<ul><li><a href="/news/trump-on-canada-someone-should-get-these-clowns-to-fall-in-line" rel="follow">Trump on Canada: Someone should get these clowns to “fall in line"</a></li><li><a href="/news/bessent-says-no-one-is-outside-the-reach-of-us-sanctions-on-iran-including-china" rel="follow">Bessent says no one is outside the reach of US sanctions on Iran, including China</a></li><li><a href="/forex/trump-says-50-tariffs-on-canadian-autos-coming-on-january-1-2027" rel="follow">Trump says 50% tariffs on Canadian autos coming on January 1, 2027</a></li><li><a href="/forex/canada-july-advance-manufacturing-sales-0-2" rel="follow">Canada July advance manufacturing sales -0.2%</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-set-to-impose-a-7-5-tariff-on-chinese-goods-report" rel="follow">US set to impose a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods - report</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold up $51 to $4653</li><li>US 10-year yields down 3.2 bps to 4.71%</li><li>WTI crude oil down $2.02 to $85.04</li><li>USD leads, CAD lags</li><li>S&amp;P 500 down 0.3%</li></ul><p>The US dollar started the day soft but steadily climbed back. The turn came as Bessent spoke and delivered more threats on Iran than actual sanctions and a plan that was lightly throught through. In addition, his comments on the bond market sounded less like someone who wanted a real battle.</p><p>USD/CAD was in focus but the pair mostly took the drama in stride. The loonie lagged and that was worsened by falling oil but so far, the war of words hasn't escalated into much. The most-telling detail might have been a comment from VP Vance that negotiations are continuing. When you break down the disagreements, they're not far apart so we will see where it all lands.</p><p></p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/news/trump-on-canada-someone-should-get-these-clowns-to-fall-in-line" rel="follow">Trump on Canada: Someone should get these clowns to “fall in line"</a></li><li><a href="/news/bessent-says-no-one-is-outside-the-reach-of-us-sanctions-on-iran-including-china" rel="follow">Bessent says no one is outside the reach of US sanctions on Iran, including China</a></li><li><a href="/forex/trump-says-50-tariffs-on-canadian-autos-coming-on-january-1-2027" rel="follow">Trump says 50% tariffs on Canadian autos coming on January 1, 2027</a></li><li><a href="/forex/canada-july-advance-manufacturing-sales-0-2" rel="follow">Canada July advance manufacturing sales -0.2%</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-set-to-impose-a-7-5-tariff-on-chinese-goods-report" rel="follow">US set to impose a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods - report</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold up $51 to $4653</li><li>US 10-year yields down 3.2 bps to 4.71%</li><li>WTI crude oil down $2.02 to $85.04</li><li>USD leads, CAD lags</li><li>S&amp;P 500 down 0.3%</li></ul><p>The US dollar started the day soft but steadily climbed back. The turn came as Bessent spoke and delivered more threats on Iran than actual sanctions and a plan that was lightly throught through. In addition, his comments on the bond market sounded less like someone who wanted a real battle.</p><p>USD/CAD was in focus but the pair mostly took the drama in stride. The loonie lagged and that was worsened by falling oil but so far, the war of words hasn't escalated into much. The most-telling detail might have been a comment from VP Vance that negotiations are continuing. When you break down the disagreements, they're not far apart so we will see where it all lands.</p><p></p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>I previewed the Reserve Bank of Australia August meeting minutes here:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/rba-minutes-due-tuesday-to-detail-hike-versus-hold-debate-after-august-pause" target="_blank" rel="follow">RBA minutes due Tuesday to detail hike-versus-hold debate after August pause</a></li></ul><p>Otherwise a quiet fort of data agenda ahead:</p><p></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>US Vice President JD Vance said today that trade negotiations with Canada remain ongoing in something of a turnabout that's a hint that not everything is lost. Notably, Canada's counter-tariffs won't go into effect until Sept 7 and Trump is threatening Jan 1 tariffs on auto parts. The longer Canadian timeline and even-longer Trump timeline, suggest that both don't want to push things too far now.</p><p>I'm reminded of this great graphic from BCA, which is also a Canadian firm, it sketched out Trump's negotiating tactics based on plenty of precedents.&nbsp;</p><p></p><p>You can even read today's message about Doug Ford as one where Trump doesn't actually want to escalate and wants a deal. But he doesn't want to be embarassed and used as a punching bag by Ford. The implicit message is "let's dial this back" and talk.&nbsp;</p><p>Now is this tradeable? I think we all know that Trump is utterly unpredictable and that what worked before is never a guarantee of working again. He is getting some pressure from Senators and Governors in border states not to escalate and he has plenty on his plate. We will have to see where the real lines are but Vance saying they're still talking could be telling.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Trump is upset about comments from Doug Ford, who is the Premier of the province of Ontario (the largest province and home to much of Canada's manufacturing sector).</p><p>Trump writes:</p><blockquote>Lots of “bluster” from Doug Ford, who is the Premier of the Canadian Province of Ontario, but who is better known as the less charismatic, intelligent, and overall unimpressive brother of the late, great, Rob Ford. America has been carrying Canada for decades, but no longer! The U.S.A. will always be far bigger, richer, and stronger than Canada. Without the United States, Canada couldn’t survive — It’s where they get all of their money and, because of their current bad leadership, primarily Governor Carney, and his Flunky, Ford, they will not be allowed to keep taking advantage of the United States — Their key to survival. Remember, much of the Electricity, Oil, and Gas that Canada gets is transported through the U.S.A. Someone should get these clowns to “fall in line” or, the consequences for Canada will be far WORSE! Canada’s Unemployment Rate is now at 10%, and rapidly rising. Their businesses are fleeing for the United States, and it’s all because of their failed policies, and inept leadership! The days of ripping off our Farmers, and other Businesses, are OVER! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP</blockquote><p>The stuff about Rob Ford is pretty funny as he as literally a crackhead and the former Mayor of Toronto. Doug is a noted teetotaller.&nbsp;</p><p>The interesting threat here is cutting off pipelines and other lines that run across borders. The interesting one is Line 5, which is a long-term fight Enbridge has been having with the US courts.</p><p>Earlier, Ford said Trump "can kiss my ass" and that&nbsp;Ronald Reagan would be "throwing up" over Trump's policies. He said Canada should be ready to cut electricity exports to the US.</p><p>USD/CAD was last up 93 pips to 1.3857, it's been creeping higher in the US afternoon on a broader USD bid.</p><p>For what it's worth, Canada's unemployment rate is 6.4%. Canada also counts several groups count as unemployed that the US non-farm payrolls report generally treats as outside the labour force. That generally takes about 1 percentage point off the top.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Trump is calling leaders to ask them to cut ties with Iran</li><li>Wants 'zero leakage' on sanctions</li><li>Countries will ahve a finite timeline to shut down activities we have identified, if they don't we will use Treasury authorities</li><li>Will not set specific timelines for cutting ties, we don't have infinite patience</li><li>Every country should be prepared to face US sanctions if they support Iran</li><li>I expect a major financial institution to be sanctioned this week</li><li>Do not take use of secondary sanctions lightly</li><li>Would like Canada to come to the table and negotiate in good faith</li></ul><p>I'm surprised to see oil lower today. There is a real debate on how much oil Iran is blocking in the Strait but eventually it's a number that matters and the US has entered some kind of war of attrition.</p><p>On the bond market, says Treasury hasn't bought back a single bond yet btu the first operation will be Sept 9.</p><p>Update: This was a great exchange.</p><p>Reporter: You described this as an economic D-Day, but D-Day wasn't a threat of an invasion and the US didn't give a timeline to Germany. So why not impose the sanctions today? </p><p>Bessent: Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-24/us-eyes-china-overcapacity-tariffs-of-7-5-before-xi-trump-talks?srnd=homepage-canada" rel="follow">reports </a>that Trump will impose a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods ahead of talks next month.</p><p>I'm imagine the report could scuttle the talks, which cites people familiar.&nbsp;</p><p>The move would restore Trump’s second-term duties on China to around 20%, though that would still be consistent with a level China has previously tolerated. </p><p>Trump and Xi are due to meet in Washington on Sept. 24.</p><p>Ultimately, this might be more of a technical move in response to the Supreme Court striking down some US tariffs. In July, Trump&nbsp;imposed a 12.5% tariff on Chinese goods, citing inadequate efforts to address forced labor practices. In response Beijing said Washington had agreed to cap any additional duties on Chinese exports at 20%.</p><p>“We hope that the US will honor its commitments, ensuring that regardless of the reasons given for imposing or replacing tariffs on China in the future, US tariffs on China will not exceed the levels outlined in the Kuala Lumpur trade consultations,” China’s Ministry of Commerce said in May.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Full article <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/24/bessent-1-trillion-treasury-general-account-bond-buybacks.html" rel="follow">here</a></li></ul><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">According to CNBC, the US Treasury is considering using its Treasury General Account (TGA), the government's cash account at the Federal Reserve, currently holding nearly $1 trillion, to help finance its recently announced purchases of longer-dated Treasury bonds.</p><p>Markets initially assumed the Treasury would fund the bond-buying program by issuing more short-term bills, consistent with Treasury Secretary Bessent's description of the operation as a "Treasury Twist". However, senior Treasury officials indicated that the TGA is also available as a funding source and did not rule out using it.</p><p>Using the TGA would significantly increase the Treasury's ability to influence long-term yields because the funds are already available from tax receipts and do not require new debt issuance. This could address market skepticism about whether the buyback program is large enough to meaningfully lower yields.</p><p>Officials did not specify how much of the TGA might be used or when a decision could be announced, but they emphasized that the option is on the table. Since the TGA balance is well above the levels maintained under the previous administration, the Treasury has room to draw it down without creating immediate funding risks.</p><p>This looks like another "verbal" intervention to suppress the rise in long-term Treasury yields after they reversed the drop following the buyback announcement on Wednesday. This is supportive for the 'debasement' trades (long gold, bitcoin and short US dollar), and could make the Jackson Hole event even more interesting.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/commodities/gold-remains-supported-into-jackson-hole-event-after-us-treasury-ignited-debasement-trades" rel="follow">Gold remains supported into Jackson Hole event after US Treasury ignited 'debasement' trades</a></li><li><a href="/education/primexbt-guide-to-trading-costs-spreads-fees-and-swap-free-trading" rel="follow">PrimeXBT Guide to Trading Costs: Spreads, Fees, and Swap-Free Trading</a></li><li><a href="/technical-analysis/this-nasdaq-futures-analysis-shows-how-to-trade-nasdaq-today" rel="follow">This Nasdaq futures analysis shows how to trade Nasdaq today</a></li><li><a href="/forex/the-indian-rupee-is-set-to-revisit-record-lows-as-us-iran-deadlock-extends-tensions-rise" rel="follow">The Indian rupee is set to revisit record lows as US-Iran deadlock extends, tensions rise</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/ecb-policymaker-cipollone-says-inflation-is-far-from-the-ecb-adverse-and-severe-scenarios" rel="follow">ECB policymaker Cipollone says inflation is far from the ECB adverse and severe scenarios</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-bull-flag-analysis-see-this-video-after-the-79-460-surge" rel="follow">Bitcoin Bull Flag Analysis: See this video after the $79,460 surge</a></li><li><a href="/forex/the-canadian-dollar-falls-across-the-board-as-trade-talks-collapse-and-us-50-tariffs-take-effect" rel="follow">The Canadian dollar falls across the board as trade talks collapse and US 50% tariffs take effect</a></li><li><a href="/forex/market-outlook-for-the-week-of-24th-28th-august" rel="follow">Market outlook for the week of 24th-28th August</a></li><li><a href="/orders/fx-option-expiries-for-24-august-10am-new-york-cut" rel="follow">FX option expiries for 24 August 10am New York cut</a></li><li><a href="/news/what-are-the-main-events-for-today-26" rel="follow">What are the main events for today?</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/rba-minutes-due-tuesday-to-detail-hike-versus-hold-debate-after-august-pause" rel="follow">RBA minutes due Tuesday to detail hike-versus-hold debate after August pause</a></li></ul><p>It's been a very light session with no data or news whatsoever. We just got some comments from ECB's Cipollone reiterating that the current inflation conditions in the Eurozone are far from the ECB's severe and adverse scenarios, while adding that stagflation remains a remote scenario. Other than that, there's been nothing.</p><p>In the markets, it's been kind of the same thing, with rangebound price action almost across the board. The most notable mover has been the Canadian dollar as the currency extended the losses following the surprise trade-talks collapse.&nbsp;</p><p>In the American session, the only notable event is US Treasury Secretary Bessent's press conference at 2 pm ET where he's expected to unveil the 'toughest' sanctions in history against Iran. I think most of it is already priced in given that it was telegraphed a week in advance, but you never know.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, we don't have anything on the agenda today, with markets likely consolidating or extending the trends started with the Treasury buyback. The most important event this week will be Fed Chair Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.</p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, the only notable event is US Treasury Secretary Bessent's press conference at 2 pm ET where he's expected to unveil the 'toughest' sanctions in history against Iran.&nbsp;I think most of it is already priced in given that it was telegraphed a week in advance, but you never know.&nbsp;</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/commodities/icymi-india-gold-imports-double-in-july-as-wgc-flags-demand-recovery" rel="follow">ICYMI - India gold imports double in July as WGC flags demand recovery</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/ing-says-fiscal-credibility-fears-drive-gold-back-to-above-4-600-an-ounce" rel="follow">ING says fiscal credibility fears drive gold back to above $4,600 an ounce</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/weekend-hormuz-traffic-thins-to-fewer-than-20-vessels-kpler-data-shows" rel="follow">Weekend Hormuz traffic thins to fewer than 20 vessels, Kpler data shows</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-for-today-at-6-vs-estimate-at-6-7248" rel="follow">PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7841 (vs. estimate at 6.7248)</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/icymi-goldman-says-options-demand-could-push-gold-past-4-900-forecast" rel="follow">ICYMI: Goldman says options demand could push gold past $4,900 forecast</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/gold-hits-a-3-month-above-4640-then-get-slammed-50-lower-under-4600" rel="follow">Gold hits a 3 month above $4640 ... then get slammed $50 lower under $4600</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/nz-main-opposition-party-pledges-to-restore-rbnz-dual-mandate-on-employment-if-elected" rel="follow">NZ main opposition party pledges to restore RBNZ dual mandate on employment if elected</a></li><li><a href="/stock-market-update/trump-made-1-000-plus-stock-trades-in-june-amid-iran-war-tariff-fights" rel="follow">Trump made 1,000-plus stock trades in June amid Iran war, tariff fights</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/oil-eases-on-globex-after-weekend-iran-escalation-and-sanctions-threats" rel="follow">Oil eases on Globex after weekend Iran escalation and sanctions threats</a></li><li><a href="/stock-market-update/trump-says-military-is-ultimate-intervention-for-bond-market-turmoil" rel="follow">Trump says military is "ultimate intervention" for bond market turmoil</a></li><li><a href="/news/new-zealand-q2-retail-sales-have-slowed-much-worse-than-expected" rel="follow">New Zealand Q2 retail sales have slowed much worse than expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/retail-sales-data-due-from-new-zealand-imminently" rel="follow">Retail sales data due from New Zealand imminently</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/bessent-to-unveil-toughest-iran-sanctions-as-rezaei-threatens-total-oil-halt" rel="follow">Bessent to unveil "toughest" Iran sanctions as Rezaei threatens total oil halt</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/goldman-flags-china-stimulus-risk-as-growth-slips-further-below-target" rel="follow">Goldman flags China stimulus risk as growth slips further below target</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/weekend-fed-s-kashkari-says-bond-market-functioning-well-despite-yield-rise" rel="follow">Weekend - Fed's Kashkari says bond market functioning well despite yield rise</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/going-nuclear-iran-security-chief-warns-tehran-may-seek-nuclear-weapons-after-us-strikes" rel="follow">Going nuclear ... Iran security chief warns Tehran may seek nuclear weapons after US strikes</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/iran-dismisses-new-us-sanctions-as-desperate-as-hormuz-shipping-standstill-continues" rel="follow">Iran dismisses new US sanctions as desperate as Hormuz shipping standstill continues</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-canada-trade-talks-collapse-as-50-tariffs-take-effect-carney-vows-retaliation" rel="follow">US-Canada trade talks collapse as 50% tariffs take effect, Carney vows retaliation</a></li><li><a href="/forex/monday-open-indicative-forex-prices-24-august-2026-cad-weaker-on-trade-war" rel="follow">Monday open indicative forex prices, 24 August 2026 - CAD weaker on trade war</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/is-bitcoin-at-77k-preparing-for-another-breakout-this-btcusd-analysis-shows-a-a-potential-bull-flag-pointing-to-84k-86k" rel="follow">Is Bitcoin at $77k preparing for another breakout? This BTCUSD analysis shows a a potential bull flag pointing to $84K-$86K</a></li><li><a href="/news/investinglive-americas-fx-news-wrap-21-aug-trump-folds-on-beef-tariffs-0" rel="follow">investingLive Americas FX news wrap 21 Aug: Trump folds on beef tariffs.</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>Iran: Bessent's toughest-ever sanctions announcement, Rezaei's nuclear rhetoric and oil export halt threat, and thin weekend Hormuz shipping data remain in focus.</li><li>Oil prices eased a little lower.</li><li>Canada: Carney's team sees little chance of resumed talks before the US midterms and is preparing an aid package to outlast Trump's term if needed; USTR Greer says no talks are scheduled; USD/CAD gapped higher in early Asia trade.</li><li>Goldman flags China stimulus risk as growth slips further below target.</li><li>Fed's Kashkari, in weekend remarks, downplayed rising Treasury yields, saying the bond market is functioning well.</li><li>New Zealand retail sales contracted 0.5% in Q2, the first quarterly decline since Q3 2024, ahead of the RBNZ's September 2 meeting where a rate hike is expected.</li><li>Asia-Pacific equities opened broadly lower: the KOSPI opened down 0.7% and fell as much as 3% intraday, while the Nikkei 225 opened down 0.2%.</li><li>Gold traded volatile but rose on the session to a more than three-month high.</li></ul><p dir="ltr"> Markets moved cautiously into the new week, weighing an escalating standoff with Iran, a deepening trade impasse between the US and Canada, and fresh concerns over the pace of China's economic growth. The mix of geopolitical and macro headwinds left risk sentiment mixed across Asia-Pacific markets on Monday.</p><p dir="ltr">Iran remained the dominant thread. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is due to unveil what he has called the toughest sanctions in history against Tehran, part of the broader economic pressure campaign the Trump administration has termed an economic D-Day. Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, has warned that any country cooperating with the sanctions would be treated as an act of war and has threatened to halt all oil exports through the Persian Gulf if the pressure campaign continues. Separately, Rezaei has suggested Tehran could reconsider its non-nuclear posture, accusing Washington of increasing global interest in nuclear weapons. Weekend shipping data showed fewer than 20 commodity vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, though the figures remain subject to revision given incomplete transponder tracking. Oil prices eased a little lower against that backdrop.</p><p dir="ltr">The US-Canada trade relationship showed further signs of a prolonged freeze. Ottawa's negotiating team sees little prospect of resumed talks before the US midterm elections and is preparing a domestic aid package designed to support Canadian businesses for as long as necessary, potentially outlasting Trump's entire term. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said it is hard to say when talks might resume and confirmed none are currently scheduled, a stance that mirrors Ottawa's own lowered expectations. USD/CAD opened with a gap higher in early Asia trade, reflecting the deteriorating outlook for a near-term resolution.</p><p dir="ltr">Elsewhere, Goldman Sachs flagged renewed stimulus risk in China after growth slipped further below Beijing's annual target, reviving expectations for monetary easing even as officials have so far signalled only incremental support measures. In the US, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari used weekend remarks to downplay concerns over rising Treasury yields, saying the bond market continues to function well despite the recent climb in borrowing costs.</p><p dir="ltr">In New Zealand, retail sales contracted 0.5% in the second quarter, the first quarterly decline since the third quarter of 2024, ahead of the Reserve Bank's September 2 meeting, where a rate hike is expected. Asia-Pacific equities opened broadly lower on the combined weight of these developments, with South Korea's KOSPI index opening down 0.7% before falling as much as 3% intraday, and Japan's Nikkei 225 opening down 0.2%. Gold traded volatile through the session but ultimately rose, reaching a more than three-month high as investors sought safety amid the accumulating geopolitical and macro uncertainty.</p><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>New Zealand Retail Sales Q2 2026:</p><p>+3.3% y/y</p><ul><li>prior +4.5%</li></ul><p> -0.5% q/q</p><ul><li>expected +0.1%, prior +0.9%</li></ul><p>NZD is little changed circa 0.5973</p><p><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/retail-sales-data-due-from-new-zealand-imminently/" rel="follow">Background here.&nbsp;</a></p><p></p><p></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>New Zealand data soon. Despite the pick up in retail sales in Q1 today's data is expected to be much slower. Fuel prices rocketing will weigh.&nbsp;</p><p></p><p></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">The breakdown reintroduces cross-border trade risk into North American markets just as investors had begun pricing in a de-escalation after weeks of negotiation. The <a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/monday-open-indicative-forex-prices-24-august-2026-cad-weaker-on-trade-war/" rel="follow">Canadian dollar</a> has come under renewed pressure, with commentary pointing to a slide toward the low 70s against the US dollar, though that figure should be checked against a primary data feed rather than taken at face value. Steel, dairy and electronics exporters on both sides face the most direct exposure once Canada's retaliatory measures land on September 8. With formal USMCA renewal talks already underway with Mexico but not yet started with Canada, traders may read Ottawa's absence from that process as a signal of prolonged uncertainty rather than a swift resolution. Energy markets remain a watchpoint given the sector's historic sensitivity to any broadening of tariff scope.</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr"> A three-day Washington summit ended in collapse, reigniting the North American trade war with tariffs now live and retaliation locked in for September.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>Talks between US and Canadian negotiators collapsed late Friday after three days in Washington, despite Trump saying earlier in the week that a deal had "pretty much" been struck.</li><li>The US imposed 50% tariffs on about $20bn of Canadian goods, roughly 5% of Canada's total exports to the US, covering items such as wooden hockey sticks.</li><li>Carney says Canada will match the tariffs dollar for dollar, with retaliation on US steel, dairy and electronics starting September 8.</li><li>Carney called the US move "a miscalculation," accusing Washington of "uneconomic" and "unfair" demands.</li><li>USTR Jamieson Greer said Canada declined to finalise a deal that included aerospace supply chain coordination, critical minerals cooperation and a path to USMCA renegotiation.</li><li>Formal USMCA renewal talks have begun with Mexico but not with Canada, leaving the timeline for de-escalation unclear.</li></ul><p dir="ltr"> Trade talks between the United States and Canada collapsed late Friday night in Washington, ending three days of negotiation and reigniting a trade war that has simmered since early 2025. The breakdown came just hours after President Trump told reporters that negotiators had "pretty much" struck a deal, even as officials from both sides continued working through a series of unresolved issues into the evening, according to CNBC.</p><p dir="ltr">With no agreement reached before a midnight deadline, the US moved ahead with 50% tariffs on roughly $20bn worth of Canadian goods, about 5% of the total value Canada ships to the US annually. The list includes a wide mix of products, among them wooden hockey sticks, according to CNN. Analysts note the tariffs are unlikely on their own to meaningfully affect American consumers, who are already dealing with elevated fuel costs, but the larger significance lies in the reopening of hostilities between two economies that had spent months trying to stabilise their relationship.</p><p dir="ltr">Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded within hours, framing the US action in stark terms. Speaking in Ottawa, he said Canada would match the new tariffs "dollar for dollar" beginning September 8, with retaliatory measures targeting US steel, dairy and electronics. At a press conference, Carney described the tariffs as an act of aggression, saying "you're at war when you get attacked, we got attacked," according to NPR. In separate remarks carried by Reuters and CNBC, he called the US decision "a miscalculation," blaming the collapse of talks on what he characterised as "uneconomic" and "unfair" demands from Washington.</p><p dir="ltr">The US side placed responsibility squarely on Canada. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement that Canada "declined to finalize the trade deal under the terms agreed earlier this week." Greer outlined what the shelved offer would have delivered, including supply chain coordination on aerospace, cooperation on critical minerals, tighter enforcement against goods produced with forced labour, and the formal opening of USMCA renegotiation talks. Trump added to the exchange overnight, posting that Canada wanted "the benefits of being a State, without being one."</p><p dir="ltr">The dispute complicates the broader push to renew the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Formal renegotiation talks have already begun between Washington and Mexico City, but discussions with Ottawa have not started, and this weekend's escalation casts fresh doubt on when, or whether, they will. For now, both governments appear locked into a retaliatory cycle, with the September 8 deadline for Canada's countermeasures set to be the next flashpoint to watch.&nbsp;</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/technical-analysis/nasdaq-and-s-p-indices-are-settling-between-risk-bias-defining-mas-as-the-week-comes-to-a-close" rel="follow">Nasdaq and S&amp;P indices are settling between risk/bias defining MAs as the week comes to a close</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/baker-hughes-rig-count-5-at-588" rel="follow">Baker Hughes rig count -5 at 588</a></li><li><a href="/technical-analysis/european-stocks-rebound-friday-but-weekly-losses-dominate" rel="follow">European stocks rebound Friday, but weekly losses dominate</a></li><li><a href="/news/brazil-s-lula-us-trump-held-phone-call-on-friday" rel="follow">Brazil's Lula and US Pres. Trump held phone call on Friday.</a></li><li><a href="/technical-analysis/gold-surges-and-breaks-away-from-its-200-day-ma" rel="follow">Gold surges and breaks away from its 200 day MA</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/snb-tschudin-swiss-inflation-is-low-because-of-low-inflation-expectations" rel="follow">SNB Tschudin: Swiss inflation is low because of low inflation expectations</a></li><li><a href="/news/trump-gets-rid-of-26-4-tariffs-on-imported-beef-and-prices-will-come-down-by-25" rel="follow">Trump: Gets rid of 26.4% tariffs on imported beef and prices will come down by 25%</a></li><li><a href="/news/eu-consumer-confidence-15-5-versus-16-3-expected" rel="follow">EU consumer confidence -15.5 versus -16.3 expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/canada-retail-sales-for-june-0-6-vs-0-4-estimate" rel="follow">Canada Retail sales for June 0.6% vs 0.4% estimate</a></li><li><a href="/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-north-american-session-the-usd-is-lower-vs-the-3-major-currency-pairs" rel="follow">Kickstart the North American session: The USD is lower vs the 3 major currency pairs.</a></li><li><a href="/news/investinglive-european-markets-wrap-gold-runs-higher-dollar-stays-under-pressure" rel="follow">investingLive European markets wrap: Gold runs higher, dollar stays under pressure</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-this-week-s-events-2" rel="follow">How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?</a></li></ul><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">One of the more interesting stories in the North American session was President Trump’s apparent reversal on beef tariffs as the administration looks for ways to bring down sharply higher beef prices.</p><p>Go to a grocery store in the U.S. and a pound of ground beef can now cost around $10 for an 85/15 blend. Beef prices have risen much faster than overall food inflation, and like gasoline, beef is something American consumers buy in large quantities and notice immediately when prices rise.</p><p>That brings Brazil into the picture.</p><p>Brazil is the world’s largest beef exporter. The Trump administration has used tariffs both to "generate revenue" and "protect U.S. producers" from foreign competition. They have not protected the US consumer as at the same time, the U.S. cattle herd has fallen. Drought, higher feed and energy costs, labor constraints (i.e. stopping of immigrants especially in farming) that by bad bad bad bad my office here but I have athe back back back back back back back back back back back back back back back and the expense of rebuilding herds have restricted domestic beef supplies. Demand has remained relatively strong, increasing the need for imported beef.</p><p>For Brazilian beef, once the applicable low-tariff quota is exhausted, imports have generally faced a 26.4% out-of-quota tariff.</p><p>Now Trump appears ready to remove that obstacle.</p><p>Trump announced that the U.S. would allow as much as 300,000 metric tons of additional ground beef imports over the next 90 days without triggering the 26.4% out-of-quota tariff. Trump also said the imported beef would help bring prices down by around 25%.</p><p>The numbers are hard to ignore: Trump is talking about prices potentially falling by roughly 25% while removing a tariff of 26.4% on the marginal imported beef.</p><p>Adding another piece to the puzzle, Brazil acknowledged that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spoke with Trump earlier in the day.</p><p>Connecting the dots, the U.S. needs additional beef supply. The domestic cattle herd is historically tight, rebuilding it takes years rather than months, and consumers are already dealing with elevated food and energy costs. Increasing imports offers the administration a quicker avenue for trying to bring ground-beef prices down.</p><p>That potentially puts Brazil, the world's largest beef exporter, in a strong position to supply some of that additional demand.</p><p>So, at least when it comes to beef, the tariff story may be coming full circle: tariffs were raised in part to protect domestic producers, but tight U.S. supplies and high consumer prices are now pushing the administration toward tariff relief to encourage more imports.</p><p>It also puts the inflation debate surrounding tariffs back into focus. Removing a 26.4% tariff specifically to facilitate cheaper imports and lower consumer prices illustrates the mechanism through which tariffs can raise the domestic cost of imported goods. That doesn't mean tariffs alone caused the surge in beef prices—the shrinking U.S. cattle herd and tight supply are major factors—but it does make the tariff itself part of the price equation, that all things being equal will reduce tariff income but should lead to lower imported prices to importers who are satisfying demand.&nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p>If domestic demand can not be met by domestic supply and tariffs are imposed on imported goods, imported inflation will make it's way into prices.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>Looking at other economic news today,&nbsp;<ul><li>Canada’s June retail sales came in stronger than expected, rising 0.6% versus the 0.4% forecast, while May was revised higher to +1.1%. Sales excluding autos increased 0.5%, also slightly above expectations, while sales volumes rose a solid 1.5%. The underlying details were generally positive, with core retail sales rising 1.2% for a second consecutive month, led by general merchandise and clothing-related retailers. Motor vehicle and parts sales rose 1.0%, while gasoline station sales fell sharply. Regionally, sales increased in seven provinces, led by Ontario, while Alberta posted the largest decline.&nbsp; Looking ahead, Statistics Canada’s advance estimate points to another 0.8% increase in July, suggesting consumer spending maintained momentum into the third quarter.</li><li><p>The S&amp;P Global flash PMI data for August pointed to stronger overall U.S. economic activity, despite manufacturing coming in below expectations. Manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.2 versus 53.9 expected, but remained comfortably above the 50 expansion threshold.&nbsp; The strength came from services, where PMI jumped to 56.8 versus 54.0 expected, lifting the composite PMI to 56.0 from 54.5. All three measures remain in expansion territory.&nbsp; S&amp;P Global characterized U.S. business activity as the strongest in more than four years, with the surveys pointing to annualized Q3 growth approaching 3% versus 1.5% in Q2. Employment also improved, although supply disruptions and elevated price pressures remain risks. Overall, the report suggests growth momentum has shifted from manufacturing toward the much larger services sector.</p></li></ul><p>The better economic data, the increasing budget deficits, and the insatiable demand for capital by private companies to fund AI expansion are contributing factors despite the US Treasuries actions this week. On Wednesday,Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent surprised markets this week by doubling the size of Treasury’s long-term bond buybacks, increasing the maximum purchase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. </p><p>The key points:</p><ul><li> Treasury will increase purchases of 10-year and longer-dated securities. </li><li> The larger buybacks are scheduled to begin in September. </li><li> Bessent indicated that the $4 billion amount could be increased further if needed. </li><li> The purchases primarily target older, less-liquid Treasury securities. </li><li> Buying those bonds provides support to prices and can put downward pressure on longer-term yields. </li></ul><p>The amounts themselves are relatively small compared with the overall Treasury market. However, the announcement caught markets by surprise because it signaled that Treasury may be willing to become more active at the long end of the yield curve.</p><p>Importantly, this is not Fed quantitative easing (QE). Treasury is managing its existing debt rather than creating money to purchase securities. Still, the prospect of larger Treasury purchases helped push long-term yields lower at least temporarily, and contributed to the sharp selling pressure on the U.S. dollar. Yields today, however, did move back to the upside and yields are also higher on the week. A snapshot of the market shows:</p><p></p><ul><li> 2-year: 4.240%, +5.5 bps</li><li> 5-year: 4.426%, +3.9 bps</li><li> 10-year: 4.736%, +3.8 bps</li><li> 30-year: 5.276%, +3.9 bps</li></ul><p>For the trading week:</p><ul><li>2 year yield rose 6.9 basis point</li><li>5 year yield rose 6.6 basis points</li><li>10 year yield rose 4.4 basis points</li><li>30 year yield rose 1.5 basis points&nbsp;</li></ul><p></p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">The U.S. dollar is ending the week mostly lower against the major currencies, with the Swiss franc the only currency against which the greenback gained on the day.</p><p>The biggest USD declines came against the commodity currencies. The Australian dollar rose 0.82%, while the New Zealand dollar gained 0.52%. The Canadian dollar also strengthened, with the USD falling 0.18% against the loonie.</p><p>Elsewhere, the moves were more modest. The Japanese yen gained 0.08%, while the euro and British pound were little changed, rising 0.01% and 0.03%, respectively. The USDs only advance was a 0.10% rise against the Swiss franc.</p><p>The mostly weaker finish caps a difficult week for the dollar, highlighted by the sharp midweek decline following the Treasury's decision to expand its long-dated bond buyback program.</p><p>US stocks rose to end the week but for the week, the major indices fell.&nbsp; For the trading day:&nbsp;</p><p></p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Dow Industrial Average is closing up 518.05 points or 0.98% at 53282.32</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">S&amp;P is closing up 33.17 points or 0.43% at 7674.32</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Nasdaq index is closing up 113.29 points or 0.43% at 26180.45</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Russell 2000 is up 25 443 points or 0.85% at 3017.87</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">NASDAQ 100 is up 95.69 points or 0.33% at 29308.86.</li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">For the trading week:</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Dow industrial average -0.85%</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">S&amp;P -1.43%</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Nasdaq index -2.05%</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Russell 2000 -1.64%</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Nasdaq 100 -2.45%</li></ul><p>Gold benefited from the lower dollar this week and today. The precious metal rose $84.21 or 1.86% to $4602.66.&nbsp; Silver was also higher with a gain of $0.88 or 1.30% at $68.95.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Bitcoin had its best week since March of 2023 with a gain of 25% to $78,640. The price surged by an additional 7.76% today.&nbsp;</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer"></p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/technical-analysis/nasdaq-and-s-p-indices-are-settling-between-risk-bias-defining-mas-as-the-week-comes-to-a-close" rel="follow">Nasdaq and S&amp;P indices are settling between risk/bias defining MAs as the week comes to a close</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/baker-hughes-rig-count-5-at-588" rel="follow">Baker Hughes rig count -5 at 588</a></li><li><a href="/technical-analysis/european-stocks-rebound-friday-but-weekly-losses-dominate" rel="follow">European stocks rebound Friday, but weekly losses dominate</a></li><li><a href="/news/brazil-s-lula-us-trump-held-phone-call-on-friday" rel="follow">Brazil's Lula and US Pres. Trump held phone call on Friday.</a></li><li><a href="/technical-analysis/gold-surges-and-breaks-away-from-its-200-day-ma" rel="follow">Gold surges and breaks away from its 200 day MA</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/snb-tschudin-swiss-inflation-is-low-because-of-low-inflation-expectations" rel="follow">SNB Tschudin: Swiss inflation is low because of low inflation expectations</a></li><li><a href="/news/trump-gets-rid-of-26-4-tariffs-on-imported-beef-and-prices-will-come-down-by-25" rel="follow">Trump: Gets rid of 26.4% tariffs on imported beef and prices will come down by 25%</a></li><li><a href="/news/eu-consumer-confidence-15-5-versus-16-3-expected" rel="follow">EU consumer confidence -15.5 versus -16.3 expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/canada-retail-sales-for-june-0-6-vs-0-4-estimate" rel="follow">Canada Retail sales for June 0.6% vs 0.4% estimate</a></li><li><a href="/technical-analysis/kickstart-the-north-american-session-the-usd-is-lower-vs-the-3-major-currency-pairs" rel="follow">Kickstart the North American session: The USD is lower vs the 3 major currency pairs.</a></li><li><a href="/news/investinglive-european-markets-wrap-gold-runs-higher-dollar-stays-under-pressure" rel="follow">investingLive European markets wrap: Gold runs higher, dollar stays under pressure</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-this-week-s-events-2" rel="follow">How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?</a></li></ul><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">One of the more interesting stories in the North American session was President Trump’s apparent reversal on beef tariffs as the administration looks for ways to bring down sharply higher beef prices.</p><p>Go to a grocery store in the U.S. and a pound of ground beef can now cost around $10 for an 85/15 blend. Beef prices have risen much faster than overall food inflation, and like gasoline, beef is something American consumers buy in large quantities and notice immediately when prices rise.</p><p>That brings Brazil into the picture.</p><p>Brazil is the world’s largest beef exporter. The Trump administration has used tariffs both to "generate revenue" and "protect U.S. producers" from foreign competition. They have not protected the US consumer as at the same time, the U.S. cattle herd has fallen. Drought, higher feed and energy costs, labor constraints (i.e. stopping of immigrants especially in farming) that by bad bad bad bad my office here but I have athe back back back back back back back back back back back back back back back and the expense of rebuilding herds have restricted domestic beef supplies. Demand has remained relatively strong, increasing the need for imported beef.</p><p>For Brazilian beef, once the applicable low-tariff quota is exhausted, imports have generally faced a 26.4% out-of-quota tariff.</p><p>Now Trump appears ready to remove that obstacle.</p><p>Trump announced that the U.S. would allow as much as 300,000 metric tons of additional ground beef imports over the next 90 days without triggering the 26.4% out-of-quota tariff. Trump also said the imported beef would help bring prices down by around 25%.</p><p>The numbers are hard to ignore: Trump is talking about prices potentially falling by roughly 25% while removing a tariff of 26.4% on the marginal imported beef.</p><p>Adding another piece to the puzzle, Brazil acknowledged that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spoke with Trump earlier in the day.</p><p>Connecting the dots, the U.S. needs additional beef supply. The domestic cattle herd is historically tight, rebuilding it takes years rather than months, and consumers are already dealing with elevated food and energy costs. Increasing imports offers the administration a quicker avenue for trying to bring ground-beef prices down.</p><p>That potentially puts Brazil, the world's largest beef exporter, in a strong position to supply some of that additional demand.</p><p>So, at least when it comes to beef, the tariff story may be coming full circle: tariffs were raised in part to protect domestic producers, but tight U.S. supplies and high consumer prices are now pushing the administration toward tariff relief to encourage more imports.</p><p>It also puts the inflation debate surrounding tariffs back into focus. Removing a 26.4% tariff specifically to facilitate cheaper imports and lower consumer prices illustrates the mechanism through which tariffs can raise the domestic cost of imported goods. That doesn't mean tariffs alone caused the surge in beef prices—the shrinking U.S. cattle herd and tight supply are major factors—but it does make the tariff itself part of the price equation, that all things being equal will reduce tariff income but should lead to lower imported prices to importers who are satisfying demand.&nbsp; &nbsp;</p><p>If domestic demand can not be met by domestic supply and tariffs are imposed on imported goods, imported inflation will make it's way into prices.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>Looking at other economic news today,&nbsp;<ul><li>Canada’s June retail sales came in stronger than expected, rising 0.6% versus the 0.4% forecast, while May was revised higher to +1.1%. Sales excluding autos increased 0.5%, also slightly above expectations, while sales volumes rose a solid 1.5%. The underlying details were generally positive, with core retail sales rising 1.2% for a second consecutive month, led by general merchandise and clothing-related retailers. Motor vehicle and parts sales rose 1.0%, while gasoline station sales fell sharply. Regionally, sales increased in seven provinces, led by Ontario, while Alberta posted the largest decline.&nbsp; Looking ahead, Statistics Canada’s advance estimate points to another 0.8% increase in July, suggesting consumer spending maintained momentum into the third quarter.</li><li><p>The S&amp;P Global flash PMI data for August pointed to stronger overall U.S. economic activity, despite manufacturing coming in below expectations. Manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.2 versus 53.9 expected, but remained comfortably above the 50 expansion threshold.&nbsp; The strength came from services, where PMI jumped to 56.8 versus 54.0 expected, lifting the composite PMI to 56.0 from 54.5. All three measures remain in expansion territory.&nbsp; S&amp;P Global characterized U.S. business activity as the strongest in more than four years, with the surveys pointing to annualized Q3 growth approaching 3% versus 1.5% in Q2. Employment also improved, although supply disruptions and elevated price pressures remain risks. Overall, the report suggests growth momentum has shifted from manufacturing toward the much larger services sector.</p></li></ul><p>The better economic data, the increasing budget deficits, and the insatiable demand for capital by private companies to fund AI expansion are contributing factors despite the US Treasuries actions this week. On Wednesday,Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent surprised markets this week by doubling the size of Treasury’s long-term bond buybacks, increasing the maximum purchase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. </p><p>The key points:</p><ul><li> Treasury will increase purchases of 10-year and longer-dated securities. </li><li> The larger buybacks are scheduled to begin in September. </li><li> Bessent indicated that the $4 billion amount could be increased further if needed. </li><li> The purchases primarily target older, less-liquid Treasury securities. </li><li> Buying those bonds provides support to prices and can put downward pressure on longer-term yields. </li></ul><p>The amounts themselves are relatively small compared with the overall Treasury market. However, the announcement caught markets by surprise because it signaled that Treasury may be willing to become more active at the long end of the yield curve.</p><p>Importantly, this is not Fed quantitative easing (QE). Treasury is managing its existing debt rather than creating money to purchase securities. Still, the prospect of larger Treasury purchases helped push long-term yields lower at least temporarily, and contributed to the sharp selling pressure on the U.S. dollar. Yields today, however, did move back to the upside and yields are also higher on the week. A snapshot of the market shows:</p><p></p><ul><li> 2-year: 4.240%, +5.5 bps</li><li> 5-year: 4.426%, +3.9 bps</li><li> 10-year: 4.736%, +3.8 bps</li><li> 30-year: 5.276%, +3.9 bps</li></ul><p>For the trading week:</p><ul><li>2 year yield rose 6.9 basis point</li><li>5 year yield rose 6.6 basis points</li><li>10 year yield rose 4.4 basis points</li><li>30 year yield rose 1.5 basis points&nbsp;</li></ul><p></p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">The U.S. dollar is ending the week mostly lower against the major currencies, with the Swiss franc the only currency against which the greenback gained on the day.</p><p>The biggest USD declines came against the commodity currencies. The Australian dollar rose 0.82%, while the New Zealand dollar gained 0.52%. The Canadian dollar also strengthened, with the USD falling 0.18% against the loonie.</p><p>Elsewhere, the moves were more modest. The Japanese yen gained 0.08%, while the euro and British pound were little changed, rising 0.01% and 0.03%, respectively. The USDs only advance was a 0.10% rise against the Swiss franc.</p><p>The mostly weaker finish caps a difficult week for the dollar, highlighted by the sharp midweek decline following the Treasury's decision to expand its long-dated bond buyback program.</p><p>US stocks rose to end the week but for the week, the major indices fell.&nbsp; For the trading day:&nbsp;</p><p></p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Dow Industrial Average is closing up 518.05 points or 0.98% at 53282.32</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">S&amp;P is closing up 33.17 points or 0.43% at 7674.32</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Nasdaq index is closing up 113.29 points or 0.43% at 26180.45</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Russell 2000 is up 25 443 points or 0.85% at 3017.87</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">NASDAQ 100 is up 95.69 points or 0.33% at 29308.86.</li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">For the trading week:</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Dow industrial average -0.85%</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">S&amp;P -1.43%</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Nasdaq index -2.05%</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Russell 2000 -1.64%</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Nasdaq 100 -2.45%</li></ul><p>Gold benefited from the lower dollar this week and today. The precious metal rose $84.21 or 1.86% to $4602.66.&nbsp; Silver was also higher with a gain of $0.88 or 1.30% at $68.95.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Bitcoin had its best week since March of 2023 with a gain of 25% to $78,640. The price surged by an additional 7.76% today.&nbsp;</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer"></p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p class="isSelectedEnd">Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone call Friday, with trade and tariffs among the issues discussed.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">According to the Brazilian government:</p><ul><li>Lula and Trump held a phone call on Friday, discussing both the bilateral relationship and the broader global agenda.</li><li>Lula reaffirmed the need for negotiations over tariffs between Brazil and the United States.</li><li>Lula reiterated Brazil's commitment to cooperating with the U.S. in combating organized crime.</li><li>Trump suggested that Brazilian and U.S. officials resume meetings as soon as possible.</li></ul><p class="isSelectedEnd">The timing of the call is particularly interesting given Trump's separate announcement on beef.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Earlier today, Trump announced a 90-day increase in the amount of beef that can enter the U.S. without the normal out-of-quota tariff, as the administration looks to increase supplies and bring down elevated beef and hamburger prices.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">That - coupled with these comments - brings Brazil squarely into the discussion.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Brazil is one of the world's largest beef exporters and already supplies significant quantities of beef to the United States. Brazilian beef is also particularly useful to the U.S. market because much of the imported lean beef is blended with fattier domestic beef in the production of ground beef.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">There is no confirmation that Trump's beef announcement and his conversation with Lula were directly connected, so that part remains speculation, but one can infer they are related.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">It would make economic sense to at least have that discussion. Brazil has the production and export capacity, while the U.S. is dealing with a historically tight cattle supply and high beef prices.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Trump recently exempted beef from the additional 25% tariff imposed on a range of Brazilian products, but Brazilian beef can still be subject to the longstanding 26.4% out-of-quota tariff once the applicable quota is filled. Removing that hurdle temporarily could make it significantly easier—and cheaper—for additional Brazilian beef to reach the U.S. market.</p><p>So while we don't know whether beef was specifically discussed during the Lula-Trump call, the combination of Trump's beef initiative, Lula's push for tariff negotiations, and Trump's desire to quickly restart U.S.-Brazil meetings makes Brazil a country to watch as details of the beef plan emerge.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">President Trump is looking to solve another problem - the rising cost of beef prices. He is solving the problem by getting rid of a tariff.&nbsp;&nbsp;Trump in a TruthSocial post said:&nbsp;</p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer"></p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">Beef prices have moved sharply higher mainly because the U.S. cattle herd has been shrinking for years, leaving fewer cattle available for beef production just as consumer demand has remained strong. USDA says the herd is now around its lowest level in roughly 75 years. </p><p>The latest numbers are striking. As of July 1, 2026, the U.S. had 94.2 million cattle and calves, but only 28.5 million beef cows, down another 1% from a year earlier. The 2026 calf crop is estimated at 32.5 million head, down 2%. On January 1, the total herd was just 86.2 million head—the seasonal January figure—and USDA says cattle inventories have contracted for seven consecutive years. </p><p>Why did the herd get so small?</p><p>A big part of it goes back to drought and high production costs. When pasture conditions deteriorated and feed became expensive, ranchers culled cows rather than maintaining or expanding their breeding herds. That increased beef supplies temporarily, but it also meant fewer cows producing calves in subsequent years.</p><p>There's also a powerful cattle-cycle effect. When cattle prices rise, you'd expect ranchers to immediately produce more cattle—but they can't. A rancher who decides to expand has to keep a young female instead of selling her, breed her, wait for the calf, and then wait for that calf to grow. USDA specifically notes that cattle cycles are unusually slow because of gestation and the time required to raise cattle to market weight. </p><p>Rebuilding the herd can initially make beef supplies even tighter. If ranchers retain more heifers as breeding animals, those animals don't enter the beef supply. So fewer cattle go to slaughter today in order to produce more cattle several years from now.</p><p>And consumers haven't backed away much. USDA says demand has remained strong despite higher prices. </p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">The BLS tracks the average retail price per pound of hamburger/ground beef, and the latest data show a pretty substantial increase.</p><p>For July 2026, the U.S. averages were:</p><p>Those are actual average prices paid by consumers, not just a price index. </p><p>And the increase isn't limited to hamburger. Beef roasts averaged $9.57/lb, up 14.0% from a year ago, while steaks averaged $13.06/lb, up 10.0%.</p><p>So the chain is basically:</p><p>Drought/high costs → ranchers reduce breeding herds → fewer cows → fewer calves → fewer slaughter-ready cattle → tight beef supply + strong demand → sharply higher cattle and beef prices.</p><p>There's not yet much evidence of a meaningful herd recovery. July's total cattle number was slightly higher, but beef cows were still down 1% and the calf crop was down 2%. </p><p>That's why this probably isn't a problem that disappears quickly. Even if ranchers aggressively rebuild now, the biology of cattle production means supply takes years—not months—to respond.</p><p>Back to Trumps solution</p><p>With the domestic issue still present, Trump's TruthSocial post says there is a "commitment that the beef will be sold at 25% beow current market prices".&nbsp; He does not say who this commitment is with, however.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Currently, there is a 26.4% ad valorem tariff on imported beef above a set quota.&nbsp; That is intended to protect domestic farmers. As a result, importers of beef pay 26.4% more for beef above the quota. One can assume that increased price is passed on to the consumer.</p><p>Now with the supply declining, it seems that the Trump administration will get rid of that charge for 300,000 metric tons..&nbsp; Trump says that the commitment will be that the beef will be sold at 25% below current market prices.&nbsp; Now....maybe importers have explictly said that they would not raise prices by the 26.4% tariff. We do not know as Trump does not say that explicitly. However, if tarriffed beef is marked up 26.4% yesterday, and now the same imported beef does not have that tariff, one can assume that non-tariffed beef would now not have the tariffed markup.&nbsp; Prices come down by 25%.&nbsp;</p><p>So in effect, the tariff on imported beef raised prices by around 25%. Without the tariff, beef will be sold at the real price (around 25% less).&nbsp; Problem solved.&nbsp; Get rid of the tariff that raised the prices to consumers.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>And we have been told by the likes of Treas Sec. Bessent, Commerce Sec Lutnick (and others like WH economic adviser Navarro), that&nbsp;tariffs are not passed onto the consumer.....</p><p>Time will tell if the domestic herd is rebuilt over time, but given the chain cycle, it might take more than the 3 months if the demand and supply remain out of balance for longer than that period simply because it takes time.&nbsp;</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior month -15.9</li><li>Flash estimate for August -15.5 versus -16.3 estimate</li></ul><p></p><p></p><p>Every month, the Directorate-GeneralEconomic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) of the European Commission releases the flash CCI for the EU andeuro-area aggregates, using the data available on the cut-off date. The final Consumer Survey results are thenpublished as part of the full Business and Consumer Survey release at the end of the month.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior month 53.9</li><li>Manufacturing PMI flash 53.2 versus 53.9 estimate.</li><li>Services PMI 56.8 versus 54.0 estimate. Prior month 54.6.</li><li>Composite 56.0 versus 54.5 prior. </li></ul><p>The manufacturing index was lower than expectations, but the services in the composite indices were higher. All 3 indices remain above the 50 level indicative of growth.</p><p>Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence commented on the report saying:</p><blockquote> “US business is booming, with firms reporting the fastest output growth for over four years so far in the third quarter as the expansion picked up further momentum in August. The survey data for the third quarter are currently pointing to annualized growth approaching 3.0%, up solidly from the 1.5% pace seen in the second quarter. Jobs growth has also shown a welcome revival in August, with employers gaining in confidence as concerns fade over the negative economic impacts of tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East. However, the latter in particular remains a key area of concern for businesses, especially via the impact on supply lines and energy prices. Supply delays were again reported in August to one of the greatest extents seen over the past four years, clearly constraining output in many companies. Price pressures, while fading, also remain elevated and prone to renewed upward pressures should energy prices rise again. “Growth momentum has meanwhile shifted from manufacturing to services between the second and third quarters. As reduced safety stock building and supply delays dampen factory production growth, the service sector is now playing a key role in driving a sustained US expansion, underscoring a dependency on consumer spending and financial services growth.”</blockquote><p>Overall the manufacturing was lower, the indices remain solidly in the a positive and the comments are more constructive from the flash estimate. For more, <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/552d682e429640fcb8af7da17ad060c3" rel="follow">click here</a>.</p><p> Taking a look around the markets, the 10 year yield is now up 1.8 basis points at 4.716%, the 30 year yield is up 2.3 basis points at 5.260%. The 2 year yield is also higher by close to 3 basis points to 4.214%.</p><p>In the US stock indices, the Dow industrial average is now up 0.71% and leading the way, but shares are well off pre-market levels.&nbsp;</p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">The top five gainers in the Dow in early trading are:</p><ul><li>Goldman Sachs (GS): +2.36% at $1,025.64 </li><li>Cisco (CSCO): +1.95% at $111.73 </li><li>Merck (MRK): +1.58% at $151.34 </li><li>Caterpillar (CAT): +1.31% at $826.07 </li><li>Nike (NKE): +1.19% at $40.69 </li></ul><p>Goldman Sachs leads the Dow higher, gaining more than 2%, while Cisco and Merck are also providing solid support. Caterpillar and Nike round out the top five performers, each gaining more than 1%.</p><p>Bitcoin is up 6.48% and related bitcoin related stocks are higher. Below are a list of some of the gainers.&nbsp;</p><ul><li>Robinhood Markets (HOOD): +12.84% at $107.31 </li><li>Moderna (MRNA): +11.21% at $148.26 </li><li>Coinbase Global (COIN): +9.97% at $189.53 </li><li>Strategy (MSTR): +6.90% at $120.14 </li><li>Albemarle (ALB): +5.36% at $141.38 </li><li>Alcoa (AA): +5.13% at $53.15 </li><li>SoFi Technologies (SOFI): +4.72% at $18.76 </li><li>Ross Stores (ROST): +4.22% at $238.65 </li><li>Nebius (NBIS): +3.42% at $227.63 </li></ul><p>Crypto-related equities are prominent among today's movers as Bitcoin rallies sharply.&nbsp;</p><p></p><p></p><p></p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Prior&nbsp;was +1.0% revised to 1.1%</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">The advanced July reading comes in at 0.8%</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Retail sales for June 0.6% vs 0.4% estimate</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Ex Autos for June 0.5% vs 0.4% estimate. Prior 1.2%.</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">In volume terms retail sales wer up 1.5% in June</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Retail sales were up 2.2%&nbsp; with volume sales up 0.4%</li></ul><p></p><p>Details:</p><ul><li> Core retail sales: +1.2% in June, the second consecutive monthly gain. </li><li> General merchandise retailers: +2.7%. </li><li> Clothing, accessories, shoes, jewelry, luggage and leather goods: +3.1%. </li><li> Food and beverage retailers: -0.4%, the only decline in core retail sales. </li><li> Supermarkets and other grocery retailers: -0.6%, after +0.8% in May. </li><li> Motor vehicle and parts dealers: +1.0%, the third consecutive monthly gain. </li><li> New car dealers: +1.5%. </li><li> Used car dealers: -2.4%. </li><li> Gasoline stations and fuel vendors: -4.1%; sales volumes rose +4.2%. </li></ul><p>Provincial Retail Sales</p><ul><li> Retail sales increased in 7 provinces. </li><li> Ontario: +1.6%. </li><li> Toronto: +3.9%. </li><li> Quebec: +0.5%. </li><li> Montréal: +1.0%. </li><li> Alberta: -1.3%, the largest provincial decline.</li></ul><p>The USDCAD is lower by -0.30% on the day at 1.3744 currently, and down from a high of 1.3908% this week on Tuesday/Wednesday.&nbsp; Technically, the price ran away from the 100 day MA at 1.39137 and tumbled below the 200 day MA at 1.38465.&nbsp; The price is below the swing area between 1.3766 to 1.3778 which is now a close resistance level for traders.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p></p><p></p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="/commodities/gold-stays-poised-to-post-third-straight-week-of-gains" rel="follow">Gold stays poised to post third straight week of gains</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-treasury-move-risks-creating-unintended-consequences-for-markets-and-the-economy" rel="follow">US Treasury move risks creating unintended consequences for markets and the economy</a></li><li><a href="/news/why-markets-care-more-about-the-signal-than-the-size-of-the-treasury-buyback" rel="follow">Why markets care more about the signal than the size of the Treasury buyback</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-this-week-s-events-2" rel="follow">How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?</a></li><li><a href="/education/stock-market-sector-rotation-explained-where-investors-are-moving-their-money-now" rel="follow">Stock market sector rotation explained: Where investors are moving their money now</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/ecb-s-kazaks-says-september-decision-will-be-based-on-data-adds-there-are-pros-and-cons-to-hiking-further" rel="follow">ECB's Kazāks says September decision will be based on data, adds there are pros and cons to hiking further</a></li><li><a href="/news/french-business-activity-contracts-further-in-august-as-demand-conditions-remain-subdued" rel="follow">French business activity contracts further in August as demand conditions remain subdued</a></li><li><a href="/news/germany-august-flash-manufacturing-pmi-xx-vs-52-0-expected" rel="follow">Germany August flash manufacturing PMI 54.1 vs 52.0 expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/euro-area-business-activity-sees-further-pick-up-in-august-despite-france-germany-softness" rel="follow">Euro area business activity sees further pick up in August despite France, Germany softness</a></li><li><a href="/news/uk-august-flash-services-pmi-xx-vs-51-8-expected" rel="follow">UK August flash services PMI 52.8 vs 51.8 expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/uk-july-retail-sales-vs-0-5-m-m-expected" rel="follow">UK retail sales fall in July as early summer buzz fades</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>AUD leads, USD lags on the day</li><li>Gold up 1.7% to $4,596</li><li>WTI crude oil up 0.4% to $87.20</li><li>US 10-year yields down 0.6 bps to 4.692%</li><li>European indices slightly higher; S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.4%</li><li>Bitcoin up 6.6% to $77,502</li></ul><p></p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Markets continue to debate the US Treasury decision to double long-term debt buybacks this week, with the dollar falling off again as Treasury yields stall after a bounce yesterday.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">10-year yields in the US climbed back to 4.70% while 30-year yields pushed to 5.25% before easing back a little and that is sustaining the relief as the "Bessent put" stays in place. In turn, the dollar is seen falling across the board with EUR/USD testing waters above 1.1700 and GBP/USD hitting fresh 6-month highs of 1.3660. Elsewhere, USD/JPY is down 0.3% to 158.60 while AUD/USD is up 0.8% to 0.7165 on the day.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">In terms of economic data releases, euro area PMI data saw France and Germany disappoint but the overall Eurozone data was more positive in being carried by a better showing by the rest of the region. Menawhile, UK PMI data was also more positive but it also saw inflation pressures ramp up. So, there's that.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">But in terms of market impact, the PMI data didn't do much. It's all on the continued focus on the reaction to the US Treasury move from earlier this week.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Gold is the biggest winner it would seem, climbing further to briefly clip $4,600 earlier and still up by 1.7% to $4,596 currently. Silver also briefly touched $70 and is up 2.6% to $69.90 at the moment.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">In other markets, equities are looking to find a steadier footing to close out the week&nbsp;with European indices up a little while Wall Street looks to bounce back from yesterday's setback. S&amp;P 500 futures are up 0.4% while Nasdaq futures are up 0.6%.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">And quietly, we're also seeing cryptocurrencies surge higher again in extending gains from earlier this week with Bitcoin keeping above $77,000.</p><p></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>August flash services PMI 51.7 vs 51.5 expected</li><li>Prior 51.7</li><li>August flash manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs 51.8 expected</li><li>Prior 51.9</li><li>August flash composite PMI 52.1 vs 51.7 expected</li><li>Prior 52.0</li></ul><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">After the misses from France and Germany, this is a bit of a surprise - especially the services sector estimate. The pace of expansion in the services sector was unchanged from July but comes in better than what we saw from Europe's two largest economies, with growth outside of the region picking up considerably. Who needs France and Germany eh?</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector also performed well with the index there climbing to a 51-month high as manufacturing output hits a 54-month high in August.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">All in all, a further rise in both output and new orders with a first&nbsp;expansion in new export business in roughly four-and-a-half years is helping to bolster private sector activity in Q2. That will help to ease any further stagflation concerns for the ECB, even if France and Germany in particular are likely to come under more scrutiny in the months ahead.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Looking to price pressures, input&nbsp;cost inflation eased to the weakest since February but remained sharp and was still some way above the levels seen before the Middle East conflict started. So, there's that.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">S&amp;P Global notes that:</p><blockquote style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">"A sustained solid rise in business activity in August sets the eurozone up for a robust increase in third quarter GDP of around 0.3%. The manufacturing sector is again the star performer, enjoying its strongest growth for four-and-a-half years, with the services economy providing a supporting role, notching up another month of decent growth after the malaise seen in the second quarter. </blockquote><blockquote style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">“We are again seeing reports of precautionary stock building helping support the goods-producing sector amid the ongoing supply chain disruptions emanating out of the Middle East, with supply chain delays again remaining worryingly widespread in August. However, there are also encouraging signs of rising demand for AI-related tech goods and rising equipment demand thanks to higher defence spending, notably helping Germany in particular achieve increasingly impressive production gains. </blockquote><blockquote style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">“In the service sector, rising tourism spending is helping boost economic growth, notably outside of France and Germany, where the region collectively saw the fastest services growth for over three years. </blockquote><blockquote style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">“Although high prices reportedly continue to dampen demand, price pressures have shown signs of further easing. Policymakers will be especially encouraged to see services selling price inflation back down to the joint-lowest so far this year (alongside March), with goods price inflation also continuing to moderate. However, with the flash PMI signalling solid third quarter GDP growth, a return to hiring by companies for the first time this year, and inflation remaining elevated by historical standards, a hawkish bias is likely to be maintained and further imminent rate hikes cannot be ruled out.”</blockquote><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Prior 52.1</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 51.5 expected</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Prior 51.9</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Composite PMI 52.5 vs 51.6 expected</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Prior 52.2</li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px">Comment:</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px">Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence:</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px">“The UK economy picked up a bit more pace in August, adding to signs that we should see solid economic growth of around 0.3% in the third quarter. The expansion is being helped by sunny weather and tech investment, though as expected we have seen some softening of growth in the manufacturing sector as precautionary stock building cools. This reflects easing concerns, for now, over the economic impact of the war in the Middle East. Businesses are feeling more upbeat than at any time since the war began. Job losses are also moderating. </p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px">"It’s clear, however, that the Middle East and concerns over domestic government policy continue to have a damaging effect. Most worryingly, cost pressures remain high, largely due to energy prices and supply disruption linked to the Middle East conflict alongside high staffing costs. </p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px">"The data suggest the Bank of England looks likely to keep a hawkish bias but will stay cautious, holding off any rate hikes until the growth and inflation trajectories become clearer.”</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px"></p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Prior 52.2</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Services PMI 48.5 vs 50.1 expected</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Prior 49.8</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Composite PMI 51.0 vs 51.3 expected</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Prior 51.3</li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px">Comment:</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px">Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence: </p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px">"The recovery in the manufacturing sector has regained momentum, after it showed signs of stalling in the second quarter. Output, new orders and export sales have all risen at their quickest rates since early-2022, which likely reflects some catch-up from the more subdued picture we saw a few months back at the peak of the uncertainty and spike in oil prices associated with the Middle East war, as well as the influence of increased defence spending filtering through. It still remains to be seen if this pace of growth can be sustained, not least in light of ongoing supply risks, but a notable strengthening of manufacturers' sentiment towards future output suggests that the upturn has legs. </p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px"> "Although the service sector continues to act as a drag on growth, a second successive slight uptick in new business and a renewed rise in employment in the sector suggest that things could start to get better soon on the activity front. A slower rate of services output price inflation also bodes well for demand in the coming months."</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px"></p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.