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European equities open higher to start the day
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 7:07 AM
But gains have been trimmed a tad bit compared to futures trading earlier - Eurostoxx +0.8% - Germany DAX +0.9% - France CAC 40 +0.8% - UK FTSE +0.8% - Spain IBEX +0.9% The risk mood is still slightly tilted in favour of the optimists to start the session but less so as compared to the end of Asia Pacific trading
Early optimism slightly tempered with to start European morning trade
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 6:59 AM
The positive tones abate ahead of the European cash market open Chinese stocks have erased gains and are down by 1% going into the final few minutes while Treasury yields are also a touch lower now - 10-year yields down 0.5 bps to 0.57%.
UK's Sunak: I've always been clear that we cannot protect every job
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 6:43 AM
UK finance minister, Rishi Sunak, comments on the jobs report earlier Well, the jobs report doesn't really tell us much of anything new. Jobless claims picked up again in July as employment conditions worsened but unemployment isn't deteriorating markedly considering the help by the government's furlough program.
Gold can be bolstered by fresh jewellery demand
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 6:26 AM
Recovery from India and China's markets The demand for gold from India has risen by around 25% y/y on July and almost double from June's levels as lockdowns start to ease to fight COVId-19. Any pent up demand could further realise as the peak season is still to come later this year.
Eurostoxx futures +1.1% in early European trading
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 6:10 AM
Risk-on vibes observed in early trades Positive tones as we look to get the session underway and that is helping to keep the likes of the aussie and kiwi underpinned. The mood here is largely a reflection of that from Asian trading, with US futures also slightly firmer for now.
Nikkei 225 closes higher by 1.88% at 22,750.24
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 6:02 AM
Asian equities rise following Wall Street gains overnight Japanese stocks returned from the holiday break with solid gains, as Asian equities follow the gains from Wall Street overnight. The Hang Seng is up by 2.4% while the Shanghai Composite is up by 0.4% as we look towards the closing stages.
UK July jobless claims change 94.4k vs -28.1k prior
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 6:00 AM
Latest data released by ONS - 11 August 2020 Slight delay in the release by the source. It is tough to really make sense of the figures here considering that the UK government furlough program is still largely masking underlying conditions in the economy and the labour market.
Trade ideas thread - European session 11 August 2020
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 5:32 AM
Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts That is feeding to more optimism among Asian equities today as the market continues to try and digest Trump's executive order on unemployment benefits.
Japan July economy watchers survey current conditions 41.1 vs 40.0 expected
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 5:09 AM
Latest data released by the Japanese Cabinet Office - 11 August 2020 The positive takeaway is that service sector and economic sentiment improved further in July but the outlook has deteriorated markedly amid the escalating virus situation. That will remain a key consideration that could dampen hopes of a sustained recovery.
Hong Kong goods to be labelled 'Made in China' for export to the US after 25 September - report
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 4:47 AM
SCMP reports on the matter The report cites a draft US government notice, as to saying that goods made in Hong Kong for export to the US will have to be labelled as 'Made in China' after 25 September.
Economic data coming up in the European session
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 4:23 AM
UK jobs data on the agenda today The market is keeping more cheerful after some mixed tones early yesterday, before US stocks turned things around to close higher - Nasdaq missed out, but closed the day off the lows at least. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields are now up to 0.58%.
Germany reports 966 new coronavirus cases in latest update today
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 4:05 AM
The number of active cases in the country approaches 10,000 again As of yesterday, RKI estimates the 4-day virus reproduction rate to be 1.09 while the 7-day average is estimated at 1.05. But the high side of the estimated probability has been increasing recently as seen by the chart below:
Partial data from stage 4 coronavirus lockdown Melbourne - spending slumped 17%
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 3:49 AM
Via ANZ surveying, spending in Victoria fell 12% y/y for the week to 8 August - This is the lowest result for the state since 5 May - For Melbourne the result is even worse, 17% y/y Other areas of the country that have handled the situation better have fared much more encouragingly:
Retirement village in New Zealand placed in lockdown over respiratory-type illness amongst multiple residents
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 3:16 AM
Not confirmed its the COVID-19 but its high on the list of suspects NZ media: - Christchurch retirement village - lockdown after a number of residents began displaying signs of respiratory illness.
EU’s top credit rating can survive €750bn stimulus, say ratings agencies
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 3:10 AM
Moody's and Fitch both say triple AAA status not under threat Financial Times with the article, the gist of which is: - EU's plan to issue €750bn of bonds to fund its Covid-19 recovery poses no immediate threat to the bloc's credit rating despite big divisions between member states on how to pay the money back. "Pay the
ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: AUD, NZD tick higher
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 2:57 AM
Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 11 August 2020 AUD and NZD gained against the US dollar today, each adding on around 20+ ppints over the course of the session and as I post are holding most of the gains. There was not clear catalyst although we did get some data from both countries. Australian business confidence slumped again, the survey was conducted
Riots still in Belarus after the weekend election
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 2:08 AM
There was plenty of news of this on Monday and its continuing again today. - one person is reported dead so far - people in cars are running down police
Higher AUD target is just under 0.7250
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 1:57 AM
Comments on the Australian dollar via TD:
Australia NAB business confidence -14 (prior 1) and business conditions 0 (prior -7)
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 1:30 AM
National Australia Bank Business survey for July 2020 - I did a double-take on that (lack of) confidence result The NAB survey was taken prior to Australia's second-largest city of Melbourne being plunged into 'stage 4' lockdown (survey conducted July 22-31).
White House says deeply trouble by the arrest of Jimmy Lai in Hong Kong
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 1:11 AM
Related to this yesterday: Jimmy Lai is also a leading pro-democracy advocate. He has been arrested under the new National Security Law. In that post I gave a heads up to watch for US reaction … if this is it not much of an escalation at all. Maybe there will be more to come ?
EUR/GBP end-year forecast 0.89, to fall after
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 1:03 AM
UBS on the euro against the GBP (in brief): - We expect the multi-year sideways trend of EURGBP in a 0.85-0.90 range to continue. Spikes above 0.90 so far have proven to be shortlived.
Japanese markets are back from a long weekend (Monday holiday), Nikkei stock index up 1%
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 12:24 AM
And USD/JPY popping higher also Through 106 to highs circa 106.13 as I update. Major FX a little lower against the USD almost across the board.
Australia (NSW state) 22 new cases of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 12:19 AM
The highest number in NSW in this 2nd wave. An order of magnitude below the numbers in the state of Victoria, but still not a good sign. - 4 cases in hotel quarantine
Japan July bank lending rises at its fastest pace on record
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 12:11 AM
Data from the Bank of Japan for bank lending in the July 2020 BOJ official says:
Singapore Q2 GDP -42.9% q/q (annualised) (expected -43%)
Tue, Aug 11, 2020 12:01 AM
Note that -42.9% is annualised, the economy DID NOT shrink by nearly half in Q2. Still, an ugly, ugly number. For the y/y, - down 13.2% A Singapore trade official says the outlook for domestic economy weakened slightly since May