<p dir="ltr">The survey sends mixed signals for the Australian dollar and rates. Slower activity, job shedding and weaker confidence argue against further tightening. Accelerating output price inflation, running above its long-run average, supports the case for the RBA to stay hawkish. On balance, the inflation detail is likely to matter more to rate pricing, which limits the downside for the Australian dollar and front-end yields from the softer activity numbers. Fuel costs were again cited as a driver of input prices, so the oil price remains an important input to the RBA's inflation outlook. Upcoming official CPI and labour market data will be watched to see whether they confirm the PMI's signals.</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr">Earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/australia-manufacturing-pmi-falls-to-49-6-as-new-orders-drop-for-first-time-since-june" target="_blank" rel="follow">Australia manufacturing PMI falls to 49.6 as new orders drop for first time since June</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr"> Australia's services sector is still growing, but slower demand, falling jobs and rising prices give the RBA the uncomfortable mix it least wants.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>The S&amp;P Global Australia Services PMI eased to 51.9 in September from 53.2, a fourth month of expansion but the slowest in three months.</li><li>The composite PMI slipped to 51.3 from 52.7, with growth confined to services as manufacturing contracted further.</li><li>New business grew at its softest pace in three months, though export orders rose for the first time since April.</li><li>Services employment fell for the first time since May, only the third decline in five years.</li><li>Input cost and output price inflation both accelerated and stayed above long-run averages. Business confidence hit a three-month low.</li></ul><p dir="ltr"> Growth in Australia's services sector slowed to a three-month low in September, according to the S&amp;P Global Australia Services PMI released on Monday. Price pressures intensified, and firms cut staff for the first time since May.</p><p dir="ltr">The seasonally adjusted Services Business Activity Index eased to 51.9 from 53.2 in August. The reading stayed above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction for a fourth straight month, but signalled the slowest rise in activity in three months. The Composite Output Index, which combines services and manufacturing, eased to 51.3 from 52.7. Growth was again confined to services as the contraction in factory output deepened.</p><p dir="ltr">New business continued to grow across the services sector, but at the softest pace of the current three-month run. Export orders rose for the first time since April, though only marginally, which firms credited to business development efforts.</p><p dir="ltr">Softer demand fed through to hiring. Service providers reduced headcounts for the first time in four months, citing slower order growth and cost concerns. The decline was marginal, but S&amp;P Global said it was only the third time in five years that services employment has fallen. With staff numbers down while orders still rose, backlogs of work increased for a third month, though only slightly.</p><p dir="ltr">The inflation picture moved in the opposite direction. Input costs rose on higher fuel, labour and other expenses, with consumer services reporting the sharpest increases, and firms passed more of those costs on to customers. Both input cost and output price inflation accelerated from August and stayed above their long-run averages.</p><p dir="ltr">Business confidence about the next 12 months remained positive but fell to a three-month low, further below its historical average, as some firms voiced concern about the economic outlook.</p><p dir="ltr">S&amp;P Global said faster output price inflation across the private sector suggests consumer prices could stay elevated in coming months, which could keep the Reserve Bank of Australia leaning hawkish. Waning confidence and high prices also point to a risk that services growth fades further. That leaves the RBA balancing a softening economy against stubborn inflation.&nbsp;</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">There's no direct market read-through yet, because officials describe the situation as stable and close contacts have so far tested negative. And we all trust Russian officials, right? RIGHT?</p><p dir="ltr">Unconfirmed health scares can still feed short bursts of risk aversion, especially if social media gets ahead of official findings. The key risk would be confirmation of a transmissible pathogen with spread beyond close contacts, which could weigh on sentiment and lift safe havens. The nearby aluminium plant's mask precaution is worth watching in case the scare starts to disrupt local industry.</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr">Earlier:</p><ul><li>Wuhan, covid, lock downs .... but its too early to link to all that, I hope&nbsp;</li></ul><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr"> A death at a Siberian plague laboratory has Russian officials racing to reassure the public, but until they say what killed the researcher, the rumours will travel faster than the facts.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>A researcher at the Anti-Plague Research Institute in Shelekhov, near Irkutsk, has died after being diagnosed with pneumonia of unknown origin, following a suspected lab accident.</li><li>Health agency Rospotrebnadzor says it is unclear what was released but calls the local situation stable. Buryatia's leader said the 28-year-old woman possibly died of plague.</li><li>Close contacts are under medical supervision with no symptoms and negative tests. Unofficial reports say nearly 200 people are under observation and a maternity hospital is quarantined.</li><li>A former head of Rospotrebnadzor said the infection is most likely not plague and that cold weather would limit any spread.</li><li>The WHO says plague is highly lethal but treatable with antibiotics. Only the pneumonic form spreads easily between people.</li></ul><p dir="ltr"> A researcher at a Russian anti-plague laboratory in Siberia has died after being diagnosed with pneumonia of unknown origin, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/04/europe/russia-laboratory-plague-accident-intl" rel="follow">CNN</a> reported. The death has prompted emergency health measures in the Irkutsk region amid suspicions that a dangerous infection was released in a laboratory accident.</p><p dir="ltr">The incident took place at the Anti-Plague Research Institute in Shelekhov, near the city of Irkutsk, according to Russian state news agency TASS. Rospotrebnadzor, the federal agency responsible for infectious disease, said it remains unclear exactly what was released. It said special measures had been taken in connection with the case of an institute employee but described the epidemiological situation in Irkutsk and Shelekhov as stable.</p><p dir="ltr">The head of the neighbouring republic of Buryatia, Alexei Tsydenov, said the employee, a 28-year-old woman, had possibly died from plague. He stressed there were no plague outbreaks in his region. Irkutsk governor Igor Kobzev urged calm on Friday after an extraordinary meeting of the regional anti-epidemic commission with Russia's chief state doctor, held over what he called a suspected case of a particularly dangerous infection.</p><p dir="ltr">The nearby Irkutsk Aluminum Plant told staff to wear masks as a precaution. Its director also urged calm and said all identified close contacts were under medical supervision, showing no symptoms and testing negative. Unofficial reports, including from independent regional outlet Liudi Baikala, said nearly 200 people had been placed under observation at the Shelekhov hospital where the technician was treated, and that at least one maternity hospital was under quarantine.</p><p dir="ltr">Former Rospotrebnadzor head Gennady Onishchenko said the infection was most likely not plague. Even if it were, he said, colder weather would probably prevent it spreading.</p><p dir="ltr">Plague is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis and takes three forms. Pneumonic plague is the only one that passes easily between people, through respiratory droplets. The World Health Organization says plague has a high fatality rate but can be readily treated with antibiotics and contained with infection-control precautions.</p><p dir="ltr">The case is likely to revive memories of the early days of Covid-19. Back then, speculation that the virus may have leaked from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, became one strand of a fierce debate over the pandemic's origins. That question has never been settled, and the pandemic went on to trigger lockdowns around the world. For now, Russian officials insist the situation is under control. Confirmation of what infected the researcher will be the key test of those assurances.</p><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr">From back in the day ...</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>A heads up for AUD traders, it's a Sydney holiday today. The Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) is open as normal but AUD liqudiity will be somewhat thinned out by Sydney's absence.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>The data agenda has data unlikely to impact too kmuch upon release.&nbsp;</p><p></p><p></p><p>I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>The US employment report gave stock buyers something to cheer about on Friday. Payroll growth missed expectations, earlier months were revised lower and wage growth slowed. The initial reaction was lower Treasury yields, a weaker dollar and higher stocks as traders reduced expectations for another October Fed hike.&nbsp;</p><p>However, the bond market did not hold that move. Yields reversed higher and ended above Thursday’s levels. Stocks were more successful in holding gains, with the Nasdaq 100 closing at a new record. Nvidia and the Nasdaq Composite reached new all-time intraday highs, but neither finished at a record closing level.</p><p>Dollar finishes mostly lower</p><p>The USD ended lower against most major currencies despite the recovery in Treasury yields. The Australian dollar led the gains against the greenback, followed by the British pound and Swiss franc.</p><p>The Canadian dollar was the exception. USDCAD finished higher as lower oil prices provided a less supportive backdrop for the CAD.</p><p>The late-session levels showed:</p><ul><li><p>EURUSD: 1.1257, USD -0.14%.</p></li><li><p>USDJPY: 157.82, USD −0.16%.</p></li><li><p>GBPUSD: 1.3244, USD -0.34%.</p></li><li><p>USDCHF: 0.8283, USD −0.29%.</p></li><li><p>USDCAD: 1.4251, USD +0.23%.</p></li><li><p>AUDUSD: 0.6958, USD -0.42%.</p></li><li><p>NZDUSD: 0.5615, USD -0.21%.</p></li></ul><p>USDJPY illustrated the changing tone. The pair fell to 156.97 during the session but recovered toward 157.82 as yields moved back higher. Dollar sellers had their shot after the data, but could not hold the full decline.</p><p>Treasury yields reverse the post-jobs decline</p><p>The softer employment report initially supported Treasury buying. However, that buying faded, leaving yields higher across the curve</p><ul><li><p>2-year yield: 4.8414%, +5.44 basis points.</p></li><li><p>5-year yield: 5.0733%, +6.83 basis points.</p></li><li><p>10-year yield: 5.2939%, +5.99 basis points.</p></li><li><p>30-year yield: 5.6448%, +4.18 basis points.</p></li></ul><p>The 10-year yield was back near 5.30% after trading toward 5.17% immediately following the report.</p><p>That is an important distinction for traders. The employment data reduced the immediate pressure for further tightening, but the price action showed that it was not enough to sustain a bond rally. Inflation and the broader interest-rate outlook remain concerns.</p><p>US stocks close higher; Nasdaq 100 sets a record</p><p>All the major US indices finished higher, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the percentage gains.</p><ul><li><p>Dow industrial average: 51,182.11, +250.00 points or +0.49%.</p></li><li><p>S&amp;P 500: 7,722.85, +56.39 points or +0.74%.</p></li><li><p>Nasdaq Composite: 27,190.86, +319.27 points or +1.19%.</p></li><li><p>Russell 2000: 2,832.90, +26.27 points or +0.94%.</p></li><li><p>Nasdaq 100: 30,807.93, +306.37 points or +1.00%, a new record close.</p></li></ul><p>The Nasdaq Composite reached a new intraday high but finished below its previous record closing level near 27,244. The Nasdaq 100 held enough of its advance to secure a new all-time closing high.</p><p>Technology leads, but some record attempts fall short</p><p>Technology was a clear source of strength, with both Nasdaq indices outperforming the Dow and S&amp;P 500. Nvidia also traded to a new all-time intraday high, although it pulled back and finished below its previous record close.</p><p>The softer jobs and wage numbers helped ease concerns about additional Fed restraint. Nevertheless, the recovery in yields created a less favorable backdrop later in the session.</p><p>Small caps participated as well, with the Russell 2000 gaining 0.94%. The buying extended beyond the largest technology names, even as some of the record attempts fell short at the close.</p><p>European stocks rebound Friday, finish lower for the week</p><p>European equities closed higher on Friday, but the gains did not erase the weekly losses.</p><ul><li><p>German DAX: 25,222.05, +282.69 points or +1.13%. For the week, −0.73%.</p></li><li><p>France CAC: 7,897.20, +61.88 points or +0.79%. For the week, −2.24%.</p></li><li><p>UK FTSE 100: 10,461.94, +33.68 points or +0.32%. For the week, −2.18%.</p></li><li><p>Spain Ibex: 19,085.31, +80.01 points or +0.42%. For the week, −3.12%.</p></li><li><p>Italy FTSE MIB: 50,483.22, +245.36 points or +0.49%. For the week, −2.67%.</p></li></ul><p>European benchmark 10-year yields declined across the board on Friday. The weekly picture was more mixed: Germany’s yield fell 14.6 basis points, the UK’s fell 6.8 basis points and Spain’s declined 1.2 basis points. French and Italian yields rose 2.7 and 2.2 basis points, respectively, widening their spreads versus Germany.</p><p>Employment growth slows; wages also disappoint</p><p>The September jobs report was soft across several key measures:</p><ul><li><p>Nonfarm payrolls: +29,000 versus +90,000 expected.</p></li><li><p>August payrolls: Revised to +133,000 from +162,000.</p></li><li><p>Combined revisions to July and August: −60,000.</p></li><li><p>Unemployment rate: 4.2% versus 4.1% expected and previously.</p></li><li><p>Average hourly earnings: +0.1% for the month versus +0.3% expected.</p></li><li><p>Annual wage growth: 3.0% versus 3.2% expected.</p></li><li><p>Private payrolls: +46,000.</p></li><li><p>Government payrolls: −17,000.</p></li></ul><p>Hiring was concentrated. Private education and health services added 20,000 jobs, construction added 11,000 and manufacturing added 9,000. Information, financial activities, and professional and business services all lost jobs.</p><p>Over July–September, payroll growth averaged approximately 51,000 per month. Education and health services, construction and manufacturing together added more jobs than the overall payroll increase, with weakness elsewhere pulling down the total.</p><p>There were some offsets. Household employment rose 406,000, while the labor force expanded by 485,000. Participation increased to 61.8%, helping explain the rise in unemployment. Average weekly hours held at 34.4, offering little evidence of aggressive cuts to working hours.</p><p>The immediate market reaction pushed October hike probabilities toward 15%–16%. However, those were post-release readings, and the later rebound in yields showed that the broader rate debate remained open.</p><p>Goolsbee keeps the focus on inflation</p><p><a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fed-s-goolsbee-labor-market-is-steady-inflation-side-of-fed-s-job-is-more-important/" rel="follow">Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee</a> described the labor market as steady and said inflation was the more pressing part of the Fed’s mandate. He left both a hike and a pause available, while looking for evidence that inflation is moving toward 2%.</p><p>For traders, the message is that one softer employment report does not settle the policy outlook. Slower wages are encouraging, but policymakers still want progress on inflation.</p><p>Oil recovers after stockpile headlines push prices lower</p><p>Oil fell sharply earlier after announcements of European crude and diesel stockpile releases. French President Emmanuel Macron outlined releases over four months, with G7 leaders confirming up to 100 million barrels. President Trump also said European diesel releases would begin immediately.</p><p>However, sellers could not sustain the move below the $88.72 floor. The price recovered much of its earlier decline, with the late-session WTI futures snapshot showing $91.41, down $1.46 or 1.57%.</p><p>Additional supply can ease near-term price pressure, but the rebound showed that sellers could not maintain control at the lows. Middle East developments and the broader supply outlook remain important for both energy prices and inflation expectations.</p><p>Gold and silver decline despite the weaker dollar</p><p>Precious metals failed to benefit sufficiently from the broadly weaker dollar:</p><ul><li><p>Spot gold: $4,142.55, −$34.84 or −0.83%.</p></li><li><p>Silver: $60.509, −$0.4395 or −0.72%.</p></li></ul><p>The recovery in Treasury yields was a headwind for gold. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays no interest, helping explain why gold struggled despite the dollar’s decline.</p><p>Silver also moved lower, while copper gained 0.69%, highlighting the different influences across the metals.</p><p>Bitcoin does not follow stocks higher</p><p>Bitcoin traded near $84,166, down $687 or 0.81% near the end of day.</p><p>The gains in equities and weaker dollar did not translate into sustained buying in Bitcoin (<a href="https://investinglive.com/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-sellers-defend-87-334-key-support-comes-into-focus-ahead-of-the-weekend/" rel="follow">click here for a technical look</a>). The late rise in yields provided a less supportive backdrop, but Friday’s main observation was straightforward: stock-market strength did not carry through to crypto.</p><p>Next week: Be aware. Be prepared.</p><p><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/week-ahead-ism-services-fed-minutes-and-canadian-jobs-lead-the-economic-calendar-be-aware/" rel="follow">Next week’s calendar</a> features US ISM services on Monday, Fed minutes on Wednesday, ECB meeting accounts on Thursday, and Canadian employment and University of Michigan sentiment on Friday. Inflation expectations in the Michigan survey will deserve attention.</p><p>Stock buyers head into the weekend with gains and a Nasdaq 100 record close. However, elevated Treasury yields, the retreat from Nvidia’s and the Nasdaq Composite’s intraday records, and oil’s recovery from its lows leave some unfinished business.</p><p>The first move after the news gives traders information. Whether that move can hold tells us more. Friday’s bond market was a good reminder of that.</p><p>It’s a wrap.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>The new trading week brings a lighter economic calendar, but there are still several events that can move currencies and yields. The main highlights are Monday’s U.S. ISM services report, Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes, Thursday’s ECB monetary policy accounts, and Friday’s Canadian employment and U.S. consumer sentiment reports.</p><p>For traders, the question is whether the incoming data show growth holding up while price pressures remain elevated, or whether the economy is losing enough momentum to change the policy outlook.</p><p>All times below are U.S. Eastern. Forecasts reflect the calendar available on October 2 and may change.</p><p>Monday, October 5: Services activity gets the first look</p><ul><li><p>10:00 a.m. — U.S. ISM services PMI for September: Expected at 55.1, versus 55.4 previously.</p></li><li><p>Other releases include the final services PMIs for the eurozone, UK and U.S., along with eurozone producer prices.</p></li></ul><p>The ISM report is the first major U.S. test of the week. Traders will want to look beyond the headline and focus on new orders, employment and prices paid.</p><p>A reading above 50 signals expansion. However, the mix matters. Solid activity with elevated prices would suggest continued inflation pressure. Slower orders and weaker employment would tell a different story.</p><p>For the dollar, watch whether Treasury yields confirm the initial reaction. A stronger headline may get buyers interested, but the details need to support that move.</p><p>Tuesday, October 6: Trade and European demand</p><ul><li><p>2:00 a.m. — German factory orders for August. Est -1.0% vs 2.5% last month</p></li><li><p>4:30 a.m. — UK construction PMI. Est 45.0 vs 44.3 last month</p></li><li><p>5:00 a.m. — Eurozone retail sales for August. Est 0.3% vs -0.6% last month</p></li><li><p>8:30 a.m. — U.S. and Canadian trade balances for August. US Trade deficit is expected to show a larger trade deficit of -$95.2B vs -88.6B last month.&nbsp; Canada is expected to show a trade surplus of 1.3B vs 0.8B last month</p></li><li><p>10:00 a.m. — Canada’s Ivey PMI.</p></li></ul><p>The European releases will offer another check on business demand and household spending. German orders are especially useful for assessing the pipeline of future manufacturing activity.</p><p>In North America, the trade reports provide information on exports, imports and the contribution of trade to growth. A narrower deficit is not automatically a sign of stronger demand. Traders need to see whether it reflects rising exports or falling imports. The trade balance in the US is Goods and Services. The US has a trade deficit with goods, but maintains a trade surplus with services.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Canada’s Ivey PMI adds an activity reading ahead of Friday’s employment report.</p><p>Wednesday, October 7: Fed minutes take center stage</p><ul><li><p>2:00 a.m. — German industrial production for August. Est 0.5% vs -1.1% last month</p></li><li><p>10:30 a.m. — U.S. weekly crude oil inventories.</p></li><li><p>1:01 p.m. — U.S. 10-year Treasury auction.</p></li><li><p>2:00 p.m. — FOMC minutes from the September 15–16 meeting.</p></li><li><p>3:00 p.m. — U.S. consumer credit for August.</p></li></ul><p>The Fed minutes are the week’s main U.S. central bank event. Traders will look for the balance of concern between inflation and employment, the degree of agreement among policymakers, and the conditions that could justify another policy move.</p><p>There is an important timing issue: the minutes describe September’s discussion and will not include the employment data released on October 2. Their value is in showing the Fed’s thinking at that meeting. Traders then have to judge how the newer data fit that framework.</p><p>The Treasury auction also deserves attention. Strong or weak demand can move yields ahead of the minutes and influence the dollar’s reaction.</p><p>Thursday, October 8: ECB accounts and U.S. jobless claims</p><ul><li><p>7:30 a.m. — ECB monetary policy meeting accounts.</p></li><li><p>8:30 a.m. — U.S. initial jobless claims: Expected at 200,000, versus 197,000 previously.</p></li><li><p>10:00 a.m. — Final U.S. wholesale inventories for August. Est 0.7% vs 0.7% last month</p></li><li><p>1:01 p.m. — U.S. 30-year Treasury auction.</p></li></ul><p>The ECB accounts should give euro traders more detail on policymakers’ assessment of inflation and growth. The key is whether the discussion points toward greater urgency to tighten policy or more caution about the economic outlook.</p><p>In the U.S., jobless claims provide a timely follow-up to the monthly employment report. One week does not establish a trend, but a sustained rise would be more meaningful.</p><p>The 30-year auction will provide another test of demand at the longer end of the Treasury curve.</p><p>Friday, October 9: Canadian jobs and U.S. inflation expectations</p><ul><li><p>8:30 a.m. — Canadian employment for September: Expected to rise 9,500.</p></li><li><p>Canadian unemployment rate: Expected at 6.5%, versus 6.4% previously.</p></li><li><p>10:00 a.m. — Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment for October: Expected at 48.1, unchanged from September.</p></li></ul><p>Canada’s jobs report is the main domestic event for the CAD. Traders should examine full-time versus part-time employment, participation and wage growth alongside the headline job change.</p><p>A stronger report could support the Canadian dollar and pressure USDCAD lower. A weaker report could have the opposite effect, depending on the broader U.S. dollar and oil backdrop.</p><p>For the Michigan survey, inflation expectations may matter as much as sentiment. A rise in expected inflation would complicate the policy outlook, particularly if confidence remains weak.</p><p>What matters for traders</p><p>The calendar gives traders the scheduled catalysts. The price action tells us whether buyers or sellers can take control.</p><p>Before the major releases, identify the nearby swing areas, moving averages and retracement levels. After the data, watch whether the price can break—and stay—beyond those levels. An initial move that quickly reverses can be just as useful as a break that holds.</p><p>Looking one week further ahead, U.S. CPI is scheduled for Wednesday, October 14, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Next week’s releases will help shape positioning ahead of that inflation report.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior month factory orders 0.8% down from 0.9% previously</li></ul><p></p><ul><li>Factory orders: +0.1% vs +0.1% expected. Prior +0.9% revised to 0.8%.</li><li>Factory orders excluding transportation: +0.3%. Prior +0.7%.</li><li>Durable goods orders: revised to −0.1% from 0.0% initially reported.</li><li>Durable goods excluding transportation: revised to +0.2% from +0.3%.</li><li>Durable goods excluding defense: revised to 0.0% from +0.1%.</li><li>Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft: +1.6%, unchanged from the preliminary reading.</li></ul><p>US factory orders increased 0.1% in August, matching expectations but slowing from July’s 0.9% gain, according to the supplied release table. Orders excluding transportation increased 0.3%, down from 0.6% in the prior month.</p><p>The durable goods revisions were modestly softer. Overall orders were revised to a 0.1% decline, while orders excluding transportation were trimmed to a 0.2% gain. However, the closely watched measure of business equipment investment plans—nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft—held onto its 1.6% increase. That is the stronger detail beneath an otherwise subdued headline.</p><p>Quick analysis: The headline met expectations, giving traders little surprise to work with. Slower overall order growth and softer durable goods revisions suggest more restrained manufacturing demand, but the solid increase in core capital goods orders provides an offset. Taken alone, the report offers limited reason to materially change Fed expectations or the outlook for the dollar and Treasury yields.</p><p>What this report measures: The Census Bureau’s factory orders report tracks the monthly, seasonally adjusted dollar value of new orders for manufactured goods, including durable and nondurable products. Traders monitor orders for clues about future production, while capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft help gauge business equipment investment plans.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett discussed the US jobs report and the administration’s economic outlook on Bloomberg TV:</p><ul><li>The jobs report was broadly in line with expectations, and the data point to a very strong consumer.</li><li>He expects a strong holiday shopping season.</li><li>The administration respects the Federal Reserve’s independence.</li><li>He attributes higher bond yields to the strength of the economy.</li><li>The government’s current interest payments are unacceptably high.</li><li>President Trump is committed to reducing the deficit.</li><li>The administration does not want to use inflation to reduce the real value of its debt.</li><li>He described the situation between Fed Chair Warsh and Powell as unusual.</li></ul><p>Analysis: Hassett’s message is upbeat of course. The White House sees consumers continuing to spend and expects that strength to carry into the holiday season. He is also presenting higher yields as a reflection of a strong economy.</p><p>The challenge is that higher yields also make the government’s debt more expensive to finance. Reducing the deficit would help address that burden, but traders will want to see the policies behind the promise. For the economy, the key question is whether consumer spending can remain strong if job creation stays subdued and yields move higher.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2"><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-august-non-farm-payrolls-vs-56k-expected/" rel="follow">Prior </a>was +162K (revised to +133K)</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Two-month net revision -60K</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.1% expected</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Prior unemployment rate 4.1%</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Unrounded unemployment&nbsp;4.1753% vs 4.1413% prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Participation rate 61.8% vs 61.6% prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">U6 underemployment rate 7.6% vs 7.7% prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Average hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Average hourly earnings 3.0% y/y vs +3.2% expected</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.3 expected</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Change in private payrolls +46K&nbsp; vs +85K expected</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Prior private payrolls +127K</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Change in manufacturing payrolls K vs +10K expected</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Government payrolls -17K vs +35K prior</li></ul><p>This is a soft report almost across the board. The headline missed badly, the unemployment rate ticked higher and wage growth was much softer than expected. On top of that, the prior two months were revised down by a combined 60K, with July now showing a 10K decline in payrolls</p><p>Fed funds pricing was at a 28% chance of a rate hike ahead of the data and USD/JPY was trading at 157.60. US 2-year yields were at 4.78% with 10s at 5.23%. In the immediate aftermath of the report, Fed funds is down to 15% with USD/JPY at 157.15, 2s at 4.72% and 10s at 5.17%. Notably, December is now up for debate at just an 88% chance of any hikes this year.</p><p>As you can see from the market reaction, this is a dovish report and closes the debate on an October rate hike barring a red-hot CPI reading.&nbsp;The one significant offset is the household survey. Employment there rose by 406K and the labor force expanded by 485K, lifting the participation rate two-tenths to 61.8%. That's why I wouldn't characterize the rise in unemployment to 4.2% as particularly ugly. The unrounded rate was 4.1753%, so it was also only narrowly above the threshold for a 4.2% print.</p><p>Non-farm payrolls:</p><p></p><p>The wage numbers are arguably the most important part for the Fed and they're clearly soft. Average hourly earnings rose just 5 cents, or 0.1%, in September and the year-over-year pace slipped to 3.0%. Hours held up at 34.4, so there isn't much evidence of companies aggressively cutting worker hours, but wage pressure is moving in the right direction from an inflation perspective.</p><p>In terms of sectors, there isn't one big distortion explaining away the weakness. Healthcare added 17K, including +13K in ambulatory care and +12K in hospitals, though nursing and residential care lost 9K. Construction added 11K, with non-residential specialty trade contractors up 12K. Manufacturing added another 9K and has now gained 72K since its December 2025 low.</p><p>On the weak side, financial activities lost 7K and has now shed 129K jobs since May 2025, mostly in insurance. Government employment fell 17K, while professional and business services was down 9K and information fell 10K. Unlike August, there isn't a huge education or restaurant seasonal quirk propping up the headline.</p><p>I'd characterize the 29K headline as legitimately weak rather than a number that can easily be explained away by composition. Private payrolls were only +46K, revisions took another 60K out of the prior two months and earnings badly missed expectations</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="/news/us-jobs-report-faces-a-higher-bar-as-bond-market-tensions-raise-the-stakes" rel="follow">US jobs report faces a higher bar as bond market tensions raise the stakes</a></li><li><a href="/news/what-is-the-distribution-of-forecasts-for-the-us-nfp-1" rel="follow">What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/stocks-rebound-as-bond-yields-cool-but-nfp-threatens-to-reset-the-mood" rel="follow">Stocks rebound as bond yields cool, but NFP threatens to reset the mood</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-this-week-s-events-5" rel="follow">How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?</a></li><li><a href="/news/eurozone-inflation-jumps-to-3-8-in-september-as-energy-prices-surge" rel="follow">Eurozone inflation jumps to 3.8% in September as energy prices surge</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/ecb-policymaker-rehn-flags-energy-and-ai-risks-as-rate-outlook-stays-uncertain" rel="follow">ECB policymaker Rehn flags energy and AI risks as rate outlook stays uncertain</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/gold-price-consolidates-below-4-200-as-markets-turn-to-nfp-next" rel="follow">Gold price consolidates below $4,200 as markets turn to NFP next</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/gold-finds-support-as-dovish-fed-comments-signal-low-appetite-for-tightening" rel="follow">Gold finds support as dovish Fed comments signal low appetite for tightening</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/silver-s-selloff-pauses-as-key-fed-members-push-back-against-october-rate-hike-bets" rel="follow">Silver's selloff pauses as key Fed members push back against October rate hike bets</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-breaks-out-of-the-range-as-fed-s-jefferson-comments-reduce-rate-hike-expectations-further" rel="follow">Bitcoin breaks out of the range as Fed's Jefferson comments reduce rate hike expectations further</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>10-year Treasury yields -1.6 bps to 5.22%</li><li>CHF leads, EUR lags on the day</li><li>Gold +0.1% to $4,180</li><li>WTI crude -3.6% to $89.50</li><li>European stocks higher; S&amp;P 500 futures +0.4%</li><li>Bitcoin +2.2% to $86,511</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">It's all about the US jobs report today. And as we gear towards the main event, broader markets are looking calmer in European morning trade.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The bond market continues to be the main driver and today, we are seeing yields fall back as investors await fresh clues from the non-farm payrolls before deciding on the next move.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">10-year Treasury yields are down to 5.22%, well off the high yesterday of 5.34% - which was the highest level since 2002. In Europe, 10-year German bund yields have also cooled to 3.40% - holding much lower compared to the high earlier this week of 3.65%.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">That is affording equities some breathing room as we see European stocks bounce back, with US futures also building on the rebound from yesterday. The DAX is up by 0.9% and CAC 40 up by 0.5%, while S&amp;P 500 futures are up 0.4% ahead of the open.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Lower borrowing costs is helping to provide stocks with a lift, alongside softer inflation worries as oil prices also drop on the day. WTI crude is down by over 3% to $89.50 as traders continue to weigh the situation in the Middle East in what has been a back and forth week for oil prices.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">In terms of data, we had euro area September inflation come in hot as the headline figure runs up to 3.8%. The core estimate also nudged higher to 2.5% in September from 2.4% in August, but the mild acceleration is still something that the ECB might be able to look past for now ahead of their October decision. Market pricing still shows just roughly 28% odds of a 25 bps rate hike for this month, not much changed from before the release.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">In other markets, the dollar is keeping more mixed on the day with EUR/USD being pushed lower to 1.1225 while USD/JPY is also slightly down to 157.68 today. Meanwhile, gold is keeping a mild bounce at $4,180 as the precious metal continues to consolidate just below the $4,200 mark.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">It's now over to the US jobs report to answer the question of whether the broader market relief we're seeing will hold - or if the bond vigilantes will return and unleash havoc before the weekend.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p>It's the final countdown to the September non-farm payrolls report.&nbsp;</p><p>Take a look at:</p><p><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/preview-september-non-farm-payrolls-by-the-numbers/" rel="follow">Preview: September non-farm payrolls by the numbers</a></p><p>That report highlights the seasonals around this number, which could make it a volatile one. Fed pricing is down to 7.1 bps for this month, which maps to 28%. That could swing on today's report and the wage numbers in particular. Yesterday's high prices paid in the manufacturing ISM briefly got the market's attention.</p><p>Today oil is down on European reserve release talk as Trump tries to arm-twist those leaders into boosting his midterms chances. Mostly, markets are upbeat in the lead-up to the release with S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.4%. That's largely a result of lower oil and isn't being helped by a drop in Nike shares after another dismal earnings report from that company.</p><p>In FX, USD/JPY is down 40 pips to 157.64. After the curious move lower yesterday, eyes will be on intervention as we get closer to the weekend. Elsewhere, the FX moves are small.</p><p>Good luck.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Eurozone September preliminary CPI +3.8% vs +3.6% y/y expected</li><li>Prior +3.2%</li><li>Eurozone September preliminary core CPI +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expected</li><li>Prior +2.4%</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The breakdownThe headline estimate reaffirms that inflation continues to surge higher in the euro area at the end of the third quarter. That is largely driven by energy prices, which jumped by 18.8% in September compared to the 14.3% rise in the month before.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Besides that, there were also increases in food and services inflation. Food, alcohol and tobacco prices rose 1.4% on the year, up from 1.1% in August. Meanwhile, services inflation picked up to 3.2% in September from 3.0% in the month before. The latter is more important when looking at underlying price pressures, helping to push core inflation slightly higher to 2.5%.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">For the ECB, it reinforces the argument that policymakers cannot afford to assume the inflation problem is under control just yet. The central bank is already&nbsp;facing an uncomfortable combination of higher inflation and tighter financial conditions, with bond yields having risen sharply in recent weeks.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">And so the headline rate&nbsp;closing in on 4% is hardly comforting. But the main question will continue to be whether&nbsp;the energy shock remains largely contained or starts feeding more meaningfully into core prices and services over the coming months.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">What does the data measure?The CPI measures changes in the prices consumers pay for goods and services across the euro area. The headline figure includes all categories, while core inflation strips out volatile food and energy prices to give a clearer indication of underlying price pressures.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Why does it matter to markets?Inflation is one of the ECB’s most important inputs when setting interest rates at this juncture. With Eurozone inflation already above the ECB’s 2% target and energy prices rising sharply, markets are watching closely for signs that the shock is starting to spread beyond energy into services, wages and other underlying prices.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">How does this fit the broader economic picture?The September report comes against a backdrop of much stronger energy-driven inflation across the euro area. Preliminary national readings showed HICP inflation accelerating to 3.3% in Germany, 3.4% in France, 4.1% in Italy and 5.0% in Spain, while core pressures have so far remained comparatively contained. At the same time, higher bond yields are tightening financial conditions and creating an uncomfortable mix of stronger inflation but greater downside risks to growth.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">What is the potential market impact?A stronger-than-expected reading, particularly in core inflation, could reinforce expectations for further ECB tightening. That should push European bond yields higher and offer some support to the euro, while higher rate expectations could weigh on equities; vice versa.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Current relevance to markets?Very high. Markets are already repricing the ECB outlook amid the renewed inflation shock and a sharp rise in European yields. The bigger market-moving question will be whether core inflation also starts accelerating, which would make it harder for the ECB to treat the current episode as primarily an energy shock.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">Non-Farm Payrolls</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">35K to 180K range of estimates</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">60K-100K range most clustered</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">90K consensus</li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">Unemployment Rate</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">4.2% (20%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">4.1% (70%) - consensus</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">4.0% (10%)</li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">3.4% (3%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">3.2% (52%) - consensus</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">3.1% (36%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">3.0% (9%) </li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">Average Hourly Earnings M/M</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.4% (2%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.3% (65%) - consensus</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.2% (31%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.1% (2%)</li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">Although the NFP report is generally one of the most market-moving economic releases, the US CPI has been more important because the Fed has been focusing on it. </p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">Today's release might be even less important because Fed's Williams and Fed's Jefferson have already poured cold water on expectations of a rate hike in October, so we will likely need a blockbuster report to raise the probabilities again.&nbsp;</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">As expected or weaker than expected data, on the other hand, might not change much in the bigger picture, because the totality of the US jobs data has been strong, but it might further reduce the odds for an October hike in the short-term.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, we get the Eurozone Flash CPI report. The headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.6% vs 3.2% prior, while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.5% vs 2.4% prior. Given the recent ECB commentary, we will likely need an upside surprise for the central bank to consider a rate hike in October. An in-line or even lower than expected figures will give the ECB enough reasons to keep the policy rate steady.</p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, we have the US NFP report. The NFP is expected at 90K vs 162K prior, while the unemployment rate is seen remaining unchanged at 4.1%. The Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 3.2% vs 3.1% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.3% prior.&nbsp;</p><p>The expectations for a rate hike in October have fallen to 23% following the dovish comments from Fed's&nbsp;Williams and Fed's Jefferson. This shows once again that there's low appetite for too much tightening at the Fed, so we would need a blockbuster NFP report to lift October probabilities again. </p><p>Weak data might not change much in the bigger picture because the totality of the US jobs data has been strong, but it might further reduce the odds for an October hike in the short-term.</p><p>CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS</p><ul><li>07:00 GMT/03:00 ET - ECB's Moulin (neutral - voter)</li><li>07:30 GMT/03:30 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)</li><li>11:30 GMT/07:30 ET - ECB's Vujcic (neutral - voter)</li><li>14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - Fed's Logan (hawkish - voter)</li><li>19:35 GMT/15:35 ET - ECB's Nagel (hawkish - voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Welcome to another edition of NFP Friday. Typically, the US jobs report starts off with one question for markets. And that is how many jobs did the economy add during the month?</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">But this time around, I would argue the bar is a little higher than that.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Markets are heading into Friday's non-farm payrolls report with inflation concerns already running hot, and yesterday's <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-september-ism-manufacturing-54-5-vs-55-0-expected/" rel="follow">ISM manufacturing report</a> didn't exactly help with that. While the&nbsp;headline index held steady at 54.5,&nbsp;it was the surge in prices paid from 71.1 to 77.9 that really caught the eye.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">As such, it puts a&nbsp;slightly different complexion ahead of the jobs report later today.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The non-farm payrolls figure is&nbsp;expected to rise by around 90K in September, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. But unless we get a sizeable surprise there, wages&nbsp;could arguably prove more important for markets. Average hourly earnings growth is expected&nbsp;at 0.3% on the month and 3.2% year-on-year.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The way I would frame things now is that markets will no longer just be asking whether the labour market is strong. Instead, they'll be asking&nbsp;whether it is inflationary.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">That sort of distinction matters when Treasury yields are already sitting at rather uncomfortable levels after the surge of the past few weeks. 10-year yields briefly surged to 5.34% yesterday, the highest level since 2002,&nbsp;before buyers stepped back in and pulled yields lower.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">While the retreat does offer broader markets some relief,&nbsp;I wouldn't say the bond market has escaped the danger just yet.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">A hotter wage print alongside resilient payrolls could quickly revive the argument for another Fed rate hike and threaten another breakout in yields. And that's the sort of combination that could rattle broader markets and send another round of shockwaves through equities, the dollar, and gold.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Taking all of that into consideration, I would argue that&nbsp;softer payrolls alone might not be enough to settle things if wages remain sticky.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">That is what makes the reaction function to the jobs report today slightly different. As is always the case,&nbsp;the payrolls number will still grab the first headline. But with markets increasingly sensitive to inflation and long-end yields already testing the limits, the wage numbers could very well have the bigger say in whether the bond market calms down ahead of the weekend - or if it starts boiling over again.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

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The US dollar remained firm after the dollar index touched its highest level since May 2025 overnight, though the Australian and New Zealand dollars held their ground. Gold slipped to around $4,140 an ounce before recovering, while oil prices barely moved after Brent settled above $102 on Thursday on China's fuel export halt and reports of further US troop deployments to the Middle East.</p><p dir="ltr">Japan</p><p dir="ltr">Tokyo inflation surged in September. Core CPI rose 2.7% from a year earlier, well above the 2.4% forecast and the fastest pace in 10 months, while the measure excluding fresh food and energy jumped to 3.0%. Services inflation also picked up, strengthening the case for another Bank of Japan rate hike, with the next policy meeting on October 29-30. Japan's unemployment rate edged up to 2.5% in August.</p><p dir="ltr">Government ministers struck a tone consistent with tighter policy. Economy Minister Kiuchi said Japan, no longer in deflation, has no need for excessively loose monetary policy, while Finance Minister Katayama said she would drastically streamline about 200 idle government funds worth roughly 7 trillion yen as part of a DOGE-style spending review.</p><p dir="ltr">Fed and rates</p><p dir="ltr">The debate over how far the Federal Reserve needs to tighten remained live. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said rates need to rise by at least another 50 basis points, while Goldman Sachs pushed its forecast for the next hike to December and said there is a strong chance no further increases are needed. US 10-year Treasury yields had touched their highest since 2002 on Thursday before easing. UBS said it sees market pricing for nearly four more hikes as too aggressive.</p><p dir="ltr">Region</p><p dir="ltr">New Zealand consumer confidence edged down to 97.6 in September, with weekly data showing sentiment fading as oil prices spiked mid-month. South Korea's exports jumped about 84% from a year earlier, but MUFG said Asian currencies remain driven by US yields and the dollar ahead of payrolls.</p><p dir="ltr">Mainland Chinese markets remain closed for Golden Week until October 8, and Hong Kong reopened without Stock Connect flows. India's markets are shut for Gandhi Jayanti and reopen on Monday.</p><p dir="ltr">Energy</p><p dir="ltr">Diesel supply remains in focus after the US told Germany and France to release emergency stocks or face a potential US export ban. EU energy officials are due to discuss the issue on Friday.</p><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">Kiuchi's remarks reduce the risk of government pushback against further BOJ tightening, which is likely to be read as supportive of an earlier rate hike, coming on the same day <a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/tokyo-core-cpi-jumps-to-2-7-fastest-in-10-months-strengthening-boj-rate-hike-case/" rel="follow">Tokyo core inflation jumped</a> to 2.7%. That could add to upward pressure on short-dated JGB yields and offer the yen some support. Katayama's fund review is modest relative to Japan's budget, but signals fiscal discipline at a time when global bond markets are punishing perceived fiscal looseness. Energy costs from the Iran war remain the main external inflation driver for Japan, so higher oil would reinforce the case both ministers appear comfortable with.</p><p dir="ltr">--- Tokyo is trimming idle funds and telling the BOJ it no longer needs to keep the stimulus taps open, a striking turn from the reflationist decade.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>Finance Minister Katayama will step up a Japanese version of DOGE to review subsidies and government funds</li><li>She said about 200 idle funds worth roughly 7 trillion yen will be drastically streamlined in the budget process</li><li>Economy Minister Kiuchi declined to comment on monetary policy, saying it is for the BOJ, but hopes for close communication with the government</li><li>Kiuchi said Japan no longer needs extraordinary stimulus and, being out of deflation, has no need for excessively loose policy</li><li>He said the Takaichi administration's approach differs from earlier reflationist policy</li><li>The BOJ meets on October 29-30, after raising rates to 1.25% in September</li></ul><p dir="ltr">--- Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has pledged to step up a review of government subsidies and funds modelled on the US Department of Government Efficiency, while Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi said Japan no longer needs excessively loose monetary policy now that it has escaped deflation.</p><p dir="ltr">Katayama said she would strengthen efforts to promote a Japanese version of DOGE, the cost-cutting initiative launched under President Donald Trump, applying it to subsidies and government funds. She said the government would drastically streamline idle funds as part of the budget process, noting there are about 200 such funds holding roughly 7 trillion yen.</p><p dir="ltr">The push to reclaim unused money comes as investors pay close attention to fiscal positions, with sovereign bond yields rising globally and concerns about government borrowing feeding into long-dated debt markets.</p><p dir="ltr">Kiuchi, speaking separately, declined to comment directly on monetary policy, saying it falls under the jurisdiction of the Bank of Japan, but said he hopes the central bank continues to communicate closely with the government as it guides policy.</p><p dir="ltr">He went on to set out the government's broader stance. In his view, Japan no longer requires extraordinary monetary stimulus, as shown by the BOJ's earlier decision to end yield curve control. With the economy out of deflation, he said there is no need for excessively loose policy that favours higher inflation, and he described Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's economic approach as distinct from the reflationist policies that sought to pull Japan out of deflation.</p><p dir="ltr">The comments are notable because they signal government comfort with a less accommodative policy setting at a time when the BOJ is tightening. The central bank raised its policy rate to 1.25%, a 31-year high, in September, and <a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/tokyo-core-cpi-jumps-to-2-7-fastest-in-10-months-strengthening-boj-rate-hike-case/" rel="follow">Tokyo inflation data released on Friday</a> showed core prices rising 2.7% in September, above the BOJ's 2% target, with a key underlying measure hitting 3%.</p><p dir="ltr">The BOJ's next policy meeting on October 29-30, when it will also publish new quarterly forecasts, will show whether the combination of firmer inflation and a supportive government stance brings the next rate hike forward.</p><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>Just the data in this post. I'll have more to come on this separately, analysis and implications etc.&nbsp;</p><p></p><p>Japan Tokyo CPI (Sep YY) </p><p>Headline 2.7% </p><ul><li>expected 2.5%, prior&nbsp;1.9% </li></ul><p> Core 2.7%</p><ul><li>expected 2.4%, prior&nbsp;1.8%</li></ul><p>CPI Ex Food and Energy 3.0% </p><ul><li>expected 2.5%, prior&nbsp;2.0%</li></ul><p>Japan Jobs/applications ratio (August data) 1.18 </p><ul><li>expected 1.18, prior 1.18</li></ul><p>Unemployment Rate (August) 2.5%</p><ul><li>expected 2.4%, prior 2.4%</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">Hong Kong's stock market reopens on Friday, October 2, after closing on Thursday for National Day, but mainland China's markets remain shut for the rest of the week-long holiday and will not resume trading until Thursday, October 8.</p><p dir="ltr">The Hong Kong exchange trades at its usual hours on Friday, 09:30 to 12:00 and 13:00 to 16:00 local time, and again on October 5, 6 and 7. Those four sessions will run without Stock Connect, the program linking the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets. HKEX's Stock Connect calendar shows Northbound and Southbound trading suspended from October 1 to 7, as the link only operates when both markets are open, with normal operation resuming on October 8.</p><p dir="ltr">That leaves China-focused and dual-listed shares in Hong Kong trading without mainland participation, which may mean thinner, more offshore-driven liquidity.</p><p dir="ltr">The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges are closed for the full seven days. The Shanghai Composite ended Wednesday, the last session before the break, up circa 0.3% at around 3,840.</p><p dir="ltr">Futures and gold markets in Shanghai are also closed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange, the China Financial Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange reopen on October 8 and will stay shut on Saturday, October 10, a make-up working day for offices, since exchanges do not trade on weekends. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will resume night trading on the evening of October 8.</p><p dir="ltr">With onshore markets closed, the offshore yuan carries price discovery with less depth than usual, and traders lose Chinese futures price signals for the week, as I noted in my <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/what-china-s-golden-week-closures-mean-for-the-yuan-futures-and-asian-liquidity/" rel="follow">earlier piece</a>. Any news during the holiday will be priced offshore first, raising the risk of catch-up moves when mainland markets reopen on October 8. The scale of the People's Bank of China's liquidity operations around the holiday will also be watched for signs of how funding conditions look when markets return.&nbsp;</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">The survey adds little to lift the New Zealand dollar, which has fallen to its lowest level in 11 months over the past 24 hours. Softer headline inflation expectations would ordinarily ease pressure on the RBNZ, but the late-month rise in expectations as oil climbed is the more relevant signal for traders, given fuel costs feed quickly into household price perceptions. If crude stays elevated, the combination of weaker sentiment and firmer inflation expectations leaves the RBNZ facing a less comfortable trade-off between growth and prices. For the currency, a weak NZD is itself one of the supports ANZ cites for exporters and tourism, which may limit official concern about further depreciation.</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr">Meanwhile, on the AUD:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/technical-analysis/audusd-falls-to-lowest-level-since-early-july" target="_blank" rel="follow">AUDUSD falls to lowest level since early July.</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr"> New Zealand consumers began September steadier than they finished it, with a mid-month oil spike eroding confidence and nudging price fears back up beneath a calm-looking monthly average.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence fell 0.4 points to 97.6 in September, still below 100 but about 17 points above April's low</li><li>Current conditions rose to 87.3 from 83.4; future conditions fell to 104.5 from 107.7</li><li>Two-year inflation expectations eased to 4.5% from 4.7%, the lowest since March 2025; house price expectations fell to 2.4%</li><li>Net 12-month economic outlook worsened to minus 16 from minus 12; five-year outlook eased to +10 from +13</li><li>Weekly data showed confidence weakening and inflation expectations rising as oil prices spiked mid-month</li><li>ANZ sees the recovery continuing but gradual and fragile, with the RBNZ unlikely to tolerate fast growth</li></ul><p dir="ltr"> New Zealand consumer confidence edged lower in September as a sharp rise in oil prices appeared to sap sentiment over the course of the month, according to the ANZ-Roy Morgan survey released on Friday.</p><p dir="ltr">The headline index slipped to 97.6 from 98.0 in August, leaving it just below the 100 mark that separates optimism from pessimism. That is still around 17 points above April's low, when the index sank to around 80, suggesting households have regained much of the ground lost earlier in the year but are struggling to push further.</p><p dir="ltr">The detail was mixed. The current conditions index rose to around 87 from about 83, while the future conditions index fell to around 104.5 from roughly 108. A net 19% of respondents said they were worse off than a year ago, an improvement from 21%, and a net 20% expect to be better off in a year, slightly lower than in August. Views on the economy over the next 12 months deteriorated, with the net balance falling to minus 16 from minus 12, while the five-year outlook eased to +10 from +13. Sentiment on buying major household items improved by 5 points but remains negative, at a net minus 7.</p><p dir="ltr">Two-year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.5% from 4.7%, the lowest reading since March 2025, and house price expectations eased to 2.4%, the lowest since July 2024.</p><p dir="ltr">ANZ noted, however, that the monthly averages may mask a shift within September. Oil prices rose sharply during the month, peaking around mid-September before partly retracing, and a weekly breakdown of the survey showed confidence starting the month stronger than it finished, with inflation expectations ending the month higher. The bank cautioned that weekly cuts of the sample give only a rough estimate.</p><p dir="ltr">ANZ described the economy as a mixed bag. Strong prices for key goods exports and a low New Zealand dollar are supporting exporters and tourism, but the housing market is losing momentum, monetary stimulus is being withdrawn, unemployment remains elevated and cost-of-living pressures persist. The bank expects the recovery to continue but to be gradual and fragile, noting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is unlikely to tolerate a sharp pickup in growth that could threaten inflation.</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">A Tokyo core print at or above 2.4% would reinforce expectations of a follow-up BOJ hike and could support the yen and push short-dated Japanese government bond yields higher, while a miss would give weight to the two board members who argued against the September increase. Because Tokyo leads the national figures by about three weeks, traders tend to read it as a preview of the nationwide trend. For oil, the link runs through import costs: higher crude prices tied to Middle East tensions have been one of the forces lifting Japanese prices, so any further energy spike would add to the BOJ's inflation concern. The jobs data is unlikely to move markets unless it surprises materially, with a tight labour market already assumed.</p><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr"> Two weeks after hiking, the BOJ is about to find out whether Tokyo prices back its decision, with forecasts pointing to core inflation leaping well beyond target.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>Tokyo core CPI (ex fresh food) for September is forecast at 2.4% y/y, up from 1.8% in August; release at 2330 GMT</li><li>Prior readings: headline Tokyo CPI 1.9%, core-core (ex food and energy) 2.0%</li><li>The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% on 18 September in a 7-2 vote and <a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/boj-opinions-show-members-open-to-faster-hikes-if-inflation-risks-overshooting-2-target/" rel="follow">signalled further hikes if its outlook holds</a>&nbsp;(more <a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/icymi-boj-opinions-and-tankan-both-point-to-more-rate-hikes-after-september-s-move/" rel="follow">here on this</a> also)</li><li>Japan's August unemployment rate is expected steady at 2.4%, with the jobs-to-applicants ratio at 1.18</li><li>September monetary base data follows at 2350 GMT, after a 15.7% annual contraction in August</li></ul><p dir="ltr"> Tokyo consumer inflation data for September, due on Friday, is expected to show a sharp pickup in core price growth, a result that would add to the case for further Bank of Japan tightening only two weeks after its latest rate rise.</p><p dir="ltr">Core CPI for the Tokyo area, which excludes fresh food, is forecast to rise 2.4% from a year earlier, up from 1.8% in August. That would take the measure clearly above the central bank's 2% target. Headline Tokyo CPI rose 1.9% in August, while the core-core measure, which strips out both food and energy and is closely watched as a gauge of underlying inflation, was 2.0%. The figures are scheduled for release at 2330 GMT on Thursday, or 8.30 am Friday in Tokyo.</p><p dir="ltr">Tokyo data is published about three weeks ahead of the nationwide figures and is treated as a leading indicator for national inflation, which for September is due later this month.</p><p dir="ltr">The release comes after the BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% on 18 September in a 7-2 vote, with two board members dissenting on the grounds that inflation was still running below 2%. According to its policy statement, the central bank judged underlying inflation to be approaching its target, flagged upside risks from shifting wage and pricing behaviour and rising inflation expectations, and signalled it would continue raising rates if its outlook is realised. A strong Tokyo print would strengthen the majority view and weaken the dissenters' argument that price growth had not accelerated enough.</p><p dir="ltr">Price pressures have been building from higher import costs tied to Middle East tensions and a weaker yen, partly offset by government fuel subsidies and other support measures.</p><p dir="ltr">Japan's August labour market data is due at the same time. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 2.4%, with the jobs-to-applicants ratio forecast steady at 1.18, meaning there are about 118 openings for every 100 job seekers. Monetary base data for September follows at 2350 GMT, after a 15.7% annual contraction in August that reflects the BOJ's ongoing balance sheet reduction.</p><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr">The Tokyo core reading is the key release, with the gap between the expected 2.4% and the BOJ's 2% target likely to shape how quickly markets price the next move.</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr">ps.&nbsp;New Zealand's ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index for September is released, comes in at 97.6, after a reading of 98 in August, still below the 100 level that separates optimism from pessimism.</p><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/news/us-september-ism-manufacturing-54-5-vs-55-0-expected" rel="follow">US September ISM manufacturing 54.5 vs 55.0 expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/canada-sept-s-p-global-manufacturing-pmi-51-5-vs-53-0-prior" rel="follow">Canada Sept S&amp;P Global manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 53.0 prior</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-weekly-initial-jobless-claims-197k-vs-200k-expected" rel="follow">US weekly initial jobless claims 197K vs 200K expected</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-s-schmid-rising-long-term-rates-are-starting-to-strain-housing-and-commercial-lending" rel="follow">Fed’s Schmid: Rising long-term rates are starting to strain housing and commercial lending</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-s-jefferson-weighing-more-data-will-allow-the-fed-to-make-a-better-call-on-rates" rel="follow">Fed's Jefferson: Weighing more data will allow the Fed to make a better call on rates</a></li><li><a href="/news/preview-september-non-farm-payrolls-by-the-numbers" rel="follow">Preview: September non-farm payrolls by the numbers</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold up $20 to $4176</li><li>US 10-year yields down 5.4 bps to 5.24%</li><li>WTI crude oil up $2.55 to $92.97</li><li>USD leads, EUR lags</li><li>S&amp;P 500 up 0.3%</li></ul><p>It was a lively pre-NFP day as the dollar was broadly stronger in part due to a hot reading on the prices-paid component of the ISM manufacturing survey. That briefly sent long-dated Treasury yields to fresh highs since 2002, including 5.69% on 30s as the troubling trend continued.</p><p>Those moves faded fairly quickly though and they got reason to later was the Fed's Jefferson echoed Williams from earlier in the week in suggesting the Fed take its time before hiking rates again. Fed funds now have the odds of an Oct 28 hike at 26%, more than halved from last week.</p><p>Perhaps the most-unexpected wrinkle in today's trading was a quick drop in USD/JPY in early US trading as it dropped 50 pips in a sudden move that didn't coincide with any headlines. Intervention was the obvious first thought but it would have been a small intervention and at an unusual time (and level?).&nbsp; In any case, the market wasn't swayed and the dip was bough and steadily erased as the pair finished up 63 pips ont he day to 158.01.</p><p>The oil market was a usual topic of conversation as a WSJ report said Trump told aides he was considering resuming strikes after the midterms, while another report said Iran had offered nuclear inspections for sanctions relief. Some reports showed mounting Hormuz and Saudi east-west exports but that failed to sway sentiment as crude moved solidy higher. There was also late talk from Iran's Fars that said a tanker was hit near Oman.</p><p></p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>What's expected:</p><ul><li>Consensus estimate +910K (range +35K to +180K)</li><li>August +162K</li><li>July +21K</li><li>Private consensus estimate +85K</li><li>Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.1% vs 4.1% prior</li><li>Participation rate 61.6% prior</li><li>Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.7%</li><li>Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.2% y/y vs +3.1% prior</li><li>Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior</li><li>Avg weekly hours exp 34.3 vs 34.4 prior</li></ul><p>September jobs so far:</p><ul><li>ADP employment report +90K&nbsp;vs +75K expected and +36K prior </li><li>ISM services employment not yet released</li><li>ISM manufacturing employment 52.7 vs 52.0 exp and 52.8 prior</li><li>Challenger Job Cuts 43,281 vs 52,881 prior</li><li>Philly employment +11.8vs +27.9 prior</li><li>Empire employment +10.6 vs +9.3 prior</li><li>Initial jobless claims survey week 196K vs 206K last month</li><li>Revelio Labs +57K vs +41K prior</li></ul><p>According to BMO,&nbsp;the headline payrolls print is seasonally softer in September, coming in below estimates 64% of the time and beating 36% of the time, by 92k and 65k, respectively, on average. They note though that September NFP has exceeded expectations for the last four consecutive years. On the flipside, 57% of previous unemployment prints for September have been lower-than-expected, 18% have been higher-than-estimates, and 25% have matched the consensus. Add that up and the seasonals lean slightly hawkish but September is a notoriously tough month for seasonal adjustments.</p><p>Fed pricing ahead of the release is for a 30% chance of a rate hike on October 28. That number has come down dramatically in the past week on dovish comments from the Fed's Williams and a softer PCE report. Non-farm payrolls could be another game changer and with the data-dependent stance from the Fed, it could could be another big swing.&nbsp;</p><p>I tend to see the risks as balanced as a soft number would take away the urgency to hike while a strong number would reopen the October debate but unless it's accompanied by a strong wage number, I wouldn't see it as a game-changer. At the moment though, the market is highly tuned into economic data so expect decent moves either way.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Construction spending: +0.9% MoM vs 0.0% expected. July revised to −0.1% from −0.5%.</li><li>Annual spending rate: $2,203.1 billion.</li><li>Year-on-year spending: −1.7%.</li><li>January–August spending: −3.1% compared with the same period in 2025.</li></ul><p>August components compared with revised July levels, at seasonally adjusted annual rates:</p><ul><li>Private construction: $1,655.3 billion vs $1,637.7 billion. Up 1.1% MoM.</li><li>Private residential: $882.3 billion vs $872.7 billion. Up 1.1%.</li><li>Private nonresidential: $773.0 billion vs $765.0 billion. Up 1.0%.</li><li>Public construction: $547.8 billion vs $546.8 billion. Up 0.2%.</li><li>Public educational construction: $113.1 billion vs $112.9 billion. Up 0.1%.</li><li>Public highway construction: $150.6 billion vs $150.5 billion. Up 0.1%.<a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="follow">census.gov</a></li></ul><p>US construction spending came in stronger than expected in August, rising 0.9% against expectations for no change. The <a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="follow">Census Bureau report</a> also showed a smaller July decline, with spending now down 0.1%, revised from a 0.5% fall. <a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="follow">census.gov</a>.&nbsp; Good news all around.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Private construction drove the increase, with gains in both residential and nonresidential spending. Public construction provided a smaller lift. However, the broader picture remains softer: spending was below year-earlier levels, and the first eight months of 2026 continued to trail the same period in 2025. <a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="follow">census.gov</a></p><p>Quick analysis: The upside surprise and upward July revision are constructive for the growth outlook. At the margin, stronger activity could support the dollar and Treasury yields while giving the Fed less reason to ease. The offset is the continued annual decline. One monthly rebound does not establish a sustained recovery, and the headline increase was within the report’s margin of error. <a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="follow">census.gov</a></p><p>What this report measures: Construction spending measures the dollar value of work completed on private and public construction projects. The monthly figures are seasonally adjusted and expressed at an annual rate, but are not adjusted for inflation and are subject to revision. Traders monitor the report for clues about housing, business investment and economic growth.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior reading was 54.6</li><li>New orders 55.3 vs 53.7 prior</li><li>Employment 52.7&nbsp; vs 51.2 prior</li><li>Prices paid 77.9 vs 72.3 expected -- highest since May</li><li>Prior prices paid 71.1</li></ul><p>The prices paid number is grabbing the market's reaction in the immediate aftermath of the report as it soared. US 30-year yields are at the highs of the day, up 5.2 bps to 5.69%, the high of the day. That dynamic is also weighing on equity markets.</p><p>Prices paid:</p><p></p><p>Comments in the report:</p><ul><li>“Better performance was driven primarily by temporary market effects, including (1) geopolitical uncertainties, (2) customers bringing forward purchases, (3) delayed raw material price increases and (4) reduced competitor capacity. However, these factors do not signal sustained recovery: Structural challenges facing the chemical industry remain, including overcapacity, persistent pricing pressures and protectionist trade policies.” [Chemical Products]</li><li>“Supply chain performance has improved compared to prior years, with lead times largely normalized. Cost pressures persist in select raw materials, transportation and labor categories, requiring continued focus on supplier management and cost control. We remain cautiously optimistic about business conditions over the next several quarters.” [Chemical Products]</li><li>“The U.S. tariff schedule is providing challenges. Finding alternate sources of supply outside of China, local pushback on data centers in the U.S. and continuing material/component shortages are affecting business.” [Computer &amp; Electronic Products]</li><li>“Manufacturing activity remains stable, with a continued focus on cost optimization, supplier negotiations and supply base consolidation. We are actively evaluating alternative sources in several categories to improve supply resilience and reduce costs. While material availability has generally improved compared to prior periods, qualification requirements and supplier capacity constraints continue to influence sourcing decisions for certain critical materials and components. Capital and operational spending remain focused on productivity, efficiency and transformation initiatives.” [Computer &amp; Electronic Products]</li><li>“Orders have doubled yet again, and delivery times have also doubled, in the semiconductor, electronics and government sectors, with remaining sectors flat to down. Coupled with supply chain lead times and pricing pressures, the factory backlog has nearly doubled. Canada tariffs have impacted cross-border costs and left our supply chain team scrambling — those supply chains took years to develop and nurture — hurting the very lead times government buyers are concerned about.” [Machinery]</li><li>“Order levels remain strong and elevated; we have orders through year-end at above forecast levels. Our biggest challenge continues to be a severe shortage of workers, limiting our production output to meet demand. The second challenge is general availability of steel; the market is getting worse, and more production delays are expected as we gap out of needed material.” [Fabricated Metal Products]</li><li>“Raw metals continue to be challenging, especially with the uncertain nature of tariffs being on and off again. New tariffs against Canada have drastically increased costs for capital expenses as well as assemblies.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances &amp; Components]</li><li>“Fuel costs are still affecting transportation costs and the overall cost of goods. Beef costs remain high, with no relief in sight.” [Food, Beverage &amp; Tobacco Products]</li><li>“Higher interest rates slow down the growth of new construction projects; we also have to face up to the higher cost of components from overseas due to tariffs and freight rates. Due to booming demand of AI and data centers, domestic steel capacity has been stretched and pushed. Higher steel costs each month increase our raw-material and finished-goods costs.” [Machinery]</li><li>“Every month, we are faced with new headwinds created by this administration. This month, it is the trade war with Canada, which every day is getting worse — causing prices to go up and uncertainty that creates massive disruption. Buying continues to get pushed out indefinitely as customers don’t want to spend on capital expenditures until there is more certainty of costs and demand. The only thing that is predictable is the chaos that is created by these trade policies.” [Transportation Equipment]</li></ul><p dir="ltr">For background, the ISM manufacturing PMI is the oldest survey of its kind and still the first major piece of US data each month. It's released at 10 am ET on the first business day of the month by the Institute for Supply Management, a trade group for purchasing professionals that was known as the National Association of Purchasing Management until 2001. The survey has been compiled in its current form since 1948, giving it one of the longest track records of any economic indicator.</p><p dir="ltr">The methodology is simple. ISM asks purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of manufacturing firms whether activity is better, worse or the same as the prior month across a series of categories. Those answers are turned into diffusion indexes, where 50 is the dividing line. Above 50 means more respondents reported improvement than deterioration; below 50 means the opposite. The figures are seasonally adjusted.</p><p dir="ltr">The headline PMI is an equal-weighted composite of five sub-indexes: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories. Supplier deliveries is inverted in spirit, as slower deliveries push the index higher, reflecting the idea that stretched supply chains usually signal strong demand. That quirk has occasionally flattered the headline, most notably during the pandemic.</p><p dir="ltr">ISM also publishes indexes that don't feed into the headline, including prices paid, backlog of orders, new export orders, imports and customers' inventories. Prices paid is closely watched as an early read on goods inflation and is often the most market-moving component after the headline.</p><p dir="ltr">Alongside the numbers, ISM publishes anonymous comments from respondents grouped by industry, which offer a qualitative snapshot of conditions in sectors such as chemicals, transportation equipment and machinery.</p><p dir="ltr">ISM notes that a PMI reading in the low 40s or higher is generally consistent with expansion in the broader economy, a reminder that manufacturing is a small slice of US output. A competing survey from S&amp;P Global is released earlier in the day and often diverges.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was 53.0</li></ul><ul dir="ltr"><li>Lowest since March</li><li>Sixth straight month above 50</li><li>New orders fall for the first time since March</li><li>New export orders down for a fourth month</li><li>Output still rising but at the slowest pace in six months</li><li>Input cost inflation highest since July 2022</li><li>Supplier delivery times longest since August 2022</li><li>Business confidence lowest since December 2025</li><li>Employment up for a sixth month, slowest gain since May</li><li>Backlogs fall by the most in eight months</li></ul><p></p><p dir="ltr">The headline still says growth, but the details are pour. New orders slipped into contraction, and the bulk of the 1.5-point drop in the PMI came from demand rather than supply. Tariffs and US trade friction are the main culprits, with panellists flagging client hesitancy and a fourth straight decline in export orders.</p><p dir="ltr">The bigger worry for the Bank of Canada is the cost side. Input prices rose at the fastest pace in more than four years thanks to the Iran war and the hit to energy prices, along with shortages and shipping delays. Delivery times are stretching the most since the post-pandemic snarl, with AI infrastructure demand also soaking up supply. That's a stagflationary mix. Manufacturers are passing some of it along, but some firms say weak demand is limiting their pricing power.</p><p dir="ltr">There's a quirk in the headline too. Longer delivery times are inverted in the PMI calculation, so supply disruptions actually flatter the index. Strip that out and the underlying picture is closer to flat.</p><p dir="ltr">Hiring is holding up, with firms backfilling skilled positions to service long-term contracts. But falling backlogs alongside falling orders means that support won't last if demand doesn't come back.</p><p dir="ltr">For the BOC, this is the dilemma in a nutshell: softening activity tied to trade, against a renewed jump in pipeline inflation. It's hard to cut into that, and equally hard to justify anything hawkish with confidence sliding to the lowest of the year.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.