<p data-start="0" data-end="234" class="PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer">Crude oil futures are settling down 3.92% at $70.34, extending the recent slide in prices. During the session, crude fell below the $70.00 level for the first time since the start of the Iran war, reaching a low of $69.63.</p><p data-start="236" data-end="252">For perspective:</p><ul data-start="254" data-end="519"><li data-section-id="2ul18" data-start="254" data-end="348"> The gap low from March 2, following the weekend start of the war, came in at $69.20. </li><li data-section-id="r6mjrp" data-start="349" data-end="460"> The closing price on Friday, February 27, the last trading day before the conflict began, was $67.28. </li><li data-section-id="1dspeyv" data-start="461" data-end="519"> The closing price at the end of 2025 was $57.40. </li></ul><p data-start="521" data-end="825">At the pump, however, consumers have yet to see the full benefit of the decline in crude prices. According to AAA, the national average price for a gallon of gasoline remains at $3.92, unchanged on the day. On February 27, the day before the war began, the average price was $2.98 per gallon.</p><p data-start="827" data-end="1280" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">From a technical standpoint, crude oil closed below its 200-day moving average yesterday for the first time since late January. The 200-day moving average currently sits at $73.72. As long as prices remain below that key level, the bears remain firmly in control, keeping the technical bias tilted to the downside and opening the door for a move toward the March gap low at $69.20 and potentially the pre-war closing level at $67.28.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>High yield 4.20%</li><li>WI level at the time of the auction 4.193%</li><li>Tail 0.7 basis points versus average of 0.5 basis points</li><li>Bid to cover 2.35X versus average of 2.33X</li><li>Directs 25.5% vs average of 22.4%</li><li>Indirects 61.6% versus average of 65.3%</li><li>Dealers 12.89% Versus average of 12.3%</li></ul><p>Auction Grade: C</p><p>The tail was near the average of a 0.5% tail at 0.7%. The bid to cover was at the average. There was greater demand from domestic buyers offset by less demand from international buyers. The dealers were left with about the average. If there was a tilt from average grade of C it was toward a C-. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>SaPrior was 622K</li><li>New home sales change -7.3% vs -6.2% prior</li><li>Sales 6.8% below the May 2025 level of 622,000</li></ul><p>This is a terrible report and this series has been cratering since October. It looks like the jump in borrowing rates around the war halted new home sales in a big way. That should reverse with the war now (hopefully) over and oil prices falling. A hawkish FOMC is probably going to help the long end as well.</p><p>There is some variance in this report but the three-month average is now at the lowest since 2022 and the second-lowest in a decade. </p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The decline was concentrated in the West, which fell 26.9% on the month to 117,000 and was down 17.0% year over year. The South, the largest region by volume, slipped 4.1% to 350,000. Both other regions advanced: the Midwest rose 16.2% to 79,000, and the Northeast gained 3.0% to 34,000, the latter up 17.2% from a year earlier. On a year-to-date, not-seasonally-adjusted basis, national sales are running 7.0% below the same period in 2025.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Inventory continued to build. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale at the end of May was 496,000, up 2.3% from April and the highest in over a year, though still 1.4% below the May 2025 level. At the current sales pace, that represents 10.3 months of supply, up from 9.3 months in April and 9.7 months a year earlier, and the highest months' supply reading in the recent series. By stage of construction, completed homes accounted for 324,000 of seasonally adjusted sales, with another 192,000 under construction and 64,000 not yet started.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">On pricing, the median sales price of new homes sold in May was $424,900, up 2.0% from April and virtually unchanged from the $424,800 recorded in May 2025. The average sales price was $540,600, up 7.8% on the month and 5.0% year over year. As with prior months, movements in the median and average reflect shifts in the mix of homes sold by price tier and region as much as price changes for comparable homes; the share of sales under $300,000 held near 15%.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The release reiterated the standard caveats: figures are seasonally adjusted annual rates drawn from sample surveys with wide confidence intervals. The May monthly change of -7.3% carries a ±13.3% band, so the headline decline is not statistically distinguishable from zero at the 90% level, and the agencies note it takes four months to establish a trend. The June report is scheduled for July 24.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was -$190.7 billion</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The US current account deficit widened to $226.8 billion in Q1, a $5.8 billion or 2.6% deterioration from the revised $221.1 billion in Q4. As a share of GDP it ticked up to 2.9% from 2.8%. </p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The widening wasn't about trade. The goods deficit actually narrowed, and exports of goods and services jumped $50.0 billion to $1.38 trillion. The culprit was primary income, which flipped from a Q4 surplus into a Q1 deficit. That's the income Americans earn on foreign assets versus what foreigners earn here, and the swing tells you something about relative returns and the rising cost of servicing a balance sheet that keeps getting more lopsided.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Imports climbed $55.8 billion to $1.61 trillion, outpacing the export gain. Front-running tariffs or genuine demand? The data won't settle that argument, but the goods import surge alongside a narrower goods deficit suggests exporters had a decent quarter regardless.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The bigger number sits in the investment position. Net IIP improved to –$21.27 trillion from a revised –$21.87 trillion, but don't mistake that for deleveraging. It was driven by a $1.18 trillion price decline knocking down the value of US liabilities — foreigners' US holdings got cheaper, not fewer. Financial transactions still showed $803.7 billion flowing in. The world keeps funding America.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Worth flagging: the annual revisions were heavy. Q4's deficit was bumped from a preliminary –$190.7 billion to –$221.1 billion, and the net IIP was revised by nearly $6 trillion. Benchmark surveys and new methodology reshaped the picture meaningfully, so anyone anchored to the prior vintage needs to recalibrate.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Net-net: the headline deficit widened, but trade improved and the income drag did the damage. The structural story — a deficit reliant on persistent foreign financing — is unchanged.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-reaffirms-that-no-money-has-been-given-to-iran-yet-and-the-hormuz-will-be-toll-free-20260624/">Trump reaffirms that no money has been given to Iran yet and Hormuz will be toll-free</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/pakistan-says-us-iran-technical-talks-to-only-resume-next-week-20260624/">Pakistan says US-Iran technical talks to only resume next week</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/qatar-says-lng-production-to-resume-within-a-few-weeks-eyes-strait-of-hormuz-reopening-20260624/">Qatar says LNG production to resume within a few weeks, eyes Strait of Hormuz reopening</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/oil-prices-are-almost-back-to-pre-war-levels-amid-hormuz-normalisation-fed-hike-risks-20260624/">Oil prices are almost back to pre-war levels amid Hormuz normalisation, Fed hike risks</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stocks/us-futures-keep-steadier-so-far-today-but-the-real-test-will-come-after-the-closing-bell-20260624/">US futures keep steadier so far today but the real test will come after the closing bell</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/boj-governor-ueda-expects-further-interest-rate-hikes-as-underlying-inflation-picks-up-20260624/">BOJ governor Ueda expects further interest rate hikes as underlying inflation picks up</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/snb-policymaker-tschudin-says-medium-term-inflation-pressures-are-unchanged-20260624/">SNB policymaker Tschudin says medium-term inflation pressures are unchanged</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/rbas-hauser-we-still-have-work-to-do-to-reduce-inflation-which-remains-far-too-high-20260624/">RBA's Hauser: We still have work to do to reduce inflation which remains far too high</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/germany-june-ifo-business-climate-index-856-vs-856-expected-20260624/">Germany Ifo business sentiment rebounds further in June</a></li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">Markets:</p><ul><li>WTI crude down 2.8% to $71.11</li><li>European equities mixed</li><li>S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.3%, Nasdaq futures up 0.6%</li><li>USD leads, NZD lags on the day</li><li>US 10-year yields down 3.5 bps to 4.46%</li><li>Gold down 1.6% to $4,040</li><li>Bitcoin up 0.6% to $62,788</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">It was a steady session for the most part, with little notable headlines to really shake things up.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The US and Iran are keeping the status quo, pending further technical talks next week. In the meantime, eyes will be on the Strait of Hormuz and how vessel traffic will pick up in the days ahead. The early indications are encouraging but is still very much limited for now.</p><p class="text-align-justify">That is keeping oil prices subdued though, with WTI crude down nearly 3% to $71.11 as it moves closer to making the round trip back down.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Besides that, European stocks are more mixed today while US futures are steadier with investors eyeing Micron earnings after the close. That will be the key signal for equities and tech shares especially as we look to the second half of the week.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In other markets, the dollar continues to move from strength to strength as it pushes another advance today. EUR/USD is down 0.4% to 1.1340 and USD/JPY continues to flirt with the 2024 highs at 161.70 on the day. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is down 0.2% to 0.6898 after the sharp break below 0.7000 yesterday.</p><p class="text-align-justify">As for precious metals, gold and silver are not finding much comfort from the risk selloff this week. The former is down 1.6% to $4,040 with the latter down over 4% to $59.30 on the day.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">From his Truth Social post:</p><blockquote class="text-align-justify">"Iran has informed the U.S. that, despite troublemaking Fake News reporting to the contrary, there are “NO TOLLS, NO INSURANCE COSTS, &amp; NO OTHER CHARGES OF ANY KIND BEING SOUGHT OR RECEIVED BY IRAN ON SHIPS TRAVELING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. If this is false information, negotiations would end, immediately! Additionally, no money has been given to Iran, or released from their money to them, by the U.S. We will be releasing some of their money, that is totally controlled by us, to our Farmers and Ranchers, for the purchase of Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and more. Food is desperately needed in Iran, and we will be purchasing it for them exclusively from the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP"</blockquote><p class="text-align-justify">I think the narrative is clear that Iran is not imposing any tolls outright but passage along the Strait of Hormuz is still strictly being controlled. In that lieu, we may not say for certain whether or not they are requiring vessels to pay a "fee" of sorts in order to transit through the waterway.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The early indications suggest that we are seeing traffic pick up in the past day but again, they are nowhere near the pre-war levels and certainly not reflecting the supposed 19 million barrels of oil that Trump claimed it to be yesterday. Pfft.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Kpler data suggested just 36 vessels crossed the strait in the day before and that is a far cry from the 130-140 vessels before the war. So, go figure.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Yes, it's a marked improvement from the single-digit crossings during the peak of the conflict. But again, the tell will be by how much more will this figure pick up in the days/weeks ahead. We are now in Stage 4/5:</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Business climate index 85.6 vs 85.6 expected</li><li>Prior 84.9; revised to 85.0</li><li>Current conditions 87.0 vs 86.3 expected</li><li>Prior 86.1</li><li>Expectations 84.1 vs 85.1 expected</li><li>Prior 83.8; revised to 83.9</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">After falling to the weakest reading since October 2022 in April, German business sentiment continues with a bit more of a rebound in June after the bounce in May. That being said, the rebound here is not all too impressive with the levels seen still being the softest since early 2025.</p><p class="text-align-justify">But at least for now, it seems that the worst from the fallout to the Middle East crisis seems to be over. That at least in the short-term, as higher energy prices start to fade back into the background.</p><p class="text-align-justify">There's also further improvements in both the current conditions and expectations/outlook index. So, that continues to offer some promise for the German economy to turn things around in the second half of the year.</p><p class="text-align-justify">However, stagflation risks will continue to stay ever present and that is the real risk especially if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains as it is. The world will have to adjust to a new normal and therein lies the risks that the euro area economy could suffer further before only seeing things get better in the future.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">After the conclusion of the first round of talks in Switzerland over the weekend, technical talks between the US and Iran were supposed to continue this week. However, the latest update now is that talks will only be scheduled to take place again some time next week.</p><p class="text-align-justify">According to the Pakistan camp, who are acting as mediators to the situation:</p><p class="text-align-justify">"The technical level talks are on. The talks will resume next week, perhaps Tuesday or Monday. This is a temporary break and the talks will continue. Our delegation was there in the technical talks and will be there when they resume."</p><p class="text-align-justify">Well, I guess all we can do now is wait to see how long the status quo can hold. As a reminder, the technical talks are supposed to focus on nuclear/uranium discussions. And until we get to that, Iran has maintained that nothing will be changing in the meantime.</p><p class="text-align-justify">So, the only thing we can pay attention to now is how things will continue to play out with regards to the Strait of Hormuz reopening.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, the only highlight is the German IFO survey which is expected to show an improvement to 85.6 vs 84.9 prior on lower energy prices and the end of the US-Iran war. The data is not going to change much for the ECB, so the market reaction will likely be muted.</p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, we just get a couple of low tier releases like the US new home sales that are not going to change anything for the Fed. I think the hawkish repricing has reached a peak in the short-term and markets are just moving by inertia given the lack of other significant catalysts since the FOMC. </p><p>CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS</p><ul><li>06:30 GMT/02:30 ET - RBA's Hauser (hawkish - voter)</li><li>07:00 GMT/03:00 ET - SNB's Martin (neutral - voter)</li><li>09:00 GMT/05:00 ET - ECB's Nagel (hawkish - voter)</li><li>11:15 GMT/07:15 ET - BoC's Rogers (neutral - voter)</li><li>11:20 GMT/07:20 ET - BoE's Breeden (neutral - voter)</li><li>13.35 GMT/09:35 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)</li><li>15:00 GMT/11:00 ET - BoE's Dhingra (dovish - voter)</li><li>20:00 GMT/16:00 ET - BoJ Governor Ueda (neutral - voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">"The big Oil Companies are not dropping their price at the pump commensurate with the sharply lower prices they are paying for Oil. Those prices are dropping like a rock! In other words, customers are being “gouged.” I have instructed the DOJ to immediately start looking into this. Gasoline prices better start going down a lot faster than what I’m seeing! President DJT"</p><p class="text-align-justify">Rockets and feathers, as they would say. It's just simple logistical and supply chain issues. Once again, I just want to say that futures prices are not a good indication of physical prices. That especially during April and the early part of May when the Middle East conflict was raging on.</p><p class="text-align-justify">It's easy to say now when the premium has narrowed considerably but it takes time for companies to adjust and plan out their hedging costs, especially considering the volatility and risks involved.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">For some context, Sheikh Mohammed is also one of the lead mediators in trying to facilitate discussions on the Strait of Hormuz between the US and Iran. And he says that there are certain bad actors in the waterway, posing to be IRGC and using shipping communications to warn vessels to turn back.</p><p class="text-align-justify">As such, he says that it is vital for the US and Iran to establish a hotline to prevent these bad actors from stopping the reopening of the strait.</p><p class="text-align-justify">"The hotline’s purpose is to make sure that any ship that gets any type of threat is to be verified by Iran.. and to let the ship pass safely."</p><p class="text-align-justify">The good news for Qatar is that they are already starting to see some LNG tanker work their way through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. Of note, four major QatarEnergy-controlled LNG tankers entered the strait on Monday. So, that's a big win to try and at least get things moving - even if gradually - to begin with.</p><p class="text-align-justify">They have been dealt a blow over the weekend with the Ras Laffan facility being damaged from a "technical" issue. But Qatar's prime minister is quick to reassure that things should be able to come back up quickly, should the peace hold.</p><p class="text-align-justify">"Within a few weeks, production will come back to normal, except the damaged facility. QatarEnergy is preparing for operations to come back to normal as soon as the situation in the strait normalises."</p><p class="text-align-justify">The full article can be found <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e2d91812-1553-4d9e-a3cf-abe499de70b1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">here</a> (may be gated).</p><p class="text-align-justify">For now, it's a good start with ship tracking data estimating 36 to 40 vessels crossing the strait yesterday. However, we'll have to see how much more things will pick up in the coming days/weeks and if it will match with the numbers that both the US and Iran are claiming.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/westpac-warns-of-middle-east-second-round-cpi-effects-still-forecast-an-august-rba-hike-20260624/">Westpac warns of Middle East second-round CPI effects, still forecast an August RBA hike</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/boj-june-summary-flags-faster-hike-calls-as-markets-price-another-move-by-year-end-recap-20260624/">BOJ June summary flags faster hike calls as markets price another move by year-end. Recap.</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/australia-may-cpi-undershoots-on-headline-but-core-inflation-tops-forecasts-at-36-20260624/">Australia May CPI undershoots on headline but core inflation tops forecasts at 3.6%</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/samsung-65bn-buyback-and-new-chip-cluster-talks-spark-south-korea-equity-bounce-20260624/">Samsung $65bn buyback and new chip cluster talks spark South Korea equity bounce</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/bofa-lifts-nikkei-target-to-76000-on-ai-demand-hormuz-relief-and-rising-corporate-roe-20260624/">BofA lifts Nikkei target to 76,000 on AI demand, Hormuz relief and rising corporate ROE</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/australian-may-2026-headline-cpi-4-yy-vs-expected-43-core-36-yy-expected-35-20260624/">Australian May 2026 Headline CPI 4% y/y (vs. expected 4.3%), core 3.6% y/y (expected 3.5%)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/pboc-sets-usd-cny-mid-point-today-at-68195-vs-estimate-at-67-20260624/">PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8195 (vs. estimate at 6.7)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/anthropics-mythos-model-exposes-major-flaws-in-classified-us-systems-20260624/">Anthropic's Mythos model exposes major flaws in classified US systems</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/ubs-sees-market-pricing-of-two-fed-hikes-as-too-aggressive-get-gold-20260624/">UBS sees market pricing of two Fed hikes as too aggressive ... get gold!</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/japan-may-services-ppi-holds-at-33-as-freight-and-air-costs-surge-on-fuel-shock-20260624/">Japan May services PPI holds at 3.3% as freight and air costs surge on fuel shock</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/boj-june-summary-reveals-broad-support-for-rate-hike-alongside-sharp-deflation-warning-20260623/">BOJ June summary reveals broad support for rate hike alongside sharp deflation warning</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/td-joins-big-four-banks-flagging-australian-inflation-relief-all-roads-lead-to-rba-hold-20260623/">TD joins big four banks flagging Australian inflation relief, all roads lead to RBA hold</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/gold-faces-3800-risk-if-fed-pivots-to-hikes-deutsche-bank-warns-20260623/">Gold faces $3,800 risk if Fed pivots to hikes, Deutsche Bank warns</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/retail-investors-chase-ai-upside-as-pros-stay-cautious-and-nasdaq-longs-pile-up-20260623/">Retail investors chase AI upside as pros stay cautious and Nasdaq longs pile up</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/un-shipping-agency-begins-evacuating-hundreds-of-ships-stranded-in-gulf-via-hormuz-20260623/">UN shipping agency begins evacuating hundreds of ships stranded in Gulf via Hormuz</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/alphabet-will-replace-verizon-in-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-20260623/">Alphabet will replace Verizon in the Dow Jones Industrial Average</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/congress-delivers-historic-but-toothless-war-powers-rebuke-over-iran-conflict-20260623/">Congress delivers historic but toothless war powers rebuke over Iran conflict</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/morgan-stanley-north-haven-fund-pays-out-less-than-half-of-q2-investor-withdrawal-requests-20260623/">Morgan Stanley North Haven fund pays out less than half of Q2 investor withdrawal requests</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/investinglive-americas-fx-news-wrap-23-jun-stocks-tumble-as-usd-extends-gain-oil-lower-20260623/">investingLive Americas FX news wrap 23 Jun: Stocks tumble as USD extends gain. Oil lower.</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/private-survey-inventory-shows-a-headline-crude-oil-draw-20260623/">Private survey inventory shows a headline crude oil draw smaller than expected</a></li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Session wrap summary points:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Australia's May headline CPI slowed to 4.0%, well below the 4.3% forecast, but trimmed mean core inflation accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year, above estimates, keeping RBA August hike odds at around 36% and December at 67%</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The Australian dollar languished near 11-week lows and the kiwi sat at a seven-month trough as the mixed CPI data and broad USD strength weighed on antipodean currencies</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Gold extended losses as markets continued to price two to three Federal Reserve rate hikes over the next 12 months, with Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish signals from last week's FOMC meeting remaining the dominant narrative</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The BOJ's June Summary of Opinions showed some members calling for hikes every few months to reach neutral rate, with roughly 90% of economists now expecting another move by December and the cycle peak revised up to around 1.75%</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Samsung jumped as much as 10% in early Seoul trade on a Yonhap report of a 90 trillion won share buyback plan, with South Korea's government simultaneously flagging imminent announcements on a new AI chip cluster with Samsung and SK Hynix; gains faded as the morning progressed</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Morgan Stanley's $7 billion North Haven private credit fund said it would pay out less than half of Q2 redemption requests, capping exits at 5% as withdrawal demand hit 11.6% of shares</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Alphabet will replace Verizon in the Dow Jones Industrial Average ahead of Monday's open next week, S&amp;P Global confirmed</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">A split Australian inflation print set the tone for Asia-Pacific markets on Wednesday, with headline CPI undershooting forecasts but core measures accelerating, leaving the RBA's policy path unresolved and the Australian dollar pinned near 11-week lows. The kiwi fared no better, sitting at a seven-month trough as broad US dollar strength compounded the pressure on antipodean currencies. Westpac retained its August hike call, arguing that Middle East second-round effects are broadening across consumer prices in ways that the headline miss obscures, while markets settled on 36% odds for August and 67% for December.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">In Japan, the BOJ's June Summary of Opinions confirmed a board majority pushing toward neutral, with some members explicitly calling for hikes at intervals of a few months. Roughly 90% of economists now expect another move by December, and the projected cycle peak has been revised up to around 1.75%. The yen remains near 40-year lows despite the June hike, keeping import cost pressures alive and the hawks well-armed.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Seoul provided the session's sharpest price action. Samsung surged as much as 10% early in the day on a Yonhap report of a 90 trillion won buyback plan, amplified by government confirmation of imminent announcements on a new AI semiconductor cluster with Samsung and SK Hynix. The gains faded as the morning wore on. Gold continued to slide, with the Fed hike narrative keeping the pressure on, and Morgan Stanley's North Haven private credit fund added to the sector's mounting liquidity headlines by capping Q2 redemptions at 5% against withdrawal demand of 11.6%. Away from macro, Alphabet will join the Dow Jones Industrial Average ahead of Monday's open, replacing Verizon.</p><p>Oil inventory data ahead of official data due Wednesday morning in the US showed the SPR at its lowest level in more than 40 years. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>Australian May 2026 inflation data:</p><p>Headline 4.0% y/y</p><ul><li>expected 4.3%, prior 4.2%</li><li>-0.7% m/m (expected -0.4%, prior 0.4%</li></ul><p>Trimmed Mean core CPI 3.6% y/y</p><ul><li>expected 3.5%, prior 3.4%</li><li>0.4% m/m (expected 0.3%, prior 0.3%)</li></ul><p>The Weighted Median is the second core measure, 3.6% y/y</p><ul><li>prior 3.5%</li><li>0.4 % m/m (prior 0.2%)</li></ul><p>I'll have more to come on this separately. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p data-path-to-node="6">An official confirmed Anthropic’s Mythos model found vulnerabilities in secure US systems within hours during Project Glasswing testing. The Trump administration subsequently issued restrictions on Mythos 5 and Fable 5, forcing a global service halt.</p><p data-path-to-node="7">Summary:</p><ul data-path-to-node="8"><li><p data-path-to-node="8,0,0">Anthropic's Mythos model identified vulnerabilities in secure US government computer systems within hours during an authorized test called Project Glasswing, according to a CNBC report citing AP.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,1,0">Senator Mark Warner disclosed that the tool successfully broke into almost all classified systems, quoting NSA and US Cyber Command chief Gen. Joshua Rudd.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,2,0">The Trump administration issued a directive restricting foreign nationals from accessing the latest Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models.</p></li><li><p data-path-to-node="8,3,0">Anthropic disabled the affected models for all global customers to comply with the directive, sparking backlash from over 100 cybersecurity leaders who warn the move harms American cyber defense.</p></li></ul><p data-path-to-node="10">A profound tension has emerged between the tech sector and Washington following revelations that Anthropic's advanced artificial intelligence model exposed widespread vulnerabilities in classified US government systems. During an authorized testing exercise known as Project Glasswing, the company teamed up with US intelligence agencies to evaluate national security infrastructure. According to a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/23/anthropics-mythos-model-found-vulnerabilities-in-classified-us-government-systems-official-says.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">CNBC report citing AP</a>, the company's Mythos model successfully identified critical flaws within hours of being deployed, though officials noted this does not mean the model actively exploited them.</p><p data-path-to-node="11">The scale of the model's capabilities became public when Senator Mark Warner mentioned the exercise during a Senate committee hearing, noting that the tool broke into almost all classified systems in hours rather than weeks. This assessment was attributed directly to General Joshua Rudd, head of the National Security Agency and US Cyber Command. In response to the perceived national security risks, the Trump administration issued a strict directive restricting foreign nationals from using Anthropic’s newest models, Mythos 5 and Fable 5.</p><p data-path-to-node="12">To ensure compliance with the sudden government mandate, Anthropic completely disabled access to these models for all of its customers globally. This dramatic move has drawn sharp criticism from industry leaders at firms like Nvidia and Adobe, who argue that restricting these defensive benchmarking tools ultimately handicaps American cybersecurity against rapidly advancing foreign adversaries.</p><p data-path-to-node="13">---</p><p data-path-to-node="14">The immediate suspension of Anthropic's flagship models injects severe uncertainty into the commercial enterprise AI market, disrupting organizations relying on advanced models for automated security auditing. By forcing a total service halt to comply with foreign national restrictions, the government directive sets a volatile precedent for regulatory intervention. This friction threatens to stall private-sector AI adoption and could pivot commercial market demand toward open-source alternatives or competitors unaffected by the specific mandate.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> A services PPI print that holds at 3.3% for a second consecutive month, driven by transport cost surges of this magnitude, is precisely the kind of data the <a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/boj-june-summary-reveals-broad-support-for-rate-hike-alongside-sharp-deflation-warning-20260623/" target="_blank" rel="follow">BOJ's June summary</a> flagged as a transmission risk: business-to-business price increases in distribution and logistics that have a well-established track record of feeding through into broader consumer prices with a lag. The 61.8% surge in ocean freight and 17.3% rise in international air passenger costs are not noise; they are structural cost pressures that firms will eventually pass downstream. For JPY, the data reinforces the case for further BOJ tightening, which the June Summary of Opinions already pointed toward, and will keep rate hike expectations for the second half of 2026 well supported. For oil markets, the data provides a concrete downstream illustration of how the Hormuz disruption translated into real economy cost pressures in one of Asia's largest import-dependent economies.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">--- Japan's May Corporate Services Price Index rose 3.3% y/y, matching April's revised gain, as ocean freight costs surged 61.8% and air transport rose 17.3% on Middle East fuel shock. </p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Summary:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Japan's Corporate Services Price Index rose 3.3% year-on-year in May, matching a revised 3.3% gain in April, according to Bank of Japan data released Wednesday</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The increase was driven by a 61.8% surge in ocean freight transportation costs and a 17.3% rise in international air passenger transportation, reflecting elevated fuel costs stemming from the Middle East conflict, per the BOJ data</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The CSPI tracks prices that companies charge each other for services, making it a key leading indicator of downstream consumer price pressures and a closely watched input for BOJ policy deliberations</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The sustained elevation in services producer prices is consistent with the BOJ June Summary of Opinions, which flagged the spread of business-to-business price increases into distribution and logistics as a specific upside inflation risk</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> Japan's Corporate Services Price Index held at 3.3% year-on-year in May, Bank of Japan data showed on Wednesday, sustaining a level of services producer price inflation that will keep market expectations of further interest rate hikes firmly in place.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The CSPI, which measures the prices businesses charge one another for services rather than goods, is a closely watched leading indicator of broader inflationary pressure. Unlike consumer prices, which can be temporarily compressed by government subsidies or one-off factors, the CSPI captures cost dynamics within the business-to-business pipeline that tend to feed through into consumer prices over time. A second consecutive month at 3.3% signals that those pipeline pressures are not abating.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The drivers in May were dominated by transport costs. Ocean freight transportation prices surged 61.8% from a year earlier, while international air passenger transportation rose 17.3%, both increases tied directly to fuel cost pressures generated by the Middle East conflict and the disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Japan is one of the world's most import-dependent major economies, and the transmission from elevated energy and freight costs into the broader services price index has been both rapid and significant.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The data sits squarely within the framework the BOJ's June policy board laid out in its Summary of Opinions, released earlier on Wednesday. Board members explicitly flagged that the impact of rising crude oil prices was already spreading to midstream business-to-business prices, with distribution costs in particular identified as a channel through which underlying inflation could accelerate. The May CSPI print provides concrete confirmation of that assessment.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">For the BOJ, the reading reinforces the case made by the majority of board members at the June meeting: that the risk of price increases spreading across a wider range of items beyond petroleum-related goods is real and building. With the policy rate still below the board's estimated neutral rate of around 2%, and with services inflation holding firm rather than retreating as the ceasefire takes hold, the data adds weight to the argument for further tightening at intervals of a few months as flagged in the June summary. Markets pricing additional BOJ hikes in the second half of 2026 will find little in Wednesday's CSPI release to prompt a rethink.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The Morgan Stanley disclosure adds to a growing body of evidence that the semi-liquid private credit model is facing its most serious stress test since the asset class became a dominant source of non-bank financing. Redemption queues that carry over from one quarter to the next create a compounding dynamic: investors who cannot exit become the dominant source of the following quarter's requests, making it structurally difficult to clear the backlog without either selling assets at distressed prices or accepting an extended gate period. Broader default rates in the private credit universe, now running above 5% according to Moody's, underscore that the liquidity pressure is not purely behavioural; it reflects deteriorating asset quality in portfolios with significant exposure to AI-disrupted software borrowers. Congressional attention and Treasury engagement with insurance regulators signal that policymakers are no longer treating this as a contained structural feature and are beginning to assess contagion channels to the wider financial system.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">--- Morgan Stanley's $7bn North Haven private credit fund will pay less than half of Q2 redemption requests, capping exits at 5% as withdrawal demand hits 11.6% of shares. </p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Summary:</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Morgan Stanley's North Haven Private Income Fund, a vehicle with approximately $7 billion in assets, has invoked its 5% quarterly redemption cap and will satisfy less than half of investor exit requests for Q2, according to the fund's disclosure</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Investors sought to redeem 11.6% of shares in Q2, up from 10.9% in Q1, with the fund noting that more than half of Q2 requests came from investors who had been unable to exit fully in the prior quarter</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The fund noted that across the broader private credit market, which totals roughly $1.8 trillion, many vehicles had already restricted full redemptions in the preceding quarter</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Industry-wide data shows Q1 2026 redemption requests for non-traded vehicles averaged between 9% and 10% of net asset value, well above the standard 5% cap, according to Fitch Ratings</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Other major managers including BlackRock, Blue Owl Capital and Ares Management have faced redemption requests exceeding their contractual caps in recent quarters, per media and regulatory reports</li><li class="font-claude-response-body whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">The US Congressional Research Service has flagged contagion risk from the sector, noting that some funds rely on bank funding and that insurance companies hold around 8% of their assets in private credit</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal"> Morgan Stanley's North Haven Private Income Fund has told investors it will honour less than half of their second-quarter redemption requests, the latest and most high-profile sign that the private credit sector's liquidity architecture is under sustained pressure.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The fund, which manages approximately $7 billion in assets, enforced its contractual 5% quarterly redemption cap after investors sought to withdraw 11.6% of shares in Q2, up from 10.9% in the first quarter. Critically, the fund disclosed that more than half of those Q2 requests came from investors who had already been denied a full exit in the previous quarter, a detail that illustrates how redemption queues compound over time rather than self-correct. An investor blocked at the gate in Q1 becomes, almost automatically, a source of Q2 pressure.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">North Haven noted that the pattern was not unique to Morgan Stanley, pointing out that many funds across the roughly $1.8 trillion private credit market had already restricted full investor exits in the prior quarter. That observation understates what has been a significant industry-wide stress event. Since late 2025, redemption requests across non-traded, semi-liquid credit vehicles have risen sharply, with major platforms including BlackRock, Blue Owl Capital, and Ares Management all facing withdrawal demand that exceeded their contractual limits.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The drivers are well established. Private credit funds accumulated heavy exposure to enterprise software and software-as-a-service companies during the low-rate era of 2020 to 2023. As artificial intelligence capabilities have eroded revenue streams at those borrowers, credit quality has deteriorated. The US private credit default rate has climbed above 5% on some measures, with some analysts projecting a further rise to 8% if AI disruption in the sector continues. Loan impairments have spread from isolated cases to a sector-wide pattern, with speculative-rated software loans trading below 80 cents on the dollar in early 2026 reaching a record volume of around $25 billion.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The structural tension at the heart of the problem is the mismatch between the quarterly liquidity promised to investors and the multi-year horizon of the underlying loan books. When inflows were robust and defaults low, redemption caps remained largely theoretical. As inflows have slowed and outflows have surged, those same caps have become the mechanism through which investors discover their money is less accessible than they believed. Managers facing redemption queues must either draw on credit lines, adding leverage and diluting the position of investors who stay, or sell loans in a market where secondary liquidity is thin and discounts are steep.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Regulators and policymakers have taken notice. The US Congressional Research Service has flagged the potential for contagion to ripple outward, noting that some private credit funds rely on bank funding and that insurance companies hold around 8% of their assets in the sector. The Treasury Department has scheduled meetings with insurance regulators to assess exposure. The Morgan Stanley disclosure, coming from a fund of considerable size and institutional pedigree, is likely to keep that scrutiny elevated heading into the second half of 2026. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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Why this could be the end</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/Education/has-the-hype-around-spacex-faded-20260623/">Has the hype around SpaceX faded?</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-i-agreed-to-allow-the-hormuz-strait-to-remain-open-with-no-further-naval-blockade-20260623/">Trump: I agreed to allow the Hormuz Strait to remain OPEN, with no further Naval Blockade</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/investinglive-european-fx-news-wrap-eurozone-pmis-stabilise-uk-data-disappoints-20260623/">investingLive European FX news wrap: Eurozone PMIs stabilise, UK data disappoints</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/intervention-risks-weigh-on-momentum-as-usdjpy-approaches-the-highest-level-since-1986-20260623/">Intervention risks weigh on momentum as USD/JPY approaches the highest level since 1986</a></li></ul><p class="isSelectedEnd">The early focus was on the sharp decline in U.S. equity futures, particularly the NASDAQ, which was down as much as 800 points in premarket trading. The selling pressure eased somewhat after the 9:30 a.m. ET open, but the damage was still significant. The NASDAQ fell to an intraday low of -653.34 points and closed down -579.56 points, or -2.21%. The index never traded in positive territory, with its best level of the day still lower by 284 points. The S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 also ended the session in the red, falling -1.44% and -0.96%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed, slipping just -0.09%.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">The decline in equities helped fuel a flight-to-safety bid for the U.S. dollar. The Dollar Index rose 0.37% on the day, with the biggest gains coming against the commodity currencies. The AUDUSD fell 1.23%, while the NZDUSD declined 0.86%, making them the largest movers among the major currency pairs.</p><p>The USDJPY was the least affected, with the pair rising just 0.02% as traders remained wary of potential intervention from Japanese authorities. Yesterday, the pair nearly tested the 2024 high at 161.95, reaching 161.918, a level that represents the highest price since 1986. Although the pair is little changed today, it remains comfortably above its rising 100-hour moving average at 161.39 and its rising 200-hour moving average at 160.759. It would take a move below both of those levels to shift the short-term bias back to the downside. Until then, the buyers remain firmly in control.</p><p>The USD was higher vs all the major currencies:</p><ul><li>EUR +0.42%</li><li>GBP +0.37%</li><li>CHF +0.11%</li><li>CAD +0.38%</li><li>AUD +1.23%</li><li>NZD +0.82%</li></ul><p class="isSelectedEnd">On the economic front, the U.S. data was mixed. The S&amp;P Global PMI report came in stronger than expected, with the services index rising to 51.3 versus 51.0 expected, manufacturing climbing to 55.7 versus 54.8 expected, and the composite index improving to 52.2 from 51.7 previously. The data suggested that economic activity continues to expand, but the details were less robust, with overall growth remaining modest, employment declining for a second consecutive month, and price pressures showing further signs of cooling.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">In contrast, the Richmond Fed survey painted a softer picture of the economy. The composite index fell to +4 from +13 previously, the services index dropped to -1 from +14, manufacturing shipments slowed to +3 from +16, and employment slipped to -1 from +3. While new orders and shipments remained in positive territory, the report marked a notable loss of momentum following recent strength.</p><p class="isSelectedEnd">Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials have remained notably quiet following last week's rate decision. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has expressed a preference for less frequent public commentary from policymakers, and the lack of Fed chatter since the meeting suggests that approach is already influencing communications.</p><p>Outside the U.S., Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem spoke as the USDCAD continued its powerful uptrend. The pair has rallied from an early May low of 1.3549 to a new yearly high of 1.42165, a move of nearly 668 pips, or 4.9%, in less than two months. Macklem did not address monetary policy directly, but instead highlighted growing global financial imbalances, noting that the United States continues to attract the largest share of global capital flows. He added that the enduring appeal of the U.S. dollar may have allowed these imbalances to persist longer than they otherwise would have, a reminder of the strong underlying demand supporting the greenback.</p><p> To build a more balanced and resilient global financial system, policymakers need to create additional destinations for global savings beyond the U.S. At the same time, even as the U.S. has stepped back from free and open trade, other countries should seek to deepen their trade and investment relationships. </p><p>He also addressed concern that increased leverage among hedge funds and non-financial firms may be making the financial system more fragile and susceptible to shocks.</p><p> The remarks did not include any new signals on monetary policy or the economic outlook, but they underscored the continued strength of the U.S. dollar, with the USDCAD trading at the highest level since April 2025. The comments did not lead to any change in that trend with the price ending the day within 6 pips of the high for the day.</p><p>In the US debt market, the yield curve steepened with the 2 year down -2.7 basis points to 4.202%, the 10 year down -0.6 basis points at 4.500%, but the 30 year up 0.4 basis points. </p><p>Crude oil settled below the 200 day MA at $73.68 for the first time since the end of January. The price is trading at $73.23.</p><p>Gold fell -$80 to $4109. Support is at $4000 to $4006. Silver fell -$3.51 or -$5.39% to $61.53. The low took out the low from June 11 and trades at the lowest level since March. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>I posted a preview of the Australian inflation data yesterday:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/australia-may-cpi-preview-fuel-drag-to-mask-sticky-underlying-inflation-20260623/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Australia May CPI preview: fuel drag to mask sticky underlying inflation</a></li></ul><p>I mentioned in that post (the screenshot of the AUD) that the Australian dollar still appeared heavy and any pop would likely be sold into. Well, we didn't have to wait, its 60 points lower as I update now. </p><p>The BoJ 'Summary' is up also (see below for what this is). It's the June meeting, where we got another rate hike:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/boj-hikes-to-1-pauses-bond-taper-from-april-2027-and-flags-inflation-overshoot-risk-20260616/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">BOJ hikes to 1%, pauses bond taper from April 2027 and flags inflation overshoot risk</a></li></ul><p>The presser was conducted by Deputy Governor Uchida in Ueda's absence:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/boj-deputy-governor-uchida-says-will-continue-to-raise-policy-rate-if-conditions-align-20260616/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">BOJ deputy governor Uchida says will continue to raise policy rate if conditions align</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/boj-deputy-governor-uchida-says-that-ueda-absence-not-a-big-impact-on-decision-today-20260616/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">BOJ deputy governor Uchida says that Ueda absence not a big impact on decision today</a></li></ul><p>Yen has remained weak since the rate hike. </p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">BOJ Summary of Opinions vs. Minutes: what's the difference</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The Bank of Japan publishes two separate accounts of each monetary policy meeting, and they serve very different purposes.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The Summary of Opinions is the fast release. It comes out roughly one to two weeks after the meeting concludes and captures the range of individual views expressed by board members during the deliberations, presented as anonymised, attributed-to-no-one quotes or paraphrased positions. Think of it as the highlights reel: you get a sense of where the nine-member board's thinking clustered, where there was dissent or hesitation, and what conditions members were watching. It does not reveal who said what, and it is deliberately compressed. For markets, it is the first official window into the texture of internal debate, which is why it tends to move JPY and JGB yields on release.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The Minutes are the deep read. They land roughly eight weeks after the meeting, well after the following meeting has already taken place. They provide a much fuller narrative of the discussion: the economic assessments the board considered, the arguments made for and against policy options, and the reasoning behind the final vote. Attribution remains collective rather than individual, but the level of procedural and analytical detail is substantially greater.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">In practical terms: traders and journalists lean on the Summary of Opinions for near-term signals because the Minutes arrive too late to be actionable for that meeting cycle. The Minutes matter more for understanding the board's evolving analytical framework and for building a picture of how thinking shifted between meetings.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>The U.S. Treasury sold $69 billion of two-year notes at a high yield of</p><ul><li>WI level at the time of the auction 4.192%</li><li>Tail -0.3 basis points versus six auction average of 0.1 basis points</li><li>Bid to cover ratio 2.64Xversus average of 2.61X</li><li>Directs 34.3% versus average of 29.1%</li><li>Indirects 55.5% versus average of 57.8%</li><li>Dealers 10.2% vs average of 13.0%</li></ul><p>AUCTION GRADE: B+</p><p>The two year is typically a well received auction with lots of demand. Today's auction was certainly better-than-average thanks to strong demand from domestic US buyers. </p><p>Today's auction came in the tail of -0.3 basis points. The bid to cover was near the average that the domestic demand was strong and 34.3% will have a six month average while the international demand was just below the norm. Because of domestic demand, the dealers were left with less than the average.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<p>Sec of State Marco Rubio is saying:</p><ul><li data-section-id="1byx2cn" data-start="0" data-end="93">We're going to deal directly with the Lebanese government. </li><li data-section-id="plxtpi" data-start="94" data-end="187"> You can't end hostilities in the region if Iranian proxies are launching missiles. </li><li data-section-id="18p3iyi" data-start="188" data-end="261"> It's an issue that will be brought up at the appropriate time. </li><li data-section-id="1bu9ofv" data-start="262" data-end="383" data-is-last-node=""> No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway. That's existing international law.</li></ul><p>The Iran/US war became the Iran/US/Israel war from the start. That morphed into the Iran/US/Israel/Lebanon war as it progressed. Still a ways to go to full peace but the 60 day period is ticking.</p><p>Meanwhile the Iranian president said that he held constructive talks with Pakistani officials and that he wants to open a new chapter between Iran and Pakistan: </p><ul><li>Says that he believe that the progress of the West Asia region depends on peace, security, and regional cooperation </li><li>Peace can only be reached through honest discussions and intraregional cooperation</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>US Richmond Fed services index -1 vs +14 prior</li><li>Manufacturing shipments +3 vs +16 prior</li><li>Services index -1 vs +14 prior</li><li>Number of employees -1 vs +3 prior</li><li>both shipments and new orders remained in positive territory</li><li>The average growth rate of prices paid increased notably while growth in prices received increased somewhat in June</li></ul><p>This is a setback after some recent positive momentum.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li class="listItem-bmN0_SHH listItem--lightning-bmN0_SHH"><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-may-flash-services-pmi-509-vs-511-expected-20260521/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Prior </a>51.0</li><li class="listItem-bmN0_SHH listItem--lightning-bmN0_SHH">Manufacturing PMI 55.7 vs 54.8 expected</li><li class="listItem-bmN0_SHH listItem--lightning-bmN0_SHH">Prior 55.3</li><li class="listItem-bmN0_SHH listItem--lightning-bmN0_SHH">Composite PMI 52.2 vs 51.7 prior</li><li class="listItem-bmN0_SHH listItem--lightning-bmN0_SHH">Employment fell for a second month running </li><li class="listItem-bmN0_SHH listItem--lightning-bmN0_SHH">Companies’ expectations for output in the year ahead improved in June to the brightest since February</li></ul><p>That's a 49-month high for manufacturing but on the composite side, overall growth is still sluggish and the report says companies cut back on staffing. Good news was on prices which showed signs of cooling from sizzling-hot levels.</p><p>Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence said there was sluggish service sector growth contrasting with an increasingly solid manufacturing expansion.</p><p>“Brighter news out of the Middle East has helped restore some confidence among US businesses in June, though the overall rate of economic growth signalled by the flash PMI survey remains relatively sluggish compared to that seen earlier in the year in the lead up to the conflict. The survey signals that current output levels are consistent with the economy struggling to grow much faster than a 1% annualized rate in the second quarter. “The service sector continues to grow at an especially subdued pace, reflecting push-back from customers over high prices amid low levels of consumer confidence in particular. While there is better news from the manufacturing sector, we remain concerned as factory growth continues to be temporarily buoyed by inventory building amid supply fears. Supply delays grew more widespread in June. “Most worrying was the further fall in employment, notably in the manufacturing sector. Factory job cuts are running at the highest since 2009 if the pandemic is excluded, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of the recent upturn in demand alongside worries over the escalating cost of raw materials. However, while still running at one of the highest rates seen over the past four years, input cost inflation has shown sign of cooling in June thanks in part to the lower energy prices seen at the tail end of the survey data collection period.”</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">For background, the S&amp;P Global US PMIs are monthly surveys of senior purchasing and operating executives at private-sector companies, run separately for manufacturing and services and combined into a headline composite. They are produced by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, the operation that absorbed IHS Markit, and are modeled on the same diffusion-index methodology used across its global PMI franchise covering more than 40 economies.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The "flash" releases are preliminary estimates published roughly a week before month-end, based on about 75% to 85% of the total monthly survey responses. Final readings follow at the start of the next month once the remaining replies are collected. The flash is among the earliest cyclical reads on a given month, which is the main reason markets watch it.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">Each index is built from panel responses comparing current conditions to the prior month, scored on a 0-to-100 scale where 50 marks the line between expansion and contraction. The manufacturing PMI is a weighted composite of five subindices: new orders, output, employment, suppliers' delivery times, and stocks of purchases. The services PMI headline is the business activity index. Both surveys also publish detail on new orders, employment, input and output prices, backlogs of work, and twelve-month output expectations.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">The manufacturing panel covers around 800 companies; the services panel is larger. Responses are weighted by company size and sector contribution to GDP. The composite output index blends manufacturing output and services activity, weighted by each sector's share of value added.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal">In the US specifically, the S&amp;P Global manufacturing gauge competes for attention with the older, more widely cited ISM manufacturing index, and the two can diverge meaningfully because of differences in panel composition, sector weighting, and seasonal adjustment. The services figures likewise sit alongside the ISM services report. Data are seasonally adjusted, and a sister price index feeds inflation watchers.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Trump on Truth Social:</p><p>"Despite their protestations and false statements to the contrary, coupled with the drumbeat of the Fake News, which is doing everything possible to make the U.S. Victory as small and insignificant as possible, Iran has fully and completely agreed to highest level Nuclear inspections long into the future (Infinity!!!). This will insure “Nuclear Honesty.” If they did not agree to this, there would be no further negotiations! Based on this and other major concessions being made by Iran, I have agreed to allow the Hormuz Strait to remain OPEN, with no further Naval Blockade. However, all ships are remaining in place should it be necessary to reinstitute the Blockade, which seems, at this point, highly unlikely. The Money and/or Sanctions that the U.S. Treasury is releasing goes into escrow, controlled by the U.S.A., and will be used for the purchase of food and medical supplies, exclusively from the United States, including Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans from our great American Farmers. These are things that are desperately needed by Iran. This is a humanitarian crisis, and I feel it is necessary to help, NOW, before it is too late. Talks are going well! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"</p><p>From the Iranian side, a military source told Fars News Agency that only a certain number of vessels per day are allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz and this amount is to vary daily according to conditions. </p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/intervention-risks-weigh-on-momentum-as-usdjpy-approaches-the-highest-level-since-1986-20260623/">Intervention risks weigh on momentum as USD/JPY approaches the highest level since 1986</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/Cryptocurrency/bitcoin-turns-more-bearish-with-chip-stock-nose-diving-20260623/">Bitcoin turns more bearish with chip stocks nose diving</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/ecb-policymaker-lane-sees-signals-pointing-to-price-pressures-in-the-coming-months-20260623/">ECB policymaker Lane sees signals pointing to price pressures in the coming months</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/uk-june-flash-services-pmi-487-vs-501-expected-20260623/">UK June flash services PMI 48.7 vs 50.1 expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/eurozone-june-flash-services-pmi-489-vs-486-expected-20260623/">Eurozone business activity sees a slower downturn in June as price pressures cool slightly</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/iran-says-it-has-no-plans-to-let-iaea-inspectors-to-visit-nuclear-sites-20260623/">Iran says it has no plans to let IAEA inspectors to visit nuclear sites</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/germany-june-flash-manufacturing-pmi-500-vs-504-expected-20260623/">Germany June flash manufacturing PMI 50.0 vs 50.4 expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/france-june-flash-services-pmi-474-vs-460-expected-20260623/">French business downturn eases slightly in June, price pressures remain elevated</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/france-june-business-confidence-94-vs-95-expected-20260623/">French business climate see minimal rebound in June as struggles continue</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/what-are-the-main-events-for-today-20260623/">What are the main events for today?</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stocks/us-futures-hold-lower-as-tech-shares-lead-the-drop-again-20260623/">US futures hold lower as tech shares lead the drop again</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/Orders/fx-option-expiries-for-23-june-10am-new-york-cut-20260623/">FX option expiries for 23 June 10am New York cut</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/core-prices-in-japan-continue-to-keep-above-2-in-may-according-to-boj-data-20260623/">Core prices in Japan continue to keep above 2% in May, according to BOJ data</a></li></ul><p>The main highlight of the session were the Flash Eurozone and UK PMIs. The Eurozone June flash PMI painted a mixed picture, with services improving slightly to 48.9 versus 48.6 expected, suggesting the slowdown in activity may be stabilizing. </p><p data-start="1024" data-end="1485">In contrast, the UK services sector disappointed sharply, with June flash services PMI falling to 48.7 versus expectations of 50.1. The miss points to a notable loss of momentum in the UK economy, raising concerns that higher borrowing costs and weaker consumer demand are increasingly weighing on business activity, strengthening the case for a more cautious stance from the Bank of England.</p><p data-start="72" data-end="598">The Bank of Japan’s Core CPI gauge stayed above the 2% threshold in May. Although headline inflation remains partly distorted by government subsidies, the stickiness in underlying prices reinforces expectations that the BoJ will maintain its gradual tightening bias, especially as imported energy costs and a weaker yen continue to pose upside risks to inflation.</p><p data-start="72" data-end="598">Overall, the hawkish Fed shadow since last week is still driving the price action as nothing significant happened since then. In the American session, the only highlight will be the US Flash PMIs. Services PMI is expected to tick higher to 51.1 vs 50.7 prior, while the Manufacturing PMI is seen easing to 54.6 vs 55.1. </p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior 49.3</li><li>Manufacturing PMI 53.1 vs 53.5 expected</li><li>Prior 53.9</li><li>Composite PMI 49.4 vs 50.6 expected</li><li>Prior 49.7</li></ul><p>Key Findings:</p><ul><li>UK private sector output continues to stutter amid sharper decline in service sector activity</li></ul><p>Comment:</p><p>Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence:</p><p>“A disappointing June ‘flash’ PMI indicates that the economy contracted for a second successive month, albeit at only a 0.1% rate and merely flat-lining over the second quarter as a whole. </p><p>“Price pressures remain elevated as companies point to the energy shock and supply squeeze from the war in the Middle East as exacerbating existing cost pressures from government policies. </p><p>“These higher costs, combined with subdued business growth expectations for the year ahead, have caused employment to continue to fall at a worryingly high rate. </p><p>“While current weakness is focused on consumer-facing services, an offsetting expansion of the manufacturing sector could soon falter, as demand here is being temporarily buoyed by the building of safety stocks amid ongoing war related supply worries. </p><p>“Some of the war-related price pressures have started to moderate, however, largely thanks to lower energy prices, and the subdued growth and labour market pictures suggest that demand and wage-bargaining power are sufficiently slack to prevent inflation becoming entrenched. </p><p>“For the growth and inflation outlooks, much depends on progress towards an end to the conflict in the Middle East, but closer to home we are seeing signs of the unstable political environment unsettling business confidence and delaying spending, which will also need to calm in order to lay better foundations for economic growth to revive.”</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.