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Oil is back to March levels, down more than 6% today

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 5:13 PM

Swift drop in oil prices There's a line of thinking that oil demand won't be hit hard by the new variant. According to Capital One, the impact of delta in Q3 was about a 410,000 barrel per day dip in global  demand.

European equity close: Early heavy losses mostly erased

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 4:37 PM

Closing changes for the main indexes The early gaps lower on the comments from the Moderna CEO mostly closed and losses were modest. The FTSE 100 opened lower and then continued to fall in the first hour of trading. From there

US November consumer confidence 109.5 vs 111.0 expected

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 3:00 PM

US November consumer confidence data from the Conference Board This survey was from prior to omicron so I'd expect to see a drop next month.

US dollar slides as Treasury yields fall

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 2:51 PM

US dollar under pressure US 10-year yields are down 10 basis points today with the entire curve moving down. It reflects fear about the new covid variant after the comments from Moderna's CEO saying the vaccine might not be effective.

What the data is saying: Covid cases in South Africa's omicron epicenter fell again today

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 2:13 PM

Forget the talking heads, follow the data Everyone pretends like they're researching and following the data but when the CEO of Moderna speculates on vaccine ineffectiveness, everyone abandons the data and clings to authority.

US Sept Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +19.1% y/y vs +19.3% expected

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 2:01 PM

Case-Shiller home price data

US Sept FHFA house price index +17.7% y/y vs +18.5% prior

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 2:00 PM

Home price data from the US mortgage regulator

OPEC November oil output rose 220K bpd

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 1:57 PM

Reuters secondary sources survey Saudi Arabia and Iraq boosted output in line with the agreement along with Kuwait, the UAE and Algeria. Output fell in Libya due to pipeline maintenance while it fell in Angola to a record low, perhaps owing to tanker schedules.

Canada Q3 GDP +5.4% vs +2.5% expected

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 1:30 PM

Canadian GDP data for the third quarter Consumer spending roared in the quarter while inventories trimmed 0.74 pp from GDP. I suspect that will be unwinding in the quarters ahead as companies re-stock following the drawdown due to supply chain

Canadian GDP and Fedspeak headline the economic calendar

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 1:11 PM

What's coming up The mood is sour today after Moderna's CEO : said "I think it's going to be a material drop. I just don't know how much because we need to wait for the data. But all the scientists I've talked to... are like, 'This is not going to be good'." To be fair, he said much of the same thing

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Risk shudders on vaccine efficacy doubts

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 12:41 PM

Forex news from the European trading session - 30 November 2021 Headlines: Markets: - EUR leads, CAD lags on the day - European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.8%

COVID-19 antibody drugs not as effective against omicron variant, preliminary tests show

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 11:10 AM

Regeneron and Lilly antibody drug cocktails reportedly lose effectiveness against the omicron variant This according to a WSJ report, with Regeneron saying that its COVID-19 antibody drug cocktail was found to lose effectiveness against omicron based on preliminary tests. Adding that perhaps there needs to be a modification if the new strain becomes widespread.

Eurozone November preliminary CPI +4.9% vs +4.5% y/y expected

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 10:00 AM

Latest data released by Eurostat - 30 November 2021 However, services inflation and non-energy industrial goods inflation were both also seen above the 2% mark. That suggests that the rise in underlying price pressures is quite broad as well. Just something to be wary about.

Money markets push back on Fed rate hike expectations

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 9:34 AM

A full 25 bps rate hike now seen in September 2022 That compares to last week when a 25 bps rate hike was priced in for July 2022 instead. As mentioned , this is arguably one reason why the euro is managing to take in some comfort against the dollar since Friday.

Germany November unemployment change -34k vs -20k expected

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 8:55 AM

Latest data released by the Federal Employment Agency - 30 November 2021 This just reaffirms that the trend is improving as a whole but more time is needed to gauge actual underlying conditions as support measures are phased out.

Italy Q3 final GDP +2.6% vs +2.6% q/q prelim

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 8:12 AM

Latest data released by Istat - 30 November 2021 Slight delay in the release by the source. The preliminary report can be found . No change to the initial estimates, reaffirming a modest pick up in activity in the last quarter. That said, all that is out the window now with the threat of omicron.

European equities off to a rough start as risk sentiment keeps more defensive

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 8:07 AM

The Stoxx 600 index is at its lowest in nearly 7 weeks After a decent showing yesterday, we're back to the jittery mood from Friday after Moderna's CEO commented earlier that vaccines may be significantly less effective against the omicron variant (in case you missed it ).

Switzerland November KOF leading indicator index 108.5 vs 109.0 expected

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 8:02 AM

Latest data released by KOF - 30 November 2021

France November preliminary HICP +3.4% vs +3.2% y/y prior

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 7:45 AM

Latest data released by INSEE - 30 November 2021

France Q3 final GDP +3.0% vs +3.0% q/q prelim

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 7:45 AM

Latest data released by INSEE - 30 November 2021 here

China health official says that about 20% of people aged 60 and above have not been vaccinated yet

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 7:32 AM

An update to the COVID-19 status in China China is still working its way towards getting almost the entire population vaccinated, with the health official confirming that roughly 1.1 billion people have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of yesterday.

Japan total spending for the next fiscal year to hit a record high

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 7:08 AM

Based on the draft budget, according to Kyodo News The total spending is likely to exceed ¥107 trillion, which would be a record high. That comes as no surprise after Kishida unveiled a whopping ¥79 trillion stimulus package earlier this month in order to combat the pandemic impact.

Japan confirms first case of omicron variant

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 6:38 AM

Kyodo News reports on the matter The case above relates to a man in his 30s that have arrived from Namibia. The question now is whether or not omicron has been actively circulating long enough to see a major spike in infections (that is yet undetected maybe).

Omicron virus

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 6:32 AM

What we know The Omicron variant has 30 changes to it including a small insertion in the spike protein and three small deletions. Around 50% of these changes are in the receptor binding domain - this is the part of the spike protein use to bind to human ACE-2, which is the enzyme the coronavirus targets

Trade ideas thread - European session 30 November 2021

Tue, Nov 30, 2021 6:23 AM

Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts But keep in mind that there are still plenty of uncertainties with regards to the omicron variant, so while markets are leaning to be heavily risk averse, things may not turn out so bad once we get more clarity in a few weeks' time.