<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/may-ism-services-index-545-vs-538-expected-20260603/">May ISM services index 54.5 vs 53.8 expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-may-adp-employment-data-122k-vs-117k-expected-20260603/">US May ADP employment data +122K vs +117K expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/iran-foreign-minister-contact-with-the-us-has-not-been-severed-but-no-progress-made-20260603/">Iran foreign minister: Contact with the US has not been severed but no progress made</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/iran-targeted-a-us-military-ship-in-the-gulf-of-oman-report-20260603/">Iran targeted a US military ship in the Gulf of Oman - report</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/feds-beige-book-continues-to-see-slight-to-moderate-us-growth-20260603/">Fed's Beige Book continues to see slight-to-moderate US growth</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/geopolitical-news-china-iran-nato-and-chip-shortage-20260603/">Geopolitical news: China, Iran, NATO, and chip shortage</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-eia-weekly-crude-oil-inventories-7974k-vs-4007k-expected-20260603/">US EIA weekly crude oil inventories -7974K vs -4007K expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/netanyahu-lebanon-has-been-taken-over-by-hezbollah-20260603/">Netanyahu: Lebanon has been taken over by Hezbollah</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/feds-williams-im-not-that-worried-about-persistent-impacts-on-inflation-so-far-20260603/">Fed's Williams: I'm not that worried about persistent impacts on inflation so far</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-factory-orders-for-april-48-versus-46-estimate-20260603/">US factory orders for April 4.8% versus 4.6% estimate</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/may-us-sp-global-services-pmi-507-vs-509-prelim-20260603/">May US S&amp;P Global services PMI 50.7 vs 50.9 prelim</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/canada-q1-labour-productivity-falls-05-20260603/">Canada Q1 labour productivity falls 0.5%</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold down $41 to $4444</li><li>US 10-yuear yields up 3.4 bps to 4.49%</li><li>WTI crude oil up $2.27 to $96.03</li><li>S&amp;P 500 down 0.6%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp down 0.8%</li><li>USD leads, NZD lags</li></ul><p>The dollar moves were substantial on Wednesday in a worrisome sign of geopolitical risk as oil rose another 2.5%. The reports of an imminent deal between the US and Iran have dried up and there's a sense we are at a turning point in the war as patience wears thin. In particular focus is USD/JPY as it rose above 160.00 and into the range where Japan will be tempted to intervene.</p><p>Elsewhere, oil prices chopped around and hit $97 before fading to $94.40 and then rising back to $96.17.The bond market has started to notice rising oil as yields ticked higher.</p><p>Outside of Iran-driven news, the AI trade showed a bit less resilience than usual. There were some attempts to drag stock markets higher but it was Nvidia that struggled, falling 3.6% in a continuation of yesterday's reversal. We also saw a big swing lower in software stocks, where were a main catalyst in the May rally. The IGV software ETF was down 4.3%.</p><p>Alphabet shares also fell to the lowest since April in a 0.8% decline in the fourth day of losses; Microsoft was down 3.2%. On the flipside, Meta was up 4.2% on upgrades. The meme-like rally in MRVL after Jensen Huang said it will be the next trillion dollar compay continued in early trade but stumbled later and it finished up 3.7%.</p><p>Precious metals and crypto were under pressure in a sign of the deleveraging trade. Bitcoin is nearing $65,000 and threatening the late-March lows.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Trump spouting his usual inane drivel:</p><ul><li>Have been hitting Iran pretty hard</li><li>Iran negotiations going well</li><li>Iran pretty close to signing, in theory</li><li>Iran will agree to no nuclear weapon if they sign</li><li>We could go another two, three weeks</li><li>Iran agreed to us going in and digging up enriched uranium and then they didn't agree</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>It feels like we're at a tipping point in this conflict. Either both sides agree to some kind of text shortly or we're into an escalation spiral.</p><p>CNN is also out with a report saying that monetary compensation is a main sticking point. Iran wants some form of monetary compensation to be released immediately after signing the deal. The US is worried that it will lose leverage by releasing funds.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p data-start="0" data-end="294">Crude oil futures settled at $96.02, gaining $2.26, or 2.41%, as buyers remained firmly in control throughout the session. Prices traded in a wide range, reaching a high of $97.00 and a low of $93.45, but the overall trend remained higher as bullish momentum continued to build.</p><p data-start="296" data-end="670">The technical foundation for today's rally was established yesterday when crude oil found willing buyers near its 100-hour moving average before rebounding sharply and reclaiming its 200-hour moving average. Since moving back above that longer-term barometer, the price has remained comfortably supported, signaling that buyers have regained the near-term advantage.</p><p data-start="672" data-end="1082">Today's advance also carried crude above the May 26 corrective high at $94.71, an important technical hurdle. Although prices briefly dipped back to $94.33 after the breakout, sellers were unable to sustain momentum below the former resistance level. The quick recovery and ability to remain above $94.71 throughout the remainder of the session reinforce that area as a key support level going forward.</p><p data-start="1084" data-end="1431">With the breakout confirmed, traders are now turning their attention to the next major upside targets. The first comes at the 50% retracement of the decline from the April 7 high, which is located at $98.30. A move above that level would further strengthen the bullish case and bring the psychologically important $100.00 level into focus.</p><p data-start="1433" data-end="1923" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Beyond $100, traders will be watching a downward-sloping trendline that currently intersects near $101.00 on the hourly chart. That trendline represents the next significant technical hurdle and could attract profit-taking or renewed selling interest. However, as long as crude oil remains above the former breakout level at $94.71 and above its key hourly moving averages, the technical bias remains tilted to the upside, with buyers maintaining control of the near-term trend.</p><p data-start="1433" data-end="1923" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Fundamentally, traders reacted to another day of deteriorating Middle East diplomacy and rising geopolitical risks. Hopes for a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations faded as talks remained stalled, with both sides publicly disputing whether meaningful discussions are even taking place. Iran has continued to demand broader concessions tied to regional conflicts, while the U.S. and its allies have maintained pressure on Tehran regarding its nuclear program and military activities. </p><p data-start="606" data-end="1090">At the same time, military tensions escalated across the Gulf region. Reports of Iranian missile and drone attacks, U.S. retaliatory strikes, and continued hostilities involving Hezbollah in Lebanon reinforced concerns that the conflict could broaden further. The ongoing uncertainty has also delayed hopes for a normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route that normally handles roughly one-fifth of global oil trade.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>The two sides are studying the texts that were exchanged</li><li>If Israel attacks Beirut, we would respond decisively</li><li>Our contacts with the US have not been cut off but not progress has been made.</li></ul><p>Early this week, oil prices rose on a report saying that Iran had cut off negotiations. That doesn't appear to be the case but oil is up 10% this week as there is no end in sight to the blockades. The latest comments about 'no progress' has helped to lift oil prices in the past few minutes.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Recent headline news has been full of different geopolitical headlines:</p><ul><li>Two rockets have been launched from southern Lebanon toward Israel.</li><li>Rubio says it's impossible to sign any agreement with Iran that does not include highly enriched uranium.</li><li> Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledges that relations with China are more stable. Will see if China commits to larger Boeing purchases.</li><li>Comments that Hezbollah leaders have a backed down from condition of Israeli which role as a prerequisite for accepting a cease-fire</li><li>Iranian source said that the Iran's gratuitous threats are over and that any aggression will be met with regrettable response.</li><li>Rubio told Congress that the US is waiting for Iran's final sign off on negotiations surrounding Tehran's nuclear program</li><li>Talks between Israel and Lebanon is reported to make no serious progress toward peace.</li></ul><p>The comments are both positive and negative. Of course there is not a lot of trust put in any geopolitical comments given the tensions. </p><p>In a another worry, automakers, retailers and consumer electronic firms are warning of chip shortages and price hikes could lead to significant and sustained near-term price increases for American households. </p><p>US yields remain up on the day with the 10 year trading above and below the 4.50% level. The two year yield is trading at 4.088% after dipping below the 4.0% level recently. </p><p>The US dollar remained higher with the largest gain versus the NZD</p><ul><li>NZD +1.06%</li><li>CHF +0.66%</li><li>AUD +0.65%</li><li>CAD +0.41%</li><li>GBP +0.35%</li><li>EUR +0.30%</li><li>JPY +0.08%</li></ul><p>US stocks are lower with the</p><ul><li>Dow -0.86%</li><li>S&amp;P -0.63%</li><li>Nasdaq -0.97%</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was -3327K</li><li>Gasoline +3364K vs -513K expected</li><li>Distillates +1502K vs -319K expected</li><li>Refinery utilization +0.2% vs +0.3% expected</li></ul><p>API data released late yesterday:</p><ul><li>Crude -6750K</li><li>Gasoline -3199K</li><li>Distillates -214K</li></ul><p>WTI crude oil was up $1.10 to $94.92 ahead of the report.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Iran always lies, always cheats</li><li>You have to have a way to remove nuclear material</li><li>We want to make sure Iran doesn't pose a threat to Israel and America, that's our common goal</li><li>Some times we have tactical disagreements</li><li>We always find a way to work out our differences</li><li>We have to disarm Hezbollah and demilitarize Lebanon</li><li>A free and independent Lebanon needs to emerge</li><li>Many of those chieftains targeting Israel are in Beirut</li><li>We've weakened the Iran regime, it's not over</li><li>Iran is 'playing with fire' on escalation</li><li>Trump understands what's at stake</li><li>I will leave it to Trump if military escalation needed</li><li>I don't think Iran wants an out</li></ul><p>The comment about demilitarizing Lebanon is concerning because it's a maximalist goal that essentially means conquering the whole country. That's not going to be done in days but over many months. </p><p>Earlier today, Donald Trump told the New York Post in an interview published that the US naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz could last through Labor Day. </p><p>"I think it could be [closed through Labor Day, Monday Sept, 7], but I think it’s unlikely. I think that we’ll have it. I think this will resolve itself fairly quickly," he said.</p><p>The problem is that Trump initially said this war would be over in 4-6 weeks and we're long past that. He's also made comments about it ending fairly quickly many times.</p><p>He also said he would like to meet the new ayatollah of Iran, and "probably will" at some point. </p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior month factory orders 1.5% revised higher to 1.8%</li><li>Factory orders for April 4.8% vs 4.6% estimate</li><li>Durable Goods revision for April 8.0% vs 7.9% preliminary. Durable goods in March was 1.3%</li><li>Durable Goods ex defense 8.1% vs 8.1% preliminary. Last month -0.3%</li><li>Durable goods ex Transportation 1.1% versus 1.1% preliminary. Last month 1.1%</li><li>Non defense Capital goods ex Air -1.0% versus -1.1% preliminary. Last month 3.9%</li><li>Factory orders Ex Transportation 1.3% versus 1.6% preliminary. Prior month revised higher to 1.8% from 1.6%.</li></ul><p data-start="0" data-end="529">The April factory orders and durable goods reports point to a manufacturing sector that remains resilient, although much of the strength continues to be driven by transportation-related orders. Factory orders rose 4.8%, slightly above the 4.6% estimate and following a revised 1.8% gain the prior month, indicating solid overall demand for manufactured goods. Durable goods orders were revised slightly higher to 8.0% from the preliminary 7.9%, reflecting strong demand for long-lasting manufactured products.</p><p data-start="531" data-end="1402">Beneath the headline numbers, the picture was more mixed. Durable goods orders excluding transportation rose by only 1.1%, matching both expectations and the prior month's revised gain, suggesting underlying demand outside of the volatile transportation sector remained steady. Durable goods excluding defense surged 8.1%, unchanged from the preliminary reading and a sharp improvement from the prior month's 1.3%, highlighting a broad-based increase in private-sector demand. However, the closely watched non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a proxy for business investment, fell -1.0%, slightly better than the preliminary -1.1% reading but well below the prior month's 3.9% increase. That decline suggests businesses may be showing some caution when it comes to capital spending despite the strength seen elsewhere in manufacturing.</p><p data-start="1404" data-end="1829">Meanwhile, factory orders excluding transportation increased 1.3%, below the preliminary estimate of 1.6%, although the prior month was revised higher to 1.8% from 1.6%. Overall, the data paint a picture of a manufacturing sector that continues to expand, supported by strong headline demand, but with some signs of moderation in business investment spending that will be worth monitoring in the months ahead.</p><p data-start="1404" data-end="1829">What is Factory Orders?</p><p>Factory orders provide a broader measure of demand for manufactured goods by tracking new orders for both durable goods and non-durable goods, such as food, chemicals, petroleum products, and paper. The report offers a comprehensive look at activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector and includes information on shipments, inventories, and unfilled orders. Its significance lies in helping economists and investors assess the health of the manufacturing economy, gauge business and consumer demand, and identify trends that may influence future production, employment, and economic growth. Since durable goods data are released earlier, the factory orders report is often viewed as a confirmation of manufacturing trends while providing additional insight into the non-durable goods sector.</p><p>Durable goods orders measure new orders placed with U.S. manufacturers for goods expected to last at least three years, such as automobiles, aircraft, machinery, computers, and industrial equipment. Because these items represent significant purchases, the report is viewed as an important leading indicator of economic activity and business confidence. Rising durable goods orders generally suggest consumers and businesses are willing to spend and invest, pointing to stronger economic growth ahead, while falling orders can signal caution and slower economic momentum. The report can be volatile from month to month due to large aircraft and defense orders, which is why economists often focus on underlying components such as core capital goods orders.</p><p>Durable goods orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft—often referred to as core capital goods orders—are closely watched because they provide one of the best measures of underlying business investment in the U.S. economy. By excluding defense spending and aircraft orders, which can be heavily influenced by government contracts and large one-time purchases, the data offers a clearer view of private-sector demand for equipment, machinery, computers, and other productive assets. Rising core capital goods orders generally signal that businesses are confident enough to invest and expand, supporting future economic growth, while declining orders can indicate caution and weaker growth prospects. As a result, economists and financial markets use this measure as an important gauge of business confidence, capital spending trends, and future GDP growth.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="0">Business activity index vs 55.9 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="0">Employment 47.9 vs 48.0 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="0">New orders 57.3 vs 53.5 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="0">Prices paid 71.3 vs 70.7 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="0">Supplier deliveries 55.2 vs 56.8 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="0"> Inventories 62.5 vs 53.1 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="0">Backlog of orders 51.3 vs 53.0 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="0">New export orders 50.0 vs 52.1 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="0">Imports 51.1 vs 54.7 prior</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words" index="0">Inventory sentiment 55.2 vs 55.1 prior</li></ul><p>The details are a tad worse than the headline and that prices paid number is worrisome. Despite several indicators showing a better jobs market, this one is still in contraction.</p><p>Comments in the report:</p><ul><li>“We are seeing the dual effects of the administration’s tariff policy dynamics and the conflict in the Persian Gulf affect our pricing. Suppliers across numerous industries are trying to pass price increases for fuel surcharges and increased input costs for resin-based products and the like. This is the definition of inflationary pressure starting to affect us. We expect significant cost increases to impact us by late second quarter (Q2) and definitely in Q3.” [Accommodation &amp; Food Services]</li><li>“Starting to see increased supply constraints and associated price increases, especially for construction materials and computers like laptops and tablets.” [Educational Services]</li><li>“Patient volumes and activity remain high, employment is steady and supply chains are operating effectively. There are some product lines on allocation as a direct result of the Middle East conflict; however, the current state is manageable. Another concerning factor on the horizon: the current drop-out rate on Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance plans after the federal subsidy was eliminated as of January 1. Year-to-date dropout rates are approaching 14 percent, indicating we may be seeing a potential increase in uninsured patients in the foreseeable future. The short-term forecast is cautious optimism.” [Health Care &amp; Social Assistance]</li><li>“The groundwood paper market remains tight. The announced sale of Norpac to International Paper has caused some tightness. We figure intellectual property issues will eventually take Norpac out of the book market. Freight remains expensive, with gas prices and fuel surcharges starting to come through.” [Information]</li><li>“Effective commodity prices (oil) have increased about 20 percent so far in 2026.” [Mining]</li><li>“Due to rising fuel costs, a major distributor has decided to hold freight with resellers until a new contract is negotiated that addresses these increased expenses. Unfortunately, this means there will be delays that will impact our internal projects.” [Public Administration]</li><li>“Supply chain reliability for aviation parts and consumables has generally improved, but volatility in jet fuel prices — driven by geopolitical and logistics disruptions — continues to complicate forecasting and inventory planning. Wage inflation and a tight labor market for skilled personnel are increasing supplier service costs, and growing sustainability expectations are raising demand (and cost) for sustainable aviation fuel, with availability still uneven by region. Overall, conditions are more stable than during the peak of supply chain disruptions, but elevated fuel, labor and sustainability-related costs remain key factors shaping our purchasing strategy and industry outlook.” [Transportation &amp; Warehousing]</li><li>“Inflationary pressures continue to impact pricing in certain categories. General concern over supply continuity due to unprecedented demand continues in the utility space.” [Utilities]</li><li>“Capital expenditure energy projects continue to be delayed or revamped based on macroeconomic factors. Data center power generation projects are driving demand and reducing available inventory across the piping market.” [Wholesale Trade]</li></ul><p class="isSelectedEnd">Before today's report, the ISM services report showed the U.S. services sector remained in expansion through April, though the details were more mixed than the headline suggested. The Services PMI slipped to 53.6 from 54.0 in March, marking the 22nd straight month above the 50 threshold.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was 50.9</li><li>Final April reading was 51.0</li><li>Final composite PMI 51.5 vs 51.7 prelim and 51.7 prior</li></ul><p>The ISM services survey is due at the top of the hour, alongside factory orders.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Four of seven sectors expanded, down from five in April and the fewest since June 2025. Healthcare leading isn't exactly cyclical expansion so be careful with any optimism here.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Consumer Services is concerning. At 47.5 it was the sharpest contraction of any sector, and it's now shrunk in three of the last four months. This is the part of the economy that actually tracks the household — discretionary spending, the consumer's willingness to show up — and it's been bleeding since winter. Financials and Technology also slipped into contraction. So the three sectors most levered to demand, credit and risk appetite are all going the wrong way at the same time.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Basic Materials printed its fastest expansion since April 2022, Consumer Goods was robust but it could be pull-forward demand ahead of price hikes.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Basic Materials posted the steepest input-cost rise of any sector and the fastest pace of inflation in four years. So the one hot manufacturing print is tariff-distorted activity stacked on top of a four-year high in cost pressure. That's the worst possible combination if you're sitting at the Fed — activity you can't trust and prices you can.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The composition here is the message: defensives leading, the consumer rolling over, cyclicals contracting, and a manufacturing pop built on front-running and rising costs. None of that is particularly positive.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was -0.1% (revised to -0.3%)</li><li>Unit labour costs +1.4% q/q, fourth consecutive gain (+3.2% y/y)</li><li>Goods led the decline (-1.7%); ag/forestry cratered -8.6%, construction -2.3%</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Statistics Canada says business sector labour productivity fell 0.5% in Q1, the second straight quarterly drop after -0.3% in Q4. The Q4 number was revised down from -0.1% in today's report. </p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">We already know that real GDP slipped 0.1% on the quarter. Hours worked rose 0.4%. So Canadian businesses put more hours in and got less out. That's the whole productivity miss in one sentence — you're running harder to stand still.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The piece that actually matters for the Bank of Canada is buried at the bottom: unit labour costs jumped 1.4% q/q, the fourth consecutive quarterly increase, and they're now up 3.2% from a year ago. Productivity falling while hourly compensation rises 0.9% is the textbook recipe for ULC pressure, and it doesn't sit comfortably next to a central bank that's likely going to have to raise rates later this year.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Under the hood, goods-producing led the decline at -1.7%, with agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting cratering 8.6% as hours blew out 5.6% against a 3.5% output drop. Construction was the other weak spot at -2.3%. Services held up better, edging up 0.3% — retail trade (+1.5%) and transportation and warehousing (+1.6%) did the heavy lifting on the positive side.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The market reaction on this report is almost always nil. This is backward-looking Q1 data, already revised to incorporate the May 29 GDP figures, and it's not on anyone's trading screen. But it reinforces the structural picture: Canada's productivity problem hasn't gone away, ULC is accelerating into a slowing economy, and the BoC's path is getting more complicated, not less. </p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was +109K (revised to +105K)</li></ul><p>Details:</p><ul><li>Goods -3K versus +15K last month</li><li>Service +36K versus +94K last month</li><li>Small business +49K vs +65K prior</li><li>Medium businesses +10K vs +2K last month</li><li>Large businesses +40K vs +42K last month</li></ul><p>Wages:</p><ul><li>Wages for job stayers 4.4% vs 4.4% last month</li><li>Wages for job changers 6.5% vs 6.6% last month</li></ul><p>This number is very close to consensus and is essentially in-line with expectations. In terms of the macro, that's a good sign that the US economy is solid, if not turning towards strength.</p><p>ADP said hiring was more broad-based than they've seen in recent years and is showing sustained momentum.</p><p>This report adds to some of this week's optimism after a very strong JOLTS report and a good ISM manufacturing report. I see increasing risks that the US is headed towards an inflation problem fuelled by high deficits, tariffs, low immigration, the AI capex boom and a cyclical improvement.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">For background, the ADP National Employment Report tracks monthly changes in US private-sector employment, drawn from aggregated and anonymized payroll data covering more than 26 million employees, produced by ADP Research with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. It lands two days ahead of the BLS nonfarm payrolls print, though the two series correlate poorly and ADP is best read as its own signal rather than a payrolls preview.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">April delivered the strongest headline in over a year: private companies added 109,000 jobs, up from 61,000 in March and well above the Dow Jones consensus of 84,000. It was the largest increase since January 2025. But the internals tell the familiar low-hire, low-fire story. Education and health services again dominated with 61,000, trade/transportation/utilities added 25,000, and construction rose 10,000. Manufacturing managed just 2,000 despite reshoring efforts, and professional and business services shed 8,000.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The size breakdown flagged the soft middle: small firms (under 50) added 65,000 and large ones (500+) added 42,000, with weakness concentrated among mid-sized employers. The six-month moving average sits near 60,000 — firm enough to keep the Fed patient on cuts.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-president-trump-reaffirms-that-iran-has-agreed-to-not-have-a-nuclear-weapon-20260603/">US president Trump reaffirms that Iran has agreed to not have a nuclear weapon</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/iran-reserves-right-to-defend-against-any-country-permitting-us-attacks-20260603/">Iran reserves right to defend against any country permitting US attacks</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/eu-says-latest-us-tariffs-on-forced-labour-grounds-are-unjustified-20260603/">EU says latest US tariffs on forced labour grounds are unjustified</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/usdjpy-continues-to-poke-and-prod-at-intervention-strike-zone-20260603/">USD/JPY continues to poke and prod at intervention strike zone</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/boj-governor-ueda-says-will-continue-to-raise-policy-rate-if-baseline-outlook-holds-20260603/">BOJ governor Ueda says will continue to raise policy rate if baseline outlook holds</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/ecb-policymaker-elderson-says-prolonged-war-increases-likelihood-of-second-round-effects-20260603/">ECB policymaker Elderson says prolonged war increases likelihood of second-round effects</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/snb-chairman-schlegel-says-medium-term-inflation-pressure-is-basically-unchanged-20260603/">SNB Chairman Schlegel says medium-term inflation pressure is basically unchanged</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/eurozone-may-final-services-pmi-477-vs-464-prelim-20260603/">Eurozone business activity struggles further in May amid surging price pressures</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/uk-may-final-services-pmi-493-vs-479-prelim-20260603/">UK May final services PMI 49.3 vs 47.9 prelim</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/Education/how-likely-is-a-us-debt-crisis-20260603/">How likely is a U.S. debt crisis?</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>WTI crude up 2% to $95.70</li><li class="text-align-justify">European indices lower, DAX down 0.9% while CAC 40 down 0.4%</li><li class="text-align-justify">S&amp;P 500 futures down 0.1%</li><li class="text-align-justify">USD a little higher, USD/JPY volatility swings after nearing 160</li><li class="text-align-justify">US 10-year yields up 2.8 bps to 4.48%</li><li class="text-align-justify">Gold down 0.5% to $4,463</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">It was a more pensive session as we continue to wait on whether or not the US and Iran will strike a deal this week. But by the look of things, it seems that both sides are still finding it hard to meet in the middle especially on key terms.</p><p class="text-align-justify">US president Trump came out to reaffirm that Iran has agreed to not have a nuclear weapon. But as a reminder, this notion of a baseline promise was denied by Tehran previously last week already.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Besides that, he also said that the US naval blockade may stay the course until Labour Day. If so, that means it will be another three more months of this with the naval blockade being lifted supposed to be a key condition for Iran in this framework agreement. So, make what you will of that.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Markets remain unfazed for the most part despite the mix of headlines. However, oil prices are continuing to push up with WTI crude up 2% to $95.70 on the day.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In the equities space, we are seeing a more tepid mood with European indices falling off while US futures are sitting marginally lower on the day. German stocks are leading declines, with the mood music in Europe not helped by flagging PMI data which points to a Q2 economic contraction.</p><p class="text-align-justify">As for major currencies, USD/JPY saw some volatile action after attempting to knock on the door of the 160.00 level. The currency pair fell from 159.95 to a low of 159.37 before quickly recovering back now to 159.80 levels.</p><p class="text-align-justify">With traders continuing to poke and prod at the 160.00 mark, this will be an interesting one to watch in case we do see Japan decide to intervene once again to knock the pair down.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Besides that, bonds and precious metals are once again under pressure as the status quo is prolonged. 10-year Treasury yields are back up to 4.48% while gold is down 0.5% to $4,463 on the day.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Iran has agreed they will not have a nuclear weapon</li><li>Iran's supreme leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) is involved in negotiations with the US</li><li>He is the one authorising talks, will probably meet with him at some point</li><li>We have very little inflation, stock market is doing very well</li><li>Gasoline prices will fall after the conflict with Iran ends</li><li>Naval blockade on Iran could be lifted by Labour Day, but unlikely</li><li>It's likely that I'll reach some sort of agreement with Khamenei</li><li>Iran situation is rapidly evolving, will be very good</li><li>I have a good relationship with Israel prime minister Netanyahu</li><li>I was a bit perturbed at his fighting in Lebanon</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">Trump is commenting the above on a podcast interview. It looks like he is trying to continue to push the notion that Iran will have to offer up some baseline promise on nuclear arrangements before a deal is signed off. I'm not sure if that will go down well with Tehran. And even if it does eventually, I wouldn't expect Iran to stick with that promise.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Besides that, his comment on the US naval blockade is interesting. It once again reaffirms that they are not going to budge. And if so, what does it mean for the context of a deal when this is supposed to be one of Iran's red lines?</p><p class="text-align-justify">Trump's full comment:</p><p class="text-align-justify">"I don't know. I mean, I think it could be (closed through Labour Day), but I think it's unlikely. I think that we'll have it. I think this will resolve itself fairly quickly."</p><p class="text-align-justify">A reminder that US Labour Day is on 7 September. That's another three more months of this.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">Just when the EU looks to have settled one thing on the tariffs front, they are now getting thrown another curveball by the US. Yesterday, the EU parliament <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/european-parliament-votes-to-remove-import-duties-on-us-goods-to-comply-with-trade-deal-20260602/" target="_blank" rel="follow">voted in favour</a> of the legislation to remove duties on many US goods and imports.</p><p class="text-align-justify">That move is one to avoid another clash with the US on trade, essentially ratifying the trade deal from last year. It's a move that they wanted to get done quickly as Trump's reciprocal tariffs was shot down by the Supreme Court.</p><p class="text-align-justify">But now, we're seeing this put out by the administration in Washington: <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-tries-again-us-proposes-10-tariffs-on-60-nations-forced-labour-section-301-probe-20260603/" target="_blank" rel="follow">US proposes 10% tariffs on 60 nations, forced-labour Section 301 probe</a></p><p class="text-align-justify">And that is creating another ruckus on the trade front internationally.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The EU is out responding to this as calling the latest tariffs as "unjustified". Adding that it is on track to ensure the implementation of the supposed trade deal with the US by the end of June. In lieu of that, the EU says that it expects the US to "fully respect the terms of the trade deal".</p><p class="text-align-justify">In other words, sneaking in additional tariffs on other grounds is not part of that surely.</p><p class="text-align-justify">But knowing Trump, promises hardly matter and so do any deals at the end of the day. Anything that is said or done after the fact will supplant any previous agreement as and when he feels like it. Just ask China.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p class="MsoNormal">FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW</p><p class="MsoNormal">Gold is again on the backfoot as yet another rally on optimism gets faded. Tonight, Iran's IRGC launched a wave of ballistic missile attacks targeting US military bases across the Gulf, including an Air Base in Kuwait. Iranian officials described the strikes as retaliation for US actions against an oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz and military operations on Qeshm Island.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also reported attacks at multiple facilities hosting US personnel. According to US Central Command, American forces conducted "self-defense" operations, including strikes on targets on Qeshm Island in response to attempted attacks by Iran.</p><p class="MsoNormal">The ceasefire continues to look weaker by the day but a full resumption of the conflict seems unlikely. The negotiating deadlock has been dragging on for a long time and oil prices are likely to remain persistently elevated until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.</p><p class="MsoNormal">This keeps increasing the risk of a hawkish Fed. More and more policymakers are now pushing for dropping the easing bias, so we can expect that to happen at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Moreover, if nothing changes on the Strait of Hormuz side before then, we might get a hawkish surprise as inflation continues to run hot and the US data remains resilient. </p><p class="MsoNormal">In the short-term, a resolution and the reopening of the Strait will likely support gold on falling oil prices and increased rate cut bets. But if the Strait remains closed for longer and oil prices stay elevated, the risk of the Fed being forced to hike anyway increases, and that’s going to keep weighing on gold.</p><p class="MsoNormal">GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME</p><p>On the daily chart, we can see that gold is again consolidating as traders await new catalysts to push the price into either direction. We are trading right in the middle of the two key trendlines, so there’s not much we can glean from this timeframe. We need to zoom in to see some more details.</p><p class="MsoNormal">GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p>On the 4 hour chart, we have a key resistance zone around the 4,585 level where the price got rejected from several times. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the resistance and the downward trendline to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will need the price to break above the trendline to open the door for a rally into the 4,850 level next. </p><p class="MsoNormal">GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p>On the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to extend the pullback into the 4,490 zone. If the price pulls back into the zone, we can expect the sellers to step in there with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into the 4,585 resistance. The red lines define the <a href="https://investinglive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/">average daily range</a> for today. </p><p class="MsoNormal">UPCOMING CATALYSTS</p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://investinglive.com/EconomicCalendar">Today</a>, we have the US ADP report and the US ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Iran's foreign ministry condemns US strikes on Iranian tanker and Qeshm island</li><li>Stresses direct responsibility of Kuwait and Bahrain rulers for permitting attacks</li><li>Reserves right to defend against any country permitting US use of territory or airspace for attacks</li></ul><p class="isSelectedEnd">Iran's Foreign Ministry has strongly condemned US military strikes on an Iranian tanker and on Qeshm Island. Tehran also placed direct responsibility on the rulers of Kuwait and Bahrain for allowing their territory and airspace to be used in support of US military operations against Iran. The ministry said Iran reserves the right to defend itself against any country that facilitates future attacks by the United States.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">The statement comes after one of the most significant escalations in Gulf hostilities in recent months. Tonight, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched a wave of ballistic missile attacks targeting US military bases across the region, including Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait. Iranian officials described the strikes as retaliation for US actions against an oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz and military operations on Qeshm Island.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Regional tensions rapidly spread beyond Kuwait. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reported attacks, while air raid sirens sounded at multiple facilities hosting US personnel. Aviation authorities temporarily suspended flights across Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE as military forces responded to incoming attacks. </p><p class="isSelectedEnd">According to US Central Command, American forces conducted "self-defense" operations, including strikes on targets on Qeshm Island in response to attempted attacks by Iran.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Iran, however, rejected the US justification, portraying the strikes as acts of aggression and warning that any nation enabling US military operations against Iranian territory could face consequences.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">The ceasefire continues to look weaker by the day but a full resumption of the conflict seems unlikely. The negotiating deadlock has been dragging on for a long time and oil prices are likely to remain persistently elevated until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior 52.7</li><li>Final Composite PMI 49.7 vs 48.5 prelim</li><li>Prior 52.6</li></ul><p>Key findings:</p><ul><li>Business activity decreases for the first time since April 2025</li><li>Marginal falls in service sector output and new orders </li><li>Sharp increase in input prices </li><li>Business activity expectations ease to a 13-month low</li></ul><p>Comment:</p><p>Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, said: </p><p>"UK service sector companies signalled a reversal of fortunes in May as business activity fell into contraction after showing some resilience earlier this spring. Subdued business and consumer demand, across both domestic and overseas markets, was cited as holding back performance. </p><p>"Many service sector companies noted that the Middle East conflict had an adverse impact on sales pipelines and general business prospects. Those in the hospitality and transportation sectors typically commented on squeezed discretionary spending and pressure from sharply rising input costs, while professional services firms reported a setback from rising risk aversion among clients. Business investment spending on technology services remained a bright spot for parts of the service economy, however. </p><p> "A rapid acceleration in input cost pressures has been the major challenge for service providers so far this year, driven by higher fuel prices and transportation bills. The overall rate of input price inflation did ease slightly in comparison to April, but it was still higher than at any other time since the energy crisis in 2022. </p><p>"Worries about a prolonged spike in inflationary pressures, combined with elevated geopolitical tensions and subdued demand, continued to weigh on business activity expectations in May. The degree of optimism eased for the third time in four months, to its lowest since the US tariffs-related slump in April 2025."</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Services PMI 47.7 vs 46.4 prelim</li><li>Prior 47.6</li><li>Composite PMI 48.5 vs 47.5 prelim</li><li>Prior 48.8</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">Despite the troubles in France, the overall Eurozone services economy managed to hold up in May. However, private sector business activity as a whole fell to an 18-month low and marked back-to-back months of contraction for the first time since the end of 2024.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Looking to the services sector, total new order inflows fell again for a third straight month. And while slowing from April, the pace of decline was nonetheless the second-sharpest since November 2024.</p><p class="text-align-justify">On the prices front, the latest data showed a further intensification of inflationary pressures across the region. Input costs rose at the sharpest rate in three-and-half years, while charge inflation hit a 38-month high. Trouble, trouble.</p><p class="text-align-justify">S&amp;P Global notes that:</p><p class="text-align-justify">"With business activity in the eurozone falling for a second successive month in May, it is looking increasingly likely that the economy will slip into contraction in the second quarter. The PMI data are indicating a 0.2% quarterly GDP decline barring any significant change in June. </p><p class="text-align-justify">"Price pressures have meanwhile intensified to their most worrying for over three years, hinting at inflation potentially running close to 4% in the coming months. </p><p class="text-align-justify">"These price pressures will sit uncomfortably with the ECB, which will want to be seen as acting swiftly to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched. However, policymakers will also clearly be concerned that they could be hiking rates into a downturn, adding to recession risks. </p><p class="text-align-justify">"Hence, while one interest rate hike might be seen as an insurance policy, the case for further rate hikes will be harder to make if the economy continues to weaken, not least as this softening of demand will itself constrain pricing power and wage growth."</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior 46.9</li><li>Final Composite PMI 48.8 vs 48.6 prelim</li><li>Prior 48.4</li></ul><p>Key findings:</p><ul><li>Service sector remains in contraction in May, but expectations rebound</li><li>Business activity falls for second month running, albeit at a slower pace </li><li>Expectations for activity in the next 12 months rebound from April's low </li><li>Output price inflation eases despite persistent strong cost pressures</li></ul><p>Comment:</p><p>Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence: </p><p>"The service sector remained mired in contraction territory in May, thereby raising the prospect of the overall economy also slipping into contraction in the second quarter following a solid growth performance in the opening three months of the year. </p><p>"Demand for services continues to be stifled by a squeeze on spending power from the increased cost of energy and heightened levels of uncertainty, although, encouragingly, the rates of decline in business activity and new work eased, offering hope that any downturn in the economy in Q2 would be only modest. </p><p>"Services firms reported much greater optimism about the outlook than a month ago, perhaps reflecting increased hopes of an end to the Middle East conflict as well as support to the economy from government policies, though it's notable that confidence hasn't fully returned to the level seen before the war began. </p><p> "Inflationary pressures in the service sector remain elevated, but they have at least steadied. Services firms found it more difficult to raise prices in May amid reports of some pushback from clients, which points to a growing pressure on company margins. Whilst we are seeing some job losses in the service sector as firms retrench in the face of the current challenging environment, the rate of decline in employment remained modest in May and even eased slightly from the month before."</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Services PMI 44.3 vs 42.9 prelim</li><li>Prior 46.5</li><li>Composite PMI 44.9 vs 43.5 prelim</li><li>Prior 47.6</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">Even with an improvement to the initial estimates, this is still a very poor reading for French services activity. Of note, both activity and new business levels decreased at their steepest rates in five-and-a-half years with employment conditions also deteriorating at its quickest pace since early last year.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Adding more woes to the weakening business sentiment is that the French economy saw a further sharp uplift in inflationary pressures during May.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The rate of input price inflation accelerated for the third straight month in May, reaching its highest in just over three years. Meanwhile, French service providers raised their charges midway through the second quarter as rapid cost increases prompted at least some pass-through to customers. The extent to which output prices rose was the quickest since June 2023.</p><p class="text-align-justify">S&amp;P Global notes that:</p><p class="text-align-justify">"France's service sector, which had already been showing vulnerability prior to the outbreak of war in the Middle East, suffered a heavy setback in May. Further falls in the PMI measures of activity and new business took them down to levels which ring recession alarm bells.</p><p class="text-align-justify">"Geopolitical uncertainty is restricting decision-making, while surging price pressures are eroding purchasing power. It's hard to see how France's economy can spring back to life against this backdrop, strongly raising the prospect of a contraction in GDP for the second quarter."</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior 49.8</li><li>Composite PMI 50.4 vs 50.5 prior</li></ul><p>Key findings:</p><ul><li>Italian service providers face strongest cost pressures since start of 2023 </li><li>Business activity falls for third month running </li><li>New business back in contraction </li><li>Rate of cost inflation hits 40-month high</li></ul><p>Comment:</p><p>Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence: </p><p>"The Italian private sector continued to rely on the manufacturing boost brought on by panic-driven stockpiling to avoid a contraction in May. Although there was little change at the top level, if we lift the lid, we can see that the services economy is struggling in the face external challenges, contributing to dampened demand, particularly from domestic customers. </p><p>"The fate of the services sector hangs on a multitude of factors, but most heavily on the length of the war in the Middle East. The subsequent impact on inflationary pressures has been significant, and we are yet to know if the prices have reached their peak. </p><p>"Glimmers of hope can be seen in the report's employment and confidence gauges, however. Jobs growth is yet to have been derailed, and tentative improvements were seen in business optimism for the year ahead."</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Services PMI 50.1 vs 48.0 expected</li><li>Prior 47.9</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">Overall business activity in the services sector recovered in May, supported by a marginal increase in new business. So, that's some good news as demand conditions hold up despite the continued uncertainty from the Middle East conflict.</p><p class="text-align-justify">That being said, the underlying performance continues to be rather poor with the second quarter poised to be one of the worst in over five years. So, there's that to consider when viewing the headline reading as a benchmark. Mind you, Spain has always been one of the brighter spots in the euro area economy despite the struggles seen in Germany, Italy, and now France over the years.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Besides that, cost pressures remained acute in May. Of note, input prices rose considerably since April, driven mainly by increased fuel and energy costs. Meanwhile, output charges also rose in response to higher operating expenses, although competitive pressures placed some restriction on corporate pricing power.</p><p class="text-align-justify">S&amp;P Global notes that: "Input prices rose to their fastest degree since November 2022. In contrast, output price inflation fell to a three-month low, though remained above its historical trend and indicative of a marked increase in prices charged."</p><p class="text-align-justify">As such, the outlook is far from signaling an improvement and a more optimistic take on things even if activity was better than in April.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the final Services PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The data is not going to change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will likely be muted.</p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, we get the US ADP report and the US ISM Services PMI. The ADP is expected at 120K vs 109K in the prior month. The US jobs data has been pointing to a stable/strengthening labour market for months which led the Fed to shift its focus from employment mandate to the inflation one. </p><p>The ISM Services PMI is expected at 53.8 vs 53.6 in the prior month. The S&amp;P Global noted that the flash PMI data for May recorded only modest growth of business activity as demand was again squeezed by a further spike in prices and jobs were cut as firms worried over rising costs and the economic outlook. </p><p>Moreover, the agency found that input costs jumped in May at the steepest rate since late-2022 on the back of rising war-related supply constraints and steep energy cost increases. Costs were not only cited as causing lower sales but also contributed to steepening job losses and a further rise in selling price inflation to its highest since August 2022.</p><p>CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS</p><ul><li>07:20 GMT/03:20 ET - ECB's Dolenc (hawkish - voter)</li><li>08:30 GMT/04:30 ET - BoJ Governor Ueda (neutral - voter)</li><li>09:10 GMT/05:10 ET - SNB Chairman Schlegel (neutral - voter)</li><li>09:50 GMT/05:50 ET - ECB's Elderson (neutral - voter)</li><li>13:00 GMT/09:00 ET - Fed's Barr (neutral - voter)</li><li>13:30 GMT/09:30 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)</li><li>20:00 GMT/16:00 ET - Fed's Logan (hawkish - voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.