% headline and 0.3% core, a December hike is fully priced with a 12% chance of 50 bps, 10-year yields sit at 5.13% and Brent is above $98.</p><p dir="ltr">The AI trade gets two tests in 48 hours: Nvidia’s guide on Tuesday and Anthropic’s pricing on Wednesday. Then the consumer gets its turn.</p><p dir="ltr">Here is the macro read, day by day.</p><p dir="ltr">Monday</p><p dir="ltr">A quiet start, with China doing the talking. XPeng, Baidu, H World and KE Holdings cover Chinese autos, ad spending, hotels and housing in one morning. KE is the one I’d watch. It is the cleanest real-time read on whether property transactions have found a floor.</p><p dir="ltr">Tyson Foods is the US name to watch. Protein prices are where households feel inflation after the gas pump. Listen for trade-down from beef to chicken and anything on restaurant demand.</p><p dir="ltr">Tuesday</p><p dir="ltr">The main event, twice over.</p><p dir="ltr">Home Depot reports before the open, with consensus at $3.86 on $42.72 billion in revenue. The numbers matter less than the commentary. Housing turnover was already frozen when the Fed was cutting and now mortgage rates are heading the wrong way. The question for Ted Decker is whether big-ticket projects are getting pushed out again and what pros are saying about backlogs.</p><p dir="ltr">Retail sales hit at 8:30 am ET, so you get the company view and the government view within the same hour.</p><p dir="ltr">Klarna is an underrated macro report. Buy-now-pay-later delinquencies are an early warning on the low-end consumer. Disney parks and Viking tell you whether the high end is still spending on experiences. </p><p dir="ltr">Then Nvidia after the close. The Street is at roughly $109.2 billion against the company’s $108 billion guide, and it’s Colette Kress’s first report as interim CEO. The quarter was in the bag before Jensen left, so the print itself is not the risk, the guide is. Nvidia is the single best indicator of the AI capex cycle, and that cycle has been a meaningful slice of US growth. If there’s any wobble in the outlook, it’s not just a Nvidia problem, moreover, we could find out that the China book is a big part of sales and that could now be gone.</p><p dir="ltr">Wednesday</p><p dir="ltr">Target, TJX and Lowe’s before the open, and the contrast is the story. TJX is a market darling and can still win when consumers trade down. Target loses when they stop buying things they don’t need. If TJX beats and Target misses again, that is a consumer that’s still spending but increasingly picky, the same pattern as the last two years.</p><p dir="ltr">Lowe’s is the cross-check on Home Depot, with more DIY and less pro.</p><p dir="ltr">ZIM is worth a look for container rates and what the Middle East is doing to shipping lanes. Tencent gives you China gaming and advertising.</p><p dir="ltr">The Fed minutes land at 2 pm ET.</p><p dir="ltr">After the close, Helmerich &amp; Payne is the one for the oil market. With crude near $100, are US shale producers finally adding rigs? If not, the supply response isn’t coming, and that matters for the inflation outlook. Palo Alto Networks is a read on the boom in AI security. Copa covers Latin American travel demand and jet fuel costs.</p><p dir="ltr">The bigger event that night isn’t an earnings report. Anthropic prices its IPO, with 825 million shares marketed at $70 to $78. The top of the range raises $64.35 billion, and with the private placement the total hits $90.4 billion. That values the company at up to $1.4 trillion fully diluted, down from the $2 trillion floated in September.</p><p dir="ltr">The macro read is in where it prices. Top of the range, with Nvidia’s guide intact, says there is still deep demand for AI paper even with the 10-year above 5%. A price at the low end, or a cut, says the opposite. Either way, this is a huge amount of supply for the market to absorb in one night, and some of that money has to come from somewhere. Watch the rest of tech into the pricing.</p><p dir="ltr">The fundamentals are not the question. Q3 revenue rose more than 12-fold to $17 billion with a 15% adjusted margin. The question is what investors will pay for that at these rates.</p><p dir="ltr">Thursday</p><p dir="ltr">Walmart. Consensus is $0.64, the top of the company’s $0.62 to $0.64 guided range, on revenue of about $187 billion. BofA is looking for US comps of 2.8% ex-fuel.</p><p dir="ltr">No company on earth has better data on the global household. Three things to listen for: whether higher-income shoppers are still trading in, how gasoline at nearly $4 is hitting the low-end basket, and what they say about pricing power into the holidays. The stock has run 18% since the last call, so the bar is high.</p><p dir="ltr">Walmart will have to share the screen. Anthropic opens on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, and up to 20% of the deal is set aside for retail, so the first print will be noisy. The first trade matters less than where it settles by the close. The precedent is mixed: SpaceX listed in June and now trades near its IPO price after an August slide. A weak debut two days after a Nvidia report would be hard for the AI trade to shrug off. A strong one resets the mood into Thanksgiving.</p><p dir="ltr">Alibaba, PDD and NetEase round out the China picture. Deflation and price wars are the theme, with Alibaba’s cloud capex as the AI offset. Williams-Sonoma is the high-end home read, and it tends to be better than feared.</p><p dir="ltr">After the close, Ross and Gap report on the low-to-middle-income apparel shopper. Intuit is a quiet read on small business health. Keysight tells you about electronics and test-equipment orders, a capex indicator that isn’t AI.</p><p dir="ltr">Friday</p><p dir="ltr">BJ’s Wholesale closes it out. Membership trends and gas-station traffic are worth noting.</p><p dir="ltr">The bottom line</p><p dir="ltr">Real consumer spending grew 3.8% in Q3. The consumer has not cracked. But the Fed is hiking, oil is high and long rates are above 5%. This week tells us whether that 3.8% was the peak. It also tells us whether the AI trade can lose its frontman and absorb $90 billion in the same week. Those are the two pillars of this economy, and both get tested by Thursday’s close.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul dir="ltr"><li>Prior was 6.3%</li><li>PPI final demand m/m +0.3% vs +0.4&nbsp; expected</li><li>Prior m/m +1.3%</li><li>Ex-food and energy y/y +5.0% vs +5.0%&nbsp; expected</li><li>Prior ex-food and energy 5.0% y/y</li><li>Ex-food and energy m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% expected</li><li>Prior ex-food and energy +0.7% m/m</li><li>Ex-food, energy and trade y/y +4.9% vs +5.0% prior</li><li>Ex-food, energy and trade m/m +0.5%&nbsp;vs +0.5% prior</li></ul><p>The market is increasingly concerned about rising inflation but this is a slight relief, with some bids in bonds afterwards and modest USD selling. We will hear from the Fed's Goolsbee on CNBC momentarily and he recently called inflation "borderline alarming". Ahead of the data, the market was pricing in 28.5 bps of hikes for December, which is a bit over a 10% chance of a 50 bps move, with 86 bps in hikes priced in over the coming year.</p><p dir="ltr">For background, the Producer Price Index from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics measures the average change in prices that domestic producers receive for their goods, services and construction. It’s released monthly at 8:30 am ET, typically a day or two after CPI, and tracks inflation from the seller’s side rather than the consumer’s.</p><p dir="ltr">The headline is the final demand index, which covers output sold for personal consumption, business investment, government and export. Services make up about 68% of it, goods about 29% and construction the rest, so it’s far broader than a gauge of factory-gate prices. Markets focus on two core measures: final demand excluding food and energy, and the narrower measure that also excludes trade services. Trade services capture retailer and wholesaler margins, which swing sharply and often run opposite to input costs, as when gas station margins shrink during an oil spike.</p><p dir="ltr">The PPI is still watched as a pipeline indicator. The intermediate demand indexes for processed goods, unprocessed goods and services show cost pressures building at earlier stages of production before they reach consumers.</p><p dir="ltr">Its biggest market role today is as an input to core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Components such as portfolio management fees, airline passenger services, physician care and hospital services feed directly into PCE, so economists use CPI and PPI together to estimate core PCE weeks before its release. A surprise in those categories can shift Fed pricing even when the PPI headline looks unremarkable.</p><p dir="ltr">PPI data are revised for four months after initial publication, and the revisions are often large enough to change the trend.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="/stocks/wall-street-steadies-despite-nvidia-drama-but-dip-buyers-are-still-walking-a-tight-rope" rel="follow">Wall Street steadies despite Nvidia drama but dip buyers are still walking a tight rope</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-bond-market-cracks-resurface-as-higher-for-longer-fears-return-to-haunt-wall-street" rel="follow">US bond market cracks resurface as higher for longer fears return to haunt Wall Street</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/higher-real-yields-and-stronger-us-dollar-weigh-on-gold-as-trump-puts-iran-deal-in-jeopardy" rel="follow">Higher real yields and stronger US dollar weigh on gold as Trump puts Iran deal in jeopardy</a></li><li><a href="/forex/japan-prime-minister-takaichi-fires-another-verbal-warning-as-usd-jpy-flirts-with-the-160-level" rel="follow">Japan prime minister Takaichi fires another verbal warning as USD/JPY flirts with the 160 level</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-this-week-s-events-8" rel="follow">How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?</a></li><li><a href="/news/germany-october-wholesale-price-index-0-4-vs-1-9-m-m-prior" rel="follow">Germany October wholesale price index +0.4% vs +1.9% m/m prior</a></li><li><a href="/news/france-october-inflation-accelerates-as-energy-prices-surge-keeping-ecb-rate-hike-bets-alive" rel="follow">France October inflation accelerates as energy prices surge, keeping ECB rate hike bets alive</a></li><li><a href="/news/spain-inflation-remains-stubborn-in-october-keeping-ecb-rate-hike-expectations-firmly-alive" rel="follow">Spain inflation remains stubborn in October, keeping ECB rate hike expectations firmly alive</a></li><li><a href="/news/eurozone-q3-gdp-unchanged-in-second-estimate-as-uneven-growth-clouds-the-outlook" rel="follow">Eurozone Q3 GDP unchanged in second estimate as uneven growth clouds the outlook</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/solana-remains-under-pressure-amid-hawkish-fed-bets-and-renewed-us-iran-tensions-what-s-next" rel="follow">Solana remains under pressure amid hawkish Fed bets and renewed US-Iran tensions. What's next?</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">USD leads, AUD lags on the day</li><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">10-year Treasury yields up 3.6 bps to 5.139%</li><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">WTI crude oil flat at $88.72</li><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Gold up 0.4% to $3,891</li><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Bitcoin down 3.0% to $69,286</li><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">European stocks little changed; S&amp;P 500 futures +0.2%</li></ul><p></p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">It was a modestly calm session in European morning trade, although one can sense that there are still some nerves yet to settle down.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">While the Nvidia fiasco is causing a ruckus in Wall Street, US futures are reacting with much calm today and are looking for a light bounce at the open later. That follows from the comeback yesterday to trim losses before the closing bell. Nvidia shares are up by around 1.5% in pre-market, as tech shares continue to grapple with the prospect of more dip buying and a renewed selloff in the bond market.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">On the latter, long-end Treasury yields continue to push higher with 10-year yields now on approach to 5.14% and 30-year yields bordering on 5.48% today. Higher borrowing costs are particularly hurtful for growth stocks, especially at a rather sensitive time when tech shares are being called into question amid the enormous spending on AI infrastructure and how that can eventually justify the lofty valuations.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">As yields hold higher, the dollar also continues to keep steadier with USD/JPY flirting with breaching the 160.00 mark and AUD/USD down 0.3% to 0.6789 on the day.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Over in Europe, the risk mood is more tentative with regional benchmark indices moving a little lower as the stirring gains from earlier in the week look to be running out of steam. Still, it has been a good week for European stocks as investors managed to brush aside much of the fallout in US tech shares for the most part.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">In the commodities space, gold is up 0.4% to $3,891 but is now firmly in a tug of war as buyers and sellers are battling around the 100-week moving average at $3,896 to close out the week. Meanwhile, oil prices are also more tentative with WTI crude down flattish at $88.72 currently.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the US producer price data coming up next to see if that will once again reignite inflation fears and rile up the bond market before the week closes.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">I'll be away for next week, so I wish everyone a pleasant weekend and catch you again in the week after. Have a good one!</p><p></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Eurozone Q3 GDP second estimate +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q prelim</li><li>Prior +0.6%</li><li>Eurozone Q3 GDP second estimate +1.3% vs +1.3% y/y prelim</li><li>Prior +1.2%</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">There are no changes to the initial estimates as the euro area economy holds up in Q3. As a reminder, expectations were for a growth of just 0.2% on the quarter on the initial report. So, the second estimate here mainly reaffirms the beat we saw from two weeks back.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">But as mentioned with the release then, there is a bit of a catch when it comes to the relative resilience we're seeing here.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Ireland is the standout in terms of growth numbers with a whopping 5.5% quarterly expansion in Q3. However, let's be reminded of the fact that Ireland has a knack for notoriously volatile GDP figures in the past year and that always warrants some caution. The expansion here was primarily driven by strong activity in multinational-dominated industries, specifically information and communication and manufacturing.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">For some context, Ireland's headline growth figure is often a distorted gauge of domestic economic health. That is because it is heavily influenced by contract manufacturing and global profits of multinational corporations that largely flow back to foreign shareholders rather than translating directly into local living standards.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Looking to the bigger names, things aren't as great.&nbsp;Germany managed just 0.2% growth, Italy stagnated at 0.0%, and France even contracted by 0.1%. So,&nbsp;that's hardly an endorsement of economic resilience across the biggest economies in the region.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Similar to how we viewed the initial report, the inflation numbers from France and Spain today are doing little to dissuade the ECB from hiking interest rates again next month. For now, the euro area economy is still holding up somewhat but the overall growth picture remains rather uneven. The question remains&nbsp;whether the broader economy can continue to hold up in Q4 and heading into next year, otherwise the ECB will be facing up against a very tough backdrop of weakening growth and higher inflation at the same time.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Spain October final CPI +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y prelim</li><li>Prior +4.9%</li><li>Spain October final HICP +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y prelim</li><li>Prior +5.0%</li><li>Spain October core CPI +3.1% y/y</li><li>Prior +3.1%</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">No changes to the preliminary estimates as the final report here reaffirms that Spanish inflation remains stubborn with headline prices keeping near 5% in October. The latest drop in energy prices over the past week or so might help eventually but it will take some time to filter through to the economy.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">But for now, inflation pressures are at a rather uncomfortable level for Spain indubitably.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Besides that, core annual inflation is reaffirmed at 3.1% in October and that is unchanged from September. Even so,&nbsp;it is still well above what the ECB would be comfortable with as price pressures continue to pull away from the 2% target.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Alongside the French report from earlier,&nbsp;this just continues to reaffirm that the inflation monster is still a major threat that the ECB has to deal with heading into the final stages of this year.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">As things stand, markets are pricing in roughly 82% odds of the ECB making another move in December. For policymakers, they might very well have to go with the flow amid fears that&nbsp;flagging economic growth conditions could make their jobs much tougher come next year.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">In the grand scheme of things, it's not a good look for the ECB as they have quite a tough balancing act to work with. On the one hand, they have to deal with more persistent price pressures before they get out of control. On the other, they have to avoid&nbsp;sending the broader economy off a cliff. Tough.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>France October final CPI +3.4% vs +3.4% y/y prelim</li><li>Prior +3.1%</li><li>France October final HICP +3.7% vs +3.8% y/y prelim</li><li>Prior +3.4%</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The final report here confirms a further acceleration in French inflation pressures to start the final quarter of the year. That owes much to another jump in energy prices, which climbed by another 1.9% on the month and are up by 24.1% compared to October last year. The annual estimate is once again after after the estimates for August and September of +16.7% and +21.3% respectively.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">That being said, core annual inflation also picked up in October in moving to 1.7% - up from 1.5% in September. That comes as services inflation continues to rise further as well, moving up to 2.6% in October - up from 2.4% in September and 1.9% in August. Ouch.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">With that, it reaffirms that price pressures in Europe's second-largest economy are continuing to intensify and at a rather awkward time. With French growth conditions struggling and fiscal risks mounting, it is making for a rather untimely backdrop for policymakers to be dealing with stronger inflation.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">As such, that will keep ECB policymakers on their toes in navigating the next steps. For now, the report here will just reinforce expectations of another rate hike in December with markets also pricing in roughly 82% odds of that at the moment.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, we get the final French and Spanish CPI readings, as well as the second estimate of the Eurozone Q3 GDP. The final data is almost never market-moving because markets react more to preliminary figures. The same goes for the second estimate of the GDP. Therefore, the data won't change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will likely be muted.&nbsp;</p><p>The focus will remain on the Fed and especially US-Iran developments, as the risk-off sentiment strengthened yesterday after Trump stated that the US doesn't need a deal with Iran.&nbsp;</p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, we have the US PPI report. The PPI Y/Y is expected at 6.6% vs 6.3% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.4% vs 1.3% prior. The Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 5.0% vs 5.0% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.7% prior.&nbsp;</p><p>The data is unlikely to change much at this point since most of the hawkish repricing has already taken place after Fed governor Waller's remarks and the hotter than expected US CPI. The market is currently pricing in an 89% chance of a 25 bps hike in December and an 11% probability of a larger 50 bps move.&nbsp;</p><p>CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS</p><ul><li>08:30 GMT/03:30 ET - ECB's Zigman (neutral - voter)</li><li>14:10 GMT/09:10 ET - Fed's Williams (neutral - voter)</li><li>15:50 GMT/10:50 ET - Fed's Bowman (dovish - voter)</li><li>17:00 GMT/12:00 ET - Fed's Daly (neutral - non voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Germany October wholesale price index +0.4% m/m</li><li>Prior +1.9%</li><li>Germany October wholesale price index 8.8% y/y</li><li>Prior +8.7%</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The breakdownWell, German wholesale prices are continuing to push up in October with the annual estimate hitting 8.8% - the highest since February 2023. The price increase in October was still primarily driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has led to a rise in energy products in particular.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The price increase in petroleum products compared to the same month last year was 47.6% and compard to the month before, was 0.9% higher.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Besides that, there was also a significant price increase in&nbsp;wholesale trade for grain, raw tobacco, seeds, and animal feed. That was seen up 21.2% compared to October last year and 0.7% higher compared to September the month before.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Overall, this just reaffirms that price pressures in Germany are holding up to start the final quarter of the year. Businesses will be feeling the pinch here and it will be a question of how much and how willing are they to pass on these added costs to households and consumers. It's all a margin game now essentially.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">As for the ECB, the risks of any second-round effects will continue to grow the longer that this trend persists. So, there is that to keep in mind as we look towards next year.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">What does this data measure?Germany's wholesale price index measures changes in prices charged by wholesalers to retailers and other businesses. It offers an early indication of cost pressures in the supply chain, which can eventually feed through to consumer inflation.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Why does it matter to markets?Germany is the the euro area's largest economy, making wholesale prices a useful gauge of underlying inflation risks. A sustained increase in wholesale costs could complicate the ECB's efforts to contain inflation, particularly if businesses pass higher costs on to consumers.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">How does it fit into the current economic landscape?Wholesale inflation has been accelerating, with September's annual increase reaching its strongest pace since early 2023. Higher energy costs and imported goods prices have been adding pressure, making life more expensive for businesses already dealing with uneven demand.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Current relevance to markets?Moderate.&nbsp;The key question is whether energy-driven inflation pressures are becoming more persistent, even as oil prices have retreated from earlier highs. Another elevated reading would reinforce worries surrounding inflation and the ECB outlook, although CPI and wage developments remain more decisive indicators for policymakers.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Oh, would you look at who's back to spoil the party this week? Well, it is the bond market of course.&nbsp;And surprise, surprise, it's bringing along the same old problems that Wall Street has been trying to sweep under the rug over the past week.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">For all the optimism about easing geopolitical tensions earlier this week, we're right back to square one or perhaps even taking one step back now. 10-year Treasury yields have climbed up to 5.12% while 30-year yields are pushing 5.45% as we look to end the week.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">It's rather amusing that&nbsp;we're still running in circles, confronting the same issues that drove yields to multi-decade highs in the first place. I mean, was anything ever really fixed?</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Oil prices may have fallen at the start of the week, but <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/oil-prices-rise-after-iran-reports-strikes/" rel="follow">fresh reports of strikes in Iran</a> and <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-we-don-t-need-a-deal-with-iran/" rel="follow">Trump declaring that the US doesn't need a deal with Tehran</a> have quickly poured cold water on hopes of any lasting reprieve. Yup, pretty much a case of déjà vu and that is nothing new when it comes to the US-Iran conflict. We've been down this road one too many a time over the last eight months.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">As such, that leaves the threat of another energy-driven inflation shock hanging over markets. And it's not as though the latest inflation numbers are giving the Fed much room to breathe either.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-october-core-cpi-vs-0-2-expected/" rel="follow">October CPI report</a>&nbsp;saw headline prices rise 0.4% against expectations of 0.3%, while core inflation also surprised higher at 0.3%. Well, so much for the thought of inflation quietly disappearing into the background.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">When you put those two together, the <a href="https://investinglive.com/education/what-does-higher-for-longer-actually-mean-in-the-bond-market/" rel="follow">higher for longer narrative</a> is proving to be rather stubborn. And the backdrop gets even more uncomfortable when you have Washington continuing to pile on debt at a time when borrowing costs are already painfully high.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The latest numbers this week showed that the US posted <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-october-federal-budget-deficit-sets-a-record/" rel="follow">a record $404 billion budget deficit</a> for October, up from $284 billion a year earlier. That's hardly reassuring when the government needs investors to keep financing its spending. And it's evident that those very same investors aren't exactly waiting in line to lend money to the government.&nbsp;The <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-30-year-bond-auction-tails-as-demand-disappoints-for-second-straight-day/" rel="follow">latest $25 billion 30-year Treasury auction</a> saw the bid-to-cover ratio slip to 2.36 from 2.54 previously, underscoring weaker demand at the long-end of the curve.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The trouble with all this is that it goes beyond just what the Fed does next.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">At this stage, investors&nbsp;want greater compensation for the uncertainty of holding government debt. That is especially the case as&nbsp;inflation risks continue to linger and Washington's borrowing needs are showing little signs of slowing down.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">In essence, that's the term premium&nbsp;that the bond market is talking about.&nbsp;Or to put it more simply, if I'm lending you money for 30 years, you'd better make it worth my while.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Now, a Fed&nbsp;pause might provide some temporary relief for broader markets. However, that won't magically make those bigger picture concerns disappear in an instant.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">So, what does this mean for Wall Street?</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Well, tech shares have been under the microscope in recent weeks and the latest developments here will only increase the scrutiny on them moving forward.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">In the past few weeks, investors were already getting nervous about the enormous AI infrastructure spending and whether those investments could eventually justify their lofty expectations. And Nvidia's recent woes have only shaken confidence further.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">So now, you're adding in another problem to that. Or should I say, a familiar problem that we have been talking about since August and September i.e. surging bond yields. Higher Treasury yields will make future earnings less valuable in today's money, while also raising financing costs for companies spending heavily on growth. That's a troubling thought that is coming at the wrong time when&nbsp;investors are already questioning how much they're willing to pay for the AI dream.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">All that being said,&nbsp;I'm not suggesting that a major crash in tech stocks is inevitable.&nbsp;But with 10-year yields starting to nudge back up above 5% again, it is worth keeping in mind that tech stocks don't quite have as much breathing room as they once did in terms of trying to&nbsp;withstand another push higher in borrowing costs.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">As much as markets&nbsp;want to celebrate falling oil prices or the prospect of an eventual Fed pivot, I struggle to see how either solves the fundamental problems weighing on bonds.&nbsp;We're still dealing with sticky inflation, persistent fiscal deficits and the fact that investors are demanding more to finance US debt.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">And until&nbsp;something changes, I reckon the bond market will keep finding ways to haunt Wall Street about the same old problems that never really went away.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/stock-market-update/asian-stocks-steady-as-nikkei-gains-1-4-hang-seng-slips-on-nvidia-leadership-fallout" rel="follow">Asian stocks steady as Nikkei gains 1.4%, Hang Seng slips on Nvidia leadership fallout</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-dipped-under-70k-first-time-since-august" rel="follow">Bitcoin dipped under $70K, first time since August</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/iran-s-guards-claim-strike-on-us-radar-in-bahrain-warn-firms-over-hormuz-oil-trade" rel="follow">Iran’s Guards claim strike on US radar in Bahrain, warn firms over Hormuz oil trade</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/anthropic-ipo-six-times-oversubscribed-what-retail-investors-can-realistically-expect" rel="follow">Anthropic IPO six times oversubscribed: what retail investors can realistically expect</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/airlines-face-higher-fuel-bills-as-pre-war-hedges-expire-and-jet-fuel-holds-near-150" rel="follow">Airlines face higher fuel bills as pre-war hedges expire and jet fuel holds near $150</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/smic-co-ceo-sees-2026-revenue-topping-12-billion-as-ai-demand-stretches-chip-upcycle" rel="follow">SMIC co-CEO sees 2026 revenue topping $12 billion as AI demand stretches chip upcycle</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/gold-set-for-3-3bn-of-index-fund-buying-in-january-as-rebalancing-flips-in-its-favour" rel="follow">Gold set for $3.3bn of index fund buying in January as rebalancing flips in its favour</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/bytedance-plans-6bn-share-buyback-at-about-400-billion-valuation-up-20-in-a-year" rel="follow">ByteDance plans $6bn share buyback at about $400 billion valuation, up 20% in a year</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-for-today-at-6-7152-vs-estimate-at-6-6756" rel="follow">PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7152 (vs. estimate at 6.6756)</a></li><li><a href="/news/japan-s-katayama-warns-of-one-sided-yen-moves-near-160-will-coordinate-with-us-treasury" rel="follow">Japan’s Katayama warns of one-sided yen moves near 160, will coordinate with US Treasury</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/barclays-sees-oil-risks-skewed-higher-with-middle-east-flows-still-15-below-pre-war" rel="follow">Barclays sees oil risks skewed higher with Middle East flows still 15% below pre-war</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-s-williams-says-inflation-stubbornly-high-and-fed-still-has-work-to-do-on-policy" rel="follow">Fed’s Williams says inflation stubbornly high and Fed still has work to do on policy</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/us-treasury-bought-yen-in-july-its-first-intervention-since-1998-as-yen-nears-160-again" rel="follow">US Treasury bought yen in July, its first intervention since 1998, as yen nears 160 again</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/blackrock-sees-gold-support-intact-despite-near-30-drop-from-record-expects-milder-gains" rel="follow">BlackRock sees gold support intact despite near 30% drop from record, expects milder gains</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/ubs-sees-no-rba-cuts-until-late-2027-as-ai-boom-fuels-inflation-growth-slowing-to-1-4" rel="follow">UBS sees no RBA cuts until late 2027 as AI boom fuels inflation, growth slowing to 1.4%</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/anthropic-ipo-targets-around-1-trillion-valuation-half-the-2-trillion-once-whispered" rel="follow">Anthropic IPO targets around $1 trillion valuation, half the $2 trillion once whispered</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/goldman-sees-ai-spending-hitting-1-4-trillion-by-end-2027-nearly-4-of-the-us-economy" rel="follow">Goldman sees AI spending hitting $1.4 trillion by end-2027, nearly 4% of the US economy</a></li><li><a href="/news/nz-manufacturing-pmi-eases-to-54-9-in-october-but-extends-expansion-run-to-16-months" rel="follow">NZ manufacturing PMI eases to 54.9 in October but extends expansion run to 16 months</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/cerebras-raises-2026-outlook-sees-revenue-tripling-in-2027-as-26bn-backlog-builds" rel="follow">Cerebras raises 2026 outlook, sees revenue tripling in 2027 as $26bn backlog builds</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/applied-materials-beats-on-q4-and-guides-above-forecasts-as-chip-equipment-demand-holds" rel="follow">Applied Materials beats on Q4 and guides above forecasts as chip equipment demand holds</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/cisco-beats-and-lifts-fy27-view-as-ai-revenue-from-hyperscalers-set-to-more-than-double" rel="follow">Cisco beats and lifts FY27 view as AI revenue from hyperscalers set to more than double</a></li><li><a href="/news/investinglive-americas-market-news-wrap-jensen-huang-ousted-from-nvidia" rel="follow">investingLive Americas market news wrap: Jensen Huang ousted from Nvidia</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>Japan’s 10-year bond yield rose about 7 basis points to around 2.87% as JGBs followed Treasuries lower on bets on more Fed hikes</li><li>New York Fed President Williams said inflation is stubbornly high and the Fed still has work to do</li><li>The yen traded near 160 per dollar, and Finance Minister Katayama warned of one-sided moves and said she would keep in contact with the US Treasury</li><li>The Kospi reversed an early 2% gain and turned lower, the Nikkei pared its rise and the Hang Seng fell about 1%</li><li>Bitcoin fell more than 6% to below $69,000 amid continued ETF outflows</li><li>Brent held near $96 despite an unverified Iranian claim of a strike on a US radar in Bahrain, while gold rose close to 1%</li></ul><p dir="ltr">Rising bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes spread through Asian markets on Friday. Japanese government bonds slumped, the yen stayed close to 160 per dollar and bitcoin fell below $69,000. Regional stocks gave back much of an early rebound, as concern over Nvidia’s leadership change continued to weigh on AI-linked shares.</p><p dir="ltr">Fed and rates</p><p dir="ltr">Japan’s 10-year yield rose about 7 basis points to around 2.87%, at the day’s high. JGBs followed US Treasuries, which posted a second straight session of losses as traders added to bets on more forceful Fed tightening. The US 10-year yield traded near 5.13%. New York Fed President John Williams said overnight that inflation remains stubbornly high and that the Fed will need to act over time to bring it back to 2%. He described the US economy as getting stronger but not overheating. His remarks followed this week’s hotter-than-expected October consumer price data, after which markets priced a high probability of a quarter-point hike at the Fed’s 9 December decision, along with an outside chance of a half-point move.</p><p dir="ltr">Yen and Japan</p><p dir="ltr">Dollar-yen traded near 159.90. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she is seeing one-sided, rapid currency moves and will communicate with the US Treasury to respond appropriately, adding that the two countries set out a shared stance on currencies at their summit. She declined to comment on intervention. Her remarks came after the New York Fed confirmed that the US Treasury bought yen in July, its first yen-buying intervention since 1998, alongside Japan’s own intervention. Katayama also said the government will bring forward winter subsidies for utility bills to ease energy costs for households.</p><p dir="ltr">Oil and geopolitics</p><p dir="ltr">Brent traded near $95.70 and WTI near $88.40, both slightly lower. That was despite a claim by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards that they destroyed a US early-warning radar in Bahrain in response to an attack on a telecommunications tower in Sirik. The claim could not be independently verified, and there was no immediate US comment. The Guards also warned companies working with the US over oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Barclays said the market is too relaxed about the risks, with Middle East flows still around 85% of pre-war levels and inventories outside China depressed. Goldman Sachs also said risks to its oil forecast are skewed to the upside. Airlines are feeling the pressure as fuel hedges struck before the war expire, with jet fuel near $148 a barrel.</p><p dir="ltr">Asian equities</p><p dir="ltr">The Nikkei 225 was up about 0.8% near 61,300 in afternoon trade, down from a gain of about 1.4% at midday. The Topix rose about 0.3%. The Kospi reversed an early 2% advance to trade about 0.7% lower near 5,300, with SK Hynix down more than 2% and Samsung Electronics off about 0.6%. The Kosdaq held a gain of about 1.5%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell about 1% to near 23,770, while the Shanghai Composite edged up about 0.2%.</p><p dir="ltr">Jensen Huang’s resignation as Nvidia chief executive remained the main drag on AI names. Nvidia shares fell about 3% in extended US trading, and South Korea’s Naver also slipped. Citi said investors may look to AMD, Arista and Broadcom as alternatives. In China, SMIC reported record third-quarter revenue of about $3.19 billion and more than doubled its profit. Its co-chief executive said full-year revenue should top $12 billion, but warned that tight supplies of chipmaking equipment could disrupt capital spending.</p><p dir="ltr">AI and tech</p><p dir="ltr">Earnings continued to support the AI spending story. Cisco beat forecasts and raised its full-year outlook on AI networking demand from hyperscalers. Applied Materials guided above consensus, and Cerebras reported record revenue and a backlog of around $26 billion. Goldman Sachs forecast that annualised AI-related spending will reach $1.4 trillion by the end of 2027, nearly 4% of the US economy. ByteDance plans a share buyback valuing it at about $400 billion, according to a report.</p><p dir="ltr">Gold and crypto</p><p dir="ltr">Gold rose about 0.7% to near $3,914 and silver traded around $50. BlackRock described the outlook for gold as more balanced, with central bank buying offsetting pressure from higher real yields and a firm dollar. Société Générale expects January’s commodity index rebalancing to add about $3.3 billion of net buying in gold futures. Bitcoin dropped more than 6% to below $69,000, as US spot bitcoin ETFs extended a run of outflows that has taken November’s withdrawals to close to $2 billion.</p><p dir="ltr">Australia and New Zealand</p><p dir="ltr">The Australian dollar traded near 0.6800 and the New Zealand dollar near 0.5540. The yield advantage that Australian 10-year bonds held over Treasuries earlier in the year has disappeared, with the Fed leaning toward hikes and the RBA appearing to be on hold. UBS expects the RBA to keep policy restrictive, with no rate cuts before late 2027. In New Zealand, the manufacturing PMI eased to 54.9 in October but marked a 16th straight month of expansion.</p><p dir="ltr">Coming up</p><p dir="ltr">Anthropic is due to price its IPO on 18 November, with Nasdaq trading set to begin the following day. The deal is reported to be about six times oversubscribed.</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">Katayama’s comments make intervention a more serious risk for anyone pushing dollar-yen above 160, especially as the US has now been confirmed as a willing partner. Expect choppy, headline-driven trading around that level, with dealers alert to any reports of rate checks. The underlying pressure on the yen remains, though, as rising Fed hike expectations keep rate differentials in the dollar’s favour. Oil matters too: higher crude prices raise Japan’s import bill and add to selling pressure on the yen, which is partly why Tokyo is bringing forward energy subsidies.</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr">Earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/us-treasury-bought-yen-in-july-its-first-intervention-since-1998-as-yen-nears-160-again" target="_blank" rel="follow">US Treasury bought yen in July, its first intervention since 1998, as yen nears 160 again</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr"> With the yen back near 160, Katayama is reminding markets that Tokyo and Washington are working together on currencies, and that both have intervened before.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>Finance Minister Katayama says she is seeing one-sided, rapid moves in currency markets</li><li>She will communicate with the US Treasury and respond appropriately</li><li>She says the US and Japan shared a common stance on foreign exchange at their summit</li><li>She declined to comment on intervention records</li><li>The government is bringing forward winter utility subsidies, funded from reserve funds</li><li>The yen is back near 160 per dollar, the level that triggered joint US-Japan intervention in the summer</li></ul><p dir="ltr">Main article: Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stepped up her warnings over the yen’s slide, saying she is seeing one-sided and rapid moves in currency markets and will stay in contact with the US Treasury to respond appropriately. Her comments come as the yen trades back near 160 per dollar, the level that drew joint US-Japan intervention in the summer.</p><p dir="ltr">Katayama said the US and Japan set out a shared stance on foreign exchange at their summit, signalling that Tokyo sees Washington as aligned on the need to curb disorderly moves. She declined to comment on intervention records. That came shortly after the New York Fed disclosed that the US Treasury bought yen in July, its first yen-buying intervention since 1998, acting alongside Japan’s Ministry of Finance.</p><p dir="ltr">The wording matters. Japanese officials typically use terms like “one-sided” and “rapid” when their concern is growing. Naming coordination with the US Treasury adds weight, because Washington has now shown it is willing to put its own money behind the yen. Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, Atsushi Mimura, gave a similar message on Thursday, warning that it was too early to forget the summer’s intervention.</p><p dir="ltr">The yen’s renewed weakness reflects a familiar gap. A resilient US economy, stubborn inflation and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December are supporting the dollar. The Bank of Japan, which raised rates in June and September, is widely expected to hike again in December. Until that gap narrows, officials are relying on words, and the threat of action, to slow the yen’s fall.</p><p dir="ltr">Katayama also said the government has decided to bring forward subsidies for household utility bills this winter, paid for from reserve funds. The move aims to protect households from high energy costs. Elevated oil prices have pushed those costs up, and the weak yen makes them worse, because Japan imports almost all of its energy.</p><p dir="ltr">For markets, the comments make it riskier for traders to push dollar-yen through 160. With both Tokyo and Washington signalling they are ready to act, the risk of another round of intervention is likely to keep the pair volatile around that level in the weeks before the BOJ’s December meeting.&nbsp;</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">A PMI still well above 50 gives little reason to doubt New Zealand’s recovery, so the small fall should do little to change the outlook for the RBNZ or the New Zealand dollar. The focus on fuel prices among survey respondents links New Zealand’s factory sector to the oil shock. That keeps input costs and inflation pressure in view, even as demand holds up. Election uncertainty is a near-term drag on business confidence that could weigh on investment decisions until a coalition is formed. Markets will look to Monday’s services index for a fuller read on domestic momentum.</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr"> New Zealand’s factory expansion lost a little pace in October but held a solid footing, as Christmas demand and infrastructure work offset rising fuel costs and post-election uncertainty.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>The seasonally adjusted PMI fell 1.4 points to 54.9 in October from 56.3 in September, a 16th straight month of expansion</li><li>Deliveries rose to 61.4 and finished stocks were 58.0, while new orders eased to 54.3 and production to 53.9</li><li>Employment was again the weakest sub-index at 51.9, little changed from September</li><li>Negative comments rose to 56.4% from 53%, with fuel prices, the cost of living and election uncertainty cited</li><li>Business South led the regions at 65.0, while Business Central fell into contraction at 49.1</li><li>BNZ expects moderate manufacturing growth through Q4 and around 2% GDP growth for 2026</li></ul><p dir="ltr"> New Zealand’s manufacturing sector kept expanding in October, though more slowly than in September’s strong result. The seasonally adjusted BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) fell 1.4 points to 54.9 from 56.3, BusinessNZ said on Friday. A reading above 50 means the sector is expanding and below 50 that it is contracting. October was a 16th straight month above that line.</p><p dir="ltr">The detail was mixed but still solid. Deliveries rose to 61.4, and finished stocks were 58.0, just below September. New orders slipped to 54.3 from 56.8 and production fell to 53.9 from 56.6, but both remain well inside expansion territory. Employment was again the weakest component at 51.9, almost unchanged from September.</p><p dir="ltr">BusinessNZ’s director of advocacy, Catherine Beard, welcomed more than a year of unbroken expansion. She said the softening in new orders and production was worth watching. She also said the Christmas build-up and steady infrastructure work suggest manufacturers will finish the year on a solid footing, even as input costs and the cost of living weigh on many firms.</p><p dir="ltr">Survey comments turned a little gloomier. The share of negative comments rose to 56.4% from 53% in September. Respondents cited fuel prices, the cost of living and uncertainty following the general election. BNZ said election uncertainty is likely to linger until final results are in and coalition talks are settled.</p><p dir="ltr">The regional picture was uneven. Business South had the strongest reading at 65.0, ahead of Canterbury at 57.9 and the EMA’s northern region at 55.5. The Business Central region slipped into contraction at 49.1. BNZ said every manufacturing subindustry expanded in October.</p><p dir="ltr">The bigger picture is still positive. BNZ said the result supports its forecast of moderate manufacturing growth through the fourth quarter and annual GDP growth of around 2% in 2026. Its senior economist said that although the PMI moves around from month to month, momentum in manufacturing is firmly positive. New Zealand’s reading also compares well internationally. It matches the US and is above the global manufacturing PMI of 52.6. The services index, due on Monday, will show whether the slower pace is limited to manufacturing.&nbsp;</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/news/us-weekly-initial-jobless-claims-200k-vs-195k-expected" rel="follow">US weekly initial jobless claims 200K vs 195K expected</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-s-hammack-we-need-to-move-to-restrictive-mon-pol-to-lower-inflation" rel="follow">Fed's Hammack: We need to move to restrictive mon pol to lower inflation</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/jensen-huang-ousted-as-ceo-of-nvidia" rel="follow">Jensen Huang ousted as CEO of Nvidia</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-october-existing-home-sales-3-75m-vs-3-85m-expected" rel="follow">US October existing home sales 3.75m vs 3.85m expected</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-s-goolsbee-inflation-has-been-well-above-target" rel="follow">Fed's Goolsbee: Inflation has been well-above target</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-s-daly-how-much-tightening-and-when-is-no-a-decision-for-right-now" rel="follow">Fed's Daly: How much tightening and when is no a decision for right now</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-30-year-bond-auction-tails-as-demand-disappoints-for-second-straight-day" rel="follow">US 30-year bond auction tails as demand disappoints for second straight day</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-october-federal-budget-deficit-sets-a-record" rel="follow">US October federal budget deficit sets a record</a></li><li><a href="/news/oil-prices-rise-after-iran-reports-strikes" rel="follow">Oil prices rise after Iran reports strikes</a></li><li><a href="/news/trump-i-would-consider-a-week-long-campaign-against-cuba" rel="follow">Trump: I would consider a week-long campaign against Cuba</a></li><li>Anthropic IPO said to be six times oversubscribed</li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold down $112 to $3874</li><li>US 10-year yields up 13 bps to 5.12%</li><li>WTI crude oil up $2.47 to $89.00</li><li>USD leads, AUD lags</li><li>S&amp;P 500 down 0.3%, Nadaq down 0.4%</li></ul><p>The drama at Nvidia was the focus of trading today as CEO and founder Jensen Huang was ousted over extra-marital affairs, including one with a purported Chinese agent. The whole things stinks of a hit job but that's the game of corporate thrones. The ouster didn't hit as a shock as the WSJ reported it was coming late yesterday. In any case, shares fell as much as 11% before rebounding to finish down 4.5%, in part because earnings weren't pushed back. A new CEO search is underway and Trump suggested Tim Cook on Truth Social.</p><p>Critically, the turmoil and NVDA didn't sink the broader market as stocks bounced around, briefly turning positive. That was particularly impressive given that Treasury yields jumped once again, rising 10-15 bps across the curve. Oil helped to push rates higher as Trump indicated JD Vance won't be attending the rumored talks. Later, Iran reported strikes in a southern cited and oil finished at the highs of the day.</p><p>The euro fell to the lowest since April 2025 on broad US dollar strength. A few Fed officials spoke but I found it most-notable that the hawkish Hammack argued against a 50 bps hike in December and somethign gradual instead.&nbsp;</p><p></p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Trump said he wants to "get Cuba done" before his term ends</li><li>Would consider "a little bit" of military force</li><li>Says I will not hesitate to use military force against Iran if necessary </li></ul><p>It sounds like the plan is to continue blockading Cuba but with Trump you never know, as he improvises nearly everything.</p><p>Meanwhile, the US struck Iran today and there have been ongoing low-level strikes.&nbsp;Senator Tim Kaine today said he is drafting a provision to end the Iran war that he will demand be attached to a Dec. 11 stopgap spending bill.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Iran’s state IRNA news agency reports:</p><p> “Official sources have confirmed that Sirik in Hormozgan Province has been targeted minutes ago by the enemy”.</p><p> There were reports earlier of explosions being heard in Sirik and it was confirmed. Importantly,&nbsp;the confirmation suggests that state media might be looking to highlight the attack, perhaps in preparation for&nbsp;returning&nbsp;to war.</p><p>That fits with a recent&nbsp;video highlighting a rebuilt (or hidden) underground missile city.</p><p>. </p><p>Iran may have concluded that it won't be able to get an acceptable deal and that further fighting is inevitable. The US is also sailing a third aircraft&nbsp;carrier to the region with talk of potential strikes in the next week and around the Nov 24 full moon.</p><p>The oil market took notice today with&nbsp;WTI up $2.27 to $88.78 per barrel. That's a notable bounce after the fast&nbsp;drop to $112 on November&nbsp;2.</p><p>Trump also&nbsp;stamped out any talk of JD Vance negotiating&nbsp;directly with Iran today when he wrote:</p><blockquote>I have asked Vice President Vance to focus his complete and total attention on the Massive Corruption and Crime taking place in Democrat run Cities and States throughout the U.S. The Blue States, such as Minnesota, California, Illinois, and many more, are all poorly run, corrupt disasters. Billions of Dollars is being stolen each and every month. Our Budget could be quickly BALANCED with the correction of this large scale criminal activity. CORRUPTION is in the Democrat Leadership’s blood! We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed. We’ve got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we’ve got their Strait! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DJT</blockquote><p>I fear this is all headed in the wrong direction, unless you're an oil bull.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Outlays of $773 billion vs $689 billion in Oct 2025</li><li>Receipts $369 billion vs $404 billion in Oct 2025</li><li>Deficit of $404 billion vs $284 billion in Oct 2025</li></ul><p>This numbe really puts things into perspective. Even if the US doubled its tax revenues in October, it wouldn't have been enough to balance the budget.</p><p>Meanwhile, IRNA reports an attack on Southern Iran near Sirik, and that's weighing on risk assets.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><p>High yield 5.441% vs 5.437% WI</p></li><li><p>Tail of 0.4 basis points </p></li><li><p>Bid-to-cover 2.36x vs 2.44x average</p></li><li><p>Dealers awarded 11.39% vs 9.49% average</p></li></ul><p>The US Treasury sold $25 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday in a disappointing auction that adds to signs of softening demand at the long end of the curve.</p><p>The auction stopped at 5.441%, a 0.4 basis point tail compared to the 5.437% when-issued yield. That's a deterioration from last month's 0.1 basis point tail and compares unfavourably with the six-auction average of a 0.1 basis point stop-through.</p><p>The bid-to-cover ratio fell to 2.36x from 2.54x previously, also below the 2.44x six-auction average.</p><p>The breakdown of buyers wasn't particularly encouraging either. Indirect bidders, which include foreign central banks and other institutional investors, took 68.11%, down from 72.32% last month and below the 70.49% average.</p><p>Dealers were left holding 11.39%, up sharply from 6.79% in the previous auction. Direct bidders took 20.5%, roughly in line with recent averages.</p><p>The results follow Tuesday's soft 10-year auction and suggest that investors remain reluctant to aggressively add duration, even after yields cheapened ahead of the sale.</p><p>The good news is that the high yield was well below last month's 5.618%, but that's more a reflection of the broader rally in bonds than stronger underlying demand.</p><p>The takeaway is another weak auction, with the higher dealer allocation particularly troubling. It's not a disaster, but it's hardly a vote of confidence in the long end of the Treasury market.</p><p>30s, daily:</p><p></p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was 3.99m (revised to 3.97m)</li><li>Sales -5.5% vs +1.5% prior (revised to +1.0%)</li><li>Inventory at 5.1 months</li><li>Median price $416,700, up 0.4% y/y</li></ul><p>The US housing market is in a deep slump and there is no help coming from the Fed. At some point it will turn but we're not there yet.</p><p dir="ltr">For background, the National Association of Realtors publishes its existing home sales report monthly at 10 am ET, usually in the third or fourth week of the following month. Existing homes make up roughly 90% of US home sales, so the report is the broadest monthly read on housing market activity.</p><p dir="ltr">The headline figure is the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of sales, covering single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops. Because the data count closed transactions, they reflect contracts signed one to two months earlier. NAR’s pending home sales index, released later each month, tracks contract signings and gives an earlier signal of where closings are headed.</p><p dir="ltr">The report also includes the median existing-home price, which isn’t seasonally adjusted and is usually compared with the same month a year earlier. Because it’s a median, it can be skewed by changes in the mix of homes selling, such as more high-end sales in a given month. Repeat-sales measures like Case-Shiller give a cleaner read on price trends.</p><p dir="ltr">Inventory is one of the most closely watched details. NAR reports the number of homes for sale and months’ supply, the time it would take to sell current inventory at the current sales pace. Around six months is generally considered a balanced market. The report also tracks first-time buyers’ share of sales, all-cash purchases, investor activity and days on market.</p><p dir="ltr">Existing home sales rarely move broader markets. Their value is in showing how mortgage rates and affordability are affecting housing turnover. Sales have been held down in recent years by the lock-in effect, with homeowners reluctant to give up low-rate mortgages, which has kept inventory tight and prices elevated despite weak volumes.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was 189K</li><li>Four week average vs 194.75K prior</li><li>Continuing claims vs 1710K expected</li></ul><p dir="ltr">The US Department of Labor publishes its weekly unemployment insurance claims report every Thursday at 8:30 am ET, or Wednesday when a holiday falls later in the week. It’s the most timely official read on the US labor market, covering the week that ended just five days earlier.</p><p dir="ltr">The headline figure is initial jobless claims, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. It’s a direct gauge of layoffs. Because the weekly data are noisy, markets also watch the four-week moving average to gauge the trend.</p><p dir="ltr">The report also includes continuing claims, the number of people still receiving benefits after their initial filing, which lags initial claims by a week. While initial claims track layoffs, continuing claims show how hard it is for people out of work to find new jobs. A steady rise in continuing claims alongside low initial claims has often signaled a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market where workers aren’t being let go but are struggling to get rehired.</p><p dir="ltr">Claims tend to get extra attention during the week that includes the 12th of the month, which is the survey reference week for the monthly nonfarm payrolls report, giving an early hint at the jobs data.</p><p dir="ltr">Seasonal adjustment is a persistent challenge. Holidays, summer auto plant retooling, school calendars, hurricanes and strikes can distort the numbers, as can surges in fraudulent filings in individual states. The report includes unadjusted state-level data and separate figures for federal employees, which can matter during government layoffs or shutdowns.</p><p dir="ltr">Because claims are released weekly and few other labor indicators are as current, a sustained break higher is one of the clearest early warning signs of a weakening economy.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>S&amp;P 500 futures are at a session low, down 0.75% as Trump submarines any talk of an Iran deal.</p><p>Reports suggested there could be direct talks between Iran and Vice President JD Vance soon but it looks like that's not the path Trump wants to go down. He writes:</p><p>I have asked Vice President Vance to focus his complete and total attention on the Massive Corruption and Crime taking place in Democrat run Cities and States throughout the U.S. The Blue States, such as Minnesota, California, Illinois, and many more, are all poorly run, corrupt disasters. Billions of Dollars is being stolen each and every month. Our Budget could be quickly BALANCED with the correction of this large scale criminal activity. CORRUPTION is in the Democrat Leadership’s blood! We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed. We’ve got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we’ve got their Strait! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DJT</p><p>There have been reports suggesting that Trump was leaning towards leaving the status quo in place in Iran, where the US military manages a convoy and Iran picks off tankers from time to time. The US is also trying to ramp up its ground-based blockade on Iran.</p><p>So it's basically a seige now and we will have to see how that develops, but it's certainly a tighter oil market that we would have if Iran's oil and Hormuz oil was allowed to fully flow.</p><p>It's also worth noting that Trump is focused his messaging on corruption here, which is something that was highly cited by voters in the midterms. Trump appears to be trying to flip that back on Democrats.</p><p>This morning, he also went back to the greatest hits collection, threatening Mexico with tariffs due to illegal immigrants.</p><blockquote>Here we go again! With the perceived loss by the Republicans in the Midterms - I WAS NOT ON THE BALLOT- the INVASION of our Country is taking place again. Huge CARAVANS are forming and beginning their illegal march through Mexico. Many of the people in these Caravans are those that various countries don’t want - “Send them to America,” they say - But they will not be accepted! MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW, and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED. MEXICO, THE GOVERNOR OF TEXAS, THE VERY LIBERAL NEW GOVERNOR OF TEXAS, OUR GREAT BORDER PATROL, &amp; ICE, HAVE BEEN SO INFORMED. There will be no leniency! Thank you for your attention to this matter.</blockquote><p>Trump is also leaning on the Senate to pass a voter ID act.</p><p>Oil has risen about 1% since the Iran comment from Trump.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="/commodities/gold-price-faces-a-key-test-as-4-000-breaks-and-weekly-support-beckons" rel="follow">Gold price faces a key test as $4,000 breaks and weekly support beckons</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/gold-erases-post-midterms-gains-as-higher-real-yields-and-us-dollar-hurt-what-s-next" rel="follow">Gold erases post-midterms gains as higher real yields and US dollar hurt. What's next?</a></li><li><a href="/news/chinese-tech-firms-reportedly-rushing-to-secure-more-nvidia-chip-capacity-amid-fears-that-spy-scandal-would-spur-tighter-restrictions" rel="follow">Chinese tech firms reportedly rushing to secure more Nvidia chip capacity amid fears that spy scandal would spur tighter restrictions</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/nvidia-stock-plunges-8-6-but-amd-and-broadcom-rally-which-chip-stocks-are-worth-buying" rel="follow">Nvidia stock plunges 8.6%, but AMD and Broadcom rally. Which chip stocks are worth buying?</a></li><li><a href="/technical-analysis/nasdaq-futures-are-under-pressure-is-it-too-late-to-short" rel="follow">Nasdaq futures are under pressure. Is it too late to short?</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/crude-oil-is-caught-between-hopes-of-de-escalation-and-concerns-of-further-escalation-what-s-next" rel="follow">Crude oil is caught between hopes of de-escalation and concerns of further escalation. What's next?</a></li><li><a href="/technical-analysis/chart-of-the-day-usd-jpy-nears-160-00-as-technical-warning-signs-raise-japan-intervention-risks" rel="follow">Chart of the day: USD/JPY nears 160.00 as technical warning signs raise Japan intervention risks</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/boj-policymaker-asada-urges-caution-on-further-rate-hikes-even-as-december-move-remains-firmly-in-play" rel="follow">BOJ policymaker Asada urges caution on further rate hikes even as December move remains firmly in play</a></li><li><a href="/forex/aud-usd-faces-a-make-or-break-test-as-dollar-bulls-turn-up-the-heat" rel="follow">AUD/USD faces a make-or-break test as dollar bulls turn up the heat</a></li><li><a href="/news/uk-september-gdp-beats-expectations-as-resilient-growth-keeps-boe-december-rate-hike-on-track" rel="follow">UK September GDP beats expectations as resilient growth keeps BOE December rate hike on track</a></li><li><a href="/news/uk-q3-gdp-meets-estimates-as-resilient-growth-gives-boe-more-room-to-tackle-inflation" rel="follow">UK Q3 GDP meets estimates as resilient growth gives BOE more room to tackle inflation</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">CHF leads, AUD lags on the day</li><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">10-year Treasury yields up 1.1 bps to 5.00%</li><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Gold down 1.1% to $3,940</li><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">WTI crude oil down 0.8% to $85.84</li><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">European stocks push higher; S&amp;P 500 futures -0.4%</li><li style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Bitcoin down 1.9% to $72,872</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">There wasn't too much action in European morning trade today, as markets are looking fairly mixed and a little more on edge again.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The standout in terms of market moves is in the equities space, with European stocks advancing with the DAX hitting a fresh record high while US futures are stumbling as we head to the Wall Street open later. The latter owes to renewed weakness in tech shares, with Nvidia coming under pressure amid CEO Jensen Huang's alledged affairs. The chipmaker is down by well over 7% in pre-market trading currently, souring the mood among AI-related stocks.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Elsewhere, the dollar is continuing to hold steadier after a modest advance in the day before. EUR/USD is lightly changed but keeping below 1.1100 while USD/JPY briefly flirted with a push towards the 160.00 mark, with the high touching 159.94 before backing off to around 159.70 now.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">This comes as the bond market continues to stay under pressure after the US inflation data earlier in the week. 2-year Treasury yields are seen at 4.76% today with 10-year yields still sticking at 5.00%.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">In terms of data, we did have UK September monthly GDP and the preliminary estimates for Q3 GDP during the session. Both releases reaffirmed a more resilient growth picture in the UK, so that sort of vindicated market expectations for a BOE rate hike in December next. The central bank is very much caught in a battle against stubborn inflation, so the numbers today will allow them to focus more on that as the economy holds up at the end of the third quarter.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">In the commodities space, oil prices are down slightly again with WTI crude retreating by 0.8% to $85.84. Meanwhile, gold prices are staying under pressure as the recovery above $4,000 earlier this week is looking rather short-lived as sellers are attempting to try for a stronger technical break to the downside as we get into the latter stages of the week.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Coming up, we do have US weekly jobless claims to work through in terms of key risk events on the economic calendar. But all else being equal, everyone will have their eyes on Nvidia and how tech shares hold up today. That will have a bigger say on the broader market mood and trading sentiment before we get to the final stretch this week.</p><p></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>India CPI Y/Y 6.09% vs 5.93% expected</li><li>Prior 5.54%</li><li><a href="https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleaseDetail.aspx?PRID=2335416&amp;reg=48&amp;lang=2" rel="follow">Full report</a></li></ul><p>India's CPI rose to 6.09% y/y in October, according to provisional data, pointing to increased price pressures in the economy.&nbsp;The headline inflation rate was higher in rural areas, where prices increased by 6.63% y/y, compared with 5.41% in urban areas.</p><p>Food inflation was a big standout, with the Consumer Food Price Index rising 8.94% y/y in October. Food price increases were relatively broad-based across the country, with rural food inflation reaching 9.09% and urban food inflation standing at 8.68%.</p><p></p><p>The figures highlight the significant contribution of food prices to India's inflationary pressures, with food inflation running well above the headline CPI rate.&nbsp;Overall, the October report points to a challenging inflation environment for the Reserve Bank of India. Given the acceleration in inflation, the market is pricing in a 69% chance of a 25 bps hike at the next RBI meeting, with 31% probabilitiy of a larger 50 bps move.&nbsp;</p><p>The US-Iran war has been a major contributor of inflation&nbsp;through higher crude oil prices, increasing India's import bill and raising transportation, energy and agricultural production costs.</p><p>As a major oil importer, India is particularly vulnerable to prolonged disruptions in the Middle East. Higher energy and fertiliser costs gradually feed into consumer prices, while a weaker rupee also makes imports more expensive. </p><p></p><p></p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, the only highlight was the <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/uk-september-gdp-beats-expectations-as-resilient-growth-keeps-boe-december-rate-hike-on-track/" rel="follow">UK GDP report</a> which beat expectations across the board, keeping a rate hike in December firmly on the table.&nbsp;The monthly GDP rose 0.2% in September, beating expectations of no growth. The services sector led the expansion, while industrial and manufacturing output also outperformed forecasts, despite downward revisions to August figures. </p><p>Overall, the economy grew 0.7% q/q in Q3, matching preliminary estimates, with 9 of 14 services subsectors recording growth. The data points&nbsp;to stronger than expected economic momentum heading into the final quarter of 2026. Traders are pricing in a 76% probability of a rate hike in December, with a total of 87 bps of tightening expected by the end of 2027.</p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Initial Claims are expected at 195K vs 189K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1710K vs 1718K prior. The US labour market has been gradually strengthening throughout the year and might have tightened enough to start putting upward pressure on wage growth.&nbsp;</p><p>Nevertheless, the data today is unlikely to be market-moving because strong figures are already expected. We will likely need a very big miss or beat to trigger a reaction. As a reminder, a rate hike in December is already fully expected after Fed's Waller hawkish remarks, but traders started to debate on the size of the hike after Waller put a 50 bps hike on the table and the US CPI came in higher than expected. At the moment, the probability for a 50 bps hike is at 12%.&nbsp;</p><p>CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS</p><ul><li>14:00 GMT/09:00 ET - Fed's Hammack (hawkish - voter)</li><li>15:00 GMT/10:00 ET - Fed's Barr (neutral - voter)</li><li>15:30 GMT/10:30 ET - ECB's Vujcic (neutral - voter)</li><li>16:15 GMT/11:15 ET - Fed's Goolsbee (hawkish - non voter)</li><li>17:30 GMT/12:30 ET - ECB's Nagel (hawkish - voter)</li><li>18:10 GMT/13:10 ET - Fed's Daly (neutral - non voter)</li><li>18:30 GMT/13:30 ET - Fed's Schmid (hawkish - non voter)</li><li>19:30 GMT/14:30 ET - ECB President Lagarde (neutral - voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.