<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The plan signals a structural shift in Beijing's growth model, with policymakers explicitly targeting a slower pace of retail sales growth than the previous five-year period while pushing for a larger consumption share of GDP. For markets, the emphasis on services spending, including elderly care, childcare, tourism and culture, points to where policy support and potential investment incentives may be directed over the coming years. The acknowledgement that goods consumption momentum is weakening, alongside recent soft retail data, underscores the scale of the rebalancing challenge facing Chinese authorities. Investors are likely to watch for follow-through on income and social security reforms, which economists see as prerequisites for the plan's targets to be credible.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">--- China bets on services spending and higher incomes to rebalance its economy toward consumption.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Summary:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">China's State Council approved a plan targeting around 60tn yuan in total retail sales of consumer goods by 2030, according to Xinhua</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The plan is part of the 15th five-year plan framework and aims to raise household consumption's share of GDP, according to Xinhua</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 50.1tn yuan in 2025, the first time the figure topped 50tn yuan during the 14th five-year plan period, according to Xinhua</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Final consumption expenditure contributed an average of 58.8% to economic growth over the 14th five-year plan period, up ten percentage points from the prior five years, according to Xinhua</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Retail sales rose 1.4% year-on-year from January to May after slipping 0.6% year-on-year in May alone, according to the South China Morning Post citing National Bureau of Statistics data</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The new target implies annual retail sales growth slowing to around 3.7%, down from roughly 5% recorded between 2021 and 2025, according to a separate report</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The plan calls for expanded visa-free entry, more international flights and new consumption models including digital, AI-powered and green consumption, according to a separate report</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> China has approved its first five-year plan dedicated specifically to boosting consumption, setting a target of around 60tn yuan, or roughly $8.84tn, in total retail sales of consumer goods by 2030. The plan, released by the State Council on Monday, forms part of the broader 15th five-year plan framework and is designed to raise household consumption's contribution to gross domestic product while securing steady growth in spending on goods and services.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">According to state news agency Xinhua, the plan sets out objectives including reshaping the composition of consumption, strengthening consumers' purchasing power, expanding the range of goods and services available, and improving the conditions surrounding consumption. Local authorities have been directed to treat consumption growth as a central priority within their own economic and social development plans, tailoring specific targets and policy tools to local conditions.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The new goal follows a milestone reached in 2025, when total retail sales of consumer goods hit 50.1tn yuan, surpassing 50tn yuan for the first time during the 14th five-year plan period. Over that period, final consumption expenditure contributed an average of 58.8% to economic growth, a rise of ten percentage points compared with the preceding five years. The South China Morning Post reported that the earlier 50tn yuan goal, set by the Ministry of Commerce for 2025, was achieved at a compound annual growth rate of roughly 5%.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The new target implies a slowdown in annual retail sales growth to around 3.7%, reflecting weakening momentum in goods consumption even as policymakers push services spending, including elderly care, childcare, healthcare, tourism, culture, sport and education, as a stronger growth driver. Household consumption currently accounts for around 40% of the economy, a share the plan seeks to significantly increase. Per capita services consumption made up 46.1% of total household consumption in 2025, still well below the roughly 70% seen in the United States.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The plan also calls for higher wages, greater property income, improved social security and public services, and the removal of restrictive measures in areas such as car purchases, housing and entertainment approvals. It further proposes expanded visa-free entry, additional international flights, and the promotion of new consumption models spanning digital, AI-powered, green, experiential and inbound consumption. Some government economists have called for long-delayed income and welfare reforms, pointing to a widening imbalance between strong export-backed industrial output and weak domestic demand.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>The economic activity date from China, for June, along with Q2 growth data, is the focus for the calendar in Asia today. </p><p>June is expected to show more on the divergence in China, with subdued domestic activity reflected in falling retail sales y/y while the<a href="https://investinglive.com/news/china-june-trade-data-smashes-forecasts-on-ai-demand-surge" rel="follow"> export engine </a>holds industrial output at a solid +4.6% y/y. Investment is still a basket case, expected -4.9% y/y.&nbsp;</p><p></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/commodities/crude-oil-settles-at-79-34-up-1-20" rel="follow">Crude oil settles at $79.34, up $1.20. Bias remains to the upside from a technical perspective</a></li><li><a href="/forex/fitch-affirms-canada-at-aa-with-a-stable-outlook" rel="follow">Fitch affirms Canada at AA+ with a stable outlook</a></li><li><a href="/news/trump-told-netanyahu-that-he-should-remove-his-soldiers-from-lebanon" rel="follow">Trump told Netanyahu that he should remove his soldiers from Lebanon</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-s-goolsbee-june-cpi-inflation-data-was-a-surprisingly-benign" rel="follow">Fed's Goolsbee: June CPI inflation data was surprisingly benign</a></li><li><a href="/news/trump-we-will-be-doing-a-lot-of-deals-with-iraq-and-taking-a-lot-of-oil-out" rel="follow">Trump: We will be doing a lot of deals with Iraq and taking a lot of oil out.</a></li><li><a href="/technical-analysis/crude-prices-move-lower-after-trump-backtracks-on-his-20-reimbursement-fee" rel="follow">Crude prices move lower after Trump backtracks on his 20% Reimbursement Fee</a></li><li><a href="/news/trump-tacos-on-the-20-toll-in-hormuz" rel="follow">Trump TACOs on the 20% toll in Hormuz</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/warsh-q-a-inflation-is-a-choice-we-will-deliver-price-stability" rel="follow">Warsh Q&amp;A: Inflation is a choice, we will deliver price stability</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/rbc-bumps-up-canadian-and-us-growth-forecasts-sees-fed-and-boc-frozen-through-2026" rel="follow">RBC bumps up Canadian and US growth forecasts, sees Fed and BoC frozen through 2026</a></li><li><a href="/technical-analysis/the-usd-is-sharply-lower-after-tame-cpi-inflation-what-are-the-charts-telling-traders" rel="follow">The USD is sharply lower after tame CPI inflation. What are the charts telling traders?</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/prepared-text-from-fed-chair-warsh-fed-has-no-tolerance-for-persistent-elevated-inflation" rel="follow">Prepared Text from Fed Chair Warsh: Fed has no tolerance for persistent elevated inflation.</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-june-cpi-3-5-vs-3-8-expected" rel="follow">US June CPI 3.5% vs 3.8% expected</a></li><li><a href="/technical-analysis/the-usd-is-lower-to-start-the-na-session-and-ahead-of-the-cpi-and-warsh-testimony" rel="follow">The USD is lower to start the NA session and ahead of the CPI and Warsh testimony.</a></li><li><a href="/news/investinglive-european-markets-wrap-markets-consolidate-ahead-of-the-us-cpi-report" rel="follow">investingLive European FX news wrap: Markets consolidate ahead of the US CPI report</a></li></ul><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">The June U.S. CPI report came in well below expectations, offering the strongest sign in months that inflation pressures are easing after the spring rebound. Headline CPI slowed to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2%, below the 3.8% forecast, while prices fell 0.4% on the month versus expectations for a 0.1% decline. Core inflation also surprised to the downside, easing to 2.6% year-over-year from 2.9%, while the monthly core reading was unchanged (0.0%), its softest pace since January 2021.</p><p>The improvement was broad-based. Energy prices led the decline as gasoline prices tumbled, but underlying inflation also cooled, with shelter posting its smallest monthly increase since January 2021 and core services ex-shelter recording their weakest reading since May 2020. Softer readings in motor vehicle insurance, apparel, used cars, medical care, and lodging added to the encouraging report.</p><p>The data prompted markets to scale back expectations for additional Fed tightening.&nbsp;The lower CPI sent the US dollar lower and ushered in the testimony on Capitol Hill by Fed Chair Warsh.</p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">Warsh delivered a measured but generally hawkish message, reiterating that the Fed's primary mission is to restore price stability and that "higher inflation is not acceptable." While he described the economy, labor market, and financial markets as solid, he emphasized that inflation remains the central challenge and that the Fed has the tools to bring it under control. Warsh avoided signaling the next move on interest rates, saying the FOMC will debate the timing and extent of any future policy actions and remain guided by the incoming data.</p><p>Warsh also stressed the importance of Fed independence and greater transparency, while noting the central bank is looking beyond any single inflation gauge to better measure underlying price pressures. He added that quantitative easing is not inherently inflationary during periods of crisis and said he remains open-minded about balance-sheet reform.</p><p>On today's CPI report, Warsh acknowledged that the data came in better than expected, but cautioned that one favorable inflation reading is not enough to change the Fed's outlook. He stressed that policymakers need to see a sustained improvement in inflation before considering any shift in policy, reinforcing that the fight against inflation is not yet over.</p><p>During the testimony,&nbsp;President Trump announced that he is abandoning the proposed 20% U.S. reimbursement fee on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz announced less than 24 hour ago, in favor of trade and investment agreements with Gulf States, saying the new approach will generate massive investment, expand factories and manufacturing, and create millions of high-paying American jobs. He credited the U.S. military and senior defense officials for keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to global shipping while maintaining a blockade on vessels traveling to or from Iranian ports or carrying Iranian cargo. Trump said the policy shift followed productive discussions with Middle Eastern leaders and argued that investment partnerships would deliver greater long-term benefits than the proposed fee. He also reiterated his hardline stance on Iran, insisting the country will never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.</p><p>As the dust settles, the USD is ending the session lower with the risk-on currencies (NZD, AUD, CAD) benefiting the most.&nbsp; The NZD rose by 1.06% vs the greenback, the AUD by 0.81% and the CAD by 0.64%.&nbsp; The CHF also benefitted by 0.63%.&nbsp; &nbsp;The JPY was the smallest gainer with a gain of 0.13%.&nbsp; Both the EUR and the GBP rose by 0.34% vs the USD.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>The USD yields moved lower helping the dollars decline.&nbsp; The shorter end of the yield curve fell the most with the 2-year yield falling by -7.6 basis points to 4.187%. That move took the yield down from a high of 4.298% earlier in the day - the highest level going back to February 19, but despite the decline, remains comfortably above the Fed target rate of 3.5% to 3.75%.&nbsp; The 10 year yield fell -2.5 basis points to 4.585%.&nbsp;</p><p>US stocks closed higher led by the Nasdaq index which rose by 233 point or 0.90%. The Nasdaq also closed back above its 200 hour MA after testing the lower 100 hour MA yesterday and finding willing buyers.&nbsp; If the price can stay above the 200 hour MA at 26025, the buyers remain in full control. A move below the 200 hour and 100 hour MA at 25873 would tilt the bias lower.&nbsp;</p><p></p><p></p>Crude oil prices rose $1.74 to&nbsp;$79.88, but&nbsp;is well off the high price at&nbsp;$81.27. Go prices rose by $52 and move back away from the $4000 level to $4053. Silver rose $1.11 or 1.95% to $58.75. Bitcoin caught a bid rising by $2321 to $64,471&nbsp;&nbsp; This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Axios is out with an interesting <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/14/trump-netanyahu-syria-lebanon-redeploy" rel="follow">report</a>, and the timing of it is also notable.</p><p>Trump yesterday created some more bluster in the Iran war but he might still be angling behind the scenes for a peace deal. Axios reports that in a call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Thursday, he told him Israel "should&nbsp;start redeploying its forces out of Syria and urged him to do the same in Lebanon."</p><p>The source for the report was "US and Israeli officials" but I have to wonder if the US side wanted to leak it to send a signal to Iranian negotiators that it's still trying to adhere to the MOU, which required Israel withdraw from Lebanon.</p><p>The report said:</p><p>"They don't want you there. You should redeploy," Trump told Netanyahu, according to the U.S. official, who added that the same is true about Lebanon. </p><p>The report highlights that it could be politicallly tough for Netanyahu to withdraw from any areas ahead of an election in three months.</p><p>WTI crude oil was last up $1.01 to $79.15.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Pres. Trump is speaking to reporters from the Oval Office with the Iraqi prime minister</p><ul><li>We are there for Iraq if they need protection. </li><li> We were called by different countries that said they'd like to invest in the U.S. instead of charging a fee for Strait of Hormuz passage. </li><li> Gulf states are going to invest in the U.S., and I think that's better. </li><li> I don't think anybody should be able to charge a fee for the Strait of Hormuz. </li><li> I gave Iran a chance at a deal. </li><li> They shot first. It was a big mistake.</li><li>Inflation is down. The report was incredible.</li><li>We will be doing a lot of deals with Iraq and taking a lot of oil out. </li><li>We will bring prices much lower yet.&nbsp;</li><li>Speech on Thurday will concern elections.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li><li>Think Iran and Hezbollah will be added to Russia sanctions bill</li><li>inflation is down. The report was incredible.</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Just now from Trump:</p><blockquote>Oil is flowing like never before, thanks to the awesome Power of the United States Military. A special salute to Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, and Commander of the United States Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper. Because of them, and all members of the Most Powerful Military anywhere in the World, BY FAR, the Strait of Hormuz is open to ALL Ship traffic except for Iran — and that is because of their lying, violent, malicious leadership, which is taking them down the path of TOTAL DESTRUCTION. We will therefore have a FULL Blockade, but only on Ships coming to and from Iranian ports, or carrying anything have to do with Iranian cargo. Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States. Those Investments will be MASSIVE but, at the same time, extraordinarily good for them, and their future. As everyone is aware, we have the largest Dollar Investment into the United States, of any Country in History, but these new Investments will make that Number even larger, and we will see Factories, Plants, and Equipment pour into the United States at Historic levels, which will create additional millions of High Paying AMERICAN Jobs! America is WINNING again, winning like never before. The days of Iran killing hundreds of thousands of people, including 52,000 protestors, are OVER and, most importantly, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON! Thank you for your attention to this matter.&nbsp;President DONALD J. TRUMP</blockquote><p>So the 20% toll announcement barely lasted a day and never went into effect. There was obviously some blowback but perhaps this was part of the strategy all along.</p><p>What's less clear is if any traffic is going to be flowing through Hormuz with ships under attack from Iran. There was a modest bounce in stocks on this and oil has been giving back its earlier gains throughout the session.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was 4.2%</li><li>CPI m/m -0.4% vs -0.1% exp</li><li>Prior CPI was +0.5%</li><li>Unrounded -0.349%</li></ul><p>Core readings:</p><ul><li>Core y/y 2.6% vs 2.8% expected</li><li>Prior core was 2.9%</li><li>Core m/m 0.0% vs +0.2% expected</li><li>Prior m/m +0.2%</li><li>Unrounded -0.017% m/m vs +0.208% prior</li><li>Core-CPI services ex-shelter m/m -0.089% vs +0.262% prior -- lowest since May 2020</li><li>Core Goods -0.086% m/m vs -0.114% m/m prior</li></ul><p>Ahead of the report, Fed funfds futures were pricing in 9.2 bps of hikes at the July 29 meeting and 41 bps for year end. After the report, those numbers have fallen sharply, though the market is also sorting through the comments from Warsh. July now prices at 3.9 bps and Dec at 32.7 bps.</p><p>The energy index fell 5.7% in July after a 3.9% rise in May and that was the largest contributor to the overall decline.&nbsp;</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Key sub-components:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Owners' equivalent rent: +0.24%</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Rent of primary residence: +0.15%</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Motor vehicle insurance: -2.0% (after -1.7% in May)</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Airfares: +0.2% m/m, still +26.5% y/y</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Used cars: -0.2%</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Apparel: -0.6%</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Medical care: -0.1%</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Lodging away from home: -2.3%</li></ul><ul><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Energy m/m: -5.7% (largest drop since April 2020)</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Gasoline m/m: -9.7%</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Shelter m/m: +0.1% (smallest since January 2021)</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Food m/m: +0.2%</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Real average hourly earnings +0.1% y/y vs -0.8% y/y prior</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">On the core reading, flat on the month is the softest reading since January 2021. Shelter rose just 0.1% — also the smallest since January 2021. The surprise might be motor vehicle insurance falling 2.0% for a second straight month of declines.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The hot spots weren't all encouraging. Recreation +0.5%, household furnishings +0.2% and some goods categories still showing tariff residue, but commodities ex-food-and-energy fell 0.1% on the month and are up just 0.8% y/y. </p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">For the Fed, this cracks the door wide open. The March-May inflation scare was always an energy story wearing a core costume, and June strips the costume off. With headline set to fall further on July gasoline and shelter finally rolling over, the FOMC has cover to look through the 3.5% y/y print and focus on the 2.6% core trend — which is now decelerating again after the spring stall. The problem now is that the war has restarted and oil is up another 2.25% today and more than 10% in a week. Gasoline prices have also been kept high by a tight refining market so I'm not sure how much more deflation (if any) is coming.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">One caveat on the data itself: the October and November 2025 gaps from the appropriations lapse are still muddying the seasonal factors, so take the month-to-month precision with a grain of salt. The direction, though, is unmistakable.</p><ul></ul> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/commodities/is-it-time-to-buy-the-gold-miners" rel="follow">Is it time to buy the gold miners?</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-june-nfib-small-business-optimism-index-xx-vs-95-7-expected" rel="follow">US June NFIB small business optimism index 97.4 vs 95.7 expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/what-is-the-distribution-of-forecasts-for-the-us-cpi" rel="follow">What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?</a></li><li><a href="/news/the-bond-market-is-one-spot-to-keep-an-eye-out-for" rel="follow">The bond market is one spot to keep an eye out for</a></li><li><a href="/news/long-global-semiconductors-remains-the-most-crowded-trade-on-record-as-bofa-notes-no-one-is-short" rel="follow">Long global semiconductors remains the most crowded trade on record as BofA notes 'no one is short'</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/gold-at-risk-of-another-selloff-as-a-crucial-us-cpi-report-looms-amid-renewed-us-iran-crisis" rel="follow">Gold at risk of another selloff as a crucial US CPI report looms amid renewed US-Iran crisis</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/ethereum-price-analysis-eth-breakout-levels-to-watc" rel="follow">Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Breakout Levels to Watch</a></li><li><a href="/news/what-are-the-main-events-for-today-2" rel="follow">What are the main events for today?</a></li><li><a href="/news/germany-june-wholesale-price-index-0-7-vs-0-6-m-m-prior" rel="follow">Germany wholesale prices drop further in June but remain elevated as a whole</a></li><li><a href="/orders/fx-option-expiries-for-14-july-10am-new-york-cut" rel="follow">FX option expiries for 14 July 10am New York cut</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/oil-prices-extend-run-higher-as-us-iran-tensions-intensify" rel="follow">Oil prices extend run higher as US-Iran tensions intensify</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-inflation-the-main-focus-in-the-day-ahead" rel="follow">US inflation the main focus in the day ahead</a></li></ul><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">It's been a relatively calm session as the price action stayed mostly rangebound heading into the US CPI report. Oil prices continued to edge higher, with WTI rising above the&nbsp;$80 level as escalating tensions between the US and Iran fuelled fears of further supply disruptions. Markets continue to price in heightened geopolitical risk premium amid concerns over the Strait of Hormuz.</p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer"> Bank of America's July Fund Manager Survey was ominous as the sentiment became very lopsided. The survey showed record 54% expecting 'no landing' and just 2% seeing a 'hard landing'. Long global semiconductors remained the most crowded trade on record, with BofA noting that 'no one' is short. Moreover, 83% of investors were not expecting a Fed rate hike before November midterms. These were all very one-sided views.</p><p id="p-rc_a924fad8e9eb065f-57" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px">The contrarian trades here would be short the Nasdaq on crowded semiconductors and tech positioning, long US 10y Treasuries on record 'no landing' view, long US dollar on low odds of Fed rate hikes before November and long oil on lower year-end price forecast.</p><p> The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 97.4 in June, comfortably beating expectations of 95.7. The improvement reflected stronger business confidence following lower fuel prices earlier in the month, although inflation remained the top concern for small businesses, with firms continuing to report higher selling prices and persistent difficulties in finding qualified workers.</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">In the American session, all eyes will be on the US CPI report although we will also have Fed Chair Warsh testimony. Headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.8% vs 4.2% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at -0.1% vs 0.5% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.8% vs 2.9% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.2% vs 0.2% prior.</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">The only data point that will matter is the Core CPI M/M which is expected at 0.2%, so you can forget all the rest. Fed's Williams said that he will consider rate hikes if monthly core inflation (using the PCE measure) runs above 0.2% in the second half of the year. Fed's Waller, yesterday, made it clear that he won't wait for such a long time and today's report will be enough for him to vote for a rate hike in July in case the data beats forecasts. Waller has been a great leading indicator since 2021.</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"></p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Prior 95.3</li></ul><p style="border: 0 solid rgba(229, 231, 235, 1); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0 0 1rem; line-height: 24px; color: rgba(51, 51, 51, 1); font-family: Gotham, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px">The index&nbsp;rose 2.1 points in June to 97.4, nearing its 52-year average of 98.0. Expectations for better business conditions and real sales expectations improved substantially and primarily drove the rise in the Index. The Uncertainty Index fell 2 points from May to 89, remaining well above its historical average of 68.</p><p style="border: 0 solid rgba(229, 231, 235, 1); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0; line-height: 24px; color: rgba(51, 51, 51, 1); font-family: Gotham, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px">As reported in&nbsp;NFIB’s monthly Jobs Report, the NFIB Small Business Employment Index remained essentially flat, registering 100.2 in June. In June, a seasonally adjusted 32% of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in June, up 3 points from May’s lowest level since May 2020.</p><p style="border: 0 solid rgba(229, 231, 235, 1); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0; line-height: 24px; color: rgba(51, 51, 51, 1); font-family: Gotham, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px"></p><blockquote style="border: 0 solid rgba(229, 231, 235, 1); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0; line-height: 24px; color: rgba(51, 51, 51, 1); font-family: Gotham, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px">NFIB Chief Economist, Bill Dunkelberg said: “Current economic conditions present small business owners with both encouraging developments and ongoing challenges.&nbsp;Lower fuel costs provide welcome relief for businesses as well as consumers, with firms anticipating improved operating conditions over the next six months. While there have been improvements in the overall environment, high interest rates and modest economic growth are causing owners to approach hiring and capital spending with caution.”</blockquote><p style="border: 0 solid rgba(229, 231, 235, 1); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0; line-height: 24px; color: rgba(51, 51, 51, 1); font-family: Gotham, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px"></p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">For background, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is a monthly survey-based indicator that measures the confidence and outlook of U.S. small business owners. It is published by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) and is one of the earliest economic indicators released each month. </p><p>The index is based on responses from thousands of small business owners and combines 10 components into a single optimism score. Small businesses account for roughly half of U.S. private-sector employment, making their sentiment an important gauge of economic activity. Since the survey is released early in the month, it provides one of the first snapshots of business conditions before many other major economic reports. </p><p>The NFIB index is a sentiment survey, not a direct measure of economic output. It reflects what business owners expect or plan to do rather than what has already occurred. For that reason, traders often analyze its individual components, especially hiring plans, capital spending intentions, and pricing plans for clues about future economic activity and Federal Reserve policy.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">CPI Y/Y</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">4.0% (10%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">3.9% (32%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">3.8% (36%) - consensus</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">3.7% (20%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">3.6% (2%)</li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">CPI M/M</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.3% (1%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.1% (3%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.0% (23%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">-0.1% (36%) - consensus</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">-0.2% (36%)&nbsp;</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">-0.3% (1%)</li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">Core CPI Y/Y</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">3.0% (4%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">2.9% (39%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">2.8% (57%) - consensus</li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">Core CPI M/M</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.4% (2%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.3% (34%) </li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.2% (60%) - consensus</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.1% (2%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.0% (2%)</li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">The only data point that will matter is the Core CPI M/M which is expected at 0.2%, so you can forget all the rest. Fed's Williams said that he will consider rate hikes if monthly core inflation (using the PCE measure) runs above 0.2% in the second half of the year. Fed's Waller, yesterday, made it clear that he won't wait for such a long time and today's report will be enough for him to vote for a rate hike in July in case the data beats forecasts. Waller has been a great leading indicator since 2021.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">If the data beats forecasts, the probabilities for a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting will likely rise above 50% and the Fed will be forced to follow through to avoid a dovish surprise. This should translate in another risk-off wave considering the US-Iran crisis running in the background. On the other hand, if the data comes in line or even below expectations, then we will likely see the odds for a July hike dropping and that will likely trigger some risk-on in the short-term, although it might not be as strong as it would have been without the US-Iran conflict.&nbsp;</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Traders and investors are all gearing up for the US CPI report to come later in the day. And that is seeing a bit of a breather in broader markets, following the risk selloff from yesterday. That owes much to US-Iran developments, as tensions flare up again in the Middle East.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">But even so, the bond market is quietly making its move today still. 10-year Treasury yields are now climbing up to 4.63%, its highest since the end of May. That as renewed inflation fears is helping to spark a further shift in the Fed outlook ahead of the inflation numbers today.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The high in May was seen around 4.68% and that will be in focus as we look to the days/weeks ahead now. At the same time, 30-year yields in the US are also touching 5.11% today - up nearly 30 bps from three weeks ago. That shows that the long-end of the curve is once again starting to heat up.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">As for the short-end, we are seeing more striking moves. 2-year yields in the US are now up to 4.29%, its highest since February 2025. That comes as traders are also now fully pricing in a 25 bps rate hike by September for the Fed.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Circling back to the US CPI report coming up later, I would want to point out a word of caution. The numbers will be for June and that may see more depressing elements in terms of energy prices as the US-Iran conflict settled down with both sides eventually signing off on a ceasefire deal. However, that has all been blown into dust now as we get into July and we are seeing a resurgence in energy prices this past week.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The other caveat is that there will be a slight boost in the numbers, especially core prices, owing much to the World Cup effect. That will indirectly feed into higher price pressures for food and lodging especially, so it is a bit of a one-off with that also feeding a bit into July.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">But in looking past that boost, the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is now closed again is a big worry to the inflation outlook. And that kind of angst is now already being translated into the bond market. In turn, that will also have broader market ramifications with bonds often being the tail that wags the dog.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Global investor sentiment hits highest since February on optimism on macro 'boom', AI capex and dovish Fed</li><li>Record 54% of fund managers expect 'no landing' for global economy; only 2% see 'hard landing'</li><li>Cash levels fall to 'uber low' level of 3.6% from 4.1%, triggering sell signal on BofA cash rule</li><li>82% of investors say long global semiconductors is world's most crowded trade, trimmed July tech longs, but 'no one is short'</li><li>Fund managers raise US equity allocation to highest overweight since December 2024</li><li>61% of investors do not expect AI hyperscalers to cut capex this year versus 28% expecting cut</li><li>83% of investors do not expect the Fed to hike rates before November US midterms</li><li>Fund managers cut end-2026 oil forecast to 71$ from 86$ in June</li></ul><p id="p-rc_a924fad8e9eb065f-57" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">The Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) is one of the most influential monthly reports in the financial world. It polls roughly 200 to 400 institutional fund managers (people managing hundreds of billions of dollars in hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds) to see how they are positioned in the markets.</p><p id="p-rc_a924fad8e9eb065f-57" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">It's useful as a contrarian indicator. In fact, when positioning gets overstretched on one side or the other, the risk of aggressive unwinding increases. Complacency is punished in the markets. There's generally a catalyst triggering the reversals or just multiple factors signalling an inflection point.</p><p id="p-rc_a924fad8e9eb065f-57" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">The latest survey is ominous as the sentiment looks very lopsided. We have record 54% expecting 'no landing' and just 2% seeing a 'hard landing'. We have record 82% of investors being long global semiconductors and 'no one' being short. We have 83% of investors not expecting a Fed rate hike before November midterms. These are all very one-sided views.&nbsp;</p><p id="p-rc_a924fad8e9eb065f-57" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">The contrarian trades here would be short the Nasdaq on crowded semiconductors and tech positioning, long US 10y Treasuries on record 'no landing' view, long US dollar on low odds of Fed rate hikes before November and long oil on lower year-end price forecast.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, we don't have anything on the agenda, so the price action will likely stay rangebound heading into the US CPI report. The US-Iran headlines are always a risk though and some meaningful development on that front can trigger big moves.&nbsp;</p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, all eyes will be on the US CPI report although we will also have Fed Chair Warsh testimony. Headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.8% vs 4.2% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at -0.1% vs 0.5% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.8% vs 2.9% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.2% vs 0.2% prior.&nbsp;</p><p>The only data point that will matter is the Core CPI M/M which is expected at 0.2%, you can forget all the rest. Fed's Williams said that he will consider rate hikes if monthly core inflation (using the PCE measure) runs above 0.2% in the second half of the year. Fed's Waller, yesterday, made it clear that he won't wait for such a long time and today's report will be enough for him to vote for a rate hike in July in case the data beats forecasts. Waller has been a great leading indicator since 2021.</p><p>We also have Fed Chair Warsh semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. This is unlikely to matter much as Warsh doesn't like to give forward guidance, so he's likely to repeat what he said at the last FOMC press conference.&nbsp;</p><p>CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS</p><ul><li>08:00 GMT/04:00 ET - BoE's Bailey (neutral - voter)</li><li>14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - Fed Chair Warsh (neutral - voter)</li><li>16:40 GMT/12:40 ET - Fed's Barr (neutral - voter)</li><li>17:00 GMT/13:00 ET - Fed's Goolsbee (hawkish - non voter)</li><li>17:30 GMT/13:30 ET - Fed's Cook (neutral - voter)</li><li>18:55 GMT/14:55 ET - Fed's Bowman (dovish - voter)</li><li>20:00 GMT/16:00 ET - BoE's Bailey (neutral - voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>June wholesale price index -0.7% m/m</li><li>Prior -0.6%</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Wholesale prices in Germany continue to fall again in June, with the annual estimate also easing further to +4.9% - down from +5.9% in May. The year-on-year increase is still notable as it owes to the earlier build up in energy prices and prices for raw materials during the start of the US-Iran conflict.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">As for the drop in wholesale prices on the month, the decline owes to a fall in&nbsp;the price of petroleum products.&nbsp;Prices in this category were down by 6.8% in June when compared to the month before.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">At the same time, prices in the&nbsp;wholesale trade of non-ferrous ores, metals, and semi-finished metal products also reflected a 2.7% drop in June when compared to May.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">That being said, both key categories above are still significantly higher when compared to June last year. The price of petroleum products were still up by 21.7% compared to the same month a year ago and the prices in&nbsp;the&nbsp;wholesale trade of non-ferrous ores, metals, and semi-finished metal products were still up by a whopping 31% compared to June last year.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">So, that sort of puts things into perspective when viewing the headline figure.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">There's only one game in town for markets today. And no, it isn't France versus Spain sadly. The trading day ahead will center around the US CPI report for June, with inflation data coming back into focus amid the turn of events in the Middle East this past week.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The US-Iran conflict is back on and that is continuing to turn heads with oil prices surging higher again. WTI crude is clipping the $80 mark with Brent crude rising back up to touch $85 earlier. And that in turn is prompting markets to rethink the Fed outlook again, just weeks after the ceasefire deal was signed.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">As such, the US inflation data coming up later will take on added importance - even if not quite fully reflective of the latest developments yet.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Headline annual inflation is expected to ease slightly in June to 3.8%, down from 4.2% previously. That comes as the monthly estimate is also expected to show some deflationary signs,&nbsp;driven by a sharp drop in gasoline prices. Of note, energy prices are estimated to fall over 5% month-on-month after the strong surge during the March to May period.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">However, core prices are expected to keep a little more sticky with core annual inflation estimated at 2.8% - marginally down from 2.9% in May.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The major impact on this one is likely due to the World Cup, which runs through majority of June and well into July. This is usually a quieter time for US sporting events, so to have the biggest one in the world is arguably quite something. That could&nbsp;have some outsized impact on certain CPI categories, especially with food and lodging. The latter in particular is expected to potentially double the inflation rate in May, rising to 0.8% month-on-month.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Bank of America&nbsp;aggregated credit and debit card data shows that the&nbsp;World Cup has buoyed retail activity across the 11 US host cities, on average. They note that: "In the three weeks ending 27 June,&nbsp;brick-and-mortar spending at restaurants and bars was up 5.3% y/y in the host cities, vs. 3.8% in the rest of the US."</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">And as a reminder, this data only covers US-based customers. It doesn't cover international tourists and their spending.&nbsp;That means the boost to retail activity from the World Cup is likely much larger than the BAC card data suggest.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Anyway, markets are now pricing in ~43% odds of a ratre hike in July with a full 25 bps rate hike now priced for September next. So, those odds are the ones that will matter most in terms of impacting broader market moves in reaction to the inflation data later.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Here are what analysts are anticipating ahead of the report later (h/t @ MNI):</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p><p></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/news/china-june-trade-data-smashes-forecasts-on-ai-demand-surge" rel="follow">China June trade data smashes forecasts on AI demand surge</a></li><li><a href="/forex/nzd-firms-as-conway-reinforces-rbnz-hawkish-tilt-on-inflation-risk" rel="follow">NZD firms as Conway reinforces RBNZ hawkish tilt on inflation risk</a></li><li><a href="/news/china-s-export-growth-accelerated-in-june-surged-27-y-y-vs-18-2-expected" rel="follow">China's export growth accelerated in June, surged 27% y/y vs. 18.2% expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/preview-falling-gas-prices-seen-pulling-us-june-cpi-lower-but-fed-unlikely-to-relax" rel="follow">Preview - Falling gas prices seen pulling US June CPI lower, but Fed unlikely to relax</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/gold-falls-to-two-week-low-as-oil-surge-stokes-fed-hike-bets" rel="follow">Gold falls to two week low as oil surge stokes Fed hike bets</a></li><li><a href="/news/australian-business-mood-improves-in-june-but-survey-misses-new-oil-spike" rel="follow">Australian business mood improves in June, but survey misses new oil spike</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/icymi-european-union-imposes-gold-sanctions-ban" rel="follow">ICYMI - European Union imposes gold sanctions / ban</a></li><li><a href="/news/australia-business-confidence-june-2026-vs-prior-14" rel="follow">Australia Business Confidence June 2026: -5 (vs. prior -14)</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/pboc-sets-usd-cny-central-rate-at-vs-estimate-at-6-7927" rel="follow">PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7990 (vs. estimate at 6.7927)</a></li><li><a href="/forex/japan-finance-minister-comments-giving-the-yen-a-wee-boost" rel="follow">Japan finance minister comments giving the yen a wee boost</a></li><li><a href="/news/rba-rate-hikes-still-weighing-even-as-confidence-ticks-higher" rel="follow">RBA rate hikes still weighing even as confidence ticks higher</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/bank-of-korea-seen-hiking-to-2-75-this-week-on-thursday-more-to-come-by-year-end" rel="follow">Bank of Korea seen hiking to 2.75% this week, on Thursday, more to come by year end</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/recap-rbnz-warns-oil-driven-inflation-could-become-persistent-more-hikes-eyed" rel="follow">Recap - RBNZ warns oil driven inflation could become persistent, more hikes eyed</a></li><li><a href="/news/singapore-economy-cools-from-q1-pace-as-mas-policy-call-nears" rel="follow">Singapore economy cools from Q1 pace as MAS policy call nears</a></li><li><a href="/forex/yen-katayama-bounce-fully-unwinds-as-gpif-shift-doubts-emerge" rel="follow">Yen Katayama bounce fully unwinds as GPIF shift doubts emerge</a></li><li><a href="/news/uk-consumers-spend-on-heat-and-football-even-as-risks-build" rel="follow">UK consumers spend on heat and football even as risks build</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/icymi-iranian-missiles-hit-two-uae-tankers-in-hormuz-killing-one-crew-member" rel="follow">ICYMI - Iranian missiles hit two UAE tankers in Hormuz, killing one crew member</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/rbnz-chief-economist-conway-more-will-get-inflation-back-to-2" rel="follow">RBNZ Chief Economist Conway, more: "Will get inflation back to 2%"</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/tanker-hit-by-projectile-off-oman-coast-hours-before-hormuz-blockade" rel="follow">Tanker hit by projectile off Oman coast hours before Hormuz blockade</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/rbnz-signals-further-tightening-as-conflict-lifts-inflation-risk" rel="follow">RBNZ signals further tightening as conflict lifts inflation risk</a></li><li><a href="/news/nz-qsba-business-confidence-rebounds-but-rising-cost-pressures-cloud-rbnz-path" rel="follow">NZ QSBO business confidence rebounds but rising cost pressures cloud RBNZ path</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/icymi-uae-plans-new-fujairah-port-to-bypass-strait-of-hormuz-ft-reports" rel="follow">ICYMI - UAE plans new Fujairah port to bypass Strait of Hormuz, FT reports</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/us-military-says-it-has-begun-a-third-consecutive-night-of-strikes-against-iran" rel="follow">US military says it has begun a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/recap-crude-surges-as-saudi-arabia-comes-under-attack-and-iran-blockade-returns" rel="follow">Recap - Crude surges as Saudi Arabia comes under attack and Iran blockade returns</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/nasdaq-index-leads-the-stocks-to-the-downside" rel="follow">NASDAQ index leads the stocks to the downside</a></li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Summary:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Oil extended gains after Monday's 9% plus surge, with the US military carrying out a third consecutive night of strikes on Iran and the naval blockade of Iranian shipping now in force</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Gold briefly slipped under 4,000 dollars as the inflation and rate hike implications of the oil spike outweighed any safe haven bid</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The New Zealand dollar moved higher on RBNZ chief economist Conway's comments reinforcing the case for further tightening if Middle East linked inflation proves persistent</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The yen rallied briefly after Japan's Finance Minister Katayama reopened the door to a possible GPIF allocation shift, without committing to anything concrete</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">China's June trade data smashed forecasts, with exports growing at their fastest pace since 2021 and imports at a five year high</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">South Korean shares fell again, triggering a five minute sidecar halt in program trading after the KOSDAQ dropped 5%</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Oil extended its gains on Tuesday after Monday's rally of more than 9%, as the US military carried out a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran and the reinstated naval blockade of Iranian shipping took hold. The escalation has now touched multiple fronts within a single session, from direct attacks on Saudi soil to a fatal Iranian missile strike on two UAE tankers in the southern Strait of Hormuz, and Trump's warning of a possible strike on a hardened nuclear facility near Natanz has added a further layer of risk rather than any sign of de-escalation. That combination has left the market pricing a conflict showing no obvious path toward containment, and it is the backdrop against which nearly every other story in today's session needs to be read. Gold, typically a beneficiary of exactly this kind of geopolitical stress, instead briefly slipped under 4,000 dollars, a reminder that the inflation and Fed rate hike implications of higher oil are currently outweighing any safe haven demand for the metal.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The New Zealand dollar was a standout mover, helped by RBNZ chief economist Conway reinforcing the central bank's hawkish framing. Conway confirmed last week's 25 basis point hike to 2.5%, described it as a calibrated drift back toward neutral rather than a shift to restrictive policy, and explicitly said the RBNZ will respond further if Middle East linked inflation pressures prove more persistent than expected, a fairly direct piece of forward guidance that gave the currency a clean fundamental tailwind.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The yen also found some support after Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said a change to GPIF's asset allocation could be examined if the investment environment shifts sharply, days after a report suggested no immediate change was planned. The remarks gave markets a reason to keep pricing some probability of repatriation without offering anything concrete enough to reignite last week's scale of buying, and comments on wanting to enhance the appeal of Japanese government bonds suggest Tokyo is keen to keep the broader asset attractiveness story alive on multiple fronts rather than resting on the GPIF question alone. The yen's rally proved brief, consistent with a market now treating this kind of comment with more caution after last week's round trip.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">China provided the session's clearest upside surprise, with June trade data beating forecasts comprehensively. Exports rose 27% year on year, the fastest pace since 2021, while imports jumped 36% to a five year high, both far ahead of consensus as AI related demand and a rush of shipments ahead of possible US tariffs supported activity. The data raises the stakes for Wednesday's second quarter GDP release.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">South Korean equities were the session's weak spot, falling again and forcing the Korea Exchange to activate its sidecar mechanism, halting program trading for five minutes after the KOSDAQ dropped 5%, a further sign of how unsettled regional risk appetite has become as the conflict grinds on.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">---</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Still to come Tuesday are June CPI data from the US. There's a preview linked in the bullets above and here is an <a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/goldman-expects-us-core-cpi-to-ease-to-2-8-year-on-year-in-june" rel="follow">earlier one from Goldman Sachs.</a></p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">This table of forecasts is via the Wall Street Journal:</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> </p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"></p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The scale of the beat, on both exports and imports, is the story here, since it suggests the AI investment cycle and tariff front-loading are doing more to support Chinese trade than the Reuters poll consensus had assumed just a day earlier. The import surge to a five year high is arguably the more significant number for the broader growth debate, since it hints at firmer domestic demand for components and inputs than the market had been pricing, even as the parallel plunge in crude oil imports to a near decade low complicates any simple read on the health of underlying Chinese demand. With GDP due Wednesday, this print raises the bar for that release and adds to the case that China's growth engine, while still facing headwinds from the property slump and global uncertainty, is proving more resilient in the near term than feared.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">--- China's trade data didn't just beat expectations, it blew past them on both sides of the ledger.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Summary:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">China's exports rose 27% year on year in June, customs data showed, their best performance in four months and the fastest pace since 2021, well above the 18.2% rise economists had forecast and up from 19.4% in May</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Imports jumped 36% year on year, a five year high, compared with forecasts of 24% growth and a 27.4% gain in May</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The trade surplus came in at around 125.6 billion dollars, up from 105.4 billion dollars in May and above forecasts of roughly 121 billion dollars</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Strong demand for AI related technology products, front-loading of U.S. bound shipments ahead of possible tariff hikes, and aggressive pricing by Chinese exporters all helped support the export beat</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">China's crude oil imports fell to their lowest level in nearly a decade, even as broader import growth surged</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">China is due to release its second quarter GDP figure on Wednesday, with first quarter strength having since given way to cooling momentum and continued concern over weak domestic demand</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> China's trade data smashed forecasts in June, with both exports and imports coming in far stronger than expected as AI related demand and a rush of shipments ahead of possible new U.S. tariffs offset broader worries about the Iran war and slowing global growth. Exports rose 27% year on year, customs data showed, their best showing in four months and the fastest pace since 2021, well above the 18.2% economists had forecast and up from 19.4% in May. Imports jumped 36%, a five year high, against forecasts of 24% growth and May's 27.4% gain.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The trade surplus widened to around 125.6 billion dollars from 105.4 billion dollars in May, above expectations of roughly 121 billion dollars. Strong demand for semiconductors and other AI linked technology products provided an important cushion for manufacturers in China's 20 trillion dollar economy, even as disruption from the Middle East conflict and a prolonged property downturn continue to weigh on broader growth. Separate manufacturing data for June had already shown overseas demand beginning to recover, though factory-gate prices kept falling as companies cut prices to win business from customers squeezed by higher energy costs tied to the conflict.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Exporters also benefited as U.S. retailers brought forward orders by four to six weeks to stock up for Black Friday and Christmas sales ahead of expected tariff increases later this year, even as uncertainty over the broader trade relationship remains elevated following President Trump's May visit to Beijing, which failed to deliver the breakthroughs many had anticipated. One notable outlier in the data was crude oil imports, which fell to their lowest level in nearly a decade even as overall import growth surged, a divergence that complicates any straightforward read on the strength of domestic demand.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Strong exports had already helped China outperform expectations in the first quarter, though momentum has cooled since, reinforcing concerns that weak domestic demand leaves the economy exposed if external conditions soften and adding to the case for further policy support. China is due to release its second quarter GDP figure on Wednesday, a release that now carries added significance given how sharply Tuesday's trade data beat expectations.&nbsp;</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>China trade data for June 2026:</p><p>Balance of Trade $125.8bn</p><ul><li>expected 121B, prior 105.43B</li></ul><p>Imports +36% y/y</p><ul><li>expected 24%, prior 27.4%</li></ul><p>Exports +27% y/y, fastest growth since 2021</p><ul><li>expected 18.2%, prior 19.4%</li></ul><p>I'll have more to come on this separately&nbsp;</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The likely headline decline is almost entirely a gasoline story rather than a genuine broadening of disinflation, which is why the core reading matters more for markets than the top line print. A core rate still running near 2.9% and services inflation accelerating to 3.4% argues the Fed has little basis to relax even as the annual headline number improves on paper. That combination leaves Warsh with a difficult needle to thread in his first congressional testimony this week, needing to show he is serious about taming inflation without leaning so hawkish that credit conditions tighten further than necessary, all while a fragile Middle East ceasefire adds two way risk to the energy component going forward.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">--- Cheaper gas will flatter the headline number, but it won't fix the Fed's real problem.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/goldman-expects-us-core-cpi-to-ease-to-2-8-year-on-year-in-june" rel="follow">Goldman Sachs</a> preview</li></ul><p></p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">June CPI figures are due at 8:30am Eastern time (12:30pm GMT) on Tuesday, July 14.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Summary:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Economists expect the US consumer price index to have fallen 0.2% in June, which would be the first monthly decline since the pandemic, driven entirely by a 15% drop in gasoline prices from mid May to the end of June</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The annual inflation rate is expected to ease to 3.8% from May's 4.2%, which had been the highest reading since April 2023</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2% in June, with the annual core rate seen easing only slightly to 2.8% from 2.9% in May, up from 2.5% at the start of the year</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Services inflation, covering items such as rent, car repairs, recreation and dining out, is running at a 3.4% annual pace, up from 2.9% in January and well above the 2010 to 2019 average of 2.6%</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Oil prices rose Monday to around 75 dollars a barrel, still well below the roughly 115 dollar peak reached during the US Iran conflict but above pre conflict levels near 65 dollars, after a fragile ceasefire between the two sides broke down</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">New Fed Chair Warsh, who testifies before Congress this week for the first time since taking the role in May, faces the challenge of taming inflation without triggering rate increases steep enough to further raise borrowing costs</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> US consumer prices are expected to have fallen in June for the first time since the pandemic, according to MarketWatch, though the decline is almost entirely the product of cheaper gasoline rather than a broader cooling in the cost of living. Economists forecast the consumer price index dropped 0.2% for the month, helped by a 15% slide in the price of a gallon of regular gasoline between mid May and the end of June, and expect the annual inflation rate to ease to 3.8% from May's 4.2%, which had itself been the highest reading since April 2023.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The improvement looks less convincing beneath the surface. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2% in June, with the annual core rate seen slipping only to 2.8% from 2.9% in May, itself up sharply from 2.5% at the start of the year. That persistence is being driven largely by services inflation, covering things like rent, car repairs, recreation and dining out, which is running at a 3.4% annual pace, up from 2.9% in January and well above the 2.6% average recorded between 2010 and 2019. Residual effects from earlier tariffs may have added to costs in some goods categories, but services, which are largely insulated from both tariffs and energy prices, remain the tougher part of the inflation picture, with some economists noting the World Cup could have given June's services costs a temporary lift through higher demand for hotels, flights, meals and tickets.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The energy backdrop remains fluid. Oil prices rose Monday to around 75 dollars a barrel after a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran broke down and both sides resumed strikes, though prices remain well below the roughly 115 dollar peak reached earlier in the conflict and are not far from pre conflict levels near 65 dollars. Further gains look limited unless the fighting intensifies to the point where the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for oil shipments, is closed to traffic.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">All of this leaves incoming Fed Chair Warsh, nominated in part on hopes he would lower borrowing costs, with a difficult balance to strike as he testifies before Congress this week for the first time in the role. He must show he is serious about bringing inflation down without tightening policy so aggressively that credit becomes even more expensive, a calibration that will depend heavily on how the Middle East situation, and its effect on oil prices, evolves from here. With the core and services measures both still running well above the Fed's comfort zone, there is considerable doubt that inflation will slow quickly enough to keep the central bank from raising rates further.&nbsp;</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Coming straight after Westpac's <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/rba-rate-hikes-still-weighing-even-as-confidence-ticks-higher" rel="follow">consumer confidence release</a>, this is the second Australian sentiment survey in one session to show improvement that predates the latest escalation, reinforcing the sense that both readings already look somewhat out of date by the time they are published. The retail price decline, the first in seven years, is a genuinely notable data point on disinflation, but it was generated during a brief window when the U.S.-Iran deal was holding and fuel costs were falling, conditions that reversed within days. With Brent back near its highest since mid June and the RBA already flagging that further tightening cannot be ruled out, the softer cost readings in this survey are unlikely to carry much weight into the next policy decision.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">--- Confidence improved on a ceasefire that didn't last long enough to matter.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Summary:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">National Australia Bank's business confidence index improved to -5 in June from a deeply pessimistic -14 in May</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The business conditions index held steady at +3 for a third straight month</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Product price growth eased back to its February level in June, and retail prices declined for the first time in seven years</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">NAB said the results are consistent with slowing activity growth through the first half of 2026, but showed the Middle East conflict's impact on activity and prices had been less severe than feared</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Tensions have since flared again in the Gulf, with the US renewing strikes on Iran and reinstating its shipping blockade through the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude has jumped back up around 2% to circa $85 a barrel, its highest since mid June</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised rates three times this year to 4.35%, held policy steady in June, and warned further tightening cannot be ruled out</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> Australian business conditions held steady and confidence improved in June, a National Australia Bank survey showed on Tuesday, though the brief window of calm the data captured has already been overtaken by a fresh escalation in the Middle East. NAB's business conditions index was unchanged at +3 for a third consecutive month, while confidence improved to -5 from a deeply pessimistic -14 in May, with the improvement attributed to the U.S. and Iran signing an agreement to end a multi month conflict that had triggered a global energy shock.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The survey also captured a notable easing in price pressures. Product price growth slowed back to its February level in June, and retail prices fell for the first time in seven years. According to NAB, the results remain consistent with a broader slowing in activity growth through the first half of 2026, but show that the Middle East conflict's impact on both activity and prices has so far been less severe than had been feared.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">That assessment is already being tested. Tensions in the Gulf flared again this week, with the U.S. renewing military strikes on Iran and reinstating its naval blockade of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has jumped back up around 2% to circa $85 a barrel, its highest level since mid June, having surged sharply overnight. The reversal mirrors a similar pattern seen in Tuesday's separate Westpac consumer confidence survey, which also showed an improvement driven largely by temporary fuel price relief that closed just before the latest spike.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The renewed volatility leaves the Reserve Bank of Australia with a complicated backdrop as it weighs its next move. The central bank has already raised rates three times this year to 4.35% in response to the energy shock, held policy steady at its June meeting, and explicitly warned that further tightening could not be ruled out. With cost pressures likely to reassert themselves as oil prices climb again, June's softer readings on business and consumer sentiment may prove to be a brief respite rather than a turning point.&nbsp;</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>Australia Business Confidence June 2026: -5</p><ul><li>&nbsp;prior -14</li></ul><p>Business conditions: remains at 3</p><ul><li>prior 3</li></ul><p>I'll have more to come on this separately&nbsp;</p><p></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The headline bounce is worth treating cautiously given the timing, since the survey window closed on July 9, just before oil prices spiked again on the latest round of Middle East hostilities, meaning the improvement in sentiment is already somewhat stale by the time it is published. The far larger jump in the future family finances measure compared to the modest move in five year economic expectations suggests households were responding mainly to the temporary petrol price relief rather than any broader improvement in confidence about the economy. With the RBA having already delivered three hikes this year to 4.35%, and roughly six in ten respondents still expecting further mortgage rate increases, the underlying mood remains fragile heading into a period where fuel costs are rising again rather than falling.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">---</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> Confidence recovered just in time to miss the next oil shock.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Summary:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index rose 4.1% in July to 83.9, following a 2.9% fall in June, though the reading remains in the bottom 10% of results over the survey's 50 year history</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Westpac said sentiment stayed highly sensitive to developments abroad, with daily responses weakening noticeably as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorated over the course of the survey week</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The survey ran from July 6 to July 9 and closed before the latest spike in global oil prices</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The measure of future family finances jumped 13.4% in July as petrol prices eased, while expectations for the economy over the next five years rose a more modest 0.7% to 87.1</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The measure of whether it is a good time to buy a major household item added just 0.5% to 86.8, well below its long run average of 123.0</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised rates three times this year to 4.35%, and around 60% of those surveyed expect mortgage rates to rise further over the next 12 months, down from 66% in June</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> Australian consumer confidence rebounded in early July, but the improvement looks fragile given the survey closed just before oil prices spiked again amid renewed Middle East hostilities. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment rose 4.1% from June, when it had fallen 2.9%, to a reading of 83.9, a level that still places it in the bottom 10% of results over the survey's 50 year history, according to Westpac.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Westpac's head of Australian macro forecasting said sentiment remains highly sensitive to events abroad, noting that daily responses through the survey week showed a clear weakening as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorated. The survey itself ran from July 6 to July 9, meaning it closed before the latest jump in global oil prices, leaving the improvement captured in the data already somewhat dated by the time it was published.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The gains were driven largely by temporary relief at the petrol pump rather than any broader shift in economic outlook. The measure of future family finances jumped 13.4% in July as fuel prices eased, but expectations for the economy over the next five years rose only 0.7% to 87.1, and the measure of whether it is a good time to buy a major household item added just 0.5% to 86.8, still far below its long run average of 123.0. The gap between the sharp improvement in near term household finances and the far more muted shift in longer term sentiment underscores how directly tied the bounce was to fuel costs specifically.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The broader mood also remains weighed down by the Reserve Bank of Australia's tightening this year, with three rate hikes taking the cash rate to 4.35% and squeezing mortgage holders. Around 60% of those surveyed still expect mortgage rates to rise further over the next 12 months, though that share has eased from 66% in June. With fuel prices already climbing again as regional tensions escalate, the conditions that supported July's rebound look unlikely to persist into the next reading.&nbsp;</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">A beat on consensus is a modestly supportive headline, but the deceleration from Q1's 6.3% to 5.7% is the more relevant detail for the coming policy decision, since it shows momentum easing even before any further escalation in the Middle East feeds through fully to costs. The MAS already tightened in April specifically to guard against Iran war driven inflation, and with its next review due before month end and inflation forecasts already lifted, a growth print that is merely solid rather than strong gives the central bank limited room to justify anything other than holding its tighter policy stance. The data adds another data point to a week already dominated by conflict linked inflation risk across the region, following similar signals from New Zealand's own business survey and RBNZ commentary.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">---</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> Singapore beat the forecast, but the trend is still pointing down.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Summary:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Singapore's economy grew 5.7% year on year in the second quarter, according to preliminary trade ministry data, above the 5.5% growth economists polled by Reuters had expected</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">On a quarter on quarter seasonally adjusted basis, GDP rose 1.1% from the first quarter</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Growth slowed from an annual 6.3% in the first quarter of 2026</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The trade ministry has forecast full year growth of 2% to 4%</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened monetary policy in April due to the risk of the Iran war fuelling inflation, and its next policy review is due before the end of this month, though the date has not yet been announced</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">In April, the MAS raised its core and headline inflation forecasts for 2026 to a range of 1.5% to 2.5%, up from 1.0% to 2.0% previously</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> Singapore's economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter but lost momentum from the start of the year, preliminary government data showed on Tuesday, in a release that lands just weeks ahead of a closely watched central bank policy decision. GDP rose 5.7% year on year in the April to June period, above the 5.5% growth economists polled by Reuters had forecast, and expanded 1.1% quarter on quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to advance estimates from the trade ministry.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The annual pace nonetheless slowed from 6.3% in the first quarter, a reminder that even as Singapore's economy continues to outperform expectations, the trend is one of cooling rather than acceleration. The trade ministry has forecast full year growth of between 2% and 4%, a range this quarter's outturn remains comfortably within, but the deceleration adds a layer of nuance to what is otherwise a solid headline beat.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The bigger question for markets is what the data means for the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which tightened policy in April specifically because of the risk that the conflict between the US and Iran would fuel inflation. That same month, the central bank raised both its core and headline inflation forecasts for 2026 to a range of 1.5% to 2.5%, up from 1.0% to 2.0% previously. The MAS's next policy review is due before the end of this month, though a specific date has not yet been announced, and Tuesday's growth figures are unlikely to shift the central bank's calculus much in either direction. A growth rate that is merely solid, rather than accelerating, gives policymakers little reason to ease off a tighter stance while the conflict continues to threaten renewed cost pressures.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The release lands alongside a broader run of data this week showing central banks across the region grappling with the same tension, resilient near term growth set against a live and unresolved geopolitical risk to the inflation outlook, a dynamic also evident in <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/nz-qsba-business-confidence-rebounds-but-rising-cost-pressures-cloud-rbnz-path" rel="follow">New Zealand's latest business survey</a> and subsequent<a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/rbnz-chief-economist-conway-more-will-get-inflation-back-to-2" rel="follow"> RBNZ commentary</a>.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"></p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The retail data points to a UK consumer still spending, but decelerating from May's pace even with two clear tailwinds in the heatwave and the World Cup, which suggests the underlying trend is softer than the headline numbers imply. The stabilisation in travel spending after April and May's Iran war related falls is a modest positive, but the explicit warning about food price risk from the conflict flags where the next squeeze on households could come from. On the business side, the CBI and Energy UK's intervention lands at a politically sensitive moment, with a new prime minister about to take office, and puts early pressure on the incoming government over an issue, industrial energy costs, that has been a persistent drag on UK investment.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">---</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> Consumers spent on sun and football, but businesses want the new PM to fix their power bills.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Summary:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">BRC total retail sales rose 1.9% year on year in June, slowing from 3.7% in May, while like-for-like sales rose 1.7%, down from 3.4%</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Barclays' broader consumer spending gauge rose 1.9% year on year in June, up from 0.8% in May, with essential spending up 2.2%, its biggest increase in 14 months</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Non-food sales grew 1.2%, double the 12-month average, helped by online shopping, while travel spending stabilised after falls in April and May tied to Iran war concerns</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The Institute of Grocery Distribution said hot weather and the World Cup could support confidence again in July, but flagged political uncertainty and Iran war linked food price risks further ahead</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">With Andy Burnham poised to become prime minister, the CBI and Energy UK said 40% of firms are cutting investment due to high energy costs, with electricity prices 45% above the G7 median</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The two groups called for the Renewables Obligation, Feed-in Tariff costs and Climate Change Levy to be removed from business electricity bills, changes they said could cut energy costs by up to 20%, while the TUC separately called for a higher tax on bank profits to fund lower household energy bills</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> British consumers kept spending in June, helped by a heatwave and the men's World Cup, but the pace of growth cooled from May even with those tailwinds, according to data published Tuesday by the British Retail Consortium and Barclays. The BRC's measure of total retail sales rose 1.9% year on year, in line with its 12 month average but down from 3.7% in May, while like-for-like sales rose 1.7%, down from 3.4%. Barclays' broader gauge of consumer spending told a slightly different story, rising 1.9% year on year, up from 0.8% in May, with essential spending climbing 2.2%, its largest increase in 14 months.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Hot weather boosted sales of clothing, fans and air conditioning units, while pubs reported strong trade on England's World Cup matchdays, and non-food sales grew 1.2%, double the 12 month average, aided by online shopping. Travel spending, which fell sharply in April and May amid concerns tied to the Iran war, has stabilised, and Barclays said consumer confidence in personal finances has also steadied. The Institute of Grocery Distribution's Sarah Bradbury said the combination of warm weather and the World Cup could support confidence again in July, but warned that political uncertainty and the impact of the Iran war on food prices pose risks further out.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">That political uncertainty is coming into sharper focus with former Manchester mayor Andy Burnham poised to become prime minister. The CBI and Energy UK used the moment to press the incoming government on business energy costs, saying 40% of firms are cutting investment because of high energy bills, with UK electricity prices running 45% above the G7 median. The two organisations called for the Renewables Obligation and Feed-in Tariff costs to be stripped from business bills, funded instead through general taxation or a dedicated Energy Transition Funding Scheme, and for the Climate Change Levy to be removed from non-domestic electricity bills. Together, they argued, the changes could cut energy costs for firms by as much as 20%. The CBI's chief economist argued stronger economic growth cannot happen while firms face such high energy bills. Separately, the Trades Union Congress called for a higher tax on bank profits to help fund reductions in household energy bills.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">New guy is going to have lots of wotk to do.&nbsp;</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The rebound in confidence looks less like an all clear and more like a snapshot taken during a brief window of calm, given the survey ran precisely through the period when fuel prices dipped on the temporary US-Iran shipping agreement, before tensions and prices resurged. What will carry more weight for the RBNZ is the sharp jump in the proportion of firms reporting higher costs, which suggests inflation pressure was building even before the latest reescalation pushed fuel prices back up. That combination, softer capacity utilisation alongside firmer pricing intentions, leaves the central bank with a harder read than the confidence headline alone would suggest, and does little to strengthen the case for near term easing.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">---</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> Confidence recovered, but the survey window closed just as the calm it was measuring started to break.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Summary:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">NZIER's Q2 Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showed business confidence at a net 8%, up from net -4% in the March quarter</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Capacity utilisation eased to 90.8% from 91.2% in the previous quarter</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">A net 12% of firms expect general economic conditions to improve over coming months, up from a net 1% previously, while demand in firms' own business was broadly flat at a net 1%</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The survey ran from 10 June to 7 July, spanning a period when fuel prices fell under a 60 day US-Iran agreement guaranteeing passage through the Strait of Hormuz, before tensions and prices resurged in more recent weeks</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">A net 10% of firms cut staff numbers in the quarter and a net 3% plan to cut investment in buildings, plant and machinery over the coming year, with the upcoming general election adding to the uncertainty</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The share of firms reporting higher costs rose from a net 37% to over half, while those able to pass on higher costs through pricing rose to a net 41%, pointing to a heightened risk of persistent inflation</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> New Zealand business confidence rebounded in the June quarter even as the survey period captured only a temporary lull in the pressures still facing the economy. NZIER's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showed confidence at a net 8%, up from net -4% in the prior quarter, according to the survey release, with a net 12% of firms expecting an improvement in general economic conditions over the coming months, up sharply from a net 1% previously. Demand in firms' own businesses, however, was broadly flat, with only a net 1% reporting increased activity over the quarter.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The timing of the survey, run between 10 June and 7 July, goes a long way to explaining the improvement. That window coincided with a 60 day US-Iran agreement guaranteeing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which briefly eased the fuel price spike tied to the conflict. Geopolitical conditions have since deteriorated again, with tensions between Washington and Tehran re-escalating and fuel prices resurging in recent weeks, meaning the confidence rebound reflects a narrower and more fragile window than the headline number suggests.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Caution persisted beneath the improved mood. A net 10% of firms reported cutting staff numbers over the quarter, and a net 3% plan to cut investment in buildings, plant and machinery over the coming year, with the renewed conflict and uncertainty ahead of November's general election both cited as likely to weigh further on hiring and investment intentions. Capacity utilisation also eased, slipping to 90.8% from 91.2% in the previous quarter. Sentiment across sectors stayed mixed, with the building sector still downbeat on soft construction demand while retail and services turned more positive.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The more significant signal for policymakers may sit in the survey's cost and pricing indicators. The share of firms reporting higher costs jumped from a net 37% to more than half, while the share able to pass those costs on through higher prices rose to a net 41%. That combination points to a heightened risk that inflation pressure persists even as the acute fuel price shock fades, a dynamic the RBNZ is likely to weigh carefully against the temporary nature of the conditions the survey captured.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"></p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"></p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.