<p>Reserve Bank of Australia minutes feature on the event agenda,<a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/rba-february-minutes-to-detail-case-for-rate-hike-set-to-reinforce-tightening-bias-20260216/" target="_blank" rel="follow"> preview here</a>. </p><p>Otherwise it could well be a bit dreary here today. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/canada-january-housing-starts-2380k-vs-2575k-expected-20260216/">Canada January housing starts 238.0K vs 257.5K expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/canada-december-manufacturing-sales-06-vs-05-expected-20260216/">Canada December manufacturing sales +0.6% vs +0.5% expected</a></li><li>The EU and a 12-nation Indo-Pacific bloc are opening talks</li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/four-charts-that-highlight-the-worries-that-are-driving-markets-right-now-20260216/">Four charts that highlight the worries that are driving markets right now</a></li><li>The Pentagon is close to cutting ties with Anthropic and may label the AI company a supply chain risk after becoming frustrated with restrictions on how it can use the technology - BBG</li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold down $51 to $4990</li><li>WTI crude oil up 84-cents to $63.73</li><li>US bonds and stocks closed</li><li>S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.1%</li><li>AUD leads, JPY lags</li></ul><p>The US and much of Canada was on a holiday. It was also the start of the lunar new year in much of Asia so that predictably kept a lid on markets. The moves across assets were limited but there was a persistent modest bid in the US dollar.</p><p>The euro slowly slid to 1.1845 from 1.1860 before bouncing halfway back. USD/CAD also 20 pips to 1.3635.</p><p>In energy markets, the tone on the US-Iran situation was positive late last week and into the weekend but the market can't shake the feeling that something is coming, especially after a report that more F-35 jets have been dispatched to the Middle East. Crude steadily climbed to $63.75 from $62.75.</p><p>Gold was lower on the day but the damage was done in Asia and it was a sideways trade in the US. The post-Lunar New Year period is classic end to the long seasonal tailwind from Nov-Feb so keep it on your radar for the next two weeks.</p><p>US stock futures had been positive earlier but then gave it all back before finishing flat. It was tough to get excited about it with the market closed but I'm sure Tuesday will be more lively.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>It's a holiday in the US today and markets are closed but it's also a holiday in China as lunar new year celebrations back up.</p><p>The most-watched TV show in China annually is the CCTV Spring Festival gala and in the past few years, it's turned into a demostration of the cutting edge of humanoid robotics. </p><p>This year's edition is live right now and what I've seen so far is impressive. It's another leap forward from last year's edition, which went viral at the time. The martial arts showcased robots operating at at least an elite human level with swords and nunchucks and all kinds of other scenarios, including them jumping off springloaded boards.</p><p>As far as I could see it was flawless. There was even one part where a robot falls over and it looks like the performers are coming over pick him up and then the machine spins and jumps to its feet -- all part of the act.</p><p>Other acts showed humor and a variety of interactions with robots.</p><p>The performances did appear to be live but you never really know as there weren't many wide shots.</p><p>In any case, China is winning this race and it's clear where it's headed. These robots are doing pretend fighting but it won't be long before they do real fighting -- and not with swords and staffs. </p><p>The companies behind the featured robots were Unitree, Galbot, Noetix and MagicLab. Notably, Unitree is preparing for an IPO this year in what will surely be one of the biggest domestic IPOs ever.</p><p>Reuters notes that President Xi has met with five robotics startup founders this year compared to four in electric vehicles and four in semi-conductors in the same timeframe.</p><p>In terms of US markets, I just can't see how Tesla has the valuation it does. The automotive side of the company is failing as sales slump precipitously and robotaxi -- even if successful -- just isn't that big of a market.</p><p>In robotics, Optimus isn't even a working demo while China has the ability to build these machines at unprecedented scale.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was -1.2%</li><li>Sales of C$71.0 billion </li><li>Gains in 12 of 21 subsectors led by motor vehicles +12.0%</li><li>Sales down 1.1% y/y</li><li>Sales up 0.2% q/q</li><li>Inventories -1.2%</li><li>Unfilled orders +0.4%</li></ul><p>The drop in inventories is going to be a drag on Q4 GDP and the sales numbers in the quarter aren't particularly inspiring either. The Canadian economy finished the year on soft footing. The Canadian consumer was a surprising source of strength in 2026 but it will be hard to keep that momentum going through 2026 if there isn't help from manufacturing, commodity markets or housing.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Canadian manufacturing had a turbulent 2025, shaped heavily by US tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and shifting commodity prices. After a solid first quarter where sales totalled $217.9 billion (up 1.6% quarter-over-quarter), the sector hit a wall in Q2. Sales plunged 4.8% to $206.0 billion — the steepest quarterly drop since the pandemic-era decline in Q2 2020 — as tariffs on Canadian goods took a significant toll on petroleum and coal products, motor vehicles, and primary metals. April saw the sharpest monthly decline at 2.8% to $69.6 billion, with roughly half of manufacturers reporting direct tariff impacts. May dipped further to $68.7 billion, the lowest level since January 2022.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The third quarter brought a meaningful recovery. Sales rebounded 2.8% to $212.3 billion, the strongest quarterly gain since Q2 2022, capped by a 3.3% surge in September to $72.1 billion — the highest since February. Transportation equipment and petroleum and coal products led the rebound.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">That momentum stalled in Q4. October saw sales fall 1.0% to $71.5 billion as chemical products dropped 6.0%, wood products plunged 9.0% to their lowest since July 2020 (hit hard by U.S. tariffs triggering sawmill closures), and transportation equipment slipped 2.3%. Sales declined in six provinces, led by Ontario and Quebec.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">November brought a steeper 1.2% decline to $70.8 billion, with 15 of 21 subsectors posting losses. Motor vehicle sales fell 15.9% to $3.8 billion — the lowest since October 2022 — after global semiconductor shortages disrupted a major assembly plant and rippled through the parts supply chain. Motor vehicle parts dropped 6.3% and machinery fell 3.2%. Petroleum and coal products bucked the trend, rising 6.8% to $8.2 billion on higher prices and the end of a refinery maintenance shutdown. Ontario and British Columbia led provincial declines. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.72, reflecting weakening demand relative to supply. An advance estimate for December pointed to a modest 0.5% rebound, led by the food subsector and motor vehicles.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was 282.4K</li><li>Starts down 15% m/m</li><li>Non-seasonally adjusted starts -3.5% m/m</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Canada's housing construction picture in Q4 2025 told a story of fading momentum punctuated by a strong December finish. For the full year, CMHC reported total housing starts of 259,028 units across all areas, up 5.6% from 245,367 in 2024 — the fifth-highest annual total on record. Rental housing drove much of the gain, accounting for over half of all urban starts for a second consecutive year.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">In October, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) dropped sharply by 17% to 232,765 units from September's 279,174, as Ontario and British Columbia pulled back significantly. Toronto saw a 42% year-over-year decline and Vancouver fell 36%, while Montreal surged 104% on strong multi-unit activity. The six-month trend slipped 3% to 268,907 units.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">November brought a partial recovery, with the SAAR rising 9.4% to 254,058 units. However, actual starts were down 3% year-over-year at 21,870 units, and the six-month trend continued declining, falling 1.7% to 264,445. CMHC noted slowing momentum driven by weakness in Ontario, B.C., and Alberta.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">December closed the year on a high note, with the SAAR jumping 11% to 282,439 units. Actual starts surged 25% year-over-year to 20,716 units — the most for any December on record — led by Ontario posting its highest monthly total of 2025. Among the big three cities, Toronto rebounded with a 151% year-over-year increase, Montreal posted a 123% gain, and Vancouver rose 17%.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Despite the strong finish, CMHC Chief Economist Mathieu Laberge cautioned that most of 2025's momentum occurred in the spring and summer, with the six-month trend declining steadily since September. Economic uncertainty and the reduced viability of large residential towers shifted developers toward smaller-scale projects, leaving housing starts entering 2026 from a weaker position. CMHC estimates that 430,000 to 480,000 new units per year are needed to restore affordability — roughly double the current pace.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/nzdusd-stays-rangebound-ahead-of-the-rbnz-decision-traders-expect-no-change-to-the-ocr-20260216/">NZDUSD stays rangebound ahead of the RBNZ decision: traders expect no change to the OCR</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/oil-prices-in-the-spotlight-ahead-of-the-second-round-of-us-iran-nuclear-talks-in-geneva-20260216/">Oil prices in the spotlight ahead of the second round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/silvers-faltering-recovery-last-week-not-a-good-early-sign-20260216/">Silver's faltering recovery last week not a good early sign</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/its-a-big-week-for-the-british-pound-as-major-uk-economic-data-loom-20260216/">It's a big week for the British Pound as major UK economic data loom</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/eurusd-still-caught-meandering-after-post-payrolls-drop-last-week-20260216/">EUR/USD still caught meandering after post-payrolls drop last week</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/market-outlook-for-the-week-of-16th-20th-february-20260216/">Market outlook for the week of 16th-20th February</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/usdjpy-consolidates-at-a-major-trendline-as-traders-await-new-catalysts-for-direction-20260216/">USDJPY consolidates at a major trendline as traders await new catalysts for direction</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/boj-governor-ueda-says-had-regular-information-exchange-with-japan-prime-minister-takaichi-20260216/">BOJ governor Ueda says had regular information exchange with Japan prime minister Takaichi</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/swiss-economy-estimated-to-grow-by-14-overall-in-2025-20260216/">Swiss economy estimated to grow by 1.4% overall in 2025</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/what-are-the-main-events-for-today-20260216/">What are the main events for today?</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/structural-selling-in-the-dollar-more-likely-to-come-from-europe-bofa-20260216/">Structural selling in the dollar more likely to come from Europe - BofA</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/Orders/fx-option-expiries-for-16-february-10am-new-york-cut-20260216/">FX option expiries for 16 February 10am New York cut</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/dollar-rebalancing-theme-to-remain-in-focus-this-week-credit-agricole-20260216/">Dollar rebalancing theme to remain in focus this week - Credit Agricole</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/reminder-us-markets-are-closed-today-20260216/">Reminder: US markets are closed today</a></li></ul><p>It's been a very boring session amid lack of news and data releases. The US holiday isn't helping either as the price action in the markets has been mostly rangebound as traders are still digesting last week's US data. Overall, the bigger picture hasn't changed as we're seeing improvements in the US labour market without a re-acceleration in inflation.</p><p>This week, we have a pretty empty calendar in terms of major data releases but Friday is going to be a big day as we get the Flash US PMIs, the US Q4 GDP and a potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs. Until then, we might just keep on consolidating unless we get some other catalyst in the meantime.</p><p>In the US session, we have only the Canadian housing starts data which isn't going to change anything for the BoC, so the market reaction will likely be muted. </p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">This follows from the 1.2% growth in 2024 and the 1.3% growth posted in 2023. In terms of GDP per capita, the Swiss economy grew by 0.5% in 2025. And just for a bit more of a benchmark, the GDP per capita has expanded by 4.8% since 2019.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Looking at the details, the industrial sector was the main drag as it contributed negatively to GDP growth once again. This makes it the third straight year running that it has contracted. While the pharmaceutical industry grew, it could not fully offset declines in other industrial areas.</p><p class="text-align-justify">On industry weakness, the report by SECO highlights that European demand was extremely soft year. In particular, exports to Germany fell off significantly and the sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc is not helping in that regard. The currency strength is creating a "braking effect" on international competitiveness.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Meanwhile, the boost in Swiss GDP mainly stems from its services sector - which grew strongly last year, in particular finance and trade. That largely came about in the first half of the year, helping to counterbalance the ongoing weaknesses in the industrial sector.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the Eurozone industrial production data. This is rarely a market-moving report and in any case, it's not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted.</p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, we just have the Canadian housing starts data which is not going to change anything for the BoC as the central bank remains on the sidelines mainly awaiting the developments around the USMCA negotiations. As a reminder, the US is on holiday today so the US stock market and the bond market will be closed. </p><p>CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS</p><ul><li>13:25 GMT/08:25 ET - Fed's Bowman (dovish - voter)</li><li>17:30 GMT/12:30 ET - ECB's Villeroy (neutral - voter)</li><li>17:40 GMT/12:40 ET - ECB's Nagel (neutral - voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">Credit Agricole is out with a note at the end of last week saying that the dollar will remain in the crosshairs for trading this week. That as traders will have plenty to look forward to this week as well, following the key economic data trifecta last week.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The firm argues that all things considered, the dollar could find some opportunities to seek relief in this kind of environment:</p><p class="text-align-justify">"Looking ahead into next week, the ‘USD rebalancing’ theme could remain quite important and investors will scrutinise the TIC data for December looking for any indications that foreign demand for USTs and US stocks has started to taper off.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In addition, market participants will focus on core PCE deflator data for December, PMIs for February as well as the minutes from the January FOMC meeting and Fedspeak. FX investors will further keep an eye out for any headlines regarding SCOTUS’ long-anticipated verdict on the trade tariffs of the Trump administration.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In all, we continue to think that many Fed-related negatives are already in the price of the USD and would expect the currency to consolidate in the absence of data disappointments and/or dovish surprises from the Fed in the near-term. It would take evidence that international investors continued to buy US assets, however, to give the USD a more lasting reprieve."</p><p class="text-align-justify">As a reminder, there are two key risk events to watch out for outside of the usual economic calendar this week. The first being the US Treasury TIC report for December 2025, which is scheduled for 18 February.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The report continues to be a crucial one in scrutinising foreign investors' appetite for US debt. For some context, their holdings reached a record $9.36 trillion in November 2025. And that is despite a further drop in China holdings, which declined to its lowest since 2008.</p><p class="text-align-justify">That being said, it is best to reminded that this data doesn't fully measure China's holdings of US Treasuries. It instead measures China's holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. That's a very important distinction to be mindful about. Why so you might ask?</p><p class="text-align-justify">Because China could be, and almost certainly, is still buying Treasures via non-US custodians. And some of the biggest names in this context are the likes of Belgium and Luxembourg, whose holdings are going toe-to-toe with some of the major players in the world.</p><p class="text-align-justify">And the other key outside risk event this week will be the potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs. The next opinion hearing date is scheduled for 20 February, so that could introduce some end of week risk for markets to be mindful of.</p><p class="text-align-justify">More on that: <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-supreme-court-says-next-friday-will-be-a-decision-day-20260213/" target="_blank" rel="follow">US Supreme Court says next Friday will be a decision day</a></p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">That will make for a quieter start to the new week, not least with Chinese markets also out today. As a reminder, it will be a one week break for China in conjunction with the Lunar New Year holidays. So, that will sap out a chunk of liquidity in Asia trading at least for the week ahead.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Anyway, the US holiday today gives markets some added time to digest the key happenings from last week. US data took center stage with the <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-january-non-farm-payrolls-130k-vs-70k-expected-20260211/" target="_blank" rel="follow">non-farm payrolls</a> and <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-january-cpi-24-yy-vs-25-expected-20260213/" target="_blank" rel="follow">inflation</a> numbers being released on the same week. At the end of it all, traders pushed back Fed pricing slightly but I would argue it wasn't all too significant.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The most notable pricing move was that the 25 bps rate cut in June was phased out. However, the odds of a June rate cut remain highly significant at around ~81%. By year-end, traders are still pricing in ~62 bps of rate cuts by the Fed for this year.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In FX, the push and pull in the data releases is still leaving the dollar in a vulnerable spot. And the focus this week will once again be on whether markets will continue to choose to punish the dollar. That especially over the continued incoherent and uncertain approach on economic and geopolitical policies by the US administration, among other things.</p><p class="text-align-justify">To start the day so far, the dollar remains mixed but little changed overall. USD/JPY remains in focus amid intervention risks, sitting up by 0.3% to 153.10 on the day. As long as price holds below the 155 mark, we might just be steering clear of the wrath of Tokyo officials. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is flat at 1.1865 and AUD/USD up just 0.1% to 0.7082 currently.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In other markets, US futures are seen up 0.1% but again the cash market will be closed later. This comes after a bit of a rebound in Wall Street to prevent more battering of software stocks late on Friday. Here's the S&amp;P 500 performance breakdown snapshot:</p><p class="text-align-justify">So, the overall risk sentiment is keeping somewhat steady and muted to start the day. That even as the Nikkei retreats by over 1% so far in Asia trading.</p><p class="text-align-justify">As for precious metals, we're seeing gold and silver stumble once again with the former dipping back under $5,000 with the latter down nearly 3% to $75.15 currently.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/japan-bear-flips-now-bets-on-yen-strength-vs-dollar-sterling-franc-sees-8-vs-chf-20260216/">Japan bear flips &amp; now bets on yen strength vs dollar, sterling &amp; franc (sees +8% vs. CHF)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/japan-pm-and-boj-chief-ueda-will-meet-today-at-5pm-tokyo-time-20260216/">Japan PM and BOJ chief Ueda will meet today at 5pm Tokyo time</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/westpac-targets-122-for-eurusd-and-141-gbpusd-long-horizon-20260216/">Westpac targets 1.22 for EUR/USD and $1.41 GBP/USD (long horizon)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/china-deploys-national-team-investors-to-cool-ai-stock-surge-selling-intervention-20260216/">China deploys ‘national team’ investors to cool AI stock surge, selling intervention</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/japan-junior-coalition-leader-backs-food-tax-suspension-defends-boj-independence-20260216/">Japan junior coalition leader backs food tax suspension, defends BOJ independence</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/singapore-january-exports-rise-93-but-miss-expectations-uneven-trade-recovery-continues-20260216/">Singapore January exports rise 9.3% but miss expectations, uneven trade recovery continues</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/japan-q4-gdp-rises-just-02-annualised-misses-forecasts-keeps-boj-on-cautious-path-20260216/">Japan Q4 GDP rises just 0.2% annualised, misses forecasts &amp; keeps BoJ on cautious path</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/japans-economic-growth-in-q4-2025-misses-estimates-20260216/">Japan's economic growth in Q4 2025 misses estimates</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/investors-turn-optimistic-on-chinese-tech-and-housing-policies-into-lunar-new-year-20260215/">Investors turn optimistic on Chinese tech and housing policies into Lunar New Year</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/westpac-us-resilience-may-delay-final-fed-rate-cut-to-june-2026-20260215/">Westpac: US resilience may delay final Fed rate cut to June 2026</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/weekend-us-boards-second-venezuela-linked-oil-tanker-in-indian-ocean-20260215/">Weekend - US boards second Venezuela-linked oil tanker in Indian Ocean</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/imf-says-australia-achieving-soft-landing-but-warns-on-inflation-risks-fiscal-looseness-20260215/">IMF says Australia achieving soft landing but warns on inflation risks &amp; fiscal looseness</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/new-zealand-january-card-spending-mixed-messages-20260215/">New Zealand January card spending mixed messages</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/new-zealand-services-sector-expands-in-january-but-momentum-eases-20260215/">New Zealand services sector expands in January but momentum eases</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/xi-jinping-pushes-domestic-demand-as-china-braces-for-rising-global-trade-uncertainty-20260215/">Xi Jinping pushes domestic demand as China braces for rising global trade uncertainty</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/monday-open-indicative-forex-prices-16-february-2026-20260215/">Monday open indicative forex prices, 16 February 2026</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/newsquawk-week-ahead-us-pce-and-gdp-fomc-minutes-rbnz-flash-pmis-uk-and-canada-cpi-20260214/">Newsquawk Week Ahead: US PCE and GDP, FOMC Minutes, RBNZ, Flash PMIs, UK and Canada CPI</a></li></ul><p>At a glance:</p><ul><li data-start="100" data-end="181"><p data-start="102" data-end="181">Thin Asia trade as China’s Lunar New Year holiday shuts mainland markets.</p></li><li data-start="182" data-end="279"><p data-start="184" data-end="279">US markets will be closed for Presidents’ Day, with SIFMA recommending a full fixed-income close.</p></li><li data-start="280" data-end="360"><p data-start="282" data-end="360">NZ retail sales signal fragile demand ahead of this week’s RBNZ meeting.</p></li><li data-start="361" data-end="436"><p data-start="363" data-end="436">Japan Q4 GDP disappoints, rising just 0.2% annualised and 0.1% q/q.</p></li><li data-start="437" data-end="514"><p data-start="439" data-end="514">Yen softens post-GDP, with PM Takaichi set to meet BOJ Governor Ueda.</p></li></ul><p data-start="521" data-end="890">It was a subdued session across Asia on the first day of China’s Lunar New Year holiday, with mainland markets closed for the week and additional closures scheduled in Singapore and Hong Kong. Trading conditions were further thinned by the US Presidents’ Day holiday, with US equity markets shut and SIFMA recommending a full closure for US dollar fixed-income trading.</p><p data-start="892" data-end="1096">Ahead of this week’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy decision, where a hold is widely expected, data showed New Zealand retail sales remain soft, underscoring still-fragile household demand.</p><p data-start="1098" data-end="1434">From Japan, fourth-quarter GDP figures disappointed. The economy expanded just 0.2% annualised, or 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, well below expectations. Private consumption and capital expenditure posted only modest gains, while exports fell 0.3%. Inflation pressures remain firm, keeping the Bank of Japan on a cautious normalisation path.</p><p data-start="1436" data-end="1682">Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is scheduled to meet BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda later today (5pm Tokyo / 0800 GMT / 0300 US Eastern), a discussion markets will watch closely for policy signals. The yen weakened modestly following the soft GDP release.</p><p data-start="1684" data-end="1772">Elsewhere in FX, major pairs were relatively steady amid the lighter liquidity backdrop.</p><p data-start="1774" data-end="1915">Regional equities were largely consolidating recent gains, with Japan’s weaker data taking some momentum out of what had been a strong rally.</p><p data-start="1917" data-end="2030" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">In corporate news, Japanese media reported that Starbucks Korea plans to open at least 100 new outlets this year.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>Singapore exports grow solidly but miss forecasts as electronics outpace other sectors.</p><p>Summary: </p><ul><li data-start="2202" data-end="2266"><p data-start="2204" data-end="2266">January NODX rose 9.3% y/y, below expectations of 12.1%.</p></li><li data-start="2267" data-end="2343"><p data-start="2269" data-end="2343">Electronics led gains, driven by integrated circuits and disk media.</p></li><li data-start="2344" data-end="2425"><p data-start="2346" data-end="2425">Non-electronics exports declined, highlighting uneven sector performance.</p></li><li data-start="2426" data-end="2513"><p data-start="2428" data-end="2513">Exports to China, Hong Kong and EU rose, while US and Indonesia shipments fell.</p></li><li data-start="2514" data-end="2587"><p data-start="2516" data-end="2587">Forecasts recently upgraded, with 2026 NODX seen at 2%–4% growth.</p></li></ul><p data-start="166" data-end="345">Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 9.3% year-on-year in January, extending the recovery in trade flows but falling short of market expectations for a 12.1% increase.</p><p data-start="347" data-end="574">The expansion was driven primarily by electronics, with strong gains in integrated circuits and disk media products. In contrast, non-electronics exports contracted, highlighting the uneven nature of the rebound across sectors.</p><p data-start="576" data-end="1003">The latest figures come just days after<a href="https://investinglive.com/news/singapore-gdp-explodes-higher-forcing-major-upgrade-to-2026-outlook-20260210/" target="_blank" rel="follow"> authorities upgraded both growth and export forecasts for 2026</a>, following stronger-than-expected economic momentum at the end of 2025. Fourth-quarter GDP expanded 6.9% year-on-year and 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, prompting policymakers to lift the 2026 GDP growth outlook to 2%–4%, from 1%–3% previously. Enterprise Singapore also raised its full-year NODX forecast to 2%–4%, up from 0%–2%.</p><p data-start="1005" data-end="1375">January’s export performance suggests that trade momentum remains intact, though not accelerating as quickly as some had anticipated. Among key markets, shipments to China, Hong Kong and the European Union increased compared with a year earlier. However, exports to the United States and Indonesia declined, pointing to persistent pockets of softness in external demand.</p><p data-start="1377" data-end="1676">The divergence between electronics and non-electronics categories underscores Singapore’s continued reliance on the global semiconductor cycle. Demand linked to artificial intelligence investment and advanced manufacturing remains a supportive factor, but broader trade conditions appear more mixed.</p><p data-start="1678" data-end="2172">While the 9.3% growth rate represents a solid start to the year, the miss relative to expectations may temper enthusiasm following the recent upgrades to official forecasts. Even so, with policymakers projecting improved global demand conditions and continued resilience in manufacturing and trade-related services, Singapore’s export sector appears positioned for moderate expansion through 2026 — albeit with risks from external demand fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainty still in play.</p><p>ps. S<a href="https://investinglive.com/news/lunar-new-year-2026-mainland-china-markets-are-scheduled-to-be-closed-february-1623-20260212/" target="_blank" rel="follow">ingapore markets will be impacted by the Lunar New Year holidays this week. </a></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>GDP growth fell well short of estimates. </p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/economic-and-event-calendar-in-asia-monday-february-16-2026-china-markets-closed-today-20260215/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Preview is here</a></li></ul><p>I'll have more to come on this separately, details and analysis. ADDED, here: <a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/japan-q4-gdp-rises-just-02-annualised-misses-forecasts-keeps-boj-on-cautious-path-20260216/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Japan Q4 GDP rises just 0.2% annualised, misses forecasts &amp; keeps BoJ on cautious path</a></p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p data-start="152" data-end="391">New Zealand retail card spending -1.1% m/m in January, reversing December’s +0.1%. Total card spending also declined, -0.7% on the month after a 1.0% fall previously.</p><p data-start="393" data-end="561">In annual terms, electronic retail card spending edged up 0.4% y/y.</p><p data-start="393" data-end="561">Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator for the country.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>NZ services expand modestly, but confidence and hiring remain subdued.</p><p>Summary:</p><ul><li data-start="96" data-end="200"><p data-start="98" data-end="200">PSI slips but stays in expansion, easing to 50.9 from 51.5 and remaining above the 50 threshold.</p></li><li data-start="201" data-end="297"><p data-start="203" data-end="297">Growth below long-run average, with January’s reading under the historical norm of 52.8.</p></li><li data-start="298" data-end="395"><p data-start="300" data-end="395">Activity and new orders positive, signalling ongoing turnover and forward demand support.</p></li><li data-start="396" data-end="507"><p data-start="398" data-end="507">Employment and inventories weak, both in contraction, pointing to cautious hiring and stock management.</p></li><li data-start="508" data-end="623"><p data-start="510" data-end="623">Confidence still fragile, with negative commentary rising despite signs the broader economy is stabilising.</p></li></ul><p data-start="106" data-end="247">New Zealand’s services sector remained in expansion territory at the start of 2026, although momentum eased slightly from the previous month.</p><p data-start="249" data-end="639">The BNZ–BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) slipped to 50.9 in January from 51.5 in December. While still above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, the reading was 0.8 points lower on the month and below the long-run survey average of 52.8. The data suggest the sector is growing, but only modestly, and remains some distance from a robust recovery.</p><p data-start="641" data-end="1068">Within the detail, performance was mixed. Two of the five key sub-indices remained in expansion. Activity and sales led the gains at 54.2, signalling that some firms continue to see solid turnover. New orders also stayed positive at 51.8, pointing to a degree of forward demand. However, stocks/inventories fell back into contraction at 49.7, while employment weakened further to 49.1, indicating ongoing caution around hiring.</p><p data-start="1070" data-end="1487">Business sentiment remains fragile. Nearly 59% of comments received in January were negative, a noticeable increase from December and November. Respondents cited a combination of seasonal factors — including the Christmas–New Year holiday period and related shutdowns — alongside subdued enquiry levels and an extended post-holiday lull. Elevated living and operating costs were also highlighted as ongoing pressures.</p><p data-start="1489" data-end="1714">The composite Performance of Composite Index (PCI), which combines services and manufacturing indicators, eased to 52.5 from a previously reported 53.9. Despite the pullback, it continues to signal overall economic expansion.</p><p data-start="1716" data-end="1969">BNZ economists argue that the broader data flow suggests the economy may be turning a corner after a challenging period. While growth remains uneven and confidence subdued, recent indicators have been consistent with a gradual stabilisation in activity.</p><p data-start="1971" data-end="2167">The January readings reinforce the narrative of an economy moving forward, but cautiously. Expansion is present, though not yet broad-based, and labour market softness remains a key area to watch.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>Beijing pivots toward consumption-led growth as export reliance faces mounting global headwinds.</p><p>While Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke on Sunday, take note that Chinese markets are closed all this week:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/lunar-new-year-2026-mainland-china-markets-are-scheduled-to-be-closed-february-1623-20260212/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Lunar New Year 2026: Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed February 16–23</a></li></ul><p>Summary:</p><ul><li data-start="61" data-end="166"><p data-start="63" data-end="166">Xi pivots toward domestic demand, calling consumption and investment the “main driver” of growth.</p></li><li data-start="167" data-end="268"><p data-start="169" data-end="268">China bracing for global uncertainty, despite a record trade surplus amid US tariff tensions.</p></li><li data-start="269" data-end="387"><p data-start="271" data-end="387">Exports masked weak domestic momentum in 2025, with 5% GDP growth supported by strong semiconductor shipments.</p></li><li data-start="388" data-end="518"><p data-start="390" data-end="518">Policy focus on incomes and innovation, including higher pensions, livelihood-linked investment and new growth industries.</p></li><li data-start="519" data-end="649"><p data-start="521" data-end="649">Measured fiscal support ahead, with no large stimulus planned, but continued efforts to stabilise property and employment.</p></li></ul><p data-start="156" data-end="350">Chinese President Xi Jinping has underscored the need to make domestic demand the primary engine of China’s economic growth, signalling a strategic pivot as global trade uncertainty intensifies.</p><p data-start="352" data-end="837">In remarks delivered at December’s Central Economic Work Conference and published on Sunday, Xi stressed that growth must be anchored in consumption and investment at home. He called for coordinated efforts to stimulate spending and expand investment while fully utilising what he described as the advantages of China’s “super-large-scale market.” Improving household livelihoods, stabilising investment and fostering sustainable long-term growth were positioned as central priorities.</p><p data-start="839" data-end="1293">The policy blueprint reflects Beijing’s expectation of a more volatile external environment. China posted a record trade surplus last year despite the ongoing tariff conflict with the United States, but policymakers appear increasingly cautious about relying heavily on export-led expansion. Rising protectionism and pushback from trading partners over low-cost Chinese goods have heightened the urgency of rebalancing growth toward domestic consumption.</p><p data-start="1295" data-end="1577">China’s economy expanded 5% last year, with exports offsetting softer private consumption and a sharp downturn in investment, particularly in property. However, officials acknowledge that such an imbalanced model may prove difficult to sustain as geopolitical and trade risks mount.</p><p data-start="1579" data-end="2035">Xi reiterated that innovation will remain central to the country’s development strategy, pledging to accelerate the cultivation of new growth drivers and emerging industries. At the same time, measures aimed at strengthening household income — including higher wages and pensions for rural and urban residents — are intended to reinforce consumer spending power. Investment projects tied directly to public welfare are also set to receive greater emphasis.</p><p data-start="2037" data-end="2428">Additional priorities include advancing high-quality development, promoting green transformation, continuing economic opening, and addressing structural distortions. Xi urged officials to curb destructive price competition among firms — part of the so-called “anti-involution” campaign — while also stabilising the property sector and supporting employment for graduates and migrant workers.</p><p data-start="2430" data-end="2734">Although Beijing has signalled continued policy support, it is not preparing a large-scale stimulus surge. Authorities plan to maintain what they describe as a necessary fiscal deficit and steady government spending into 2026, suggesting a calibrated rather than aggressive approach to sustaining growth.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>The key market influence today is the closure of Chinese mainland markets and half days on ly in Hong Kong and Singapore (more detail below the screenshot). </p><p>The calendar lists China house price data due today. These were published last week:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/china-house-prices-continue-their-death-spiral-january-31-yy-and-04-mm-20260213/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">China house prices continue their death spiral: January -3.1% y/y and -0.4% m/m</a></li></ul><p data-start="0" data-end="396">Japanese economic growth data will be eyed. Fourth-quarter GDP is expected to have expanded by 0.4% from the previous quarter, lifting annual growth to 1.6%. Analysts see improvement coming from a recovery in construction activity as the drag from temporary safety rules eases, alongside firmer export performance supported by strong global demand for semiconductors.</p><p data-start="398" data-end="578">Trade figures for January point to ongoing momentum in chip exports. Favourable calendar effects and a low comparison base are also likely to flatter headline export growth rates.</p><p data-start="580" data-end="851">The boost from additional fiscal spending is projected to show up more clearly in the first quarter of 2026 rather than in the fourth quarter data. Meanwhile, any fallout from tensions between China and Japan is not expected to have had a meaningful impact on Q4 results.</p><p data-start="853" data-end="1004" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Overall, steady political conditions and resilient semiconductor demand are viewed as key supports for both manufacturing output and services activity.</p><p>I posted all this last week, repeating now ICYMI:</p><p>Lunar New Year (LNY) 2026 brings thin liquidity and China-offshore price discovery, with travel/consumption the key narrative.</p><p>Summary:</p><ul><li data-start="89" data-end="199"><p data-start="91" data-end="199">Lunar New Year 2026 (Year of the Horse) falls on Tuesday 17 Feb.</p></li><li data-start="200" data-end="332"><p data-start="202" data-end="332">Mainland China markets are scheduled to be closed Feb 16–23, reopening Tue Feb 24.</p></li><li data-start="333" data-end="477"><p data-start="335" data-end="477">Hong Kong has half-day trading on Mon Feb 16, is closed Feb 17–19, and reopens Fri Feb 20.</p></li><li data-start="478" data-end="603"><p data-start="480" data-end="603">Singapore (SGX) has half-day trading on Mon Feb 16 and is closed Feb 17–18.</p></li><li data-start="604" data-end="839"><p data-start="606" data-end="839">China is running an extended nine-day Spring Festival holiday (Feb 15–23) with officials expecting a record travel surge, supportive for consumption narratives, but liquidity will be thin.</p></li></ul><p data-start="877" data-end="1126">Lunar New Year 2026 lands on Tuesday 17 February and, as usual, it will reshape trading conditions across mainland China, Hong Kong and Singapore, with liquidity effects often as important as the headlines.</p><p data-start="1128" data-end="1610">Onshore, China’s equity market enters its biggest scheduled trading interruption of the year.</p><ul><li>The Shenzhen Stock Exchange calendar shows the market closed from Monday 16 February through Monday 23 February, resuming Tuesday 24 February.</li><li>The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) will be closed for the 2026 Lunar New Year (Spring Festival) from Monday, February 16, 2026, to Monday 23 Feb 2026 (inclusive) Reopens: Tuesday 24 Feb 2026</li></ul><p data-start="1128" data-end="1610">With A-shares shut, price discovery shifts offshore (CNH, H-shares, ADRs, commodities proxies), while onshore macro/credit headlines can “bottle up” and reprice quickly when domestic trading resumes.</p><p data-start="1612" data-end="2116">This year the macro overlay is the extended nine-day public holiday (Feb 15–23) and a policy push to encourage spending and travel, with officials projecting a record travel rush. That tends to support short-term themes in consumer, travel, catering, duty-free and tourism names, while also lifting scrutiny on high-frequency indicators (mobility, domestic flight bookings, hotel occupancy, box office, and retail receipts) as a real-time read on confidence.</p><p data-start="2118" data-end="2515">Hong Kong becomes the key regional venue for China beta during the A-share closure. HKEX lists half-day trading on Monday 16 February (Lunar New Year’s Eve) and full market holidays Tuesday 17 through Thursday 19 February, with normal trade resuming Friday 20 February. Expect thinner depth, wider spreads and a higher sensitivity to CN headlines.</p><p data-start="2517" data-end="2920">Singapore also sees disrupted liquidity. SGX notes half-day trading on 16 February, with the market closed 17–18 February. Regionally, the practical market impact is a short window where positioning gets lighter, volatility can be jumpy on small flows, and “reopen gaps” become a feature, especially if FX or commodities move sharply while China is closed.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-january-cpi-24-yy-vs-25-expected-20260213/">US January CPI +2.4% y/y vs +2.5% expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/feds-goolsbee-sees-encouraging-and-concerning-parts-of-the-cpi-report-20260213/">Fed's Goolsbee sees encouraging and concerning parts of the CPI report</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-supreme-court-says-next-friday-will-be-a-decision-day-20260213/">US Supreme Court says next Friday will be a decision day</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-treasury-secretary-bessent-says-that-metals-tariffs-decision-will-be-up-to-trump-20260213/">US Treasury secretary Bessent says that metals tariffs decision will be up to Trump</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/oil-prices-dip-on-report-that-opec-may-resume-oil-output-hikes-from-april-20260213/">Oil prices dip on report that OPEC+ may resume oil output hikes from April</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/the-haven-from-the-ai-disruption-might-be-a-halo-20260213/">The haven from the AI disruption might be a HALO</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/boes-pill-disinflation-is-not-as-rapid-or-convincing-as-hoped-20260213/">BoE's Pill: Disinflation is not as rapid or convincing as hoped</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Gold up $112 to $5032</li><li>WTI crude oil down 24-cents to $62.60</li><li>US 10-year yields down 5.4 bps to 4.05%</li><li>Bitcoin up $3000 to $68,815</li><li>GBP leads, AUD lags</li><li>S&amp;P 500 flat</li></ul><p>US equity futures were deeply negative ahead of the CPI report but rebounded to unchanged afterwards as the numbers mostly cooled. After the open, bids steadily picked up and the S&amp;P rose nearly 50 points at the peak. But late in the day the bears took over again and sent it into negative territory before a last minute bounce to flat. Shares of Amazon fell for the ninth straight day.</p><p>The reaction elsewhere to the data was typically dovish as the US dollar slid and bonds rallied. The strength in fixed income is increasingly noticeable as investors look for a safe haven away from the intense volatility. </p><p>The pound led the way on the hawkish comments from BOE chief economist Pill. The initial push came in Europe as cable rose a quarter cent to 1.3625 but after some selling into the London fix there was a second wave of bids late and a finish above 1.3650. Elsewhere it was more of a choppy day in FX with small moves.</p><p>Gold posted an impressive rebound following the mysterious gap down yesterday. The $150 straight-line drop has almost been completely recovered as it climbed $80 in North American trade.</p><p>Note that Monday is a holiday in Canada and the USA; enjoy the long weekend.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>The US House voted against tariffs this week and the Senate is expected to follow suit. They will surely be vetoed by President Trump but that move gives some cover to the Supreme Court ahead of its big decision on tariffs.</p><p>The court today announced that Feb 20, 24 and 25 will all be 'decision days' or days when they will render opinions. As a reminder, they don't pre-announce which cases they will be ruling on, so it could be tariffs and it could be one of the other dozens of cases before the court.</p><p>Officials have until June to make a decision but given the gravity of the tariffs, it's expected to come sooner. The decisions are rendered at 10 am ET or just afterwards so on those three days we will be standing by and markets will be holding their breath.</p><p>Previously, administration officials have signaled they could easily reconstitute tariffs but more recently, they toned down that rhetoric, highlighting that it could be difficult. That's a rare change of rhetoric and indicates the court decision could actually lower tariffs. If that's the case, it would clear the way for further Fed rate cuts and provide a double dose of good news for US companies. </p><p>The Major Questions Doctrine</p><p>Critical in the decision will be the reasoning of the court, particularly if that extends to some of the other measures the White House is considering. One of the avenues the court could go is the "major questions doctrine", something conservative justices pushed for in the Biden administration.</p><p>Under the doctrine, the Supreme Court has rejected agency claims of regulatory authority when the underlying claim of authority concerns an issue of "vast economic and political significance" and Congress has not clearly empowered the agency with authority over the issue</p><p>Challengers say this is a textbook major questions case. IEEPA shouldn't be read to give the president this power precisely because it would have such vast economic and political significance — and under the major questions doctrine, if Congress wants to give the president sweeping authority over matters of major economic and political significance, it has to say so clearly.</p><p> Justice Barrett asked a pointed question: whether the government could identify any other place in the US Code where the phrase "regulate importation" had been used to confer tariff-imposing authority. The Solicitor General struggled to answer.</p><p>When the government argued the major questions doctrine doesn't apply to foreign affairs, Justice Sotomayor shot back: "We have never applied it to foreign affairs, but this is a tariff. This is a tax."</p><p>That kind of reasoning might apply to any attempts to reconstitute tariffs if it's the reason tariffs are struck down.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>It's not a proper investing theme until there is an acronym.</p><p>I've been writing for a few weeks about old economy stocks making a comeback but it's been tough to frame exactly the kinds of companies that are best built for what's coming. </p><p>The market is frightened by disruption and that's why software stocks have seen a massive re-rating lower, with many falling 30-50% in a few weeks. There's a cottage industry developing in commentating on which software companies will actually be disrupted by AI but to me, it's tough to say in the software and tech space as the essential function of AI is intelligence and all these white collar companies are powered by brains not steel.</p><p>In contrast, money has flowed into sectors and companies that won't be disrupted by AI. I like the <a href="https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/the-most-important-investing-theme-of-2026-is-halo" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">framing </a>of HALO from Compound Advisors, which stands for Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence.</p><p>The asset part is self-explanatory and the 'low obsolescence' means that they can't be disrupted by AI. Here are a few names they highlight:</p><blockquote>Phillips 66 and Corning and Applied Materials and Vulcan Materials and Delta and Caterpillar and Ventas and Hershey may have very little to do with each other based on conventional GICS classification. But in my classification system, updated for today, they are all HALO</blockquote><p>In the past, the market liked asset light models because they required less debt and had better margins. When you layer growth onto that, it results in supercharged profitability. That's led to 30-50x multiples in a crowded space but is quickly reversing as disruption is priced in.</p><p>Asset heavy companies have been slow to grow because of huge capital requirements but since we're in a rate cutting cycle, that debt is less burdensome and that could be durable in an era of structurally high unemployment. It also means that the companies are virtually impossible to disrupt -- no one is building a new coast-to-coast railway.</p><p>In addition (and I've made this point before), venture capital for the past 15 years has been so focused on tech and software that there is no money or expertise for developing startup heavy asset firms. The VC desert is the new moat.</p><p>But that's not all. The low margin nature of these businesses has always been a drag on multiples but now I think it's an opportunity. These companies can't really be disrupted by AI but they can benefit from it.</p><p>Picture a company with a $10 billion asset base with revenues of $2 billion and 3% margins. Think utilities, pipelines, ports, commodity producers, railways, airlines and refineries. The opportunity with AI is to improve efficiency. Even boosting margins by 1 percentage point in these companies can be a huge lift to profitability and cash generation. I would particularly look at companies with high employee counts or a high reliance on consultants/sub-contractors that can be trimmed. </p><p>For these companies, AI is an optimization tool. If an airline can squeeze 2% fuel savings routing, dispatch, and operations then it's not revolutionary but it's a tailwind. If a refinery can optimize the fuel mix, monitor operations or better schedule downtime, it's meaningful.</p><p>A SaaS company running 40% margins doesn't have much fat to optimize. But a pipeline operator or airline running 2-5% margins has enormous operational surface area where small AI-driven efficiencies compound into meaningful earnings growth.That's why I prefer to focus on the low margin aspect.</p><p>I would rather call them HALM -- High Assets Low Margin -- but that's not as catchy.</p><p>I like the framing of CNBC's Mike Santoli yesterday who talked about eye-watering capex from companies like Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and OpenAI:</p><blockquote>"The hyperscalers are spending $700 billion. That better be killing something or what are we doing here?"</blockquote><p>How about this? Tangible Assets, Not Killable or TANK stocks.</p><p>Or maybe MOAT stocks: Massive Operations, Asset-Thick.</p><p>How about RAMP: Real Assets, Margin Potential.</p><p>In any case, you get the idea.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>It might be the result of a brutally cold winter so far but Canadian consumer spending dipped in January, according to the <a href="https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/canadian-analysis/featured-analysis/insights/rbc-consumer-spending-tracker/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">latest spending tracker</a> from RBC.</p><p>Using cardholder data, Canada's largest bank indicated that spending fell across discretionary goods, services and essentials in the month.</p><p>The bank downplayed the decline, noting that it came after a particularly strong December.</p><p>December had been an especially strong for goods tied to holiday shopping, and January largely retraced some of those earlier gains. The reversal points to a normalization following elevated year-end spending rather than a sudden deterioration in household demand.</p><p>Essentials spending also declined in January, extending softer tone already evident from late 2025. By contrast, discretionary services spending edged lower, but remained the most resilient of the three major groupings</p><p>The bank also cited severe winter weather noting that spending fell in Ontario on peak storm days. Another soft area was housing-related spending in light of the persistent slide in housing prices in much of the country.</p><p>RBC demonstrated the storm related dips:</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was +2.7%</li><li>m/m CPI +0.2% vs +0.3% expected </li><li>Prior m/m reading was +0.3%</li><li>Real weekly earnings +0.5% vs -0.3% prior (revised to -0.5%)</li></ul><p>Core inflation :</p><ul><li>Ex food and energy +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expected</li><li>Prior ex food and energy +2.5%</li><li>Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% exp </li><li>Prior core m/m +0.2%</li><li>Core goods +1.1%</li><li>Core services +2.9% y/y</li><li>Supercore +2.7% y/y</li></ul><p>Unrounded numbers:</p><ul><li>Core +0.281% m/m seasonally adjusted, +0.437% NSA</li></ul><p>There has been a slight dovish shift in Fed pricing following the data and we can see that in a softer US dollar as well. S&amp;P 500 futures are now flat, erasing the earlier decline.</p><p>Notably, October CPI data was not collected due to a government shutdown, and November data collection began later than usual, capturing more seasonal holiday discounting. Economists widely cautioned that these disruptions may have artificially depressed the readings. Meat prices were a standout concern, soaring 8.9% annually — the sharpest increase since 2022 — with raw ground beef up nearly 15%. While the cooler-than-expected report was welcomed by markets and supported the case for continued Fed rate cuts, analysts stressed that the December report would provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends.</p><p>On a two-month basis (September to November), the all items index rose 0.2% seasonally adjusted, with core CPI also up 0.2% over that span, implying roughly 0.1% monthly readings for both October and November. Shelter costs, typically one of the stickiest inflation components, rose just 0.2% over the two-month period, slowing sharply from a 3.6% annual pace in September to 3.0% in November. Food prices increased 2.6% annually, down from 3.1% in September, while the energy index jumped 4.2% year-over-year, driven by a 6.9% surge in electricity costs.</p><p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 2.7% on an annual basis in November 2025, a notable deceleration from the 3.0% pace recorded in September. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, increased 2.6% year-over-year — its lowest reading since March 2021.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>It's a mixed up week with non-farm payrolls already passed but CPI scheduled for today. </p><p>It's a big one as it could re-frame the debate about how many rate cuts are possible. Notably, despite the strong non-farm payrolls on Wednesday, the market isn't convinced the Fed will hold. Year-end pricing for rate cuts is up to 59 bps from 48 bps last week.</p><p>I think the shift in pricing is more-reflective of what's been happening in stock markets as AI disruption is priced in, particularly in software stocks. The market might be looking at layoffs, economic disruption and multiple contraction. The Fed has been responsive to equity declines in the past, for better or worse.</p><p>On CPI, the headline is expected to rise +0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y. Core is also seen at +0.3% and +2.5%.</p><p>We have some great previews on the report:</p><p><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/what-is-the-distribution-of-forecasts-for-the-us-cpi-20260213/" target="_blank" rel="follow">What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?</a></p><p>This one notes that there is somewhat of a skew towards a higher y/y reading in core and headline.</p><p><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-january-cpi-report-to-offer-a-cleaner-read-on-inflation-developments-20260212/" target="_blank" rel="follow">US January CPI report to offer a cleaner read on inflation developments?</a></p><p>From Justin:</p><blockquote>As always, the focus will stay on core prices when taking in the report as a whole. And if the annual estimate continues to keep in the middle range between 2% to 3%, it will be tough to see the Fed taking on a much more dovish stance than what they are sticking with currently.</blockquote><p>In another note:</p><blockquote>JPMorgan’s US Market Intelligence desk said weaker retail sales and high-frequency indicators have increased the importance of the CPI release, adding that a hawkish CPI print is more likely than a dovish outcome, but does not expect a strong market reaction to a stagflationary reading.</blockquote><p>Here is the chart:</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>US CPI preview:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/what-is-the-distribution-of-forecasts-for-the-us-cpi-20260213/">What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-january-cpi-report-to-offer-a-cleaner-read-on-inflation-developments-20260212/" target="_blank" rel="follow">US January CPI report to offer a cleaner read on inflation developments?</a></li></ul><p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stocks/us-futures-drop-lower-as-equities-look-to-end-the-week-with-a-whimper-20260213/">US futures drop lower as equities look to end the week with a whimper</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/gold-at-risk-of-another-selloff-as-traders-turn-their-focus-to-the-us-cpi-report-20260213/">Gold at risk of another selloff as traders turn their focus to the US CPI report</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/how-have-interest-rate-expectations-changed-after-this-weeks-events-20260213/">How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/oil-prices-dip-on-report-that-opec-may-resume-oil-output-hikes-from-april-20260213/">Oil prices dip on report that OPEC+ may resume oil output hikes from April</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/eu-trade-surplus-shrinks-further-in-2025-as-us-exports-tumble-while-chinese-imports-surged-20260213/">EU trade surplus shrinks further in 2025 as US exports tumble while Chinese imports surged</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/china-holds-roundtable-meeting-with-big-german-companies-in-beijing-20260213/">China holds roundtable meeting with big German companies in Beijing</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-reportedly-weighs-up-plans-to-scale-back-on-steel-and-aluminium-tariffs-20260213/">Trump reportedly weighs up plans to scale back on steel and aluminium tariffs</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-treasury-secretary-bessent-says-that-metals-tariffs-decision-will-be-up-to-trump-20260213/">US Treasury secretary Bessent says that metals tariffs decision will be up to Trump</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/ecb-policymaker-kazks-now-is-not-the-time-to-move-interest-rates-20260213/">ECB policymaker Kazāks: Now is not the time to move interest rates</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/switzerland-january-cpi-01-vs-01-yy-expected-20260213/">Switzerland January CPI +0.1% vs +0.1% y/y expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/spain-january-final-cpi-23-vs-24-yy-prelim-20260213/">Spain January final CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y prelim</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/eurozone-q4-gdp-second-estimate-03-vs-03-qq-prelim-20260213/">Eurozone Q4 GDP second estimate +0.3% vs +0.3% q/q prelim</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/china-january-m2-money-supply-90-vs-84-yy-expected-20260213/">China January M2 money supply +9.0% vs +8.4% y/y expected</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Dollar slightly firmer; USD/JPY up 0.4% to 153.30, AUD/USD down 0.5% to 0.7055</li><li>European indices slightly lower at the balance; S&amp;P 500 futures down 0.2%, Nasdaq futures down 0.2%</li><li>Precious metals recover slightly after a quick and sharp drop yesterday</li><li>Gold up 1.0% to $4,969, silver up 3.0% to $77.40</li><li>Oil down on report that OPEC+ may resume production hikes in April</li><li>WTI crude oil down 0.8% to $62.40</li><li>US 10-year yields flat at 4.105%</li><li>Bitcoin up 1.9% to $67,055</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">There were plenty of headlines to move the session along but none of which mattered all too much, as markets have their sole focus on the US CPI report coming up later today. That's the key risk event and will be the deciding US data release this week, after markets struggled for firm direction following the non-farm payrolls on Wednesday.</p><p class="text-align-justify">It will be a big one to wrap up the week, with it being a long weekend in the US as well as extended holidays in China next week.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In terms of market action, there wasn't anything that stood out in particular in European trading. The dollar kept firmer in a more solid position, with EUR/USD ranging around 1.1850-60 for the most part. Large option expiries at 1.1850 is helping to keep things in check there.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Meanwhile, USD/JPY is seen up 0.4% to 153.30 and AUD/USD is down 0.5% to 0.7055 as the dollar kept steadier throughout.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Besides that, equities were sluggish with US futures keeping a drag on overall risk sentiment. The focus stays on the AI disruption and software stocks in general. And that is weighing on the market mood on the session. European indices are down across the board with US futures also keeping lower by around 0.2% on the day.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In other markets, precious metals are up slightly after the sharp and sudden drop in US trading yesterday. It's not indicative of much with market players eyeing volatility in risk trades as well with having to focus on the reaction to the US CPI report later. Gold is up 1% on the day to $4,969 with silver up 3% to $77.40.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Late on in the session, oil was a notable mover with prices falling after a Reuters report highlighting that OPEC+ may hike production again in April. WTI crude oil dropped from $63.00 to $62.40 now as it moves to test the 200-day moving average again.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Elsewhere, Bitcoin is seen up nearly 2% to just above $67,000 but remains poised for a fourth consecutive weekly drop.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Well, it's all riding on the US CPI report next to see if there will be more drama in ending the week.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>If anything it done, it would be clarification on incidental objects</li><li>Spoke to the USTR this morning, we'll see if there's a narrowing</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">He also weighs in on the Fed chair drama involving Senator Tillis, who might want to block the nomination of Kevin Warsh i.e. Trump's pick to replace Powell.</p><ul><li>We'll see where the probe goes</li><li>Tillis wants to put a hold on any vote</li><li>Important to proceed with Senate hearings</li><li>I think we have an agreement on the hearings</li></ul><p>Meanwhile, he's also touching on trade with China a little:</p><ul><li>We do not want to decouple from China, we want to de-risk</li><li>We want to engage in fair trade</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">On the metals tariffs, it is related to the earlier headline here: <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-reportedly-weighs-up-plans-to-scale-back-on-steel-and-aluminium-tariffs-20260213/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Trump reportedly weighs up plans to scale back on steel and aluminium tariffs</a></p><p class="text-align-justify">So, that will be something to watch out for as it is more pertinent to the domestic political situation whereby Trump wants to bolster his approval ratings ahead of the midterms later in the year.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Besides that, the other comments are rather pedestrian. They aren't really offering anything much as they are things we already know from recent developments.</p><p class="text-align-justify">But I guess with regards to China trade relations, the fact that he is trying to be cordial says a lot about how the US administration is looking to keep the peace before Trump's visit to China in April. That fits with the report yesterday <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-china-trade-truce-sees-a-number-of-key-china-tech-curbs-being-shelved-report-20260212/" target="_blank" rel="follow">here</a>, which outlines the US shelving key tech curbs against China for now.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.