<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-202k-vs-212k-estimate-20260402/">US initial jobless claims 202K vs 212K estimate</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-february-trade-balance-5730-billion-vs-6100-billion-expected-20260402/">US February trade balance -57.30 billion vs -61.00 billion expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/canada-february-trade-balance-574b-vs-225b-expected-20260402/">Canada February trade balance -5.74B vs -2.25B expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-the-biggest-bridge-comes-tumbling-down-it-is-time-for-iran-to-make-a-deal-20260402/">Trump: The biggest bridge comes tumbling down. It is time for Iran to make a deal</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/iran-drafts-protocol-with-oman-for-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-20260402/">Iran drafts protocol with Oman for Strait of Hormuz traffic</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/feds-williams-monetary-policy-is-well-positioned-to-manage-risks-20260402/">Fed's Williams: Monetary policy is well-positioned to manage risks</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/baker-hughes-total-rig-count-548-versus-543-previously-20260402/">Baker Hughes total rig count 548 versus 543 previously</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/pres-trump-fires-attorney-general-pam-bondi-20260402/">Pres Trump fires Attorney General Pam Bondi</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/feds-logan-i-wasnt-convinced-inflation-was-easing-enough-even-before-the-war-started-20260402/">Fed's Logan: I wasn't convinced inflation was easing enough even before the war started</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stocks/tesla-q1-deliveries-358k-vs-372k-expected-20260402/">Tesla Q1 deliveries 358K vs 372K expected</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>WTI crude oil up $11.25 to $111.38</li><li>Gold down $84 to $4672</li><li>S&amp;P 500 up 0.1%</li><li>US 10-year yields down 1.8 bps to 4.30%</li><li>USD leads, GBP lags</li></ul><p>The key to understanding today's price action is to look further out the oil curve. There was a massive bid in front month and second month oil futures but it cooled from there and December WTI was up just 38-cents to $71.77.</p><p>After an initial rout, the stock market took solace in that and it led to buying the dip. Yes, Trump may have extended the timeline for peace but the market senses an inevitable TACO in an unpopular war. Ultimate, the S&amp;P 500 eeked out a small again after falling 100 points in the pre-market. The gains were generally broadly dispersed and may have been helped by short covering ahead of a long weekend (markets are closed Friday).</p><p>The FX market tended to side with oil as the US dollar strengthened but it wasn't a runaway bid. The fear is growing that emerging markets will soon start to face genuine shortages that lead to real economic problems. </p><p>The first hints of the turn in the market came in fixed income as bonds gained a bid. Yields ultimately finished lower and that could reflect a flight to safety or an expectation that the Fed won't have to hike rates. </p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Tomorrow is one of those rare calendar collisions: the March non-farm payrolls report is released at 8:30 am ET on Good Friday — a day when the stock market is closed.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Good Friday has been a NYSE holiday almost every year since 1864. It's the only stock market holiday that isn't also a federal holiday. The date moves around because it's tied to the lunar calendar — and this year it falls on April 3.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The BLS releases the employment situation report on the third Friday after the week containing the 12th of the month, which is usually the first Friday of the month. This time, that's also April 3.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The last time this happened was 2023, with previous occurrences in 2021, 2015, 2012, 2010, 2007, and 1999.</p><p class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold">What's open tomorrow</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The government is open. Good Friday is not a federal holiday, so the BLS will release the March employment report at 8:30 am ET on schedule. Consensus is for +60,000 jobs after February's -92,000 (see the <a href="https://investinglive.com/EconomicCalendar" target="_blank" rel="follow">economic calendar</a> for more).</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Here's the breakdown:</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Closed all day: NYSE and Nasdaq cash equities, plus most global exchanges including London, Toronto, Hong Kong, Frankfurt, and Sydney.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Open for abbreviated sessions: CME equity index futures will trade briefly with an early close around 9:15 am CT (10:15 am ET), using April 2 settlement prices. CME interest rate, FX, and crypto futures will also run abbreviated sessions with unique settlement procedures. Spot forex trades as normal, as always. Crypto markets are open 24/7, though futures will follow the CME calendar.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Bond market: SIFMA recommended a full close on Good Friday for U.S. dollar-denominated fixed income, though the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and banks will be open. FINRA/TRACE will be closed so we won't get a read on bonds.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The bottom line: any payroll surprise will channel through futures and FX, though war news is still paramount.</p><p class="text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold">A history of Good Friday surprises</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Beth Stanton had an excellent <a href="https://x.com/beth_stanton/status/2039699596301996381" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">thread on X</a> walking through the backstory. Until 1996, the bond industry association (now SIFMA) recommended a full close on Good Friday, even when it coincided with NFP.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">That was tested in April 1994 when payrolls came in at +456,000 — nearly double the 238,000 forecast. It was ugly. Futures were open and many dealers had staffed their desks anyway.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">So when it happened again in 1996, the association recommended keeping bonds open until noon. Payrolls printed +140,000 — almost three times the 49,000 consensus — and another sharp selloff followed.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">However we're now back to a situation where the bond market is closed. Will we get another surprise?</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Baker Hughes weekly rig count data shows:</p><ul><li>Total rigs 548 vs 543 last</li><li>Oil rigs 411 vs 409 last week</li><li>Nat Gas 430 vs 427 last week. </li></ul><p>The price of crude oil is trading at $110.75. That's up $10.60. The gain today is the highest since March 6. The high price reached $113.97. The high price from March 9 reached $119.48</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Trump is reported to have fired Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi. Fox news reports that he is eyeing Lee Zeldin as a replacement, but Todd Blanche is reportedly the interim AG. </p><p>Trump has reportedly been frustrated with Bondi's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, and Zeldin's name has come up most frequently in discussions of potential replacements, though no final decision has been made. </p><p>About Blanche</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Current Role: Blanche is the 40th Deputy Attorney General of the United States, a role he assumed in January 2025 to oversee the daily operations of the Department of Justice and its various agencies, including the FBI and DEA. He was additionally appointed as the Acting Librarian of Congress in May 2025, though the legality of that appointment has been disputed. </p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Background: Born on August 6, 1974, in Denver, Colorado, Blanche graduated cum laude from Brooklyn Law School in 2003. His government career began within the Department of Justice, where he served for over 15 years, including as an Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York. During his nine-year tenure as a federal prosecutor, he rose to the positions of Co-Chief of the Violent Crimes Unit and Co-Chief of the White Plains Division, where he managed high-profile investigations into public corruption, racketeering, and fraud. </p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Trump's Personal Attorney: After leaving the DOJ, Blanche worked as a criminal defense attorney, representing President Trump in three of the criminal cases brought against him in 2023 and 2024. That close relationship with Trump led directly to his current position.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">At the DOJ: Blanche recently stated at CPAC that every Justice Department or FBI employee who worked on the criminal investigations into President Trump has been fired, resigned, or taken early retirement, amounting to "over 200" people</p><p>About Zeldin:</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Lee Zeldin is a Republican politician from New York who is currently serving as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under President Trump.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Here's a quick overview:</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Background: Born in 1980, Zeldin has a background in law, becoming in 2004 the youngest attorney in New York at age 23. He also served 22 years in the military, including as a military intelligence officer and a deployment to Iraq in 2006.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Political career: He represented New York's 1st congressional district in the House of Representatives from 2015 to 2023, and before that served in the New York State Senate from 2011 to 2014. He was the Republican nominee for Governor of New York in 2022, losing to incumbent Kathy Hochul. </p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">EPA role: He has been serving as the 17th administrator of the EPA since January 29, 2025. In this role, he has overseen what he's described as "the largest act of deregulation in the history of the United States," rolling back environmental regulations including protections for wetlands and endangered species, and pushing to weaken rules on emissions and pollution. In February, he announced a repeal of the endangerment finding — the legal basis by which the government regulates greenhouse gas emissions. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Trump on Truth Social posts: </p><p>The biggest bridge in Iran comes tumbling down, never to be used again — Much more to follow! IT IS TIME FOR IRAN TO MAKE A DEAL BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE, AND THERE IS NOTHING LEFT OF WHAT STILL COULD BECOME A GREAT COUNTRY! President DONALD J. TRUMP</p><p>Earlier, Iran Pres. Pezeshkian said that Iran is not seeking to expand the scope of tension and war in the region. That came after Iran said it carried out drone attacks on US fighter jets at Al Azraq base in Jordan. </p><p>Iran also listed potential responses to US/Isreal being</p><ol><li>destruction of the enemy's scientific and technological centers in the region with a focus on Dubai</li><li>Counter-attack on scientific facilities in Israel</li></ol><p>The back and forth continues.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>A report that's getting some of the credit for the bounce in risk assets is from IRNA and says that Iran has drafted a protocol with Oman for traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.</p><p>Iran Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs confirmed the report but framed it more as housekeeping than some kind of war-ending effort. He said that even in peaceful conditions, traffic should be monitored.</p><p>"Of course, these requirements will not mean restrictions, but to facilitate and ensure safe passage and provide better services to ships that pass through this route," he said.</p><p>The report says this is a post-war draft and aimed to prevent aggression in the future. </p><p>I think if you're buying risk assets on this, that's grasping at straws and the S&amp;P 500 briefly touched positive but is now down 15 points. It's been a very volatile day already.</p><p>Update: The report says Iran will set tolls for ships passing via Hormuz. That's potentially better news.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>There is a bounce in the war trade after the market open. It's a tough one because it's a long weekend and tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report is also a tricky one (though I don't think it matters that much).</p><p>The big question is: Will Trump escalate or cut-and-run? For most of this week, the market was pricing in Trump declaring victory and walking away, leaving Europe, Asia and the Gulf states to clean up the Hormuz mess. Yesterday though, he talked about bombing Iran back to the stone age and that certainly sounds like escalation, and certainly not a basis for a ceasefire.</p><p>So oil prices shot higher but notably, they've come in a couple bucks in the past hour. Even more notable is the Treasury market, with 2-year yields now flat on the day and down 7 bps from today's peak.</p><p>So what's the thinking?</p><p>Option 1:</p><p>It's recession pricing. Yes, higher oil prices limit Fed rate cuts bu 3.80% for two years is decent yield to ride out whatever is coming. It's a brutally tough market to figure out right now and investors might simply be taking the safe way out even if much of the real gains will be wiped out by inflation.</p><p>Option 2:</p><p>The market is sensing a TACO. Trump woke up to a huge rally in oil prices today and that's not going to poll well if it continues. Trump's disapproval rating is already bad and a further rise in oil prices and a quagmire going beyond his 4-6 week timeline isn't going to help. France's Macron today said there is no easy way to open Hormuz so the path of least resistance is to simply pack up and leave.</p><p>The problem is that Trump is entirely unpredictable. In his tweets all week, he sounded ready to leave but there are marines and paratroopers building up near Iran so we could easily get into an escalation trap and it could all happen before markets reopen on Monday.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>The weekly initial and continuing claims shows:</p><ul><li>Initial jobless claims 202K vs 212K estimate. Prior week revised to 211K from 210K</li><li>4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 207.75K versus 210.75K last week.</li><li>Continuing claims 1.841M vs 1.839M estimate.</li><li>4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.839M vs 1.846M last week. </li></ul><p>The dominant theme is a "low-hire, low-fire" . The data reflects stability in the labor market amid a low-firing backdrop combined with slowing hiring.</p><p>Low claims don't mean the labor market is entirely healthy. Hiring can slow at the same time layoffs remain low, creating a market where people who have jobs keep them but people looking for work struggle to find new opportunities.</p><p>However this data is not reflective of a weakening labor market. </p><p>The stock remain lower with the NASDAQ -476 points and the downtown -645 points. </p><p>The US yields remain higher with the 10 year up 3.3 basis point at 4.354%. The 2-year is up 2 point basis points at 3.831% .</p><p>Crude oil remains elevated and trades above $110 at $110.52. The high has extended to $110.74. With oil continuing its move to the upside that will be the focus for traders. The spike price from March 9 reached $119.48.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was -3.65B (revised to -$4.18B)</li><li>Exports 66.31B vs 62.488B prior</li><li>Imports 72.05B vs 66.13B prior</li></ul><p>Canada's merchandise trade activity increased sharply, with imports rising 8.4% and exports increasing 6.4%.</p><p>There were some big swings in gold that made this report look worse than it was. Excluding unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys—a product group largely composed of unwrought gold—imports rose 5.8%, while exports were up 5.5%.</p><p>The other thing skewing this data (and yesterday's Canadian data) was auto production shutdowns that extended into January then rebounded in February. As a result, imports of motor vehicle engines and motor vehicle parts rose +7.5%.</p><p>There is going to be a big improvement in March given the jump in oil prices.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Statistics Canada publishes monthly international merchandise trade data on a balance-of-payments basis, covering goods exports and imports by product and trading partner. The United States remains by far Canada's largest trading partner, though the U.S. share of Canadian exports slipped from 75.9% in 2024 to 71.7% in 2025 as trade with non-U.S. destinations—particularly for energy and metals—expanded. Canada also publishes a combined goods-and-services trade balance, drawing on a separate monthly services trade survey.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Canada's trade position deteriorated steadily through 2025. The annual merchandise deficit widened to C$31.3 billion, the largest since 2020, up sharply from C$7.2 billion in 2024. The surplus with the United States shrank from C$101.3 billion to C$81.6 billion, while the deficit with non-U.S. countries widened to C$112.9 billion. Monthly results were volatile, swinging from a C$6.4 billion deficit in August to a near-balanced position in September before slipping back to deficits of C$2.2 billion in November and C$1.3 billion in December.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">January 2026 brought a sharp deterioration. The merchandise trade deficit widened to C$3.6 billion from C$1.3 billion in December, well above the C$0.9 billion consensus. Exports fell 4.7%, the largest monthly decline since April 2025, dragged down by a 21.2% plunge in motor vehicle and parts shipments to their lowest level since September 2021, as prolonged production stoppages for model changeovers disrupted passenger car exports. Aircraft shipments also reversed a strong December. Energy exports provided a partial offset, with natural gas up 23.7%. Imports declined a more modest 1.1%. Including services, the total trade deficit widened to C$3.8 billion. Canada's surplus with the U.S. narrowed to C$5.3 billion, while the deficit with non-U.S. partners widened to C$9 billion. The February trade report is scheduled for release today, April 2.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior -54.50 billion</li><li>Exports 314.8 billion vs 302.2 billion prior</li><li>Imports 372.1 billion vs 356.9 billion prior</li></ul><p data-path-to-node="0">The February increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $2.5 billion to $84.6 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $27.3 billion.Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $136.1 billion, or 54.8 percent, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $62.6 billion or 11.3 percent. Imports decreased $73.5 billion or 9.2 percent.</p><p data-path-to-node="0">The US International Trade in Goods and Services report, commonly known as the trade balance report, is a monthly economic indicator jointly released by the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It measures the difference between the monetary value of exports and imports.</p><p data-path-to-node="1">A positive value indicates a trade surplus, while a negative value - a consistent reality for the U.S. since 1975 - represents a trade deficit. The report is a critical component for calculating gross domestic product and provides insight into consumer demand, manufacturing health, and the US dollar’s strength in global markets.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/oil-extends-gains-risk-slumps-further-after-trump-address-20260402/">Oil extends gains, risk slumps further after Trump address</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/crude-oil-surges-back-above-100-after-trumps-speech-as-traders-price-out-optimism-20260402/">Crude oil surges back above $100 after Trump's speech as traders price out optimism</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/dollar-back-in-favour-as-trump-address-dims-market-optimism-20260402/">Dollar back in favour as Trump address dims market optimism</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/gold-erases-gains-as-trump-disappoints-the-market-downside-risks-remain-20260402/">Gold erases gains as Trump disappoints the market; Downside risks remain</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/iran-claims-to-have-targeted-us-linked-steel-and-aluminum-facilities-in-the-gulf-region-20260402/">Iran claims to have targeted US-linked steel and aluminum facilities in the Gulf region</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/opec-set-to-weigh-further-oil-production-increase-on-sunday-report-20260402/">OPEC+ set to weigh further oil production increase on Sunday - report</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/gulf-countries-reportedly-mulls-new-pipelines-to-bypass-strait-of-hormuz-20260402/">Gulf countries reportedly mulls new pipelines to bypass Strait of Hormuz</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-this-weeks-events-20260402/">How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/ecbs-simkus-too-early-to-say-what-well-need-to-do-in-april-20260402/">ECB's Simkus: Too early to say what we'll need to do in April</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/switzerland-march-cpi-03-vs-05-yy-expected-20260402/">Switzerland March CPI +0.3% vs +0.5% y/y expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-march-challenger-layoffs-60620k-vs-48307k-prior-20260402/">US March Challenger layoffs 60.620k vs 48.307k prior</a></li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">Markets:</p><ul><li>WTI crude oil up over 9% to $109.63</li><li>S&amp;P 500 futures down 1.5%</li><li>European indices down heavily across the board</li><li>USD leads the way as risk retreats</li><li>10-year Treasury yields up 4 bps to 4.36%</li><li>Gold lower by 3.3% to $4,600, Silver down 6.1% to $70.57</li><li>Bitcoin down 3% to $66,180</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">If yesterday was all about the anticipation ahead of US president Trump's address on the Iran situation, today is all about the disappointment to that. While Trump tried to pave the way to declare victory soon, he still said the US needs 2-3 more weeks to clean up operations in Iran. And that's not exactly the kind of timeline that markets want to hear at this point in time.</p><p class="text-align-justify">With the oil market as stressed as it is already, adding a couple more weeks at the very least isn't going to help alleviate the ongoing pressure. That and the fact there is still much uncertainty up in the air even if the US decides to slowly pull back from the conflict.</p><p class="text-align-justify">And the most important thing is, Iran is still not giving up control of the Strait of Hormuz. So, markets are responding in kind to the status quo being prolonged.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Oil prices ramped up higher with WTI crude now jumping up by over 9% to above $109 and poised for its highest daily close since 2022.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In turn, risk sentiment soured across broader markets. European indices are erasing the gains from yesterday with S&amp;P 500 futures also seen down by 1.5% at the lows for the day. This comes as the selling also extends to the bond market and precious metals. 10-year yields in the US are up 4 bps to 4.36% with gold down over 3% to $4,600. Meanwhile, silver is down over 6% to $70.57 on the day.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In FX, the dollar returns back in favour as market players revert back to the dash for cash. EUR/USD fell by 0.6% to 1.1515 now while AUD/USD is down 0.9% to 0.6865 on the day.</p><p class="text-align-justify">As a reminder, it is a long weekend in Europe with the Easter holidays coming up. So, that could really ramp up the de-risking mood before the day comes to an end later.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">US-based employers announced 60,602 job cuts in March, some 25% higher than what was seen in February. That being said, it is down roughly 78% from the 275,240 cuts announced during the same month last year. But as you can remember, that owed much to Trump and Elon Musk's DOGE initiative at the time.</p><p class="text-align-justify">"Removing the wave of federal layoffs announced in February and March of last year, job cut announcements in 2026 are closely following the pattern of 2025. Last year it was government, retail, and technology. This year, it’s technology, transportation, and healthcare."</p><p class="text-align-justify">The tech sector continues to be the one leading layoffs, with another 18,720 job cuts in March. The total in the sector for 2026 is already at 52,050 layoffs year-to-date. That is an increase of 40% from the 37,097 cuts in this sector announced in the same period last year. And the main reason seems to be AI-related.</p><p class="text-align-justify">"Companies are shifting budgets toward AI investments at the expense of jobs. The actual replacing of roles can be seen in Technology companies, where AI can replace coding functions. Other industries are testing the limits of this new technology, and while it can’t replace jobs completely, it is costing jobs."</p><p class="text-align-justify">As a whole, companies who cited AI as reason for cutting jobs led the rest of the pack with 15,341 layoffs announced during the month. That is almost 25% of the total cuts announced in March.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">The comments are coming from the IRGC in saying that they have targeted US-linked steel and aluminum facilities in Gulf states. Adding that these strikes are just a "warning" for now. And if Iranian facilities and industries are hit again, the IRGC vows that "the next response will be more painful".</p><p class="text-align-justify">Despite what Trump claims about the war winding down, Iran certainly doesn't agree to that rhetoric. As mentioned earlier, there is still a lot of uncertainty up in the air.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The US may pull back and gradually wind down any military operations, but what about Israel? Besides that, Iran is not likely to stop hostilities especially when US ground troops are continuing to maintain presence around the region.</p><p class="text-align-justify">But more importantly for markets, all of this just continues to fuel Iran's desire to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz. Come what may, that is the biggest thing giving Tehran any leverage in dealing with this situation.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The US may eventually transition to hanging up the "mission accomplished" banner. However, it doesn't mean anything unless it is accompanied by the reopening of the strait.</p><p class="text-align-justify">And as mentioned before, nothing changes for markets until something changes on the Strait of Hormuz. For now, it seems that the status quo will carry on for a few more weeks.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">The report says that OPEC+ is likely to weigh a further increase in oil production when the bloc convenes on Sunday. That so as to position themselves to add more barrels if and when the Strait of Hormuz reopens for business.</p><p class="text-align-justify">As a reminder, the bloc already agreed to a 206k bpd output boost for April when they met in March. That meeting was a bit of a tricky one with it having took place on 1 March, just as the US-Iran conflict broke out that very same weekend.</p><p class="text-align-justify">One of the sources is cited as saying that "we need to react, at least on paper" with another source saying that "the market requires every barrel that can be produced".</p><p class="text-align-justify">As things stand, only Saudi Arabia and the UAE has some meaningful means to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. But even then, the alternatives aren't able to significantly cover the losses from the de facto closure of the strait. From earlier: <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/gulf-countries-reportedly-mulls-new-pipelines-to-bypass-strait-of-hormuz-20260402/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Gulf countries reportedly mulls new pipelines to bypass Strait of Hormuz</a></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior +0.1%</li><li>Core CPI +0.4% y/y</li><li>Prior +0.4%</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">Even with the surge in energy prices, the impact on Swiss price pressures is less profound that what we saw with the Eurozone. Even the monthly estimate was +0.2%, missing on expectations of +0.5%. As such, the jump in headline annual inflation was also less than expected.</p><p class="text-align-justify">This reaffirms that even with energy prices surging higher, Swiss inflation dynamics is one that may not see too great of any direct impact. And when you add a counterbalance in the form of a stronger currency, that makes it very tough for the SNB to try and work things out. That especially if they cannot get markets to shake off the need of wanting to pile into the franc.</p><p class="text-align-justify">For now, core prices remain unaffected and that is well expected with the big impact being on energy prices. But given time to become more embedded into the economy, it will start to show up in other sectors too.</p><p class="text-align-justify">But again for the SNB, the case in point remains that they need to find a balance here in managing all of this amid fears that deflationary pressures will start to return more strongly in the medium-term.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">The market optimism from yesterday has been dashed after US president Trump's address <a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/trump-address-going-to-hit-iran-very-hard-over-the-next-2-3weeks-20260402/" target="_blank" rel="follow">here</a>. There was some anticipation that he would hang the "mission accomplished" banner but it wasn't really that in the end. While he reaffirmed that Iran's military capacity has taken a heavy hit, he still says that it could take at least 2-3 weeks to wrap things up.</p><p class="text-align-justify">For markets, that just means that we will get many more weeks of extended uncertainty. And more importantly, it just means that the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be prolonged. At this stage, every single day matters and another few more weeks of a supply shock to the oil market won't do anybody any good.</p><p class="text-align-justify">And even then, who is to say that the US can immediately withdraw its presence from the region? That is certainly not going to happen. And what more that even if the war were to end today, some countries might still take weeks or even months to get their energy facilities back up and running at full capacity. And then when you get all of that, who is to say Iran will allow for a straightforward resumption to normality on passage through the Strait of Hormuz?</p><p class="text-align-justify">As mentioned yesterday <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/mission-accomplished-markets-eagerly-waiting-on-us-president-trumps-address-later-20260401/" target="_blank" rel="follow">here</a>, "mission accomplished" doesn't really do anything unless it comes with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.</p><p class="text-align-justify">That is the reality for markets and the reality of the situation for the global economy.</p><p class="text-align-justify">After Trump's address, we're now seeing markets sell the fact with worries continuing to mount. Oil prices are surging up again with WTI crude up over 6% to $106.50 at the moment. Brent crude is also up nearly 7% in jumping back above $108 on the day.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Meanwhile, equities are slumping hard with S&amp;P 500 futures down 1.4% and European stock futures bordering on 2% losses ahead of the open later.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In the bond market, 10-year yields in the US are surging again as we see a 6 bps climb to 4.38%. In FX, the dollar is rallying back strongly after losses to start the week. EUR/USD is down from 1.1600 overnight to 1.1520 now while AUD/USD has dropped from 0.6940 to 0.6870 on the day.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, the only highlight is the Swiss CPI which is expected to rise to 0.5% vs 0.1% in the prior month. It goes without saying that the data isn't going to change anything for the SNB which remains in a hard neutral mode. The market is still pricing in 70% chance of a rate hike by year-end, which is not going to happen anyway.</p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, the main highlight will be the US Jobless Claims data. Initial Claims are expected at 212K vs 210K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1839K vs 1819K prior. The data till now has been pointing towards a stabilising/improving labour market. The ADP yesterday also surprised to the upside.</p><p>At the moment, the market focus is of course on the US-Iran war as that is shaping the global macroeconomic conditions. As long as we remain in this situation, good data might not have much impact because it's expected to weaken in the coming months, while bad data might exacerbate growth fears, especially labour market data. </p><p>CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS</p><ul><li>15:30 GMT/11:30 ET - ECB's Villeroy (neutral - voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p dir="ltr">We are now in the fifth week of the conflict between the United States and Iran. Although the U.S. president has repeatedly stated that victory is near and that the situation will be resolved soon, tensions remain high and could escalate further, hurting the <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DJI/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Dow Jones index</a> and <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XAGUSD/" target="_blank" rel="follow">XAGUSD</a> in the process.</p><p dir="ltr">On the one hand, U.S. airborne troops deployed in the region could be used in additional ground operations alongside the Marines and special forces, including the capture of Khark Island. On the other hand, Iran could respond through its proxies, the Yemeni Houthis, by blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.</p><p dir="ltr">This helps explain why oil prices are not falling at all, despite the International Energy Agency’s decision to release 400 million barrels of oil onto the market. </p><p dir="ltr">For oil-importing countries, the situation is clearly a nightmare. India and Europe have already warned that the conflict in the Middle East is beginning to weigh on their economic growth. What about the world’s largest oil consumer, China?</p><p dir="ltr">The year got off to a strong start for China. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, profits for Chinese industrial companies surged 15.2% year over year in the first two months of 2026, marking a sharp acceleration from the meager 0.6% growth in 2025. </p><p dir="ltr">In terms of market performance, the Hang Seng and CSI 300 indices have fallen by about 6% and 5%, respectively, since the start of the conflict, compared to a drop of approximately 9% in the Stoxx 600, suggesting that so far, China is weathering the storm better than Europe.</p><p dir="ltr">This resilience is largely due to better preparation. </p><p dir="ltr">Specifically, China has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/20/china-oil-reserves-global-energy-crisis" target="_blank" rel="follow">amassed enormous oil reserves</a> — around 1.4 billion barrels — enough to cover domestic demand for approximately three to four months if imports were to be completely cut off. In addition, government controls on fuel prices, the expansion of renewable energy, and the ongoing transition to electric vehicles help cushion the impact.</p><p dir="ltr">It also helps that, unlike Europe, China is not limiting its supplier base, including from Russia. On top of that, rising oil prices could accelerate the global adoption of electric vehicles, which would directly benefit China.</p><p dir="ltr">The problem, however, is that if the Middle East crisis persists, rising energy costs could drive inflation and slow global growth, which would inevitably hit China, given that exports — responsible for about a third of its economic growth last year — remain a key driver of its economy.</p> This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">The FT is reporting on this, citing officials and industry executives as saying that the Gulf states are looking to explore new pipelines to reduce their reliance on the Strait of Hormuz in exporting their oil and gas. That as Iran continues to cause a more vulnerable situation amid their open-ended threat and control over the strait.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The idea of using pipelines isn't new and there are already well-established ones across the region. However, the issue with them is that they are expensive and politically messy in general. That not to mention that it can take many years before completion.</p><p class="text-align-justify">But with Iran pushing many Gulf countries to their limits in this latest episode, perhaps there might be a change of tone to try and push for pipelines to be developed more quickly.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Saudi Arabia is one to be lucky enough to have the East-West pipeline in place, which is now acting as the primary alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. It is a "relief valve" of sorts but doesn't come close to compensating for the loss from not being able to pass through the strait.</p><p class="text-align-justify">For some context, the pipeline offers about 7 million barrels of oil per day. So, even at maximum capacity it is just about one-third of the volume that goes through the Strait of Hormuz.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The report cites Maisoon Kafafy, a senior adviser to the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programmes, in saying that "the mood in the Gulf has now changed". That as countries are needing to think about the long game here in not allowing for a repeat of the situation we're seeing in the past month.</p><p class="text-align-justify">All that being said, it's still a tough challenge. As mentioned above, it is politically complex and the costs of trying to build something similar to the East-West pipeline can be rather hefty - in the billions even. And at the end of the day, it is going to take many, many years to complete. So, there's that to consider.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The full report can be found <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/880664d8-e110-4760-8b00-aa3141a770ff?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">here</a> (may be gated).</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/south-korea-secures-alternative-oil-as-hormuz-disruption-hits-supplies-20260402/">South Korea secures alternative oil as Hormuz disruption hits supplies</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/aud-nzd-fall-as-oil-surge-and-ongoing-war-risks-lift-stagflation-fears-20260402/">AUD, NZD fall as oil surge and ongoing war risks lift stagflation fears</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-for-today-at-68880-vs-estimate-at-68764-20260402/">PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8880 (vs. estimate at 6.8764)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/trump-offers-no-new-iran-signals-markets-turn-cautious-after-speech-20260402/">Trump offers no new Iran signals; markets turn cautious after speech</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-spoke-without-adding-new-info-still-a-2-3-timeline-no-ground-war-announced-20260402/">Trump spoke without adding new info, still a 2-3 timeline, no ground war announced</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/trump-address-going-to-hit-iran-very-hard-over-the-next-2-3weeks-20260402/">Trump address: Going to hit Iran very hard over the next 2-3weeks</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/massive-australian-february-trade-surplus-double-estimates-at-5683bn-20260402/">Massive Australian February trade surplus, &gt;double estimates at 5.683bn</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/chatter-that-trump-will-float-the-idea-of-using-ground-troops-in-iran-in-his-address-20260401/">Chatter that Trump will float the idea of using ground troops in Iran in his address</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/hedge-funds-suffer-worst-drawdown-since-2022-as-volatility-hits-markets-20260401/">Hedge funds suffer worst drawdown since 2022 as volatility hits markets</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/tsunami-warning-issues-after-m78-earthquake-indonesia-molucca-sea-20260401/">Tsunami warning issues after M7.8 earthquake, Indonesia (Molucca Sea)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/stolen-from-iran-mass-produced-us-unleashes-corolla-drone-back-at-them-20260401/">Stolen from Iran, mass-produced — US unleashes ‘Corolla drone’ on Tehran</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/us-uses-pakistan-channel-to-reach-iran-as-ceasefire-prospects-remain-uncertain-20260401/">US uses Pakistan channel to reach Iran as ceasefire prospects remain uncertain</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-to-overhaul-steel-aluminium-tariffs-lifting-effective-import-costs-20260401/">Trump to overhaul steel, aluminium tariffs, lifting effective import costs</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/investinglive-americas-fx-news-wrap-1-apr-stocks-rise-usd-trims-losses-on-stronger-data-20260401/">investingLive Americas FX news wrap 1 Apr: Stocks rise, USD trims losses on stronger data</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/spacex-files-confidential-ipo-paperwork-eyes-record-15t-valuation-20260401/">SpaceX files confidential IPO paperwork, eyes record $1.5T+ valuation</a></li></ul><p>At a glance:</p><ul><li data-section-id="1lkowuv" data-start="113" data-end="178">Trump signals Iran war “nearing completion” but leans hawkish </li><li data-section-id="p29g99" data-start="179" data-end="240"> Repeats 2–3 week timeline, warns of further heavy strikes </li><li data-section-id="1nwmcle" data-start="241" data-end="296"> No mention of withdrawal or ground troop deployment </li><li data-section-id="x471dn" data-start="297" data-end="363"> Markets fade prior risk-on move as de-escalation signal absent </li><li data-section-id="1krzpez" data-start="364" data-end="419"> USD firmer, oil higher, equities softer, gold lower </li><li data-section-id="1dn5wpx" data-start="420" data-end="469"> US tariff overhaul adds to inflation backdrop </li><li data-section-id="izx172" data-start="470" data-end="544"> Australia trade surplus strong, but weak imports raise demand concerns</li></ul><p data-start="573" data-end="965">US President Trump told the nation that the Iran conflict is “nearing completion,” framing the operation as largely successful while reiterating a 2–3 week timeline. However, the tone leaned more hawkish than conciliatory, with Trump warning the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” if a deal is not reached, including potential strikes on electricity and possibly oil infrastructure.</p><p data-start="967" data-end="1280">While he referenced ongoing discussions with what he described as more “moderate” Iranian leadership, there was no confirmation of a ceasefire framework, no mention of a US withdrawal, and no indication of ground troop deployment. The overall message was one of continued pressure rather than clear de-escalation.</p><p data-start="1282" data-end="1630">Markets had entered the speech positioned for a softer tone following two days of risk-on price action and a pullback in oil. That signal did not materialise, and the move was largely faded. The US dollar strengthened, equities turned lower, oil prices pushed higher, and gold declined, reflecting a cautious shift back toward risk-off positioning.</p><p data-start="1632" data-end="1857">The broader geopolitical backdrop continues to centre on the Strait of Hormuz, with no new clarity on reopening timelines, leaving energy supply risks firmly in place and maintaining upward pressure on inflation expectations.</p><p data-start="1859" data-end="2145">Separately, trade policy developments added to the inflationary mix, with the US expected to overhaul steel and aluminium tariffs. While the proposed changes simplify compliance, they are likely to increase effective import costs by applying tariffs to the full value of finished goods.</p><p data-start="2147" data-end="2498">From Australia, February trade data surprised to the upside, with the surplus exceeding AUD 5bn, more than double expectations, driven in part by strong gold exports. However, imports declined month/month against expectations for an increase, pointing to potential softness in domestic demand and raising questions about underlying consumer strength.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>Remarks here, distilled from a long rambling speech. </p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/trump-address-going-to-hit-iran-very-hard-over-the-next-2-3weeks-20260402/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Trump address: Going to hit Iran very hard over the next 2-3weeks</a></li></ul><p>Market movement over the previous 2 days were hinged on an announcement of him pulling out. Not yet though. </p><p>Oil popped a little:</p><p>Gold, AUD down ... markets a risk off response, but not an extended one so far. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>Exports surged while imports fell very sharply:</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>This chatter doing the rounds:</p><p>Unconfirmed reports (Fautuks Network on twitter / X being cited) citing Fox News suggest Trump may signal the possible use of ground troops to secure Iranian uranium in an upcoming speech, a scenario analysts say would involve complex and high-risk operations.</p><p>***</p><p>Update:</p><p>Faytuks Network deletes earlier post on this. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>Tsunami threat issued: </p><ul><li>M 7.8</li><li>119 km WNW of Ternate, Indonesia </li><li>Depth 10.0 km</li></ul><p>Impacts could extend to shores of Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p> US deploys low-cost ‘Lucas’ drone inspired by Iranian design in war. Wall Street Journal report (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/iran-war-shahed-drone-65d0aced" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">gated</a>)</p><p>Summary:</p><ul data-start="123" data-end="479"><li data-section-id="15ryvrm" data-start="123" data-end="203">US deploys low-cost “Lucas” drone built from reverse-engineered Iranian tech </li><li data-section-id="1urfj6h" data-start="204" data-end="278"> Rapid development marks shift toward cheaper, scalable warfare systems </li><li data-section-id="h0bvqv" data-start="279" data-end="349"> Drones used in strikes on Iranian military and IRGC infrastructure </li><li data-section-id="1ark5xj" data-start="350" data-end="417"> Cost efficiency contrasts sharply with traditional US munitions </li><li data-section-id="awj642" data-start="418" data-end="479"> Highlights both progress and gaps in US defence readiness </li></ul><p data-start="481" data-end="706">A low-cost attack drone developed by the US military using reverse-engineered Iranian technology is emerging as a defining feature of the current conflict, underscoring a major shift in how modern warfare is being approached.</p><p data-start="708" data-end="1095">The system, known as the FLM-136 or “Lucas,” was designed in under two years and deployed early in the war, where it has been used in strikes against Iranian military targets, including weapons facilities, drone production sites and air-defence systems. Senior defence officials say the strikes contributed to a sharp decline in Iranian drone activity in the early phase of the conflict.</p><p data-start="1097" data-end="1553">Unlike traditional US defence programs, often characterised by long development cycles and high costs, Lucas reflects a new strategy focused on speed, scale and affordability. The drone, described by former officials as the “Toyota Corolla of drones,” is built to be mass-produced and expendable, with unit costs estimated between $10,000 and $55,000. That compares with legacy systems such as Tomahawk cruise missiles, which cost upwards of $2 million each.</p><p data-start="1555" data-end="1890">The origins of the program trace back to US military planning for a potential conflict with China, where simulations showed that critical munitions stockpiles could be depleted within weeks. In response, defence planners prioritised the development of low-cost, long-range strike systems capable of being produced rapidly and at scale.</p><p data-start="1892" data-end="2281">The Lucas drone was developed by reverse-engineering an Iranian Shahed drone recovered from Ukraine, marking a rare instance of the US adopting adversary technology as a blueprint. The Pentagon has retained intellectual property control, allowing it to tap a broader network of manufacturers to scale production quickly, with multiple firms expected to produce hundreds of units per month.</p><p data-start="2283" data-end="2543">While the system has proven effective in the current theatre, where Iranian air defences are relatively degraded, questions remain over its performance in more contested environments, particularly against advanced electronic warfare and GPS jamming capabilities.</p><p data-start="2545" data-end="2888">More broadly, the deployment highlights both progress and vulnerability. While the US has demonstrated it can rapidly field cost-effective systems, officials warn that gaps remain in counter-drone capabilities and in the broader supply of scalable, modern military hardware, raising questions about readiness for more complex future conflicts.</p><p data-start="2545" data-end="2888">Lucas drone was developed by reverse-engineering an Iranian Shahed drone recovered from Ukraine</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.