<ul><li><a href="/news/us-june-factory-orders-vs-0-2-expected" rel="follow">US June factory orders -0.3% vs +0.2% expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/jolts-job-openings-7-359m-vs-7-400m-estimate-lower-than-last-month" rel="follow">JOLTs job openings 7.359M vs 7.400M estimate. Lower than last month.</a></li><li><a href="/news/rubio-there-s-been-progress-on-reopening-strait-nothing-final-but-hoping-agreement-will-happen-very-shortly" rel="follow">Rubio: There's been progress on reopening Strait. Nothing final but hoping agreement will happen very shortly</a></li><li><a href="/news/canadian-manufacturing-pmi-hits-a-four-year-high" rel="follow">Canadian manufacturing PMI hits a four-year high</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-s-paulson-for-me-the-vote-was-not-a-close-call" rel="follow">Fed's Paulson: For me, the vote was not a close call</a></li><li><a href="/news/canada-june-trade-balance-3-86b-vs-3-0b-expected" rel="follow">Canada June trade balance +3.86B vs +3.0B expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-international-trade-balance-for-june-73-3b-vs-73-0b-estimate" rel="follow">US International Trade balance for June -$73.3B vs -$73.0B estimate</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-s-paulson-underlying-inflation-is-too-high" rel="follow">Fed's Paulson: Underlying inflation is too high</a></li><li><a href="/news/al-arabiya-expects-an-announcement-on-the-reopening-of-the-strait-of-hormuz" rel="follow">Al Arabiya: expects an announcement on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/iran-may-allow-europe-to-clear-mines-in-the-strait-of-hormuz" rel="follow">Iran may allow Europe to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-state-dept-latest-lebanon-israel-talks-began-today-and-will-continue-through-aug-6" rel="follow">US State Dept: Latest Lebanon-Israel talks began today and will continue through Aug 6</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold up $27 to $4080</li><li>US 10-year yields down 5.7 bps to 4.63%</li><li>WTI crude oil down $4.61 to $75.73</li><li>AUD leads, JPY lags</li><li>S&amp;P 500 up 2.0%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp up 2.8%</li></ul><p>It's been the perfect storm for stock markets this week and it was on full display on Tuesday with some huge gains, led by AI chip names. What's driving it:</p><ul><li>The collapse of Situational Awareness has given the all-clear on the 'bottom'</li><li>Mag7 earnings are over and they were convincing enough that there will be a positive ROI on the AI capex, with no slowdown coming</li><li>Chipmaker earnings this week are going to be impressive</li><li>TACO time on Iran with non-stop talk of a deal and the oil market believing it</li><li>FOMO with no identifiable risks until the Sept FOMC</li></ul><p>The market is showing no fear with AMD up 8% ahead of earnings today. On the macro side, the numbers were fine today and the market doesn't seem to care that the bottom of the K-shape isn't improving, as McDonald's earnings showed today. It's an AI boom and it's morphing (or has already morphed) into an AI mania. Numbers from Caterpillar today showed the wealth is spreading somewhat and the market is confident there is more to come.</p><p>In FX, the market isn't sure what to do about the US intervening in USD/JPY but the dip buying continued despite comments from Bessent.&nbsp;</p><p>In terms of oil, it was down big again today as the Hormuz headlines came from a variety of sources. It's a tough deal to make though and some skepticism is certainly warranted given the backdrop.&nbsp;</p><p></p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>The optimistic view on this is that Israel and Lebanon are working on a deal to withdraw Israeli forces from Southern Lebanon. That was one of the major sticking points in the prior US-Iran deal and could be a key sticking point in getting a deal done this week.&nbsp;</p><p>The talks are scheduled to go through Thursday so Friday is likely the earliest we could get news.</p><p>Update: No surprise here but the State Dept says&nbsp;Lebanon-Israel negotiations discussed the redeployment of Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, which is a way of saying 'redeploying them out of Lebanon'.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">Iran's Foreign Ministry said talks with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz are continuing, with both sides working toward a framework to organize and safeguard commercial shipping through one of the world's most important energy chokepoints. According to the spokesperson, the discussions are aimed at establishing safe transit routes for vessels traveling to and from the Strait while maintaining stability in the region.</p><p>Iran emphasized that the negotiations are being conducted in cooperation with Oman and are designed to balance safe navigation with the sovereignty and national security interests of both countries. Officials said the talks have progressed positively at both the technical and political levels, with work underway to develop the mechanisms needed to manage future shipping traffic.</p><p>The spokesperson added that the negotiations are still ongoing, and any final agreement or details of the proposed framework will be announced once the talks have been concluded. </p><p>Crude oil prices are currently at $76.21 down $4.13 or -5.17%.. The low prices today reached $75.16. The price also moved below its 200 day moving average at $75.93. The price break however has since seen a rotation back to the upside.</p><p></p><p></p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Highest reading since June 2022</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Fourth straight month of expansion</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Input prices rise at fastest pace in four years</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">New export orders down for a second month</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Business confidence falls to lowest since March</li></ul><p>Canada’s manufacturing sector enjoyed its strongest performance since June 2022 in the latest PMI from S&amp;P Global.&nbsp;</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">Output and new orders both accelerated, and employment rose for a fourth consecutive month.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">It seems to be a domestic story. New export orders declined for a second month running, with panellists again pointing to tariffs and the Middle East war as drags on international demand. The internal market is holding up despite the loonie near a four-year low.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">The inflation picture is the uncomfortable part. Input prices rose at the fastest pace in four years, extending an upward trend in place since late 2025. Companies flagged energy, transportation and steel as the core drivers, with tariffs and the Middle East conflict as root causes. Canada is steadily excluding imported steel. Manufacturers passed it along too — output charges rose strongly and well above trend, though below May's near four-year high. Vendor delivery times deteriorated considerably again, and there were signs firms are buying ahead to build stocks, with inventories rising at the steepest pace since the end of 2024.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">Despite the solid headline, confidence in the outlook fell to a four-month low and sits well below trend. S&amp;P's Paul Smith summed it up: the current picture is positive, but whether growth can be sustained "at its current clip is doubtful" with international demand weak and prices rising rapidly.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">For the Bank of Canada, it's a low-tier but notable release. It shows four straight months of expansion and a four-year high in input costs. That's not going to quiet the rate-hike talk.</p><p></p><p id="p-rc_c287208812b5f5af-32" style="font-family: &quot;Google Sans Text&quot;, sans-serif !important; line-height: 1.15 !important; margin-top: 0 !important">These are the comments from&nbsp;Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence:</p><blockquote id="p-rc_c287208812b5f5af-32" style="font-family: &quot;Google Sans Text&quot;, sans-serif !important; line-height: 1.15 !important; margin-top: 0 !important">"PMI data for July painted a positive picture of current growth, with output and new orders both rising at faster rates on the back of firmer domestic demand. Companies were suitably encouraged to take on additional workers, raising their staffing levels to bolster capacity and help support current workloads.</blockquote><blockquote id="p-rc_c287208812b5f5af-33" style="font-family: &quot;Google Sans Text&quot;, sans-serif !important; line-height: 1.15 !important; margin-top: 0 !important">"However, whether growth can be sustained at its current clip is doubtful. International demand remains weak, driven lower by tariffs and a highly uncertain geopolitical environment. These factors also continued to push up prices rapidly whilst adding to ongoing and widespread supply-side disruption. Subsequently, confidence amongst firms in the outlook and therefore near-term growth prospects - remains subdued, with sentiment in July its lowest for four months and well below trend."</blockquote> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>There's been progress made in talks with Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz</li></ul><p>There have been all kinds of reports pointing in this direction and obviously the market has been screaming the same thing. I shake my head at this whole fiasco and this is yet-another headline that's obviously been front-run. WTI crude is down $4.18 to $76.16.</p><p></p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior month 7.537M</li></ul><p class="markdown prose dark:prose-invert wrap-break-word w-full light markdown-new-styling"></p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">US JOLTS Report (June) – Key Takeaways</p><ul><li>Job openings were lower&nbsp;at 7.357 million vs 7.537M last month with the openings rate steady at 4.4%. The estimate was for 7.400M</li><li>Job openings increased in: <ul><li> Transportation, warehousing &amp; utilities: +97K</li><li> Federal government: +39K</li></ul></li><li>Job openings declined in: <ul><li> Wholesale trade: -74K</li><li> Nondurable goods manufacturing: -55K</li><li> Mining &amp; logging: -9K</li></ul></li></ul><p>Hiring</p><ul><li>Hires were unchanged at 5.3 million. </li><li>Hiring rate held steady at 3.4%. </li><li>Federal government hires fell by 6K. </li></ul><p>Separations</p><ul><li>Total separations were little changed at 5.4 million. </li><li>Total separation rate remained at 3.4%. </li><li> Separation levels were essentially unchanged across all industries. </li></ul><p>Quits</p><ul><li>Quits held steady at 3.2 million. </li><li>Quits rate remained at 2.0%. </li><li>Federal government quits declined by 4K. </li></ul><p>Layoffs &amp; Discharges</p><ul><li>Layoffs and discharges were unchanged at 1.8 million. </li><li>Layoff/discharge rate stayed at 1.1%. </li><li> Layoffs were little changed across all industries. </li></ul><p>Other Separations</p><ul><li>Other separations (retirements, deaths, disabilities, transfers) were little changed at 353K. </li></ul><p>Bottom line: The June JOLTS report points to a labor market that remains broadly stable. Job openings, hiring, quits, and layoffs all showed little change, suggesting labor demand and worker mobility continue to cool gradually rather than deteriorate sharply.</p><p></p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-may-factory-orders-13-vs-18-expected-20260702/" rel="follow">Prior </a>was -1.3% (revised to -1.1)</li></ul><ul><li>Durable goods revision for June +0.5% vs +0.3% preliminary. Durable goods in May was -4.0%</li><li>Durable goods ex transportation +0.7% versus +0.6% preliminary. Prior&nbsp; month +1.8%</li><li>Non defense capital goods ex-air +1.2% versus +0.9% preliminary. Last month +1.8%</li><li>Factory orders ex tansportation -0.4% versus +1.9% prior</li></ul><p>This is a solid report but it's certainly not spectacular. This is a strange investment-boom cycle because the capex numbers are huge but all the spending is being swallowed up by chip fabs.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>I'm inclined to believe this headline, if only because of the intensity of the decline in oil prices in the past two days. It's certainly moving like someone knows something because the magnitude of the move is more than the usual TACO.</p><p></p><p>The problem I have is seeing any 'deal' as sustainable given what we've seen so far from all parties involved.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Prior month -$77,10B revised to $-77.19 billion</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Trade balance -$73.3B vs $-73.0B est.</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Good trade balance $-101.41BB vs -$101.5B preliminary and prior month -$105.8B last month.</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Exports were $314.7 billion or&nbsp; $-2.9 billion or -0.9% on the month.</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Imports were $388 billion or highest $7.3 billion or -1.8% month on month&nbsp;</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $189.3 billion, or 33.8 percent, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $198.3 billion or 11.7 percent. Imports increased $9.0 billion or 0.4 percent.</li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">Other details:</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; margin: 0 0 11px; color: rgba(51, 51, 51, 1); font-family: Lato, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">Exports of goods decreased $4.0 billion to $206.9 billion in June.</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; margin: 0 0 11px; color: rgba(51, 51, 51, 1); font-family: Lato, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">&nbsp;&nbsp;Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $3.8 billion.</p><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 11px; color: rgba(51, 51, 51, 1); font-family: Lato, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; padding-left: 16px; padding-bottom: 2px; list-style-type: none; background-image: url(&quot;/sites/default/files/bullet-orange.png&quot;); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: 0 0.5em">Industrial supplies and materials decreased $3.3 billion.<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; margin-top: 2px; margin-bottom: 0"><li style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; padding-left: 16px; padding-bottom: 2px; list-style-type: none; background-image: url(&quot;/sites/default/files/bullet-orange.png&quot;); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: 0 0.5em">Crude oil decreased $5.7 billion.</li><li style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; padding-left: 16px; padding-bottom: 2px; list-style-type: none; background-image: url(&quot;/sites/default/files/bullet-orange.png&quot;); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: 0 0.5em">Fuel oil decreased $1.6 billion.</li><li style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; padding-left: 16px; padding-bottom: 2px; list-style-type: none; background-image: url(&quot;/sites/default/files/bullet-orange.png&quot;); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: 0 0.5em">Nonmonetary gold increased $3.4 billion.</li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; padding-left: 16px; padding-bottom: 2px; list-style-type: none; background-image: url(&quot;/sites/default/files/bullet-orange.png&quot;); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: 0 0.5em">Other goods decreased $0.8 billion.</li><li style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; padding-left: 16px; padding-bottom: 2px; list-style-type: none; background-image: url(&quot;/sites/default/files/bullet-orange.png&quot;); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: 0 0.5em">Capital goods decreased $0.6 billion.<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; margin-top: 2px; margin-bottom: 0"><li style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; padding-left: 16px; padding-bottom: 2px; list-style-type: none; background-image: url(&quot;/sites/default/files/bullet-orange.png&quot;); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: 0 0.5em">Computers decreased $1.1 billion.</li></ul></li></ul><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; margin: 0 0 11px; color: rgba(51, 51, 51, 1); font-family: Lato, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">Exports of services increased $1.1 billion to $107.8 billion in June.</p><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 11px; color: rgba(51, 51, 51, 1); font-family: Lato, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; padding-left: 16px; padding-bottom: 2px; list-style-type: none; background-image: url(&quot;/sites/default/files/bullet-orange.png&quot;); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: 0 0.5em">Financial services increased $0.5 billion.</li><li style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; padding-left: 16px; padding-bottom: 2px; list-style-type: none; background-image: url(&quot;/sites/default/files/bullet-orange.png&quot;); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: 0 0.5em">Travel increased $0.4 billion.</li></ul><p>Who may be on the Trump Administrations list of countries who the US has a big deficit with:&nbsp;</p><ul><li>The June figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Netherlands ($7.2), South and Central America ($5.6), Hong Kong ($3.2), Switzerland ($2.9), United Kingdom ($2.2), Singapore ($1.8), Saudi Arabia ($1.8), Brazil ($1.7), Australia ($1.3), and Belgium ($0.9). </li><li>Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with Vietnam ($21.6), Mexico ($20.3), China ($15.3), Taiwan ($14.9), European Union ($10.9), South Korea ($7.4), Canada ($7.2), Germany ($7.1), India ($4.5), Malaysia ($4.4), Japan ($3.3), Ireland ($2.7), Italy ($2.5), France ($1.5), and Israel ($1.2).</li></ul><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 11px; color: rgba(51, 51, 51, 1); font-family: Lato, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; padding-left: 16px; padding-bottom: 2px; list-style-type: none; background-image: url(&quot;/sites/default/files/bullet-orange.png&quot;); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: 0 0.5em">The balance with Switzerland shifted from a deficit of $2.3 billion in May to a surplus of $2.9 billion in June. Exports increased $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion and imports decreased $0.7 billion to $3.5 billion.</li><li style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; padding-left: 16px; padding-bottom: 2px; list-style-type: none; background-image: url(&quot;/sites/default/files/bullet-orange.png&quot;); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: 0 0.5em">The deficit with Taiwan decreased $4.5 billion to $14.9 billion in June. Exports increased $0.1 billion to $4.6 billion and imports decreased $4.4 billion to $19.5 billion.</li><li style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; padding-left: 16px; padding-bottom: 2px; list-style-type: none; background-image: url(&quot;/sites/default/files/bullet-orange.png&quot;); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: 0 0.5em">The deficit with South Korea increased $3.0 billion to $7.4 billion in June. Exports decreased $1.4 billion to $6.9 billion and imports increased $1.6 billion to $14.3 billion. </li><li style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: none; padding-left: 16px; padding-bottom: 2px; list-style-type: none; background-image: url(&quot;/sites/default/files/bullet-orange.png&quot;); background-repeat: no-repeat; background-position: 0 0.5em"></li></ul><p>Yesterday, White House economic advisor Hassett spoke to the good deficits referring to the importing of capital goods from overseas that is used for growing infrastructure in the US including data centers that will lead to economic growth in the future. So there is some tolerance for a trade deficit but having a goods trade deficit remain above the $-100 billion is somewhat shocking, and a negative toward GDP.</p><p></p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was +4.24B (revised to +3.70B)</li><li>Exports $77.49 vs $77.10B prior&nbsp; (revised to $77.19)</li><li>Imports $73.63B vs $72.86B prior (revised to $73.49B)</li><li>Exports +0.4% m/m</li><li>Imports +0.2% m/m</li></ul><p>Canada has been benefiting from the jump in commodity prices this year with strong surpluses since March. Those have helped to lift GDP, including a strong number last week. The Canadian dollar as trading at 1.4059 ahead of the data and not moved in the immediate aftermath.</p><p>The headline today is a good one but it's mitigated by the large downward revision for the prior. The good news for the economy is that imports are rising and that's a good forward indicator. That said, some of the numbers have been skewed by the weakening Canadian dollar, as many contracts are priced (and delivered) in USD.</p><p>Details:&nbsp;</p><ul><li>Exports up for 5th consecutive month</li><li>June exports up in 6 of 11 categories</li><li>Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products increased&nbsp;16.5% in June</li><li>Exports of motor vehicles and parts rose&nbsp;2.4% in June</li><li>10.0% decrease in exports of energy products due to lower oil prices</li><li>Imports from the United States rose&nbsp;3.0% to a record high driven by coimputers and peripherals</li><li>Trade surplus with the United States narrowed from $11.1&nbsp;billion in May to $10.0&nbsp;billion in June</li></ul><p></p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p class="isSelectedEnd">US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's latest comments on yen intervention in a CNBC interview might fuel speculation that the Bank of Japan could be moving closer to an imminent rate hike, particularly given the unusually strong level of coordination between Washington and Tokyo following last week's joint currency intervention.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">While Bessent stopped short of explicitly calling for rate hikes, several of his remarks appeared carefully crafted to signal that foreign exchange intervention alone will not be sufficient to stabilize the yen. Most notably, he stated that "it will require policy to follow up on the intervention" and declined to specify what the Bank of Japan should do, saying, "I won't pre-judge what the BoJ should do".</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Bessent repeatedly emphasized that Japan is making "serious efforts" to stem currency weakness, adding that the United States would not have participated in the intervention operation if it were not confident in Tokyo's broader policy framework. "US would not have joined if it was not optimistic about Japan policies," he said, a remark that markets may view as an endorsement of upcoming policy changes.</p><p>The Treasury Secretary also highlighted the economic distortions caused by a weak yen, arguing that Japan's inflation problem is largely the result of currency depreciation. Taken together, the remarks suggest Washington believes Japan is preparing additional measures to reinforce the intervention effort. Whether that ultimately means a Bank of Japan rate hike, a more hawkish policy signal, or a faster normalization path remains uncertain.</p><p>Earlier in the session, <a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/japan-us-joint-intervention-a-turning-point-for-the-yen/" rel="follow">Justin posted about MUFG arguing that the joint intervention could mark a turning point for the yen</a>. The bank pointed&nbsp;out that the US may have agreed to an arrangement with Japan whereby the BOJ will continue to normalise monetary policy as part of the decision to participate in joint intervention on the currency. They alluded to Mimura's comment in saying "I have a shared understanding with the BOJ" after the coordinated move.&nbsp;What is pretty certain is that interventions are just short-term fixes and the yen will likely need a dovish repricing in Fed interest rate expectations or faster BoJ tightening to reverse the trend.&nbsp;</p><p></p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/news/us-treasury-secretary-bessent-we-may-have-an-iran-deal-tomorrow-to-open-hormuz" rel="follow">US Treasury Secretary Bessent: We may have an Iran deal tomorrow to open Hormuz</a></li><li><a href="/forex/eur-usd-surges-above-1-15-helped-by-yen-intervention-focus-shifts-back-to-fundamentals" rel="follow">EUR/USD surges above 1.15 helped by yen intervention; focus shifts back to fundamentals</a></li><li><a href="/news/iran-and-oman-near-hormuz-shipping-deal-challenging-decades-of-free-navigation" rel="follow">Iran and Oman near Hormuz shipping deal, challenging decades of free navigation</a></li><li><a href="/forex/is-usd-jpy-starting-its-rebound-toward-new-cycle-highs-eyes-on-the-middle-east-and-us-cpi" rel="follow">Is USD/JPY starting its rebound toward new cycle highs? Eyes on the Middle East and US CPI</a></li><li><a href="/news/reminder-us-non-farm-payrolls-will-be-on-the-data-docket-this-week" rel="follow">Reminder: US non-farm payrolls will be on the data docket this week</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/crude-oil-rebounds-on-mixed-us-iran-messages-as-weekend-risk-keeps-prices-underpinned" rel="follow">Crude oil rebounds on mixed US-Iran messages as weekend risk keeps prices underpinned</a></li><li><a href="/forex/japan-us-joint-intervention-a-turning-point-for-the-yen" rel="follow">Japan-US joint intervention a turning point for the yen?</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/saudi-aramco-s-44-profit-surge-shows-who-really-won-the-us-iran-war" rel="follow">Saudi Aramco's 44% profit surge shows who really won the US-Iran war</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/nasdaq-analysis-after-palantir-earnings-the-key-support-that-could-unlock-a-move-toward-29-500" rel="follow">Nasdaq analysis after Palantir earnings: The key support that could unlock a move toward 29,500</a></li><li><a href="/news/what-are-the-main-events-for-today-17" rel="follow">What are the main events for today?</a></li><li><a href="/forex/japan-and-us-will-certainly-intervene-again-if-yen-resumes-slide-says-ex-boj-official" rel="follow">Japan and US will "certainly" intervene again if yen resumes slide, says ex-BOJ official</a></li><li><a href="/orders/fx-option-expiries-for-4-august-10am-new-york-cut" rel="follow">FX option expiries for 4 August 10am New York cut</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/oil-holds-a-little-higher-on-the-day-as-us-iran-uncertainty-continues-to-linger" rel="follow">Oil holds a little higher on the day as US-Iran uncertainty continues to linger</a></li></ul><p class="isSelectedEnd">Markets have been trading in a relatively subdued manner for most of the European session amid lingering uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the broader US-Iran standoff. Major equity indices hovered near flat levels, bond yields were little changed, and currency markets lacked a clear directional catalyst as traders awaited fresh developments from the Middle East.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">The mood shifted decisively in the latter part of the session after a series of headlines fuelled optimism that a diplomatic breakthrough could be imminent. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the United States could have a deal with Iran “tomorrow” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, adding that shipping activity through the strategic waterway was already showing signs of improvement and that energy prices should eventually stabilize. The comments reinforced earlier reports suggesting that mediators, including Qatar, were circulating draft language for a potential agreement aimed at restoring maritime traffic and paving the way for renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Risk sentiment improved rapidly following the headlines. US equity futures moved higher, the US dollar weakened and oil prices started to slide fast as traders began pricing in a lower probability of further escalation in the Gulf. The prospect of a reopening of Hormuz encouraged investors to unwind some of the geopolitical risk premium that had accumulated in recent weeks. The decline in oil prices helped support broader risk sentiment.</p><p>While the apparent progress is welcome, some caution remains warranted. Iranian officials have continued to send mixed messages regarding direct talks with Washington, and previous attempts at reaching a lasting agreement have encountered setbacks. Nevertheless, markets remain highly sensitive to any signs of diplomatic progress, with hopes for an imminent US-Iran deal proving sufficient to spark a rally in risk assets and a notable selloff in crude oil.</p><p></p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p class="isSelectedEnd">US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that a deal to reopen and stabilize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, raising hopes that recent tensions in the Gulf may ease and reduce pressure on global energy markets.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Speaking in a CNBC interview, Bessent said negotiations regarding the strategic waterway were progressing rapidly and suggested that an agreement could be finalized within days. </p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Despite the recent turmoil, Bessent noted that vessel traffic through the strait has continued. “We saw quite a few ships coming out of Hormuz even now,” he said, suggesting that shipping activity has not come to a complete halt despite the risks faced by commercial operators.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">The Treasury Secretary acknowledged that conditions in the region had been challenging, referring to the elevated geopolitical risks that have fuelled volatility across oil and financial markets.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">However, he expressed confidence that an agreement would help calm markets and reverse some of the recent risk premium embedded in energy prices. “Expect energy prices to settle down,” Bessent said, arguing that a reduction in tensions would ease concerns about supply disruptions and improve the outlook for global trade flows.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Bessent also suggested that financial markets could respond positively if negotiations are successful. “We could see a big relief trade as those prices go down,” he said, pointing to the potential for lower oil prices to support risk assets while reducing inflationary pressures that have concerned investors and central banks alike.</p><p>Markets are now closely watching for further developments from Washington, Tehran, and regional mediators, with any agreement on the Strait of Hormuz to have significant implications for crude oil prices, inflation expectations, and broader global market sentiment.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p class="isSelectedEnd">Iran and Oman are reportedly close to reaching an agreement that would establish a new framework for managing shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.&nbsp;According to reports, the proposed arrangement would place vessel movements through the strategic waterway under joint Iranian-Omani supervision without direct US&nbsp;involvement. If implemented, the deal would mark a significant departure from the Strait's traditional status as an international waterway open to unrestricted navigation.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Under the plan, ships entering the Persian Gulf would travel through the northern shipping lane closer to Iran's coastline, while vessels leaving the Gulf would use the southern lane near Oman. The proposal would effectively divide operational responsibilities between the two countries and create a new management structure for maritime traffic through the strait.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">A senior Iranian source told Reuters that Tehran would exercise full control over inbound shipping. Under the arrangement, vessels entering the Gulf would require Iranian clearance, while outbound traffic would be handled by Oman after notifying Iranian authorities. The source described the proposal as a temporary framework aimed at restoring commercial flows while maintaining security oversight in the aftermath of the conflict.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">The plan also introduces a financial component. Iranian officials reportedly said that Tehran does not intend to impose formal transit tolls but would instead collect what it describes as "service fees" (in other words... tolls) related to security and environmental protection for oil tankers passing through the waterway. Revenue generated from these payments would reportedly be shared equally between Iran and Oman.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">A US official rejected claims that ships would need Iranian approval to transit the strait and denied that any arrangement involving payments to Tehran had been accepted. The disagreement highlights the gap between the US and Iranian views regarding the future governance of the waterway.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has publicly warned against any agreement that fails to restore the Strait of Hormuz as a fully open international passage. Rubio argued that allowing a country to control access to an international waterway, impose fees on transit, and condition navigation rights on political approval would create a dangerous precedent that could be replicated elsewhere around the world.&nbsp;</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">On one hand, a framework for reopening the strait could reduce the immediate risk of supply disruptions and support the normalization of shipping activity. On the other hand, the prospect of Iran gaining a formal role in supervising traffic through the chokepoint is likely to remain a source of geopolitical tension, particularly given strong opposition from the United States and its allies, which could act as a soft floor for oil prices.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">In the near-term, the price action will continue to be driven by US-Iran developments as uncertainty around talks and potential weekend strikes is keeping oil prices supported.&nbsp;</p><p></p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">And it doesn't come any bigger than the US jobs report. To be fair, perhaps the US CPI report will be of more importance. However, don't underestimate the potential for any surprises in labour market data to upend the market pricing on the Fed outlook.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">The headline non-farm payrolls estimate for July is expected at +80k, which will be a step up from the June estimate of +57k. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected at 4.2% and that will be unchanged from June.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">So, that will set the baseline in terms of what to expect in terms of labour market developments. For now, the Fed is taking comfort from the fact that they don't have to worry about jobs running too hot or too cold. And that is allowing policymakers to keep the main focus on the inflation outlook for the most part.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">With market players needing to wait until September before the next FOMC meeting, that gives plenty of time to work through and scrutinise US economic data before that. This week's labour market data will just be the first step in that process.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">As things stand, traders are pricing in ~63% odds of a rate hike for September next. By year-end, traders are definitely seeing at least one rate hike by the Fed with ~35 bps priced in currently. And by June next year, there is ~50 bps of rate hikes priced in at the moment.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">So, the key in looking at the jobs numbers will be to see how they could or might influence that setting. But unless we get a bizarre set of numbers, it is unlikely to shift the Fed dial all too much.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">Credit Agricole is one not expecting any real surprises. The firm is expecting further stability in the labour market in July, which will just reinforce the status quo.</p><blockquote style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">"The jobs data was a bit softer in June compared to the prior few months but remains consistent with stabilisation in the labour market.&nbsp;We expect NFP to firm a bit to +75k in July, up from +57k last month&nbsp;and still a solid pace in the current environment in which the breakeven rate has dropped sharply, even if this would still be below the March through May period.&nbsp;Overall, we see this as consistent with stabilisation but not re-acceleration. Elsewhere in the report,&nbsp;we look for the unemployment rate to hold at 4.2% with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% m/m to result in an unchanged pace of 3.5% y/y."</blockquote><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify">We'll be preparing more previews through the week, so stay stuned.</p><p style="text-align: justify" class="text-align-justify"></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Spanish employment change and Italian retail sales data. The figures won't change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted.</p><p>Market focus remains on US-Iran developments, with risk sentiment maintaining the positive momentum after Trump called off planned strikes over the weekend. For now, the Iranian side continues to deny talks with the US and claims of a deal, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed. </p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, we get the US Job Openings report for June expected at 7.453M vs 7.594M prior. The data is unlikely to change anything for the Fed given the focus on inflation, so the market reactio will likely be muted. </p><p>The US labour market has been gradually strengthening since the start of the year after the 2025 tariffs uncertainty faded and the Fed rate cuts helped propping up business sentiment.&nbsp;</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/stock-market-update/nikkei-slips-on-yen-intervention-fears-as-kospi-wobbles-kosdaq-surges" rel="follow">Nikkei slips on yen intervention fears as Kospi wobbles, Kosdaq surges</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/japan-s-kiuchi-declines-to-name-fx-level-watching-impact-closely" rel="follow">Japan's Kiuchi declines to name FX level, watching impact closely</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/telegram-delisting-from-app-store-hits-crypto-traders-gram-slides" rel="follow">Telegram delisting from App Store hits crypto traders, GRAM slides</a></li><li><a href="/news/australia-household-spending-beats-up-0-8-in-june-expected-0-2-prior-1-3" rel="follow">Australia household spending beats, up 0.8% in June (expected +0.2%, prior +1.3%)</a></li><li><a href="/stock-market-update/ubs-earnings-strength-and-gradual-hormuz-recovery-support-equities" rel="follow">UBS: earnings strength and gradual Hormuz recovery support equities</a></li><li><a href="/stock-market-update/in-the-news-again-south-korea-eyes-curbs-on-leveraged-etfs-as-investor-losses-mount" rel="follow">In the news again - South Korea eyes curbs on leveraged ETFs as investor losses mount</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/pboc-sets-usd-cny-central-rate-at-6-7-vs-estimate-at-6-7595" rel="follow">PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7917 (vs. estimate at 6.7595)</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/brent-wti-recover-modestly-after-7-plunge-hormuz-attacks-ongoing" rel="follow">Brent, WTI recover modestly after 7% plunge, Hormuz attacks ongoing</a></li><li><a href="/news/more-info-on-this-south-korea-core-inflation-hits-2-1-2-year-high-despite-headline-cooling" rel="follow">More info on this - South Korea core inflation hits 2-1/2 year high despite headline cooling</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/ukmto-reports-vessel-hit-near-hormuz-as-iran-strike-reports-emerge" rel="follow">UKMTO reports vessel hit near Hormuz as Iran strike reports emerge</a></li><li><a href="/news/south-korea-core-cpi-july-shows-biggest-annual-rise-since-december-2023" rel="follow">South Korea core CPI (July) shows biggest annual rise since December 2023</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/amazon-chair-jeff-bezos-has-sold-4-07-billion-worth-of-his-amzn-shares" rel="follow">Amazon Chair Jeff Bezos has sold $4.07 billion worth of his AMZN shares</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/palantir-revenue-jumps-93-as-karp-hails-otherworldly-quarter-raises-guidance" rel="follow">Palantir revenue jumps 93% as Karp hails "otherworldly" quarter, raises guidance</a></li><li><a href="/stock-market-update/icymi-hsbc-stays-bullish-on-us-stocks-calls-chip-selloff-rotation-not-capitulation" rel="follow">ICYMI - HSBC stays bullish on US stocks, calls chip selloff rotation not capitulation</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/icymi-federal-reserve-chair-warsh-weighs-cutting-fed-meetings-biggest-policy-shake-up-in-decades" rel="follow">ICYMI: Federal Reserve Chair Warsh weighs cutting Fed meetings, biggest policy shake-up in decades</a></li><li><a href="/forex/takaichi-backed-tax-cut-plan-raises-fresh-fiscal-questions-for-yen" rel="follow">Takaichi-backed tax cut plan raises fresh fiscal questions for yen</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/hsbc-dollar-set-to-grind-higher-on-rate-differentials-resilient-economy" rel="follow">HSBC: dollar set to grind higher on rate differentials, resilient economy</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/iran-warns-of-serious-risk-casualties-for-us-forces-over-hormuz-blockade" rel="follow">Iran warns of serious risk, casualties for US forces over Hormuz blockade</a></li><li><a href="/news/investinglive-americas-fx-news-wrap-3-aug-risk-on-returns-to-wall-street" rel="follow">investingLive Americas FX news wrap 3 Aug: Risk-On Returns to Wall Street</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/oil-recap-crude-slides-as-trump-holds-off-iran-strikes-opec-hike-stuck-at-chokepoints" rel="follow">Oil recap: crude slides as Trump holds off Iran strikes, OPEC+ hike stuck at chokepoints</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/deutsche-bank-sees-gold-s-correction-as-largely-done-holds-us-4600-q4-target" rel="follow">Deutsche Bank sees gold's correction as largely done, holds US$4600 Q4 target</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/a-great-start-for-us-stocks-to-the-month-of-august-gains-in-he" rel="follow">A great start for US stocks to the month of August. </a></li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr" class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3 print:block print:space-y-1"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">A senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader warned American vessels and forces face serious risk if the Hormuz blockade continues, and ruled out any second shipping corridor through the Strait.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Unconfirmed Iranian media reports pointed to attacks on US bases in Kuwait, while Iran's foreign minister was reported to have arrived in Iraq.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">UKMTO reported a cargo vessel hit by an unknown projectile near Al Khasab, Oman, later identified as a missile that disabled the vessel's engine room; an outlet close to Iran's security council also reported an F-35B crash, unconfirmed elsewhere.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Oil prices firmed modestly on the fresh escalation.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Japan's ruling party backed cutting the food consumption tax from 8% to 1% for two years, adding to fiscal pressure on the yen; USD/JPY rose to highs around 157.70.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Australian household spending beat forecasts in June, reinforcing expectations the RBA holds rates next week; AUD/USD outperformed.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Asia-Pacific stocks opened higher on Wall Street's lead, with Kospi up as much as 2% and Nikkei up 0.3%, before Nikkei and Kospi softened; Kosdaq surged over 5% with a third consecutive buy-side trading curb, driven by heavy institutional buying.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Telegram briefly disappeared from Apple's App Store worldwide before being reinstated.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Amazon Chair Jeff Bezos sold $4.07 billion of AMZN shares; Palantir posted 93% revenue growth and raised full-year guidance on surging AI demand.</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">Middle East tensions resurfaced on Monday, complicating the fragile optimism that had briefly lifted markets after Trump's weekend decision to hold off on fresh strikes against Iran. A senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader warned that American vessels and forces would face serious risk, including casualties, if the current blockade situation continues, and explicitly ruled out any second shipping corridor opening through the Strait of Hormuz. That rhetoric was accompanied by unconfirmed Iranian media reports of attacks on US bases in Kuwait, while Fox News reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi had arrived in Iraq, a development that could point toward regional diplomatic manoeuvring even as the security picture darkened.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">The most concrete escalation came via the UK Maritime Trade Operations body, which reported a cargo vessel had been hit by an unknown projectile roughly 20 nautical miles northeast of Al Khasab, Oman. That projectile was later identified as a missile, which disabled the vessel's engine room. Separately, Nour News, an outlet with ties to Iran's Supreme National Security Council, reported the crash of an F-35B fighter jet, though this account saw no corroboration from other sources at the time of writing. Oil prices ticked modestly firmer in response to the fresh escalation, reversing a portion of Monday's steep selloff as the market once again priced in supply risk around the world's most critical chokepoint.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">Currency markets carried their own theme, with the yen extending its slide as Japan's fiscal position came back into focus. Nikkei media reported that the ruling party has backed cutting the food consumption tax from 8% to 1% for a two year period starting next April, alongside roughly ¥600 billion a year in cash transfers to households, with funding for the package still unspecified. That combination of tax cuts and spending commitments added to existing concerns over Japan's fiscal trajectory, helping push USD/JPY to session highs around 157.70. In contrast, the Australian dollar outperformed after data showed household spending climbed more than expected in June, reinforcing the picture of resilient consumer demand a week ahead of the Reserve Bank's policy meeting, where rates are widely expected to be left unchanged.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">Asia-Pacific equities began the session on a strong footing, drawing support from Wall Street, where the Dow notched a record close as lower oil prices and yields followed Trump's strike cancellation and talk of renewed US-Iran negotiations. South Korea's Kospi opened around 1.2% higher, with SK Hynix up more than 3% and Samsung Electronics gaining over 2%, before extending gains to as much as 2% intraday. Japan's Nikkei 225 opened a more modest 0.3% higher. Both indices lost momentum as the session progressed, with the Nikkei and Kospi softening from their early highs. The Kosdaq told a different story entirely, surging more than 5% as the Korea Exchange activated a buy-side-only trading curb at 10:47:51 KST, pausing programmatic trading. Institutions were heavy net buyers to the tune of KRW 354 billion, and this marked the third consecutive session the curb has been triggered, following activations at the end of last month and again the previous day.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">Elsewhere, Telegram briefly vanished from Apple's App Store worldwide without explanation, leaving existing installations functional but blocking new downloads and updates. The app was later reinstated, bringing a swift end to an episode that had initially raised concerns among crypto traders and community managers who rely heavily on the platform.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">In company news, Amazon Chair Jeff Bezos sold $4.07 billion worth of his shares in the company, a disposal that will likely draw scrutiny given its scale. Palantir Technologies, meanwhile, posted a standout quarter, with revenue up 93% year-over-year to around $1.9 billion and US commercial revenue surging 149%. The company raised its full-year guidance across revenue, operating income and free cash flow, citing surging demand tied to what it describes as the sovereign AI theme.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">The scale of the beat, four times the consensus forecast and following an even larger jump in May, is likely to reinforce the view that consumer demand remains resilient despite three RBA rate hikes already delivered this year. With inflation still running high and the labour market holding up, this data point strengthens the case for the RBA to keep tightening rather than pause, since demand-side pressure shows little sign of cooling under current borrowing costs. The composition of the spending gain, led by discretionary categories such as hospitality, recreation and household goods alongside EV purchases, suggests this is not simply a story of necessity spending rising with prices, but genuine appetite for discretionary outlays. Markets are likely to read this as supportive of further AUD strength and continued upward pressure on rate expectations.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">---</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr"> Australian household spending topped forecasts for a second straight month in June, underscoring resilient demand even as the RBA has already hiked three times this year against persistently high inflation.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr" class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3 print:block print:space-y-1"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Australia's monthly household spending indicator rose 0.8% in June to A$81.3 billion, well above the 0.2% increase analysts had expected.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The June rise followed an even stronger 1.2% jump in May.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Spending for the whole June quarter rose 0.7% in real terms to A$227.8 billion, following a 0.8% increase in the prior quarter.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The gain was driven by discretionary categories including alcoholic beverages and tobacco, recreation and culture, furnishing and household equipment, and hotels, cafes and restaurants.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Consumers were noted splashing out on electric vehicles amid high petrol prices.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The data lands against a backdrop of three RBA rate hikes at the first three meetings this year, with inflation still elevated and the labour market holding up reasonably well.</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr"> Australian household spending rose more strongly than expected for a second consecutive month in June, adding to evidence that consumer demand is holding up despite the Reserve Bank of Australia having already delivered three interest rate hikes so far this year.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the monthly household spending indicator rose 0.8% in June to A$81.3 billion. That comfortably beat analyst expectations, with economists having generally looked for a much smaller increase of around 0.2%. The June result followed an even sharper 1.2% jump in May, meaning spending has now surprised to the upside for two straight months.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">On a quarterly basis, spending across the June quarter rose 0.7% in real terms to A$227.8 billion, building on a 0.8% increase in the previous quarter. The ABS attributed the gain to strength in discretionary spending categories, including alcoholic beverages and tobacco, recreation and culture, furnishing and household equipment, and hotels, cafes and restaurants. Consumers were also reported to be spending heavily on electric vehicles, a trend linked in part to persistently high petrol prices pushing households toward alternatives.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">The resilience in spending comes against a backdrop of a hawkish policy environment. The RBA has raised interest rates at each of its first three meetings this year, moves aimed at bringing down inflation that has remained stubbornly elevated. Despite those hikes, the labour market has continued to hold up reasonably well, giving the central bank some room to keep tightening without an immediate deterioration in employment conditions.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">Thursday's spending figures are likely to reinforce the case that current borrowing costs have yet to meaningfully dent household appetite for discretionary purchases. With spending accelerating rather than slowing in the face of higher rates, and inflation still running above target, the data adds to the argument that the RBA may need to maintain, or even extend, its current tightening path in order to bring price pressures fully under control. The composition of the spending gain, concentrated in categories such as hospitality, recreation and household goods rather than necessities alone, suggests underlying consumer confidence remains intact even as the cost of servicing debt continues to rise across the economy.&nbsp;</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/south-korea-core-cpi-july-shows-biggest-annual-rise-since-december-2023/" rel="follow">undershoot on both headline and monthly CPI</a> is likely to be read as giving the Bank of Korea some breathing room, even as the vice finance minister's comments on persistent upward pressures suggest policymakers are not treating the softer print as a green light to ease. The core CPI acceleration to its fastest pace in two and a half years is the more important signal for rate expectations, since it points to underlying price pressure building even as headline inflation cools on lower fuel costs. With the central bank having only just resumed hiking last month and flagged more to come, this data is unlikely to shift that trajectory, particularly given the ministry's own warning of a one-off inflation boost in August from mobile fee base effects.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">---</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr"> South Korea's headline inflation cooled more than expected in July, but a jump in core prices and official warnings over lingering risks kept policymakers cautious.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr" class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3 print:block print:space-y-1"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">South Korea's CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year in July, below the Reuters poll forecast of 3.0% and down from 3.2% in June, marking a three-month low.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.2%, its first decline in eight months, against expectations for a 0.1% rise, driven by a 5.5% drop in petroleum product prices.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.6% year-on-year, up from 2.5% in June and the fastest pace since December 2023.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Vice Finance Minister Lee Hyoung-il said upward price pressures persist, citing uncertainty tied to the Middle East conflict.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The finance ministry estimated nationwide fuel price caps reduced July inflation by 0.3 percentage points, and flagged a one-off 0.8 percentage point boost to August inflation from base effects tied to last year's temporary mobile fee discounts.</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The <a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/bok-delivers-unanimous-25bp-hike-to-2-75-flags-persistent-inflation/" rel="follow">Bank of Korea</a> raised interest rates last month for the first time in three and a half years and signalled further hikes are likely, citing inflation risks tied to brisk economic growth.</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr"> South Korea's consumer inflation eased to a three-month low in July, coming in softer than markets had expected as falling oil prices weighed on the headline figure, even as policymakers cautioned that price pressures have not fully abated.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">The consumer price index rose 2.8% in July from a year earlier, down from 3.2% in June, according to data released by the Ministry of Data and Statistics on Tuesday. That outcome fell short of a median forecast of 3.0% from a Reuters poll of economists. On a monthly basis, the index declined 0.2%, its first fall in eight months, as petroleum product prices dropped 5.5%. Economists had expected a 0.1% monthly increase, matching the previous month's pace.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">Despite the softer headline number, officials signalled they remain watchful. Vice Finance Minister Lee Hyoung-il said upward price pressures, including uncertainty stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, continue to persist. The finance ministry also noted that nationwide fuel price caps had reduced July inflation by an estimated 0.3 percentage points, a measure that has helped keep headline price growth in check. Looking ahead, the ministry flagged that August inflation is likely to see a one-off boost of around 0.8 percentage points due to base effects from temporary mobile fee discounts introduced a year earlier, suggesting the current soft patch in headline inflation may not persist into the following month.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">The fall in oil prices that helped drive July's softer reading came after crude tumbled to three-week lows on Monday, following President Trump's decision to hold off on a fresh attack on Iran in the hope of securing a rapid deal that could boost supply from the Gulf.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr">Underlying price pressures told a somewhat different story to the headline figure. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.6% in July from a year earlier, accelerating from 2.5% in June and marking its biggest annual increase since December 2023. That acceleration is likely to keep the Bank of Korea attentive to inflation risks even as headline price growth cools. The central bank raised interest rates last month for the first time in three and a half years and signalled further increases could follow, as brisk growth in Asia's fourth-largest economy has continued to stoke concerns over inflationary pressure building beneath the surface.&nbsp;</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>South Korea July CPI came in at +2.8% y/y, below the Reuters poll estimate of +3.0% and down from +3.2% in June, marking a three-month low. </p><p>On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.2%, versus expectations for +0.1%, its first monthly decline since November 2025, driven by a 5.5% drop in petroleum prices.</p><p> Core CPI rose 2.6% y/y, up from +2.5% in June, its biggest annual rise since December 2023.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/stocks/a-great-start-for-us-stocks-to-the-month-of-august-gains-in-he" rel="follow">A great start for US stocks to the month of August. Gains in he</a></li><li><a href="/technical-analysis/a-technical-look-the-technicals-driving-the-large-cap-tech-stocks" rel="follow">A technical look the technicals driving the large cap tech stocks</a></li><li><a href="/news/trump-talks-are-going-on-now-this-is-the-last-chance-again" rel="follow">Trump: Talks are going on now. This is the last chance (again).</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/european-indices-san-uk-ftse-100-closed-solidly-higher-on-the-day" rel="follow">European indices (san UK FTSE 100) closed solidly higher on the day.</a></li><li><a href="/news/atlanta-fed-gdpnow-growth-estimate-rises-to-6-2-from-5-previously" rel="follow">Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate rises to 6.2% from 5% previously</a></li><li><a href="/news/trump-iran-is-unbelievably-duplicitous" rel="follow">Trump: Iran is unbelievably duplicitous</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-construction-spending-for-june-0-1-vs-0-2-estimate" rel="follow">US Construction Spending for June -0.1% vs 0.2% estimate</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-ism-manufacturing-pmi-for-july-55-6-versus-54-0-estimate" rel="follow">US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July 55.6 versus 54.0 estimate</a></li><li><a href="/news/s-p-global-manufacturing-pmi-final-for-july-53-9-vs-53-8-preliminary" rel="follow">S&amp;P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for July 53.9 vs 53.8 preliminary</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-has-made-a-concession-to-iran-on-hormuz-but-iran-won-t-open-until-the-war-is-over" rel="follow">US has made a concession to Iran on Hormuz but Iran won't open until the war is over</a></li><li><a href="/news/wh-nec-kevin-hassett-us-inflation-numbers-have-been-fantastic" rel="follow">WH NEC Kevin Hassett: US inflation numbers have been fantastic</a></li><li><a href="/news/investinglive-european-markets-wrap-oil-holds-lower-despite-iran-refuting-trump-claims" rel="follow">investingLive European markets wrap: Oil holds lower despite Iran refuting Trump claims</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/fed-s-williams-remains-optimistic-inflation-pressures-will-gradually-ease-fed-policy-well-positioned" rel="follow">Fed's Williams remains optimistic inflation pressures will gradually ease; Fed policy "well positioned"</a></li></ul><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">U.S. stocks kicked off August with a strong rally as investors embraced a renewed risk-on tone. The S&amp;P 500 gained 1.50%, while the Nasdaq climbed 2.13%, helped by falling Treasury yields, sharply lower oil prices, and another wave of buying in large-cap technology. Investors also reacted positively to the latest ISM Manufacturing report, which showed the factory sector continuing to expand. The headline index rose to 55.6, well above the 54.0 consensus estimate and up from 53.3 in June, marking the strongest reading in more than four years. New Orders remained firmly in expansion at 56.7, while the Employment Index jumped to 52.8 from 49.7, returning to expansion for the first time in 33 months and reaching its highest level since August 2022. The Prices Paid index eased to 71.1 from 73.0, but remained elevated, underscoring that inflation pressures within the manufacturing sector remain persistent.</p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">New York Fed President John Williams reinforced the Federal Reserve's current policy stance, saying the July decision left interest rates "well positioned" to return inflation to the Fed's 2% target. He stressed that the Fed remains fully committed to price stability and will act if inflation fails to move sustainably back toward target, while expressing confidence that inflation pressures should continue to ease over time. Williams acknowledged uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict but expects any inflationary impact to moderate. On market expectations, he emphasized that while the Fed closely watches market pricing because it provides valuable information, policymakers are not obligated to validate or follow those expectations. Overall, the comments were consistent with Williams' typically centrist approach, offering no new policy signal and leaving future decisions dependent on incoming economic data and evolving geopolitical developments.</p><p>Technology stocks once again led the advance as investors rotated back into the AI leaders. Meta surged 6.02%, Microsoft climbed 4.93%, Alphabet rose 4.88%, Amazon gained 4.58%, Tesla advanced 3.49%, and Nvidia added 2.93%. Apple was the lone Mag 7 laggard, falling 1.78% as investors continued to digest last week's earnings report and outlook.</p><p>The bond market added another tailwind for equities as Treasury yields moved lower across the curve, easing valuation pressures on growth stocks. The 2-year yield fell 5.1 basis points to 4.239%, the 5-year declined 7.2 basis points to 4.387%, the 10-year dropped 6.7 basis points to 4.667%, and the 30-year eased 4.7 basis points to 5.227%. The decline in yields gave investors added confidence to rotate back into higher-growth sectors, particularly technology.</p><p>Energy markets also supported the bullish tone. WTI crude oil tumbled 5.56% to $79.96 as concerns over an immediate disruption to Middle East oil supplies eased. The sharp decline in crude helped temper inflation concerns and reinforced the move lower in Treasury yields.</p><p>In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar finished mostly higher. The greenback gained 0.61% against the Australian dollar, 0.54% versus the New Zealand dollar, 0.35% against the British pound, 0.30% versus the Swiss franc, 0.26% against the euro, and 0.10% against the Canadian dollar. The lone exception was the Japanese yen, where the dollar fell 0.28%, making the yen the strongest-performing major currency on the day.</p><p>Overall, investors looked past lingering geopolitical uncertainty and instead focused on a combination of better-than-expected ISM manufacturing data, improving manufacturing employment, easing Treasury yields, sharply lower oil prices, and renewed leadership from AI and large-cap technology. With the manufacturing sector showing its strongest hiring conditions in nearly three years and earnings season continuing, the market's attention now shifts toward upcoming corporate results and Friday's U.S. employment report for the next major macro catalyst. Stop it</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p></p><p>As noted in the screenshot below, lower tier importance data only today.&nbsp;</p><p></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>Pres. Trump is speaking again and says:</p><ul><li>Conflict is working out very well.&nbsp;</li><li>Iran talks are going on now at their request.</li><li>Iran wanted to talk about the Strait</li><li>This is the last chance .</li><li>Gulf nations wanted one last chance</li><li>Talking about have the Strait open tomorrow.&nbsp;</li><li>Denuclearization will take a little while</li><li>Iran can not have nuclear.&nbsp;</li></ul><p>I think most&nbsp; people want peace, but this story has played out so many times.&nbsp; And there was reletively stability pre-February 28.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Trump adds...</p><ul><li>Oil companies are making too much money.&nbsp; </li><li>I don't like it.&nbsp;</li><li>Oil firms better cut the retail price.&nbsp;</li></ul><p>Crude oil prices are continuing to trade around $-5.04&nbsp;or -5.86% at $79.80. The average price of a gallon of gas is $4.09.</p><p>Major US stock hold onto solid gains with the Dow up 1.23%, the S&amp;P up 1.54% and the NASDAQ up 2.23%. The NASDAQ 100 is up 1.85%.</p><p>Some of the big winners today include:&nbsp;</p><li>Crown Holdings (CRWV):$84.10 (+17.17%) </li><li>Nebius Group (NBIS):$220.33 (+15.71%) </li><li>First Solar (FSLR):$237.78 (+12.67%) </li><li>Coherent (COHR):$290.85 (+10.64%) </li><li>Lumentum Holdings (LITE):$781.50 (+9.46%) </li><li>SoFi Technologies (SOFI):$17.80 (+9.17%) </li><li>Vertiv Holdings (VRT):$263.12 (+8.92%) </li><li>Oracle (ORCL):$140.32 (+8.05%) </li><li>Boeing (BA):$231.36 (+7.04%) </li><li>Sandisk (SNDK):$1,299.00 (+6.93%) </li><li>Bloom Energy (BE):$219.99 (+6.89%) </li><li>Defiance Drone &amp; Modern Warfare ETF (JEDI):$25.45 (+6.44%) </li><li>Corning (GLW):$147.12 (+6.42%) </li><li>Robinhood Markets (HOOD):$92.07 (+6.37%) </li><li>Meta Platforms (META):$590.98 (+6.16%) </li><li>Roblox (RBLX):$37.78 (+6.14%) </li><li>Astera Labs (ALAB):$326.77 (+4.99%) </li><li>Credo Technology (CRDO):$217.00 (+4.84%) </li><li>NVIDIA (NVDA):$208.02 (+3.62%)</li><p></p><p></p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>The&nbsp;Atlanta Fed growth estimate for Q3 rose to 6.2% from 5.0% in its initial reading. Recall from last week, the Q2 GDP came in at 1.5%. The Atlanta Fed model for Q2 forecasted 1.5%. Kudos to them.</p><p></p><p>For the current model estimate, they said:&nbsp;</p><blockquote style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0 0 2.5rem; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); font-family: &quot;IBM Plex Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(254, 254, 254, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px">The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is&nbsp;6.2 percent&nbsp;on August 3,&nbsp;up from 5.0 percent&nbsp;on July 30. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.3 percent and 15.9 percent, respectively, to 4.6 percent and 17.9 percent.</blockquote><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0 0 2.5rem; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); font-family: &quot;IBM Plex Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(254, 254, 254, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px">The next GDPNow update is&nbsp;Tuesday, August 4. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Trump is on TruthSocial (I assume it is not the $100,000 one) where he is saying that Iran leadership is unbelievably duplicitous.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>The full post reads:</p><p>Of course Trump can have his "duplicitous" moments as well.&nbsp; Just saying.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.