<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/the-fragile-optimism-in-markets-hangs-in-the-balance-20260423/">The fragile optimism in markets hangs in the balance</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/gold-remains-under-pressure-amid-us-iran-stalemate-traders-await-new-catalysts-20260423/">Gold remains under pressure amid US-Iran stalemate; traders await new catalysts</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/Cryptocurrency/the-single-chart-that-for-bitcoin-long-term-investors-shows-bulls-are-fine-20260423/">The single chart for bitcoin long term investors shows bulls are fine</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/japan-finance-minister-katayama-delivers-another-intervention-warning-20260423/">Japan finance minister Katayama delivers another intervention warning</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/france-april-flash-services-pmi-465-vs-485-expected-20260423/">France April flash services PMI 46.5 vs 48.5 expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/germany-april-flash-manufacturing-pmi-512-vs-514-expected-20260423/">Germany April flash manufacturing PMI 51.2 vs 51.4 expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/eurozone-april-flash-services-pmi-474-vs-498-expected-20260423/">Eurozone April flash services PMI 47.4 vs 49.8 expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/uk-march-flash-services-pmi-520-vs-500-expected-20260423/">UK March flash services PMI 52.0 vs 50.0 expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/uk-industry-sees-business-situation-at-the-most-pessimistic-since-the-covid-pandemic-20260423/">UK industry sees business situation at the most pessimistic since the Covid pandemic</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>Brent crude up 1.1% to $103.05, WTI crude up 1.2% to $94.13</li><li>USD leads, NZD lags on the day</li><li>Equities lower in Europe, S&amp;P 500 futures down 0.5%</li><li>US 10-year yields up 2.7 bps to 4.323%</li><li>Gold down 0.8% to $4,699, Silver down 4.0% to $74.60</li><li>Bitcoin down 1.2% to $77,533</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">It was another tense session in Europe, with markets staying gripped by the US-Iran conflict. There weren't any fresh developments as the next round of talks remain in limbo. The stalemate comes as Iran continues to grandstand in wanting the US to break its naval blockade before heading to the negotiating table.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In the meantime, the Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure and that is keeping the broader market mood on edge with the fragile optimism looking rather shaky at the moment.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Oil prices ramped higher again on the day with Brent crude up 1.1% to $103.05 and WTI crude up 1.2% to $94.13.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Even though stocks defied the worries yesterday, we are starting to see some nerves show today. That comes after a fake news scare in early Asia trading about Iran missiles, but that was enough to expose the fragile and frail optimism that the risk rally has been building on in the past week.</p><p class="text-align-justify">European indices are down across the board today with S&amp;P 500 futures also seen down 0.5% currently. That signals a more cautious mood ahead of US trading later with Tesla earnings in focus.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In other markets, the dollar is sitting slightly higher and keeping gains from yesterday. EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.1680 and USD/JPY up 0.1% to 159.70 levels with the latter prompting verbal intervention from Tokyo again. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is down 0.3% to 0.7138 as the risk mood stays slightly on the defensive on the session.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Elsewhere, precious metals are also being hit with some selling as gold is down 0.8% to $4,699 and silver down 4.0% to $74.60 on the day.</p><p class="text-align-justify">It's still all on US-Iran headlines until we get to the weekend from here.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">The manufacturing PMI data for April earlier reflected a good uptick in overall business activity. However, it belies the underlying situation as the "better" conditions were largely driven by firms bringing forward orders. The frontloading is mostly due to wanting to obuild safety stocks in anticipation of rising prices and supply constraints.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The latest CBI data is more telling about business sentiment and things aren't looking that great. The index for output volume expectations for the next three months sees a marked decline to -20, down from -3 in the previous report.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Meanwhile, optimism about the business situation and export prospects fell at the quickest pace since the onset of the Covid pandemic.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Adding to that, output price expectations jumped up to +32 in April as compared to +12 in March. The surge higher represents the biggest one-month jump since CBI records began in 1975. Ouch. And one can reasonably expect this to eventually be passed down the line to consumers via prices charged.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The quarterly survey also reveals that firms' intentions for spending on buildings, plant &amp; machinery, training are at the weakest since April 2020 as well. And that unit costs are expected to climb at the fastest pace in over three years in the coming quarter.</p><p class="text-align-justify">All in all, it points to likely struggles in the UK industry as higher price pressures start to bite and compound towards demand conditions at some point. The BOE will be keen to avoid stagflation talk for the most part but if things stay this way and the Middle East war drags on, you can bet that there will be growing murmurs about this issue in the months to come.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">The PMI data from the euro area today shows a significant contrast. While the industry sector held up in April, albeit with a caveat, the services sector struggled due to softer demand conditions amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict. Higher energy prices is starting to bite at both the French and German economies and that is not a good early sign.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The caveat for the manufacturing sector performance owes to a surge in new orders on the month. And that is heavily linked to customers seeking to secure purchases amid concerns over price rises and supply shortages. In essence, it is a case of demand frontloading as supply chains are set to become tighter in the near future. And the situation is not helped amid the continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Looking over to the inflation side of things, we're starting to see price pressures ramp up across the region. In particular, input price inflation is surging upwards to its highest in three years. It largely stems from the manufacturing side of things, with the frontloading above at least helping to distract from the growing pain in this area.</p><p class="text-align-justify">As for the services sector, the shoot up is less profound but will present a bigger problem down the road. For now though, it seems that the price passthrough is not yet going to the end consumer. But the key question is, how long can businesses absorb this cost? And with already flagging demand conditions, the outlook isn't pretty.</p><p class="text-align-justify">As seen above, input prices have jumped significantly in the manufacturing sector especially but is also climbing strongly in the services sector. On the latter, at least prices charged have not gone up all too much with France especially keeping things in check. HCOB notes that in the case of Europe's second largest economy that:</p><p class="text-align-justify">"The passthrough to overall prices charged across the private sector was contained, although inflationary pressures did pick up in April. Services companies posted only a marginal rise in charges, whereas output price inflation across manufacturing jumped to a 38-month high. The limited increase in services was the key reason keeping overall selling price pressures contained."</p><p class="text-align-justify">However, it wasn't really the case in Germany:</p><p class="text-align-justify">"Businesses were more aggressive with their price setting in April as they looked to pass on some of the burden of higher costs to customers. The rates of inflation in services and manufacturing output charges were the highest for 35 and 39 months, respectively."</p><p class="text-align-justify">In any case, the trend is rather clear. And as things keep this way, it creates a big problem for the ECB.</p><p class="text-align-justify">While inflation pressures are being driven higher, the economic outlook is deteriorating. That creates a bad mix in the economy, with fears of stagflation pressures being more embedded in the region.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Adding to the struggling economic outlook is that we are likely to even see more widespread supply shortages down the road.</p><p class="text-align-justify">HCOB already noted that supplier lead times have lengthened to the largest extent since July 2022 in the manufacturing sector.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The German industry is the one that will be under heavy scrutiny here and firms are already reporting an eighth successive monthly increase in average lead times on purchases in April. And that is very much tied to bottlenecks, capacity constraints, raw material shortages, and disruption to transportation due to the Middle East conflict.</p><p class="text-align-justify">It's early days but the longer this relative uncertainty drags on, the more painful it will be for the euro area economy. And in turn, the bigger the headache will be for the ECB as they have to manage balancing out a weakening economy alongside surging price pressures.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior 50.5</li><li>Manufacturing PMI 53.6 vs 50.3 expected</li><li>Prior 51.0</li><li>Composite PMI 52.0 vs 49.9 expected</li><li>Prior 50.3</li></ul><p>S&amp;P Global notes that its gauge of input prices in this month showed the biggest monthly increase since records began 28 years ago. This will certainly keep the BoE in a neutral to hawkish stance as cutting rates now would erase all the inflation progress since 2022.</p><p>The agency also notes "prices are rising not just because of surging energy costs, but also due to increases in charges levied for a wide variety of goods and services, with price hikes often stoked by supply concerns".</p><p>While there's a welcome resilience in economic activity, analysts note that the details of the survey suggest this could not be sustained without a resolution of the crisis in the Middle East.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior 50.2</li><li>Manufacturing PMI 52.2 vs 50.9 expected</li><li>Prior 51.6</li><li>Composite PMI 48.6 vs 50.1 expected</li><li>Prior 50.7</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">Similar to the French and German reports earlier, the industry sector shows a modest jump in activity but again it likely owes much to a frontloading in the order books. That as clients are choosing to secure shipments as quick as they can amid fears of widespread supply shortages and rising expenses.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Meanwhile, surging input price inflation will be ultimate worry for businesses and also for the ECB. That will eventually have a much wider and bigger impact on the economy, as price pressures slowly trickle down to the consumer. For now, households have to deal with just higher fuel prices. But once businesses have to come to terms with rising operating costs, that will eventually be passed on to consumers and feed into core prices more prominently.</p><p class="text-align-justify">And amid the struggles, we're already seeing the services sector take a significant knock in April. So, that won't bode well for the economic outlook for the months heading into the summer.</p><p class="text-align-justify">HCOB notes that:</p><p class="text-align-justify">“The eurozone is facing deepening economic woes from the war in the Middle East, presenting a major headache for policymakers. The conflict has pushed the economy into decline in April, while driving inflation sharply higher. Increasingly widespread supply shortages meanwhile threaten to dampen growth further while adding more upward pressure to prices in the coming weeks. </p><p class="text-align-justify">“April’s flash PMI has moved into contraction territory for the first time since late 2024, signalling a 0.1% quarterly rate of GDP decline after a 0.2% gain had been signalled for the first quarter. The war is currently hitting the service sector hardest, where business activity is falling at a rate not seen since the pandemic lockdowns of early 2021. However, the sustained growth of manufacturing meanwhile seen in April comes with something of a sting in the tail, as demand for goods is being buoyed by stock building as companies scramble to secure purchases ahead of further price hikes or supply shortages. Manufacturers have increased their buying of inputs to a degree not witnessed since early 2022 as supply chain delays have also risen to the most widespread since the pandemic. </p><p class="text-align-justify">“Input costs and selling prices have already jumped higher not just in response to higher energy costs but in a reflection of a broader upturn in commodity prices and mis-match of demand against constrained supply. If the COVID-19 pandemic is excluded, this is the biggest surge in cost pressures that we have recorded since 2000. </p><p class="text-align-justify">“Not surprisingly, businesses are taking an increasingly gloomy view of the outlook, with sentiment now down to its lowest since late 2022. </p><p class="text-align-justify">“In this environment, the ECB once again has the unenviable task of deciding whether to raise interest rates in the face of the worrying inflation picture, or whether this price spike will prove temporary and its focus should instead be on the need to prevent the economy sliding into a deeper downturn. While postponing any decision could make either scenario worse, it would be understandable to see rate setters sit on their hands and await more clarity on the situation, both in terms of the conflict and the assessment of the eurozone’s economic health.”</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior 52.2</li><li>Services PMI 46.9 vs 50.4 expected</li><li>Prior 50.9</li><li>Composite PMI 48.3 vs 51.2 expected</li><li>Prior 51.9</li></ul><p>The US-Iran war is clearly weighing on economic activity as growth slows down further while inflation rises. The composite PMI fell into contraction for the first time since May 2025.</p><p>The agency notes: "The recovery in the German economy has been stopped in its tracks by the war in the Middle East. The manufacturing sector saw output and new orders edge higher, although there are warning signs that it could slip back into contraction. There's seemingly been little spillover to the labour market as yet, with jobs being cut at only a slightly faster rate than the trend in the months before the war started. That could change if activity remains supressed and energy prices remain elevated".</p><p>This is not going to change anything for the ECB as the central bank has already signalled it's going to keep interest rates steady in April as it gathers more information. It's going to be hard though to hike rates into an economic slowdown as it could exacerbate the negative effects.</p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior 48.8</li><li>Manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs 49.5 expected</li><li>Prior 50.0</li><li>Composite PMI 47.6 vs 48.6 expected</li><li>Prior 48.8</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">French economic activity is seen contracting at its quickest pace in 14 months as the fallout from the Middle East conflict continues to bite at Europe's second largest economy. That comes despite some positive news from the industrial side of things, with stronger factory output growth recorded for the month.</p><p class="text-align-justify">That being said, the jump in factory order books owes much to some frontloading activity. It is the first time in nearly four years that the order book expanded but it is mostly due to clients bringing forward purchases ahead of expected shortages and price increases as supply issues arise from the Strait of Hormuz closure.</p><p class="text-align-justify">To nobody's surprise, input price inflation continued to surge higher in April - rising to a three-year high. A mix of higher costs for energy, fuel, transportation, chemicals and metals were commonly mentioned by panellists. So, just be mindful of that as it will eventually reverberate to all other aspects of the economy in due time.</p><p class="text-align-justify">HCOB notes that:</p><p class="text-align-justify">"There is a lot to unpack in the latest 'flash' PMI data for France. The service economy has deteriorated due to a diminishing willingness to spend – a typical consequence of uncertainty – pulling overall business activity levels lower. Preventing the headline 'flash' index from falling even further below 50.0 was the manufacturing sector, which saw a production rebound in April. However, this does not look like a turning point and will likely be temporary, as our survey respondents reported advance purchasing from customers in anticipation of price increases, shortages and logistics issues. </p><p class="text-align-justify">"Unsurprisingly, manufacturing inflation moved even higher in April as a range of raw material costs rose, transportation became more expensive and supply bottlenecks pushed up prices. Services companies are also feeling the pressure from higher transportation costs. What's most notable is that the passthrough to prices charged for goods and services remains contained. Services charges have barely moved since the outbreak of the war, which will be a welcome sight for policymakers in the European Central Bank. How long this continues remains to be seen, however, given the strain that corporate margins will be feeling."</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior 97</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">It's a notable miss on estimates as the French business climate worsens significantly amid the fallout from the US-Iran conflict. The reading is the lowest since February 2021.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Manufacturing confidence actually held up in April, recording a 100 reading compared to 99 in March. However, the were marked deteriorations in both services (94 compared to 96 previously) and the retail trade sector (94 compared to 100 previously). The employment index held steady at 95 on the month.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Higher energy prices that feeds to higher input cost inflation, which will also dampen domestic demand eventually, is what is weighing on the general outlook here.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Trouble, trouble.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<p>EUROPEAN SESSION</p><p>In the European session, we have the Flash PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. We already got the PMIs for Australia and Japan and although they showed resilience, they highlighted that the war in the Middle East is the key factor dampening optimism, with economic performance unlikely to be sustained unless uncertainty is reduced and supply chains stabilise. This war is affecting everyone, so we should see similar responses in the other PMIs.</p><p>AMERICAN SESSION</p><p>In the American session, we get the US Jobless Claims data and the Flash US PMIs. Initial Claims are expected at 210K vs 207K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1816K vs 1818K prior. The labour market data has been very good lately which isn't justifying any kind of rate cut the market has been pricing in. On the contrary, if the war ends soon, we might see even stronger economic activity going forward which could bring rate hikes back on the table. </p><p>The US Flash PMIs are expected to pretty much mirror the sentiment of the others. The last release showed a combination of slower growth and rising inflation following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, and that might not have changed much.</p><p>CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS</p><ul><li>15:00 GMT/11:00 ET - ECB's Nagel (neutral - voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

<p class="text-align-justify">As oil prices continue to move up, there was a surprising rally in US stocks yesterday. But after some fake news chatter overnight, that is putting a dampener on the risk mood as we get into the new day. S&amp;P 500 futures are now down 0.5% with the cautious optimism this week being uncovered to be a rather fragile one.</p><p class="text-align-justify">All it takes is one negative headline blip and it could all come undone. And after having that exposed for just a moment, we're starting to see a more nervous mood again.</p><p class="text-align-justify">As a reminder, US president Trump has set no deadline to the ceasefire extension this time around. And on the Iran side of things, they are continuing to maintain that there is no point for negotiations so long as the US naval blockade continues. So, we're basically at a high-level stalemate until someone decides to cede some ground.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Markets were quite convinced that there will be some good news eventually, and I'm sure there will be. The main question though is when is that going to come? Is it a few days from now? Is it a week from now? Is it a month from now?</p><p class="text-align-justify">And the longer this goes on, the reality of the situation is that global oil supply continues to tighten further. There was just one vessel that transited the Strait of Hormuz in the whole of yesterday. Yes, just one. That being Panama-flagged bulk carrier, LB Energy. Other than that, no other ships were willing to even attempt the crossing with Iran having attacked a couple of vessels yesterday.</p><p class="text-align-justify">So yes, the waterway is still in de facto closure.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The longer this drags on, the more markets have to realise that this is going to have a more profound impact on the global economy. Adding to that is the more embedded impact it will have on price pressures in major economies too. And that means central banks will be slowly wrestled off the path of cutting interest rates and having to either be more hawkish or neutral at the very least.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In that lieu, this fragile optimism is starting to look more and more dicey as each day passes. Think of it as being pushed one step closer to the edge of walking the plank. Markets are banking on something or someone *coughs* Trump *coughs* to rescue them but at some point, there will be no firm footing to stand on anymore.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/euro-heavy-across-majors-as-germany-slashes-growth-outlook-20260423/">Euro heavy across majors as Germany slashes growth outlook</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/aud-australian-pension-funds-rush-to-shield-portfolios-from-iran-war-currency-shock-20260423/">AUD: Australian pension funds rush to shield portfolios from Iran war currency shock</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/fed-rate-cuts-pushed-to-late-2026-as-middle-east-war-fuels-inflation-surge-20260423/">Fed rate cuts pushed to late 2026 as Middle East war fuels inflation surge</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-for-today-at-68650-vs-estimate-at-68294-20260423/">PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8650 (vs. estimate at 6.8294)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/fake-news-social-media-on-an-attack-on-tehran-sent-oil-up-stocks-down-unwound-now-20260423/">Fake news (social media) on an attack on Tehran sent oil up, stocks down. Unwound now.</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/japan-pmi-shows-manufacturing-surge-as-services-slowdown-caps-growth-20260423/">Japan PMI shows manufacturing surge as services slowdown caps growth</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/new-zealand-finance-minister-on-iran-war-inflation-could-hit-74-worst-case-scenario-20260423/">New Zealand Finance Minister on Iran war: Inflation could hit 7.4% (worst case scenario)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stocks/tesla-to-ramp-capex-to-25bn-as-ai-push-deepens-despite-strong-q1-cash-flow-20260423/">Tesla to ramp capex to $25bn as AI push deepens despite strong Q1 cash flow</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/south-korea-q1-growth-surges-past-forecasts-on-semiconductor-export-boom-20260422/">South Korea Q1 growth surges past forecasts on semiconductor export boom</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/australian-preliminary-april-pmis-jump-back-into-expansion-20260422/">Australian preliminary April PMIs jump back into expansion</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/gold-steadies-after-drop-as-iran-tensions-and-dollar-keep-prices-rangebound-20260422/">Gold steadies after drop as Iran tensions and dollar keep prices rangebound</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/stock-market-update/ai-stocks-near-45-of-sp-500-weight-goldman-flags-rising-concentration-20260422/">AI stocks near 45% of S&amp;P 500 weight, Goldman flags rising concentration</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/us-crude-stocks-rise-19m-vs-draw-expected-as-gasoline-distillates-fall-20260422/">US crude stocks rise 1.9m vs draw expected as gasoline, distillates fall</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/commodity-traders-reap-billions-as-iran-war-drives-oil-market-volatility-ps-its-the-job-20260422/">Commodity traders reap billions as Iran war drives oil market volatility (ps. its the job)</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/investinglive-americas-market-news-wrap-stock-markets-rally-even-as-oil-prices-climb-20260422/">investingLive Americas market news wrap: Stock markets rally even as oil prices climb</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/more-detail-on-the-us-seizing-iranian-oil-tankers-all-the-way-over-in-asia-20260422/">More detail on the US seizing Iranian oil tankers all the way over in Asia</a></li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Summary</p><ul class="[li_&amp;]:mb-0 [li_&amp;]:mt-1 [li_&amp;]:gap-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ul]:pb-1 [&amp;:not(:last-child)_ol]:pb-1 list-disc flex flex-col gap-1 pl-8 mb-3"><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Unverified social media rumours of a fresh Iran attack caused a brief spike in oil and dip in stocks, both of which quickly reversed when the reports were not confirmed</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">USD edged higher with Middle East newsflow quiet</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Asia-Pacific equities finished mostly lower despite Wall Street having closed positively</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">South Korea Q1 GDP came in well above forecasts, driven by a surge in semiconductor exports tied to AI demand</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Australian flash PMIs improved; Japan manufacturing picked up while services softened slightly</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Markets across the Asia-Pacific region had a largely quiet session, though not without a moment of drama. Rumours circulating on social media suggested a fresh attack on Iran was underway, triggering a sharp but short-lived reaction, with energy prices jumping and equities pulling back before stabilising as the reports failed to gain any official confirmation. The episode was a reminder of how quickly unverified information can move markets in the current environment, where geopolitical nerves remain close to the surface.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Away from the noise, the US dollar found modest footing through the session. There was an absence of any new developments out of the Middle East.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Regional equity markets struggled to build on a constructive overnight lead from Wall Street, mostly in the red as caution prevailed. The positive handover from the United States was not enough to shift the mood.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">On the data front, South Korea delivered the session's most notable result, with first quarter growth coming in comfortably ahead of expectations. Strong overseas demand for its technology exports, particularly semiconductors, was the key driver, reflecting the ongoing global appetite for AI-related hardware. The result did, however, point to a continuing dependence on external demand to power the economy.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">Purchasing managers index readings (April, preliminary) from Australia came in better than the previous period. In Japan, factory activity improved while the services sector lost a little ground.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>Traders ready to jump at shadows. And to hit stops ;-) </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>Japan’s composite PMI eased to 52.4 (exp. 51.4) as manufacturing surged to 54.9 but services slowed to 51.2. Strong factory output offset weaker domestic demand, while rising costs and falling confidence point to a more uneven growth outlook.</p><p>Summary:</p><ul><li data-section-id="1j51vo9" data-start="176" data-end="252">Manufacturing PMI: 54.9 (exp. 51.8, prev. 51.6) → strong upside surprise </li><li data-section-id="1iz2e58" data-start="253" data-end="318"> Services PMI: 51.2 (exp. 52.0, prev. 53.4) → notable slowdown </li><li data-section-id="e3a37w" data-start="319" data-end="390"> Composite PMI: 52.4 (exp. 51.4, prev. 53.0) → softer overall growth </li><li data-section-id="rbmg0m" data-start="391" data-end="453"> Manufacturing output posts strongest rise in over 12 years </li><li data-section-id="1lce8d5" data-start="454" data-end="514"> Price pressures intensify; confidence falls to 2020 lows</li></ul><p data-start="655" data-end="875">Japan’s private sector continued to expand in April, though underlying momentum softened as a sharp acceleration in manufacturing activity was offset by a slowdown in services.</p><p data-start="877" data-end="1232">Flash data from S&amp;P Global showed the composite PMI eased to 52.4 from 53.0 in March, coming in above expectations for 51.4 but marking the slowest pace of expansion in four months. Despite the moderation, the index remained firmly above the 50 threshold, extending the current growth streak to 13 consecutive months.</p><p data-start="1234" data-end="1713">The key driver of the release was a significant upside surprise in manufacturing. The manufacturing PMI jumped to 54.9 from 51.6, well above expectations, while output rose at the fastest pace in more than 12 years. The strength reflects a combination of improved new orders and a proactive increase in production, with firms reportedly ramping up activity amid concerns about potential supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.</p><p data-start="1715" data-end="2030">In contrast, the services sector lost momentum. The services PMI fell to 51.2 from 53.4, undershooting expectations and marking the slowest expansion in nearly a year. Growth in both activity and new business moderated, suggesting that domestic demand conditions are softening.</p><p data-start="2032" data-end="2292">New business across the private sector continued to rise, though only modestly, with gains driven by manufacturing while services demand slowed. Export orders showed a mixed picture, with goods producers seeing stronger demand, while services exports weakened.</p><p data-start="2294" data-end="2668">Inflation pressures intensified across the economy. Input costs rose at the fastest pace since early 2023, with firms citing higher prices for energy, raw materials and labour. These pressures were linked in part to geopolitical developments and a weaker currency, and were increasingly passed on to customers, pushing output price inflation to a record high for the survey.</p><p data-start="2670" data-end="2871">Supply chain conditions also deteriorated, particularly in manufacturing, where delivery times lengthened sharply amid shipping disruptions and logistical constraints tied to the Middle East situation.</p><p data-start="2873" data-end="3143">Despite ongoing expansion, confidence weakened notably. Business sentiment fell to its lowest level since August 2020, reflecting uncertainty around the geopolitical outlook and concerns that current strength in manufacturing may not be sustained if disruptions persist.</p><p data-start="3145" data-end="3324">Overall, the data highlights a more unbalanced growth profile, with industrial activity surging while the services sector softens, and rising costs adding to the policy challenge.</p><p>-</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>New Zealand Finance Minister on Iran war, Treasure forecastd: </p><ul><li>inflation could hit 7.4% in 25/26 under worst case scenario</li><li>real GDP growth at 0.8% in 2025–26 under worst case scenario</li><li>forecasts unemployment at 5.7% in 2025/26 under worst case scenario of oil at $180/barrel</li></ul><p>Adds:</p><ul><li>New Zealand economic recovery is delayed, not derailed</li><li>High/y unlikely oil will hit $180</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>South Korea’s Q1 GDP rose 1.7% q/q and 3.6% y/y (exp. 2.7%, prev. 1.6%), beating forecasts. Growth was driven by a 5.1% surge in exports led by semiconductors, highlighting strong AI-linked demand and reliance on external drivers.</p><p>Summary:</p><ul><li data-section-id="1dqd4d4" data-start="176" data-end="236">Q1 GDP: +1.7% q/q (exp. +1.0%) → strongest since Q3 2020 </li><li data-section-id="1c37bm8" data-start="237" data-end="302"> Y/Y GDP: +3.6% (exp. +2.7%, prev. +1.6%) → sharp acceleration </li><li data-section-id="1jdr9os" data-start="303" data-end="361"> Exports +5.1% → driven by semiconductors and AI demand </li><li data-section-id="zxrcfv" data-start="362" data-end="415"> Investment rebounds +4.8% after prior contraction </li><li data-section-id="1xe4u8q" data-start="416" data-end="473"> Consumption modest +0.5%; government spending subdued</li></ul><p data-start="604" data-end="886">South Korea’s economy delivered a strong upside surprise in the first quarter of 2026, supported by robust semiconductor exports and a rebound in investment, highlighting the country’s exposure to the global artificial intelligence cycle.</p><p data-start="888" data-end="1225">Data from the Bank of Korea showed gross domestic product expanded 1.7% quarter-on-quarter in the January–March period, comfortably exceeding expectations for a 1.0% increase. The result marks the fastest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2020, when the economy was rebounding from pandemic disruptions.</p><p data-start="1227" data-end="1451">On an annual basis, growth accelerated sharply to 3.6%, up from 1.6% in the previous quarter and well above forecasts for 2.7%. The jump underscores a significant improvement in momentum, driven primarily by external demand.</p><p data-start="1453" data-end="1789">Exports were the key engine, rising 5.1% over the quarter, led by shipments of IT components, particularly semiconductors linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure. Strong global demand for chips continues to underpin South Korea’s export sector, reinforcing its position as a critical node in the global technology supply chain.</p><p data-start="1791" data-end="2067">Domestic demand showed more modest improvement. Private consumption increased 0.5%, suggesting a gradual recovery in household spending following earlier signs of stabilisation. However, government expenditure rose just 0.1%, continuing to weigh on the broader growth profile.</p><p data-start="2069" data-end="2327">Investment provided a notable positive contribution, with facility investment rising 4.8% after contracting by 1.7% in the previous quarter. The rebound points to improving corporate confidence, particularly in export-oriented and technology-related sectors.</p><p data-start="2329" data-end="2588">The composition of growth highlights an economy still heavily reliant on external drivers. While the export and investment surge is delivering strong headline growth, softer domestic demand and limited fiscal support indicate that the recovery remains uneven.</p><p data-start="2590" data-end="2840">Looking ahead, the sustainability of this growth will depend on continued strength in semiconductor demand and the broader AI investment cycle, as well as whether improvements in external demand begin to translate into more durable domestic momentum.</p><p data-start="2847" data-end="3173">--</p><p data-start="2847" data-end="3173"> The data reinforces the global AI and semiconductor demand narrative, supporting Asian export equities and chip-related sectors. However, the reliance on external demand leaves the outlook sensitive to shifts in the global tech cycle, while soft domestic demand limits broader macro spillovers.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p data-start="0" data-end="72">Australia S&amp;P Global PMI composite (April 2026 preliminary): 50.1 (prior 46.6)</p><ul data-start="73" data-end="145" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node=""><li data-section-id="poe16f" data-start="73" data-end="112"> Manufacturing PMI: 51.0 (prior 49.8) </li><li data-section-id="1gnho0v" data-start="113" data-end="145" data-is-last-node=""> Services PMI: 50.3 (prior 46.3)</li></ul><ul><li data-section-id="1c9j2ce" data-start="466" data-end="564">New orders fall again, highlighting weak domestic demand </li><li data-section-id="1aww6md" data-start="565" data-end="672"> Cost inflation hits highest since Aug 2022 on fuel, freight surge </li></ul><p data-start="803" data-end="1049">Australia’s private sector returned to growth at the start of the second quarter, though the improvement masks ongoing weakness in demand and rising inflation pressures tied to the Middle East conflict.</p><p data-start="1051" data-end="1403">Flash data from S&amp;P Global showed the composite PMI rose to 50.1 in April from 46.6 in March, signalling a stabilisation in overall business activity after a sharp contraction the previous month. The move back above the 50 threshold indicates a return to marginal growth, but the underlying picture remains uneven.</p><p data-start="1405" data-end="1773">The recovery was driven almost entirely by the services sector, where activity rebounded to 50.3 following a steep decline in March. Services firms reported a modest pickup in output and stronger hiring, helping lift overall activity. However, this rebound was relatively subdued, reflecting ongoing softness in demand conditions.</p><p data-start="1775" data-end="2202">In contrast, manufacturing continues to struggle beneath the surface. While the headline manufacturing PMI edged into expansion territory, output has now declined for three consecutive months, pointing to continued weakness in the industrial sector. Order books, employment and inventory levels also showed declines, reinforcing the view that manufacturing remains in a retrenchment phase.</p><p data-start="2204" data-end="2604">Demand conditions across the economy remain fragile. Total new business fell for a second straight month as heightened uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions weighed on client activity. Domestic demand was particularly soft, although export orders showed a modest increase, supported by demand from key regions including North America, Asia and New Zealand. </p><p data-start="2606" data-end="2972">At the same time, inflation pressures are intensifying. Input costs rose at the fastest pace since August 2022, driven by higher fuel and shipping expenses linked to disruptions in global supply chains. These pressures are increasingly being passed on to customers, with output price inflation accelerating to a multi-year high.</p><p data-start="2974" data-end="3241">Supply chain conditions have also deteriorated, particularly in manufacturing, where delivery times lengthened at the fastest pace since mid-2022 amid shipping delays and logistical disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict. </p><p data-start="3243" data-end="3516">Business confidence has weakened, falling to its lowest level in nearly two-and-a-half years, reflecting concerns over both demand and cost pressures. Despite this, firms increased hiring to work through existing backlogs, suggesting some resilience in underlying activity.</p><p data-start="3518" data-end="3755">Overall, while the headline PMI signals stabilisation, the combination of weak demand, rising costs and supply disruptions highlights a fragile economic backdrop, with risks tilted toward stagflation-like conditions if pressures persist.</p><p>---</p><p>The report leans mildly stagflationary. Growth has stabilised but remains weak, while cost pressures are accelerating sharply due to energy and supply disruptions. This complicates the policy outlook, reinforcing expectations that central banks will remain cautious as inflation risks persist despite soft demand.</p><p>---</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-has-not-set-a-timeline-for-the-extension-of-the-ceasefire-report-20260422/">Trump has not set a timeline for the extension of the ceasefire - report</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/iran-president-breach-of-commitments-blockade-and-threats-are-main-obstacles-to-talks-20260422/">Iran President: Breach of commitments, blockade and threats are main obstacles to talks</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-touts-that-iranian-women-he-asked-to-be-released-wont-be-executed-20260422/">Trump touts that Iranian women he asked to be released won't be executed</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/iran-parliamentary-speaker-ghalibaf-complete-ceasefire-only-makes-sense-without-blockade-20260422/">Iran parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf: Complete ceasefire only makes sense without blockade</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/us-eia-weekly-crude-oil-inventories-1925k-vs-1200k-expected-20260422/">US EIA weekly crude oil inventories +1925K vs -1200K expected</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/april-eurozone-flash-consumer-confidence-206-vs-163-prior-20260422/">April eurozone flash consumer confidence -20.6 vs -16.3 prior</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/trump-says-talks-with-iran-possible-on-friday-report-20260422/">Trump says talks with Iran "possible" on Friday - report</a></li><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/news/germany-cuts-gdp-forecast-in-half-on-the-iran-war-20260422/">Germany cuts GDP forecast in half on the Iran war</a>.</li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>S&amp;P 500 up 1.1%</li><li>Nasdaq up 1.6%</li><li>WTI crude oil up $2.88 to $92.53</li><li>US 10-year yields flat at 4.30%</li><li>Gold up $28 to $4740</li><li>NZD leads, CHF lags</li></ul><p>The stock market continued to rise on Wednesday, led by some of the most-heavily shorted stocks. That's a bit of a red flag but they weren't the only gainers as tech optimism was leading the charge.</p><p>That came despite a renewed rise in oil prices as there is confusion over how long the latest ceasefire might last. The market appears to be confident that a deal will eventually materialize with some talk about Friday talks or something on the weekend. Trump said he would allow some time for Iran's negotiators to present a deal and several reports said that meant 3-5 days but the White House later claimed that there wasn't a deadline (not that they've mattered before).</p><p>The euro softened in line with the move higher in oil and softer German growth numbers (though the later wasn't a surprise). Economic data was limited and so was Iran news so that limited volatility. </p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>Australia's PMIs are expected to remain in contraction today (the flash readings for April). PMIs returned to contraction in March as demand weakened and cost pressures surged. </p><p>From Japan the picture for April is not expected to be so bleak.</p><p>The focus today is once again on the war makers, not data. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

<p>From Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian:</p><blockquote>The Islamic Republic of Iran has welcomed dialogue and agreement and continues to do so. Breach of commitments, blockade and threats are main obstacles to genuine negotiations. World sees your endless hypocritical rhetoric and contradiction between claims and actions.</blockquote><p>There is fairly consistent messaging around this but there is still seemingly a path to peace where everyone drops their blockades and sanctions and both sides declare victory.</p><p>Obviously, the stock market is continuing to bet that way even as oil prices creep higher.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>This is a bit of a bizarre saga.</p><p>Yesterday, Trump reposted a bit about 8 Iranian women who he said were scheduled to be hanged and he asked to release them.</p><blockquote>To the Iranian leaders, who will soon be in negotiations with my representatives: I would greatly appreciate the release of these women. I am sure that they will respect the fact that you did so. Please do them no harm! Would be a great start to our negotiations!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP</blockquote><p>Now he writes:</p><blockquote>Very good news! I have just been informed that the eight women protestors who were going to be executed tonight in Iran will no longer be killed. Four will be released immediately, and four will be sentenced to one month in prison. I very much appreciate that Iran, and its leaders, respected my request, as President of the United States, and terminated the planned execution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP</blockquote><p>The thing is, it's been reported that the women were never facing any kind of death sentence. Oslo-based Iran Human Rights reported yesterday that two of the women were out on bail already.</p><p>Iran’s also responded to Trump's post, saying some of the women have already been released without naming them. It said none of them faced the death sentence.</p><p>It's tough to understand what's going on here, whether someone bamboozled him on Truth Social or he was trying to stitch something together to claim a win, some kind of diplomacy meant to make Iran look merciful or something else.</p><p>In any case, the market is taking it as good news and I think that's the right take. If Trump's happy, then the market is happy.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>It's important to note that with all the MB Ghalibaf posts, that his twitter account appears to be run from Los Angeles by someone connected with him, not the man himself. That's led to some bizarre posts about trading brent crude and it also calls into question a message like this that might be more interpretation than a finely-crafted message.</p><p>Anyway, this is just out (translated):</p><blockquote>A complete ceasefire only makes sense if it is not violated by the maritime blockade and the hostage-taking of the world’s economy, and if the Zionist warmongering across all fronts is halted; reopening the Strait of Hormuz is impossible with such a flagrant breach of the ceasefire. They did not achieve their goals through military aggression, nor will they through bullying. The only way forward is to recognize the rights of the Iranian nation.</blockquote><p>Meanwhile, CBS is out with a <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-ceasefire-strait-hormuz-ship-attacked-us-military-buildup/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">report </a>that says about half of Iran's stockpile of ballistic missiles are still operational. </p><blockquote>About half of Iran's stockpile of ballistic missiles and its associated launch systems were still intact as of the start of the ceasefire in early April, three of the officials told CBS News.</blockquote><p>That's important because it means that Iran still definitely has the capability to destroy neighboring infrastructure if it's energy system is attacked. In terms of mines or capturing ships, it also says that roughly 60% of the naval arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is still in existence with two-thirds of the air force still operational.</p><p>Obviously the ground forces are also still largely intact as well, as there has been virtually no ground fighting.</p><p>That strongly contrasts with what Trump has said about Iran's navy and air force being completely decimated. It also makes you wonder what the 15,000 bombs dropped were aimed at.</p><p>Oil prices continue to tick higher today with WTI up $3.33 to $93.31.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>I think the 3-5 day timeline first reported was more of a ballpark anyway so I don't really take this as a meaningful update. It seems like the US has decided to just wait and see what Iran will do next. The only real action we've had today is Iran firing on three cargo ships in the Strait. There are reports that two of them were seized but that's unconfirmed.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Prior was -16.3</li></ul><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) is the European Commission's flagship monthly gauge of household sentiment across the 21 euro-area members and is one of the most closely watched real-time reads on the region's economy. Compiled by the Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), the index is built from harmonized consumer surveys covering households' assessments of their financial situation, the broader economic outlook, and intentions to make major purchases over the next 12 months. The Commission publishes a flash estimate in the final week of each month, followed by a final reading at month-end as part of the wider Business and Consumer Survey package that also includes the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) and Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI). The CCI is expressed as a balance of positive and negative responses, so all readings tend to sit in negative territory; the long-run average is roughly -10.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">After a difficult 2024, sentiment had been gradually improving through the early part of 2026. February's reading was confirmed at -12.2, the highest level since November 2024, supported by a brighter view of the overall economy and easing inflation expectations. That fragile recovery reversed sharply in March. The flash CCI plunged 4.0 points to -16.3 — the weakest reading since October 2023 and well below consensus expectations near -14.4. Sentiment across the broader EU mirrored the move, falling 3.4 points to -15.2.</p><p class="font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal leading-[1.7]">The Commission attributed the deterioration to a dramatic decline in consumers' expectations for the overall economic situation, with households also turning more pessimistic on future finances and big-ticket purchases. Rising energy and inflation expectations tied to the Iran conflict were cited as key drivers. The broader ESI also fell, to 96.6, deepening fears of stagflation as private-sector output slowed.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<p>The New York Post texted President Trump to ask about the possibility of renewed mediation efforts and talks within the next 36-72 hours and he responded:</p><blockquote>“It’s possible! President DJT.”</blockquote><p>Signing texts is a strange one but I wouldn't run too far with this <a href="https://nypost.com/2026/04/22/us-news/trump-tells-the-post-second-round-of-talks-possible-as-soon-as-friday-as-iran-scrambles-to-come-up-with-unified-plan/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">report</a>. Perhaps the more notable part is that it cited "Pakistani sources" on positive mediation efforts:</p><blockquote>Sources in Islamabad touted positive mediation efforts with Tehran renewing the possibility of more peace talks within the next “36 to 72 hours.”</blockquote><p>There was also a quirk in a Fars report. A quote attributed to Ismail Baghaei, the spokesman for the Islamic Republic's Foreign Ministry, regarding "accepting a ceasefire mediated by Pakistan" was published but was deleted minutes later. It was quickly picked up but now Fars says that news about a ceasefire has not been published by any official source.</p><p>Between these two reports, you get the sense that there is some good news behind the scenes but it's going to be a bumpy road. They're still fighting over the preliminary conditions for talks and not the details of any agreement. It's hard to say whether the IRGC is driving a hard line, it's miscommunication or US efforts to sow confusion. I also tend to think that Iran dragging this out works in their favor as every day of delay tightens the global oil market.</p><p>Update: Now CNN echoes earlier reports saying that Trump has given Iranian negotiators a "limited timeframe" to come up with a unified proposal to get negotiations back on track. That's been reported elsewhere as 3-5 days but it's likely that Trump hasn't given them a firm timeline. Also note that he back off of 'deadlines' around attacking infrastructure 5 times now so it's not like the exact timeframe matters anyway.</p><p>There is this as well as Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson to BBC: </p><blockquote> Iran has not yet decided whether it will join the next round of talks with the U.S. late this week in Islamabad. "If we reach the conclusion that going to Islamabad serves our national interests, we will go there."</blockquote> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

<ul><li>Sees 2026 GDP growth of 0.5% vs 1.0% previously</li><li>Sees 2027 GDP at 0.9% vs 1.3% previously</li><li>Expects inflation to rise to 2.7% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027</li><li>Expects flat exports this year, up 1.3% in 2027</li><li>Recovery again held back by external shocks</li></ul><p>The Bundesbank was out with some comment earlier:</p><ul><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">"The negative effects of the war in the Middle East are likely to be felt largely only later on"</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Q2 outlook points to "another modest expansion, at best"</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Fiscal policy to provide "increasingly positive impulses," but war will weigh "more broadly and noticeably"</li><li class="whitespace-normal break-words pl-2">Inflation to stay "significantly elevated" in coming months</li></ul><p>Consensus GDP growth in Q1 is expected at +0.2% q/q and the report is out April 30.</p><p>The Bundesbank is flagging that the real pain from the Middle East conflict is still ahead. Stagflation risks are building just as Berlin tries to cushion the blow on fuel prices. </p><p>It's all about Iran from here with global oil stockpiles continuing to draw down. The Axios report said Trump will give Iran another 3-5 days to come up with a coherent team to negotiate because leadership is fractured. It's not clear if that's true but it's another 3-5 days of 13 million barrels of oil missing from the global market. There is talk that Europe will run out of jet fuel in six weeks. That's going to be mitigated by short-haul flight cancellations in a sign of the kind of trade offs that are coming.</p><p>In Europe overall, business sentiment is souring and inflation expectations are rising. In Germany, Merz rolled out €1.6 billion in fuel-price relief and Merz says more measures ready if the situation escalates. </p><p>The euro is down 6 pips to 1.1735 today.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.