<ul><li><a href="/stocks/the-heads-of-us-frontier-ai-labs-are-terrified-of-china" rel="follow">The heads of US frontier AI labs are terrified of China</a></li><li><a href="/news/anthropic-openai-and-google-held-talks-on-ai-safety-body-report-says" rel="follow">Anthropic, OpenAI and Google held talks on AI safety body, report says</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/ripple-s-rlusd-supply-hits-fresh-all-time-high-as-xrp-price-lags-behind" rel="follow">Ripple's RLUSD supply hits fresh all-time high as XRP price lags behind</a></li><li><a href="/forex/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-for-today-at-6-7-vs-estimate-at-6-7083" rel="follow">PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7698 (vs. estimate at 6.7083)</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/cicc-warns-100-oil-could-bring-demand-destruction-into-view" rel="follow">CICC warns $100 oil could bring demand destruction into view</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/musk-highly-confident-spacex-will-launch-nvidia-ai-computers-into-orbit-in-2027" rel="follow">Musk highly confident SpaceX will launch Nvidia AI computers into orbit in 2027</a></li><li><a href="/news/carney-explores-canada-as-eu-associate-member-wsj-reports" rel="follow">Carney explores Canada as EU associate member, WSJ reports</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/trump-wants-future-iran-talks-focused-on-nuclear-file-not-hormuz-sources-say" rel="follow">Trump wants future Iran talks focused on nuclear file, not Hormuz, sources say</a></li><li><a href="/news/nz-services-sector-expands-for-third-month-as-psi-rises-to-51-2" rel="follow">NZ services sector expands for third month as PSI rises to 51.2</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/weekend-tanker-hit-by-projectile-in-hormuz-as-fresh-attacks-reported-at-sea" rel="follow">Weekend: Tanker hit by projectile in Hormuz as fresh attacks reported at sea</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/oil-gap-higher-saudi-pipeline-shut-after-drone-attack-as-hormuz-meeting-is-postponed" rel="follow">Oil gap higher: Saudi pipeline shut after drone attack as Hormuz meeting is postponed</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/globex-is-open-and-oil-has-jumped-higher-while-stocks-have-slumped" rel="follow">Globex is open and oil has jumped higher while stocks have slumped.</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/tesla-s-flying-roadster-demo-to-land-after-years-of-missed-reveal-dates" rel="follow">Tesla's flying Roadster demo to land after years of missed reveal dates</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/crypto-democrats-meet-ahead-of-tuesday-s-crucial-clarity-act-vote-btc-eth-implications" rel="follow">Democrats meet ahead of Tuesday's crucial Clarity Act vote; BTC, ETH implications.</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/ecb-chief-lagarde-says-euro-area-inflation-shock-will-last-longer-than-expected" rel="follow">ECB chief Lagarde says euro-area inflation shock will last longer than expected</a></li><li><a href="/stock-market-update/nasdaq-futures-set-to-open-lower-as-altman-rules-out-2026-openai-ipo" rel="follow">Nasdaq futures set to open lower as Altman rules out 2026 OpenAI IPO</a></li><li><a href="/forex/monday-open-indicative-forex-prices-14-september-2026" rel="follow">Monday open indicative forex prices, 14 September 2026</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/iran-says-hormuz-meeting-with-gulf-states-postponed-at-request-of-regional-countries" rel="follow">Iran says Hormuz meeting with Gulf states postponed at request of regional countries</a></li><li><a href="/news/investinglive-americas-fx-news-wrap-11-sept-us-cpi-keeps-fed-raises-odds-for-fed-rate-hike" rel="follow">investingLive Americas FX news wrap 11 Sept: US CPI raises odds for Fed rate hike</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>Oil opened the week with a gap higher that held through the session, as the Middle East conflict continued to threaten global energy supply.</li><li>Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline remains shut after last week's attack, with initial reports citing sources inside Saudi Arabia describing catastrophic damage to pumping infrastructure at a minimum of eight locations, and repairs expected to take considerably longer than a month due to a shortage of spare parts.</li><li>Three industry sources told Reuters Saudi Arabia is on track to exhaust its crude export stocks within five to seven days, potentially removing around 4 million barrels per day, roughly 4% of global supply, from the market.</li><li>Oman postponed the Persian Gulf foreign ministers meeting at which Iran had been expected to formally unveil an agreement on a temporary Hormuz shipping lane.</li><li>Gold traded around $4,340, and the US dollar was a little stronger on the session.</li><li>US equity index futures gapped lower and traded heavily, with analysts pointing to reports that Anthropic and OpenAI have been involved in discussions around pacing AI development as a factor weighing on sentiment.</li><li>Japan's Nikkei fell around 1% and South Korea's KOSPI fell around 2%, while China's main indexes traded mixed, with the Shanghai Composite up 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.25%, and the ChiNext down 0.47%.</li><li>Goldman Sachs dropped its call for no change at this week's FOMC meeting on September 15 and 16, and now expects a 25 basis point hike, which it characterises as a likely "one and done" move that should not weigh heavily on equities.</li></ul><p dir="ltr"> Oil opened the new trading week with a gap higher that held through the session, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continued to weigh on the outlook for global energy supply. The move followed confirmation that Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline remains shut following an attack last week, with Oman separately postponing a planned meeting of Persian Gulf foreign ministers at which Iran had been expected to formally unveil an agreement on a temporary Hormuz shipping lane.</p><p dir="ltr">Initial reports citing sources inside Saudi Arabia described the pipeline's pumping infrastructure as catastrophically damaged, with at least eight locations along the pipe hit, and said repairs are expected to take considerably longer than a month given a shortage of spare parts. Three industry sources told Reuters that the outage leaves Saudi Arabia on track to exhaust its crude oil stocks available for export within five to seven days, a development that could remove around 4 million barrels per day, roughly 4% of global supply, from the market.</p><p dir="ltr">Further,&nbsp;US Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned not to bank on a breakthrough over the Strait of Hormuz, even as Iran prepares to propose a passage deal to other Gulf states. Speaking Sunday, he said it's not a safe assumption that Iran and its neighbours will reach a consensual agreement any time soon. In the meantime, he said markets should keep relying on existing workarounds, which he estimated are still moving around 10 million barrels a day of crude and refined products.</p><p dir="ltr">Gold traded around $4,340 on the session, while the US dollar was a little stronger. US equity index futures gapped lower and traded heavily throughout the session, with analysts pointing in part to recent reporting that Anthropic and OpenAI have been involved in discussions around pacing the development of artificial intelligence, following public comments from executives at both companies over the weekend, as a contributing factor to the softer tone in risk assets.</p><p dir="ltr">Asian equity markets were mixed to weaker. Japan's Nikkei fell around 1% and South Korea's KOSPI declined around 2%, while mainland Chinese indexes traded more evenly, with the Shanghai Composite gaining 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component slipping 0.25%, and the ChiNext down 0.47%.</p><p dir="ltr">Separately, Goldman Sachs abandoned its forecast for no change in the federal funds rate at this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, scheduled for September 15 and 16, and now expects a 25 basis point rate hike. The bank characterised the move as likely to be a "one and done" adjustment, adding that it does not expect the decision to weigh heavily on equity markets.</p><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">The report adds substance behind the wave of public safety commentary from AI industry leaders that surfaced over the weekend, suggesting the coordination is more advanced than a single essay or public statement implied. For markets, a credible move toward shared testing and auditing standards could be read two ways. On one hand, standardised pre-release safety reviews could reduce regulatory tail risk for the largest labs by getting ahead of government intervention, a dynamic that has previously supported valuations across the sector. On the other, several commentators have flagged that compliance costs tied to a lab-designed standards body could entrench the largest incumbents, given the OECD has already identified high fixed costs and concentrated infrastructure as barriers to entry in AI, a dynamic worth watching for how it affects competitive positioning among smaller players and infrastructure providers alike.</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr">Earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/nasdaq-futures-set-to-open-lower-as-altman-rules-out-2026-openai-ipo/" rel="follow">Nasdaq futures set to open lower as Altman rules out 2026 OpenAI IPO</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr"> The industry's loudest weekend safety statements turn out to have been building on months of quiet, coordinated talks between the three biggest labs.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>The Information (<a href="https://www.theinformation.com/articles/inside-ai-industrys-behind-scenes-push-police" rel="follow">gated</a>) reported that Anthropic, OpenAI and Google have held working group meetings since July discussing the creation of an industry led AI safety standards body.</li><li>The discussions reportedly predate Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei's public call on Saturday for <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c14dpgm0rg4o" rel="follow">AI companies to slow the pace</a> of capability development and coordinate on safety.</li><li>Google DeepMind chief executive Demis Hassabis had separately proposed a FINRA style, US based Frontier AI Standards Body on July 14.</li><li>OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman reportedly told employees at an internal meeting that he supports creating a testing and auditing body, but believes major labs will need to build one themselves absent US government backing.</li><li>The three companies hold differing views on the appropriate level of government involvement, with Anthropic leaning more toward government partnership and OpenAI emphasising voluntary industry standards while also supporting specific state level legislation.</li><li>Industry-led safety coordination has precedent, including the 2023 Frontier Model Forum and its associated AI Safety Fund, and the Linux Foundation's Agentic AI Foundation launched in December 2025.</li></ul><p dir="ltr"> Anthropic, OpenAI and Google have been holding working group talks since July on creating a shared, industry led standards body for AI safety, The Information reported, citing people familiar with the discussions. The talks reportedly predate a public call made on Saturday by Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei urging AI companies to slow the pace of capability development and coordinate more closely on safety.</p><p dir="ltr">The reporting suggests the public statements that emerged over the weekend, including Amodei's essay and OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman's public agreement with it, were building on top of an already active private coordination effort rather than initiating one. Google DeepMind chief executive Demis Hassabis had laid some of the groundwork earlier, proposing on July 14 a US based Frontier AI Standards Body modelled on the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the self regulatory body that oversees US broker dealers.</p><p dir="ltr">At an internal employee meeting, Altman reportedly said he supports establishing a testing and auditing body for the AI industry, while adding that without backing from the US government, the major AI labs would need to construct such a body on their own. The three companies appear to hold somewhat different views on the right balance between industry self regulation and government involvement. Anthropic has leaned more explicitly toward partnering with government bodies, with the company's red team lead having publicly advocated in July for safety standards developed jointly with regulators. OpenAI, for its part, has emphasised advancing voluntary standards regardless of federal action, while separately supporting specific state level legislation on AI oversight.</p><p dir="ltr">The core proposal under discussion centres on shared protocols for testing frontier models before public release, including independent evaluations, pre-release safety reviews, and standardised risk assessments, according to reporting on the talks. Each company already maintains its own internal framework for this kind of assessment, with Anthropic's Responsible Scaling Policy and OpenAI's Preparedness Framework both laying out internal processes for evaluating catastrophic risk before deployment, while Google DeepMind has been comparatively less public about the specifics of its own internal safety protocols.</p><p dir="ltr">This is not the first attempt at cross-company coordination on AI safety. The Frontier Model Forum, an industry backed nonprofit launched in 2023 by six major AI companies, has run an associated AI Safety Fund with more than $10 million committed to independent safety research. More recently, the Linux Foundation's Agentic AI Foundation, established in December 2025, brought together open standards projects including Anthropic's Model Context Protocol, Block's Goose, and OpenAI's AGENTS.md. Whether the current talks produce a more formal standards body, and how much authority or government backing it ultimately carries, remains to be seen, with reporting indicating the working group discussions are still ongoing.</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">This is a longer horizon structural story rather than an immediate market mover, but it speaks to the ongoing repricing of Canada's trade relationships since the tariff dispute with Washington escalated. A deeper EU tie-up, if it advances, would represent a meaningful diversification of Canadian trade exposure away from the United States across goods, services, energy, and critical minerals, which could support the loonie over time by reducing dependence on a single, currently strained trading relationship. That said, the practical hurdles are significant. The EU has historically been inflexible on membership style arrangements, and the difficulty in ratifying even the existing, more modest Canada-EU trade deal, still incomplete more than a decade on, suggests any associate membership framework would take years to negotiate and implement. Markets should treat this as a directional signal on Canada's strategic pivot rather than something with near term FX or rates implications.</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr"> Carney is testing whether Canada could become an EU associate member, a strategic hedge against a deteriorating trade relationship with Washington that could reshape everything from worker mobility to energy infrastructure.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>The Wall Street Journal (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/canada-seeks-eu-associate-member-status-as-u-s-trade-talks-collapse-4eebec65" rel="follow">gated</a>&nbsp;weekend article) reported that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney wants closer ties with the European Union and is exploring whether Canada could become an "associate member," a status that does not currently exist and would need to be created.</li><li>The EU is reportedly open to the idea, according to unnamed officials from both the EU and Canada cited by WSJ, despite the bloc's historically inflexible approach to membership arrangements.</li><li>The Canadian embassy in Brussels and European Commission spokespeople did not respond to requests for comment.</li><li>Canada's escalating trade war with the United States, which has produced tariffs on tens of billions of dollars in cross border trade since President Trump returned to office in early 2025, has added urgency to Ottawa's pivot toward other partners.</li><li>Canada and the EU are discussing free movement of goods, services, and workers in strategic sectors including energy, AI, defence, and critical minerals, effectively shifting the EU's economic border, according to WSJ.</li><li>The two sides are also reportedly discussing joint infrastructure projects including underwater cables, data centres, cloud storage, satellite networks, and shipping Canadian energy to the EU.</li><li>Carney has spoken regularly with EU leaders, particularly French President Emmanuel Macron, about visa free living and working arrangements for Canadians in the EU, with the two leaders set to meet later this month.</li><li>The existing, more modest Canada-EU trade deal remains incompletely ratified more than a decade after it was struck and nine years after it provisionally took effect, underscoring the political difficulty of deeper integration.</li></ul><p dir="ltr"> Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is pushing the idea of making Canada an "associate member" of the European Union, a status that does not currently exist within the bloc's framework, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.</p><p dir="ltr">According to the newspaper, which cited unnamed officials from both the EU and Canada, the European Union is open to creating such a status for Canada despite having historically shown little flexibility on membership related arrangements. Neither the Canadian embassy in Brussels nor spokespeople at the European Commission responded to requests for comment on the report.</p><p dir="ltr">The push for closer ties comes as Canada's trade relationship with the United States has deteriorated sharply since President Trump returned to the White House in early 2025, with disputes over trade and other issues resulting in tariffs affecting tens of billions of dollars in cross border commerce. That escalating trade war has added urgency to what WSJ described as a strategic pivot by Ottawa toward other trading partners.</p><p dir="ltr">Per the report, Canada and the EU are discussing arrangements that would allow freer movement of Canadian goods, services, and workers involved in strategic supply chains such as energy, artificial intelligence, defence, and critical minerals, an approach WSJ said would effectively shift the EU's economic border to include parts of the Canadian economy. The two sides are also reportedly discussing joint infrastructure projects, including underwater cables, shared data centres, cloud storage capacity, and new satellite networks, alongside options for shipping Canadian energy directly to European markets.</p><p dir="ltr">Carney has been in regular contact with several EU leaders on the broader initiative, most notably French President Emmanuel Macron, with discussions reportedly including the possibility of visa free living and working arrangements for Canadians within the EU, according to two unnamed officials familiar with the matter cited by WSJ. Carney and Macron are set to meet later this month, though Macron's press office did not respond to a request for comment on the report.</p><p dir="ltr">The scale of ambition behind the initiative is notable given the difficulty the EU and Canada have had implementing even more limited trade cooperation in the past. Fierce opposition met a comparatively modest Canada-EU trade deal when it was first proposed, and more than a decade after that agreement was struck, and nine years since it provisionally entered into force, several EU member states still have not ratified it. That history suggests any move toward a formal associate membership arrangement, however preliminary the current discussions, would likely face a lengthy and contested path before taking effect.</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">The data adds to a modest but building case that New Zealand's services sector is stabilising, which matters for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's read on domestic demand heading into upcoming policy decisions. A third consecutive month of expansion, with the three month moving average also climbing, gives some support to the view that the earlier contraction has passed, though the breadth of the improvement remains limited given three of the five sub-indices are still below the 50 threshold. Soft employment and activity sub-indices, alongside a majority of respondent comments turning negative on cost of living, interest rates, and election uncertainty, suggest this is not yet a signal for the NZD to lean heavily bullish on. Markets are likely to treat this as a modestly supportive but non-decisive data point rather than one that shifts the rate path narrative on its own.</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr">Eyes are not on the kwiwi $ right now:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/oil-gap-higher-saudi-pipeline-shut-after-drone-attack-as-hormuz-meeting-is-postponed" target="_blank" rel="follow">Oil gap higher: Saudi pipeline shut after drone attack as Hormuz meeting is postponed</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr"> New Zealand's services sector notched its strongest reading since returning to growth, but with sentiment souring and half the sub-indices still in contraction, this looks like a fragile recovery rather than a solid turnaround.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>The BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index rose to 51.2 in August from 50.6 in July, marking a third consecutive month of expansion for the services sector.</li><li>August's reading matches December 2025 and is the highest the PSI has been since September 2023.</li><li>BusinessNZ chief executive Katherine Rich described the result as encouraging but said the recovery remains fragile, noting three of the five sub-indices are still below 50.</li><li>Respondent comments turned more negative compared with July, with 60.8% of comments citing cost of living pressures, interest rates, and election uncertainty.</li><li>New Orders/Business was the strongest sub-index at 55.2, followed by Stocks/Inventories at 50.8, while Supplier Deliveries was weakest at 49.0, with Employment and Activity/Sales also soft at 49.4 each.</li><li>BNZ senior economist Doug Steel said the three month moving average, at 50.9, is at its highest level since July 2023, offering some confidence the sector is trending upward despite the fragility.</li></ul><p dir="ltr"> New Zealand's services sector extended its run of growth to three consecutive months in August, according to the BNZ, BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index, though the organisation cautioned the recovery remains fragile.</p><p dir="ltr">The PSI rose to 51.2 in August, up from 50.6 in July and 50.9 in June. Readings above 50 indicate the services sector is generally expanding, while readings below 50 signal contraction. August's figure matches the level recorded in December 2025 and represents the strongest reading since September 2023, giving the sector its best result since it returned to growth.</p><p dir="ltr">BusinessNZ chief executive Katherine Rich welcomed the improvement but tempered expectations, saying it was encouraging to see the index post its strongest reading since the recovery began, while noting the reading of 51.2 still reflects a fragile turnaround. She pointed to three of the five sub-indices remaining below the 50 threshold as evidence there is more ground to cover before the sector can be described as solidly turning around.</p><p dir="ltr">The breakdown of sub-indices supports that cautious framing. New Orders/Business was the strongest component at 55.2, followed by Stocks/Inventories at 50.8. Supplier Deliveries was the weakest sub-index at 49.0, with Employment and Activity/Sales also soft at 49.4 each, underlining that the improvement in headline conditions has not yet broadened evenly across the sector.</p><p dir="ltr">Sentiment among survey respondents softened compared with July, with 60.8% of comments coming in negative. Cost of living pressures, interest rates, and election uncertainty were the themes most frequently cited as weighing on businesses, suggesting that while activity indicators have improved, the underlying mood among services firms has not kept pace.</p><p dir="ltr">BNZ senior economist Doug Steel offered a more constructive read on the trend, noting that the PSI's three month moving average has continued to rise and now sits at 50.9, its highest level since July 2023. Steel said this gives some confidence that the sector is trending upward, even as the fragility BusinessNZ highlighted keeps the overall picture short of a clear and durable recovery.</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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US inflation remained elevated, consumer sentiment weakened, Treasury yields moved mostly higher and Middle East tensions continued to threaten global energy supplies. Nevertheless, US stocks rebounded following four consecutive days of declines, helped by a sharp reversal lower in crude oil (go figure).</p><p>US inflation keeps the Fed on alert</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">The August Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% month-over-month, accelerating from the 0.1% increase in July. Headline inflation remained at 3.4% year-over-year.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% for the month and 2.4% from a year ago. Gasoline prices rose 3.9% in August and accounted for more than one-third of the monthly headline increase.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">The report was not an inflation disaster, but it was not soft enough to remove the possibility of additional tightening. Fed funds futures finished the day pricing close to a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase next week. With the expectations so high, Fed would simply lose even more credibility if they tried to do nothing.&nbsp; The Warsh Fed Era will start with a hike.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Michigan sentiment adds to the inflation concerns</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply to 47.8 in September, down from 51.7 in August and below expectations near 51.0.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">The inflation-expectations component was equally important:</p><ul><li>One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6% from 4.0%</li><li>Five-year inflation expectations edged up to 3.4% from 3.3%</li></ul><p class="isSelectedEnd">Consumers are being squeezed by higher fuel prices, trade tensions and concerns about their personal finances. For the Fed, rising inflation expectations matter because expectations can eventually influence wage demands and pricing behavior.&nbsp; With labor markets tight because of immigration changes and data center build demands, the risk can be real.&nbsp; &nbsp;It's not a great time to be in a prolonged war, but that is where the US is at.&nbsp;</p><p>Treasury yields rise, but the curve flattens</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Shorter-term Treasury yields reacted most strongly to the increased probability of a Fed hike, while the 30-year yield was little changed:</p><ul><li>2-year yield: 4.6275%, +7.8 basis points</li><li>5-year yield: 4.7840%, +5.1 basis points</li><li>10-year yield: 4.9710%, +2.7 basis points</li><li>30-year yield: 5.3576%, -0.3 basis points</li></ul><p class="isSelectedEnd">The larger rise in the 2-year yield reflects the increased probability of tighter Fed policy. The longer end was more contained, leading to a flatter yield curve.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">For the week:</p><ul><li>2-year yield: +25.1 basis points</li><li>5-year yield: +23.6 basis points</li><li>10-year yield: + 18.3 basis points</li><li>30-year yield: +10.9 basis points</li></ul><p>US stocks rebound despite higher yields</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">US stocks moved higher following four consecutive days of declines. The sharp retreat in oil helped ease some inflation concerns, while gains in technology shares provided additional support.</p><ul><li>Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.98% to 52,573.29</li><li>S&amp;P 500 rose 0.86% to 7,656.98</li><li>Nasdaq Composite rose 0.96% to 26,333.04</li><li>Russell 2000 rose 0.40% to 2,903.94</li></ul><p class="isSelectedEnd">For the week:</p><ul><li>Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.57%</li><li>S&amp;P 500: -0.80%</li><li>Nasdaq Composite: -0.66%</li><li>Russell 2000: -2.41%</li><li>Nasdaq 100: -0.59%</li></ul><p class="isSelectedEnd">The rebound recovered part of the week’s decline, but all the major indices still finished lower for the week.</p><p>Foreign currencies versus the US dollar</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">The US dollar finished mixed against the major currencies. Expressed as the performance of each foreign currency versus the dollar:</p><ul><li>Japanese yen: +0.48%</li><li>New Zealand dollar: +0.24%</li><li>Australian dollar: +0.20%</li><li>British pound: +0.10%</li><li>Euro: -0.02%</li><li>Canadian dollar: -0.26%</li><li>Swiss franc: -0.50%</li></ul><p class="isSelectedEnd">The JPY was the strongest currency, while the CHF was the weakest against the US dollar.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">For the week:</p><ul><li>Japanese yen: +1.7%</li><li>New Zealand dollar: -1.14%</li><li>Australian dollar: -0.47%</li><li>British pound: +0.09%</li><li>Euro: -0.13%</li><li>Canadian dollar: -0.27%</li><li>Swiss franc: -0.78%</li></ul><p>Middle East tensions remain elevated</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Middle East risks continued to threaten global energy supplies. Projectiles reportedly struck Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline system, while Houthi forces continued their advance along Yemen’s Red Sea coast.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">The International Energy Agency estimated that Saudi crude supply fell to approximately 6 million barrels per day in August, its lowest level in more than three decades, following attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping routes.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Despite those risks, oil moved sharply lower on Friday. WTI crude fell -$2.43 or -2.37% at $100.05. For the trading week, the price rose $8.54 or 9.35%.&nbsp;</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">That price reaction provides an important lesson for traders. Bullish news does not always lead to a higher price. When a market cannot rally on supportive headlines, it may indicate that the news has already been priced in or that buyers are becoming exhausted. Nevertheless, oil remained sharply higher for the week and the geopolitical risks have not gone away.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Other commodity moves included:</p><ul><li>Gold rose 0.66% to $4,349.44. For the week, the price was down -$80 or -1.81%</li><li>Silver rose 1.23% to $64.41. For the week, the price was down -$1.71 or -2.58%</li><li>Copper was virtually unchanged at $6.5465. For the week, the price fell -$0.12 or -1.90%</li></ul><p>Looking ahead to next week</p><p>With CPI and PPI in the rear view mirror, what key events will&nbsp;dominate next week?&nbsp;</p><p>The event will be highlighted by three major central bank decisions:</p><p>First, the Federal Reserve announces its policy decision on Wednesday. Following the stronger CPI report, markets are pricing close to a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase. The new economic projections, dot plot and Kevin Warsh’s press conference will be just as important as the rate decision itself.&nbsp; We know Fed Chair Warsh does not like things like the dot-plot, but the market does. Will that be resolved.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>Second, the Bank of England meets on Thursday. The BOE is expected to leave its Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, but the vote split and policy guidance will be watched closely—especially after Wednesday’s UK inflation report.</p><p>Third, the Bank of Japan decision presents another potential source of volatility. Markets will be watching to see whether the BOJ lifts its policy rate toward 1.25%. Any surprise, or change in guidance, could produce an outsized move in the JPY.</p><p>Key events by day:</p><ul><li><p>Monday, September 14: Canada CPI, including headline CPI, median CPI and trimmed-mean CPI. Headline CPI is expected to fall 0.1% month-over-month, following a 0.5% increase previously.</p></li><li><p>Tuesday, September 15: UK employment report, including claimant count change. Claims are expected to rise by 8,300, following an 11,000 decline previously.</p></li><li><p>Wednesday, September 16: UK CPI is expected to rise to 3.1% year-over-year from 2.9%. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by its statement, updated economic projections and dot plot. Jerome Powell’s press conference begins at 2:30 PM ET. New Zealand GDP is released later, with growth expected at 0.1% quarter-over-quarter, down from 0.8% previously.</p></li><li><p>Thursday, September 17: The Bank of England releases its rate decision, vote split and Monetary Policy Summary. The Bank Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.75%. The Bank of Japan also announces its policy decision, with the timing listed as tentative.</p></li><li><p>Friday, September 18: The Bank of Japan holds its post-meeting press conference, with the timing also tentative.</p></li></ul><p>With decisions from the Fed, BOE and BOJ, along with inflation reports from Canada and the UK, next week has the potential to be another volatile one across currencies, bonds and equities.</p><p></p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>The $432 billion deficit last month was near a monthly record but it seems as though much of that spending was pulled forward from August as the latest month shows a nice bounce.</p><ul><li>Fiscal Year to date deficit at $1.966 trillion verus $1.973 trillion a year ago</li><li>Outlates $527 billion vs $689 billion a year ago</li><li>Receipts $360 billion vs $344 billion a year ago</li><li>Net cutoms receipts of $12.836 billion</li></ul><p>This number could tad some of the pressure of Treasuries but the month-to-month numbers are tough to get a read on because spending shifts around.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Priorwas 51.0</li><li>Current conditions 50.9 vs 51.3 exp</li><li>Expectations 45.8 vs 50.5 exp</li><li>One-year inflation 4.6% vs 4.0% exp</li><li>Five-year inflation 3.4% vs 3.3% exp</li></ul><p>Those inflation expectations numbers will further tilt the Fed towards hiking rates next week. I think it's a done deal now and the market has it at 82%.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Today is an anniversary.</p><p>Anniversaries are often days of celebration. They are also days of remembrance. Today is not a day to celebrate. It is a day to pause and remember—to remember all those who “slipped the surly bonds of Earth” and touched the face of God.</p><p>I personally knew three people who died that day. Ironically, each was named John, and each was working on the upper floors of the World Trade Center.</p><p>It is difficult to imagine what they went through. In a strange way, I hope the plane struck where they were working and that their lives ended instantly. The alternative—the thought of them trapped by the intense heat, forced to jump or waiting helplessly for the buildings to collapse—is something I would rather not contemplate.</p><p>And yet, even after unimaginable tragedy, something can rise from the ashes. It does not erase the pain or replace what was lost. But there can be a rebound. There can be goodness. Things can get better.</p><p>I had moved to Arizona in August 2001, just one month before the attacks. When the planes struck, I was on the phone with a colleague at FXDD, whose offices were two blocks north of 7 World Trade Center.</p><p>I returned to New York in November and went to our building, which now overlooked the rubble. The electrical smell was unforgettable. The piles of steel and concrete seemed as if they could never be removed. Trucks lined up one after another, were filled and then drove away to wherever they were taking the debris—debris that likely included the remains of some who had died.</p><p>Still, work had restarted. People were moving around the city. I met with friends from the markets, but when we greeted one another, we hugged instead of shaking hands. I listened to their stories. For many, those stories included funeral after funeral. The financial community had suffered a devastating blow, particularly at firms such as Cantor Fitzgerald.</p><p>After one of those meetings, I went to catch a bus to my parents’ home in New Jersey, just off the Garden State Parkway. It was not especially late—perhaps 7:00 in the evening. When I tried to board, the driver stopped me and explained that the last bus serving my exit had already departed. His route ended several exits before mine.</p><p>I stepped off the bus. I thought about all those people who had left home on September 11 and never made it back. I knew that my situation was nothing like theirs. I would find another way. Somehow, I would get home.</p><p>As I started walking away, the bus driver left his bus and caught up with me.</p><p>“I’ll take you home,” he said.</p><p>Even today, remembering that simple act of kindness brings tears to my eyes. It helped shape the way I have tried to live my life ever since.</p><p>When we reached what should have been his final stop and the last passenger got off, I moved to the front row. The driver and I talked as he continued down the Parkway toward my exit. We spoke about the attacks, the lives lost and the city we had just left behind.</p><p>When we finally reached my stop, I thanked him and offered him a tip. He refused. We hugged, and I stepped off the bus.</p><p>I had made it home.</p><p>On an anniversary such as this, we remember the lives that were lost and the pain that remains. But we should also remember the goodness that survived—the compassion, humanity and quiet acts of kindness that helped people find their way through the darkness.</p><p>That night, through the kindness of one bus driver, I saw the phoenix rise from the ashes.Rest in peace John, John and John and may God keep your loved ones you left behind firmly in the palm of His hand.&nbsp;</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>I'm increasingly conviced that the trade in AI is no longer the model makers or the vendors, but at the user level. This is the RAMP trade that I've been <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/the-haven-from-the-ai-disruption-might-be-a-halo-20260213/" rel="follow">writing about</a> since last year (real assets, margin potential).</p><p>Today we get some insight into how it will unfold and the potential.</p><p>At this point, you don't need to build the best AI model to make money from artificial intelligence. You might just need a fleet of garbage trucks and a better way to route them.</p><p>Waste Connections offers an interesting example of where this could be heading in hard-asset industries.&nbsp;The company estimates its first wave of AI initiatives can deliver roughly 100 basis points of margin expansion by 2030, in comments to CIBC analysts.</p><p>What is the plan?</p><p>"Pricing optimisation tools have already contributed to stronger retained pricing, while dynamic AI-enabled route optimisation is expected to improve fleet utilisation, labour productivity and routing efficiency in 2027," CIBC writes.</p><p>That's a blueprint for what other heavy-asset industries will do. We've already heard about airlines using AI to re-price flights and I'd expect much more of that as companies look to more-quickly align pricing with higher demand, and exploit it.</p><p>Another use case that you've likely seen already is in customer service.</p><p>"WCN also highlighted customer-service automation as a significant opportunity, noting that the company receives ~700,000 to more than 1MM inbound customer calls per month and believes technology could ultimately eliminate 60%-65% of those interactions through proactive customer communication, mobile applications and agentic AI."</p><p>The company stresses that this is just the beginning and is seeing quick paybacks on technology investments.</p><p>In terms of earnings and the stock price, what is 100 bps of margin? In a business like waste management, it's surprisingly little. It's a high-margin business and going from 30% to 31% maps to a 4-5% rise in the stock price. That's obviously good but it's not exactly a big endorsement of the massive capex going into the space and the ungodly multiples put on model-makers and their vendors. it's also notable that Waste Connections is a $40 billion company that's only planning to invest $100m in technology, and it's not clear how much of that is AI specific.</p><p>Where I would focus is on industries that operate at very low margins: auto parts, aviation, steel, chemicals, packaging, food processing and trucking are some that come to mind. For a company earning a 3% operating margin, adding a point means improving operating profit by a third. That's worth digging in on.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-july-cpi-y-y-vs-3-4-expected/" rel="follow">Prior </a>was 3.4%</li><li>Unrounded +3.397% vs +3.365% prior</li><li>CPI m/m +0.4% vs +0.4% exp</li><li>Prior CPI was +0.1%</li><li>Unrounded CPI m/m +0.396% vs +0.074% prior</li></ul><p>Core readings:</p><ul><li>Core y/y 2.4% vs 2.4% expected</li><li>Prior core was 2.5%</li><li>Core unrounded +2.446% y/y</li><li>Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.2% expected</li><li>Prior m/m +0.2%</li><li>Unrounded +0.318% m/m vs +0.215% prior</li><li>Core goods +0.11% m/m vs +0.2% prior</li><li>Real weekly earnings +0.2% vs 0.0% prior (revised to +0.1%)</li><li>Supercore +0.511% m/m vs +0.189% prior -- highest since Jan</li><li>Supercore +3.022% y/y vs +2.843%</li></ul><p>Ahead of the report, the market was pricing in a 68% chance of a rate hike in September and 43.7 bps in hikes this year. USD/JPY was trading at 154.01 ahead of the report. The intial market reaction was buying the US dollar on the slight beat on core m/m.</p><p>After the report, the market is pricing in an 82% chance of a hike next week.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Key sub-components:</p><ul><li>Owners' equivalent rent: +0.2% vs +0.3% prior </li><li> Rent of primary residence: +0.2% vs +0.3% prior </li><li> Motor vehicle insurance: -0.8% vs -0.3% prior </li><li> Airfares: +2.7% vs +2.2% prior </li><li> Used cars: +0.4% vs +0.4% prior </li><li> Apparel: 0.0% vs +0.1% prior </li><li> Medical care: -0.2% vs +0.4% prior </li><li> Lodging away from home: +2.4% vs -2.8% prior </li><li> Energy m/m: +2.1% vs -1.5% prior </li><li> Gasoline m/m: +3.9% vs -2.9% prior </li><li> Food m/m: +0.1% vs +0.1% prior</li><li>New vehicles +0.3%, the largest since Dec 2024</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">A strange one is wireless telephone services, which were up 5.9% m/m. That's the largest increase on record.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Gasoline alone accounted for 0.140pp of the 0.4% headline, but that's no surprise. The way we're going, that will be a significantly bigger number for September.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">In terms of drags,&nbsp;motor vehicle insurance was -5.1% y/y, which is the lowest since Nov 2020 and health insurace was -8.5% y/y.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Update: In terms of market reaction, we're seeing a reversal of the initial USD rally and a pickup in risk assets. That's a counter-intuitive move as Fed funds futures continue to price in a more-hawkish path. The market is likely reacting to reports that Gulf countries are considering a plan that would let Iran and Oman control shipping through Hormuz, in a possible path to peace. That has oil prices down by $3.21 per barrel.</p><ul></ul> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="/commodities/gold-falls-back-into-the-major-4300-support-ahead-of-us-cpi-as-surging-oil-prices-increase-rate-hike-bets" rel="follow">Gold falls back into the major $4300 support ahead of US CPI, as surging oil prices increase rate hike bets</a></li><li><a href="/news/yemen-s-iran-backed-houthis-have-completed-the-takeover-of-bab-el-mandeb-strait" rel="follow">Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis have completed the takeover of Bab el-Mandeb Strait</a></li><li><a href="/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-trades-at-a-major-support-ahead-of-the-us-cpi-report-what-to-watch-next" rel="follow">Bitcoin trades at a major support ahead of the US CPI report. What to watch next?</a></li><li><a href="/news/what-is-the-distribution-of-forecasts-for-the-us-cpi-1" rel="follow">What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?</a></li><li><a href="/news/iran-gains-stronger-leverage-as-oil-surges-above-100-forcing-urgent-diplomatic-solutions" rel="follow">Iran gains stronger leverage as oil surges above $100, forcing urgent diplomatic solutions</a></li><li><a href="/education/trading-went-around-the-clock-can-settlement-keep-up" rel="follow">Trading Went Around the Clock. Can Settlement Keep Up?</a></li><li><a href="/news/uk-july-monthly-gdp-xx-vs-0-0-m-m-expected" rel="follow">UK July monthly GDP +0.4% vs 0.0% m/m expected</a></li><li><a href="/orders/fx-option-expiries-for-11-september-10am-new-york-cut-0" rel="follow">FX option expiries for 11 September 10am New York cut</a></li><li><a href="/news/what-are-the-main-events-for-today-40" rel="follow">What are the main events for today?</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">WTI crude oil down -3.46% to $98.93</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Gold up +0.45% to $4335</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">EUR/USD down -0.15% to 1.1592</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">USD/JPY down -0.29% to 153.97</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">S&amp;P 500 up +0.50% to 7636.75</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Bitcoin up +0.32% to $76,770</li></ul><p>It's been a quiet session with limited data and news releases ahead of the US CPI release. The only economic report was the UK GDP which showed a growth of 0.4% m/m in July&nbsp;beating expectations for 0.0% growth and marking the strongest annual growth rate since February 2025. The upside was driven mainly by the services sector, particularly computer programming and R&amp;D, although the broader outlook remains clouded by higher energy costs, elevated borrowing costs and geopolitical uncertainty.</p><p>On the geopolitics side, the oil prices surging above $100 have increased pressure for a diplomatic solution to the Iran conflict, giving Tehran greater leverage as disruptions in the Middle East tighten global energy supplies. The key event to watch is Monday’s GCC meeting where Gulf states are expected to discuss with Iran the reopening of the strait.</p><p>Moreover, the AFP reported that the Houthis completed their takeover of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, giving them control over the other critical chokepoint for global shipping and energy flows. With both routes basically controlled by Iran, the importance of a quick diplomatic resolution got stronger.&nbsp;</p><p>Despite this backdrop, we've seen oil prices falling by more than 3% in the morning and US equities erasing most of yesterday's losses. It might be just daily noise, profit-taking or expectations for a surprising breakthrough over the weekend.</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">In the American session, all eyes will be on the US CPI report. The headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.4% vs 3.4% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.4% vs 0.1% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.4% vs 2.5% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.2% vs 0.2% prior.</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">The Core M/M measure will be the one to watch, as that's what the Fed members have been focusing on. Fed's Waller recently said that he would consider a rate hike in September if the monthly core reading surprises to the upside. Unfortunately, that was before the latest surge in oil prices, with WTI crude now trading above the $100 level.</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">The break of that psychological level triggered a hawkish repricing across the board, with traders now pricing in a 67% chance of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting. I feel like an in-line CPI won't be enough to steer the market away from expecting a rate hike. If we go into the FOMC meeting with higher probabilities for a rate hike, then the Fed will be forced to hike just to avoid delivering a dovish surprise.</p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer"></p><p></p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p></p><p>Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis have completed the takeover of Bab el-Mandeb Strait after capturing strategic points in the Red Sea, according to the AFP.&nbsp;Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and provides a key maritime route between the Indian Ocean, the Suez Canal and Europe. Around 10% of global trade passes through this waterway. </p><p>That leaves global energy flows facing pressure from both ends of the Arabian Peninsula. Iran's disruption of Hormuz threatens the main route out of the Persian Gulf, while Houthi control of Bab el-Mandeb creates another bottleneck for shipments moving through the Red Sea and toward the Suez Canal.</p><p>For the optimists, this increases Iran's leverage significantly and could force the US out of the war which would bring oil prices to pre-war levels. For the pessimists, Trump might not care much about it and keep waiting, hoping that the sanctions and the attacks force Iran to surrender first.&nbsp;</p><p>The current situation is very dangerous for markets and the global economy. Traders got used to Trump's TACOs and they've always worked, even if just in the short-term. I feel like the market might start sensing some kind of resolution as soon as Trump backtracks on his midterm comments. I think that would be enough for a pullback as positioning became quite stretched in recent weeks. With the <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/iran-gains-stronger-leverage-as-oil-surges-above-100-forcing-urgent-diplomatic-solutions/" rel="follow">GCC meeting on Monday</a> and potentially a Fed rate hike on Wednesday, I would keep a close eye on de-escalatory headlines and any Trump comment.</p><p>WTI CRUDE OIL - DAILY TIMEFRAME</p><p>&nbsp;The technical picture is promising. We can see on the daily chart that the price got rejected around the upper-bound of the channel, near the key 105.00 swing level. This might be a mix of profit-taking and sellers leaning on key levels to position for a de-escalation, targeting the lower-bound of the channel. If the US-Iran story doesn't change, though, we will likely see oil resuming the uptrend with dip-buyers stepping in around key levels on lower timeframes.</p><p>WTI CRUDE OIL - 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p>&nbsp;On the 1 hour chart, we have minor trendlines that could offer traders some opportunities. The buyers will look for a break above the minor downward trendline or a pullback into the major upward one to pile in for new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for short opportunities around the minor downward trendline and on the break below the major one.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">CPI Y/Y</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">3.8% (4%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">3.5% (4%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">3.4% (67%) - consensus</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">3.3% (25%)</li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">CPI M/M</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.4% (76%) - consensus</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.3% (23%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.2% (1%) </li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">Core CPI Y/Y</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">2.7% (2%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">2.5% (6%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">2.4% (82%) - consensus</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">2.3% (10%)</li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">Core CPI M/M</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.3% (10%)</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.2% (88%) - consensus</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">0.1% (2%)</li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">The Core CPI M/M will be the one to watch, as that's what the Fed members have been focusing on. Fed's Waller recently said that he would consider a rate hike in September if the monthly core reading surprises to the upside. Unfortunately, that was before the latest surge in oil prices, with WTI crude now trading above the $100 level.</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">The break of that psychological level triggered a hawkish repricing across the board, with traders now pricing in a 67% chance of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting. I feel like an in-line CPI won't be enough to steer the market away from expecting a rate hike. If we go into the FOMC meeting with higher probabilities for a rate hike, then the Fed will be forced to hike just to avoid delivering a dovish surprise.</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; transition: 0.3s; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial">In light of this, I think only a soft Core CPI could give the market some short-term relief. An upside surprise, on the other hand, might exacerbate the risk-off sentiment as the market could start expecting an even more aggressive path for rate hikes.&nbsp;</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p></p><p>Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel&nbsp;this week as the market started to price in a prolonged disruption to energy flows after <a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/trump-says-oil-prices-won-t-come-down-until-after-the-midterms-3/" rel="follow">Trump's midterm comments</a>. Brent climbed as high as around $109 yesterday, while WTI moved above $104, with both benchmarks on track for their strongest weekly gains in months. </p><p>Iran's foreign minister and Pakistan's army chief have been discussing ways to restore diplomatic efforts and de-escalate the conflict on all fronts.&nbsp;Islamabad has also been pressing Tehran to rein in the Iran-backed Houthis following their attacks on Saudi Arabia.</p><p>The diplomatic push is gaining momentum ahead of a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/df2d9bcc-59f9-4122-aa4d-2020bef77e0e?syn-25a6b1a6=1" rel="follow">Monday meeting in Oman</a> where the foreign ministers of the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council are expected to meet their Iranian counterpart. The meeting would be the first high-level diplomatic gathering between Iran and the GCC since the war began, highlighting the growing urgency to restore shipping flows.</p><p>The sharp increase in oil prices above the psychological $100 level now gives Tehran greater leverage in negotiations. The key issue remains the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global energy supplies passes. Iran and Oman have been working on an interim arrangement that could facilitate shipping through the waterway.</p><p>However, an agreement between Iran and Oman alone is unlikely to fully reopen the strait. Iran has made clear that it wants the US to meet several conditions before allowing the waterway to return to normal. These include lifting the blockade on Iranian ports, reinstating a waiver allowing Iran to sell oil and giving Tehran access to some of its frozen overseas assets.&nbsp;</p><p>With oil prices above $100, the economic cost of keeping Hormuz disrupted is becoming significantly larger for the US and the global economy as long-term yields make new cycle highs. Iran just gained significant leverage to extract concessions from the US.&nbsp;</p><p>I feel like the market might start sensing some kind of resolution as soon as Trump backtracks on his midterm comments. I think that would be enough for a pullback as positioning became quite stretched in recent weeks. With the GCC meeting on Monday and potentially a Fed rate hike on Wednesday, I would keep a close eye on de-escalatory headlines and any Trump comment.&nbsp;</p><p></p><p></p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-alternates: inherit; font-variant-position: inherit; font-weight: 400; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 20px; padding: 0 0 0 19px; font-family: Inter, InterFallback, serif; list-style: outside; text-indent: -3px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 1); letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0; white-space: normal; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 1); text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-size: 16px"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Prior +0.3%</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">GDP Y/Y +1.6% vs +1.0% expected</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Prior +1.1%</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-kerning: inherit; font-feature-settings: inherit; font-language-override: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; border: 0; margin: 0 0 4px; padding: 0">Full report <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/july2026" rel="follow">here</a></li></ul><p>The UK economy maintained its recent pace of growth in the three months to July, with real GDP rising 0.4% compared with the three months to April. The increase marks the eighth consecutive three-month period of growth, although momentum has eased from the 0.6% expansion recorded in the three months to May.</p><p>Services remained the main driver of growth, with output increasing 0.6% over the three-month period. In contrast, production and construction both contracted by 0.5%.</p><p>The monthly figures were more encouraging. UK GDP grew 0.4% in July, accelerating from 0.3% in June and no growth in May. Growth was broad-based, with services output rising 0.4%, production increasing 0.2% and construction growing 0.1%.</p><p>On an annual basis, GDP was 1.6% higher in July than a year earlier. Over the three months to July, GDP increased 1.3% year-on-year, with services up 1.7% and production up 0.5%. Construction, however, remained weak falling 2.3% from a year earlier.</p><p>The much stronger than expected July reading shows that the UK economy is retaining momentum despite recent headwinds stemming from increased borrowing costs and higher energy prices. Overall, the data suggests growth remains resilient and that should keep the tightening bias for the BoE intact, especially after the recent surge in oil prices.&nbsp;</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, the only highlight is the monthly UK GDP data which is expected to show a 0.0% growth in July. The data is unlikely to change much for the BoE, though, as the majority of policymakers continue to exercise patience. The market, on the other hand, has been increasing rate hike bets following the surge in oil prices, with two rate hikes priced in by year-end starting in November.&nbsp;</p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, all eyes will be on the US CPI report. The headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.4% vs 3.4% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.4% vs 0.1% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.4% vs 2.5% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.2% vs 0.2% prior.&nbsp;</p><p>The Core M/M measure will be the one to watch, as that's what the Fed members have been focusing on. Fed's Waller recently said that he would consider a rate hike in September if the monthly core reading surprises to the upside. Unfortunately, that was before the latest surge in oil prices, with WTI crude now trading above the $100 level.&nbsp;</p><p>The break of that psychological level triggered a hawkish repricing across the board, with traders now pricing in a 65% chance of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting. I feel like an in-line CPI won't be enough to steer the market away from expecting a rate hike. If we go into the FOMC meeting with higher probabilities for a rate hike, then the Fed will be forced to hike just to avoid delivering a dovish surprise.&nbsp;</p><p>CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS</p><ul><li>14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - ECB President Lagarde (neutral - voter)</li><li>17:00 GMT/13:00 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/central-banks/boj-hike-next-week-is-a-given-the-real-question-is-pace-and-terminal-rate" rel="follow">BOJ hike next week is a given, the real question is pace and terminal rate</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/houthis-claim-total-control-of-bab-el-mandeb-but-wires-haven-t-confirmed-it" rel="follow">Houthis claim total control of Bab el-Mandeb, but wires haven't confirmed it</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/anz-sees-ecb-hiking-again-in-december-lifting-deposit-rate-to-2-75" rel="follow">ANZ sees ECB hiking again in December, lifting deposit rate to 2.75%</a></li><li><a href="/stock-market-update/preview-august-cpi-due-friday-to-decide-odds-of-first-fed-hike-since-2023" rel="follow">Preview: August CPI due Friday to decide odds of first Fed hike since 2023</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/coming-up-what-lagarde-may-say-next-two-days-after-the-ecb-s-rate-rise" rel="follow">Coming up: What Lagarde may say next, two days after the ECB's rate rise</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-for-today-at-6-vs-estimate-at-6-7174" rel="follow">PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7743 (vs. estimate at 6.7174)</a></li><li><a href="/news/japan-wholesale-inflation-stays-hot-in-august-cements-case-for-boj-hike" rel="follow">Japan wholesale inflation stays hot in August, cements case for BOJ hike</a></li><li><a href="/stock-market-update/nikkei-kospi-fall-as-us-bond-yields-and-inflation-data-spook-markets" rel="follow">Nikkei, Kospi fall as US bond yields and inflation data spook markets</a></li><li><a href="/news/japan-august-ppi-surges-7-6-y-y-expected-7-4-prior-7-2" rel="follow">Japan August PPI surges +7.6% y/y (expected +7.4%, prior +7.2%)</a></li><li><a href="/education/fartcoin-selloff-here-s-what-most-traders-miss-about-exchange-inflow-selling-signals" rel="follow">FARTCOIN selloff - Here's what most traders miss about 'exchange inflow' selling signals</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/nvidia-s-huang-rejects-circular-financing-claims-as-investment-scrutiny-grows" rel="follow">Nvidia's Huang rejects circular financing claims as investment scrutiny grows</a></li><li><a href="/news/nz-manufacturing-growth-slows-in-august-but-stays-above-long-term-average" rel="follow">NZ manufacturing growth slows in August but stays above long-term average</a></li><li><a href="/orders/fx-option-expiries-for-11-september-10am-new-york-cut" rel="follow">FX option expiries for 11 September 10am New York cut</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/vessels-hit-near-hormuz-as-satellite-images-fuel-saudi-pipeline-attack-claims" rel="follow">Vessels hit near Hormuz as satellite images fuel Saudi pipeline attack claims</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/brent-oil-surging-houthi-attack-on-saudi-east-west-pipeline-the-likely-culprit" rel="follow">Brent oil surging. Houthi attack on Saudi East-West pipeline the likely culprit</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/unverified-satellite-data-fuels-talk-of-fresh-hit-on-saudi-arabia-s-east-west-pipeline" rel="follow">Unverified satellite data fuels talk of fresh hit on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/adobe-tops-q3-estimates-but-soft-revenue-guidance-clouds-outlook" rel="follow">Adobe tops Q3 estimates but soft revenue guidance clouds outlook</a></li><li><a href="/stocks/us-stocks-close-lower-as-rising-yields-and-100-oil-prices-pressure-the-indices" rel="follow">US stocks close lower as rising yields and $100+ oil prices pressure the indices</a></li><li><a href="/news/investinglive-americas-market-news-wrap-oil-climbs-7" rel="follow">investingLive Americas market news wrap: Oil climbs 7%</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>Satellite imagery reportedly shows fire hotspots at multiple points along Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline near Medina, fuelling unverified claims of a Houthi strike; no confirmation has come from Aramco, Saudi authorities or wire services</li><li>Oil prices held near Thursday's multi-year highs</li><li>The pipeline, also known as Petroline, is Saudi Arabia's main export route bypassing the closed Strait of Hormuz, carrying crude roughly 1,200 kilometres from the Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu; it was hit in a confirmed attack in April that cut throughput by around 700,000 barrels per day</li><li>The US 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.97%, its highest level since October 2023 and nearing that year's peak</li><li>Gold slipped toward $4,300</li><li>Japan's corporate goods price index rose 7.6% year on year in August, above the 7.4% forecast, reinforcing expectations the Bank of Japan will raise rates to 1.25% at next week's meeting</li><li>Asia-Pacific equities fell broadly at the open, with the Nikkei now down nearly 3% and the Kospi down around 2.5%, as surging oil and rising yields weighed on risk sentiment amid the widening Iran war</li></ul><p dir="ltr">Oil prices held near Thursday's multi-year highs on Friday as satellite imagery reportedly showing "catstrophic" (according to some reports) fire hotspots along Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline fuelled unverified reports of a Houthi strike on the route. A comparison of Sentinel-3 satellite passes from September 9 and 10, cited by open-source researchers, appeared to show a large smoke plume and elevated thermal signature near the pipeline close to Medina, with multiple hotspots detected along the route at roughly the same time. As of writing, no confirmation of the reported strike had come from Saudi Aramco, Saudi authorities or established wire services, and the claims should be treated as unverified pending official comment.</p><p dir="ltr">The pipeline in question, also known as Petroline, is one of Saudi Arabia's key alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, carrying crude roughly 1,200 kilometres from the Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. It has a stated capacity of up to seven million barrels per day, with roughly five million barrels per day used for direct export and a further two million barrels per day routed to refineries for processing. The route has been targeted before, including a confirmed attack in April that cut throughput by an estimated 700,000 barrels per day. Should the latest reports be verified and shown to have meaningfully disabled sections of the pipeline, market participants widely view this as the kind of event capable of materially disrupting Saudi export capacity, given the route's role as the kingdom's principal bypass for the closed Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing Iran war.</p><p dir="ltr">Elsewhere in markets, the US 10-year Treasury yield extended its rise to above 4.97%, its highest level since October 2023 and closing in on that year's peak. Gold drifted lower, slipping toward $4,300. In Japan, data released Friday showed the corporate goods price index rose 7.6% year on year in August, ahead of the 7.4% forecast, with import prices up 24.8% on continued yen weakness. The reading reinforces market expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate to 1.25% at next week's meeting, a move markets had already largely priced in.</p><p dir="ltr">Asia-Pacific equities fell broadly at the open as the combination of surging oil prices, rising bond yields and the widening Iran war, including concerns over shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, weighed on risk sentiment. Japan's Nikkei was down nearly 3% and South Korea's Kospi fell around 2.5% in early trading, extending losses tied to the broader geopolitical and inflation-driven pressure building across markets this week.</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">August's corporate goods price index reinforces what markets had already priced in, that the Bank of Japan is close to certain to raise rates to 1.25% at next week's meeting, so the immediate surprise value for JPY crosses is limited. The more interesting detail is the import price index, up 24.8% year on year, which points to continued yen weakness feeding directly into domestic cost pressures rather than easing as some had hoped. That keeps alive the more hawkish end of rate expectations, with analysts now pencilling in a further hike to 1.75% in the second quarter of 2027, earlier than previously anticipated. For JPY, the data supports the broader narrative of a BOJ playing catch-up on inflation, which should continue to underpin the currency against peers still years away from their own tightening cycles, though a hike that's already near fully priced tends to produce a smaller reaction on the day itself than the scale of the move might suggest.</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr">Earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/nikkei-kospi-fall-as-us-bond-yields-and-inflation-data-spook-markets" target="_blank" rel="follow">Nikkei, Kospi fall as US bond yields and inflation data spook markets</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr"> Japan's wholesale prices came in hotter than expected again, leaving the Bank of Japan with little room to avoid a rate hike next week.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>Japan's corporate goods price index (CGPI) rose 7.6% year on year in August, above the 7.4% forecast, following a revised 7.7% gain in July</li><li>On a month-on-month basis, the index fell 0.2% in August, against expectations for a flat reading, after a revised 0.4% increase in July</li><li>The yen-based import price index rose 24.8% year on year in August, easing from a revised 29.3% surge in July but still reflecting the impact of yen weakness on import costs</li><li>Rising fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict and higher import prices from a weak yen have added to inflation pressure on Japanese firms</li><li>Markets are near fully pricing in a BOJ rate hike to 1.25% from 1% at next week's (17–18 September) policy meeting, following June's hike to a 31-year high of 1% and a hold in July</li><li>Analysts polled by Reuters now expect a further hike to 1.75% in the second quarter of 2027, earlier than previously forecast</li></ul><p dir="ltr">Japan's wholesale inflation remained elevated in August, data released Friday showed, adding to the pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next week. The corporate goods price index, which tracks the prices companies charge each other for goods and services, rose 7.6% from a year earlier, ahead of a median market forecast for a 7.4% increase and following a revised 7.7% gain in July. On a monthly basis, the index slipped 0.2% in August after a revised 0.4% rise the previous month.</p><p dir="ltr">The data follows a run of hawkish signalling from the BOJ that has already pushed markets close to fully pricing in a rate increase to 1.25% from the current 1% at next week's meeting. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly pointed to wholesale inflation as a key indicator the central bank is watching closely, since the pace at which firms can pass rising costs through to consumers helps determine how durable the broader inflation picture is likely to be.</p><p dir="ltr">A significant driver of the pressure came from import costs. The yen-based import price index rose 24.8% year on year in August, moderating from a revised 29.3% jump in July but still historically high, underscoring how a weak yen continues to push up the cost of goods and materials brought into the country. Rising fuel prices tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict have compounded that pressure, adding a second inflationary channel alongside currency weakness. Taken together, the BOJ has warned of the risk that Japan's inflation could overshoot its target rather than settle at a sustainable level.</p><p dir="ltr">The central bank raised rates to a 31-year high of 1% in June, judging that Japan was approaching a durable achievement of its 2% inflation target, before holding steady in July while flagging a strong likelihood of near-term tightening. Friday's data does little to change that trajectory. Analysts polled by Reuters now expect the BOJ to proceed with a hike to 1.25% next week, followed by a further increase to 1.75% in the second quarter of 2027, a timeline that has moved earlier as concerns mount over both broadening domestic price pressures and continued yen weakness. With inflation running persistently above target across multiple measures, the path of least resistance for Japanese monetary policy continues to point toward further, and potentially earlier, tightening.</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>ADDED: Follow up post with more here</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/japan-wholesale-inflation-stays-hot-in-august-cements-case-for-boj-hike" target="_blank" rel="follow">Japan wholesale inflation stays hot in August, cements case for BOJ hike</a></li></ul><p></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">The August reading confirms New Zealand's manufacturing sector is still growing, but the pace is clearly moderating, a signal that may feed into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's broader read on domestic activity alongside employment and price data. The flat employment sub-index, sitting right at the 50.0 breakeven line, is arguably the more sensitive data point for rate-path watchers, since a slip below that mark would point to actual sector job losses rather than simply slower hiring intentions. Steady New Orders and Finished Stocks readings suggest underlying demand has not cracked, which should temper any reading of this print as a genuine downturn signal. For NZD crosses, a soft but still-expansionary PMI is unlikely to be a standalone catalyst, though it adds to the broader picture of a New Zealand economy navigating cost pressures and external headwinds without yet tipping into contraction.</p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr">Last week:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/rbnz-chief-says-rate-settings-still-accommodative-despite-hikes/" rel="follow">RBNZ lifts OCR to 2.75%, Governor&nbsp;Breman says more hikes are coming, just don't ask her when.</a></li></ul><p dir="ltr"></p><p dir="ltr">---</p><p dir="ltr">New Zealand manufacturing kept growing in August, just at a softer pace, with employment the sub-index worth watching closest.</p><p dir="ltr">Summary:</p><ul dir="ltr"><li>BNZ-BusinessNZ's Performance of Manufacturing Index fell to a seasonally adjusted 53.1 in August, down from 54.3 in July, but above the survey's long-term average of 52.5</li><li>Employment was the weakest sub-index at 50.0, essentially unchanged after easing from 52.2 in July</li><li>New Orders (54.9) and Finished Stocks (56.4) held up best among the sub-indices</li><li>Production (54.2) and Deliveries (52.6) softened from July but stayed in expansion</li><li>Negative sentiment rose to 55.7% of respondent comments, though many also cited steady or improving order books</li><li>BusinessNZ's Catherine Beard pointed to cost of living pressures and the Middle East conflict as factors holding some respondents back, while BNZ's Doug Steel noted the three-month moving average of the PMI continues to rise</li></ul><p dir="ltr">New Zealand's manufacturing sector extended its run of expansion into August, according to the latest BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index, though the pace of growth eased from the previous month. The seasonally adjusted headline index came in at 53.1, down 1.2 points from July's 54.3, but still comfortably above the survey's long-term average of 52.5, marking more than a year of continuous expansion for the sector.</p><p dir="ltr">BusinessNZ's Director of Advocacy, Catherine Beard, described the result as encouraging given the broader environment, noting that manufacturing has now held onto expansion for over a year even as growth cools. She flagged employment as the sub-index warranting closest attention, sitting exactly at the 50.0 breakeven level that separates expansion from contraction. Beard said respondents continued to cite cost of living pressures and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as reasons for caution, though she added that New Orders and Finished Stocks remaining firmly in expansionary territory pointed to genuine underlying demand rather than a sector losing momentum outright.</p><p dir="ltr">The sub-index detail supports that reading. New Orders came in at 54.9 and Finished Stocks at 56.4, both holding up better than the headline figure. Production eased to 54.2 and Deliveries to 52.6, both softer than July but still above the 50.0 threshold. Employment was the standout laggard, essentially flat after slipping from 52.2 in July to 50.0 in August, a signal that hiring intentions across the sector may be stalling even as output and orders hold firmer.</p><p dir="ltr">Sentiment among respondents softened for a second consecutive month, with 55.7% of comments classified as negative, though BusinessNZ noted a reasonable share of respondents pointed to steady or improving order books as a counterpoint. BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel struck a similarly balanced tone, noting that while the August print was weaker than July's 54.3 reading, the three-month moving average of the PMI continues to trend higher, which he said indicates the sector is performing well through the usual month-to-month volatility. Taken together, the data suggests New Zealand's manufacturers are navigating a genuinely mixed backdrop, cost pressures and geopolitical uncertainty on one side, resilient demand on the other, without yet tipping into outright contraction.</p><p dir="ltr"></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="/news/the-us-treasury-bought-5-187-billion-in-10-20-year-notes" rel="follow">The US Treasury bought $5.187 billion in 10-20 year notes</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-treasury-sells-22-billion-of-30-year-bonds-at-a-high-yield-of-5-308" rel="follow">US treasury sells $22 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 5.308%</a></li><li><a href="/commodities/eia-weekly-us-crude-oil-inventories-391k-vs-1554k-expected" rel="follow">EIA weekly US crude oil inventories -391K vs -1554K expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-wholesale-inventories-1-3-in-line-with-expectations" rel="follow">US wholesale inventories +1.3% in line with expectations</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-august-existing-home-sales-3-98m-vs-3-98m-expected" rel="follow">US August existing home sales 3.98m vs 3.98m expected</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/ecb-s-lagarde-the-economy-is-proving-resilient" rel="follow">ECB's Lagarde: The economy is proving resilient</a></li><li><a href="/news/us-august-ppi-5-4-vs-5-3-expected" rel="follow">US August PPI 5.4% vs 5.3% expected</a></li><li><a href="/news/jobless-claims-show-steady-us-employment-picture-initial-claims-206k-vs-205k-estimate" rel="follow">Jobless claims show steady US employment picture. Initial claims 206K vs 205k estimate</a></li><li><a href="/central-banks/ecb-hikes-by-25-basis-points-as-expected" rel="follow">ECB hikes by 25 basis points, as expected</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>WTI crude oil up $6.67 to $102.72</li><li>Gold down $78 to $4322</li><li>US 10-year yields up 12 bps to 4.95%</li><li>USD leads, AUD lags</li><li>S&amp;P 500 down 0.5%</li></ul><p>This is one of those days where the hairline fractures in the market split open. Eyes were on PPI today but oil stole the show. Yesterday, Trump indicated that the Iran war wouldn't end until after the midterms and that set off a scamble for supply and a ninth-consecutive day of crude buying. It hardly slowed at any point and crude rose 7%, blasting through $100 to as high as $103.06 and trading only marginally below that late in the day.</p><p>The climb in oil was compounded by a slightly hot PPI report but that number created some fresh angst into tomorrow's pivotal CPI report. Fed pricing ahead of that is for a 70% chance of a hike. After CPI tomorrow it could be 40% or it could be 95%. Or the market could simply look ahead to the following report when these jumps in energy prices are going to be inflationary.</p><p>The Treasury market was unequivocal about the implications as yields rose 8-14 bps across the curve, led by the front end.&nbsp;</p><p>The ECB may have given a nudge towards the hawkish thinking at the Fed as Lagarde called the hike (which was expected) a no brainer and said growth had been surprisingly strong. The euro was reluctant to rise but ended in second place behind the dollar as we price in another hike this year.</p><p>The Australian dollar was under solid pressure as metals prices fell and risk aversion dominated. Copper quickly retreated from yesterday's record high as fears about macro economic weakness hit.</p><p></p><p></p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>The next Treasury buyback is Sept 24.</p><p>I wouldn't read too much into this result because it's the first one in the series so the market might be feeling it out. That said, the market was disappointed this week at only $6 billion and $5.187 billion is even lower than that. US 10-year yields hit the highs of the day afterwards and the highs since 2023.</p><p>Not coincidentally, the Nasdaq is at the lows of the day, down 1.0%.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>The U.S. Treasury has auctioned off $22 million and 30 year bonds at a high yield of 5.308%</p><ul><li>WI level at the time of the auction 5.335%</li><li>Tail -2.7 basis points&nbsp;versus 013 basis points average</li><li>Bid to cover&nbsp;2.61X&nbsp;versus average of&nbsp;2.38X</li><li>DIrects (domestic buyers) 18.3%&nbsp;versus 22.1% average</li><li>Indirects (international buyers)&nbsp;79.5% versus 66.4% average</li><li>Dealers (they get the rest)&nbsp;2.2% versus 11.5% average.</li></ul><p>I don't think I've ever seen a dealer number as low as 2.2%. The big buyer was international at 79.5%. I wonder if the bond buyback influenced the buying interest today. Of course the US yield are near the highs going back to 2007.&nbsp; &nbsp;Yields have come off a bit.&nbsp; US stocks are still down but near the highs.&nbsp; Crude oil is off $102.60 spike high but still at $101.58.&nbsp;</p><p>Overall grade:&nbsp; A&nbsp;</p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">Of note is that the U.S. Treasury is starting a series of bond buybacks aimed at improving liquidity and calming volatility in the longer end of the yield curve. The first operation will purchase up to $6 billion of older Treasury securities with maturities between 10 and 20 years. At least six additional buybacks are expected over the coming weeks, with each totaling at least $4 billion.</p><p>For beginner traders, the Treasury is buying older, less actively traded bonds and replacing that financing by issuing newer securities. That may provide some support for bond prices and help push yields lower.</p><p>However, this is not quantitative easing. The Fed is not printing money, and the government’s overall debt is not being reduced. The Treasury is largely replacing old debt with new debt.</p><p>The market was initially disappointed because some traders expected a larger buyback. As a result, Treasury yields moved higher following the announcement. The market is essentially saying the purchases may improve liquidity, but they are not large enough to offset concerns about inflation, government deficits and the continued supply of new debt.</p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">A U.S. Treasury auction is how the government borrows money. Investors purchase Treasury securities and receive interest in return. The results can affect yields, the U.S. dollar and stocks.</p><p>Key components:</p><ul><li>Auction size: The amount of debt being sold. </li><li>When-issued yield: The market’s expected yield just before the auction. </li><li>High yield: The yield needed to sell the entire offering. </li><li>Tail: The auction yield is above the when-issued yield, signaling weaker demand. </li><li>Stop-through: The auction yield is below the when-issued yield, signaling stronger demand. </li><li>Bid-to-cover: Total bids divided by the amount sold. Higher usually means stronger demand, but it should be compared with recent auctions. </li><li>Indirect bidders: Often foreign and large institutional buyers. </li><li>Direct bidders: Investors buying directly from the Treasury. </li><li>Primary dealers: Banks that absorb the remaining supply. A large dealer share can signal weak investor demand. </li></ul><p>A strong auction typically pushes Treasury yields lower and may support stocks. A weak auction can send yields higher and put pressure on stocks. The most important measure is whether the auction tails or stops through expectations</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>U.S. wholesale inventories increased strongly in July, while sales rebounded following June’s decline. Inventories grew faster than sales during the month, pushing the inventories-to-sales ratio modestly higher.</p><p></p><p>Wholesale inventories</p><ul><li><p>July inventories: $958.9 billion</p></li><li><p>Month over month: +1.3%&nbsp;versus 1.3% expected</p></li><li><p>Year over year: +5.7%</p></li><li><p>The monthly increase was unrevised from the advance estimate</p></li></ul><p>The 1.3% rise in inventories was relatively strong. That could indicate wholesalers are rebuilding stocks in anticipation of future demand. However, if inventories continue rising faster than sales, it could also suggest that goods are beginning to accumulate in warehouses.</p><p>Wholesale sales</p><ul><li><p>July sales: $801.3 billion</p></li><li><p>Month over month: +0.8% versus -2.9% last month</p></li><li><p>Year over year: +13.0%</p></li><li><p>June’s decline was revised to −2.9% from −3.0%</p></li></ul><p>Sales rebounded in July after falling sharply in June. That is a positive sign for business demand, although the 0.8% increase did not fully reverse the previous month’s 2.9% decline.</p><p>The annual gain remained strong at 13.0%. However, the data are not adjusted for price changes, meaning some of that increase may reflect higher prices rather than wholesalers selling a proportionately larger quantity of goods.</p><p>Inventories-to-sales ratio</p><ul><li><p>July 2026: 1.20</p></li><li><p>June 2026: 1.19</p></li><li><p>July 2025: 1.28</p></li></ul><p>The ratio estimates how many months it would take wholesalers to sell their inventories at the current sales pace. July’s reading of 1.20 means wholesalers held inventory equal to approximately 1.20 months of sales.</p><p>The ratio rose slightly from 1.19 in June because inventories increased faster than sales. Nevertheless, it remained below the 1.28 recorded one year earlier, indicating that inventories are still relatively lean compared with the overall sales pace.</p><p>What does it mean?</p><p>The July report was mixed but generally showed improving activity. Sales returned to growth, which is encouraging, but inventories rose at a faster rate.</p><p>For traders, the key will be whether rising inventories are deliberate—reflecting confidence in future demand—or involuntary because goods are not selling as quickly as expected. The strong annual sales gain and lower year-over-year inventory-to-sales ratio lean toward the more constructive interpretation for now.</p><p>Wholesale data are normally not a major market-moving release. However, inventories feed into GDP calculations, while sales offer another view of underlying business demand.</p><p></p><p>---------------------------------------</p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">For the new trader:</p><p class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">U.S. wholesale inventories and wholesale sales provide a look at what is happening between manufacturers and retailers before products reach consumers.</p><p>Wholesale sales measure the value of goods sold by wholesalers to retailers and other businesses. Rising sales generally suggest demand is improving and businesses may need to order more goods. Falling sales can indicate demand is slowing.</p><p>Wholesale inventories measure the value of goods that wholesalers still have in their warehouses. Rising inventories are not automatically good or bad. The reason they are rising is what matters:</p><ul><li> If inventories rise because wholesalers expect stronger demand, it can be a positive economic signal. </li><li> If inventories rise because sales are slowing and products are not moving, it may point toward weaker demand and future production cuts. </li><li> If inventories fall while sales rise, demand may be stronger than expected and wholesalers may need to rebuild their stock. </li></ul><p>The relationship between the two is captured by the inventories-to-sales ratio. It estimates how many months it would take wholesalers to sell their existing inventories at the current sales pace.</p><ul><li> A rising ratio can mean goods are accumulating faster than they are being sold. </li><li> A falling ratio can suggest products are moving more quickly and inventories may need to be replenished. </li></ul><p>For markets, the report is usually not a major mover by itself, but it helps economists assess economic growth. Inventory building adds to GDP, while inventory reductions can subtract from GDP. However, an inventory increase caused by unexpectedly weak sales is not necessarily a sign of a healthy economy.</p><p>For traders, the key is to examine inventories and sales together. Inventories rising alongside strong sales can be constructive. Inventories rising while sales fall may be a warning that demand is weakening.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was 4.06m (unrevised)</li><li>Existing home sales -2.0% vs -1.7% prior</li></ul><p>We're into the final gasp of the year for real estate and with rates rising at the moment, there's no help coming. It's going to end as another poor year in the housing market and I don't think there is much optimism for 2027 at the moment.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.