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US January NFIB small business optimism index 102.8 vs 104.6 expected

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 11:00 AM

<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-nfib-small-business-optimism-index-1051-vs-1017-expected-20250114/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Prior</a> was 105.1</li></ul><p>The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.3 points in January to 102.8. This is the third consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 14 points to 100 – the third highest recorded reading – after two months of decline (tariffs?)</p><p>NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: "overall, small business owners remain optimistic regarding future business conditions, but uncertainty is on the rise. Hiring challenges continue to frustrate Main Street owners as they struggle to find qualified workers to fill their many open positions. Meanwhile, fewer plan capital investments as they prepare for the months ahead." </p> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

US vice president Vance: US laws will keep big tech on a level playing field

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 9:49 AM

<ul><li>Will work to ensure that American AI is the gold standard</li><li>Trump administration will ensure that most powerful AI systems are built in the US</li><li>US wants to partner with the world on AI as well</li><li>Excessive regulation could kill transformative AI industry</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">There's going to be a lot of conversation about inclusivity and open/shared access to AI data at the summit. But the main question is, will the US be on board with any of that? Most countries will also sign pledges on the above and also to tackle AI risks in general but I doubt Trump shares the idea about global governance in the AI space.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

FX continues to hold little changed on the session

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 9:38 AM

<p class="text-align-justify">The snapshot above shows the small changes and tight ranges that dollar pairs are holding so far today. The dollar is keeping steadier as a whole from yesterday, as traders are still digesting Trump's tariffs since the weekend. He announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum as expected but now we'll have to wait and see the details of his reciprocal tariffs. That announcement might come later today or perhaps tomorrow, according to the tariff man himself.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In other markets, equities are more guarded today with S&amp;P 500 futures seen down 0.3% after having gained yesterday. There's some trepidation amid the potential retaliation by other countries, should Trump follow through on reciprocal tariffs.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Meanwhile, the bond market is also seeing yields nudge back up for a fourth straight day. 10-year yields in the US are up 2 bps to 4.517% now, creeping back above the key technical neckline of 4.50% previously. A not-so-fast moment for bonds?</p><p class="text-align-justify">Elsewhere, we're also seeing gold pare gains on the day to $2,908 now as the upside run loses a bit of steam. The high earlier in the day touched $2,942 before a quick plummet to $2,905 in Asia trading. The precious metal hovered around $2,915-20 levels after but is now creeping lower again on the session.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The main events will all be in US trading later. Broader markets will be watching out for more Trump tariff headlines as well as Fed chair Powell's testimony to Congress. Amid all of that, there will also be a switch in focus to US data again with the CPI report coming up tomorrow. So, just be wary of that.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

BOE's Mann says sided with 50 bps rate cut to "cut through the noise"

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 8:50 AM

<ul><li class="text-align-justify">As an activist policymaker, I chose 50 bps now, along with continued restrictiveness in the future, and a higher long-term bank rate to "cut through the noise"</li><li class="text-align-justify">Notwithstanding the 50 bps cut now, structural impediments to achieve inflation target on a sustained basis are not yet fully purged</li><li class="text-align-justify">Current and likely continued weak demand conditions will lead to further loosening of the labour market</li><li class="text-align-justify">I am at the higher end of the 3% to 3.50% range of estimate for long run equilibrium on the bank rate</li><li class="text-align-justify">Need to maintain policy rate discipline and restrictiveness even after this immediate voting decision</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">Mann is trying to clarify that even if she did side with a 50 bps move last week <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-cuts-bank-rate-by-25-bps-to-450-as-expected-20250206/" target="_blank" rel="follow">here</a>, she's still somewhat hawkish about policy in the bigger picture. It's a tough sell in my view. Actions speak louder than words. It feels rather convoluted at best when trying to make sense of her remarks above.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

EU trade commissioner says US will be taxing its own citizens by imposing tariffs

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 8:29 AM

<ul><li>Tariffs are taxes</li><li>They are bad for business and worse for consumers</li><li>US will be taxing its own citizens by imposing tariffs</li><li>It will raise costs for its own businesses and fuel inflation</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">He's not wrong there as households will be the ones feeling the pinch in all of this. Higher tariffs means higher prices for imported goods and it just means consumers having to pay for that or the already higher prices for domestic goods.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

EU trade commissioner says will act to safeguard economic interests amid Trump tariffs

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 8:16 AM

<ul><li>Deeply regrets tariffs by Trump administration</li><li>Latest tariffs are a lose-lose scenario</li><li>Trade thrives on predictability and fair rules</li><li>EU prepared to face up to any challenges in this new era</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">Meanwhile, von der Leyen is also out saying that "unjustified tariffs on the EU will not go unanswered". Adding that the EU will trigger "firm and proportionate" countermeasures in response.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

What are the main events for today?

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 7:38 AM

<p>It's going to be another dull day in terms of data releases with just the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index on the agenda. The focus will be on Fed Chair Powell Testimony and a potential announcement of reciprocal tariffs by Trump (today or tomorrow). </p><p>Fed Chair Powell is unlikely to offer anything new since the last FOMC press conference and will likely stick to his usual neutral stance. The focus is on inflation progress, so the CPI tomorrow remains the main event of the week (and of course Trump's tariffs).</p><p>Central bank speakers:</p><ul><li>08:45 GMT - BoE's Mann (dove - voter)</li><li>12:15 GMT/07:15 ET - BoE's Bailey (neutral - voter)</li><li>13:50 GMT/08:50 ET - Fed's Hammack (hawk - non voter)</li><li>15:00 GMT/10:00 ET - Fed Chair Powell (neutral - voter)</li><li>17:00 GMT/12:00 ET - ECB's Schnabel (neutral - voter)</li><li>20:30 GMT/15:30 ET - Fed's Bowman (hawk - voter)</li><li>20:30 GMT/15:30 ET - Fed's Williams (neutral - voter)</li></ul> This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx futures -0.1% in early European trading

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 7:08 AM

<ul><li>German DAX futures -0.1%</li><li>UK FTSE futures -0.1%</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">The market mood is a little more subdued on the day, with S&amp;P 500 futures also seen down 0.3%. It's still early and the focus right now will be on Trump's supposed reciprocal tariffs after the metal tariffs announced overnight.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Europe should respond in a united manner to Trump's tariffs, says French industry minister

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 6:51 AM

<ul><li>Trump's latest tariff measures could have impact on French industry</li><li>Europe should respond in a united and firm manner to Trump's tariffs</li><li>Hopes that the response will happen soon</li></ul><p class="text-align-justify">Any retaliation should likely come after Trump enacts reciprocal tariffs, if it happens. But on metal tariffs, Germany will be the one to feel the pinch the most as they are the fourth largest exporter of steel and ninth largest exporter of aluminum to the US.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Reciprocal tariffs.. Yay or nay?

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 6:22 AM

<p class="text-align-justify">"If they charge us, we charge them."</p><p class="text-align-justify">That is the premise that Trump is going with in wanting to impose reciprocal tariffs, in particular the US' main trading partners with those that have "relatively large trade deficits with the US and apply relatively high tariffs".</p><p class="text-align-justify">The 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum was largely anticipated to go through, as it doesn't require another investigation. He already did that back in 2017. But again, there's still some time to negotiate exemptions as the tariffs will only go into effect on 4 March.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In this thread, let's focus on reciprocal tariffs though. Trump has touted he will make an announcement on this either later today or tomorrow.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The details remain scarce and it's not even a certainty that he can push this through without any hiccups domestically. Adam had laid out a good scenario last week <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/a-best-guess-on-whats-really-happening-with-the-trump-reciprocal-tariff-headlines-20250207/" target="_blank" rel="follow">here</a>.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Trump does have power to negotiate changes to US trade policy but it isn't limitless. I would assume Congress will need to step in on a matter as big as this one but we'll have to see what the White House has to say first as well.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The easiest proclamation is to label it under the premise of a threat to "national security", as he did with steel and aluminum tariffs. But it's not going to fly on this surely as it involves all trade with so many countries.</p><p class="text-align-justify">There's a case to be made for singling out the likes of China, Canada, and Mexico perhaps. But "national security" on reciprocal tariffs in general? It's a tough sell.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Besides that, logistically it will be an absolute nightmare to get all of this done quickly.</p><p class="text-align-justify">The other point in all this is that reciprocal tariffs also targets a lot of key US allies and they will be hit hard. The likes of Japan, India, and South Korea especially will be dealing with a tough change in trade environment.</p><p class="text-align-justify">So, does reciprocity also mean lowering tariffs altogether? Or is Trump just going to stick with tariff increases to make it fair game?</p><p class="text-align-justify">And what about the reaction after? The EU certainly won't be shy in retaliating and I figure Canada and China will also issue quick responses to any stunts that Trump is looking to pull here.</p><p class="text-align-justify">For now though, markets are evidently not all too frightened. Wall Street extended gains in trading yesterday, even if US futures might be a little lower today. The dollar is steady but not really seeing standout gains to start the new week. As for the bond market, there is some selling which saw 10-year yields creep back up to near 4.50%. So, that will be one to watch in case of anything.</p><p class="text-align-justify">But at the balance, the fear gauge among broader markets is not as high as one would think. At least not when compared to the level of uncertainty and alarm before Trump's inauguration last month.</p><p class="text-align-justify">This suggests that traders are learning from their lesson in the past two weeks. Trump wants to make a show of all of this and go big in the opening salvo. Things will then get watered down before a promise of negotiations, with a chance for him to eventually claim that he has made "the biggest and best trade deal ever" for the US. We've seen this before.</p><p class="text-align-justify">But even so, there's still the risk of him going off the rails before pulling back. That's something markets need to be wary about and not being too complacent. The reciprocal tariff headlines and the retaliation could well still hit risk trades hard in the next few days. But at this stage, this looks to be a market that is trying hard to sniff out any bluffs or watered down approach to turn sentiment around.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In other words, it's going to be tough to keep risk trades down for long unless Trump is really promising trade wars for longer. However, as long as there's room to talk, market players are likely to look at all of this with a glass half full approach instead. So, we'll see what the headlines will bring in the next few days.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Another quiet one on the agenda in Europe today

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 5:06 AM

<p class="text-align-justify">Major currencies are little changed, with the dollar keeping steadier in general as Trump pushes forward with steel and aluminum tariffs. The 25% tariffs tears apart all existing deals and will go into effect on 4 March. But with a month to go, is there really going to be no exceptions? The market response has been relatively calm I would say.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Dollar pairs are little changed in general, keeping in narrower ranges still ahead of European trading. Meanwhile, S&amp;P 500 futures are down 0.2% but it comes after a modest rise yesterday. The standout in all of this continues to be gold, which is up another 0.3% to $2,915 now but well off its earlier high of $2,942.</p><p class="text-align-justify">As we look towards European morning trade, it'll likely be a slower one with Trump headlines set to take a breather again. That said, just be wary that US vice president Vance will be in Paris and meeting up with China and the EU on the sidelines of the AI summit. That might offer up some headlines in the session ahead.</p><p class="text-align-justify">Besides that, there won't be much to really get markets jumping in Europe. For the day ahead, eyes will be on more Trump headlines and Fed chair Powell's testimony to Congress. On the latter, we should be getting the excerpts of his speech a short while before the actual testimony begins at 1500 GMT.</p><p class="text-align-justify">1100 GMT - US January NFIB small business optimism index</p><p class="text-align-justify">That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Trump reaffirms steel and aluminum tariffs are on the basis of national security

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 4:26 AM

<p class="text-align-justify">Up until the 2000s, the US was the biggest producer of aluminum globally but since then it's all about China. For some context, the US now produces nearly ten times less than what China is doing. And in terms of imports, the US roughly imports 50% of its aluminum from other countries as of the last few years.</p><p class="text-align-justify">In the case of steel, it's a similar story with China being the runaway leader in terms of production ever since the year 2000. But at least the US still ranks fourth on the list in this category - just behind Japan and India as well.</p> This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump steel, aluminium tariffs, no exceptions, USD up

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 3:43 AM

<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/economic-outlook-federal-reserve-presidents-speak-at-kentucky-and-new-york-events-20250211/">Economic Outlook: Federal Reserve Presidents Speak at Kentucky and New York Events</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forecasts-for-us-january-inflation-cpi-headline-and-core-from-17-investment-banks-20250211/">Forecasts for US January inflation (CPI headline and core) from 17 investment banks</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-england-governor-bailey-is-speaking-on-tuesday-20250211/">Bank of England Governor Bailey is speaking on Tuesday</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-england-monetary-policy-committee-member-mann-is-speaking-again-later-on-tuesday-20250211/">Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann is speaking again later on Tuesday</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fed-expected-to-delay-rate-cuts-as-inflation-risks-rise-economists-say-reuters-poll-20250211/">Fed expected to delay rate cuts as inflation risks rise, economists say (Reuters poll)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/two-jets-collided-on-the-runway-at-scottsdale-airport-in-arizona-at-least-one-dead-20250211/">Two jets collided on the runway at Scottsdale Airport in Arizona - at least one dead</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-for-today-at-71716-vs-estimate-at-73067-20250211/">PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1716 (vs. estimate at 7.3067)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-promises-response-will-be-clear-and-calibrated-on-us-steel-aluminium-tariffs-20250211/">Canada promises response will be "clear and calibrated" on US steel, aluminium tariffs</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-threatens-let-hell-break-out-if-hamas-doesnt-free-all-hostages-by-midday-saturday-20250211/">Trump threatens "let hell break out" if Hamas doesn't free all hostages by midday Saturday</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-brc-like-for-like-retail-sales-january-25-yy-prior-31-20250211/">UK BRC Like-for-like Retail Sales (January) +2.5% y/y Prior +3.1%)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australia-january-business-confidence-4-prior-2-20250211/">Australia January business confidence +4 (prior -2)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/new-zealands-finance-minister-willis-says-nz-has-a-warm-relationship-with-the-us-20250211/">New Zealand's finance minister Willis says NZ has a warm relationship with the US</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-mann-says-uk-inflation-is-less-of-a-threat-prices-coming-close-to-2-target-20250211/">BoE's Mann says UK inflation is less of a threat, prices coming close to 2% target</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/deutsche-bank-forecasts-softer-headline-us-cpi-but-core-inflation-to-pick-up-20250210/">Deutsche Bank forecasts softer headline US CPI, but core inflation to pick up</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-dollar-losing-a-few-tics-now-as-tariff-reality-bites-20250210/">Australian dollar losing a few tics now as (tariff) reality bites</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australia-february-consumer-sentiment-01-prior-07-20250210/">Australia February Consumer Sentiment +0.1% (prior -0.7%)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-cancelled-deals-with-allies-eu-uk-japan-australia-others-no-exception-tariffs-20250210/">Trump cancelled deals with allies EU, UK, Japan, Australia, others - no exception tariffs</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/key-take-away-trumps-25-steel-and-aluminium-tariffs-no-exemptions-or-exceptions-20250210/">Key take away - Trump's 25% steel and aluminium tariffs - NO EXEMPTIONS or EXCEPTIONS</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/is-mcd-stock-a-buy-20250210/">Is MCD Stock a Buy?</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/white-house-says-25-steel-tariffs-will-apply-to-all-countries-20250210/">White House says 25% steel tariffs will apply to all countries</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-last-time-trump-proposed-tariffs-on-australian-steel-and-aluminium-he-backed-down-20250210/">The last time Trump proposed tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium he backed down</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-agreed-to-consider-an-exemption-for-australian-steel-tariffs-20250210/">Trump agreed to consider an exemption for Australian steel tariffs</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-and-australian-pm-albanese-have-spoken-probably-on-steel-tariffs-20250210/">Trump and Australian PM Albanese have spoken (probably on steel tariffs)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-gold-hits-another-record-high-20250210/">Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Gold hits another record high</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-to-shrug-off-trump-steel-and-aluminium-tariffs-eurusd-forecast-to-108-20250210/">Eurozone to shrug off Trump steel and aluminium tariffs? EUR/USD forecast to 1.08</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-home-price-cuts-are-at-the-highest-in-over-a-decade-20250210/">US home price cuts are at the highest in over a decade</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trade-ideas-thread-tuesday-11-february-insightful-charts-technical-analysis-ideas-20250210/">Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 11 February, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas</a></li></ul><p class="western"> Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 25% ‘without exceptions or exemptions’. They’ll take effect on March 4 (so, still time for him to change his mind). </p><p class="western">The USD responded in a slow manner, rising over the course of the session, not by too much.</p><p class="western">EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP, JPY and CHF are all lower.</p><p class="western">The situation for the Australian dollar was confusing. Australian Prime Minister Albanese said Trump is considering an exemption for Australia. Minutes later we had Trump shouting ‘no exceptions or exemptions’. Minutes after that we had Trump conceding he was considering an exemption for Australia. </p><p class="western">You’d think AUD would have swung around on all this headline ping-pong. It did, but in a small range only. Tiny really. As the session progressed and some risk was taken off the table the AUD slid a little further. </p><p class="western">On the data front later we had an improvement for Australian business confidence, turning a little positive in January at +4, from -2 in December. Business conditions slipped from December (to +3 from +6).</p><p class="western">Back to Trump’s tariffs, Canada’s industry minister said the tariffs are "totally unjustified”, that he is consulting with international partners on them, and that Canada's response will be "clear and calibrated." Canada is a major exporter of steel to the US. </p><p class="western">Catherine Mann, a Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member, was reported in the Financial Times as saying she sees firms struggling to increase prices now as consumers trim their spending, You’ll recall that at last week’s meeting the normally more hawkish Mann pivoted to a dovish dissent, wanting to cut the Bank rate by 50bp instead of the 25bp that was decided upon. Mann is speaking twice in the sessions to come today. </p><p class="western">Gold hit a record high above USD2940, up over 1%. It then dropped back, shedding USD30 in rapid time. I didn’t see any news-type catalyst. </p><p class="western">Trump warned that if Hamas does not release all Israeli hostages by midday Saturday, he will push to cancel the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and allow military action to resume. "If all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock, I’d say cancel it and all bets are off—let hell break out".</p><p>Gold:</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Forecasts for US January inflation (CPI headline and core) from 17 investment banks

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 2:55 AM

<p>Via Nick Timiraos at the Wall Street Journal, collecting estimates:</p><p>If the consensus proves correct this is on the money:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fed-expected-to-delay-rate-cuts-as-inflation-risks-rise-economists-say-reuters-poll-20250211/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Fed expected to delay rate cuts as inflation risks rise, economists say (Reuters poll)</a></li></ul><p>Funny thing is, I guess, that the folksin that Reuters poll are include the folks in the above table. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold .... gulp .... drops $30 in quick time

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 2:41 AM

<p>Gold hit a record high above USD 2940.</p><p>It hasn't held there:</p><p>There is no fresh news. </p><p>Like, has everyone just realized its an expensive paperweight? (Gold bugs, I'm sorry, only joking) </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Spot gold to a record high above USD 2935

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 2:01 AM

<p>The uptrend remains in place for gold, jumping nearly 1% today:</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Two jets collided on the runway at Scottsdale Airport in Arizona - at least one dead

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 1:31 AM

<p>Another day, another life lost in a US aviation incident. </p><p>Video of the collision is here:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.azfamily.com/2025/02/10/least-1-dead-after-jets-collide-scottsdale-airport-sources-say/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">officials say it appears the left main landing gear failed upon landing, causing the collision</a></li></ul><p>Update:</p><ul><li> Mötley Crüe singer Vince Neil was not on board his plane when it crashed</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Canada promises response will be "clear and calibrated" on US steel, aluminium tariffs

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 1:12 AM

<p>Canada's industry minister says U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum are "totally unjustified." </p><ul><li>says he is consulting with international partners on the US steel and aluminum tariffs and that Canada's response will be "clear and calibrated."</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump threatens "let hell break out" if Hamas doesn't free all hostages by midday Saturday

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 12:58 AM

<p>Trump threatens to cancel ceasefire if Hamas does not release all hostages:</p><ul><li>Trump has warned that if Hamas does not release all Israeli hostages by midday Saturday, he will push to cancel the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and allow military action to resume</li><li>"If all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock, I’d say cancel it and all bets are off—let hell break out" </li><li>also suggested withholding aid to Jordan and Egypt if they refuse to accept Palestinian refugees displaced from Gaza.</li></ul><p>The fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire brokered last month is now under threat. Hamas announced on Monday that it would stop releasing hostages, accusing Israel of violating the agreement. With rising tensions and Trump’s ultimatum, the possibility of renewed military action in Gaza looms large.</p><p>Oil markets are sensitive to developments in the Minddle East. </p><p>Oil rose on Monday:</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UK BRC Like-for-like Retail Sales (January) +2.5% y/y Prior +3.1%)

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 12:51 AM

<p>Earlier re the UK:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-mann-says-uk-inflation-is-less-of-a-threat-prices-coming-close-to-2-target-20250211/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">BoE's Mann says UK inflation is less of a threat, prices coming close to 2% target</a></li></ul><p>***</p><p>British Retail Consortium (BRC) data for January 2025:Like for like sales +2.5% y/y</p><ul><li>prior +3.1%</li></ul><p>Total sales +2.6% y/y, partly inflated by weak year-ago data and a December boost from Black Friday timing differences.</p><ul><li>12 month average is 0.8%</li></ul><p>BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson:</p><ul><li>January a solid month for retail</li><li>stormy weather temporarily impacted demand</li></ul><p>With retailers bracing for £7 billion in extra costs:</p><ul><li>due to higher social security contributions, a rising minimum wage, and a new packaging levy,</li></ul><p>Dickinson warned.</p><ul><li> “Many businesses will have little choicee but to raise prices and cut investment in jobs and stores” </li></ul><p>Barclays recorded a 1.9% increase in consumer spending, the strongest since March, despite a decline in consumer confidence to its lowest level since the bank began tracking it in April.</p><p>***</p><p>BRC like-for-like sales is a metric reported by the British Retail Consortium to measure changes in retail sales, excluding the impact of new store openings or closures.</p><ul><li>It reflects sales performance only from stores that have been open for at least a year, providing a clearer view of underlying trends in consumer spending without distortions from changes in retail floorspace. This metric is widely used to assess how well retailers are performing in comparable, established locations, making it a reliable indicator of real growth or decline in sales.</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia January business confidence +4 (prior -2)

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 12:30 AM

<p>National Australia Bank business survey, for January 2025:</p><p>Business Confidence +4, improved on expectations of lower interest rates</p><ul><li>prior -2.0</li></ul><p>Business Conditions +3</p><ul><li>prior 6.0</li><li> sales (down 4 to 6) and profits (down 6 to -2) declined</li><li>margin pressures, particularly in retail</li><li>Alan Oster, NAB’s chief economist says “Cost pressures remain high for businesses, but they aren’t fully passing them on to consumers, which is weighing on profitability and overall business conditions”</li></ul><p>**</p><p>The survey provided conflicting signals on inflation:</p><ul><li>Labour costs accelerated to a quarterly pace of 1.8%.</li><li>Purchase cost growth slowed to 1.1%.</li><li>Retail prices rose at a 0.9% quarterly pace, up from 0.7% in December.</li></ul><p>Meanwhile, capacity utilisation fell to 82.0% from 82.7%, indicating slightly more slack in the economy.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand's finance minister Willis says NZ has a warm relationship with the US

Tue, Feb 11, 2025 12:19 AM

<p>So far any relationship hasn't counted for much:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-cancelled-deals-with-allies-eu-uk-japan-australia-others-no-exception-tariffs-20250210/" target="_self" class="article-link article-link">Trump cancelled deals with allies EU, UK, Japan, Australia, others - no exception tariffs</a></li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/key-take-away-trumps-25-steel-and-aluminium-tariffs-no-exemptions-or-exceptions-20250210/" target="_self" class="article-link article-link article-link">Key take away - Trump's 25% steel and aluminium tariffs - NO EXEMPTIONS or EXCEPTIONS</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/white-house-says-25-steel-tariffs-will-apply-to-all-countries-20250210/" target="_self" class="article-link article-link article-link">White House says 25% steel tariffs will apply to all countries</a></li></ul><p>March 4 is the date due for the imposition of these tariffs. Let's see if there is any change ahead of that. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Deutsche Bank forecasts softer headline US CPI, but core inflation to pick up

Mon, Feb 10, 2025 11:54 PM

<p>The US data is due on Wednesday, February 12, 2025 for CPI and Thursday for PPI. </p><ul><li>both at 8.30 am US Eastern time (0130 GMT)</li></ul><p>Deutsche Bank forecasts softer headline CPI, but core inflation to pick up </p><ul><li> Deutsche Bank economists expect U.S. consumer price growth to slow in January, with headline CPI rising 0.22% month-over-month, down from 0.4% in December. </li><li>However, they anticipate core CPI, which excludes food and energy, to accelerate to 0.28% from 0.2% in the previous month, signaling persistent underlying inflation pressures.</li><li> Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) report, set for release on Thursday, is expected to show monthly price growth holding steady at 0.2%, according to the bank’s forecast.</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian dollar losing a few tics now as (tariff) reality bites

Mon, Feb 10, 2025 11:37 PM

<p>Tarriff news is not encouraging:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-cancelled-deals-with-allies-eu-uk-japan-australia-others-no-exception-tariffs-20250210/" target="_self" class="article-link">Trump cancelled deals with allies EU, UK, Japan, Australia, others - no exception tariffs</a></li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/key-take-away-trumps-25-steel-and-aluminium-tariffs-no-exemptions-or-exceptions-20250210/" target="_self" class="article-link article-link">Key take away - Trump's 25% steel and aluminium tariffs - NO EXEMPTIONS or EXCEPTIONS</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/white-house-says-25-steel-tariffs-will-apply-to-all-countries-20250210/" target="_self" class="article-link article-link">White House says 25% steel tariffs will apply to all countries</a></li></ul><p>The USD is inching a little higher, AUD/USD as an example:</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia February Consumer Sentiment +0.1% (prior -0.7%)

Mon, Feb 10, 2025 11:34 PM

<p>Australia February Consumer Sentiment </p><p> +0.1% to 92.2</p><ul><li>prior -0.7% (92.1)</li></ul><p>Westpac monthly survey.</p><p>Wait until the headlines hit the mass media in Australia about Trump's 'no exemption' steel and aluminium tariffs. Australian media are very keen to stir up panic. </p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-cancelled-deals-with-allies-eu-uk-japan-australia-others-no-exception-tariffs-20250210/" target="_self">Trump cancelled deals with allies EU, UK, Japan, Australia, others - no exception tariffs</a></li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/key-take-away-trumps-25-steel-and-aluminium-tariffs-no-exemptions-or-exceptions-20250210/" target="_self" class="article-link">Key take away - Trump's 25% steel and aluminium tariffs - NO EXEMPTIONS or EXCEPTIONS</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/white-house-says-25-steel-tariffs-will-apply-to-all-countries-20250210/" target="_self" class="article-link">White House says 25% steel tariffs will apply to all countries</a></li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.